Archive for November, 2004
Weekend Preview (11/12-11/14)

Well, we’re almost 2 weeks into the NBA season, and it’s almost like nothing’s changed. The Kings are all fighting amongst themselves, Ron Artest is a lunatic, and the Mavericks have the most wins in the league, but no one thinks they have any shot at a title. Marcus Camby is injured again. But hey, if everything was so predictable, there wouldn’t be any need for fantasy basketball, much less (gasp!) a fantasy basketblog. So let’s see what’s worth paying attention to this weekend:

Game Of The Week(end)
Detroit at Utah (Saturday, 9pm EST)
OK, so not everything is predictable in the NBA. Last night, the NBA’s defending champions rolled over against a questionable-at-best Denver Nuggets, while “This Year’s Pistons”, the Jazz, got beat handily by the Raptors, who have already beaten the real Pistons and are now 4-1. But make no mistake about it. Both of these teams are in the NBA’s elite, and they feature possibly the 2 best coaches in the league. They’re built on suffocating defenses, strong fundamentals, and patience on offense. Meaning, yes, this game could be boring as all hell. But be sure to look at the box score the next day. Does Arroyo make it back to the court? How does he play? Does McDyess look strong filling in for Ben Wallace? (Quick sidenote: Wallace is out attending the funeral of his sixty-one year old brother. Read that again.) It might not be exciting, but these are two great teams.

Who Shot? JR!
Karma, dude. New Orleans Hornets owner George Shinn is getting exactly what was coming to him. Just a few years after ditching Charlotte, NC because they wouldn’t build him a stadium (boo hoo!), things are going from bad to worse in N’awlins. First, he got caught up in the division realignment and got sent to the Southwest Division with Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, and Memphis. (Just a quick reminder, the new Charlotte franchise is in the Southeast with Washington, Orlando, Miami and Atlanta.) Then one star, Jamal Mashburn, is out before the year even starts. Then BOTH of his other studs, Baron Davis and Jamal Magloire, demand trades! Oh yeah, and attendance is second-lowest in the league. Oh, and Rodney Rogers is out 4-8 weeks. Shazam!
Sooner or later, the Hornets are going to realize it’s time to start playing the young’uns. Maybe not now, when they’re only 0-4, but eventually. 34-year old David Wesley, 35-year old PJ Brown and 36 year-old Darrell Armstrong aren’t gonna get any better. But there is hope in the wings. JR Smith, the sharp-shooting high school rookie, could make a nice impact if he gets 25-30 minutes a game. One thing about the Hornets is they’re not afraid to shoot 3’s. As the season progresses, Smith could turn into a top 3-point shooter for your fantasy team. Keep an eye on the situation.
Also worth watching is David West, the former Xavier star now in his second season. For some reason, he’s having trouble getting into the rotation, but when he gets minutes, he gets numbers. In the season opener, he got 20 minutes and chipped in 8 points, 7 boards, 2 assists and a steal. Of course, in the next 3 games he’s gotten a total of 18 minutes, including the dreaded DNP-CD Tuesday night against the Lakers. It’s a disaster in the Big Easy.

Injury Watch
Marcus Camby, DEN: Surprise! Of course, we’re kidding. This isn’t a surprise at all. Who knows how long he’ll be out, but right now would be a good time to go out and grab Nene if he’s available in your league - which he might be, since he’s nursing a sore hamstring and hasn’t played since opening night. If Camby is out any decent amount of time, Nene will be the biggest beneficiary.

Michael Finley, DAL: Ok, so we were all excited about Josh Howard earlier in the week, and down on Marquis Daniels. But now, we like Daniels all over again! Call us flip-floppers if you must, but flip-floppers win in fantasy worlds. Anyhow, Daniels has averaged 30.5 minutes since Finley got hurt, and over those games has averaged 19 points, 5 boards, 2 assists, and a steal. Go get this guy - Finley’s already on the IL.

