Things are finally starting to get interesting in the NBA. We saw a trade go down late Friday, the return of a potential top-5 fantasy player from injury, and what could be the annual Chris Webber injury. Oh, and Marcus Camby had to be helped off the court Friday after spraining his ankle as well. Let’s try to put the pieces together here:

Jim Jackson to Phoenix

Well that didn’t take TOO long. After sitting out almost a month, Jim Jackson finally got his wish and was sent from New Orleans to the title-contending Phoenix Suns. In return, the Hornets got sharpshooter Casey Jacobsen, prospect Maciej Lampe, and filler (i.e. Jackson Vroman). Jackson, ever the mature individual, refused to play for the meddling Hornets, so this trade should come as a surprise to no one. Let’s take a look at how both teams are affected:

Phoenix Suns: When we looked at the bench of the Phoenix Suns a few weeks ago, nobody really stood out as that quality 6th man that the Suns needed to spell their starters. As such, their starting five (Stoudemire, Nash, Marion, Q, and Joe Johnson) all average between 34 and 39 minutes a night. So it was clear that they needed to find someone they could rely on to come in and take up some minutes. Jackson is a nice fit here, but he won’t have any real value unless they have an injury clear some space for him. Remember, in Houston he was decent, with 13.3/4.8/3.6 and over 2 3’s per game, but that was in 41 minutes. He’ll be lucky to see 25 minutes a game as the 6th man in Phoenix. There has been talk of a Joe Johnson/Samuel Dalembert trade, but don’t believe the rumors. Jackson is going to be the sixth man here – a role he flourished in with the Kings in 2002, and expect Johnson, Q, and Marion to each see reduced minutes, but nothing too drastic.

New Orleans Hornets: Going with the old quantity over quality approach, I really like this deal for the Hornets. Casey Jacobsen should be able to step right in and provide quality minutes at the 2 guard, while Lampe should have some space to grow, albeit for his third team in 1 1/2 years. Jacobsen could have some minor fantasy value over the rest of the year. Look for something like 13/4/3 with 2 3’s and maybe a steal. Actually, pretty close to what Jim Jackson was doing in Houston. Lampe is a fantasy basketblog favorite for down the line, but is certainly nowhere close to being a consistent contributor this year.

Wearing Down

Every year, it happens. Every year. You look like you’ve got a great fantasy team, and then all of a sudden, a game here, a game there, and the WHAM none of your players are even in the lineups! In an 82 game season, where the playoffs are far more important than the regular season, players are often more than happy to sit out a few games here and there over the second half of the season to rest some nagging injuries. This weekend some of the most notorious sit-outs were starting to show signs of their annual breakdown. Let’s take a look:

Chris Webber, F (SAC) – Webber hasn’t played 70 games since 2000, but this year he’s been on pace to cross that barrier, having missed only 3 games so far this year. Just when things were looking too good to be true, Webber turned his ankle and left the game on Sunday. There haven’t been any definitive signs yet out of Sacramento, but a bad ankle AND a bad knee could mean a poor second half for C-Webb.

Marcus Camby, F/C (DEN) – When he’s not busy waiting by the mailbox for his ESPN The Magazine, Camby spends his time injuring himself in just about every way possible. SO far this year, it’s been back pain, bronchitis, a hamstring, and a bruised tailbone. Now he’s sprained an ankle, and while he claims he’ll be ready for the Nuggets’ next game on Tuesday, this could be bad news for him, and great news for Nene.

Allen Iverson, G (PHI) – No one is going to question AI’s toughness, or his love for discussing practice. But he’s missed over 10 games in 6 of his last 7 seasons, and has already missed two this year. Now he’s a game-time decision for tonight after injuring his hip on Saturday in Orlando. Nonetheless, with the 76ers vying for the Atlantic Division title (if you can call it that), expect AI to miss minimal time, and be an effective player through the second half.

Baron Davis, PG (NOR) – Talk about a throwaway year for the Aquagreen Baron. He came out of the box on fire, then hurt himself and was out about 6 weeks, slowly worked his way back into the lineup, started 8 games, then reinjured himself and has sat out the last four. Anything – anything – that you can get out of him at this point is pure bonus.

Y’all Just Can’t Get Enough

So, you love reading fantasy basketblog, but wish you could find it in more places? Your problems are solved! Our friends over at Fantasy NBA Blog are posting an article of ours over on their site once a week. So go check out their page as well, because you just can’t get enough fantasy basketball analysis.

I hope you picked up Jason Hart last night. I know I did. Once I saw that Juan Dixon was being removed from the starting lineup in favor of Jarvis Hayes, I sent him packing and went with the young Bobcat. This was a rather easy decision. Juan gets sent to the bench, where he will be lucky to see 30 minutes per game. Jason Hart will be in the starting lineup for at least two games this week, as Brevin Knight is nursing a sprained ankle. While he’s definitely out tonight and is listed as questionable for Sunday, Kobe Bryant and Jason Richardson owners know that sprained ankles are the easiest injuries to overcome, so Hart could find himself anywhere from two to five games.

