Let me steal a tactic from my FBB cohort and give you two stat lines:

20 year old rookie #1 (per 48-minute averages): 17.5 points, 10.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.8 steals, 3.6 blocks, 52.4%

20 year old rookie #2 (per 48-minute averages): 19.6 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 2.6 steals, 3.5 blocks, 45%

The first player is Atlanta’s new human highlight reel, a Sportscenter anchor’s best friend, and my favorite free agent pickup of the year, none other than Josh Smith. The second player? That’s the 2001-2002 campaign from Andrei Kirilenko. You can see that there are definite similarities, although I admit I didn’t include 3-pointers (Kirilenko hit about 0.6 per 48 in his rookie season, while Smith hasn’t hit one yet this year) and FT% (AK47 has always been around 75-80%, while Smith is hovering in the mid-60s). Still, fantasy players have every reason to be very, very excited about Josh Smith’s arrival on the scene.

Even if you wanted to draft him before the season, first you had to figure out who he was. He wasn’t one of the top high school names (those would be Howard, Livingston and Telfair). He was one of five Hawks draft choices; he was one of two Hawks draft choices with the last name Smith; he was taken one pick before another high schooler also with the last name Smith, and whose first name also started with the letter J. Pretty confusing. Put that together with the fact that the Hawks were an absolute mess, high schoolers rarely contribute in their first year, and one of the two legit NBAers on the Hawks played Smith’s best position, and he had no reason to be anything more than a forgotten man.

But that’s obviously all changed now. He was most likely snatched up in your league after his jaw-dropping 10-block performance on Dec. 18 against the Mavericks. I was lucky enough to grab him the night before, as he had strung together a few decent games since being inserted in the starting lineup, with 9 blocks in those 5 games, and Earl Watson had run out of use by that point. I wasn’t expecting too much from the rookie, but it never hurts to get some potential blocks.

Still, his play of late has been nothing short of revelatory, at least in fantasy circles. In his 14 games as a starter his “main” numbers are nothing special at all: 9.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists. That’s basically Etan Thomas last year, plus an assist. But this is key to understand: forget about those three categories. Ok, maybe that’s a little rash. But (assuming you are in a cumulative, and not head-to-head, league) look your standings. Most teams should be around 5,000 points, 2,000 rebounds and 1,100 assists. But 300 blocks probably has you in first place. It’s simple, really. And that’s why unless I get a legit top-50 player in return, Smith won’t be leaving my roster.

Look at the 15 Day Player Rater. There’s Smith at #33 – and remember, this doesn’t include that 10-block outburst. As long as he keeps shooting only when he’s flying above the rim, it doesn’t matter that he’s only flirting with double figures. Sticking with the 15 Day Rater, his FG% value is 2.55 and his PTS value is –1.38, for a total of 1.17 in those two categories. In that same span Ray Allen has an impressive 1.78 value in PTS, good enough for 15th best in the league. But his FG% value is –1.38 for a net value of 0.4, considerably less than Smith in those two categories. Chris Webber has 1.09 in PTS, good for 20th best, but is at –1.21 in FG%. Nothing too revelatory here, just showing how the numbers work.

So enjoy Josh Smith. Some people might think it’s a good time to sell high, and it’s certainly possible he’ll hit a rookie wall within the next month or two. But over the past month, he’s been a more valuable player than Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Ben Wallace, Sam Cassell, Emeka Okafor, Rasheed Wallace, Antoine Walker, Grant Hill, Zach Randolph, Joe Johnson and a host of others. Embrace FG%, steals and blocks. Embrace Josh Smith.

In the few weeks since our last Top 20, we’ve seen one elite player return from injury, (Baron Davis) and one looks like he’s about ready to lace ‘em up again (Andrei Kirilenko). So let’s see where they fall into the mix. Plus, this time we’ve added tiers.

Tier One:

1. Kevin Garnett, F (MIN) – His hold on the top spot may be slipping, but through no fault of his own. The Big Ticket is still the undisputed fantasy champion. He’s posting career-high numbers in boards and assists this year.

2. LeBron James, G/F (CLE) – He just turned 20, and he could very well average 25/7/7 this year. The biggest surprise so far is his .493 FG%, and he helps in every single category.

3. Shawn Marion, F (PHO) – Garnett is the only other player in the league averaging over 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks. Marion is a 20/10 threat every night, and does everything but get assists.

4. Dirk Nowitzki, F/C (DAL) – He’s slowing a bit from his torrid November pace (2.1 fewer rebounds), but Dirk is still a top-5 talent.

5. Tracy McGrady, SG (HOU) – He’s on fire so far this month, averaging 30 points, 3.3 3’s, 7.5 boards and 6 assists. After a slow start, Tracy is starting to return to form in Houston, and should be fine from here on out.