Jermaine O’Neal, IND: Uh-oh. He left early in a blowout loss on Wednesday night, and we were supposed to hear more yesterday, which we didn’t. Of course, his foot doesn’t prevent him from having some sort of impact on the team. As Ron Artest says, “Jermaine always sets me straight. I’m not the easiest teammate to play with. Jermaine’s a leader on this team and he has to set me straight. J.O. told me to stop acting like a damn fool and I agreed.” Check now to see if you can get “Getting Ron Artest to Stop Acting Like A Damn Fool” added as a category in your fantasy league.

The Depths of Eastern Conference Point Guards

Everybody needs a point guard. Everybody needs two point guards, actually. And, just to be safe, it’s best to have three point guards. But unless you drafted well, it will be hard to find one. Sure, you can trade for one, but they won’t come cheap, if it all. In my league, I spend my 2nd, 4th and 7th round picks on Baron Davis, Kirk Hinrich and Jamaal Tinsley and really can’t see myself dealing any of them. With the exception of guys like KG and Webber, point guards are the only guys who get assists. They are also among the best in 3s, steals and FT%. That’s half of your categories right there.

Still, there may be some point guards hanging out on the waiver wire. A quick run through the league finds most teams with unquestioned starters at point guards. But the situation for some teams is murky. Let’s try to unmurkify them, starting today with the Eastern Conference.

New Jersey Nets

Jason Kidd is probably still at least a month or so away from returning from his injury, and who knows if he’ll even be back then. He certainly doesn’t want to come back and play for this team, but he knows his best chance of a ticket out of town is to prove he’s healthy. Until then, though, Jacque Vaughn and Zoran Planinic will battle for his time, and Travis Best might even sneak his way in there, though we will forget about him for the moment. Are either Vaughn or Planinic worthy of roster consideration? Vaughn might be soon. Last night was the second time in five games this season that Vaughn has played 40 minutes, and he dished an impressive 12 assists. Granted, that’s more than he totaled in the first four games, but still. Planinic has been getting the starting nods, but Vaughn has been out there when it mattered, as Zoran is averaging only 16.2 mpg. There is no one who can be a fantasy contributor with those minutes. His best game was that eyesore of a victory against the Blazers when he managed 12 points and 8 rebounds, but no assists. If Vaughn can serve as a steadying force on the offense, Lawrence Frank might have to think about putting him in the starting lineup and making sure he gets 30-35 mpg. Even then, don’t expect too much. Vaughn is not a scorer, he won’t even get you any 3s, and he won’t get many steals either. He’s the better bet of the two for now, but add him only if you are truly desperate for assists.

Milwaukee Bucks

Maurice Williams has probably been snagged by now, and with good reason. He has been racking up the assists through the Bucks first three games, averaging 10 per contest. He has yet to break 10 points a game or even attempt a three-pointer, but 10 apg is 10 apg. Of course this won’t last, and his starting gig might not even last. If Mike James has been dumped, consider picking him up if you can stash him in IL. There has been lots of speculation that when James returns from his injury, he won’t have a starting job, and that’s entirely possible. But remember, it’s only been three games. A six-game losing streak and a slump by Williams could put James right back in a starting role where he could do some fantasy damage. The Bucks are a great team for assists thanks to jump shooters like Redd and Van Horn, so whoever has the PG reigns should be solid there. James is also a proven long-distance gunner, averaging 1.6 in just over 30 mpg with Boston last season. Here’s saying that within a month or so, James will be the one being added to many teams while Williams re-acquaints himself with the free agent list.

Miami Heat

OK, this is sort of a trick one. We all know that Dwyane Wade is officially the starting PG and there’s a pretty good chance he’s already taken. Call it a hunch. But Damon Jones is worth consideration for those who really need some PG help. As expected, Jones is seeing significant playing time, at just over 28 mpg through the first four contests. The Heat often employ a lineup with three smalls and two bigs going with Wade, Damon Jones and either Eddie Jones or Rasual Butler to go with Shaq and Haslem/Doleac/Allen up front. Everyone thought Eddie Jones would light it up from outside thanks to Shaq’s presence and some thought that Rasual Butler would benefit, too. But so far it’s Damon Jones who has been the main beneficiary, with 2.3 3pg early on. His 3.3 apg isn’t anything to get too excited about, but you have to think that Wade will drop from his 8pg and a few of those will fall to Jones. Expect Jones to fill the same role as Rafer Alston did for the Heat last year, getting around 30mpg off the bench and getting enough 3s, assists and steals to make him a decent last option for your starting lineup.