As all of you regular readers know, this is just more of my point guard rotating that I love to do. Some of you may think I spend too much time talking about this, but besides drafting the best players, this is how you win. Sometimes people are hesitant to pick up a player because he’ll only be in the lineup for a few games, or they want to save up their games for later in the season. And we like that they do this. What’s the difference if a 20-point, 10-assist game comes in January or in April. The prevailing notion behind saving up games is that it will help you figure out where you are in the standings and you can then find players that will help you in the necessary categories. This is all well and good, but it doesn’t mean you should be passing up great games when you can get your hands on them. It takes just a small amount of research to figure out that Jason Hart is going to have a mighty productive weekend. Or rather, all signs point that way. Players aren’t machines, and it’s possible he could have a couple of duds. But let’s take a look and see how likely that is.

Brevin Knight has missed six games due to injury this year. Jason Hart also missed one of those games, and another one he left early. Still, that means there were four games that Knight missed that Hart played. His stats in those four games: 37.8 mpg, 11.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 9.5 apg, 1.5 spg. The most important number there is obviously the minutes. If the guy who is 4th in the league in assists per 48 minutes and 5th in the league in steals per 48 minutes is going to get a starting gig, even if it’s just for a few games, it is your DUTY as an intelligent fantasy player to pick him up. These are the kinds of little moves that will help win you championships. I can guarantee you that people saving up their games for the end of the season will not find people on the free agent list as productive as Hart has the chance to be over the next few games. It’s all about the opportunity.

Speaking of opportunity, it doesn’t look like Carlos Arroyo will be getting much of one. What an amazingly fast fall from almost grace for him. From the talk of the town after the Olympics to a DNP-Coach’s Decision in favor of some dude named Keith McLeod. I won’t pretend to know what went down between him and Jerry Sloan, but I will say this: With Hubie Brown out of Memphis, Jerry Sloan has taken over as most frustrating coach for fantasy players. We don’t ask for much. Ideally, we’d like NBA coaches to know who their best players are, and to play them the most. Jerry Sloan doesn’t seem to like this idea. Until Andrei Kirilenko shows that he’s at full strength, Carlos Boozer is the only player you can start on the Jazz. Matt Harpring’s minutes will likely be cut just enough with AK47’s return to render him useless, not that he was that useful anyway. Even getting in excess of 35 mpg in the past month he still checks in outside the top 100 on the 30 Day Rater. Arroyo in Detroit should do wonders for their bench. Remember what I said recently about Detroit and their smaller rotation, giving their starters extra value? Don’t rule that out, but once Arroyo gets into the swing of things he should provide 15-20 minutes of solid bench play. A very frustrating season for Arroyo owners, but then again, you shouldn’t have drafted him in the first place. Easy for me to say now, but here’s what I said before the season:

Did his Olympic exposure turn him from a sleeper to a bust? Quite possibly. Arroyo is a nice little player, but he doesn’t do two things that you want a good fantasy PG to do, and that’s shoot the 3 and get steals. In 28 mpg last year he averaged just 0.5 3pg and 0.9 spg. He’s young and can surely improve, and he probably will, but if he goes in the 6th round, it’s probably a round or two too early.

Yes, I’m a genius. As for the Utah PG situation now … well, nothing has changed. Arroyo hasn’t been a factor for a couple of weeks, so it’s still “Keith McLeod” and Raul Lopez splitting time. As long as they both stay below 35 minutes, they aren’t worth your time. Lopez is intriguing as he’s upped his 3pg from 0.3 last year to 0.6 this year, despite seeing his minutes drop by more than 6 per game. His steals have also stayed pretty constant. He’s the one to keep an eye on here, but with Jerry Sloan running the ship, don’t get too excited. Especially since Howard Eisley’s also hanging around to make things even murkier.

As if we needed any more of a reason to believe that Steve Nash is the MVP of the league this year. Ever since he went down with an injury last week, the Suns have been 0-3. They haven’t topped 100 points in each of their last 2 games, the first time that’s happened to them on back-to-back occasions. But the most worrying thing that we’ve seen from the Suns is the unraveling of Amare Stoudamire.

Stoudamire, as you’ll recall, came out of the box on fire in November. He racked up 26.2 points, 9.1 boards and 2.1 blocks per game, and was looking like a top-5 Center, particularly with his amazing 57% shooting from the floor. He really hasn’t slowed down all that much, except in blocks, where since November he’s averaged about 1.3 per game. However, since Nash went down, Stoudamire’s game has completely fallen apart.

Stoudamire’s biggest assets, of course, are his scoring and FG%, where he is 4th and 2nd in the league, respectively. But without Nash, he has had the following nights from the floor: 9-24, 5-18, and 4-11. That’s about 34% shooting for a guy who’s been clocking in the mid-50’s all year long. Now granted, I’m not saying that he’s completely useless without Nash. Up until this year he was about a 47% shooter from the field. But still, the numbers are pretty shocking.