6. Kobe Bryant, SG (LAL) – He’s shooting 40.7% from the field, but his 44% shooting over the last 5 games (in which the Lakers went 3-2 against some great teams) is encouraging. Other than that, Kobe is a stud, plus your fantasy team isn’t affected by off-the-court drama. Yet.

7. Tim Duncan, F/C (SAS) – If he goes top 5 in your draft next year, it’ll be on hype alone. He’s no longer dominant in points (21.9 this year, 15th in the league, decreasing for the 4th year in a row), and while he’s a huge plus in boards and blocks, he’s a huge minus in FT%, and doesn’t help at all in assists or 3’s. Dirk is unquestionably the better fantasy center.

Tier Two:

8. Jermaine O’Neal, FC (IND) – Really, there’s not much difference between Jermaine and Duncan, but the lack of blocks lately (1.6 per game since his return) pushes him into the second tier.

9. Andrei Kirilenko, F (UTH) – He’s almost back. Have patience. The best defensive player in the league, he’s like Ben Wallace but with scoring ability and range on his jumper.

10. Allen Iverson, G (PHI) – Over the last month, he’s averaging 33.3 points, 6.9 assists and 5.3 boards with 2.4 steals and 1.7 3’s. The only reason he slips is because those injuries have gotta catch up with him sooner or later. If Philly falls out of the playoff hunt, he may sit out more often.

11. Ray Allen, SG (SEA) – He’s consistent, he helps you almost everywhere, but he just doesn’t have what it takes to move into the top 10. Better rebounds and assists (about 4 of each) would help that.

12. Baron Davis, PG (NO) – The best and worst fantasy player on the planet. His percentages will murder you. Everything else is spectacular. He is the ultimate roller coaster ride, and he could very easily be #7, or #17.

Tier Three:

13. Amare Stoudamire, F/C, (PHO) – His 26 points, 8.6 boards and 1.7 blocks are all well and good, but it’s the 58% shooting from the field that gets him into the top 15.

14. Shaquille O’Neal, C (MIA) – Don’t look now, but Shaq is getting pumped for the second half of the year. In January he’s averaging 27.3 points, 11.2 boards, 3.5 blocks, and hitting 2/3 of his shots from the field. Oh, and under half his shots from the stripe. Injuries are still a concern, though.

15. Paul Pierce, G/F (BOS) – His numbers are down across the board this year, though not much. He’s a fine second round pick but not someone you can build your team around.

16. Rashard Lewis, SF (SEA) – Quietly playing nearly as well as teammate Ray Allen, if he managed better than his pitiful 1 assist per game, he may be in the top 15.

17. Peja Stojakovic, SF (SAC) – His points, boards, steals, 3’s, assists, and FG% are down from last year. As long as Chris Webber is healthy, Peja just isn’t the same. He flirted with being a first-rounder in this year’s draft, but not anymore.

18. Larry Hughes, SG (WAS) – If there weren’t about 50 other shooting guards just a tad under Larry’s ability, he’d be higher up. But he leads the league in steals, and has terrific all around numbers. It is a contract year, though, so who knows what he’ll be like next year.

19. Stephon Marbury, PG (NYK) – 20 points, 8.8 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.5 3’s … ho-hum. He’s just a solid point guard. Every year, you know what to expect.

20. Dwyane Wade, G (MIA) – His game has really turned on with the arrival of Shaq, but the lack of 3’s from the PG position pushes him down a bit.

“Him not being here is going to be tough for me. I don’t know what I’m going to wake up for.'’
- Steve Francis, on the trade of backcourt mate Cuttino Mabley to the Sacramento Kings.

Poor Stevie Franchise. Just when things were starting to turn around for him, his best pal gets shipped across the country in return for that guy with the crazy wife. Remember, this is a guy who refused to play for the team that originally drafted him (the then-Vancouver Grizzlies), and then whined his way out of Houston and a chance to play with Yao Ming. Francis doesn’t seem to be as concerned with winning a championship as he is with being happy, which I guess is a valid outlook on life. However, he definitely allows himself to be a little down emotionally, and that can effect his game. Last year, Francis was certainly unhappy in Houston, and it took a huge toll on his stats, as he posted career-low numbers in points, 3’s, offensive rebounds, and FG%.

All I’m saying is this, Magic owners: You’ve got a lot of money invested in this kid. If he’s not happy, he won’t be playing at the top of his game. For you Francis owners out there, it isn’t time to reach for the panic button just yet, but he only played 27 minutes last night, dished only 2 assists and grabbed only 3 rebounds. Magic coach Johnny Davis seems to be playing good cop to GM John Weisbrod’s bad cop, feeling sympathy for his star guard. But Francis has to pull himself out of his funk soon, and his owners have every reason to be a little worried that this could take some time.

