You might notice that we spend a lot of time here talking about some of the most boring, worst teams in the league. And there’s a reason for that. The worst teams are usually shaking up their lineups, suffering from injuries, or changing strategies. They’re the ones you want to keep your eye on, because new stat-stuffers can emerge, with new possible pickups on your waiver wire. The good teams, they stick with what’s working, and what we said about them a few weeks ago probably hasn’t changed much. So on with the saga of the worst teams in basketball.

New Orleans Hornets

“Even the worst teams in basketball will score a good 70 or 80 points per game. ”
- Me, 11/15/04

” Even the most pitiful of teams will score at least 80 points a night.”
- Basketblog Cohort, 11/29/04

“Oh YEAH?”
- Byron Scott, Coach of New Orleans Hornets, 11/29/04

On Friday Night against the Phoenix Suns, the Hornets scored a respectable 47 points in the first half. Then, in the second half, center Jamaal Magloire went out with a broken finger. Without him for much of the second half, they scored only 39 points. Magloire is now out for up to 3 months with his finger problem. Since he went out, the Hornets have played 4 halves of basketball, and scored, successively, 42, 34, 39, and 28 points in those halves. They’ve shot 37%. Is there anything positive about this team? Not right now. David West is getting minutes, and is putting up numbers you would expect out of his teammate, PJ Brown. In his last 2 games he’s gotten a start and 38 mpg, and responded with 11.5/9, with very little else. Not much to get excited about, but if you need a much more pedestrian Zach Randolph, he might be your guy.

Atlanta Hawks

At least the Hawks are doing a decent amount of scoring, putting in about 88 points per game. Unfortunately, right now there are only two Hawks worth owning, Antoine Walker and Al Harrington. Walker has been about as good as advertised, getting 21/8/4 with not-too-bad FG%, abysmal FT% and 1.6 3’s and 1.3 steals. Harrington has been a little disappointing with only 16.9 points, horrible FT% (59%, well below his 72% career average), and 7.2 boards. The rest of the team, well, it’s hard to tell. It’s almost like a mini-Hubie Brown setup, with six players in no-man’s land territory, getting between 18 and 26 minutes per game.

There is one player to keep an eye on. Tony Delk missed the first few weeks of the season with a knee injury, but since returning his minutes have increased in every game, going up to 33 minutes on saturday against Charlotte. He could be a nice, cheap source of 3’s if you’re desperate, but this early in the season he’s going to hurt you too much anywhere else. If you find yourself in a bind for 3’s late in the year, though, he could be a nice pickup.

New Jersey Nets

Somebody get Richard Jefferson some help! After 13 games, the Nets are 2-11, and there are no signs of life in the Garden State. Jefferson is scoring and rebounding at career-high rates, but as predicted, with defenses keying on him, his FG% has plummeted down to 41.6%. He’s also not hitting his 3’s at all (a miserable 24%), or passing well (.2 fewer assists than a year ago). And no one is stepping up as a clear number two on this team. The second leading scorer is Alonzo Mourning, and let’s just hope they’re not looking for any more than the 10 ppg they’re getting from him right now. The only non-Jefferson player getting over 28 mpg is Eric Williams, and he’s not exactly blowing up right now.

The amazing thing about the Nets is how meddling their lineup is. There aren’t even any one-category helprs. Outside of Jefferson and Mourning, nobody averages 10 points, or 5 boards, or 2.5 assists, or 1 steal, or 1 block, or 1 3 pointer. While the other teams we’ve talked about today can at least help you here or there, the Nets have one player worth owning, one that is sorta borderline, and that’s it. Terrible.

When looking at the waiver wire, there are usually two ways to go. You can go for the player who just put up great numbers earlier in the night, and hope that he can continue his strong play. Often times this will be a player filling in for an injured teammate (Antonio McDyess and Darrell Armstrong come to mind) and they will certainly give you a nice shot in the arm. In the five games McDyess has started with Ben Wallace out, he has averaged a very hand 12.2 ppg, 10 rpg, 1 bpg on 49% shooting. For teams in need of a warm body, that’s quite a welcome sight. But then there are teams that drafted well and haven’t been hit by injuries. Those teams can afford to take more chances with the players they pick up. They aren’t looking to catch lightning in a bottle, but are looking instead for an underachiever with little value at the time, but has a good chance of having considerable value down the road. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at some Quick Fixes and some Long Termers.

Quick Fixes

Lee Nailon
Things just can’t get any worse for the Hornets. They lost Jamal Mashburn before the season started, lost Baron Davis just a couple of weeks in, and now they will be without their last remaining legitimate NBA starter, as Jamaal Magloire looks to be out for up to a month after breaking a finger. Who would have thought that the expansion team playing in Charlotte right now would be better than the team that recently left? But where there’s injury, there’s opportunity in fantasy land. Even the most pitiful of teams will score at least 80 points a night – the Nets have proven this in the early going. Darrell Armstrong and David Wesley will continue to do the bulk of the shooting and scoring and P.J. Brown may yet salvage some value. But Lee Nailon will get his chance as well. An afterthought signing, Nailon has always been a capable scorer throughout his career as his 7.5 ppg in just 16.8 mpg proves. This hasn’t kept him from being on five teams in the last three years, though, and now he’s back to the organization, if not the city, where he started. Before Sunday’s horrific 1-for-14 performance, Nailon had an impressive string of four games where he averaged 19.3 points, 6 boards and 1.8 assists. He won’t help much in the hustle categories or in 3s, but he is a career 47% shooter from the field and 78% from the line. Until Baron returns, except him to see big minutes and be one of the top scoring options. If you’re looking for a warm body, he’s pretty warm.