So what does this all mean? Nash should be back soon, so Stoudamire owners don’t have much to worry about for now. But down the road, if either Nash or Stoudamire head to new teams, it may have a pretty rough effect on Stoudamire. Clearly, Nash is getting him the ball in good spots on the floor, giving him good opportunities to score without having to create his own shot. So after his poor performances this past week, it’s getting harder to tell just how good Stoudamire is, and how much of it is simply him benefiting from Nash being the best point guard in the league right now.

Unfrozen Caveman Center

Chris Kaman, what did you eat for breakfast all week? He hadn’t topped 13 points all year long, then in three consecutive games scored 23, 18, and 21 points while grabbing 36 rebounds and blocking 5 shots. In January, he’s been acting like a real-life actual basketball player, averaging 11.9/8.2 with .9 blocks. He’s been a pretty hot pickup, but I would keep him on a pretty short leash. In fact, after his 8 point, 4 rebound performance last night, it may be time to start looking elsewhere. Sure it’s just one game, but when you don’t top 13 points all year then break out like he did, it looks much more like a hot streak than a trend.

The Return of AK

Well it’s about time. Andrei Kirilenko is ready to return, albeit slowly, to the court this weekend. He shouldn’t get much playing time on Saturday, but we’d expect that by Wednesday’s home game against Seattle, he should be back to his old self. For AK owners, this is possibly the key to turning around your season, so you might be surprised when I say this, but:

Trade him.

These next few days are going to be the point of the season where he will have the absolute most trade value. He’s not going to continue to block 4.4 shots a game. His rebounding is down from last year, as is his scoring. He’s not the least bit comfortable with the knee brace he’s been given. If he comes back slower than expected from the knee injury, or continues with less scoring or rebounding, his value drops. This might be the point in the year where he has the most value, so it’s worth trying to move him.

It seems like the time is ripe to check in on another team. Let’s hope I can offer some better insight as opposed to last week when I went over the Blazers. Ruben Patterson has been productive as we predicted, but it’s amazing how even without three top forwards, Theo Ratliff has been worthless. I finally cut bait. And I feel bad for those of you who picked him up after he saw 40 minutes the other night, only for him to play a single minute yesterday. Those are the breaks.

The Celtics have managed to get into first place in the Atlantic Division on the strength of their sterling 18-20 record. But the team is playing well lately, winning three of four, and even though they go on the road for their next three, with games at New Jersey, Atlanta and Charlotte, they stand a decent chance of getting to the .500 mark soon. Danny Ainge has come under plenty of fire since he took the reigns a couple years ago, but it looks like things might be on the right track. But then again, playing in that division, my 7th grade Montgomery County Rec League team might do some damage. We were a juggernaut, I tell ya. Sean Rump, Jerry Brown, Gilmore Thompson, Brad Blondes, our vicious 1-3-1 trapping zone. A team for the ages. Anyway, back to the Celts…

After the 2001-2002 season, it looked like Paul Pierce was on his way to becoming one of the top players in the league, averaging 26 ppg with nearly 7 rpg while leading his team to within two wins of the NBA finals. But it’s been all downhill from there for Pierce. All you have to do is look at his stats to see the obvious decline. His scoring continues to decline, but the rest of his game is basically the same as last year. The big thing going for him is that by taking his FGA from 18.7 per game to 15.9 per game, he’s boosted his FG% almost three points to 43%. I’m sure his owners would gladly sacrifice a bucket a game for the non-crippling FG%. Another thing working in Pierce’s favor is his durability. He’s only 20th on the Player Rater by totals, but because he’s yet to miss a game (and has missed just five in the past five years), he’s ranked 12th overall. Still, Pierce certainly doesn’t look like a first-round talent anymore. Pierce makes a good trade target due to his relative health, but you have to worry that his FG% will drop back down to closer to 40%.

It looks like time might be running out on Raef Lafrentz. He’s been a solid if not spectacular contributor this year, managing to play in all but one game, even though he’s been limited to 27 mpg. For those of you thinking he would go back to hitting 1.5 3pg to go with 3bpg … well, I hope no one was actually thinking he would do that. Getting almost a three per game from your center slot to go with a healthy 7.5 boards and 48% shooting was good enough to put him at #63 on the Player Rater, meaning he has value as a starter in every league. But January has not been kind to Raef. He’s shooting just 43%, seeing fewer minutes, grabbing fewer boards and blocking fewer shots. His knees may be starting to give out, and with some fresh-legged youngsters ready to see more time on the court, it would certainly be advisable to see what you can get for Raef now, while you can get something.

There are worse players you could fill your roster with than Ricky Davis – and his 74 ranking on the Rater proves that – but he’s just not a player I love. On the plus side, he’s not someone who will hurt your percentages, and other than rebounds, he doesn’t really hurt you anywhere. Of course, he doesn’t help anywhere, either. He’s similar to Tayshaun Prince in that regard, but at least Tayshaun is a decent source of blocks from the SF position, whereas from the same position Ricky gives you only slightly above average steals and below averages 3s and assists. And of course, he comes off the bench. He still sees 32 mpg, but that’s just not quite enough to do damage. Since he went to the bench there have been six games where he saw at least 35 minutes. In those six games his averages are: 20/3.7/3.3 with 1.7 steals and 1 three. That little extra bump in points, steals and 3s shows what he could do with that extra time, but unless Doc Rivers yanks Jiri Welsch from the starting lineup, Davis is going to be one of those borderline guys.