Meanwhile, how about the guys that actually got traded? Doug Christie shouldn’t see his stats change all that much. Just like in Sacramento, he’s playing with a shooting point guard, and will be probably the 4th option on the court. The big issue for Christie is that the big men for the Magic (Dwight Howard, Kelvin Cato, etc.) aren’t nearly the kind of passers that he was used to playing with in Sacramento, where Chris Webber and Brad Miller could find him open on the outside a couple times a game. However, his scoring is already way down this year (just 7.3 ppg), and he isn’t shooting the three nearly as much as he used to. He is marginal-at-best roster filler as it is, and this move might send him to the waiver wire.

As for Cuttino Mobley, this is actually a pretty nice position for him to be in. He had a tough time getting acclimated to Orlando, posting 6-year lows in boards, steals, and assists while dealing with various injuries. The one area he’s really improved in this year is his 3-point shooting, where he’s knocking down a stellar 46% of his bombs and racking up 2.5 3’s a game. A new setting may be just what he needs. A fast-tempo team like the Kings, where he can get out on the floor and run, get the ball in good spots, and have the ball in his hands more than before, should be great for him. Plus, with Bobby Jackson out for the year, he’ll have plenty of time on the court. Look for him to improve those assists and rebound numbers, and return to the form you were hoping for when you drafted him this year.

Just as things were starting to look up in New Jersey, word comes down that Richard Jefferson will soon have wrist surgery and will be done for the season. This is incredibly surprising news, and if not quite devastating to fantasy teams, it certainly will be tough to overcome. We knew Jefferson had been battling a variety of ailments recently, but there was never any sense that he could be lost for the season. After all, this is a guy who missed a total of five games in his first three NBA seasons, making him one of the most durable players in the league. His 35% shooting in five January games made it clear that there was something wrong, and we have to assume that he knows what he’s doing. I’m sure the fact that he signed that fat extension before the season made it a little easier to call it a day.

This is terrible news for the Nets, as now they are down to Kidd, Carter and, um, that dude with the red hair. We recently went over the Nets, and outside of their big three, it wasn’t pretty. And now it’s down to a big two, and it’s a pretty fragile two. There’s no point in recapping the health issues with Kidd and Carter; they’re well known. What’s not known is whether this injury to RJ will convince Kidd that New Jersey isn’t a place he wants to be too much longer. Even in the incredibly weak East – where the Nets have the conference’s third-worst record yet are still only three games back of the final playoff spot – it’s hard to see the team getting into the playoffs with just Kidd and Carter. Unless, that is, they get some big contributions from some players currently on the roster. Let’s take a look and see if that’s likely, or even possible.

Rodney Buford seems most likely to take Jefferson’s place in the starting lineup. Before we get too far, everything obviously depends on how Lawrence Frank splits the minutes. If Buford’s not seeing somewhere near, oh, 33 mpg, then there’s no reason to even consider him. That said, in six games as a starter this season, in which he’s seen 31.8 mpg, Buford has put up the following numbers: 11.2 points, 3.7 boards, 2 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.8 3s, 39.5 FG%. Those are not pretty numbers right there. Buford is a SG/SF that has never really shown an ability to hit 3-pointers, but he does have five games where he’s hit at least two this year, including a night where he hit four against Indiana. Assuming that he does indeed get the starting job for a while, this is what will determine whether or not he has any value. 13/4/2 with a steal doesn’t really have much value, but if he can somehow hit 1.5 3pg, then he’s on the fringe. Still, Jefferson owners looking to replace his numbers are extremely unlikely to do so with Buford.

One person who could see a significant bump in value is foul-prone center Nenad Krstic. The big man has skills and the confidence of Jason Kidd, but he’s getting no love from the NBA refs. Save a game against the Knicks on New Year’s Day where he managed to play 42 minutes and pick up only one foul, Krstic has racked up an amazing 35 fouls in his last 7 contests. Sometimes he can spread these fouls out, and it’s no problem; in three of those games he was able to play 40 minutes. But when he picks them up early, he’s a non-factor; three other games saw him play under 20 minutes. Vince Carter is obviously the #1 scoring option in Jersey now, and you could say that Kidd is #2, but everyone knows that Kidd’s better off when he’s setting the table. There’s a real chance Krstic could emerge as a top threat for the Nets, and he’s worth grabbing if he’s still out there. Even if he has trouble breaking double digits in points, he’s proven a capable shot blocker. For someone who played a total of 58 minutes in the first month of the season, Krstic looks very comfortable (when he’s not fouling, of course). Keep an eye on him, and be ready to pounce.