Charlotte Bobcats

We might not be able to call this one a murky situation anymore, not after Jason Hart put up a 19-point, 12-assist game immediately following a 14/11 outing. He’s surely been snagged by now, and with good reason. The Bobcats wanted him to take the starting job from the start of training camp, but he wasn’t able to assert himself, so he went into the season in a timeshare situation with Brevin Knight. Brevin lasted only one game before getting hurt and after Hart’s last two games, there’s no question who the main man is in Charlotte now. I wouldn’t put it past Bernie Bickerstaff to continue tinkering with his starting lineup, but at this point it seems like Hart should remain a fixture. And don’t worry if he’s officially a shooting guard, he’ll put up PG numbers. If you think that double doubles will become the norm, you are in for a cruel surprise, but Ben’s prognosis of 12 pts and 6 ast sounds about right.

Atlanta Hawks

It’s possible that this team is even worse than we thought they would be. Four games, and the 14 points is the closest they’ve been when the final horn sounds. They haven’t been able to top 90 points yet, and don’t expect them to hit the century mark too often, even in a division with teams like Washington, Orlando and Charlotte. In what should come as absolutely no surprise to anyone, Kenny Anderson has done less than nothing with the starting PG spot, averaging a dismal 4.8 pts and 3 ast on 24% shooting. The guy just has nothing left in the tank and shouldn’t be on any roster unless your league is limited to former Georgia Tech players. The player to keep on eye on here is Tony Delk. He’s on the IL right now, but when he comes back I can’t see any reason that the Hawks won’t yank Anderson from the starting lineup and give Delk a chance to ignite the offense. Delk is no miracle worker, of course, and even his best season in Phoenix in 2000 was nothing to get excited about (12.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2 apg, .7 3pg, .9 spg). Still, given a chance to play over 30 mpg in Atlanta – which he should get – he could help your team. In 28 mpg with Boston in 2002 he averaged 1.8 3pg and 1.1 spg. He’s never been a true point guard, so don’t expect many assists, especially on a team as pitiful as the Hawks. But he’ll be getting significant minutes within the next few weeks and certainly has the ability to do a little damage.

Something Ain’t Right…

Take a guess who is in the top 5 in team scoring. C’mon, I dare ya. Dallas Mavericks? Sorry, no, they’re 6th. The Kings? pfft! Not even in the top half. OK, stop embarassing yourself. Yeah, the Heat, with Dwayne Wade and Shaq, that’s not a huge surprise. And the Suns, with Amare, Steve Nash, Joe Johnson, and The Matrix, well that’s reasonable. But the other three teams? How about this: Charlotte, Washington, and Seattle. Shazam! Who the heck is putting the ball in the basket for these guys? Let’s have a look-see:

Charlotte
OK, so they’re also giving up the 3rd-most points in the league, but admit it, you thought these guys would struggle to score 80 points on most nights. Their marquee player, Emeka Okafor, is a defense-first center. Their shooting guard, Gerald Wallace, shoots about 55% from the free-throw line. So what’s going on? First of all, Primoz Brezec is scoring 18.3 ppg (beating his career high by 16.3 points), hitting nearly 2/3 of his shots. Jason Hart is dishing the ball to the tune of 9.7 apg, and they’re sharing the ball: 6 players are averaging in double figures, and one other is averaging 9.7.
Don’t expect this to keep up, though. Brezec is good, sure, but not .595 fg% good. Expect him to settle down to 14 ppg, maintaining his 8 boards, and very little else. Hart will not keep up his torrid assist pace, but he’ll be worth having on your team. Look for 12/3/6 with a steal or two and a three here or there. A good utility player.
The gem of this team is Okafor. Definitely. Listen to this, and guess who player X is: “a 6-10 All-America center … he came out of college with his defensive skills fully developed, but he surprised NBA observers with a sophisticated offensive repertoire.” Sounds like Okafor, but really it’s an early report on Alonzo Mourning. And I think that’s right where Okafor is headed. He’s not gonna dominate like Zo from the get-go, but he certainly will get his fair share of looks at the basket - look for 15/12 with 2.5-3 bpg. He’s the real deal - and maybe the only one on the team.