Kelvin Cato
Yes, really, Kelvin Cato. It’s for one reason and one reason only, and we all know what that is. After blocking at least three shots in the first four games of the season, Cato missed the next three games, but has returned to the starting lineup since then and is averaging a pretty healthy 28.6 mpg. You know you’re not getting any scoring from him, so he needs to be an asset in blocks and rebounds. To his credit, he’s averaging 7.4 boards and 2.4 blocks in those five games. As a bonus, he’s even snagged 7 steals in the last 3 contests. He’s still going to hurt more than he helps, but if you are in a bind for a center – which is often the case – he’s not a bad stop-gap.

Hedo Turkoglu
Let’s stick with the Magic. Hedo has never been one of my favorites; I never found a reason to like a guy who was supposedly a scorer but came into the season a career 41% shooter. He has certainly taken a liking to Orlando, though. When Cuttino Mobley went down, it was DeShawn Stevenson that stepped into his starting role, but it’s been Turkoglu that has been reaping the benefits. Mobley doesn’t appear to be improving and may be heading to the IL, meaning Turkoglu should keep his modest value for the time being. And it is just modest – despite his strong play, he still checks in only at #91 on the 15-day player rater. Still, that’s the equivalent of an 8th round pick in 12-team leagues, so there’s value there, especially for teams in need of 3s. The Magic backcourt remains crowded and Mobley will get his time when he comes back, but you might be able to squeeze another productive week or two out of Hedo.

Long Termers

Mike Dunleavy
The former Duke star and #3 overall pick is finding himself kicked to the curb quite a bit these days. It’s hard to blame owners, as he has still yet to fulfill his promise, and he endured a brutal three-game stretch recently where he averaged 3.3 points, 2.3 boards and 1.7 assists on 27% shooting. Still, there’s a reason for optimism. It seems like we say it about the Warriors every year, but soon they will realize they have no chance at anything this year and will want to see what Dunleavy can do. He offers that intriguing combination of long-range ability, passing savvy and size. His numbers last year – 11.7/5.9/2.9 with 1.3 3pg on 45% shooting – were not bad at all for a second year player. If he continues to show the improvement he did this year, he could end up being Keith Van Horn with a few more assists. A dozen games is too early to give up on him. His 20 point, 4 rebound, 3 assist, 2 block performance Sunday was reason enough for encouragement.

Nene Hilario
I’ll still use a last name when talking about him. He’s been another early-season disappointment, as he played 18 minutes in the season opener then missed the next 8 games and killed owners by not going on the IL. He has since returned, but hasn’t done much, as he is clearly still finding his legs. He has shot 4-for-19 in his four games and has averaged a meager 5 points and 2.3 boards. But it should be noted that the Nuggets had been struggling but have won 3 of the 4 games since he’s been back. And it should always be noted that if he is indeed healthy, the only thing keeping him from a starting job is Marcus Camby staying healthy. Camby did that last year, but has already missed two games this year, and it’s just a matter of time. As a center, Hilario doesn’t get as many blocks as you’d like, but he gets plenty of steals – he averaged 1.5 in just 30 mpg over his career. He’s also a career 52% shooter. He was probably being counted on to start for teams that have dumped him. If you’ve managed so far at center, he would be a fine person to stash away and reap the rewards later.

Samuel Dalembert
To tell you the truth, it’s hard for me to put him on here, as he has really shown less than nothing this year. But he’s a favorite, so I’ll make an exception. Marc Jackson has exceeded all expectations as the 76ers starter so far, and has done absolutely nothing to deserve to lose his starting spot. Besides AI, he’s been their most consistent scoring threat. Still, you have to think that Dalembert will make some noise before too long. One only needs to look at his performance against the Wizards on Friday to see why. In 23 minutes, the Haitian sensation scored 13 points, grabbed 6 boards and had 2 blocks and a steal. Of course, the next night he played only three minutes with an empty box score except for three fouls. He should absolutely not be in any starting lineups right now, which goes without saying. But if you remember his April of last year, where he averaged 12 and 12 with around 4 blocks, you know that the kid can play. Talent at center is always hard to find. If Dalembert is out there, you’re a believer and you have the space, take the chance.

This past weekend was a time to give thanks. And nobody was more thankful than owners of Pau Gasol and Jason Williams, because Memphis Grizzlies coach Hubie Brown decided to step down because of “health reasons.” Brown, as you probably know, was pretty much the Anti-Christ when it came to your fantasy team. Nobody on the Grizzlies averaged more than 30.6 minutes per game this year, severly damaging the value of all the team’s starters. Rumor has it that part of the reason Hubie left is because some people in the organization (i.e. Jerry West) didn’t really appreciate his splitting of the minutes. So now, with assistant coach Lionel Hollins in charge – temporarily, at least – the Grizzlies might be on their way to producing some serious fantasy contributors. Who’s affected? The following:

The Benefactors
Pau Gasol, F/C – It’s not like you’re going to find him on your waiver wire, but Gasol should start seeing closer to 38 mpg under the new regime, and could be a legit 20/10 guy now. Think Elton Brand, but with slightly fewer blocks.

Jason Williams, PG – An uptick in minutes (look for about 34 mpg as opposed to the 26 he’s currently getting), will mean increases in points, steals, assists, and 3’s.

Mike Miller, G/F – Before being traded to Memphis, in 2002, Miller enjoyed about 37 mpg in Orlando, scoring 16.5 ppg with 5.8 boards and 1.8 3’s. Look for a return to those kind of numbers, and grab him if he’s on your waiver wire.