If you have an IL spot to play with, you might want to consider stashing Ron Mercer there. But don’t get your hopes up too much. Those stat lines from his first five seasons are looking mighty nice to RJ owners right now, but that was a long time ago, at least in basketball terms. Mercer’s knees are just about shot, and he’s not got no real chance of playing enough minutes to help teams out if/when he comes back. He played 35.3 mpg to start the season, but he did that for all of three games before he couldn’t do it anymore. Combine that with the facts that he has 60 career 3-pointers, and never averaged more than 4 rebounds or assists even when he was getting 40 mpg, and he’s not someone who is capable of providing serious help.

What about Jason Kidd and Vince Carter? I wouldn’t expect too much to change with their numbers. Carter was already averaging 40 mpg with the Nets, so it’s not like he can be on the court much more. Will he increase his 21.6 ppg to closer to 25? Probably? Will that mean his 46% shooting so far with the Nets will creep back towards the 42% he shot last year? Probably. Call it a hunch, but Carter might be tempted to start launching more 3-pointers. The Nets will be in need of points, and Carter’s never been shy; remember, this is a guy who attempted more than 5 per game back in 2000 and 2001. If his FG% drops but he sees his 3pg go from 1.1 to 2.1, that’s something his owners can live with.

As for Kidd, he might look to up his scoring more, but losing one of his best outlets for assists will hurt there. Kidd has been attacking the boards with a vengeance lately (9 per game in his last seven), and he’ll need to keep doing that to make up for RJ’s loss. Who knows how his knee will hold up, but he did manage a season-high 41 minutes on Saturday and it resulted in his first triple-double. Owners of both of these guys can be cautiously optimistic that they’ll see a slight-numbers increase, but due to their fragile natures, having to play near 40 mpg might not be the best long-term situation for them.

I know it’s not always right to assume, but I’m going to do that for a second and take a guess that most people reading this are east coast dwellers. I base that on nothing, but I’ll say it anyway. And as I’ve said before us east coasters sometimes have a habit of ignoring what goes on out west. I guess it’s that East Coast bias thing that the Daily Quickie guy likes to talk about all the time, or maybe not. But the fact is, in my league, a middling player on an Eastern Conference team is more likely to be picked up than a middling player on a Western Conference team. So sometimes we like to check in on the teams that play their ball out west to see if they have anything to offer us.

The Blazers are certainly the hot topic in fantasy basketball these days. With two rotation regulars on the IL, another starter banged up, and a point guard situation that’s up in the air, fantasy players should be keeping a close eye on the situation. Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Darius Miles are out of action for at least a few weeks each, obviously. Theo Ratliff is back in action, though, at least technically. The 2 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist and 0 blocks he put up on Sunday don’t prove anything. It’s hard to read too much into two games, but let’s take a look at how the Blazers minutes have been split in the two contests since both ‘Reef and Darius went down.

Minutes per Game
Ruben Patterson: 41
Zack Randolph: 38
Nick Van Exel: 29
Theo Ratliff: 28
Derek Anderson: 26
Damon Stoudamire: 21.5
Sebastian Telfair: 19
Travis Outlaw: 18.5
Joel Przybilla: 11

What’s interesting here is that with two regulars out, there’s only one player that’s seeing a clear benefit, that being this week’s obvious #1 pickup, Ruben Patterson. We told you to grab him on Friday (we weren’t the only ones, we know) and he responded with two-game averages of 23.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.5 steals on an otherworldly 69% shooting. Mo Cheeks wasn’t kidding when he said he was his favorite player, as now that there’s no one to block him, except him to keep getting near 40 mpg. He should obviously be starting in all leagues. That said, get ready for some ’Toine-like numbers from the free throw line. He’s a career 66% shooter, but is at 58% this year, hasn’t been above 63% since 2001, and went 7-for-16 in his last two.

For Zack Randolph owners that are puzzled that he saw less PT than Ruben, don’t worry. He played only 32 minutes against the Heat, but that’s because he was in foul trouble all game and ultimately fouled out with just over 4 minutes to go. The 44 minutes he saw against the Knicks on Sunday should be more like it. Still, it’s hard to see Randolph’s numbers getting too much of a bump. He was already the team’s #1 option, and now defenses will be keyed on him even more. Randolph has never really been one to completely take over a game, so don’t expect too much more than his usual 20/10.

