Archive for January, 2005
The Temporary Point Guard Strategy

Now that we can put football in the rearview (nobody actually cares about football once fantasy is done, right?), we can concentrate on the only fantasy game in town. Assuming you aren’t in some ECHL fantasy league, that is. But let’s take a small bit of strategy from football before we kick it to the curb for eight months. In fantasy football, any time a running back becomes a starter, he automatically becomes a hot pick up. It doesn’t matter if it’s some guy who started the season as the fourth-stringer, if he has the ball in his hands, and is the unquestioned #1 guy, there is a good chance of something good happening. We can transfer this bit of strategy to fantasy basketball and point guards. While we often harp on the fact that anyone who sees serious time on the court can have at least a little fantasy value, this is especially true for point guards. Good things happen when the ball is in your hands. And point guards are usually in control of the ball more than anyone else.

This is why when a situation like the one Rick Brunson finds himself in right now pops up, you have to act quickly and decisively. By now you missed your chance to pick up Brunson, and if you haven’t, you play in a league that you should have no problem winning. The second I saw that Marko Jaric’s foot injury proved to be a stress fracture, I picked Brunson up. Why? Well, first off, if you remember last month when we looked at little-known players who put up impressive per-48 minute stats, Brunson was heavily featured, near the top at assists and steals. Combine this with the fact that the Clippers have absolutely no one else on the roster capable of playing more than a handful of minutes at the point, and you’ve got a great situation. Over the past three games Brunson has averaged an astounding 40 minutes per game. I don’t care who you are, it is impossible to consistently play 40 minutes a game and not have value. Over those three games Brunson’s averages look like this: 15 points, 6.3 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 steal, 1.7 3s, 47% from the field, 83% from the line. That’s basically Kirk Hinrich right there. Well, Kirk Hinrich has about as much chance at shooting 47% as Patricia Arquette has at winning an Emmy for her new psychic crime solver drama, but you get the point. The Clippers may sign some lifelong scrub (sort of like Brunson) to take a bit of the load off, but for the next month, he should be seeing at least 35 minutes per game, leaving him with plenty of value.

This sort of situation happens more than you might expect, and for owners that can stay on top of things it’s one of the best ways to keep your team sharp. When Derek Fisher went down a few weeks ago leaving Speedy Claxton as the only real point guard on the roster, he should have been scooped up immediately. In the seven games where Fisher was out, Claxton’s averages were as follows: 17.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 7 assists, 2.7 steals, .7 3s, 46% from the field, 82% from the line; very much in line with Brunson’s numbers above. When Jason Williams was out for six games last month Earl Watson did the following: 12.2 points, 2.7 rebounds, 7.7 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.2 3s. Remember, these aren’t perennial all-stars. We’re talking about Rick Brunson, Speedy Claxton and Earl Watson – one late-first rounder, one second rounder and one guy who didn’t even get drafted. But because of the opportunity and position they play, they found themselves, as fantasy stars.

When Jaric went down right around the time Fisher came back, it was time to dump Claxton for Brunson. (Jason Richardson’s injury seems to be leaving Claxton with value since Fisher can step in at the 2, but let’s not worry about that for now.) In a month or so when Jaric comes back, find the next similar situation, and don’t be afraid to act quickly. It’s very possible to piece together a whole season of 3rd or 4th-round quality point guard play just by keeping on top of team’s PG situations and acting quickly and decisively. So do it.

Weekend Review

Ah, a New Year. Filled with new hopes for your fantasy team, new players breaking out, and new injuries to worry about. Is there anything sweeter? No.

Stud-amire

We’ll admit, it’s taken us quite a while to get to talking about Amare Stoudamire, but after exploding for 50 points on Sunday against the Blazers, we can wait no longer. No one has benefited from the arrival of Canadian-in-disguise Steve Nash more than Amare. He’s scoring 26.4 ppg, good for 4th in the league, and he’s shooting an absolutely absurd 59.1% from the field. Only one other player – Shaquille O’Neal – is shooting better than 55% from the floor and scoring over 12 ppg. While his other big-man numbers – 8.6 rebounds and 1.7 blocks – are admittedly low for a top-flight fantasy center, Amare is undoubtedly a late-first or early-second round pick next year.

Net Gain

So far so good, eh Vince Carter? Air Canada’s taken flight in New Jersey, and seems to have found a nice niche as a 2nd scorer behind Richard Jefferson and a potent weapon for Jason Kidd. Carter has been rejuvenated in his new home, averaging more steals (2.0) and rebounds (6.0) than ever before in his career. Of course, he’s only played 4 games, but nonetheless his numbers have been very promising.

Still, one thing that jumps out at you has to be his 41 minutes per game, also a career-high. Given Carter’s history, you may want to try and unload him to someone hoping for this kind of production over the course of the year. He’s an injury waiting to happen, and playing so many minutes only increases the risk. Coach Lawrence Frank might realize that he needs to cut down on Carter’s PT, but until he does, Carter’s owners will be taking a deep breath before reading any Nets box scores.

While things might be going well for Carter, the Net’s other injury-plagued veteran all-star has been struggling to get into his offensive groove. Over his last 5 games, Jason Kidd has averaged only 5 ppg, despite playing nearly 35 minutes a night. While his rebound numbers have been better than ever, and his assists have been strong if not Kidd-esque, the lack of points (and 3’s) have been extremely frustrating for Kidd owners. However, if you’ve held on to him this long, you can’t afford to trade him. Just hope that Jason finds his shot relatively soon.

Pointers

One thing we saw this weekend was a couple of point guards at varying degrees of fantasy effectiveness, each playing better/more than they were earlier in the year. Let’s recap:

Rick Brunson, LAC –Undoubtedly one of the hottest pickups in fantasy basketball, Brunson has taken over the keys for the Clippers thanks to injuries to Marko Jaric and Shaun “Dr.” Livingston. In 5 games as starter, Brunson has averaged 11 points, 8 assists, 1.7 3’s and 1.2 steals. He will be a very effective fantasy point guard while he’s starting, and should be starting in almost every league.

Tony Allen, BOS – Though this rookie is not really a point guard, after Gary Payton left the court Sunday with a sore hamstring, Allen went out and put up a season-best 18 points on 8 of 11 shooting. Allen will not give you much in the way of assists, but in the 5 games in which he’s gotten over 20 minutes, he’s averaged 14.4 points, 5.4 boards, 1.2 steals and shot 55% from the field. If Payton is going to miss much time (it’s still up in the air), and you need a temporary scorer, Allen might be the guy you’re looking for.

Jason Terry, DAL – Don’t look now, but there are signs of life from the Dallas point guards, particularly Terry. After lighting up his old team the Hawks for 23 points last week, he went out and dished 24 assists in his last 2 games. He’s only had two “complete” games this year where he scored double-digits and got more than 5 assists, but nonetheless you’ve got to get him on your radar screen just in case Don Nelson keeps starting him.