The Losers
Lorenzen Wright, F/C – Matchups, schmatchups! The reason Wright has only gotten 1 start and 17 mpg over the last 2 games is that the new regime doesn’t like him. And neither do we.

Earl Watson, PG - Watson is the guy you always thought about when you needed assists. Well you don’t even have to think about it anymore. His minutes will drop from 20 to 12, and his value from minimal to none.

The Injured
Stromile Swift, F/C – Look out. The Fantasy Basketblog favorite is awesome. He’s gotten over 30 mpg 3 times this year, and averaged 19.3 points, 8 boards, and 2.3 blocks. If he gets 30 mpg once he returns from his eye injury (and we think he will, with the recent developments involving Lorenzen Wright), he’ll be averaging those kind of numbers, about 4th round value.

What would it look like? I’d guess the Top 20 would be something like this:

1. Kevin Garnett (MIN) – Undisputed #1 for the forseeable future.
2. Dirk Nowitzki (DAL) – Assuming his ankle is OK, he’s a 7-category force. You’d like to see a few more 3 pointers, but his FG% is up, so it’s a nice balance.
3. Kobe Bryant (LAL) - Gotta get that FG% up, though. He should pick up a few more assists as he starts to learn how to play with this essentially new team, as well.
4. Lebron James (CLE) - I’m a believer. The kid is awesome.
5. Andrei Kirilenko (UTH) – His 5.1 blocks are 64% higher than the next best in the league (Shaq’s 3.3). That’s the equivalent of someone grabbing 25 boards per game. Dominant.
6. Tracy McGrady (HOU) – T-Mac will get his scoring up, don’t worry. He’s taking 7 less shots per game, which is expected, but once he gets comfortable, he’ll start scoring more.
7. Tim Duncan (SAS) – I was surprised that I put him this low too, but the FT% problem is turning from an anomaly into a trend. Plus he gives you virtually no help in assists or 3’s. Yes he’s great, but he’s a plus in only 4 categories and a huge minus in another.
8. Shawn Marion (PHO) – His rebounds are way up, but his FT% is down a bit. He’s still an 8-category player, maybe the most complete one in the game behind LeBron.
9. Ray Allen (SEA) – He’s playing the best basketball of his life right now, but you’ve gotta assume he’ll come down a little bit.
10. Peja Stojakovic (SAC) – After a rough start, he’s started to pick it up, and is hitting 3.6 3’s per game over his last 5, with great FT% and decent all-around numbers.
11. Dwayne Wade (MIA) – I’m still worried about random injuries. He’s already had one this year, but you can’t ignore this kid’s ability to fill up a box score. Surprisingly small amount of 3’s from the guard spot, but his FG% (an amazing 52.6%) is probably a result of that.
12. Paul Pierce (BOS) – A solid pick this late. In fact, I probably shoulda put him about 3 spots earlier than I did. Sorry Paul, I guess you slipped just like in your real NBA draft.
13. Amare Stoudamire (PHO) – Wow. Just, wow. 28/9 with 1.8 blocks and a 59.3% FG%? Just, wow. Stupid Kwame.
14. Steve Nash (PHO) – This is a tough read. He’s definitely playing over his head right now, but how much over? And how long will it last? All I know is, this make 3 Suns in the top 14, which says something about that team.
15. Stephon Marbury (NYK) – He just keeps doing what he does. Assists, 3’s, steals, points … nothing like consistency.
16. Chauncey Billups (DET) – It’s amazing what shooting 48% instead of 39% from the field will do for ya. I’d like to see a few more assists from my 2nd-round PG, though.
17. Elton Brand (LAC) - His stats are down across the board, if only by a bit. The biggest concern for me is the blocks, which has slipped to 1.7, and was his biggest source of value the last few years.
18. Steve Francis (ORL) – He’s baaaaaack. A triple-double threat with nice steals and ok percentages for a PG, he seems to be enjoying basketball again. But for how long?
19. Ben Wallace (DET) – He’s becoming much more involved in the offense, but his blocks and boards are taking a slight hit. Don’t forget what you’re here for, Mr. Wallace.
20. Allen Iverson (PHI) - With a pretty smooth (thus far) transition to PG, Allen is as valuable as ever to your fantasy team.

It’s always good to be scouring your league’s free agent list. Check it every day. Even if you think your roster is set, that every player you have – even those on your bench – is worthy of being there, you need to keep up on things? Why? Well, for one, if you see a player you like, even if you don’t have room for him now, if you can try to work out a trade that gives you an extra roster spot to play with. This can help you upgrade your team in general and find space on your team for a high upside player off the free agent list. So who are some of the top names that might be available? My league is a pretty standard 12×12 league. Pretty deep, but there are always some people to track.

Ben Gordon
Chances are good that the #3 overall pick from this year’s draft is there if you want him. Think about that. Sure, not all drafts are created equal, and we all know by now that last year’s draft is looking like a once-in-a-generation event. But still, we know who the third pick in last year’s draft was. That’s not to say that Gordon is going to be anything close to Carmelo, but you just can’t ignore the fact that during the summer, he was the consensus pick for rookie of the year. Granted, once he actually set foot on the court in the pre-season, people started jumping off the bandwagon, and they haven’t stopped yet.

But there’s reason to be interested. First off, the Bulls are still winless, and that means that coach Scott Skiles is going to keep trying every different combination until he comes up with something he likes. No one’s ever out of it in the Eastern Conference – the Heat recovered from a similar start last year to make the playoffs easily – but the longer things go without results, the more likely they are going to see if Gordon really can be a franchise centerpiece. He’s shown definite flashes over the last two games, where he has averaged the following: 34.5 mpg, 17.5 ppg, 3 rpg, 2 apg, 2 3pg, 1 spg. That’s not great, but it’s something. He has only five steals all year, and not a single block, which you can’t like at all. He’s shooting a disgusting 34%. But at least he’s shown he can score the last few games. At this point it doesn’t seem like he’ll be able to help out much in the other categories, but if he can work his way back to getting 30 mpg regularly, he could be a poor man’s version of Rip Hamilton. Don’t be afraid to take a chance on him. The Bulls are bound to turn it around at least a bit, and they really don’t have too many other options.