The one player I’d keep an eye on is Theo Ratliff, and I’m not just saying that because he’s on my team and I’m trying to talk him up in an attempt to trade him. Seriously, I’m not. The prevailing notion earlier this year was that Ratliff was more effective on the defensive end with Miles in the lineup instead of Abdur-Rahim, because Miles was more of a true SF. There were six games from Dec. 15 to Dec. 27 where Abdur-Rahim was out and Miles started in the frontcourt. In those six games, Ratliff blocked a total of 16 shots. That was Ratliff’s best six-game stretch in terms of blocks since the first six games of the season. After missing nearly three games due to a shoulder injury, Ratliff has done next to nothing in his three games back, blocking only four shots and scoring 20 points to go with his 10 rebounds. That’d be a very nice game, but won’t cut it for three. Still, Patterson, like Miles, is more of a natural SF, and if Ratliff can work out his health issues, he could be in for a whole bunch of blocks over the next few weeks, even if he doesn’t see much more than 30 mpg. If you need blocks and are feeling lucky, get him in your lineup and hope for the best.

Sunburned.

The non-game of the week(end), Phoenix vs. Indiana, was pretty much over after 5 minutes. The Suns broke out to a 15-3 lead and never looked back. What it did do, however, was give us a chance to look at some of the Suns second-stringers, who got a decent amount of court-time in the second half. Remember, when a team is scoring almost 110 points a night, just being on the court should get you a decent amount of open looks and fast-break buckets. So if ever a non-Nash starter goes down with an injury (if they lose Nash, all bets are off), their replacement could have some pretty significant value. So let’s have a look at who got more minutes that usual Sunday night, and how they did.

Maciej Lampe, F
19 mins, 4-7 FG, 1-1 3pt, 1-2 FT, 10 pts, 5 rbs, 1 blk, 4 fouls.
Previously best known for sitting in the waiting room at the NBA draft until the second round, this 6-11 sweet-shooting forward has shown some flashes during his short career. While he’s going through typical youngster troubles with turnovers (4.6 per 48 mins) and fouls (8.1 per 48 mins), Lampe looks to be a nice spot-shooter, and could really find a niche on this team should Shawn Marion get hurt. Down the road he could definitely be a great player, but for now even with minutes he probably wouldn’t be more than 12-7 with a 3. Also he’s from Poland, but you shouldn’t make any jokes about that.

Casey Jacobsen, G/F
27 mins, 3-6 FG, 1-4 3pt, 2-2 FT, 9 pts, 2 rbs, 1 ast.
Jacobsen is good for one thing and one thing only – 3-pointers. This year, 58% of his shots have come from beyond the arc, and he’s hit one in 9 straight games. That said, he’s already getting 18 mpg, and he shouldn’t be much more than a role player at any point in his career.

Steven Hunter, F/C
15 mins, 5-5 FG, 10 pts, 5 rbs, 4 blks.
Here’s an interesting guy. Despite being the 15th overall pick in 2001, he’s never seen more than 13 mpg in any of his 4 years in the league. His per-48-minute numbers this year (19.4 points, 10.1 boards, 4.9 blocks) are pretty nice, and he’s shooting an absurd 68% from the field. He could be a Brendan Haywood type, helping in blocks and maybe a little in boards.

Leandro Barbosa
12 mins, 2-3 FG, 2-2 3pt, 6 pts, 3 ast, 1 reb.
Things are not looking good for this onetime Fantasy Basketblog favorite. Coming out of Brazil, he showed promise of being a Rafer Alston type last year, posting nice numbers in 3’s and steals, and playing well after Stephon Marbury was traded. But now he’s seeing less time due to Steve Nash’s incredible play, and after missing 5 games with the chicken pox (don’t ask), Joe Johnson may have supplanted him as the backup PG. Barbosa might just need a fresh start.

Who’s Your Daddy?

So remember how last week we told you that James Posey would be your “best bet” among the Grizzlies’ 500 swingmen? Well, prove us wrong, Shane Battier, prove us wrong. And that’s exactly what Battier did this weekend, while Posey played only 20 minutes on Thursday and sat out with his ailing foot on Friday.

Battier had a monstrous weekend, getting 73 minutes over 2 games and putting together 31 points, 5 blocks, 2 steals, 13 boards, 5 assists, and 6 threes while shooting 65% from the field. Those are some great numbers. If Posey continues to miss time and Battier continues to get major minutes, he could be a nice all-around player for your team.

Ruben Sandwich

Pretty clever title, right? Anyhow, the real reason I’m writing about Ruben Patterson isn’t because I could go for a nice deli sandwich right now (though it couldn’t hurt), it’s more because the 2 guys taking minutes away from him, Darius Miles and Shareef Abdur-Rahim, are hurt. Miles is out for at least 2 weeks with a knee injury. Abdur-Rahim is playing, but may opt for surgery to remove “loose bodies” from his bothersome elbow, whatever that means. Either way, Patterson is in line for a nice uptick in minutes and the Blazers play twice this weekend, tonight at home against Miami and then on Sunday in New York to start off a 6-game, 10-day road swing. The grueling schedule could be enough to convince Abdur-Rahim to take some time off to rest his elbow.

