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Afternoon Delight

For fantasy junkies that are also office lackeys, afternoon baseball is a godsend. There are few things better than a Thursday getaway day that sees five or six daylight games on the schedule. If you can make it through the morning, those games make the afternoon just zoom on by. But once baseball season ends, workday entertainment is relegated to the usual Rotoworld updates, Friendster stalking and perusing random bulletin boards. Oh, and work, too, sometimes. So that’s why today is a very special day. Because at 2 p.m., the Sonics and Hawks will tip-off, and with most offices being closed on New Year’s Eve, that will make a great diversion in terms of getting through those last hours of the week.

Or will it? It’s cool that there’s a game, but if you don’t have any players, it’s hard to be too interested. And there’s a good chance you won’t have any players, because there are only four guys in this game that are likely owned in all fantasy leagues – Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Antoine Walker and Al Harrington. But that means there are plenty of people to keep your eye on, and let’s take a quick look at a few of them.

Vladimir Radmanovic – It looks like in his fourth season the RadMan may finally be putting it together. But looks can be deceiving. His stats across the board are almost exactly the same as they were last year, slightly down in a few categories. He put together an impressive five-game streak earlier in the month where he got 34.8 mpg and used it well to average 14.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.4 spg and 2.8 3pg. But as is the case with all bench players, the up was followed by a down. His last two have seen him on the court for only 24 mpg, and his numbers have suffered accordingly. He does average 2 3pg and a little over a steal per game, so he does have value, but starting him will always be a risky proposition.

Luke Ridnour – An old FBB favorite, December wasn’t the best month for Ridnour. He kept racking up the assists, averaging nearly 7 per game, but his numbers dropped off everywhere else, and his shooting has been downright horrendous. After a 35% December, he’s down to 38% for the year, and even on 8 shots a game, that will hurt you plenty. His steals also dropped from 1.8 per game in November to 0.9 in December, and that’s the difference between a player with slight value to a player with marginal-at-best value. He’s remained in the starting lineup, which is a good sign, although his minutes have dropped slightly. Still, he could be due for a rebound, and since point guards are always worth keeping your eye, you should definitely do that with Ridnour.

Antonio Daniels – He was another player that experienced a drop off in December. Since he’s a bench player he’ll usually be too inconsistent to use, as he doesn’t do quite enough to have any value. His best asset is his ability to get to the line, as he is 33rd in the league in FTA per 48 minutes. That was great last year when he shot 84% from the line, but his 76% mark this year won’t offer much help. Should either him or Ridnour go down, the one left standing would have considerable value, sort of like the Speedy Claxton/Derek Fisher situation on Oakland.

Ronald Murray – Remember him from last year? Whenever a guy proves he can be a Top-40 fantasy player over the course of a whole month, he merits paying attention to. He hasn’t seen much action since his return from injury, but in 27 minutes on Dec. 22 he put up 15 points, 5 boards, 4 assists and 2 steals. He’s a player who always looks to put up numbers when he’s on the floor, and as we tell you almost every day, it’s all about opportunity. As a Ray Allen owner, I’d hate to see him go down, but I know that if that happened Nate McMillian gave Flip 35 mpg, I wouldn’t see as big a drop off in production as you’d think.

Tyronn Lue – The little man just arrived in Atlanta and hasn’t found his way into the starting lineup yet, but it might just be a matter of time. Then again, you never know with the Hawks. Remember that Lue did manage to have a bit of value while getting around 30 mpg last year in Orlando, as he was good from some 3s and assists. It might not happen on this pathetic team, and he’s never been a big source of assists, but there’s always some desperate owner out there, and Lue might turn out to be a stop-gap for that guy.

Josh Smith – He’s probably been scooped up by now, thanks to his nightly highlights on Sportscenter. He has started 10 straight games, which is very good, but after a four-game stretch that saw him over 30 minutes each night, he’s seen only 22.5 in his last two. Even throwing out his 10-block game, he has averaged nearly 2 per game in his other eight starts, and any player with that kind of a number who isn’t a center or power forward is worth stashing away. Hold off on starting him until he’s consistently seeing 30 mpg, but he could be a godsend for teams struggling in blocks.

Josh Childress – He has shown flashes throughout the year, but has not been able to turn that into consistent production, and that’s likely to continue. But with the Antoine Walker rumors continuing to make the rounds, Childress should be worth keeping an eye on. Even regardless of a ‘Toine departure, the Hawks are likely to want to get a closer look at their lottery pick as the year progresses. Still, he hasn’t shown enough offensive ability to make you think he could have any value. Think Jared Jeffries, but not even that far along. Exactly.

Wait For It…

An interesting trade just went down in the NBA. It wasn’t interesting in the sense that there were intriguing, big name players involved. It was intriguing in the sense that it sort of happened for no reason. The 2-24 Hornets get Jim Jackson and Bostjan Nachbar from the underachieving Rockets for David Wesley. Sure, the Hornets get to shed some salary and the Rockets get a guard they need, but this move isn’t really going to do much for either team. It seems like a trade that was made just to be made.

