The 2003 draft may very well go down as one of the richest draft classes in NBA history. With a couple of legitimate superstars going early in the first round, a number of quality starters later in the draft, and even a couple of nice surprises in the second round.

However, it’s definitely still way to early to tell. Remember, out of the 29 players selected in the first round, 10 of them were under 20 years old when they were drafted. While some players can already be labeled definite successes (LeBron and Dwayne Wade, for example), the jury is still out on a number of these second-year players, and figuring out who is a future stud can certainly help out your fantasy team down the road. Lets take a look at some guys who are showing promise now in their second season, and who might be slipping a little bit.

Movin’ On Up

Brian Cook, PF (LAL) - One of the most surprising stats so far this year is Cook’s 1.2 3PM per game. He’s hitting on 37.7% of his 3 point attempts, which is better than he did even in college. A power forward who can light it up from long range is fantasy gold. His other stats (8.5/3.7, with .4 steals and .5 blocks) are decent considering he still gets under 20 mpg. He’s not roster-worthy just yet, but he looks like he could be a Donyell Marshall clone somewhere down the line.

Josh Howard, G/F (DAL) - Yet another 4-year college player showing steady improvement in the pros. Howard has gained the trust of Mavs coach Don Nelson, to the tune of 35 mpg this year. He’s an all-around fantasy helper, with 11.6/7.1, with .6 3’s, 1.3 steals, and .6 blocks. At this point, he’s getting all the minutes he’s gonna get, so he’s going to have to improve his play to be very valuable, but he’s already worth a roster spot, and on a less-crowded team could be worth a mid-round pick next year.

Luke Ridnour, PG (SEA) - Well, it’s been a good couple weeks since we’ve talked up Luke Ridnour. Here’s a stat we like to see for a young PG. His assist/turnover ratio of 3.6 is 3rd in the league among those getting over 5 apg, behind Brevin Knight and Damon Stoudamire. Nothing irks coaches more than seeing their PG turn the ball over, so this is a nice sign that Ridnour is going to keep seeing lots of playing time. His steals (1.6) and 3’s (0.9) so far this year point to him being a classic fantasy PG down the road in, in the same vein as Rafer Alston.

Settling In

Kirk Hinrich, PG (CHI) - Hinrich was one of the most hyped young players in the league going into this year’s fantasy drafts. Hey, we were guilty of it, too. But maybe his first-year numbers are pretty much what he’s going to do. True, the Bulls are a classic “team in disarray”, so maybe he hasn’t found his groove, but his stats are SO similar to last year that you can’t help but think that maybe he’ll just be a nice PG, but no star. Which is fine, but he’s no longer an early pick; look for him to go in the 5th to 7th rounds of your fantasy draft for years to come.

Falling Off the Face of the Earth

Chris Kaman, C (LAC) - If you didn’t see this one coming, you’ve gotta re-evaluate your ability to project NBA success. Every year there’s another 7-footer who comes out of nowhere to become a top-10 pick, and then proceeds to be a major bust. You know, Joel Przybilla (can you believe he was the 9th overall pick in 2000?), Desagana Diop, Nik Tskitishvili, someone like that. And every year, the Clippers draft somebody who just flat-out stinks. Enter Kaman. Though he’s been fighting injuries this year, Kaman’s numbers (2.4/2.9, .4 blocks in 12.1 minutes) are flat-out awful. Don’t even think about picking him up any time soon.

Marcus Banks, PG (BOS)
Reece Gaines, PG (HOU)
Troy Bell, PG (N/A)
Dahntay Jones, G (MEM)
All of these guys were taken with between the 13th and 20th picks in the 2003 draft. Banks is buried behind Gary Payton in Boston, but they wouldn’t have traded for Payton if they thought they had a starter already in Banks. Gaines is just starting to get a little time in Houston, but 13.2 minutes and 3 ppg is certainly not enough to be on any fantasy roster. Jerry West undoubtedly blew it with his 2 selections, as Bell has already found his way out of the league, which is impressive for a mid-first round pick, and Jones couldn’t even get 20 minutes on the Grizzlies, when Hubie Brown gave 20 minutes to anything with a pulse. Now that Mike Fratello is in charge, Jones has been a DNP-CD in 6 of the last nine games, with a total of 8 minutes. Ouch.

Team Chemistry
… and why it often doesn’t matter when it comes to fantasy basketball.

In the latest episode of “As The Kobe Turns” (”Kobes of our Lives”? “General Kobe”?) Kobe Bryant is now crying about how Karl Malone was hitting on his wife. Meanwhile, he refers to his teammates work as playing for “me”, and word around town is that said teammates aren’t too thrilled with Kobe at all. What does this mean for you, the fantasy basketball enthusiast?

Absolutely nothing.

Listen, as much as Kobe might be a terrible teammate in real life, he’s still a Top-5 talent when it comes to fantasy basketball. His numbers - other than FG% - are up across the board this year, averaging 26.8/7.5/6.9, with over a 3, a steal and a block. He’s getting to the line 11.2 times per game and knocking down 81% of his shots from the stripe. His shooting percentage has taken a major hit (now at 39% following his 6-of-23 performance Sunday night), but he’s still one of the best fantasy players on the planet. You have to be worried about his plantar fasciitis, but right now, with all the controversy surrounding him you may be able to get him at a little cheaper than his actual value.