OK, he’s the big buzz guy this week, so let’s check out Al Jefferson. It certainly doesn’t hurt him that Sports Guy raves about him semi-regularly. Before we get to the good, let’s talk about the bad. 1) The guy has foul problems. Big time foul problems. He’s averaging 2.7 fouls per game in only 16 mpg. In his nine January games where he’s seen 19 mpg, those fouls are up to 3.7. Even if a situation presents itself, it’s going to be hard for him to stay on the court for 30+ minutes if he’s always fighting foul trouble. 2) He’s not a great free throw shooter. He’s not horrible, mind you, and he’s gotten better each month, but if he ever does get serious PT he’s going to get to the line a lot, and even 65% will do some serious harm. 3) He’s a black hole in assists. He has a whopping 10 on the year, bringing to mind Amare Stoudemire’s rookie season. He is a PF, so it’s not like you’re looking to him for assists, but even if he got to start it’s hard to see him getting much more than 1.5 per game.

Jefferson is averaging an absolutely ridiculous 7.9 rpg in just 19 minutes in January, and has been shooting around 53% all year. If we take his January numbers and average them out to 32 mpg, we get: 14.8/13.3/1.0 with 1.7 blocks. Very nice, but let’s not get carried away and look at the big picture: absolutely nothing in assists or 3s, a below average FT%, negligible steals. He should average 20ppg sometime soon, but I don’t see it happening this year. That means, at best, he’s a three-category player, and he won’t average 13 boards a game. If you’re in need of a big man, then go for it – especially with Raef on borrowed time and the guy below being the biggest stiff in the world – but don’t expect any miracles from here on out.

My FBB cohort has had Mark Blount in his starting lineup the entire year. I finally staged an intervention today and I think he’s finally been removed. It’s about time. If you look at his numbers, they’re extremely similar to last year’s, but that’s when you have to remember that he saw next to no time in the first half and just blew up in the second half. Players that have been better than Blount in the last 30 days: DerMarr Johnson, Gordan Giricek, John Salmons, Eric Snow. And there are 172 others. Last night’s game was certainly the low point, where he didn’t manage a single point or rebound in 22 minutes, in a game where his team snapped the red-hot Bulls’ 7-game winning streak. That’s not good. With all the injuries around the league, there’s a good chance there’s someone out there that can help your team far more than Blount for the next few weeks. It’s time to let go.

Drafting a rookie in your fantasy basketball draft is always a risky move. Save for the occasional stud, you generally won’t want to take a rookie until very late in the draft. Drafting second-year players, however, can be a great way to get nice return on your draft picks. Look at some of the sophomores drafted this year, where they were drafted and how they look on the player rater so far:

LeBron James
Average Draft Position: 13.95
Player Rater: 3rd

Dwayne Wade
Average Draft Position: 36.57
Player Rater: 8th

Kirk Hinrich
Average Draft Position: 51.09
Player Rater: 30th

Chris Bosh
Average Draft Position: 74.72
Player Rater: 52nd

Luke Ridnour
Average Draft Position: 111.07
Player Rater: 78th

So on that note, I thought it would be a good idea to check in on this year’s rookie class, and see what we might be able to expect for next year.

Emeka Okafor, F/C (CHA)
15.2 ppg, 11.2 rpg, 1.3 blocks, 45% FG, 59% FT
Okafor is going to be a top-10 center for probably the next 10 years. You can count the number of centers who are automatic double-doubles on one hand – even if you have a finger amputated. The big let-down for Okafor has been his poor block numbers, but that should improve with time and with a better team developing around him.
Next year’s draft prospects: 4th to 6th round.

Dwight Howard, PF (ORL)
10.3 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 1.6 blocks, 50% FG, 64% FT
When you look at Howard’s numbers, they really remind you of Chris Bosh’s rookie campaign. I think that’s about where Howard is headed. Remember, Bosh was the same age last year as Howard is this year, too.
Next year’s draft prospects: 5th to 7th round.

Ben Gordon, G (CHI)
13.4 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.8 assists, 1.4 3PM, 43% FG, 84% FT
Gordon can certainly score, but other than points and threes, he hasn’t shown that he’ll help you in any other categories whatsoever. He may be a Cuttino Mobley type, but it’s too soon to tell.
Next year’s draft prospects: Anywhere after the 10th round.

Andre Iguodala, GF (PHI)
8.9 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.8 assists, .6 3PM, 1.6 stl, .8 blocks, 47% FG, 75% FT
Iguodala is one of those guys where you look at his stats, and aren’t very impressed, but then you look at overall player raters and he just manages to be way higher than you’d expect. It’s hard to recommend a guy that doesn’t score 10 ppg, but next year he should be able to cross that barrier, and his steals and threes point to him being a Doug Christie type.
Next year’s draft prospects: 8th to 10th round.