Jiri Welsch
In an attempt to bolster his bench, Doc Rivers took the interesting step of taking his second leading scorer, Ricky Davis, out of the starting lineup. As a Davis owner, I wasn’t too pleased with this, but then Ricky went and had his best game of the season, even with a few less minutes. So while it looks like Davis should still be able to maintain a good portion of his value, will Jiri Welsch, who gets the starting nod now, be able to have any? Welsch was always on the verge of having value last year, but was basically just a tease. He wasn’t receiving enough PT to even be a tease this year, but that’s probably back to where he’s being.

In his first game as a starter, Welsch played 26 minutes, his most PT since the season opener. He also had his most productive game of the season, shooting 4-of-6 from both the field and the line, giving him 12 points, while he also chipped in 8 boards, 2 assists and a steal. Nice numbers, but nothing spectacular. Where Welsch can help is 3s and steals. He averaged 0.9 3pg and 1.3 spg in 27 mpg last year, numbers that would look very nice with just a few more minutes. But now he’s just back to where he was. He’s worth keeping an eye on now that he’s starting, but if Davis remains effective and Welsch stays below 30 mpg, he won’t be of much use to you.

Marc Jackson
Here’s an intriguing one. While everyone in the world pegged Samuel Dalembert as the sleeper of all sleepers, Jim O’Brien shocked us all by naming Marc Jackson the starting center in Philly. We still figured that Dalembert would get his minutes and would soon take over the starting job, but then Dalembert got dinged up and Jackson has continued his strong play. His numbers aren’t spectacular, but are solid: 13 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.5 spg on 49% shooting. He has center eligibility, but he does not block shots at all, so he might not be the best person to plug in there, even knowing how thin the center ranks are.

Each time it looks like Dalembert is ready to take over, Jackson will pull out a game like Sunday’s, where he put in 21 and added 8 boards and 2 steals. It’s worth noting that Jackson certainly has talent. His rookie year in Golden State he averaged an impressive 13.2/7.5 on 47% shooting in 29 mpg. Injuries have seriously derailed him since then, as he’s been healthy only one of three years since then and the year he wasn’t hurt he was never able to make much of an impact with Minnesota. He’ll continue to be an injury risk, but right now he’s looking like the player that the 76ers and fantasy players were counting on Kenny Thomas to be. He has only 5 assists, 3 blocks and 0 3s on the season, so he is a black hole in those categories. But if you’re looking for a bench player to use as an injury fill in, he’s not a bad choice.

Greg Buckner
The Clemson product certainly turned heads with his 28-point outburst in Sunday’s blowout of the Mavs. With Voshon Lenard out and the Nuggets preferring to bring Earl Boykins off the bench, Buckner has started the last five games from the 2-spot. In addition to his 28 points, Buckner added 9 boards, 4 steals, 2 assists, 2 3s and hit 10-of-13 shots. That is an all-around great game. It’s hard to see it happening again, though. In the four games before that, Buckner scored a combined 17 points and never saw more than 29 minutes. The Nuggets still like using a Boykins/Miller backcourt in important situations, and Sunday’s game had precious few important situations, as the Nuggets rolled by 28, allowing Bzdelik to stay with Buckner and let him have his moment in the sun.

Buckner is a nice little player, as he is a career 46% shooter and has a 5.4 ppg average in 19 mpg. Not too shabby. On a team like the Bobcats or the post-Brawl Pacers, he might be able to have some value. But it’s just not going to happen on the Nuggets. There’s a reason he was behind Voshon Lenard, and there’s a reason Voshon Lenard probably wasn’t taken until the last round of your draft, if he was taken at all. And Lenard at least is a known 3-point marksman. Sometimes, one big game can be a signal of great things to come, but in this case, it’s not.

Vladimir Radmanovic
Fantasy owners like consistency. We like to check the box scores each night and know that we’ll see good numbers. Yes, we realize it’s not always the case, and that sometimes Kirk Hinrich will have 6 points and 2 assists, like he did last night, but for the most part, I know that he’ll usually give me a solid game. Radmanovic is the complete opposite. Night in and night out, you have no idea what to expect. So while the aggregate numbers might look nice, how he arrives at those will probably drive you too crazy to be worth it.

Radmanovic is fantasy-worthy for one reason and one reason only: three-pointers. He’s tied for 14th in the league in that category, which is obviously pretty good. There have been only two games this year where he hasn’t connected from long distance. But what else does he do? Absolutely nothing. Besides one anomalous 11-rebound game, he hasn’t grabbed more than five in any contest. Three assists is his season high, and that was only on one occasion. He has only 9 steals and 5 blocks on the year. His 11ppg and 40% shooting won’t help you either. So basically, if he’s not hitting 3s, he’s not doing anything for you. A game in which he hits one three-pointer, you’ll look at the box score and you won’t be too happy. About once a month he’ll have a game like he did on 11/16, where he connected from long range 6 times en route to 20 points. But if you have him active all the time, there will be a dozen other times during the month where you’ll check the box score and likely be disappointed.