Shopping Big and Tall

Centers. You need ‘em. We’ve got ‘em. While there have been the usual number of fantasy busts at center this year, there have been a few guys stepping it up lately that you might be able to find on your waiver wire. The following centers had standout (for them) weekends, so we’ll bring them up now. Most of these guys should already have been picked up, but if not, go ahead and grab ‘em.

Clifford Robinson, GSW
How much upside can there be for a 38-year old center who’s best year was 1995 and hasn’t averaged 5 rebounds since 1997? Not much. But nonetheless, he’s one of the few centers who has the ability to help your team’s 3-point production. Over his last 5 games he’s started to get more minutes (30 per game, up from about 20), and in December he’s averaged 1 3-pointer, 1.6 steals and 1.6 blocks. His 11.1 points won’t help you, and his 3.7 boards from the center spot will definitely hurt, but there are certainly worse options. His 4 3’s, 3 steals, 2 blocks and 21 points on Sunday are about as good as you’ll get from Robinson, but that’s pretty damn good.

Brendan Haywood, WAS
A fantasy basketblog favorite. Haywood is slowly becoming a very dependable center, both in real life and in fantasy. Haywood is among the league leaders in blocks, which means he definitely won’t be your waiver wires, but his strong play of late has gotten him more crunch-time minutes and may have solidified his spot as the go-to center once Etan Thomas comes back from injury. His stats so far in December (10.3/9.2 with 2.8 blocks on 56.8% shooting) would look good on just about any team as a second center. A better option than Clifford Robinson, to be sure, he had back-to-back 17 point efforts this weekend.

Nazr Mohammad, NYK
Here’s a classic case of a guy who just really needs minutes, and he can be an asset for your fantasy squad. While his per-minute averaged have hardly changed at all, his 29 mpg are a career-high, and as a result, his numbers are at a career high as well. 12.8/9.5 with a block, a steal, 56.6% from the field? That’s a nice looking second center. Not as much upside has Haywood, but a fantasy asset, definitely. His 20-point, 11-rebound night on Friday is a sign of things to come, and he should have a few more of those nights this year, though they will be sporadic.

It’s All About Effort

Eventually, that’s what it comes down to. I know, you’ve heard all the cliches, “giving 110%”, “leaving yourself on the court,” etc. etc. But it’s true, and nowhere is this more true than on your fantasy basketball team. Now, don’t get all worried that I’m going to suggest you need excercise. What I mean is, winning a fantasy basketball championship is all about the effort that your players put out on the court. That’s right, you can keep sitting on the sofa. It’s your PLAYERS that need to put forth the effort. Some can motivate themselves every night (Ben Wallace or Allen Iverson, for example). Some put up nice numbers even though you know they could really care less (Chris Webber). But often, the best fantasy gems are players that are more motivated now than ever, and thus putting up better numbers than ever.

Here’s a great example. Larry Hughes is in a contract year. Last Saturday night, the Wizards are putting away the Bulls. There’s no more than 2 seconds on the clock, and Andres Nocioni is shooting meaningless free throws. He hits the first. He misses the second. Antawn Jamison, waiting directly under the basket, puts his hands up to grab the loose ball. No one on the Bulls is even challenging him. All of a sudden, out of nowhere, Hughes comes dashing in from the wing to try and grab the ball before Jamison does. Why? Because another rebound is another rebound, regardless of when he gets it. It makes his numbers look better and his contract fatter. Now, he wasn’t able to pull it off, but it was a telling moment. Hughes is out there to get numbers, and it’s working - he’s set career high in boards and assists this year, and his steals (3.3 per game) are just incredible. We’ll discuss this more next week, but when watching your games this weekend, keep an eye on players who are a little more motivated (or ’selfish’, even) than usual.

Who Wants To Play?

Boy, it just keeps getting worse for the worst teams in the NBA. The New Orleans Hornets are now playing without their big three (Davis, Mashburn and Magloire), and the injuries just keep coming. Now, David West, who we plugged earlier in the year, is out for a few weeks with a sprained knee. HIS replacement, Matt Freije, cracked his tailbone. So now, anyone and everyone is getting a shot. One guy to keep your eye on has already been discussed on these pages. Lee Nailon has gotten 34 mpg over the last 5 games, and has responded with 16.2/5.4/2.4, with over a steal per game and nice percentages. He should find a spot on a roster somewhere. The other guy to keep track of is Chris Anderson, who is an intriguing player. He’s a great source of blocks (his 3.43 per 48 minutes is tied with Ben Wallace for 15th in the league), and he rebounds fairly well. He got a season-high 26 minutes Wednesday and responded with 10 points, 12 boards and 3 blocks. If he gets minutes, he’s got pretty nice value.