Which brings us to today’s topic. If you’ve found this site then it means you take your fantasy basketball pretty seriously. It is not something you take lightly. You don’t check your team once or twice a week – you check once or twice per hour. There’s nothing wrong with this, no matter what your girlfriend/wife/mom/dad/alternate personality might say. If you are going to compete, you compete to win. You want to gather as much information as possible to help you emerge victorious.

But there is a downside to this. The more information you have, the more you feel it necessary to constantly tweak your team. You always think you can get an advantage. And while this may be true, you have to fight that urge. For the most part, the players you have on your team are there for a reason – because you like them. Maybe in the first two rounds of the draft you take the best player available, even if you don’t love them, but for the most part after that you are getting players you specifically like. Hopefully you like them because they, y’know, good players. And assuming that’s the case, force yourself to remember that.

Basically, you don’t want to force yourself to make a deal just to make a deal. You spend so much time checking box scores and player notes and stuff like that, you feel like that has to translate into making moves. Sometimes it does, but that’s not always the case. If there’s an obvious upgrade to be made, do it. But unless it’s an obvious upgrade, try to restrain yourself. Because once you start making unnecessary moves, it can start a dangerous chain reaction. You make that first move, but then notice that another part of your team needs help, so you make another move. Soon you are constantly filling one hole and creating another, and your team is a mess. So just take a deep breath, and try to be as objective as possible. Sometimes clichés can be right: The best moves are the ones you don’t make.

With that out of the way, let’s talk about a fantasy superstar who returned to the hardwood recently: Baron Davis. As someone who has had Baron on my team far too much the past three years, I can only offer this advice – wait for him to get back into the starting lineup, and right after he has one of those 36-point, 6-three pointers, 11-assist, 5-steal games, think very hard about him. Yes, Chad Ford is talking about him being on the Clippers radar, and playing for his hometown team could inspire him, but it’s Chad Ford’s job to spout out crazy rumors so you will pay ESPN $5 per month to read those rumors. But the fact remains that Baron is a very injury-prone player who was unhappy on his team BEFORE they got off to a 2-24 start. He’s got top-10 fantasy talent when he’s healthy, and if you’ve been holding on to him for this long you probably want to see what he can do for you. But whereas before I was preaching patience, the same tactic might not work with Baron. Chances are you’ll get less than full value for him, but that’s to be expected. What’s better – getting someone with third round value for your early second rounder, or holding onto your early second rounder and watching him go down for the season, leaving you with a free agent to fill his place?

Weekend Review (12/24-12/26)

Other than the dramatic Lakers-Heat game on Saturday, this weekend was pretty slow in the NBA, with only 11 games being played. So this round of WR will take a chance to look back on the first 2 months of the season and reflect on some things that might not have caught your attention.

The Elite Matrix.

It happens every year. The big names – KG, Dirk, Kobe – go first in every fantasy draft, and somewhere around the middle of the first round, someone shrugs, sighs with disappointment, and selects Shawn Marion. Ho-hum. A nice all-around guy, but nothing special. I mean, he doesn’t even lead his own team in points, or assists, or 3’s, or FG% or FT% for that matter. He does everything OK, but nothing great. A nice pick, but kind of a boring player. Right?

Wrong. Look at just about any fantasy player rater (you’ve seen us rave about ESPN’s before in this space), and Marion will land in the Top 3. In fact, Yahoo! has him at #1. This, too, happens every year. Very quietly, Marion is perhaps the 2nd most consistent fantasy player in the land behind KG. He’s scored in double digits every game this year, gotten 9+ rebounds in 22 of 27 games, gets 2 blocks and nearly 2 steals a game, and – unlike KG – he hits a couple 3’s a game and knocks down his free throws.

Marion is a unique talent in the league. The list of players who average over 1.5 blocks and 1 3 pointer per game starts – and ends – with Marion. His versatility and box-score-filling ability means that he can be the centerpiece of just about any team, whether it’s guard-heavy or filled with bigs.

So, mark us down as being proponents of drafting Shawn Marion next year in front of big names like Tracy McGrady and Kobe Bryant. He is possibly worth the 2nd pick in the draft, although LeBron may take that spot, and he’s deserving of it as well. He might be the 3rd-most recognized player on his team, but that doesn’t mean he should be far from the top of your draft boards.

Passing: Good. Shooting: Also Good.

One of the long-standing ideas in fantasy basketball was that your FG% helpers were going to be centers. It made sense, because they usually shoot high-percentage shots, and thus they would offset your crazy, jump-shot taking guards who shot the ball at a 40% clip. And usually, this is still the case. Looking at the Player Rater, 11 of the top 12 in FG% are big men, with Steve Nash at #4 being the only PG to put the ball in the basket over half the time he shoots.

But that doesn’t mean you can’t find some quality shooters from the PG pool, and more so this year than usually. Like centers who shoot 3’s, or power forwards who grab steals, a marksman PG has a little extra value because he helps you in a category that most players in his position hurt you. Nash is obviously the most effective at this, although his 53.3% is a career high by far, and his career average is a more pedestrian 46.9%. If he’s able to keep it up, though, Nash has tremendous value and might be the best traditional PG on the market right now.