So that clears the way for Patterson, who is one of coach Maurice Cheeks’ favorite players. Remember, Cheeks said that Patterson should be getting more playing time but that he had to play Miles and Shareef earlier in the year due to pressure from upper management. Patterson, if he gets minutes, can be a very valuable player. His steals alone make him worthy of a roster spot, as he grabs 3.18 steals per 48 minutes, good for 4th best in the league and 1st overall among forwards. Patterson is a career 50% shooter as well, and can put up double-digit points if given the minutes (he put up 18 points in 28 minutes on New Year’s Day). If you’ve got a spot on your bench, it might not be a bad idea to grab him before the weekend. If you’re a little more hamstrung by your roster, wait and see what happens this weekend with Abdur-Rahim.

Not-So-Golden Nuggets

It’s been about a week since Jeff Bzdelik (whose name had zero chance of making it through my spell-checker) was dumped by the Nuggets in favor of interim coach Michael Cooper, and things are still up in the thin air regarding who Cooper likes on the court. There have been some rumblings that due to a crowded big-man situation, the Nuggets might have a lineup of Marcus Camby, Nene, Kenyon Martin, Carmelo Anthony and Andre Miller on the floor at some points during upcoming games. Of course, that all depends on if Camby and Martin are able to stay healthy, which hasn’t seemed to be working out too well so far.
Regardless, it looks like Cooper is trying to figure out a way to get Nene on the floor more often. Due to the injuries to Camby and Martin, Nene has been on the floor over 35 mpg during each of the last 4 contests, and has averaged 17.8 points, 11.3 boards, 1.3 blocks and .8 steals while shooting 58% from the field. Talk about showing off for the new boss. Although they’re not winning any more games with Cooper on the bench so far (they’re 1-2 since the change, including a loss to the Clippers on Monday night), Nene has been a bright spot for them and could be a bright spot for your team as we head into the long haul.

Game Of The Week(end)

Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks, Sat. Jan 8th, 8pm EST.
When we last saw our hero Dirk Nowitzki, he was unquestionably the best center in fantasy basketball, assuming he qualifies at center in your league. Well, nothings changed, and just because we don’t mention him much doesn’t mean he’s not a top-3 pick in every draft. However, Dirk isn’t going to be getting all our attention in tonight’s game. Remember, the Mavs managed to realize Jason Terry is actually a pretty good basketball player, so it’ll be important to see if they continue to give him the minutes he needs to thrive on your roster.

On the other side of the ball, Jermaine O’Neal has wasted no time returning to form. Since having his suspension shortened, O’Neal has averaged 29.8 points, 10.3 boards, and 2 blocks per game. Obviously his 55-point effort the other night helped those numbers, but still. Also keep an eye on Jeff Foster, who has quickly become a fantasy basketblog favorite with his knack for double-doubles even with the return of O’Neal. He was likely undervalued earlier in the year because people thought he’d lose major minutes once O’Neal returned, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.

We’ve got every statistic we could possibly want at our fingertips, and thank the lord for that. We can get play-by-play updates of every game, as it happens, on the computer. We’ve got it all. But sometimes, it’s nice to be able to see things for yourself. There are some things the box scores don’t pick up that can help you out. So here are some observations from last night’s Wizards-Nets game.

Vince Carter looks good, but not great. There was a lot to like from his performance last night, sort of obvious considering he hit 15 of 23 shots en route to 31 points. He had back-to-back alley-oops from Jason Kidd, and didn’t always settle for jump shots, as he took the ball to the rim on a few occasions (as well he should, considering the sorry state of the Wizards interior game). But there’s still reason to be concerned. On one play during the second quarter, Carter hustled back on defense to try and block a layup attempt by Brendan Haywood. The two former Tar Heels went down, and Carter stayed down for a minute before getting up and staying the game. He was obviously fine, but Carter has a knack of taking falls and getting up slowly. And you just know that one of those times he won’t get up at all. He is definitely the Ken Griffey, Jr. of the NBA now – capable of performing at about 75-80% of his old self, but a risk to go down at any time.

Jason Kidd’s shot was back, at least for one night. In fact, it was much better than it usually is, as he was hitting jump shots left and right. He’s certainly not at full speed yet; he was still playing with very obvious caution. But you can tell he’s already starting to develop a serious rapport with Carter, and he should be back to being a top-5 PG within a couple of weeks. Would I rather have him or Baron Davis from here on out? Interesting question. Perhaps because I’ve been screwed so repeatedly by Baron, I’d be inclined to go with Kidd. The Nets will stay in the playoff hunt in the East, so Kidd will have no reason to shut it down. A 15-game winning streak would get the Hornets up to next-to-last in the West, so he’s got much more reason to shut it down if (when) his next injury occurs.