Things are just as bad in New Jersey. Just as Jason Kidd returns to play out his last month or so with the team, Alonzo Mourning is complaining openly that he is sore, playing too many minutes, and needs to go on the IL. Here’s my favorite quote on the situation, from Nets coach Lawrence Frank: “We have to be smart with him. We have to keep the big picture in mind.” Listen coach, here’s the big picture: Your team stinks. You’re 5-13, and in last place in the worst division in basketball. Your biggest star doesn’t want to be there. Your best inside player doesn’t want to be there either, and is whining about it openly. So there. The one bright spot from the Mourning situation might be more playing time for Aaron Williams, as GM Rod Thorn predicted. He’s one of those guys who, if he ever got 35 mpg, would be a marginal fantasy player. But as it is, he won’t be getting those kind of minutes, so he has no value.

Needless to say, you’re not gonna have much fun watching the game between the Hornets and Nets tonight.

Game of the Week(end)
Cavaliers at Spurs, Sat 8:30 pm EST
Well first of all, if you can’t get excited about LeBron vs. Duncan, you shouldn’t be playing fantasy basketball to begin with. But there are also some interesting fantasy subplots going on. Duncan has gone 22-28 from the stripe over the last 2 games, and his FT% is steadily climbing, now at 66% for the year. Not great, but a good sign and if he keeps it up, his value rises along with it. For Cleveland, Robert Traylor is out a month with a broken pinkie. If Drew Gooden sees more court time because of it (Traylor was averaging about 17 mpg, Gooden 30) his value could go through the roof. He’s a nightly double-double with blocks and great percentages for a PF. Go get him.

Every year there are guys who get a whole lotta hype and then end up disappointing all of their fantasy owners. This year was no exception - every owner who took Samuel Dalembert, Erick Dampier, Gerald Wallace or Eddy Curry (2 years in a row now, Eddy!) for example, can’t help but be very unhappy with their decision. But to be honest, no one was really expecting these guys to be studs this year, and none of them went much before the 5th round in most fantasy drafts. There was an understood level of risk associated with all of them.

But there are a few more established players that went in the first couple rounds of your draft, who aren’t just underperforming - it’s much worse than that. A couple of them may not be slumping, but rather just playing at their normal level, which just happens to be much lower than you anticipated. Let’s take a look at who might have been taken in the first couple rounds for the last time:

Yao Ming, C (HOU) - While Yao certainly isn’t a ‘dud’, if he continues his current level of play you’ll have trouble convincing me he’s even worth a late-second round pick. For a guy who’s supposed to be the next dominant center, he’s had major trouble on the stat sheet. He doesn’t get you 20 points, 10 rebounds, or even 2 blocks. His scoring (17.9 ppg so far this year) is nice, but every pick in the first couple rounds outside of Ben Wallace should be getting you 20 points. Here’s a little player comparison, using career stats:

Player A: 12.8 rebounds and 5.3 blocks per 48 minutes.
Player B: 13.2 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per 48 minutes.

Player B, of course, is Yao. Player A? The biggest (size-wise) bust of all-time, Shawn Bradley. Bradley has been considered soft by just about every analyst out there. What does it say about Yao when he’s blocking about half as well, and rebounding about the same, as Shawn Bradley? If you took Yao in the 1st round this year, you’ve learned your lesson. He’s a 3rd-rounder next year unless he really picks up his game.

Shaquille O’Neal, C (MIA) - I’ll admit it. For a number of years, Shaq was one of my least favorite players in the league. I thought he was just a big body that moved around at will in the paint, played selfish ball and didn’t have much skill. However, I also thought he was one of the most valuable fantasy players in the league. Now my feelings have switched. I love the way he’s playing in Miami right now, letting Dwayne Wade be a star, but his value as a fantasy player had plummeted.

It’s no secret that Shaq’s biggest liability is his free throw shooting. But this year he has sunk to a new low, shooting just 45% from the line. Opposing teams are taking note, and his FTA are the highest they’ve been since 2000. He’s starting to show signs of slowing down, though, picking up more personal fouls per game (4.4) than at any point in his career. That’s a good sign that he’s not picking up his man as quickly as he used to, and as a result is fouling on a shot. His scoring, obviously, is way down from his peak years, but he’s shooting less and at 20.3 ppg is still the top scoring center (unless Dirk qualifies at C in your league). Shaq might be a late-second rounder next year, but age and injury concerns might push him into the third.

Carmelo Anthony, F (DEN) - Let’s do another Player A/Player B:

Player A:
Year 1: 37 mpg, 22/6/2, 1.1 3’s, 1.4 steals, 45% FG, 80% FT
Year 2: 40 mpg, 20/6/4, 1.1 3’s, 1.2 steals, 45% FG, 81% FT

Player B:
Year 1: 36 mpg, 21/6/3, 0.8 3’s, 1.2 steals, 42% FG, 77% FT
Year 2: 36 mpg, 20/6/3, 0.4 3’s, 1.3 steals, 40% FG, 73% FT

Player B, of course, is Carmelo Anthony. Player A? None other than the first 2 years of Glenn Robinson. Now, keep in mind that Robinson was 21 and 22 years old in those 2 years, and Carmelo was 19 last year and 20 (surprise!) this year. Nonetheless, the stats are scary close. When my fantasy basketblog cohort pointed this out to me recently, I scoffed, but at this point I think he might be right. Melo’s age might keep him up in the 3rd round for another year or two, but after awhile, if he doesn’t improve his numbers (particularly his boards and 3’s), I’d have trouble picking him before the 4th round, at best. Think Corey Maggette-type value.