Seattle
The biggest surprise in the NBA, the Sonics are 4-1 and blowing away all of the preseason predictions. While Ray Allen’s output isn’t a surprise, Rashard Lewis has been scoring at about 5-6 ppg higher than his norm. Neither of these guys are really any more or less valuable than they were on draft day, but there are some guys to be scouring for on the waiver wire.
The big shocker is Danny Fortson, who has come out of nowhere to average 9.8 boards - in just 17.5 minutes. That’s a ridiculous rate, but not totally unpredictable. Remember, he’s the guy who averaged a double-double for the Warriors a couple times. Look for him to get more minutes as he continues to clean up the glass, especially on the offensive side. Also look for him to sucker-push foriegners, like he did to Zarko Cabarkapa last year.
There are two very solid second-year guys on this team who are worth keeping tabs on. Luke Ridnour, the point guard from Oregon, earned the starting job to start the year, and is starting to earn more minutes with his play. He still turns the ball over a little too much, but if he continues to ward of Antonio Daniels for minutes, he’ll be a fine util/backup PG, getting about 12 and 7 or so, with a three and a couple steals.
The other second-year man is Nick Collison, who is nowhere near ready to be picked up. But they like this kid a lot, and he’s already rebounding well. Look for him to start getting more minutes as the year carries on, especially if Vladimir Radmanovic is traded.

Washington
Another score-all-the-time team, the Wizards are stacked with scorers. The trifecta of Antawn Jamison, Gilbert Arenas, and Larry Hughes should all average over 18 points per game. Jarvis Hayes and Juan Dixon should each hit double digits themselves. And that’s without Kwame Brown or Etan Thomas in the lineup. Sure there’s not much defense going on, but hey, who likes defense? This is fantasy basketball, not real basketball.
The first three players mentioned above should be on a roster in every league. After that, it’s hard to tell. There are going to be battles for minutes at a number of positions once Kwame, Etan and Steve Blake return to the court. The obvious losers are going to be Dixon and Brendan Haywood, who has a great chance to show the Wizards they weren’t crazy to give him an extension last week. Haywood could be a nice short-term pickup, but they also spent a good deal of money to keep Thomas around, so they’ll likely split time - and be useless to your fantasy squad.
Here’s an interesting trade. How about the expiring contract of Larry Hughes and Kwame Brown for Ron Artest and Jeff Foster? I’m just saying, is all.

Must…Resist…Geezers…

Last we checked, the year was 2004, but for some reason there are a couple of old folks out there who seem to think it’s 1998. Who’s for real? That’s for them to know, and for us to take a wild stab at. Remember, no matter how the stats look one day, each game these guys play could be their last of the year. So tread carefully:

Alonzo Mourning
Key Stats
Age: 34
Number of original kidneys: 1
Average games played, last 4 years: 25
Blocks per game, career: 3
Last time he actually averaged three blocks: 1999
Rebounds per game, career: 9.7
Last time he actually averaged 9 rebounds: 1999
So far this year: 12.5 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.8 blocks
Hey, he got the start last night and played 37 minutes. He’s a source of blocks which makes him startable. But really, if you expect him to play more than 50 games this year, you’re either an optimist or an idiot. If he’s on your free agent wire, pick him up, but don’t give up anything of value for him in a trade unless you’re desperate for blocks. He’s a guy where no matter how tempting he looks, the second you get him on your roster, he’s gone for his career. Plus he’s been pushing for a real-life trade, which may mean he’ll get moved somewhere that he can be a backup. Beware.