Josh Smith, SF (ATL)
7.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.6 assists, 1.9 blocks, .9 steals, 50% FG, 64% FT
Well I couldn’t get through this post without discussing Josh Smith, whom my fantasy basketblog cohort apparently has a total crush on. Basketball-wise, I mean. Probably. But yes, he’s a human highlight reel, and should be among the blocks leaders for years to come. He needs to score more, but with Antoine Walker out of the picture next year, he should get his shots.
Next year’s draft prospects: 6th to 10th round.

Deeper Sleepers

Anderson Varejao, PF (CLE) – Given minutes, he’s a blocks/boards monster.
Luke Jackson, G/F (CLE) – Maybe he’ll be better when he’s not hurt. Maybe.
Al Jefferson, PF (BOS) – Shown signs of greatness, particularly lately. Plus Sports Guy loves him.
Devin Harris, PG (DAL) – It’s a crowded backcourt. If it uncrowds, he’ll be a nice pick.
Trevor Ariza, SF (NYK) – His 18-point, 9-rebound performance vs. Chicago last week raised my eyebrows, for sure.

Out of all 30 teams in the NBA, there are only 21 players averaging 38 minutes per game. So that means two out of every three teams have a single player who sees 38 minutes each game. So how come last night, a night when only 10 teams played, did 29 players play at least 38 minutes? Well, for one thing there were two overtime games. Those two games did account for 18 of the 29 players. Still, 8 of those 18 players saw at least 43 minutes of action, meaning they would have played 38 minutes anyway. So even if we only count those 8 players, that still leaves 19 players on 10 teams who saw a legit 38 minutes of action. That’s almost two players per team, far higher than the .66 per team that’s the average.

What does this mean? Well, it might not mean a thing. But it probably does. As we get closer to the halfway point of the season, things are becoming clearer for most teams. Early season tinkering is coming to a close. Rotations are being firmed up. In Detroit, for example, only seven players are seeing significant playing time, with Lindsey Hunter and Antonio McDyess the only bench players getting off the pine too much. This is great news for Detroit’s starters, as it will take some serious foul trouble to keep each starter from seeing at least 35 mpg. Injuries are to blame elsewhere. In a game they trailed by 33 at halftime, a game that benchwarmers dream of, three Wizards starters – Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Juan Dixon – all saw upwards of 40 minutes. With Larry Hughes out, Eddie Jordan decided to stick with his offensive firepower.

Teams are starting to take games more seriously, knowing that jockeying for playoff position is well under way. The Houston bench combined for only 43 minutes in last night’s game. In their game exactly one month ago, a one-point loss at Charlotte, the bench combined for 75 minutes. Juwan Howard has never been a fantasy favorite due to his appalling inability to get a steal or a block, but if he keeps seeing 37 minutes, he might be able to help some team, somewhere.

Portland and Sacramento were also playing to win last night. The game did go to OT, but every starter still logged at least 40 minutes. It certainly helps that Portland’s top three forwards are all out, but these are the trends that you need to look for and act on. Sacramento has almost no bench to speak of. Each Sacramento starter is averaging more minutes in January than in any previous month. Combine this with the fact that one of those starters (guess which one?) is a candidate to go down with a serious injury every time he takes a step, and this makes guys like Mike Bibby, Brad Miller, Cuttino Mobley and Peja Stojakovic excellent targets in trades.

Here at Fantasy Basketball Headquarters, the snow is falling, the temperatures are dropping, and nobody wants to leave the house tonight. But don’t worry – with a full slate of NBA action going on, there’s plenty of games to keep you occupied. So heat up your soup, wrap yourself in blankets, and keep close watch on the following games to try and get an edge on your fantasy basketball opponents:

New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors, 7 PM

Here’s a matchup featuring two teams headed in drastically different directions. The Knicks are just 1-7 in 2005, including an embarrassing loss to the New Orleans Hornets and back-to-back losses to the surging Chicago Bulls. They welcomed Jamal Crawford back to the lineup on Monday, and subsequently watched him go 0-7 from long range and 4-14 overall from the field. Regardless, his return kills any fantasy value that Allan Houston had. Stephon Marbury also saw his stats bump up a bit during Crawford’s absence, enjoying 22.1 points and 9.6 assists in January (up from 19.9 and 8.2 in December). As Crawford eases his way back into the lineup, watch to see how much of Marbury’s ball-handling duties are taken away.

Toronto, on the other hand, is thriving after their addition-by-subtraction trade of Vince Carter. Winner of 4 of their last 5 and 6 of their last 8, the Raptors are enjoying their best stretch of the season. Chris Bosh has turned red hot, with 8 straight double-doubles and over 2 blocks a game so far in January. Rafer Alston has quietly turned into a top assist man, averaging 7.2 a game, including 9 per game in 2005. Meanwhile, Donyell Marshall continues to be one of the most frustrating players on the planet, as he is a total stud one night and riding the bench the next. He’s had great games in 2 of the last 3 outings, though, so another strong game tonight could mean he’s convincing coach Sam Mitchell that he belongs out on the floor.

Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns, 9 PM

Injuries have made both of these teams a little unpredictable right now. For Phoenix, Steve Nash has re-injured himself and won’t be running the leagues top offense again for at least another game or two. To make matters worse, backup PG Leandro Barbosa is also hurt (ironically, they ran into each other in practice). So who’s going to handle the ball for Phoenix? Signs point to Joe Johnson, who averaged 4.4 assists for the Suns last year. If he runs the show well he could see extended time at the point even when Nash returns, and that can only mean good things for his owners.

On the other side of the ball, even with Mike Miller on the injured list with a concussion, the Grizzlies’ swingman situation has not really cleared up. On Friday night against Charlotte, James Posey had the hot hand while Shane Battier had unproductive minutes and Bonzi Wells scored only 6 points. Then on Saturday against Milwaukee, Wells had the big game while Battier went 3-12 from the field and Posey contributed next to nothing other than his 4 three pointers. On Monday against Houston, none of the three had over 10 points. This looks like it might be a situation you just want to avoid. Or you can continue to torture yourself and study tonight’s game to look for clues as to who’s the long-term answer.

Minnesota Timberwolves at LA Lakers, 10:30 PM

This nationally televised match-up features two teams shuffling lineups and playing times in response to both injuries and poor results. Minnesota’s Sam Cassell is dealing with a nagging hamstring injury, while Mark Madsen is on the IL with a bad thumb and Michael Olowokandi is still serving his 4-game suspension for tussling with Denver’s Nene. This has led to a resurgence of sorts for Latrell Sprewell, who scored 54 points with 10 three pointers over a 2-game span last weekend, but then promptly laid a 4-point egg against the Raptors on Monday. Also worth watching is Eddie Griffin, a hot pickup early in the year, who cooled off but is seeing much more PT due to the thinned-out front line in Minnesota. He grabbed 18 rebounds and blocked 4 shots against Portland last Saturday.

We discussed the Lakers plenty already this week, so just scroll on down to yesterday’s Weekend Review for more on what to look for from the NoKobes tonight.

Well, hopefully you’ve cut bait on Rick Brunson by now. That’s how these things work – talk of the town one day, FA fodder the next. Remember that it has very little to do with talent but everything to do about opportunity. We weren’t excited about Brunson because he overnight became something more than a journeyman point guard. We were excited about him because he was the only point guard on the roster and was going to see 40 mpg. Once Darrick Martin (the brother of a former intern of mine, actually – yes, I’ve had interns) came aboard, it was apparent Brunson’s time as a relevant fantasy name was limited. Once Martin had one decent game, Brunson was done. Let’s take a quick look at some stat lines. Pre-Martin would be the 7 games Brunson started before the Clips signed Darrick, and Post-Martin … well, you can figure that out.

Pre-Martin: 36.7 mpg, 11.7 ppg, 4 rpg, 6.7 apg, 1 spg, 1.6 3pg
Post-Martin: 29.6 mpg, 5 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 6.3 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.4 3pg

Obviously a huge drop off, as he saw his numbers fall in every category except for steals. But all this does is back up our long-standing, constantly hammered-home mantra of “It’s (almost) all about PT.” Was Brunson really playing that much worse once Martin came around? Let’s look at some per-48 minute stats. And a quick note on per-48 stats – they aren’t meant to show what a player can do, just to compare players on an equal field, sort of like OBP or SLG or OPS in baseball.

Pre-Martin Per 48: 15.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 8.7 apg, 1.3 spg, 2.1 3pg
Post-Martin Per 48: 8.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 10.2 apg, 2.1 spg, .6 3pg

OK, his scoring definitely took a hit, mainly because he wasn’t connecting from downtown. But his other rate stats were actually slightly better once Martin came along. Brunson was more or less the same exact player, but once he lost that PT, he lost is FR (fantasy relevance – this is an abbreviation I’ll start using from here on out). So once again, this proves the theory: Germans love David Hasselhoff. Er, wait. I mean, it’s all about playing time.

We’ll stick with point guards, since I am always harping on and on about how important they are and how playing the FA list correctly can give you solid PG play throughout the year. With Brunson done, there doesn’t seem to be anyone to really fill his space, so let’s offer up a few names. (Before I start I’d like to point out that in general I’m assuming we are dealing with pretty deep leagues, at least 10 teams with 10 players per team, and in most cases 12 x 12.)

Dan Dickau
It’s hard for me in good conscience to recommend Dickau and his 39% shooting. But Baron Davis is down again, and even though he may play Wednesday, Baron is at the point where you’ve gotta see him on the floor to believe it. Dickau got the start, was on the court for 37 minutes yesterday, and despite shooting just 3-for-13 managed to score 16 points thanks for 9 perfect trips to the line. He also added 6 assists and a steal. Let’s just assume Baron misses a handful of games and Dickau sees 36 mpg. Taking his rate stats, that would put him at:
15.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 4.5 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.6 3pg

You’d like to see more assists there, as he’s really only helping in 3s and a bit in steals and assists, while doing serious damage to your FG%.