Some other PGs are also shooting the ball better than ever before. Dewayne Wade, for example, when he’s not busy outplaying Kobe, is shooting 49% from the field. Andre Miller is shooting a career best 48.6%, and Gary Payton’s 48.5% from the field is his best since 1994. If you need help in the FG% category, a strong-shooting point guard might come a little cheaper than that center you’ve got your eye on.

What’s “Average”?

What’s an “average” player? Taking away factors like position, injuries, what does an average fantasy player produce for his team? Well, it depends on how many players are in starting lineups in your league. So what I’ve done is taken two leagues that I’m in – one a 12-team league with 10 players in the starting lineup, and one an 8-team league, also with a 10-player starting lineup – and found what the “average” player is doing in each by dividing the totals accumulated in points, etc and dividing them by the total games played. So:

12-team league (120 starting players):

15.12 points, 6.07 rebounds, 3.26 assists, 0.80 3’s, 1.07 steals, 0.74 blocks, 45.1 FG%, 76.9 FT%.

8-team league (80 starting players):

16.46 points, 6.21 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.91 3’s, 1.09 steals, 0.75 blocks, 45.2 FG%, 77.2 FT%.

I was a little surprised to see how small the differences were between the two leagues. With 50% more players in the 12-team league, you’d figure the numbers would be weighed down pretty significantly. What this tells me is that while there are a limited number of superstars, there are plenty of decent players in the league. So don’t be afraid to trade a few decent guys for that big star – there’s always another decent player you can pick up on the waiver wires.

Punting For the Win.

We’re just over 1/4 of the way through the fantasy season, and at this point your team’s strengths and weaknesses should be pretty clear. Unless you undergo a major overhaul, the characteristics of the team you have will probably be pretty similar to those of the team you end the year with.

Now is the time to see if you have any glaring weaknesses. Let me give you a good example. Last year, around this time I was lamenting the fact that I had Tim Duncan, Baron Davis and Antoine Walker all on my team. Now, all of them can be good fantasy players, but also, last year each one couldn’t make a free throw to save their lives. I had two options. One was to punt the FT% category, and simply focus on improving everywhere else. The other was to try and climb out of the hole I had dug for myself in FT%. I tried option B, and it didn’t work. I traded away Duncan, and managed to end up with maybe 2 or 3 points in FT% while falling a little everywhere else.

The lesson was that maybe punting a category is a viable option. Had I held on to Duncan, and maybe traded some of my better FT shooters away for better all-around players, I could have come out on top of my league. A few pointers on punting, though:

· The earlier you decide to punt a category, the better. Making a decision like this in April probably won’t do you much good … deciding in December could put you in a great spot to improve your team.

· One you decide to punt, you MUST stick with your decision. It’s gonna take a miracle for you to make up a 50 block deficit, for example, in a month.

· Make all your moves on the trading block, not on the waiver wire. For example, let’s say you decide to punt assists, and you have Brevin Knight on your squad. Don’t drop drop him – he’s got plenty of value! Use him in a trade to see who needs assists, and get something back that can help you.

Now, with that said, let’s take a category-by-category look at who you may want on your team if you decide to punt:

Blocks: Brad Miller, Eddy Curry, PJ Brown, Marc Jackson.
If you’re going to punt blocks, you can afford to get some of the most spineless big men on the planet onto your roster. Of the above players, none averages more than 1 block per game, but each one scores reasonably well and can help you in other categories.

Steals: Michael Redd, Corey Maggette, Sam Cassell, Damon Jones.
Punting steals is a great idea, particularly if you’re looking for help in the 3-pointers category. Of the guys above, none gets more than a steal a game, but all are pretty valuable fantasy players.

Assists: Chucky Atkins, Damon Jones, Mike Bibby, Chauncey Billups, Gilbert Arenas.
When punting assists, you can go cheap or pricey. Going cheap, you can get a guy like Atkins who will help you a bit in 3’s. Or go for the big shot, and get Bibby, Billups, or Arenas, PG’s who have a ton of value, but don’t get 6 assists a game.

Rebounds: Peja Stojakovic, Kyle Korver, Mike Miller, Mehmet Okur, Cliff Robinson. Rebounds are a very tough category to punt. Guys who get rebounds are generally the guys who will help you in blocks, FG%, etc. That said, your best bet is to go with either the stay-outside, catch-and-shoot SF type, or the for-some-reason-they-can’t-catch-the-ball centers.

3PM: Dwayne Wade, Steve Francis, Andre Miller, Speedy Claxton, Richard Hamilton.
3’s are a great category to punt. You can find really valuable guys who would be first-round picks if they’d only hit a couple 3’s a game, like Francis or Wade, but because they don’t, they’re 2nd or 3rd round values. If you punt 3’s, they become first round values that can be had on the cheap.

Points: Andrei Kirilenko, Chauncey Billups, Steve Nash, Brad Miller, Rafer Alston, Ben Wallace. If you’re thinking about punting points, you’re probably in trouble. I wouldn’t recommend it, and it probably can’t be done, but if you do, here are some players that provide a ton of non-scoring value, and some will even help in 3’s.

