I think we’ll start using Monday as the day to take a look at the PG landscape, to see how you can best play the rotating PG game for the coming week. If you have any clever ideas for a title that are better than this one, please let me know. We like puns.

Brevin Knight finally returned from his ankle injury and promptly rendered Jason Hart useless. Hart still got the start last night but played only 25 minutes, finishing with 8/7/3, a steal and a block. Knight put up a similar 8/5/3. Hart managed a mighty impressive 9 apg in Knight’s absence, but owners had to be disappointed with just 3 total steals. He did put up nice 46 and 85 percentages, but his stint as a starter has to be considered a bit of a let down. Once Knight gets back in the starting lineup, he should continue to be a two-category stud, without many other contributions. If you need help in assists and steals, he’s worth using. Hart will have to wait until Brevin’s next injury to reappear in fantasy lineups.

If you want to really micro-manage, need assists, and have a roster spot to play with, then consider picking up Milt Palacio for Wednesday’s game against the Pacers. Rafer Alston had his seasonal outburst and got himself suspended for two games. Palacio hardly did anything besides contribute 9 assists yesterday in 35 minutes, but in the four game he’s played at least 30 minutes this year he’s averaged 7.5 assists. He might get you a couple of steals, you never know. Still, this is a one-game only thing. Rafer and Sam Mitchell certainly have issues, but after Rafer’s last outburst back in early December, he came back the next night with 20 and 10 and 4 steals. So he should be fine.

Might we change the name of this site to FantasyBrunsonBlog? Perhaps. It does have a nice ring to it. He gets a lot of mentions here and he gets one again. Just when it looked like his days as a useful fantasy contributor were over, Rick Brunson is back on the radar. Yes, Marko Jaric is back, but with Darrick Martin let go and Corey Maggette and Kerry Kittles ailing, the Clips are left with just Jaric, Brunson and someone named “Quentin Ross” in the backcourt. On Saturday, Jaric saw 39 minutes, but that didn’t stop Brunson from seeing 44 of his own and putting up an impressive 17/8/7 line with 5 3pointers. It doesn’t seem like Maggette will miss much time, but in the last two games that he’s missed, Brunson has seen 44 minutes in each, hitting a total of 9 3s and totaling 16 assists. It’s risky to plug him in not knowing Maggette’s status, but it could pay off.

Speedy Claxton has yet to return, and while he keeps saying “next game, next game” this is starting to look like one of those instances where he could just make a trip to the IL to get it completely taken care of. That’s just a hunch, based on no actual evidence. And it probably ensures that he’ll be back next game. In any case, Derek Fisher will continue to be worth using in his absence. Those hoping for more games like his 23-point, 7-assist outburst he put up in the first game Speedy missed have been disappointed, but he’s hit at least one 3, had at least one steal and dished at least 4 assists in each game. You could do worse. His five-game averages of 2 3pg, 1.2 spg and 6.2 apg are exactly Jason Williams’s stats on the year in those categories, for comparison’s sake.

If you scooped up Raul Lopez after his big game last Wednesday, you got one good one and one stinker. Foul trouble was to blame for his 2/2/2, 17-minute performance on Saturday, but even in his nice game before that he saw just 32 minutes. FBB favorite Howard Eisley wasn’t able to do too much in his 31 minutes on Saturday – 8/5/3 with no 3s – but never doubt Jerry Sloan’s ability to piss you off.

Remember the first half of January, when Sebastian Telfair saw double-digit minutes in seven straight games, including over 20 in a couple? Then Mo Cheeks realized he had a job to save, and Damon Stoudamire hasn’t played under 39 minutes since. Kudos to those of you that held on to him or traded for him while his value was low. He’s hit an astounding 36 3s in his last 8 games, putting up at least 20 points in all but one contest. No surprise to see him at #10 on the 15-Day Rater. He’d be the highest ranked Stoudamire on that list, but that 54-point performance was 17 days ago. So deal Damon while his value is sky high, right? Yeah, maybe. Or he could be a great fake buy high candidate. The Blazers are 6 games out of the last playoff spot right now. As long as it stays around 6 games, Damon should keep seeing serious time. If they slip, Telfair might get more time.

The Minnesota situation is a mess right now. I can’t imagine too many teams who spent a third-round pick on Sam Cassell are near the top of their league’s standings. Just hope he gets back into the starting lineup and Minnesota rights the ship in the second half. He’s still shooting 48% on the year, and rate his stats out to last year’s minutes and he’s down just a notch. He should be a solid contributor down the stretch as long as he can stay injury free … You may not have noticed, but Luke Ridnour averaged 34.6 mpg in January after only 28.5 in December. Despite this, his assists went down and his steals and 3s stayed exactly the same. He did increase his scoring by nearly 3.5 points, though. If he can keep the minutes up, the rest of the numbers will follow … And I’ll close with more praise of the one and only Gilbert Arenas, by using a favorite tool of my FBB cohort. This is Arenas’s 4th year.