The Atlanta Hawks are a terrible, terrible basketball team. Truly terrible. Even after a rare victory over the 76ers last night, their record remains a dreadful 3-14, better than only the equally terrible Chicago Bulls and the embarrassingly terrible New Orleans Hornets. Still, fantasy players need to keep up on these crappy teams. In fact, they need to keep up even more so, because this is where there’s an advantage to be had. I mean, everyone knows that Chris Webber, Mike Bibby, Brad Miller and Peja are going to be the guys to have value on the Kings. Everyone knows that Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson are the guys with value on the Suns. But on ignored teams like the Hawks, you can still find players with value.

We’ll start with the two guys who everyone knows about. No matter what happens with the Hawks, Antoine Walker will have plenty of value over the rest of the season, barring an injury. As expected, he’s back over 40 mpg, and should continue to see that much time because he’s one of the few legitimate NBAers on the team. He’ll continue to be a solid 22/9/4 player who gives you 2 3s, a steal and half a block a game. He’s managed to keep his FG% respectable so far, but now it’s down to 43% and dropping fast. If he can keep it above 40% for much longer, consider it a surprise. And then there’s his free throw shooting. This is a guy who shot 74% from the line as recently as 2001. But he’s barely making half of his shots from the charity stripe now. And that will kill you. But there’s not much you can. In any case, expect more of the same from Antoine.

Also expect more of the same from Al Harrington. And that means solid production, but perhaps not as much as some people were hoping for. We warned to be realistic when dealing with Harrington; after all, he did average 30 mpg his last two seasons in Indiana and had marginal value at best. Granted he was the #3 option at best there, but he’s never shown a real ability to hit 3s, get steals or get blocks, and that will keep anyone from having serious fantasy value. He’s a solid 17/7/3.5 players, but he’s having free throw woes of his own this year, as the career 73% shooter is at 63%. It’s possible that Harrington’s numbers will see a slight jump as the season progresses, but he does not help in any one category, and is just not all that helpful.

So now let’s get into the dregs. We’ve mentioned Tony Delk so many times on this site, you’d think that we own about 150 of his rookie cards or something. But we’ll keep doing it. He’s not a true point guard, but when Kenny Anderson is the only true point guard on your roster, that shouldn’t stop you from seeing time at the point. Kenny Anderson has nothing left. Nothing. The final straw might have been last night, when he had just an assist to show for his 10 minutes. Delk wasn’t anything special in his 31 minutes, with 10 points on 2-of-7 shooting with just 2 boards and 2 assists, but the team did win. If Delk does get the starting nod, don’t expect tons of assists. He’s never been a great passer, and anything more than 4 apg would be gravy. But Delk is someone who fires 3s. So far this season nearly 40% of his attempts from the field have been from long range. That is a serious number. He’s also shooting 89% from the line and getting there a respectable 3 times per game. Again, he’s not going to set the world on fire, but with injuries mounting, he could be a decent fill-in.

Boris Diaw could also be in line for an increase in minutes. And while we preach that minutes are just about the most important thing, it doesn’t always turn into value. Players like Ira Newble, Bruce Bowen and Trenton Hassell are defensive-minded players who can be on the court for 30 minutes and do nothing for fantasy teams. Diaw is a new member of this group. For a defensive stopper, he sure doesn’t get steals (just 7 on the year) and he just does nothing for you. Here’s one guy who might not even be worth a roster spot with 40 mpg.

Josh Smith has made his presence felt the last three games. In those three contests he has played a total of 51 minutes and accumulated the following numbers – 31 points (on 12-of-19 shooting from the field, 7-of-8 from the line), 20 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks. Not bad at all. It’s unlikely that the rookie who turned 19 on Sunday night will be able to have any real value this year, but on a team as bad as the Hawks you never know. He won’t unseat Al Harrington as the starting small forward, which is the only position he can really play, so his PT will be limited. Still, in terms of pure talent, he’s got plenty of it. Even the deepest of leagues don’t need to worry about him now, but know that he’s got promise.

If only coach Mike Woodson liked Predrag Drobjnak. The Hawks have a collection of true stiffs in the middle – Jason Collier, Jelani McCoy, the ancient Kevin Willis – yet Drobnjak still can’t get consistent PT. In the victory against Philly the Drobber got a season high 33 minutes and delivered with 20 points, 9 boards, a block and a 3. Not bad, especially for a center. Maybe this will finally get him off the bench sooner, or even into the starting lineup. If that does happen, the Drobber would be worth a flyer. He might be able to be similar to Marc Jackson if things went extremely well. Good scoring, decent boards, no blocks. The Drobber can drop in a 3 once in a while, too.

Josh Childress had a four-game stretch last month where it looked like he was emerging as a viable fantasy player, but just as quickly he’s back to irrelevance. Expect him to have more of a role than he’s had in the past few, but to still be far too inconsistent to count on. He’s one of those guys who you might be able to plug in there for a game or two while he’s on a hot streak, and hope he can come up with some steals (he had 9 in two games last month), but can be released at the first sign of trouble. As things stand now, he shouldn’t be near your team.