FG%: Kobe Bryant, Chauncey Billups, Allen Iverson, Jamal Crawford.
You get the idea. Find the ballhogs, and put ‘em on your squad. This one’s easy.

FT%: Baron Davis, Tim Duncan, Antoine Walker, Shaquille O’Neal, Jamaal Tinsley, Ben Wallace.
Probably the best category to punt. You can find stud centers, point guards, all-around guys, defensive stoppers, just about any kind of player you want.

So there you have it. Hopefully we’ve inspired you to go out there, and give up!

The Killers

No, this won’t be a column about the horrible band responsible for “Somebody Told Me,” easily 2004’s most annoying song. Believe me, I could make that happen, and it would be long and there would be plenty of vitriol. Instead, today we’ll focus on a different set of killers – guys that will murder you in FG%. It’s easy to dismiss FG%, but it would be foolish to do so. Since it’s not a cumulative statistic, it’s sometimes disregarded, but it counts just as much as points, assists or steals. And because it’s not a cumulative statistic, it’s sometimes harder to quantify how much someone is helping or hurting you. There’s obviously ESPN’s indispensable player rater, which you should all be familiar with.

The players covered here will include plenty of studs, and I sure wouldn’t mind having most of these players on my team. But the fact remains that if you have more than one of the guys listed below, it will take near perfect management for you to win your league. Having two or more of the players below will almost certainly leave you in the bottom three in FG%, and it’s hard to win a league with three or less points in a category. In my league, the first place team does have just 2 points in blocks, but he also has at least 6 of the other 7 categories and has 6.5 in the other. But it’s almost easier to do that with blocks than FG%. Why? Because if you have two of the guys listed below, they were probably two of your top three or four draft picks. That means you are probably left thin in other areas, most likely blocks and rebounds, since almost all of these players are guards.
The Main Offenders
Damon Stoudamire, Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant, Kirk Hinrich, Jamal Crawford, Tracy McGrady, Quentin Richardson

If you own one of these guys, you can’t afford to have anyone else on the list. It’s truly amazing how bad Stoudamire has been this year. Besides having huge drop-offs in every cumulative category, his shooting has been about 33% worse than anyone else in the league. At least AI and Kobe dominate in points, assists and steals, although Damon has turned it around since he’s been benched. Kobe’s 2-for-16 last night is a perfect example of how he hurts you. He’s getting dangerously close to Antoine Walker territory, believe it or not. Well, peak ‘Toine maybe. But check it out:

Kobe 04-05: 27.0/7.5/7.4, 1.3 spg, 1.3 bpg, 1.7 3pg, 39% shooting on 20.5 fg
Toine 00-01: 23.4/8.9/5.5, 1.7 spg, 0.6 bpg, 2.7 3pg, 41% shooting on 21.2 fg

If you can get someone like Peja and a decent big man for Kobe, it might be worth it. Hinrich might be somewhat to look at dealing now that he’s strung together a few good games. He’ll continue to get you plenty of 3s and assists, but as someone who has him on my team, checking the box score and seeing “5-for-15” every night really hurts. Beware of Quentin Richardson, especially those of you in Yahoo leagues, where he’s ranked ridiculously high. To get him at this point you’ll have to give up something of significant value, and even if you are desperate for 3s, he will bring you down as much in FG% as he will help you from long range.

Not Much Better
Jerry Stackhouse, Eddie Jones, Larry Hughes, Carmelo Anthony, Rafer Alston, Antoine Walker, Chauncey Billups
People who picked up Jerry Stackhouse looking for a lift in points are just getting some DNPs to go with his brutal FG%. Avoid him at absolutely all costs. You should know better. Eddie Jones is right up there with Damon Stoudamire when it comes to players who have just been brutal. At least Larry Hughes is leading the league in steals and Rafer Alston is a 3s, assists and steals machine. Speaking of Alston, he’s probably not someone you’re looking to trade since he’s outperformed expectations, meaning you have a certain attachment to him. And while he will have the ball in his hands more with Carter gone, that just means more shots that won’t be falling. If I can pair him with a weaker player and get someone like Bibby and another solid player, I’d do it. It’s just a matter of time before Antoine joins the above list. You’re playing with fire if you’ve been keeping him around this long.

Weekend Review

Air Jersey?

It should come as no surprise that we’re devoting the weekend review to a look at Friday night’s big trade between the Raptors and the Nets. First, let’s give a few bumps up and down in value for a couple players:

Vince Carter – No bump. While he’s playing with the greatest PG of our generation, said PG is only playing about 25 mpg and could be on his way out of town. Plus, Richard Jefferson should still be the first option in Jersey. Once he comes back from injury, 16/3/3 looks about right, if maybe a little low, but that’s what he was doing in Toronto.

Eric Williams – Bump down. he’s not going to get 35 mpg anymore, and might be lucky to get 25, which should take him off of all fantasy rosters.