Richard Jefferson was basically invisible last night. This is what RJ owners feared would happen with Vince in town. Kidd and Carter were obviously the first options on offense, and even Nenad Krstic had more plays that called his number than RJ did. Let’s take a quick look at RJ’s numbers in the five games with Carter: 18.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, .6 steals, 1 block, 1 3, 33% FG. Not bad, but that 33% from the field is brutal, and is also surprising. Everyone knew that his usually excellent FG% would take a hit this year, especially at the beginning of the season without Kidd and K-Mart. He’s at 43% on the season, which is about right all things considered, although owners probably wish it was closer to 45%. He’s probably just in a slump now, and his FG% should get back to the mid-40s, but his days of averaging 23 ppg are very likely over.

The Nets have NOTHING besides those three guys. Well, next to nothing. In the first few minutes Nenad Krstic seemed to have it going, but he disappeared after that. On one hand it’s disappointing because the Wizards have no inside presence, so he should have been able to do some damage, but with both teams using smaller lineups, he was only on the court for 31 minutes, after seeing 40 or more in 3 of the last four games. For a 7-foot foreigner he’s not all that awkward. But hopefully you aren’t counting on him for more than bench upside at this point. Other than that, the Nets are a mess: Travis Best, Jacque Vaughn, Jason Collins, Jabari Smith and Rodney Buford. Yikes.

Larry Hughes is slowly creeping into Antoine Walker territory. Now they play different positions, so it’s not the best comparison, but they are guys that love to get in the box score as much as possible. We’ve pointed out on multiple occasions that Hughes is a free agent, and you can certainly tell, as he knows every steal he gets is worth another $1,000 or so. He gets plenty of assists, but he is almost always looking to score. The 12 for 22 was great last night, and his shot has been falling lately, getting his FG% up to 43.5%, but the 41% career shooter will end up around that number.

Jarvis Hayes had his shot working last night. I’m a Jarvis fan. The Wizards certainly have their Big 3 that will do the bulk of their scoring, but when it gets to the end of the game and a shot has to be made, I want Jarvis coming off a screen and taking that shot, as he is clearly the best jump shooter on this team. (Actually, it might be Anthony Peeler, but he rarely gets off the bench for some reason.) Jarvis will continue coming off the bench, and even if he got into the starting lineup he probably wouldn’t have much value, but if Hughes bolts in free agency after the season, Hayes could be a very key part of the Wizards offense next year.

Brendan Haywood is just not a good basketball player. It’s true. He tries hard, and he certainly has his moments. But nothing comes naturally to him, and this being his fourth year, I doubt it will get too much better. He had that nice November where he went for 10.7 and 8.2 with 2.4 blocks, but that went down to 9.2 and 6.6 with 1.8 blocks in December. He’s not a horrible guy to have on a team, as he can give you about 20-25 minutes of decent play, but he just doesn’t know enough to be that good.

Antawn Jamison is slumping, but he’ll pick it back up. In a Dec. 4 game against the Bulls, Jamison got elbowed in the face and had to receive a couple of stitches, and just 11 days later against the Heat he had a collision with Udonis Haslem that resulted in five more stitches. Nothing major, but enough to see him dip from 23.6 and 9.4 in November to 19.1 and 7.9 in November. His track record is proven, though, and he should settle in at about 22 and 9 from here on out.

On New Year’s Day, Eddy Curry scored 22 points against the Orlando Magic, his second-highest point total of the year. Then on Monday, Chris Bosh scored a season-high 25 points against the Magic, nearly doubling his season average, while teammate Morris Peterson lit up the Magic backcourt for a season-high 21 points. Now, we’re not going to claim that we saw these performances coming, but at the same time this wasn’t a total surprise. The Magic are currently giving up 101.7 points per game to their opponents, worst in the NBA. The odds are better for your players to have big games when their team is likely to top the century mark, and that’s just what happened to Curry, Bosh and Peterson.

Granted, this isn’t like football where you can start a player based on his matchup in one week. Taking a risk on a marginal player to have a big game against a poor defensive team will end up burning you more often than not. However, over the course of the season, the more that your players go up against the worst defenders in the league, the more chances they have for bigger games.

Right now, there are three teams in the league that are giving up over 100 points per game – the Magic, the Celtics and the Hawks. We took a look at the schedule to see who’s playing these teams the most over the rest of the season, and here they are:

Chicago Bulls – 10 games (2 vs. Magic, 4 each vs. Hawks and Celtics).
The Bulls are a great team to use this strategy on. With 10 games against the worst defenders in the league (nearly 1 in 5 of their remaining games), players like Curry, Kirk Hinrich, and Ben Gordon may have more value than you think. However, players like Tyson Chandler, a mostly defensive presence, probably won’t be used much in these games.