Arenas January: 27.2/4.3/4.8 with 2.5 3s, 1.9 steals, 40% and 81%
Player B: 28.4/3.8/4.7 with 1.3 3s, 2.1 steals, 42% and 71%

That’s Allen Iverson’s 4th year line. Can Gilbert keep up his pace once Larry Hughes gets back? It’s not a given. But as someone who has watched just about every game he’s played this year, know that he is the REAL DEAL. If Steve Francis, Paul Pierce, Michael Redd or Stephon Marbury make the All-Star team instead of him, it’d be a damn shame.

Two of the toughest players to gauge draft value for this past year were Donyell Marshall and James Posey. Marshall was a top-20, Shawn Marion-esque player when he got the minutes, which he finally got last year. Posey, meanwhile, exploded during the second half of the year, but who knew what the minutes situation would be like in Memphis. Now, it looks pretty clear that neither one is going to have much impact this year, and each had a pretty rough weekend, rough enough that we’re going to feature them during our weekend review.

How the (Sorta) Mighty Have Fallen

Donyell Marhsall, F – Marshall may have been the 4th overall pick in the draft coming out of UConn in 1994, but he only got more than 32 minutes a game once in his career, back in 1997 with the Warriors. Last year, though, after being shipped off to Toronto, Marshall started getting nearly 40 minutes a night, and he responded big-time. He averaged better than 1.2 blocks, steals, and three-pointers. That’s a claim that only Shawn Marion and Dirk Nowitzki can make this year. His 16.2 points and 10.7 boards were career highs, and his percentages were good enough for a PF. In fact, he ended the year an incredible ninth on the Player Rater, just ahead of Tracy McGrady.

And yet, there were questions. Why had he suddenly exploded? Even we here at Fantasy Basketblog had our doubts. It just seemed a little odd for a journeyman, 31-year-old power forward to suddenly be a first-round type force in the NBA. And it turned out our doubts were valid. While Marshall hasn’t completely fallen off the face of the earth, he shouldn’t be starting in most shallow leagues. His season last year looks like it may have been a fluke, and now he’s again struggling to get minutes. He’s had flashes this year, but now a sprained wrist has forced his numbers to take yet another hit. Yesterday against the Suns, he was on the court for only 12 minutes, had 2 points, 3 boards, and an assists, with nothing else. It was the 7th time this year that he had scored under 5 points while getting over 10 minutes of court time. It may be time to cut the cord on Marshall.

James Posey, GF – Posey didn’t seem to be as big a risk as Marshall was. He certainly wouldn’t be mistaken for a top-flight fantasy player, but in his first year with Memphis, he looked like he was on his way to becoming a decent mid-round pick. Early in his career, he wasn’t even worth drafting, he was just another dime-a-dozen swingman who would hit a three now and then and maybe grab a steal or two. But in the second half of the season last year, he suddenly became more dependable, and started showing up on fantasy rosters. By the end of the year, he really helped some teams win championships. He was absolutely on fire at the end – over his last 8 games, he averaged 22.6 points, 2.3 3’s, 2.2 steals and 5 rebounds. Suddenly, he had the fantasy basketball world’s attention.

Enticed by his strong numbers at the end of the year, fantasy owners took him around the 7th round of the draft this year, ahead of players like Al Harrington, Chris Bosh and Tony Parker. Consider those that took him there to be disappointed. He suffered a sprained left foot early in the year, and missed most of November. Since returning, he’s gotten about the same minutes he had last year, 29 – but has done far less with his time on the court. For the season, he’s averaging only 8.7 points per game, with 4.8 boards, 1.3 3’s and 0.8 steals. This weekend, he returned to the IL with a strained Achilles tendon. It may be due to injury, but Posey is no longer worth owning in fantasy leagues.

Vince? Is That You?

Perhaps the biggest story that no one is talking about because they don’t want to jinx it is the re-emergence of Vince Carter in New Jersey. This weekend he posted back-to-back 30 point games, throwing in 9.5 assists, 2.5 3’s, 1.5 steals, 2.5 blocks, and 5 rebounds. What is this, 2001? What happened to your knee there, Vince? Now that he’s finally giving a “full effort” (don’t get us started on THAT one), Vince is returning to top-30 status in the fantasy basketball world. Of course, who knows when he’ll get hurt again, or stop trying on the court? He may end up being Webber-esque in his value.

Also Hot

Here at Fantasy Basketblog Headquarters, we try not to talk TOO much about our favorite team, the Washington Wizards. But lately, it’s been tough to ignore just how on fire Gilbert Arenas is. When Larry Hughes went down with injury, all the talk was about either Jarvis Hayes or Juan Dixon would really step up their scoring. And while they’ve certainly performed better than usual with the extra minutes, Gilbert Arenas has been absolutely unconscious. He’s scored over 30 points in 5 straight games and 6 of the last 7. In fact, over his last 7 games he’s averaging 3 3’s, 5.9 assists, 2 steals, and 3.4 boards to go with his 32.7 points per game. Should Hughes bolt in free agency during the offseason, Arenas could have a ton of value next year, and might be worth a mid-to-late second round pick.