My co-conspirator over here at the fictional Fantasy Basketblog headquarters has a list. It’s not actually written out. But it is burned into his brain, and it is with him at all times. It has a name, and a namesake. The namesake I remember. The actual name I can’t remember just yet. So, I will rename it. This list is:

“The Eddie Griffin Memorial Never-On-My-Team-Again List”

This list is comprised of fantasy players in a number of sports who tease you and tease you but never really play to their potential and end up just frustrating you and making you angry. The reason I bring up this list is that none other than Eddie Griffin himself is starting to gain some attention up in Minnesota. He’s racking up boards and 3’s and looking like he could be “back”, although he really was never here to begin with. But waiver-wire-buyers beware. He will NOT have a positive impact on your team this year. You are welcome to pick him up, and he’ll tease you with nice numbers here and there, but in the end he will just make fantasy basketball a miserable experience.

Of course, Eddie isn’t the only member of the Eddie Griffin Memorial Never-On-My-Team-Again List. Here are a few other candidates:

Michael Olowokandi (MIN) – Is the Kandi man the worst #1 overall pick of all time? He’s gunning for it. Fantasy players (and NBA teams) have learned their lesson at this point, it appears. Olowokandi always had promise as a center – he would routinely grab 8 boards and block over 1.5 shots per game. But only twice in his career has he averaged over 10 ppg, and one of those seasons he only played 36 games due to injury. When he headed to Minnesota last year, it looked like he might be ready to break out, but injuries and general basketball ineptitiude has rendered him useless. Despite playing only 22.8 mpg, he has fouled out of 4 out of 8 contests so far this year. Wow. Not a good sign.

Darius Miles (POR) – As a 19-year old rookie in 2000, Darius scored 9.4 ppg on 50% shooting, with 5.9 boards, 1.5 blocks, and drooling fantasy basketballers screaming “upside!” wherever he went. 2 years later he was shipped to Cleveland, and in his third year, he scored 9.2 ppg on 41% shooting, with 5.4 boards, 1 block, and unhappy fantasy basketballers glaring at him wherever he went. Now in Portland, he’s not doing much better. How a guy can not improve at all (in fact, he may have gotten WORSE) from age 19 to age 23 is beyond me, and will have statistical gurus confused for years. Avoid this guy.

Tim Thomas (NYK) – Hey, a forward that can shoot 3’s? I mean, there’s gotta be a spot on your roster for a guy like that, right? Wrong. Thomas is the ultimate fantasy tease. While he might get you a 3 pointer every game, and score maybe 13-15 ppg, he has never – and keep in mind, he’s a forward – NEVER averaged over 5 boards per game. never averaged 2 assists, or even 1 block. Now he’s in the dog house in New York. The end could be nearing for Mr. Thomas. Don’t get caught up in it.

Morris Peterson (TOR) – Like Tim Thomas, you figure you can find a spot on your roster for a SF who can shoot 3’s, but once again, you’d be wrong. Peterson’s “career year”, 2002, saw him go 14.1/4.4/2.3 with 1.1 steals and 1.4 3’s in 36 mpg. Now, he’s down to 22 mpg, and he’s absolutely murdering his owners everywhere but in 3’s and FT%. At best he’s a 3-category guy, and right now it’s unclear whether we’ll ever see his ‘at best’ again.

Fight Fallout.

So I’m sure you’ve heard enough about how tough it’s gonna be for the Pacers, and how Friday night was a disgrace for the game and what a disaster this whole situation is. Blah, blah, blah. Now, let’s take a look at what this means for your fantasy team. With the top 3 options out for the Pacers (they averaged 62% of the team’s shots per game over the first part of the season), this is a great chance for some of the backups and role players to really be effective. Who’s ready to break out in Indy? Let’s break them into categories:

Immediate Pickups
Fred Jones, SG
Was: 12.1/4.1/2.3, 1.8 3pt, .8 stl, .4 blk, 46% FG, 88% FT, 32 mpg.
Proj: 18/6/4, 2.5 3pt, 1 stl, .5 blk, 42% FG, 85% FT, 40 mpg.
Jones was a the Pacers’ first round pick back in 2002, taken 14th overall as a college senior. Previously buried behind Reggie Miller while not fighting off injuries, this is the first year he’s gotten any sort of significant playing time and he’s responded well. He’s not afraid to launch 3’s all day long, and he’s made 41% of them so far this year. He played all 48 minutes against Orlando on Saturday, and should top 40 mpg while Stephen Jackson is out. Go get this guy.

Austin Croshere, F
Was: 12/6.8/2.3, 1.4 3pt, 1.4 stl, .4 blk, 45.7% FG, 94% FT, 36.5 mpg.
Proj: 16/8/3, 2.0 3pt, 1.5 stl, .5 blk, 43% FG, 89% FT, 40 mpg.
Austin got some love in last weeks Weekend Review, so hopefully you were listening. He was already getting career-high minutes this year due to injuries, and now his stock is higher than ever. He’s a great source of 3’s from the power forward spot, and he won’t really hurt you anywhere. Nice steal numbers as well. He’s probably already gone in your league, but just in case, grab him.

If You’ve Got a Roster Spot…
David Harrison, C
Was: 4.5/3.2/0.2, 1 blk, .3 stl, 51.6% FG, 59.1% FT, 17.8 mpg.
Proj: 10/6/0.4, 1.8 blk, .6 stl, 48% FG, 59% FT, 32 mpg.
This rookie from Colorado is about to be thrown into the fire. His first game, he responded very nicely, with 19 and 8, 2 steals and 3 blocks in 44 minutes against Orlando Saturday night. Normally, you’d think that this guy is an automatic pickup, but remember, Scot Pollard could be back as soon as tomorrow, so temper those expectations. Speaking of which…

Scot Pollard, C
Was: 7.3/9.3/0.7, 1 blk, .7 stl, 52.9% FG, 57.1% FT, 29.3 mpg.
Proj: 8/8/1, 1 blk, .5 stl, 51% FG, 60% FT, 27 mpg.
Pollard continues to be one of those guys who you (well, I) always think, if only he gets a chance, he’d be a nice fantasy player. But, there’s a reason he doesn’t get a chance. He stinks. Harrison will get the bulk of the minutes at C, and Pollard will be struggling to return from injuries as it is. However, he’s worth stashing away on your roster, just in case.