So there it is, more than you ever could have possibly wanted to know about the Hawks. Besides Antoine and Al, none of these guys will give you consistent production. But there will be times when some of the guys above will get hot and will be worth using. Just because they play for a crappy team, the numbers still count the same.

It’s trade rumor time! No one is safe, from aging superstars to underproducing youngsters, from expiring contracts to draft picks. Of course, everytime someone switches teams, their rotation spot is left open, and the good fantasy players will know enough about a team’s depth to know who’s going to get their minutes, points, etc. Let’s take a look at some of the hottest trade rumors, and who stands to gain.

The Team in Disarray: Portland Trail Blazers
The Player Who’s Probably Leaving: Shareef Abdur-Rahim
The Players Who Stand To Gain
Everyone on the roster has a chance. The problem with the Trail Blazers situation is that there are about 8 different teams that they are legitimately talking to. The one guy who seems to have the best shot at breaking out of his funk is Theo Ratliff. With so many players playing out of position in the current lineup, opposing teams have been able to play away from Theo in the middle, cutting down on his one source of fantasy value - blocks. Hopefully, whatever situation comes next will be better for Ratliff. Remember, last year in 32 games with the blazers, he averaged an amazing 4.4 blocks. So far this year, it’s just 2.4. See if you can pry Ratliff away at a discount from his current owner.

The Team in Disarray: Toronto Raptors
The Players Who Are Probably Leaving: Vince Carter and Jalen Rose
The Players Who Stand To Gain
Nobody thinks that the Raptors are going to get much for this combo. It’s more of a salary-clearing trade than anything at else, and it looks like the highest ceiling for what they’ll get back is something like the aforementioned Abdur-Rahim. So somebody is going to be stepping up. Carter and Rose are the two leading shot-takers for the team. Fantasy players should hope that regarless of who the Raptors get in return, that Donyell Marshall sees more minutes and gets the ball more often. Marshall was an extremely valuable player last year, but due to injuries and lord knows what else, has seen his minutes nearly cut in half. His skills haven’t deteriorated, however - over his last 3 games he’s averaged 28 minutes, 15.3 points, 9 boards, 1.3 3’s and 2 steals. Rafer Alston and Chris Bosh could also see their points increase by 3-5 per game or so.

The Team in Disarray: New Jersey Nets
The Players Who Are Probably Leaving: Jason Kidd, Alonzo Mourning
The Players Who Stand To Gain
Whoever they get in return. As we’ve discussed, outside of Jefferson, Kidd and Mourning, nobody on this team has any value. We’ve already seen that nobody seems to step up when Kidd isn’t on the floor. The major minute beneficiaries if Mourning leaves are Jason Collins and/or Brian Scalabrine, with the latter maybe have a little value due to his 3’s, but nothing to get excited about. Chad Ford lays out the trade possibilities for the Nets, and if Abdur-Rahim or Jason Terry come via trade, they instantly become the 2nd most valuable player on the squad behind Richard Jefferson.

The Team in Disarray: Chicago Bulls
The Players Who Are Probably Leaving: Eddy Curry
The Players Who Stand To Gain
First in line is undoubtedly Tyson Chandler, a recent addition to the “fantasy basketblog favorite” list. Chandler has only gotten 30 minutes in 8 games so far this year (thank you, crazy Scott Skiles) and has averaged 12 points and 13 boards, plus a block, two steals and 59.9 FG% when getting those minutes. If he gets regular minutes he can be a stud for you in rebounds, provided he stays healthy, which isn’t a sure thing by any means. Antonio Davis could see some more minutes, but this isn’t 1998. Even with 35 mpg, he’s a marginal fantasy player at best.

Memphis Slim

Mike Fratello made his debut with the Grizzlies Friday night, and while his players (can we call them the Frat-boys?) won their first game, it wasn’t the scoreboard that fantasy players were interested in - our eyes were all on the “minutes” column. Now after 2 games in the Fratello era, there are a few things made a little clearer:

- Pau Gasol has more value. Hopefully you took our advice last Monday and made a move for him. Since Hubie Brown left, Pau has been averaging over 37 minutes per game, with 20.6/12.2 and 1.6 blocks in that span. Those are legit late-second round type numbers.

- Nothing has been decided at PG. Jason Williams got 33 minutes on Friday and had a rough night (2-11 from the field, though he had 12 assists), then he sat out with a bum foot and watched Earl Watson get 30 minutes, with 12 points and 10 assists on Saturday. There are rumors that Fratello likes Watson running the offense more than Williams, but both should continue to get minutes until one gets moved, hurt or benched. Keep an eye on the situation as Watson could be a strong pickup if the gets 30 minutes a night.

- Stromile Swift will, eventually, get the minutes he deserves. Lorenzen Wright got 37 minutes on Friday to Swift’s 20, but Fratello wised up and gave Swift 29 minutes to Wright’s 19 on Saturday. Get Swift if he’s on your waiver wire.

Who’s House?