When you are trying to decide whether or not to pick up a player, one of the main factors is how long will he be productive. I talk about playing the rotating point guard game a lot, but if you play in a league with a small bench, it’s perfectly understandable that you wouldn’t want to cut bait on a player you think could be a regular down the road for just a one-game pick up. But here’s the thing with most injuries – they don’t last one game. We hear so much about players being day-to-day, but this usually isn’t the case; it’s more like week-to-week. Let’s check a couple of current examples, using Rotoworld’s player updates. (And this is by no means a slam on Rotoworld, as they’re just taking their info from local papers.)

Jan. 19: Brevin Knight missed most of tonight’s game after spraining his ankle in the first quarter.
He is day-to-day, but more information about the injury will be available tomorrow, so check back then.

Well, today is Jan. 28 and Knight still isn’t back. He’s missed four games and is doubtful for a fifth tonight. In his absence Jason Hart has gone for: 12.3/6.3/10.3 with .8 steals and 3s. While some owners may have been wary of dropping someone for a game or two of Hart, if you knew that day-to-day was a lie, you’ve had a great week of games from Hart, with a ton of assists.

Jan. 22: Speedy Claxton is sitting out tonight’s game with a thigh injury.
He’s day-to-day and Derek Fisher started in his place.

Day-to-day, eh? Claxton has missed three games so far, and even though it seems like he’s due back each game, don’t believe it until you see it. Even with a total clunker of a performance on Wednesday, Derek Fisher has been good for 15.3/3.3/6 with 1 steal and a huge 2.3 3s in his absence.

Here’s a quote from Sam Cassell after the Jan. 7 game against Philadelphia: Asked about his ability to play Saturday, Cassell said, “If I’m in D.C., I’m going (to play).”

Ten games and almost three weeks later, Cassell was finally back on the court, after being day-to-day for seemingly an eternity. No one really stepped up in his absence, but it’s another fine example of day-to-day being anything but.

How about Zach Randolph?

Jan. 13: Zach Randolph has a mild right knee strain. He’ll have the injury reevaluated on Thursday.
Randolph is day-to-day with the knee problem that’s been bothering him for weeks.

A few days later it was revealed he would miss two to five games. Guess which one it was closer to? He ended up missing six games, where Damon Stoudamire and Nick Van Exel went insane (in a good way) in his absence.

There’s nothing too revelatory about any of this, but it’s something to keep in mind when dealing with these guys who are banged up. As a general rule, ankle and groin injuries usually seem to be the most frustrating.

Still Hurtin’

While nobody expected Kobe Bryant to come back after only 5 games, it looks like things could be worse than his owners had hoped. Kobe now appears to be out until the All-Star break, missing another 10 games with his bad ankle. The bad news (I mean, other than Kobe’s ankle) is that other than the Big Three (Odom, Butler, and Atkins), no one on the Lakers roster has really stepped it up in Kobe’s absence. It’s extremely unusual for a superstar player to go down and not have at least SOME reserve start and become worth owning (for more, see my fantasy basketblog cohort’s post from yesterday). But here, that’s exactly what’s happened.

Now that Kobe is definitely out another 10 games or so, perhaps some of the marginal players on the team will show a little consistency, especially with another starter, Chris Mihm, also struggling with injuries. Our favorite for fantasy success over the next few weeks is Brian Cook, who if nothing else will give you a three every night, and saw 25 minutes when Mihm sat out most of Wednesday’s game. If he sees 25-30 minutes a night the next few weeks, he could be good for 2 3’s, 15 points, and 5 boards with maybe a block or a steal. A more conservative bet would be Jumaine Jones, who over the last 2 games has seen 39.5 mpg, and responded with 14 points, 8.5 boards and 2.5 3’s, but nothing in the defensive categories. Either way, the Lakers will continue to try and beat up on weak teams this weekend, hosting New Jersey and Charlotte, so be sure to check the box scores to find out who’s getting minutes.

Straight From the Horse’s Mouth

Now, we could jabber all day about who we think will get minutes, how we think players will do with those minutes, etc. etc. In fact, that’s just about ALL we do. But often, the best projection of how a player is going to produce is by simply asking the coach. Luckily, we’ve gotten just that out of Phoenix Suns’ coach Mike D’Antoni. Speaking of recently acquired Jim Jackson, D’Antoni said, “as he learns the defensive system a little bit, if we have one (ed. note – burn!), and keeps in the flow, he’s going to be an important piece … he already is. I expect him to average 15 to 20 points a game.” So there you have it.

That said, color us skeptical on his projection. The last time Jackson scored over 15 points a game was in 1999 with the Hawks. And even then, it took him 35 minutes a game and he was on a team who featured Isaiah Rider, Alan Henderson, Dikembe Mutombo and a rookie Jason Terry alongside him in the starting lineup – not exactly an offensive juggernaut. While the Suns are clearly the best offensive team in the league, no starter other than Amare Stoudamire is putting up a career-high in points. We’d temper those expectations to something more like 12 to 14 points, with maybe a little better than 2 three pointers.