Richard Jefferson – Bump up. Another offensive weapon for RJ means less double teams, and a higher FG%. Plus, Charles Barkley has a lot of faith in him.

Rafer Alston – Bump up. Unless he retires, of course. Skip To My Lou has seen his numbers go up a bit across the board since Carter went down with injury. None of the guys the Raptors acquired will have the ball in their hands much, so that means Rafer will have the ball in his hands even more.

Alonzo Mourning – Huge bump down. He’s never going to play for the Raptors. Word is he’s headed to Miami after negotiating a buyout. He won’t play for more than 15 mpg there, and there’s no way he’s going to have any value over the course of the season at this point.

Donyell Marshall, Jalen Rose, Morris Peterson – To soon to tell. Who’s getting minutes? Who’s still on the trading block? Who knows. While you can fairly easily project the Nets’ minute-distribution, the Raptors are a jigsaw puzzle at this point.

There has been a big, massive hole left in the Net’s frontline after this deal. You’ve got to figure they’re going to sign some big guys soon enough. But until they do, someone is going to have to step up. They’ve got 3 guys – Jason Collins, Nenad Kristic and Brian Scalabrine to fill 2 spots (C and PF). Who’s going to step up? Let’s see:

Jason Collins – Looking at this guy’s line, it’s shocking that he actually has a contract to play on an NBA team. How a man can be 7 feet tall but average only 8.7 rebounds per 48 minutes is beyond me. His 1.36 blocks per 48 mins rank 30th amongst NBA centers, and his 9.2 points per 48 mins rank 33rd. So, to recap: If he got 48 mpg, he’d rack up 9 points, 9 boards and 1 block. He’s only going to get about 35 minutes at best. If 7 points, 7 boards and a block are good enough to put him on your team, then by all means, go for it.

Nenad Krstic – Krstic’s numbers are much better than Collins’. Per 48 minutes, he’s been good for 18.2/10.4 and 3.3 blocks. Granted, he’s only played in 18 games this season and averaged 11.3 minutes. In the 3 games where he’s gotten over 20 minutes, though, he’s averaged 12.6/5.6 with 1.3 blocks. If he manages to get 35 mpg, he’ll be worth your while. He’s got the most promise of any New Jersey big man right now.

Brian Scalabrine – Scalabrine, other than having the reddest hair in the league since Dennis Rodman, really has little promise as a fantasy player. He does hit a 3 every other game or so, but is pretty uninvolved in the offense, scoring only 5.1 ppg in 22 minutes so far this year. Even if he gets good minutes, like he did Friday against Memphis, he probably won’t have much value.

On a minor non-fantasy, editorial note, if the Nets are able to turn around and ship out Kidd for a decent PG and a big (like Nene and Andre Miller, as has been rumored), they come out way ahead in this deal. The fact that they were able to get anyone to take ‘Zo off their hands is huge for them. A starting 5 of Miller, Carter, Jefferson, Nene, and Krstic would win a pretty good amount of games in the East.

The Raptors, on the other hand, now are basically building their team around a mentally unstable PG in Alston, and an admittedly strong prospect in Chris Bosh. They panicked with this deal, and probably could have gotten a lot more for Air Canada than a grumpy old center, some role players and draft picks. So there.

Weekend Preview (12/17-12/19)

Signs Of Life

No one has ever mentioned parity as being a problem in the NBA, and a number of teams were written off before the season even started, and for good reason. The Hornets, Hawks, and other cellar-dwellars are struggling to find their niche. Recently, though, a couple of the worst teams in the NBA have started actually competing. What’s turned it around for these teams, and what does it mean for your fantasy team? Let’s take a look.

New Jersey Nets: The most obvious reason the Nets have started to turn it around (they’ve won 4 of their last 6) is the return of Jason Kidd. But keep in mind, he is only playing about 20 minutes a game. There have been other guys stepping up, like Eric Williams, who has really improved over the last few games. His scoring is up 6 points in December, and he’s starting to hit 3’s regularly. He’s finally becoming a guy you can look at as a possible pickup. Keep a close watch on Williams, and Brian Scalabrine, who got Alonzo Mourning’s starting spot, tonight in Memphis and Sunday at Toronto.

Chicago Bulls: How this team has managed to win 4 of it’s last 6, including huge upsets over Minnesota and Cleveland, is beyond me. Coach Scott Skiles has finally settled on a lineup, though, going with the crazy idea of actually playing his best players. Even more outrageous is that he’s using their strengths! Eddy Curry won’t ever average 10 boards or 2 blocks, but he can score 20 with his eyes closed (and his mouth full of food). Tyson Chandler has turned into a great spark off the bench, and is a defensive juggernaut. He’s got 10 blocks in his last 2 games (including 7 last night), and is averaging 12.1 boards in December – in just 30 minutes. Finally, Kirk Hinrich is showing signs of life, too. His 28 points last night was the first time he topped 20 points since November 21, though he was still just 2 of 9 from long range. See if these guys can keep it up, Saturday at home against the Pacers.