Juan Dixon
Not a point guard, I know. Believe me, I know. I’ve seen the majority of the games he’s played since he started college, and the guy is not a point guard. That said, we love PGs because they get assists, steals and 3s. Well, Juan won’t help you too much in assists, but he certainly will in the other two. Like my fantasy basketblog cohort pointed out, Juan will rack up the steals, even if it means blowing a coverage once in a while. He got only 27 minutes in the first game of Larry Hughes’ absence (don’t say I didn’t warn you on Friday) yesterday, but that’s because the Wizards starters were on the bench the entire 4th quarter.

But I like Juan for a couple reasons: 1) His 4th year option wasn’t picked up earlier this year, meaning he’s playing for a contract. And he knows this is likely his best chance to showcase himself. We’ve seen what playing for a contract can do for certain players (see Hughes, Larry). 2) Juan gets steals. He hasn’t been as effective so far this year, but in just 20.8 mpg last year he swiped 1.2 per game. He’s not even cracking the Top 50 in steals per 48 right now, but look for that to change with increased playing time. With Jarvis Hayes coming on, Anthony Peeler healthy and Gilbert Arenas not needing much time off, Juan isn’t guaranteed a ton of court time. Expect him to be closer to 30 minutes than 40 minutes. Taking his rate stats and putting him at 32 mpg, we see a line of:
16.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.8 apg, 1.2 spg, 1.8 3pg
That is very similar to the numbers above for Dickau. But since Juan is likely to increase his steals and Hughes is definitely out for at least a month, I like Dixon more.

Mike James
This one is a reach. Mo Williams left the game early a couple back but was back in the starting lineup the next game. He did rack up 9 assists, but was just 1-of-6 from the field and had 3 turnovers. Meanwhile, James has been trending upwards, averging 12 ppg on 51% shooting in January. In the Bucks win on Monday it was James, not Williams, who was in the entire fourth quarter. Now, as long as they are both suiting up, neither of them are reliable options. But should Williams take a few games off to heal, James should be grabbed. I’ll just point to his stats from his 55 games with Boston last year, in which he averaged a healthy – but by no means exorbitant – 30.6 mpg: 10.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.3 spg, 1.6 3pg. It’s those last two numbers that should jump out at you. That’s what you want from point guards, and given the chance, James can deliver. He’s Mike James, bitch.

The Kobe Fallout

The big news over the weekend, obviously, was taking place in Los Angeles, as the Lakers try to find some team identity while Kobe Bryant is out with a bad ankle. There are some people claiming that this team might be better off without him for a little bit, which is obviously ridiculous. As much as you might dislike Kobe (hey, I’m right at the top of that list), he is unquestionably a top 5 player in the league. So while the Lakers won’t get any better without him, that doesn’t mean that some role players will start seeing some more action. Who’s going to get the biggest bump in stats? Let’s take a look, starting with the Big Three.

Chucky Atkins, PG – While Kobe was certainly in the lineup as a “shooting guard”, he was pretty much the de facto point man for this team. Atkins was the catch-and-shoot deep threat for the Lakers, while Kobe ran the show. Now, that could all change. Atkins is already playing by far more minutes than ever before, with 35.8 per game this year. Without Kobe around, he’s playing more minutes (44/game) and is shooting the ball a ton (17 shots/game, up from 9.8 so far this year). On Monday, he jacked up 11 shots from long range, only hitting two, but nonetheless he’s got great short-term value right now and could be one of the top 3-point shooters in the league over the next fortnight.

Lamar Odom, F – Lamar seems like he’d be the most obvious benefactor of Kobe’s injury, but unlike my fantasy basketblog cohort, I’m not so sure. Yes, he looked great against Cleveland and then the Warriors, but then last night against the Jazz, Utah keyed on Odom, making other players step up and hurting Lamar’s numbers. He was only 3-11 from the field, and got off no threes. Odom might see a decent uptick in points, and his rebounds should stay strong, but look for his assists numbers to really take off. As we said above, Atkins is not really a playmaker, so that role will fall to Odom, who averaged 5.9 assists in 2001. Look for close to 5 assists per game from him over the next few weeks, up from a career-low 2.9 so far this year.

Caron Butler, F – Already enjoying a nice comeback year in LA, Butler has a huge chance to shine right now. He’s gotten his numbers back to the level they were at during his rookie year, and now without Kobe, Butler shifts from the #3 man to #2. Now that Odom is filling Kobe’s role, look for Butler to post similar numbers to what Odom’s been doing, albeit with about half the rebounds. 18 points, 7 boards, 2 assists, a steal and two threes would be a reasonable expectation from Butler, without going overboard.

Brian Cook, F – A borderline bench player all year, now might be the time to grab Cook off of waivers. We’ve raved about his 3-point shooting plenty, and now with 21 more shots per game to go around, he should get a lot of looks. He can also be an effective rebounder at times.