Game of the Week(end)

Portland Trail Blazers vs. LA Clippers, tonight, 10pm EST
While this is certainly not a marquee match-up, both teams are seeing some lineups being juggled as players return from injury. For Portland, both Zach Randolph and Darius Miles are working their way back into the rotation and should continue to eat up major minutes from both Ruben Patterson and big men Theo Ratliff and Joel Przybilla. Patterson excelled in his role as starter, averaging 16.8 points, 5.5 boards and 2.3 steals over the last 11 games, but as the regulars have started crawling their way back into the lineup, he’s seen his minutes fall from 45 to 35 to 29 over the last three games – a trend we’d unfortunately expect to continue.

The Clippers, meanwhile, recently welcomed fantasy frustrator extraordinare Marko Jaric back from the injured list. Jaric has so far seen limited action getting only 23.5 minutes in his 2 games back, and while he hasn’t played well enough to start just yet (despite a nice 11 assists against the Lakers), he has cut into Rick Brunson’s playing time. Hopefully you cut bait on Brunson when my fantasy basketblog cohort suggested. This game should be interesting for fantasy players, as it’s a good chance to get a gauge on all the returning players.

Well, you hit some and you miss some. A good time to own James Posey? Ha. Stromile Swift as productive as Pau Gasol? Ha. I did say that he needed to see the proper minutes. I’m telling you, it looks more and more like Memphis is going back to its dreaded rotation of fantasy doom. Anyway, there was a full slate of action last night, so I’m going to pick out one surprise performance in each game, and we’ll examine whether or not those players are going to be worth having on your team. Ready?

In Miami, Rasual Butler came through with 14 points, 7 boards, a three and a block. He was an early season sleeper favorite of mine because of he made 46% of his 3s last year and was in the starting lineup, but did very little in his 15 games as a starter, going for only 7.9/2.9/1.5 with just 1 3. It’s nice to see him contribute, and if Dwyane Wade finds himself on the injured list at some point – which is a distinct possibility – Butler might find his way into the starting lineup. Even then, Butler would be a borderline fantasy play, though.

As the Wizards surpassed last season’s win total in just the 41st game of the season, Willie Green took advantage of AI’s absence by going for a career-high 32 points, also chipping in 6 boards, 4 assists, 2 3s and a steal in 41 minutes. His performance was strong enough that he might be Philly’s focal point again if AI is out on Friday, and if you’re looking for a one-game fill-in, you could certainly do worse. Still, this is a guy who played a total of 14 minutes in the previous four games. In the event of an extended AI absence, he’d likely be an inconsistent option. AI missed the Jan. 7 game against the Wolves and Green got the start then and put up 13/2/2 with a steal and a 3. And when AI sat out on Nov. 21, Willie responded with a 1-for-14 shooting night.

In Cleveland, Mike Miller returned with a vengeance, going for a game-high 28 points including 5 3s. Whether he starts of comes off the bench, Miller will get his 3s, but we all know that Memphis can be frustrating. I’d like to point out the 45 minutes that Drew Gooden received last night. With Anderson Varejao out for at least a month, Gooden could see around 40 minutes nightly, which could lead to him being a top-30 player over that time span.

Not much to look at in the Boston/Indiana game. With Al Jefferson lost early in the game, Mark Blount still only saw 16 minutes (due to foul trouble), and it was Kendrick Perkins that saw 26 minutes. Six points, 5 boards and 2 blocks is nothing special, but it’s something. It will be interesting to see if Perkins continues to see 20+ minutes or if the Celtics go back to giving Mark Blount more time. As sorry as Blount’s been, if he can get back to at least 30 mpg, he’ll be marginally useful. In December he saw 30.8 mpg and put up 12.4/6.4/1.7 on 55% shooting.

It was an ugly one in Detroit with Earl Boykins and Ben Wallace the high scorers with just 14 points. Boykins has a big game once every few weeks and is pretty consistent – but just consistent enough that winning teams shouldn’t be depending on him. He just doesn’t contribute all that much.

Latrell Sprewell has likely been on and off the waiver wire in your league for a while now. He had a great five-game stretch in the middle of the month, but then scored 5 points or less in 4 of his next 5 games. His 32-point outburst last night might tempt you, but unless he keeps hitting 5 3s a game, he won’t help you much. No steals, rebounds, assists, blocks, hasn’t shot above 44% since 1996 … don’t fall for it.

How about Mike James chucking up 17 shots in just 21 minutes in the Bucks loss to the Suns? Both he and Mo Williams had nice games – which is possible against the Suns – as they split 48 minutes, but James is just dying for an opportunity to get big minutes. 15/6/5 with 3 3s and a steal in just those 21 minutes last night. As I’ve said plenty of times before, I’d love to see him get his shot.