Grant Hill
Key Stats
Age: 32
Number of surgeries on left ankle: 4
Average games played, last 4 years: 11.75
PPG, 1994-1999: 21.5
PPG, 2000-present: 15.1
So far this year: 15.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.8 steals
OK, so no one is really gonna be fooled into thinking that Hill is 26 all over again, but just the fact that he’s playing is nice to see. He’s worth a roster spot, and usually a starting spot, while he’s healthy, but the numbers you’re seeing now are probably as good as it’s gonna get this year. Maybe a small spike in boards and assists, but that’s about all. Again, if you can get him on the real cheap, go for it, but don’t give up anything of value. One slip and he’s done.

Chris Webber
Key Stats
Age: 31
Number of good knees: Don’t ask.
Average games played, last 3 years: 48
Last time he played 80 games in a year: Never.
So far this year: 20 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 5.8 apg, 1.5 blocks.
Webber might be the most tempting out of all these players. He certainly has the most value, which he showed last night picking up a triple-double, with great percentages, a steal, and three blocks. He’s a walking double-double with great assist numbers for a big man, and he’ll get you blocks and steals. His knees seem to be holding up OK so far, and he could be a buy-fake-high candidate like those mentioned in yesterday’s column. Every game he stays healthy, the better his value gets. If he plays 70 games this year, he’s worth an early 2nd round pick. But that’s a huge if.

Reggie Miller
Key Stats
Age: 39
Projected weeks out with broken hand: 6-8
Last year he averaged 20 points: 1996
Last year he averaged over 5 free throw attempts: 1999
Number of players in front of him on depth chart when he gets back: 1 (Stephen Jackson)
So far this year: Hasn’t played.
This could be it for Reggie. He held up very nicely through his mid-30’s, but now he’s a shadow of his former self. His stats, like his minutes, have been in a free fall since 2001, and there’s no reason to think they’ll turn around. He’s still a top free throw shooter, but unless he consistently gets to the line, it’s not enough to help. And now that he’s out with a broken hand, the Pacers are learning that they can live without him. Even as a free agent, he’s not really worth a spot on your roster.

Buy low, sell high? Been there, done that.

A lot of times you’ll see someone put up an impressive line, but hold off picking him up because he’s getting playing time only because of an injury. The injured player will be back in a few days, so why bother? Because in the NBA, injuries always last longer than you think they will, and it’s hard to take a hot hand out of the lineup. Another common refrain in fantasy circles is “buy low, sell high.” Makes enough sense and is a rather obvious strategy. But it’s so obvious that even the weakest players are on to it. So you almost have to overthink things and target guys who some might consider “sell high” players, but who are really “buy low” candidates. A few examples:

Chris Wilcox can flat out play. I saw just about every game he played in college and he was obviously plenty raw back then, but the talent was plainly obvious. Since he went to the Clippers, I’ve rarely seen him play, but I can see the numbers. Yes, his 24/9 in the season opener and 27/10 against the Blazers were very impressive, but even an “off” game, like against the Pistons on Monday shows what he’s capable of. He was in foul trouble (a common problem) and played on 29 minutes, but still contributed 15 and 7. Everything you read about Wilcox says how he’s just a placeholder until Chris Kaman comes back, but read that again. Yes, Kaman was actually selected two spots higher than Wilcox, but he is not a proven star. He is a more natural center, which does work in his favor, but I just can’t see Kaman averaging 20/7.5 on 63% shooting over any four game stretch. If Wilcox is available, get him now, this instant. And if his owner thinks he’s working on borrowed time and that Wilcox might not be valuable in a week or two, see if you can acquire him.