Well that didn’t take long. 13 games into his Charlotte tenure, Eddie House was let go, and it looks like that was done in order to clear up some space on the roster for Kareem Rush, who should be arriving from the Lakers any day now. Rush has fallen out of the Laker rotation this year, only getting 6.5 mpg and not doing much of anything with the time he sees on the court. On the Bobcats, however, he could be a very effective swingman. His peak is probably around 15 points, 5 boards, a couple assists and a couple 3’s. Wait a few games to see how he fits into the rotation, but should he get starter’s minutes, he’s probably worth the risk.

The Kidd is Alright

Jason Kidd. He’s back. Andboy, do the Nets need him. There is not one person of any fantasy value whatesoever who will be hurt by his return. You might think that Richard Jefferson would take a hit in value, but look for his FG% to jump up over 45% now that he’ll be getting the ball in better spots, and seeing fewer double-teams. Alonzo Mourning could start playing some more inspired basketball (no, we don’t know what that means either), and look for him to possibly start scoring closer to 15 ppg. Plus if the Nets are in the game late in contests, ‘Zo will start seeing more minutes, as well. The best thing about Kidd from a fantasy standpoint is that he doesn’t need a lot of shots to have value himself (he rarely shoots over 15 shots per game), and he makes everyone around him so much better.

Around The Perimeter
Now is the time to buy low on Latrell Sprewell, as his owners are probably ready to drop him … Since when does Brian Cook shoot 3’s? Since about the beginning of this season. 40% of his shots this year have been from behind the arc … Hopefully you were listening when we said Ray Allen’s numbers were gonna come down eventually … Same thing with Tracy McGrady’s numbers going up … The fantasy basketblog crew saw the Wizards/Bulls game in person on Saturday night. 3 comments: 1. Larry Hughes is playing like a man possessed. 2. Tyson Chandler, when he wants to be, can be a top rebounder in this league. 3. Anyone looking for Kwame Brown to contribute anytime soon could be in for a bad couple weeks. Eddie Jordan seems much more comfortable with Michael Ruffin on the floor.

We’re about 20% through the season, which is when teams – both real and fantasy – start to take stock of what they’ve got. In most cases it’s still too early to take very drastic measures, but a couple of coaches of struggling teams are threatening shake-ups. More often than not this is just a lot of talk (sort of like Rafer Alston’s retirement), but it’s worth investigating.

Portland Trailblazers
The Blazers are a respectable 8-8, but as usual, there is turmoil in Portland. It’s pretty well-known that GM John Nash is calling all of the shots and that head coach Mo Cheeks doesn’t have much say in matters of PT. But after two straight double digit losses, things may start to change. Shareef Abdur-Rahim has been playing out of position all year, and has had solid production, checking in at #49 on the player rater. But part of the reason he’s been playing so much has been to showcase him for a trade. Now that teams see that he’s still basically the same player he’s always, the Blazers may start cutting down his time as part of sweeping lineup changes.

The one player whose role is completely safe is Zach Randolph. With a fat extension earlier this year, Randolph has been designated as the centerpiece of this team. All moves the team makes should be made with him in mind, since they are very committed to him. Randolph has been a disappointment so far, as he’s only one spot higher than Abdur-Rahim on the player rater. His 21.3 ppg and 11 rpg are very nice, but that’s all he’s bringing to the table. He shot nearly 49% last year, but is down to 44% this year, and that has cost him lots of his value. If Abdur-Rahim sees less court time, it could make things less clogged and help Randolph’s shooting. Still, Randolph is what he is – a great scorer and rebounder who still doesn’t do much for your team unless he hits nearly half of his shots.

If Abdur-Rahim does get sent to the bench, it would create more playing time for both Darius Miles and Ruben Patterson. Patterson has made the most of his limited playing time so far this year, averaging a robust 1.7 spg in only 18.3 minutes. His 55% shooting is also mighty impressive, and less of a fluke than you think, as he’s a career 51% shooter. If he could somehow get up to 30 mpg he could be worthy of roster consideration, but his upside is still limited. Like Randolph, he won’t be any help in assists or blocks, and with Zach cleaning up the boards, Patterson won’t be much help there either. It would be nice if he could hit a 3, but that’s not part of his arsenal. He’s simply a one category specialist.

Darius Miles could be another beneficiary, especially if ‘Reef is jettisoned out of town. After Miles re-upped with the Blazers in the offseason, it looked like he might finally fulfill the promise he’s long shown. But Abdur-Rahim stuck around and took the starting job it looked like Miles would have. We know that Miles can be a solid all-around contributor if given the chance. The other night against Seattle he received 33 minutes of PT and hit 10-of-14 shots en route to 20 points, 6 boards, 3 assists and a block. Blocks is where Miles could really help a team, as he averaged 1.2 in his career over 27.1 mpg. If given time he won’t hurt you anywhere, really, except from the line. But we’ve been through this before. He’s a perennial tease and you shouldn’t count on him.