Dan Dickau is certainly making the most of his opportunity and with the news that Baron Davis is out at least another week, he should be snagged in all leagues, especially after his 23-point, 10-assist, 3-3s performance. The games won’t all be that great, but in 9 games as a starter he’s at 15.7/3.3/5.9 with 1.3 steals and 1.4 3s. He’s even got his FG% up to 42%. With Baron always a question mark, he could be quite valuable in the second half.

Raul Lopez was certainly last night’s breakout performer, going for 20/5/11 with 3 steals and 2 3s on great shooting from the field and the line. Feel free to pick him up and to expect good things for the next few weeks while Keith McLeod is out, but remember how frustrating Jerry Sloan can be. One defensive lapse and Lopez could be splitting time with Howard Eisley. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that, because it would be nice to see what Lopez can do.

With Josh Howard sitting out with back spasms, Jerry Stackhouse got the start and responded with 20/6/4 and 2 steals in 38 minutes. Stackhouse is a sure thing to put up those type of numbers when starting, but the Mavs obviously like him coming off the bench, and unless Howard makes a trip to the IL, forget about Jerry and his empty points.

Holy redhead! With Jason Collins nursing a strained hamstring, Brian Scalabrine went off for 29/10/2 with a steal and a block in 40 minutes. If Collins misses some time, Scalabrine could be intriguing, but probably not. That 12-of-17 shooting was certainly not expected from the career 39% shooter, and he’s never shown signs of being able to contribute much in 3s, steals or blocks.

Jumaine Jones’s line wasn’t too great – 11/7/0 – but he did add 3 3s, 2 steals and a block. And most importantly, he saw 43 minutes of action, most on the team. Lamar Odom was in foul trouble all night, so that was a factor, but in five starts this season Jones has averaged 40.6 minutes. His lack of steals is disturbing, but he gets good boards and great 3s for a SF, and should be a decent utility option until Kobe gets back.

With most NBA teams having played between 40 and 42 games at this point, we’re right about at the midseason mark. So it seems like a good time to go ahead and dish out some midseason fantasy awards:

All-Fantasy First Team

PG LeBron James – A top-3 pick for the next 10-12 years.
SG Tracy McGrady – Scoring is down, but boards, assists, FG%, steals, and blocks are up.
SF Shawn Marion – If you let him slip out of the Top 5 next year, your league sucks.
PF Kevin Garnett – Still the best.
C Dirk Nowitzki – Having a career year with Nash gone.

Hey, no real surprises here. All of these players should have gone in the first round of your drafts, and at least 3 (KG, Dirk, and McGrady) were top 5 picks in most drafts. If nothing else, this should serve as a healthy reminder to NOT take risks early in your draft. The best players are the best players for a reason.

All-Fantasy Second Team

PG Dwayne Wade – Gets the nod over Nash because of his scoring and defense.
SG Allen Iverson – His transition to the point couldn’t be going better – his FG% and assists are up, his turnovers are down.
SF Rashard Lewis – Beats out Peja simply because it wasn’t expected.
PF Amare Stoudamire – Now that Nash is back, Amare is exploding again.
C Tim Duncan – Steady. Just, steady.

The surprising thing here is how mediocre a lot of the late-first round/early second round picks have been this year. Some due to injury (AK-47, Baron Davis), some suspension (Jermaine O’Neal), some for no real reason (Kobe, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Yao Ming). So this group is a little more rag-tag.

Most Improved Players

PG – Rafer Alston – His jump in assists (from 4.5 to 7.2) makes him a legit PG.
SG – Larry Hughes – If it wasn’t for his injury, he’d be all-fantasy second team.
SF – Bobby Simmons – Although he’s slowed down of late, particularly in percentages.
PF – Drew Gooden – In just 3 more mpg, he’s averaging 2.5 more points, 2.9 more boards, and shooting incredibly better both from the field and the line.
C – Amare Stoudamire – He’s shooting 57% from the field. Read that again.

Here, I tried to avoid people who you would expect to do better (second-year guys, guys who are just getting more minutes), and this is what I came up with. All of these guys are going to be drafted next year well ahead of where they were drafted this year, particularly Hughes.

Biggest Disappointments

PG – Carlos Arroyo – I don’t think anyone saw that coming. From future stud to no value in a single season.
SG – Gerald Wallace – A very popular pick in October, he just hasn’t realized his potential, and could go undrafted next year.
SF – Carmelo Anthony – I’m sorta inclined to give him a pass on this year.
PF – Lamar Odom – Maybe it’s just me who was disappointed, but I was expecting big things from Lamar this year. His rebounding has been great, but everything else points to a sub-par year in the shadow of Kobe.
C – Yao Ming – He doesn’t average 20 points, 10 boards, 2 blocks, ONE assist, or one steal. He’s not worth drafting before late in the third round next year.

Again, I tried to avoid people who are just getting older (like Sprewell, for example) or suffered through injury, etc.