Detroit Pistons – 10 games (4 vs. Magic, 3 each vs. Hawks and Celtics).
Keep in mind, this strategy doesn’t work all the time. If the game turns into a blowout, the starters will spend most of the 4th quarter on the bench, so they may not live up to your expectations. This is likely the case with the defensive-minded Pistons, who will slow down the game to their level. Plus, you have to figure they will heat up at some point and when they do, blowouts against the worse teams become more likely.

New Jersey Nets – 9 games (1 vs. Hawks, 4 each vs. Magic and Celtics).
The Nets, well, at this point you just don’t know. This team has too many question marks with injuries and rotation questions to really get a feel for who’s going to be stepping up in these games. Vince Carter scored 31 last night but could be out for the year at any moment. Jason Kidd can be an All-Star, or trade bait. Richard Jefferson is a stud when he’s the #1 man out on the court, but last night he was a clear number 3 option. It’s just too tough to call right now.

Charlotte Bobcats – 9 games (3 each vs. Hawks, Celtics, and Magic).
If there is one player that through all this research has really caught my attention, it’s Emeka Okafor. Usually in these situations, it’s the young bigs (like Curry and Bosh from above) that have big games because if they get confident early, they’re hard to slow down. The backcourt is too jumbled to really know what to expect, but Okafor and possibly Primoz Brezec could be great candidates for midseason trades.

It’s now been a full month since Mike Fratello took over the reins in Memphis, and his 11-6 record means he must be doing something right (the team was 5-10 in November, leading Hubie Brown to resign). But as fantasy players, we’re not so much concerned with the Grizzlies’ record. We’re more concerned with how Fratello sets his lineup, and if he rids the team of the ridiculous everyone-gets-minutes-even-Dahntay-Jones strategy. So one month in, let’s take a position-by-position look at who’s been helped and who’s been hurt for the Grizz.

Point Guard – Despite missing the first 6 games of Fratello’s tenure, Jason Williams is still clearly the #1 PG on the team. He managed to average over 30 mpg in December and increased his numbers pretty much across the board compared to November, so he’s still the point guard you want to own on this team. Earl Watson filled in nicely while J-Will was out but has slid back into a reserve role now.

Shooting Guard/Small Forward – The swingmen for the Grizzlies are still in a state of flux. They basically have 4 players – James Posey, Shane Battier, Bonzi Wells, and Mike Miller – who can play either position and can do so for 35 minutes a night and be effective for your team. However, the reality of the situation is that Fratello still hasn’t settled on his favorites. Look at the minutes each player has gotten over the last 5 games:

Miller – 42, 24, 25, 19, 29 (5 starts)
Wells – (inj), 24, 18, 33, 19 (0 starts)
Posey – 44, 30, 37, 24, 33 (4 starts)
Battier – 39, 31, 21, 37, 30 (3 starts)

Looking at those numbers, it seems like Posey would be your best bet, but in those 5 games, he averaged just 9 points. Wells has been very effective and Miller has been, well, Miller. 3’s, some boards, and that’s about it. If it was us, we’d start Wells and Posey, give them each 30-35 minutes and use Miller and Battier for 15-20 minutes a game. Alas … it’s not us. So it’s hard to tell where this is headed.

Power Forward – Here’s where the real change has been. Pau Gasol has gotten 5 more minutes per game in the Fratello era, bringing his average up to 36 per game. He was the West’s Player of the Week this past week, and he’s getting his blocks up to a respectable level (1.6 per game in December).

Center – Well apparently Hubie Brown isn’t the only coach who doesn’t want to play Stromile Swift 30 minutes a game. Why, I have no idea, but Lorenzen Wright is still the “starter” here, which makes both him and Swift borderline fantasy players. Even when Wright missed time with an injury, Gasol moved to center (which could send his value skyrocketing if he eventually qualifies at center), and Swift saw limited minutes. Fantasy Basketblog is getting very impatient waiting for Swift to finally get the minutes he deserves.

Ca-barkin’ Up The Right Tree

In the “who sent who to the what now?” category, the Suns sent reserve forward Zarko Cabarkapa to the Golden State Warriors for pretty much nothing (2 conditional second round draft picks). Not a bad pickup for the Warriors. Up until now, Cabarkapa was best known for being unceremoniously shoved to the ground by Danny Fortson and breaking his wrist on the fall. Now, he’s got a chance to get 15-20 minutes a game and show off his shooting, which is supposed to be very strong. Keep an eye on how he fits into the rotation, as he could affect the value of Mike Dunleavy and the red-hot Troy Murphy.