Kirk Hinrich did his best Baron Davis impression in the season opener, going off for 34 points, 8 assists, 5 3s and 3 steals. He was likely drafted relatively high in your draft, but it’s possible that whoever ended up with him didn’t think he was for real, and may think this is a good time to sell high, especially after he came down to earth with a 12 point, 8 turnover performance the next night. Hinrich will be a top 30 player this season, you can count on that. In fact, he could be just as valuable as the aforementioned Davis, depending on how many games Davis misses due to injury. The Bulls are a young, young team, Hinrich included. They have four rookies (Deng, Nocioni, Gordon and Duhon) getting consistent PT, at least early on. Eddy Curry and Tyson Chandler are very unproven, still. The Bulls brain trust loves Hinrich, and have basically put him in control of this team. He will have the ball in his hands more than most point guards, and will put up numbers across the board. After averaging under 13 ppg in his rookie year, expect him to approach 20 this year and to finish in the top 10 in the league in 3PM. He will be one of the few players who will be a dominant force this year who you can still probably acquire relatively cheap.

Rafer Alston is another PG that your window is closing on. He too has had a great start to the year that’s not quite consistent with his past performances. But there is no reason to think it won’t only get better for Alston. One think to like about him is that he launches 3s like they are going out of style. He has made three in each game this season, and the fact that he will continue to fire away will give him value even when he slumps. Like almost all PG, his FG% will probably drag you down a bit, but you’ll be able to live with that when he’s racking up the 3s, assists and steals. It’s almost impossible to win your league with PGs that aren’t dominant in those categories, and Alston will give you that. It’s only a matter of time before he’s recognized in the top tier.

Rookies are almost always dicey picks. But Emeka Okafor slipped way too far in most drafts. People gave far too little credit to his offensive game, forgetting the fact that he’ll be playing a huge number of games against teams with inside “forces” such as Brendan Haywood, Jason Collier and Dwight Howard. Still, there are some people out there who might think his fast start is a fluke and that the long season and back problems will catch up to Okafor. This is a possibility, of course, but he has great work habits and knows the team and city are counting on him, and I’d expect to see him in the lineup for at least 75 games this year. With only three blocks in two games, he hasn’t asserted himself in that category yet. Don’t worry, he will. And if you need blocks, he is a great “pretend to buy high” candidate.

Tuesday Tirades

Juwan Howard is Back On the Mavs?
No, but that’s what I think every time i see J. Howard in the Dallas boxscore. Really, that’s Josh Howard, the second-year man out of Wake Forest, who had a very promising rookie year, and looks like he might be ready to take off in year two. Howard’s minutes in the first 4 Mavs games looks something like this: 19, 23, 32, 44. Now sure, the last game was in OT, but nonetheless it looks like this kid is forcing his way onto the court. Everyone who thought Marquis Daniels (14.3 mpg, 5.5 ppg) was going to be the sensational sophomore in Dallas better think again. Look for Howard to average 12 points, 7 boards, a steal, a block, and maybe a three - at the very least. He’s worth a bench or Util spot, to see if he can keep it up.

Passing is Fundamental
While it’s no secret that the Jazz are the year’s first big success story, what may surprise you is how they’re getting it done. With just a FA journeyman (Howard Eisley) and an undrafted second-year player (Keith McLeod) at the point, the Jazz are leading the league in assists, at 26.5 per game. Eisley is dishing out more assists per minute than at any point in his career, and McLeod - who you may have never heard of before this year, for good reason - is dishing out 7 apg. While you shouldn’t be running out to grab these guys, if you can sneak the injured Carlos Arroyo away from his current team in a trade, you should do it. Apparently, Jerry Sloan’s offense this year means plenty of assists from the point guard position, and Arroyo will be getting 35 minutes plus at that spot this year. Bump his projected value for this year, to 8 or 9 apg.

If Only Crazy Hair Was A Fantasy Category…
We’ll admit it. We were pretty down on Ben Wallace in our Season Preview, but hey, give us a break. He didn’t get center eligibility until after we wrote it! But we sure didn’t see this offensive spark. All of a sudden, Big Ben is actually helping in offensive categories like FG% (55.3) and assists (eight against Toronto), and he’s scored in double-digits in every game this year. Sure he’s still pathetic from the stripe (42.9%), but progress is progress, people.