So there you have it. Maybe later we’ll throw in some other categories as well, suggestions are always welcome.

There’s nothing that creates action in fantasy basketball land like when a team’s leading scorer goes down. When Kobe Bryant went down in L.A., it helped jumpstart Lamar Odom (he’s had his two highest scoring games of the season in the five that Kobe’s missed and barely missed a triple double last night), moved Chucky Atkins from marginal fantasy player to almost stud (top 50 on the 15-Day Rater), and made Jumaine Jones worth a roster spot in most leagues. When Tracy McGrady missed a game the other night Bob Sura almost racked up a triple double and John Barry went off for 19-6-5 with three 3s. So now the Memphis Grizzlies are the latest team to lose their main option, with Pau Gasol making his first ever trip to the IL. This is obviously bad news for Gasol owners. Since The Czar came aboard in Memphis, Gasol had clearly become the #1 option and was putting up very strong numbers. Despite a recent slump, he still found himself at #34 on the 30-Day Rater, and was a huge contributor in FG% and blocks. His owners have to help that a few weeks off with cure what ails him (his foot), and that when he comes back he will again be the team’s top scoring option. This isn’t a sure thing. Since a 31-point outburst on Jan. 11, he averaged only 30.5 mpg in his next six contests. Granted, he was fighting the injury then, but the fact that the Grizzlies went 5-1 in that span and won without him last night could lead Fratello to go back to something resembling Hubie’s dreaded rotation. Let’s hope this doesn’t happen; even if you don’t own Gasol, it’s better for all fantasy players if there’s a defined rotation.

But now that Pau’s out of the picture for a little bit, let’s look at what the new picture will look like. The most obvious benefactor is perhaps FBB’s favorite non-superstar, Stromile Swift. He was already mentioned earlier today, and you saw the stat lines when he gets minutes. Basically, if he gets the 35-37 minutes that Gasol had been getting – which is no given – I predict he will put up better numbers than Gasol. In Gasol’s extremely productive December, he averaged 36.3 mpg and put up the following numbers: 19.8/8.8/3.0 with 1.6 blocks, 0.6 steals on 50% and 81%. So let’s take Swift’s numbers this year and put them at 36 mpg: 16.2/8.5/1.2 with 3.0 blocks, 0.8 steals on 44% and 75%. OK, definite drop in points, assists and FG%, with the only increase in blocks (although it is a sizeable one). The thing is, Swift got those numbers when Gasol was still around. When they were on the court together, Gasol would usually be looked to first. That won’t necessarily be the case anymore. I’ll stand by my prediction, and if you Gasol owners were able to snag Swift, I don’t suspect you’ll miss Gasol at all.

OK, so say Swift takes Gasol’s production, does that mean everything else remains the same? Of course not. There’s still Swift’s previous production to take into account. That’s where everyone else comes in. It’s too bad Mike Miller had to come back, because if there had been a situation where he, Bonzi Wells and Gasol were all out, it could have meant some serious, serious value for the remaining Grizzlies. As is, I’ll be the next to jump on the James Posey bandwagon. He’s been a rather big bust so far this year, but for those of you who remember the second half of last year, you know how effective he can be. Remember when I talked about avoiding swingmen for the most part because they are empty points? Posey is the opposite of this. When he’s on, he is a 3s and steals machine, a real impact player in those categories. You have to love that he saw 44 minutes last night, but without Miller and Wells it was sort of a given. Still, as he rounds into shape, and with Fratello’s continued focus on defense (Posey is a top defender), you have to like his chances for a big second half, with these next few games a real chance to take off.

The rest of the situation is still pretty muddled. Shane Battier proved he could be counted on as a starter in Mike Miller’s absence, but if/when Miller comes back, he should probably be cut loose. See, this is one of those tricky scenarios. Even when he’s coming off the bench, Battier gets just enough blocks, steals and 3s to give him some value. And since Miller and Posey have been far from perfectly healthy this year, he could be worth keeping on your bench. But this is one of those situations where you have a guy who’s solid, but if you find the hot hand, someone like Jumaine Jones right now, he’s probably the better bet. No question Battier’s the better player, but his 25 minutes still aren’t as good as Jumaine’s 35 minutes, most likely.

Be sure to follow their game at Cleveland tonight to see how the minutes break down. If Miller and Wells are both back, this should be a pretty good indicator of how things will look for the next couple weeks in Memphis.

Thirty games later, he returns. Stephen Jackson, while never a premier player in the NBA, is now returning to the court tonight for the first time since the big throw-down in Detroit, so all eyes will be on him. How will the fans in Boston react? How will Jackson react to them? While those are interesting angles, the real story is going to be on the court. The Pacers are going to be settling into what should be their roster for the rest of the year, barring injuries. What can we expect from them upon Jackson’s return? Let’s check it out:

Jermaine O’Neal, PF – While you weren’t watching, Jermaine O’Neal has quietly been putting up the best numbers of his career by far. In January, he’s averaging a ridiculous 32 points a game, to go along with his solid 9.3 rebounds and 2.2 blocks. He has become the true focal point of this team without Jackson and Artest on the floor, and he’s stepped up into the role nicely. With Jackson back, however, you may see his numbers come down. I’d still expect him to average about 25 points a game (his previous career high was 20.8), and keep his other numbers about where they are.