Not Worth It.
Eddie Gill, PG
An undrafted player who’s been on and off league rosters for 4 years, Eddie got a full 48 minutes of PT against Orlando and put up 8 points and 3 assists on 30% shooting, with a three, a board, and 3 steals. In 48 minutes. He’s pretty useless right now, and once Tinsley returns, he’s totally useless.

James Jones, SF
Indiana’s 2nd round pick last year, he’s among the league leaders in DNP-CD’s. He did grab 12 boards in 43 minutes of action on Saturday, but we’d like to see him do it again before really considering him.

Keep in mind, both O’Neal and Jackson are going to appeal their suspensions, and could very well get them reduced. It might not be a bad time to try buying low on them from their current owners.

Meanwhile, A Whole League Was Going On.
Yes, believe it or not, the NBA kept on rolling through the weekend, despite the near end of the world on Friday in Detroit. Dirk Nowitzki and Pau Gasol both got injured on Sunday, and it doesn’t look good for either one. Go pick up Josh Howard and Stromile Swift right away.

The best tandem in the West was supposed to be Yao and McGrady, but it looks like Phoenix’s Amare Stoudamire and Steve Nash are taking the crown thus far. Yesterday, Stoudamire put up 33 points, and Nash dished out 18 assists. Oh, and Shaun Marion added 22 points, 14 boards, 4 blocks, 3 steals, and 2 3’s. Is there a better 1-2-3 punch in the NBA right now? No.

The Bulls managed to lose twice this weekend, and still have 3 games to go in their 7-game road trip. Coach Scott Skiles has no idea what he’s doing, and no set rotation whatsoever. This is a situation all fantasy players should try to avoid. For now.

Vinsane Trade Rumors
All the NBA talk in the last couple days has dealt with the rumors going around that Vince Carter has found his ticket out of Toronto. The rumor is that Portland is ready to make a move for the Raptors superstar, sending Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Vladimir Stepania, and Derek Anderson to Toronto in exchange for Carter, Jalen Rose and contract filler. If it goes down, what does this mean? Let’s look at the most-affected players in the swap:

Carter – Is it possible to be over the hill at age 27? Carter has been setting career-lows in points, boards, blocks, FG%, 3’s, and minutes this year. He’s playing more tentatively, settling for jump shots instead of driving to the basket, and is really a shadow of his former self. He’s still valuable to a fantasy team, but a change of scenery isn’t going to help his knee problems. He might get more minutes, but that will mean more wear and tear. It might be a no-win situation for Carter at this point in his career.

Abdur-Rahim – By far the biggest benefactor of this deal, Reef will likely return to his former 20-9 self, as he becomes the unquestioned number one option on his team. His value skyrockets if this deal goes through.

Anderson – Derek will also benefit from this deal. He gets out of a crowded backcourt and will really only have to compete with Mo Pete for playing time, although it shouldn’t be much of a competition. While he’s getting 34 mpg in Portland, he’s taking his fewest shots per game (10.4) since 2001. Look for him to bump up his points and 3’s a little bit, and he’ll be worth a Utility spot on your roster if he gets moved.

Rose – He’s being moved more because of his contract than becuase he’s needed in Portland. He’ll enter a crowded backcourt, where Darius Miles and Ruben Patterson will take away his minutes. Rose is a borderline fantasy contributor this year as it is (his assists have fallen from 5.5 to 2.2), and might be worthless if the deal goes through.

Also Gaining Value:
Rafer Alston (TOR) – Moving Vince and Rose means Skip to My Lou will have the ball in his hands more, and that means more assists, 3’s…an across the board improvement.
Ruben Patterson (POR) – He’s the coach’s favorite this year in Portland, and could get more time at the 3 if Cheeks isn’t forced to play Rose like he was forced to play Reef.

Also Losing Value:
Darius Miles (POR) – If he was hoping to get all the minutes with Reef gone, Darius is in for a surprise. Now he actually has to earn playing time by outplaying Rose and Patterson, and he hasn’t been able to earn time yet in this league.

40 Times
Take a look at the league leaders in minutes, and you’ll see a lot of the usual suspects: LeBron, AI, and KG, for example, are all clearing the 40 minute per game mark. But there are 2 guys at the top of the list who you wouldn’t expect to be there:

Keith Van Horn (MIL) - What is this, 1998? Van Horn has come out of the gates running hard this year, averaging 20.9 points, 9.3 boards, 2 3’s, and playing 41.8 mpg. Now that Toni Kukoc is on the IL, Van Horn has the 3 spot all to himself, and he’s taking advantage of it. After playing for 4 teams in 3 years, he might have found his spot in Milwaukee. Keep an eye on him – he might be a nice buy-fake-high player.

Jimmy Jackson (HOU) – It’s no secret that Jackson is a favorite of Houston coach Jeff Van Gundy. Last year, at age 33, Jackson was on the court 39 minutes a game. 10 games into 2004, he’s seeing over 40 minutes of court time a night. While we love to see our players get great minutes, Jackson doesn’t do all that much with them – 12/4/3 with 1.8 3’s and 1.3 steals is good, but not great – and he’s bound to wear down eventually. Tread carefully with Jackson this year.