Weekend Review

As Worm likes to say, “lots of action. Lots. Of. Action.” And in the first weekend of games in the NBA, lots of action is what we got. The Bobcats got their first win in franchise history, Andrei Kirilenko had his second 8-block game of the year, and Shaq once again was held to under 30 minutes, due to foul trouble - though that didn’t stop him from going 3-for-12 from the line. What else important happened this weekend? Thanks for asking:

Minutia

You can’t help out a fantasy team if you’re not on the court! Early returns on minutes per game show that some guys who weren’t considered great bets for early-season minutes are getting more time than expected. For examle: Jeff McInnis is getting 42 minutes in Cleveland, while Eric Snow is seeing less than 30. Jarvis Hayes has passed the 40-minute mark in all 3 Wizards games this year. Ricky Davis has upped his minutes with the Celtics from 29 last year to 38 per game this year. Other notable high-minutes players: Mo Williams (38.0), Derek Anderson and Damon Stoudamire (37.0), and Ron Mercer and Rasual Butler (35.3).

Clank, Clank, Boom

The free throw. The easiest point in all of basketball. Unless, of course, you’re the bumbling New York Knicks, who have managed to shoot under 60% as a team. Is that even legal? While Stephon Marbury is holding up his end of the deal, shooting 78.6%, the rest of the squad is shooting a putrid 18-of-35 from the stripe, just 51%. The biggest culprit? Michael Sweetney (10-16), who is certainly off to a good start in other categories, but that’s a pretty bad number to start the year.

The Calves?

No team is playing it’s rookies more than the Bulls, and while they aren’t necessarily “winning” any “games”, we’re at least getting a chance to see what these young’uns can do. Luol Deng and Andres Nocioni seem to be legit starters on any fantasy squad, and should be picked up immediately if they’re somehow still on your waiver wire. Ben Gordon looks like he might need a little more work before finding a spot on your bench - though he’s probably already on someone’s roster. Finally, Chris Duhon is getting an absurd 33 minutes a game, and though he’s not doing much with it - just 3.5 ppg - it’s been enough that Dickie V has crowned him this year’s Rookie of the Year.

Mihm-balaya!

Hey, we over here at Fantasy Basketblog don’t like to toot our own horn (too much), but here’s what we said about Chris Mihm in our 2004 Position Review:Mihm could very quietly be a very solid center for your team if Vlade is out for a long time. He’s never seen more than 22 mpg, but with Divac out, it’s him and Medvedenko. If Mihm manages to find 32 minutes a night, he’ll give you 12/8 with 2 blocks. You could do much worse.” The lesson here? Read more fantasy basketblog!

Weekend Preview (11/5-11/7)

Houston and Sacramento are winless…while the Clippers and the Bulls are undefeated! What does this mean? Absolutely nothing. We could learn plenty this weekend though, as 20 of the league’s 30 teams play twice over the three-day span. We’ll witness the debuts of Andres Nocioni, Ben Gordon and Luol Deng in Chicago, see if Tracy McGrady can nudge his ppg over 20, and see if Michael Ruffin can even slow down the Diesel (probably not). Here are a few more things to watch on opening weekend:

Game Of The Week(end)
Sacramento at Houston (Sat. 8:30 EST) - While Tracy McGrady will be in the spotlight, many fantasy owners will be keeping their eyes on Sacramento’s own sharpshooter, Peja Stojakovic. He’s shooting only 27% from the field, and has only connected on 2 3-pointers in his first two games. On the other side of the ball, be sure to watch Maurice Taylor a bit closer that usual. He shot 2 3’s in his first game, making one, and shot another one in the next Houston game (which he missed). Nonetheless, if a borderline fantasy player (he gets you 12 pts, 5 boards, and decent FG% already) starts making a three every other game, he’s worth picking up.

The Battle of the Baby Bigs
The top two picks of the draft are getting off to a great start. Dwight Howard is making Kwame Brown cringe, and Emeka Okafor is living up to the “he’s ready” hype, while showing even more than expected on the offensive side of the ball. While Howard will certainly have his ups and downs, Okafor could be a very solid performer all year long. He only gets one shot to impress us this weekend, and it will be against Howard and the Magic on Saturday in Charlotte.