Jamaal Tinsley, PG – Here’s some fun numbers for you:

Pre-brawl: 9.8 points, 8.3 assists, 1.4 3’s, 2.7 steals

Post-brawl: 19.96 points, 6.1 assists, 1.68 3’s, 2.1 steals

Tinsley has undoubtedly been the biggest benefactor of these suspensions. Even in his breakout (and best) year, 2001, he only scored 9.4 points per game. So his nearly 20 ppg output probably won’t last long. However, without Artest in the lineup, he’ll still get plenty of looks at the basket. I’d look for him to settle in at around 14-15 points, with 7 assists, a 3, and 2 steals.

Freddie Jones, SG – Well, it was fun while it lasted, Freddie. You haven’t really been worth owning for the last month or so, but we had a nice ride there at the end of November through the middle of December, didn’t we? Now that Jackson’s back you’ll probably fall totally off the radar, but I get the feeling we haven’t heard the last of you.

Reggie Miller, SG – He might have come back from injury on fire in early December, but now the old man is starting to show some age again. Despite getting 32 minutes a game, his January numbers – 9.2 points, 1.2 3’s, 0.6 steals – landed him on many a waiver wire. Now that Jackson will eat some of his minutes, he will have little to no value over the rest of the season.

Stephen Jackson, GF – Jackson is going to be an interesting pick over the rest of the year. Without Artest, he will easily see 30-35 mpg, and so he’ll definitely be worth owning for his 3’s and steals. It will be interesting to see how Coach Carlisle works him back into the offense, though. He could really score anywhere from 12-17 points a game from here on out.

GIVE. SWIFT. MINUTES.

Now that Pau Gasol is injured, it’s time for me to give me quarterly plea for Stromile Swift to get 30-35 minutes a game. Honestly, he could be a top-30 fantasy player if he got those kind of minutes. Look at these stats:

This year’s stats:
9.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.8 blocks in 21.3 minutes

When getting 25 or more minutes per game (12 games):
16 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.8 blocks.

When getting 30 or more minutes per game (4 games):
19 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.5 blocks.

How Swift consistently loses minutes to guys like Lorenzen Wright is completely beyond me. Because every time – EVERY TIME – he get starter’s minutes he puts up fantastic numbers. Hopefully he’ll shine while Gasol is out and force his way into 30 minutes a night.

Quote my FBB cohort: “But yeah, you certainly snuck into first place. Nice work from Tinsley, Hinrich, Big Z, but other than that, I have no idea how you’re in first place.”

OK, I’m going to make this a bit more conventional “blog” today by focusing on myself. But there’s a reason. It’s true, I did find myself at the top of the standings yesterday morning. (I since fell back into second, but just play along.) Take a quick look at my roster, though, and you might find that a bit odd. I have no superstar. Ray Allen was my first-round pick, and while he got off to a great start, he’s been rather ordinary since then, currently coming in at #15 on the Player Rater and only #33 in the past month. My second round pick, Baron Davis, has predictably missed more than half the season. My sixth round pick, Theo Ratliff, was a monumental disappointment who has been released. Yet I’m still at the top. How’d I do it?

First, I should mention that even without Davis’s services for most of the year I have a dominant lead in assists and am a very solid second place in steals, and have a possible 30 out of 36 points in 3s, steals and assists, which you may recognize as the PG categories. This is because I loaded up on PGs. You load up on PGs, good things happen. Did I know Jermaine O’Neal, Stephen Jackson and Ron Artest would find themselves suspended for a large portion of time, leaving Tinsley as the team’s #1 option? Well, except for the Artest part, no. So that was sort of lucky. Even with Davis, Hinrich and Tinsley, I went with Marko Jaric late in the draft. Imagine if I hadn’t dropped him right before he got hot. But by playing the rotating PG game and getting decent play from guys like Speedy Claxton, Earl Watson, Rick Brunson, Jason Hart (you liked those 21 assists over the weekend, right?), etc. for a few games at a time, I was able to put myself in very strong positions in these three categories?

How do you supplement all of those point guards? With big men, big men, big men. For much of the year I’ve had four point guards and four big men in the starting lineup. Forget about those middling shooting guards/small forwards. You want big men who will help you in FG%, rebounds and blocks. Again, I got some good luck when Hubie Brown quit and Pau Gasol became a borderline stud, but those things happen sometimes. Baron goes down, Tinsley goes up. Ratliff sucks, Gasol becomes a stud. Luck tends to even out over time. Ilgauskas, Gasol and P.J. Brown have all been very serviceable, and as much of a stiff as Ratliff was, I was able to build such a big lead in blocks in the couple months he was around that I was able to release him and still maintain that lead with relative ease.