Cheap-O Blocks

As every fantasy player knows, blocks can be the toughest category to fill up on while not hurting yourself in other areas. Here are some guys who are starting to look like they might fill your need for blocks, while not killing you anywhere else:

Josh Smith, F (ATL) - This high school rookie was handed the starting spot on the lowly Hawks 4 games ago, and he’s starting to show some promise. Throwing away an embarrasing 14-minute, zero-point performance against the Pacers on Tuesday, Smith has averaged 12.3/7.3, with 2.3 blocks and 1.6 steals in his other 3 starts, and averaging just over 30 minutes a game. It’s hard to know what to expect from a high school rookie, but if he keeps his starting spot and minutes, don’t hesitate to grab him off waivers and stick him on your bench.

David Harrison, C (IND) - Harrison is obviously seeing more minutes due to the Pacers being without their top 9 players. But over the last few games, he has really come on. Getting 30 minutes a game, Harrison’s biggest asset is his blocks, averaging a fantastic 3.2 per game over his last five, but he’s also putting up 11 points, 5.4 boards, and shooting 60% from the field. To stay effective, he needs to stay out of foul trouble 5 or more fouls in 3 of his last 4 games), but his minutes haven’t dropped at all since the return of Jeff Foster, so he should stay useful until Jermaine O’Neal comes back.

Game of the Week(end)
Washington at Phoenix (Sat, 9pm EST) – The over/under on this game has to be around 230 points. The Suns are by far the highest-scoring team in the league, with Washington 4th, and each team gives up over 97 points per game. This game doesn’t necessarily have a ton of fantasy implications, but we’re recommending it just because it’s fun to watch a couple of teams shoot the lights out.

New! Updated! Top 20!

We’re going to try to do this every couple of weeks, just to keep an eye on the elite of the elite. This is taking into account what we think these players’ value is over the course of the season. So …

1. Kevin Garnett, SF (MIN) – The last time someone averaged 20 points and 15 rebounds in a season? 1982-83, Moses Malone. I think. KG’s on pace (22.9/15.3).

2. Dirk Nowitzki, F/C (DAL) – We’re talking long-term here. Dirk is setting career highs in points and boards this year. His recent struggles shouldn’t be much reason for worry, though he might end up missing a game or two.

3. LeBron James, G/F (CLE) – Remember how everyone thought his jumper would be a problem? He’s shooting 50.6% from the floor. An 8-category stud.

4. Shawn Marion, SF (PHO) – It’s not a coincidence that he’s at the top of the Player Rater after every season. He deserves Top-5 respect.

5. Tim Duncan, F/C (SAS) – Don’t look now, but Timmy’s shooting 76.3% from the line this month. Thus, he moves up in our rankings.

6. Kobe Bryant, SG (LAL) – We yakked about Kobe plenty this week. His 7.6 boards and 1.2 blocks from the SG spot are spectacular. His .397 FG% is horrendous.

7. Tracy McGrady, SG (HOU) – In December, his points are up 5.8, steals up 1.7, rebounds up 1.2, 3PM up 1.3, and FG% is up 1.3%. It’s just taking some time.

8. Ray Allen, SG (SEA) – Everybody’s falling all over themselves in praise of Allen, but the interesting thing is, his numbers were even better last year.

9. Amare Stoudamire, F/C (PHO) – He’s shooting 57% from the field. He’s averaging 25 points, 9 boards, and 1.8 blocks. Just unreal. And nowhere to go but up.

10. Dwayne Wade, G (MIA) – Just the fact that he played through an injury yesterday, where last year he would have sat out, moves him into the first round.

11. Steve Nash, PG (PHO) – Nash for MVP? Who, other than LeBron perhaps, has had a bigger affect on his team?

12. Stephon Marbury, PG (NYK) – Very quietly, he’s keeping his owners happy while playing under the radar in New York. His percentages are both career-highs.

13. Paul Pierce, GF (BOS) – He just can’t seem to crack that upper echelon. He’s a great player, but still well behind James/Bryant/McGrady.

14. Peja Stojakovic, SF (SAC) – He’s in the top 5 in FT% and 3PM. He’s not even in the top 20 in any other categories. A disappointing year so far.

15. Andrei Kirilenko, F (UTH) – We didn’t have the heart to keep him out of the top 15. A top player, but his return date keeps getting pushed back. Not a good sign.

16. Allen Iverson, G (PHI) – Not only are his assists up to 7.4 per game, but his FT% is at a career-high 83.1%.

17. Steve Francis, PG (ORL) – A nice return to his pre-Van Gundy numbers is encouraging, but if he hit more 3’s he could jump a few spots.

18. Elton Brand, PF (LAC) – What happened? Under 10 boards, under 2 blocks, and Mr. Consistency is having problems. He should pick it up soon, though.

19. Ben Wallace, F/C (DET) – Is he really gonna average 10 points all year? I’d rather see him get his boards and blocks up to 2001/2002 levels.

20. Rashard Lewis, SF (SEA) – His scoring, 3’s, and blocks are all at career-highs. This might be the last year you could draft him in the 4th round or later.