Theo Ratliff is another player to keep an eye on. He’s been a pretty big disappointment so far, at only #138 on the player rater. His 2.5 bpg would be impressive coming from almost anyone else, but considering that he offers absolutely nothing in any other category, he needs to be absolutely dominant. If he stays at his current level, his 2.5 bpg would be his lowest output since the 1996-97 season. He’s seeing only 28.3 mpg so far, and has seen a dip from 31 to 25 to 21 in the last three games. Unless he starts picking up his play soon, he could see more time on the bench, as the Blazers could opt to go with a small lineup, especially seeing first hand how effective that can be after getting blown out by the Suns. If you have Ratliff, you have to keep him in your lineup as you never know when he could explode for an 8 or 9 block game, but there is plenty of reason to be worried.

In the backcourt, Damon Stoudamire is slowly falling out of favor. After averaging 35.9 mpg in the first 12 contests, he’d down to 25.5 in the last four, a very significant drop off. Logic dictates that Nick Van Exel would be the beneficiary, but last night when Stoudamire saw a season low 21 minutes, Van Exel saw only 11 himself. Instead, it was Ruben Patterson and Darius Miles who saw the extra time, showing that it’s not just Abdur-Rahim who can affect their minutes. This is a situation to keep an eye on. Derek Anderson hasn’t played all that well but seems to be a favorite of Cheeks’ and can pass as a point guard if need be. Stoudamire has a valuable expiring contract and could be shown the door.

Bottom Line: We’ve covered lots of ground, but don’t expect any major changes in Portland unless a trade occurs. Rumored deals come up every day, but often it’s a deal you don’t expect that happens. If you have Abdur-Rahim, you might want to think about seeing what you can get for him, but if he does go, he could go to a team where he’d be a top option, or it could be like last year where he goes to a team and then comes off the bench. Stoudamire owners should be worried. Hopefully he’s only a third option at PG for you, because his recent trends are very disturbing. Don’t hold your breath on Nick Van Exel. If Ruben Patterson or Darius Miles can find their way into the starting lineup, they are worth a flier if you need help in steals or blocks, respectively, but don’t expect much more than utility production.

Next, the Atlanta Hawks.

“He Ran Into My Elbow”

That was Bobcat’s Tamar Slay’s explanation of what caused teammate Gerald Wallace’s grade II concussion that is keeping him out of tomorrow night’s game against the Knicks. Sure, Tamar, whatever you say. Just like Ron Artest ran into that cup of beer. And it just so happens that Slay could get a little extra playing time in Wallace’s absence. Not that we’re insinuating anything. We’re just brining this up because Wallace, one of the most popular Bobcats to pick this year in fantasy drafts, could be out indefinitely, and that means someone is going to get a chance to shine.

The best pick for player who will see increased action is probably Keith Bogans, the second-year man out of Kentucky. Bogans is already a borderline fantasy player, though he’s probably still on your waiver wire. So far this year he’s averaging 13.9/4.3/2.8 with a 3 and a steal in 28 minutes. If he can push that up to 16/6/4 with 1.5 3’s, that’s obviously a line that’s worth of being on your team. see if he gets closer to 30-35 minutes, and increases his shots a bit. The other player worth watching is Eddie House, but his rebound and assist numbers are so terrible that he’d have to put up close to 20 ppg in order to really have value.

Que Sura Sura

Remember that time last year when Bob Sura absolutely exploded, and started getting crazy triple-doubles out of nowhere for the Hawks? After never averaging more than 13.8 points, 4.3 assists or 4.3 boards, last year in 27 games for the Hawks he put up 14.7/8.3/5.3, with a steal and .4 3’s. Now Sura’s on the Rockets, a team where he is defintiely no better than the 4th option, so you’re not going to see those kind of numbers again unless T-Mac and Yao both go down with injuries. However, he can still have value for your fantasy team.

In three games since returning from back surgery, Sura has struggled to find his place in the offense (only 5 ppg), but has earned himself a starting spot and looks like he will get over 30 mpg while Tyronne Lue and Charlie Ward are on the IL. He’s putting up nice rebound and assist numbers already, and with T-Mac starting to heat up, he could get plenty of open looks at the basket. If you’ve got an open spot on your roster, pick him up now, because in a week or so he’ll be gone.

Game of the Week(end)

Memphis at Orlando, Saturday, 7 pm EST.

There are certainly more glamorous matchups this weekend (Minnesota at Phoenix tonight comes to mind), but fantasy players will keep a close eye on this game. Mike Fratello makes his debut as the Grizzlies coach, and you’re going to want to pay attention to who gets the majority of the minutes on the floor. You’ve got to assume the dreaded 10-man rotation will be gone, so whoever consistently gets over 30 mpg will have their fantasy value go up pretty drastically.

On the other side of the court, see if Dwight Howard is able to keep his recent run of impressive performances going. Over his last 5 games, Howard has averaged 14 points, 11 boards, 1.6 blocks and 1.2 steals on 62.5% shooting, including a 24-point night against Atlanta last Friday and an incredible 20-rebound game against Toronto on Wednesday. Also take a look at Grant Hill, as the feel-good story of the year has taken a big hit in FG% (48 to 41) and rebounds (5.2 to 3.4) over his last 5 games.