Game of the Week(end)
LA Lakers at Phoenix Suns (Tonight, 9pm EST)
Lots of feature story possibilities in this game. First, and most obviously, there’s the Kobe drama, both with his foot injury, and the fact that he considered (maybe) signing with the Suns during the offseason. Then there’s the incredible year Steve Nash is having, dishing out 17 and 18 assists in 2 games last week, and hitting 5 3’s in another game. And of course you’ll want to see if Amare Stoudamire will be able to keep up his incredible scoring pace, averaging over 27 ppg so far this year. This one could be a shootout, and should be very entertaining.

OK, let’s finish up this point guard thing. Before we do that, though, let’s revisit the East really quickly. Remember when I was discussing the Nets situation and said: “Vaughn is not a scorer, he won’t even get you any 3s, and he won’t get many steals either. He’s the better bet of the two for now, but add him only if you are truly desperate for assists.” Well, forget about that. In the Nets last two games, Vaughn has played a total of 21 minutes, while Zoran Planinic has averaged 36 mpg, 13.5 points, 7.5 reb, 4 ast, and 2 steals. It would still be nice to see more assists from Zoran, but he seems to have taken the upperhand in this battle and should be worth picking up if he’s out there.

Dallas Mavericks

This situation is pretty messy. Devin Harris has been getting the starting nod, but he’s averaging just 18 mpg, which isn’t enough to have any value. He’s played only 23 minutes combined in the last two games, as with Michael Finley out Don Nelson seems to be looking for a more veteran presence. Harris is probably worth hanging on to if you have the space, but he’s certainly not worth using right now. Jason Terry still hasn’t gotten too acclimated to the big D yet, at least not for fantasy purposes. The team is winning, so there’s little reason to tinker, which is bad news for Terry owners, as the 27.5 mpg he’s receiving now keeps him right on the play/bench border. You certainly can’t drop him, considering that you probably spent a fairly early draft pick on him, and chances are he’ll emerge from the pack here, so be patient. Marquis Daniels is a favorite of mine, and if someone dropped him, you must grab him now. He was recovering from an injury to start the season, but has averaged nearly 35 mpg over the last four contests, and has put up a solid 15.5/5/2.5 line with 1.5 steals. Not earth-shattering, but the kid can play. Right now none of these three players are much more than utility players, though, and it could stay that way for a while.

Houston Rockets

People thought Tyronn Lue and Charlie Ward would battle it out for PG duties, but Ward looks to have the definite upperhand, averaging nearly 35 mpg over the last five. He saw more time with McGrady out and played only 28 minutes with T-Mac back in the lineup, which is cause for concern. But what’s more cause for concern are his very pedestrian numbers of 7.8/3.4/4.1. He is getting 1.6 3pg and 1.4 spg, so those of you desperate for help at the point could do worse, but not much. Checking out his career numbers, you know things just won’t get much better.

New Orleans Hornets

OK, this is sort of a trick one. With Baron Davis out (already, ugh), Darrell Armstrong becomes a must-start in all leagues. He’s long in the tooth but is still a top fantasy contributor when he gets the PT, and one needs only to look at the Hornets first game without Baron to see that. In 35 minutes of action Armstrong totaled 21 points on 8-of-17 shooting, including 5-of-9 from downtown. He also chipped in 5 assists and 2 steals. He won’t get that many 3s every night, but his numbers should be somewhere around 16 pts, 5 assists, 2 steals and 2 3s as long as Baron is out, which any team could use.

Seattle Supersonics

A very interesting PG situation shaping up in Seattle, where it looks like both Antonio Daniels and Luke Ridnour could have considerable value. Ridnour, who looked totally overmatched last year has been a revelation early on, averaging 6.4 assists, 1.9 steals, and nearly a 3 a game in 30 mpg. Daniels, meanwhile, is the Sonics third-leading scorer at 14.4 ppg. The Sonics are using a crunch time lineup that sees both Daniels and Ridnour out on the floor together. Because Ridnour is handling the point, with Daniels at the 2 (and Ray Allen at the 3), Ridnour is the better bet right now. But with both of them playing so well, a slump by one could lead to increased minutes by the other. More likely, they will both continue to see around 30 mpg, and when the Sonics stop winning 6 out of every 7 games, their values will both drop. We like Ridnour more long-term and think he should be picked up.

Utah Jazz

The Jazz have gotten off to their fast start with neither of their top two point guards playing a minute, which is quite impressive. Keith McLeod and Howard Eisley have done fine work in place of Raul Lopez and Carlos Arroyo, but both will get well acquainted with the bench when those two return. But the fact that there are seemingly four capable point guards in Utah certainly can’t make owners of Arroyo happy. Those of you hoping for much improvement over his 12.6 points and 5 assists of last year probably aren’t going to see it. Jerry Sloan likes to spread the wealth, and even though the team is super solid, Boozer and Kirilenko are the only sure-fire fantasy starters on this squad.

Los Angeles Clippers

Marko Jaric has long been a favorite of mine, but I finally gave up on him after a few games this year, opting to pick up Ridnour instead. Of course, Jaric then went out and put up a 19/5/8 game with 3 steals and 3s the next night, but he’s done that before. It was still the first game this season that he had more than 4 assists, and Shaun Livingston is only going to get more time as the season goes on and the Clippers inevitably fall out of the race. Jaric has always been a good source of steals and 3s, so he’s always intriguing, but chances are he will continue to be just a tease. You could take flyers on worse players, but I’ve been let down plenty of times before, and you should prepare to be as well.