Mo’ Pete, Mo’ Problems

Every year, at some point, Morris Peterson goes on a little run. Nothing great, but enough that you’ve at least got to THINK about picking him up. Well, that time is here. With Vince Carter hurting, and Jalen Rose playing truly terrible basketball in 4 of his last 5 games, MoPete is all of a sudden getting minutes. In the Raptors’ last 3 games, Peterson has averaged 33 minutes, putting up 15.3/5.3 with 1.3 steals and 2.3 3PM. Is it worth it to take a risk this time? Possibly. Let’s look at why:

- Vince Carter could be out for awhile with his Achilles problem. At first it was only supposed to be 2 games, but then the Raptors stuck him on the injured list. And this quote: “Once your Achilles’ is done, that’s pretty much a tough comeback … I’m just going to take precautions and make sure it’s healthy” doesn’t sound like a guy who’s rushing to get back on the court.

- Any trade the Raptors make will likely involve both Carter and Rose. The Raptors have apparently insisted that in order to get Carter, any trade partner would have to take on Rose’s contract as well. And it’s unlikely that they would get 2 swingmen back in the deal. That could mean Peterson sees more time in the lineup just by default.

- You mean you really think someone else on this team will step up and take minutes away from MoPete? Don’t be silly. Matt Bonner? Lamond Murray? Pape Sow? No, no, no. Maybe Donyell Marshall could take away a little time on the court if the Raptors decide to go big more often, but that shouldn’t affect Peterson.

If you’ve got an extra roster spot lying around, I’d go ahead and grab him, just to see if he keeps getting minutes. But don’t drop anything of value for him just yet. Wait a few more games, see what happens with Carter. Peterson’s upside is pretty limited, and it’s not going to be a move that wins you any championships. You can afford to be conservative on this one.

Golden State of Mind

Don’t look now, but the Golden State Warriors are starting to play some good ball. They’ve won four of their past six games, coach Montgomery seems to finally be settling on a rotation, and most important to fantasy players, they are scoring some serious points. The team is averaging just over 93 ppg on the season, but in the past six contest they are just over 106 ppg. When there’s that much scoring going on, there are going to be plenty of players with value. And the best thing with the Warriors is that their recent success has come by shortening their bench. Derek Fisher is on the IL for the time being, Dale Davis and Adonal Foyle have become non-entities, and Calbert Cheaney is basically an afterthought. So that leaves only six players seeing serious time. Let’s take a look.

Speedy Claxton
He merits mentioning two days in a row, but if he’s still available in your league, you certainly don’t need this Web site to help you out. In the two games since Fisher went down, Speedy has gone off for 18 ppg, 5 rpg, 8 apg, 1 3pg, 3.5 spg and .5 bpg. But it’s also important to note that in the three games before Fisher went to the IL, Speedy was seeing more time and doing more with it. After four games in which he never saw 30 minutes, the three games prior to Fisher’s injury saw Speedy average about 32 mpg. And in those games he was good for 13.3/3.8/6. Basically, this is Speedy’s chance to take the starting PG gig and run with it. If he continues to be as effective as he’s been, there will be no reason for Fisher to cut into his PT as much when he comes back. Claxton won’t get 40 mpg, but he could stay around 32-33, which would be enough to make him a solid #3 PG for most teams.

Jason Richardson
There’s not much to say about Richardson. He’s the clear #1 option on this team and is a very solid fantasy contributor. But he’s not a stud. Studs help you dominate a category. The category Richardson is most helpful in is 3-pointers and there are 20 people better than him there. He won’t kill you anywhere (although his FT% sure is frustrating), but he’s a definite complementary piece, not someone to lead you to a championship.

Cliff Robinson
Don’t ask how, just enjoy it. Every year we want to write Uncle Cliffy off, but every year he manages to contribute. After four consecutive years of decreased scoring and no real role on the team, it looked like this would finally be the year that Cliff was worthless. But then Mike Montgomery realized that Dale Davis sucks and Adonal Foyle really sucks, and gave C-Rob the starting center job. Realize that if you start him at center, you will need to make up for the rebounds elsewhere. He’s never in his career averaged even 7 boards a game, and Richardson, Murphy and Dunleavy are all exceptionally good rebounders, so don’t except much more than 5-6 even with heavy minutes. He will get you blocks, though, as he’s racked up a very impressive 9 in his last 5 as a starter. And he will get you 3s, although not always 7 every two games. Over the past 15 days he’s 35th best player in the league. It’s a common refrain with a hot player on a hot team, but ride him while you can.

Troy Murphy
Murphy was a popular sleeper this year, based on the fact that he missed/was ineffective most of last season, but astute observers remembered his double-double average in 2002. And he hasn’t disappointed those people, as he’s back in double-double land, averaging 16 and 10. Still, if you have him on your team, he’s probably killing you. Besides marginal value in FT% (now that he’s past his early season yips) and points and negligible value in 3s, Murphy slaughters you everywhere else. He gets no steals, no assists and has his 41% from the field and .5 bpg are just unacceptable from the PF position. And this is all while he’s playing just about the best ball of his life. Find a team desperate for boards and ship him out.