Back to those swingmen … the best of the best are obviously great assets – Kobe, Tracy, etc. But for the most part these players aren’t helping you too much. As a general rule I tend to avoid players who have points as one of their two best categories. Guys like Paul Pierce, Michael Redd, Richard Hamilton, Corey Maggette, etc. It’s not that these players don’t have value, but it is inflated because of points. It’s not as simple as this, but 22 points and .5 steals is nowhere near as valuable as 13 points and 1.8 steals. This is why for those SG/SF slots I like to try and find people who have something different to offer. (For more on this, see my cohort’s earlier post from today.) Tayshaun Prince and Josh Smith are the only two guys who have seen time at my SF position. They may not score a lot, but their high FG% and blocks are especially valuable at that position.

By almost all of your roster space on point guards and big men, you’re taking care of 6 of the 8 categories, leaving only points and FT% out there, and you can argue that loading up on PGs helps you in FT%. The thing about those two categories is that those are the hardest to be dominant in. Let’s go back to the Rater leaders in each category. You’ve got Shaq in FG% at 4.67, Maggette/Dirk in FT% at 1.61, Q in 3PM at 3.45, KG in rebounds at 3.61, Nash in assists at 4.27, Hughes in steals at 2.75, Timmy in blocks at 5.03 and AI in points at 2.11. See how points and FT% have the lowest numbers? That means the average player will be closer to the median in these categories, meaning you can focus on them a bit less.

Another reason I’m at the top is that I’ve used more games than the rest of the teams near the top of the standings. Some may think this puts me in a bad position for later in the year, but that’s just not the case. I haven’t gone crazy with filling every position every night; I’m still six games under the projected max as of right now. But if someone’s going to have a good game, I’m going to take advantage of it. Marcus Camby’s not going to play tonight, so even though I’m right on target for games at center, I’m going to take Nene off the bench and plug him in. Take the stats whenever you can get them. You’ll have enough guys miss games due to random injury to make up for it. Also, the options for making up games at the end of the season aren’t that great. So you’ve got 9 games in hand at center, but the trading deadline has passed, so you’re stuck plugging Jerome James or Etan Thomas in there and hoping for the best.

So there’s a quick look into my thought process while managing my team. It’d be a lot easier if we could just get all of the best players, but that’s not how it works. And sometimes, if you play it right, even if you don’t have any of the best players, you can still do pretty well for yourself.

We’re starting to get to the point in fantasy basketball seasons where you look at the standings and realize you need a LOT of help in certain categories. And depending on the category, you generally know where to go for that help. Need blocks? Look to the big men. Need assists or steals? You need a guard. Right?

Wrong.

Really, what you need is to look for players who excel in a category relative to others at their same position. A center who shoots 85% from the line is more valuable than a guard who shoots 85% from the line, because you’re getting help in an area that you wouldn’t be expecting it in. So with that in mind, let’s look at some categories in which this strategy might be useful.

Blocks

Dwayne Wade, PG (MIA)
When you look at Wade’s stats, it’s easy to overlook the fact that he gets 1 block a game. I mean, 23.8 points, 7.5 assists, 49.5% from the field … he’s got other categories that draw your attention. But for a point guard, his 1 block per game is outstanding. Of all the point guards in the league, only LeBron James (0.8), Mike Bibby (0.4) and Marko Jaric (0.4) get more than 0.3 blocks per game. And considering James isn’t necessarily a point guard, Wade basically more than doubles every other point guard when it comes to blocks. If he averages 1 block per game, and the average for a top-15 PG is about 0.25, that’s about 60 blocks over the course of the season that you’re getting from you PG position that everyone else isn’t. In most leagues, 60 points is good for at least 4-6 points at the end of the year.

Three’s

Raef Lafrentz, C (BOS)
Depending on who qualifies at center in your league, only 4 centers hit three pointers with any sort of regularity. Dirk Nowitzki (1.4), Clifford Robinson (1.0), Rasheed Wallace (0.8), and Raef Lafrentz (0.7) are the only ones to play regularly that hit more than one 3 pointer every 2 games. Of those, Dirk and Sheed don’t always qualify at center, and Clifford Robinson is so horrendous on the boards that we’re going to have to go with LaFrentz as our man here. His 0.7 3’s per game are pretty much 0.7 more than any other Center you could have on your team, good for about 57 3’s over the course of the year. That could make a big difference in the standings come April.

Free Throw %

Mehmet Okur, C (UTH)
Generally, when you’re looking at your team, your free throw percentage starts out real nice at the top of your screen with the guards, then slowly deteriorates and hits rock bottom by the time you get to your big men. From Shaq to Ben Wallace to Emeka Okafor, most of the worst free throw shooters in the league are centers. That’s why a player like Mehmet is such a gem. His 87% from the stripe is far and away the best of any center. He’s already one of the top FT shooters in the league – the fact that he’s a center is just icing on the cake.