Golden State Warriors

Derek Fisher and Speedy Claxton are in a true timeshare right now, with each averaging right around 27 mpg. Neither has been able to assert themselves, as Fisher followed a 23-point game with a 2-point game, and Claxton followed an 18-point, 9-assist game by getting hurt. Neither player has a huge upside, as Fisher has never been one to rack up assists (although he was often really the 2 to Kobe’s 1 in L.A.) and Claxton has no long-range game to speak of. This is a situation that really changes from day to day, as Fisher’s 15-point, 7-assist performance last night gives him the momentum, but who knows what will happen next time out? This is a team searching for anything that will work, and nothing has so far. I would stay away from both, but lean slightly towards Claxton. He could be a solid Eric Snow circa 2000 player, but has proven fragile. A long-term injury to either would obviously make the other a no-brainer pick-up.

The Best Things in Life are Free (Throws)

OK, you might as well face it. If you own a guy like Shaq or Tim Duncan, you’re going to need major help in the free throw department. Duncan went 11-24 from the stripe over the weekend, including an incredible 5-14 against Shaq and the Heat on Friday night. Not to be outdone, O’Neal went 5 of 17 on Sunday against the Bucks, bringing his year total to 28 of 76, or 36.8%. Yikes!

But these two aren’t the only clankers who can kill your fantasy team. Kevin Garnett (62%), Ben Wallace (43%), Kenyon Martin (57%) and Antoine Walker (50%) are also wreaking havoc. So what can you do to offset these disasterous lines from otherwise-studly fantasy players? You might want to consider picking up/trading for some of the following players, who can help eke your percentage over the 70% mark, while not killing you in other categories:

Jerry Stackhouse (DAL) – A career 81% free-throw shooter, Stackhouse has been getting to the line 5.4 times per game, and that number could go up depending on how well he plays over the next few games with Finley out. Jerry could be a valuable asset just like Antawn Jamison was last year.

Luke Ridnour (SEA) – A Fantasy Basketblog favorite, Luke is 17-18 from the line so far this year. While 18 free throws does not a fantasy contributor make, the good news is, he’s starting to get to the line more, and getting more minutes, too. After averaging 1.25 FTA over his first 4 games, his last 3 has seen him shoot 4.3 free throws a game. He’ll give you nice assists, points, threes, steals … an all-around nice point guard.

Austin Croshere (IND) – Hey, whaddya know? Give a guy some minutes, and he might just help out your team. After playing under 17 mpg each of the last three years (despite a ridiculously large contract), Croshere has taken advantage of some injuries to showcase his talents, scoring 11.6 points, grabbing 6.3 boards, hitting 1.4 3’s, and shooting 95% from the line. His career average is about 85%, so he could be a nice contributor at FT% if he maintains his minutes.

Men of Steal
Don’t look now, but Manu Ginobilli has been one of the 5 best fantasy players so far this year, due in large part to his 3 steals per game. Of course, he’s also shattering his career highs in points, 3’s, FG%, and rebounds, despite essentially getting the same amount of minutes he got last year. Don’t look for this production to last (he only scored 9 points against the Hawks on Saturday) but if he keeps up his steals he could be a very valuable member of your squad. Who else is burgling? A lot of the usual suspects, but here are some folks you might not expect to see:

Kenyon Martin (DEN) – He may not be shooting, rebounding, blocking, or scoring as well as he has in the past, but K-Mart has been racking up 2 steals per game, which is very valuable from a forward. He might be a nice buy-low candidate if you can pull him from his current owner.

Andre Iguodala (PHI) – Another Fantasy Basketblog favorite, you might be able to find Iguodala on the waiver wires in your league. He’s not dominating in anything, but he gives you good all-around numbers. He helps in 3’s, blocks, boards, FT%, and he’s stealing the ball 1.5 times a game. He’s earning minutes in Philly (he got 40 last week in New Jersey), and should steadily improve those point totals.

Carmelo Anthony (DEN) – Another Nugget off to a rough start, Carmelo has picked up his scoring the last few games, and is stealing the ball almost twice a night, making him a legitimate 6-category player. You won’t be able to convince his owner to give him up on the cheap, but it’s worth noting that he’s added another weapon to his arsenal.

It Don’t Gotta Be Pretty
Even the worst teams in basketball will score a good 70 or 80 points per game. And somebody on those teams will be getting rebounds, blocks, 3’s, etc. Just because a team stinks doesn’t mean that you’re not going to find a few fantasy gems. You just have to put up with watching the games (or at least looking at the box scores). For example:

We talked a little bit about The Bulls last week, and while they’re 0-4, there were some good signs in their one-point loss to the Clippers on Saturday. Eddy Curry took advantage of 40 minutes of trade-value-raising action and laid down 20 points and 11 boards. Tyson Chandler played a season-high 36 minutes and scored 17 points, had 13 boards and 2 blocks. Meanwhile, both Luol Deng and Andres Nocioni saw their playing time slip yet again, as neither saw 30 minutes of action, and it might be time to put them on the bench for a little while. As long as the Bulls keep losing, they’ll continue to tinker with their lineups and depth chart, which could make for a frustrating season for fantasy owners.

We also discussed the woes of the New Orleans Hornets, and things have gone from bad to worse, as now Baron Davis is out at least a week with a back injury. This could be a recurring problem, as he has shown no desire to actually play for the Hornets this year. With Davis out, we think that JR Smith should be getting more action, but instead it was Darrell Armstrong getting 35 minutes against the Bucks on Saturday night. If losing to the lowly Hawks on Friday night didn’t wake up the coaching staff and make them realize they need to start playing for the future, then who knows what it’ll take.