Mike Dunleavy
We mentioned Dunleavy a while back as someone with just too much promise to give up on, and suggested grabbing him and stashing him away. We like it when we’re right. His last two games haven’t seen him scoring too much, but the most important thing is that he’s seen 38 and 41 minutes. In the last four he’s averaging 15.5/9.5/2.8 with 1.3 3s and 2.3 steals on 47% shooting. Now that’s more like it. Those are the kind of well-rounded numbers that people have been hoping for since he was drafted. Will he keep it up? It’s no sure thing, but in his third year, with his team hitting its stride, his chances are better than ever.

Michael Pietrus
Last night was the game that should make people really take notice of Pietrus. In just 20 minutes of play, he was good for 20 points, 6 boards, 2 3s, an assist and two blocks. That is good stuff. It seems that the Golden State front office is enamored with him, and if you were to believe Chad Ford, the Warriors would like to get rid of Dunleavy and give his minutes to Pietrus. Then again, if you were to believe Chad Ford, there would be 16 blockbuster trades made every day, with Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett the only players not changing teams. Pietrus is still raw, but at 10 points and 1.1 3pg in 17 mpg, he’s shown he can score. He certainly needs to improve on his meager two steals the entire season, but since he averaged .6 in only 14 mpg last year, there’s reason to think that will happen. Even he gets a starting job, he’ll the team’s fifth option and of borderline value.

48

When Derek Fisher went to the IL recently, I immediately grabbed Speedy Claxton and inserted him into my lineup. It may seem like a minor move, but then Claxton notched 7 steals in his first game without Fisher. While we can’t expect 7 every game, you can expect Claxton to rack them up, as he is 12th in the league in steals per 48 minutes. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at some other likely-available players who are among the leaders in categories per 48 minutes.

Points
Bobby Jackson
Danny Fortson
Juan Dixon

As expected with this category, the entire top 20 is filled with top-flight superstars. Bobby Jackson and Juan Dixon were two of the only bench players on there last year (I believe Flip Murray was there, too), and now they are joined by Fortson. This serves as a reminder that should something happen to Mike Bibby or Doug Christie, Jackson will do some serious scoring. It’s hard to see the Wizards get to a point where Dixon will have a starting role.

Rebounds
Danny Fortson
Reggie Evans
Dan Gadzuric
Loren Woods
Alan Henderson

Fortson appears again, and he’s clearly someone who would be a very useful player if given the time. But it’s not totally Nate McMillian’s fault, as Fortson would easily lead the league in another category not listed here – fouls per 48 minutes. His teammate Reggie Evans is probably available, but it’s obvious that the two of them are canceling each other out. Were one of them to go down and the other would see 30 mpg, they could offer some serious board help. Dan Gadzuric is one to watch out for. Take out a stinker against Miami in which he got into early foul trouble, and he’s averaging 8.3 and 10.8 in his last four to go with 1.5 blocks. If he can somehow work his way into the 32-33 mpg range, he’d certainly be worth a look.

3P
Fred Hoiberg
Brian Cook
Juan Dixon
Troy Hudson

Brian Cook has had some buzz over the past few weeks, mainly due to his out-of-nowhere long-distance game. If something were to happen to Caron Butler, he could be very worthwhile. Troy Hudson makes the first of his two appearances. If Sam Cassell were to miss some time and Hudson was able to take over all of his minutes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hudson have more value than Cassell.

Blocks
Stephen Hunter
Dikembe Mutombo
David Harrison
Al Jefferson
Jerome James
Shawn Bradley
Dan Gadzuric
Chris Andersen
Franciso Elson

Lots of names here, but only a few worth remembering. Guys like Hutner and Mutombo just aren’t going to get the opportunity. Al Jefferson is one to remember for later in the year. If it looks like he’s going to become a regular part of the rotation, he could be helpful. Gadzuric shows up again. Remember, he had an extremely productive two-week stretch last year and might be ready to embark on another one soon. Chris Andersen might get a chance in New Orleans since they have no players. They actually had to turn to Lonny Baxter. Never a good sign.

Assists
Rick Brunson
Maurice Williams
Howard Eisley
Chris Duhon
Troy Hudson
Milt Palacio

Rick Brunson? Yeah, Rick Brunson. His rate stats are even more impressive than the surprising Marko Jaric, but even with Jaric slumping lately, it’s hard to see him having an impact. Maurice Williams has probably been floating on and off rosters all year, as he’ll follow a great game with a lousy one. If something happens to Mike James again, he’s a no-brainer pick up. Don’t even think about Chris Duhon. At the Bulls-Wizards game we were at a few weeks ago, I’ve never seen an NBA player so unwilling to shoot the ball.

Steals
Ruben Patterson
Devin Harris
Marquis Daniels
Rick Brunson
Andre Igoudala
Eddie Gill
Speedy Claxton

Keep an eye on those Mavs. Devin Harris is obviously done for now, but he could still have some value down the road. And certainly don’t forget about Marquis Daniels, especially as we enter the trading season. If he gets shipped out of the Big D, he will be one to look at.