Take a look at the top of the player rater and you’ll see most of the usual suspects, the guys that got drafted in the first round. LeBron, Dirk, Kobe, KG, Marion, RayRay, Timmy, no real surprise to see them ranked this high. Sure, LeBron has been even better than most have thought, but he was a first round pick on average. Guys like Dwyane Wade, Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire are probably higher than you thought they would be, but no one was really sleeping on them and they were likely gone by the third round of your draft. They are surprises, but not shocks. No, the shocks are guys like Rashard Lewis at #11, Manu Ginobili at #12, and Bobby Simmons (BOBBY SIMMONS!!!) at #16. Conventional wisdom says that these guys are overachieving and their value will drop as the season goes on. I can’t argue with you there. I highly doubt that any of the three players listed above will finish the season ranked in the top-15. But just because someone is overperforming doesn’t mean they are going to drop off the face of the earth. Remember the old buy-fake high thing. If you think you’ve spotted a player who an owner is trying to sell high, but you think that player will keep performing at that level, go for it. Examples from last year are more in the Wade, Nash, Stoudemire category, but players like Peja and AK47 were likely late-2nd/3rd round picks last year who owners might have looked to deal after their quick stars. Smart players could have identified that their play was for real and traded for a top-10 player. Let’s see if this season’s overperformers have any chance of holding on the whole year.

Rashard Lewis
After showing steady improvement in each of his first five years, Lewis took a slight step backwards last year. His scoring decreased for the first time and he had his worst shooting year since his rookie year. This, combined with the fact that he plays on an often-ignored west coast team, caused him to fall in many drafts this year. There’s a good chance that whoever snatched up Lewis in the mid-rounds is near the top of the standings at this point. So can Lewis keep up this pace? He’s got a better chance than you may think. He’s currently shooting 47% from the field, a very strong number, but in line with his career 46% mark. He’s averaging 5.4 rpg, which is actually considerably lower than any year since his sophomore campaign. His assists are lower than every year since his second season as well. He’s shown a slight increase in blocks which could be the result of a small sample size, but his steals are in line with his career totals. Right now Lewis’s value is tied up in his 3s and points, and he might be able to keep up his current paces. The Sonics know that they need the 3 to win, so expect them to stick with the formula that has made them the surprise team of the league so far and has made Rashard good for 2.2 3pg. His 21.2 ppg is impressive, but again, he could very well stay around 20 ppg, as he averaged 18 ppg over the previous two seasons. While his FG% will probably settle in closer to 45%, you can expect his rebound and assist numbers to get back to their usual marks. Lewis always very quietly finished around the mid-30s in the player rater at the end of the season, thanks in large part to his excellent health. He’s been banged up a bit this year, but he’s been like that in the past and has appeared in more than 70 games every year since his rookie year. Basically, don’t think it’s all downhill for Lewis from here. He might not stay near the top 10, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hovering around the top 20 come Spring.

Manu Ginobili
Ginobili is a longtime favorite of mine, as he has such a singularly unique game, making him a joy to watch. He’s always been a sneaky fantasy player due to his ability to get steals, and this year an uptick in numbers across the board, accounting for his high ranking. He will continue to be a valuable asset throughout the year, but I see him taking a dropping much more than Lewis. The main reason for this being that Ginobili – a career 43% shooter coming into the season – is at 48% right now. This won’t last. It’s possible he can stay around 45%, but as the season wears on, I’d expect his FG% to drop. And whereas Lewis is clearly the #2 scoring option on his team, the same can’t be said for Manu. Tony Parker will improve as the season progresses, and Brent Barry will become more comfortable in the Spurs system. After scoring at least 18 points in the first five games of the season, Ginobili has hit that number only once in the 10 games since then. Those first five games also accounted for 12 of his 21 3s and 16 of his 32 steals. In fact on the 15-day rater, he checks in at #67. That’s a little low, as I expect him to finish in the top 50, but Manu is a great complimentary player to have, not a foundation for your team.

Bobby Simmons
To borrow one of Steve Buckhantz’s many lines … are you kiddin’ me? The guy who couldn’t unglue himself from the Wizards – the Wizards – bench is now the reason why there’s hope in Clippers land. His play this season has just been out of this world, averaging 16.6/6.2/3.3 on ridiculous 55% and 92% shooting. He’s quickly becoming a fan favorite in L.A. (well, at least the Sports Guy likes him) and he’s their defensive stopper. People may have held off picking him up or even dropped him due to Kerry Kittles presence, but Kittles is hurt again, and at this point there is no way he deserves to take any of Simmons’s minutes when he returns. Simmons is playing better now than Kittles ever has. Now of course no one expects B-Simm to stay in the top 20 for too much longer. And the fact that so much of his value comes from percentages is a little scary. Take away his value there and he’s a neutral player, sort of like Rip Hamilton. Still, you have to think that Simmons has bought himself at least another 20-25 games in which he gets the 37 mpg he’s getting right now. And for every great game he has, he becomes more and more ingrained into the Clippers lineup. It’s very likely that whoever picked him up has fallen in love with him and won’t want to part with him, since he surely won’t get a top-20 player in return. But it’s possible his owner will really want to sell high, as well. If it doesn’t take much to get him – say, Ricky Davis, Jalen Rose, Eddie Jones, etc. – you may want to take the chance.