Finding the Net(s)
One game down for the Nets, one player in double figures other than Richard Jefferson. Don’t look for Zoran Planinic to keep lighting it up, however, if he only gets 21 mpg. The more likely contributor? How about Ron Mercer, who played 32 minutes (1 less than RJ), took 11 shots (again, just 1 less that RJ), and even got a block! Remember, until he got relegated to a bench role after being traded to the Pacers, Mercer was a 15-point, 3 board, 3 assist kinda guy. Not gonna win you any championships, but he’s worth a Util spot if he can keep getting 30+ minutes. Meanwhile, if this Richard Jefferson-led Nets team doesn’t remind you of the Juwan Howard-led Wizards of the late ’90s, you’re just not paying attention.

Give the Guy a Shot!
In a move only noticed by people who are way too tied up with basketball, the Bucks dropped one underachieving draft pick (Marcus Haislip) for another (Marcus Fizer). Not only does coach Terry Porter not have to learn a new name, but he might have added a nice weapon to his arsenal. Fizer is one of those guys that produces whenever he gets minutes - the problem is, he never actually gets those minutes. Over his career, he’s averaged over 23 points and 10.9 boards per 48 minutes. He was the 4th overall pick in the 2000 draft, and for some reason nobody wants to let the kid play. This probably won’t change in Milwaukee, but it’s something to keep in the back of your mind.

Very Early Thoughts

Get Jamaal Tinsley now, while you can. He is in for a monster year and will certainly be one of the top 15 PGs in the league. He won’t get 14 assists every night, but his career averages of 7.3 in 29.6 minutes translates to just over 9 per game if given 37 minutes. Getting those minutes was his problem in the past, but with a fat new contract and injuries to Anthony Johnson and Reggie Miller, he should be on the court a lot. Take away the 10 minutes of overtimes and he still had 35 minutes last night. He was taken, on average, behind people like Gary Payton, Tony Parker and Carlos Arroyo, and barring injury he’s a sure thing to easily out-produce all of them.

The 76ers could be a very frustrating team for fantasy owners. It’s important not to read too much into one game, especially if it’s the first game with a new coach, but at this point Allen Iverson and probably Kenny Thomas are the only ones guaranteed consistent minutes in Philly. O’Brien will mix and match until he finds a rotation he likes, but it’s possible he could end up going for something close to the Hubie Brown system, giving between 25-30 minutes a night to a handful of guys (Green, McKie, Korver, Dalembert, Jackson, Igoudala).

Watch out for Rasual Butler. He played a team high 43 minutes last night and nailed three 3-pointers. He shot 46% from long range last year and a hot start could make him a fixture in the starting lineup. Everyone thought Eddie Jones would be the main long-distance beneficiary of Shaq clogging the middle, but don’t count out Butler. If he wasn’t snagged after his season opener, grab him quickly.

The Knicks guards will be the only consistent performers on that team. Both Crawford and Marbury had excellent season debuts, and will see plenty of time. This is no surprise about Marbury, but there were questions about Crawford. He’ll still hurt your FG%, but you were expecting that anyway. The Knicks frontcourt goes six deep with the Thomases, Mohammed, Sweetney, Jerome Williams and rook Trevor Ariza, and that will hurt the value of everyone. I’d only feel comfortable starting Kurt Thomas out of all of those.

Don’t worry about the Rockets. A rough start couldn’t be that unexpected. McGrady will still end up in the top dozen as long as he stays healthy, and Yao will still be a top-5 center. Don’t panic.

Not every great first game will be matched. In particular: Juan Dixon, Chris Mihm and Bobby Simmons. The latter two could make decent short-term pickups, but know that you missed their best games.

Welcome To Fantasy Basketblog

In which our heroes tackle the pressing fantasy basketball issues of the day. Check back here weekdays for updates on who’s hot (and subsequently, who is ‘not’), who might be sitting around on your waiver wire, and who you should and shouldn’t be putting into your starting lineup.

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