Tierre Brown, G – He’s going to get about 20-25 minutes a game, it seems. Over the last 2 months, he’s gotten over 20 mpg only 5 times, and here are his averages over that time: 11/1.8/4.6, .8 3PM, 1 Stl. If those kind of numbers can help your team, by all means grab him.

Sasha Vujacic, G – Sorry, Europhiles, but he’s just not ready yet. Vujacic is only 20 years old, and has racked up more DNP-CD’s than anything else this year.

Other Injuries Fallout

The Injured: Larry Hughes
The Benefactors: Juan Dixon, Jarvis Hayes.
Hughes was undoubtedly the biggest fantasy surprise so far this year, and I even put him in my Top 20 last week, so of course he breaks his thumb over the weekend and is out 4-6 weeks. Juan Dixon is an instant pick-up, as he’s not afraid to shoot and will go after steals like crazy (to the detriment of his team). Jarvis Hayes could also see more playing time and be relied upon for more offense.

The Injured: Rashard Lewis
The Benefactor: Vladimir Radmanovic
You guys remember that time last week when I traded for Rashard Lewis? Yeah, that was sweet. Anyhow, this is a great time for Radmanovic to get a little more involved in the offense and see some more court time. This is probably a short-term injury, though, and shouldn’t warrant any roster moves.

Everybody Do The Bender!

In 1997, the Toronto Raptors drafted a 6-7 high schooler with the 9th pick in the draft. Then, with the 5th pick in the 1999 draft, the Raptors took another high-school swingman, this time a 6-11 big man with ball handling skills. Well, one out of two ain’t bad. While Tracy McGrady has turned into a true superstar, Jonathan Bender has been a major disappointment. While the 5 players drafted immediately after him (Wally Szczerbiak, Rip Hamilton, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion, and Jason Terry) have all become quality player, Bender has lagged behind, often injured, and never establishing himself in the NBA.

Well now with Ron Artest out for the year, Bender is coming off the IL and has yet another chance to be at least some sort of factor for the team. He turns 24 at the end of the month so he still has some time to develop, but sooner or later he’s going to have to come out of his shell. He’s definitely one to watch over the coming weeks, because any 6-11 player that shoots from outside and blocks shots has the potential for plenty of fantasy value. Don’t rush out and grab him, but be aware of the kind of minutes he’s getting as the depth chart shuffle continues in Indiana.

The injury bug is making its way around the league. As we approach the halfway point of the season, many top names are starting to find themselves a little banged up. Those currently ailing include Kobe Bryant (Lamar Odom owners should be thrilled with this), Rashard Lewis, Zach Randolph, Chris Webber, Dwyane Wade, Mike Bibby and Jason Richardson. You can never know for sure who will be going down and when that will happen, but by simply looking at a player’s past you can get a good feel. It should have come as no surprise to anyone when Baron Davis was injured for over a month earlier in the season. On the other hand, Andrei Kirilenko and Richard Jefferson had been perfect pictures of good health throughout their NBA careers. So there’s certainly plenty of luck that comes into play, but at the same time certain players are more likely to stay healhtier than others, and these would be the players you might want to think of acquiring from here on out. What I’ve done is taken the top 50 or so players by ESPN’s averages and assigned them a durability rating of 1 to 5, 5 being the most durable, 1 being the least. Next to each player’s name is the number of total games they’ve missed due to injury (as best I could tell) in the 2002-2003, 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 seasons.

5: Most Durable

As if you needed another reason to love the Big Ticket. Yao seems to be a perennial disappointment, but owners can’t complain about his health. Stephon Marbury is always out there. LeBron looks to try and emulate MJ’s indestructability (hopefully he can avoid the 2nd year injury). Steve Francis seems to be completely over his migraine problems from a few years ago. Gasol and Boozer are young players that have a knack for avoiding serious injuries.

4: Pretty Durable

Ilgauskas has a history, but he’s missed only two games in the last three years. It’s time to give him the benefit of the doubt. Rashard Lewis doesn’t miss many games, but he played banged up quite a bit last year. J-Rich’s injury doesn’t seem to be getting better, but before this he rarely missed time. Arenas missed a lot of time last year, but it was when he kept trying to return early from the same injury. He looks healthy. Elton Brand has had some bad luck, but they’ve both been isolated incidents, not recurring problems.

3: There’s Some Risk

Crawford probably deserves to be a 4, but it’d be nice to see him out on the court first. Tracy is banged up and doesn’t have a reputation for playing through injuries. Wade is spectacular, but seems to always be ailing. Shaq has been good so far, but if the Heat keep up their pace, look for him to get some time off. The last four names on this list are all young guys who haven’t been able to avoid injuries. Hughes and Q-Rich have had no problems this year, but be careful.

2: Dangerous

‘Reef had always been a good bet to stay healthy, but he’s missing the next month. With last night’s injury, this is two years in a row with a serious injury for Kobe. That never happened to MJ. I hope AK47 can stay healthy when he comes back, but knee issues don’t go away easily. AI’s injury history is well-documented.

1: Playing With Fire

No need to comment on these guys. You know what the deal is.