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As the Point Guard Turns

Ah, the frustrations of fantasy basketball. Two players who I’ve been begging to get more playing time finally get put into situations where they are going to see that time … and I miss out on both of them. Bah. Lots and lots of post-deadline PG situations to look at today, so let’s get to it. With most fantasy trading deadlines fast approaching, this could be the last real chance to improve your team for the stretch run.

The Celtics situation is far from resolved. After Gary Payton was shipped to Atlanta, Delonte West – who played a total of 120 minutes in the NBA prior to the trade – stepped directly into the starting lineup the past two games and in 37 mpg put up 17.5/5.0/2.5 with 2.5 3s, 1.5 steals and 1 block on 64% shooting. Wow. The assists are low, which isn’t surprising, and he should be looked at as more of a SG than a PG. But the 3s and steals are very welcome, and he’s obviously a hot pickup. That said, Payton could be back in the fold very shortly. The Celtics will probably welcome him back if he wants to come back, but you have to wonder, should they? In their two games without him, with their new lineup featuring the rejuvenated Antoine Walker and West, they’ve won tough road games at Utah and (an admittedly Steve Nash-less) Phoenix. It could be that this lineup of fresh legs is the way to go. Grab, West, hold on to Payton, but if The Glove comes back, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them both have middling value at best. In his first game with C-Webb, Allen Iverson racked up 14 assists. The guy’s just having a phenomenal year. If the 76ers can get past the Celtics for the Atlantic Division crown, it will be hard to deny him the MVP. Jason Kidd is #7 on the 30-Day Rater. He’ll be one of the more interesting draft choices next year. He’s obviously still worthy of a first-round pick, but how many people will be scared by his knee? A quiet week for Rafer Alston, both production-wise and blowup-wise. I’m sure his owners will take it, though. Only 29.7 mpg in his last three isn’t reason for concern, but it’s a slightly interesting trend to watch. If you can buy low on Stephon Marbury right now, I’d do it. The Knicks only have three guards on their active roster and one of those is the always-fragile Penny Hardaway. Expect Steph to see close to 40 mpg from here on out and to put up big numbers.

The Pistons are clicking on all cylinders. Wait, I didn’t even mean for it to come out that way. Even if Shaq is completely healthy come conference finals time, the Pistons are looking like the team to beat in the East. Chauncey Billups continues his strong play and Carlos Arroyo is thriving in his backup role. The Pistons will have one of the best PG duos in the league over the next three years should they hold onto both of them. I suppose that technically Jeff McInnis is the PG in Cleveland, even though I talk about LeBron here all the time. But I mean, there’s no news to report and it sure is a lot more fun to talk about LBJ than Jeff McInnis. Random LeBron thought of the day: I have one of these. I was thinking it’d be going for more. Oh well. It was bittersweet seeing Kirk Hinrich lay it on my beloved Wiz on Friday night. Check out his mpg in the last six – 42.8. Expect this to continue as the Bulls push not only for a playoff spot, but first round home-court advantage. He’s still not getting as many assists as you’d like, but he’s going to be a stud from here on out. As for Chris Duhon, well he’s seen 29.8 mpg in his last four, including three games of 30+. He’s hitting open 3s, getting assists and a few steals. That said, he’s #119 on the 15-Day Rater. Still, if you have PG games to make up, he’s not a bad option. I do other things besides obsess fantasy basketball. In fact, I’m in a band. (We both are, actually.) One thing I always have problems with is writing lyrics. Always drawing a blank. Maybe I’ll write a song about how much I hate Jamaal Tinsley. The chorus could go, “Day-to-day, why don’t you just go away?” Does that sound like a hit to you? Hmm, oh well. In any case, Tinsley is on the short list for most frustrating player in the league this year. Great numbers when he’s out there, but he’s absolutely killing his owners right now by being on the bench (not the IL), at a time in the season where most owners are cycling through all of their players in order to use their games in hand. It’s really starting to look like he won’t be a contributor the rest of the year. (Yes, I’m trying reverse psychology. Yes, I realize that actually saying that means it won’t work.) Anthony Johnson is still not an option – he needs to play basically a perfect game just to be an average fantasy contributor. We’re past the point of saying Mo Williams should be picked up. The question is who are his comparables as far as value for the rest of the season. BV pointed out his numbers earlier today, and they are tasty. Here’s his deal: plenty of assists, very few 3s, average steals and scoring. Think normal Andre Miller for a good comp. If you need assists more than 3s, he’s your man.

The Damon Jones binge continues. I like him better than Quentin Richardson for 3s from here on out. Gilbert Arenas got in one last monster game before Larry Hughes returns, going for 43/7/3 with 7 3s and 2 steals. Watching him and Mike Bibby duel was really a treat. There was also a Steve Blake sighting, which I couldn’t let pass. In 34 minutes he went for 17/5/5 with 2 3s and a steal. It’s all about opportunity, people. There’s just not that much separating Blake from Dan Dickau. Remember when the Magic were one of the year’s better stories? When they finish 37-45, four games out of the playoffs, those memories will be even more distant than they are now. Still, at least they’re getting Jameer Nelson in there. I was clamoring for it, and in his first two starts he was good for 13.5/8.0/6.5 with 1 steal on 50% shooting. Now there’s some talk that he creates bad defensive matchups and that his spot in the starting lineup isn’t completely secure. Eh. I’d still take my chances. I maintain he’ll be a Jamaal Tinsley type, although it looks like he’ll be more valuable on the boards and he might not his as many 3s as of yet (it took Tinsley a few years). Hopefully he won’t inspire me to write hateful songs about him. Oh right, I didn’t get him, so he won’t. As for how this affects Steve Francis … he’s still the same incredibly overrated player he’s always been. And now he’ll have fewer assists. Brevin Knight has seen 30+ in two straight. You know what you’re getting. He’s like a rich man’s Rick Brunson. Or something like that. Tyronn Lue alert! In his four games since returning from injury, he’s received 36 minutes, and put up 15.3/2.8/7.0 with 0.5 steals and 1.0 3s. Solid, but a few things to notice: The assists are a bit high, expect him to be closer to 5. The 3s and steals are about right. He should be closer to 1.5 3s, but he’s never been a top thief. He’s seeing plenty of PT now, and should for the near future. But I’ll echo the rest in thinking that those 13 year-old kids at the end of the Hawks bench might start taking his time as we get closer to April.

There’s an emerging trend in San Antonio, and that’s of Tony Parker being the secondary scoring option behind Tim Duncan. He averaged 20.4 ppg in February compared to Manu Ginobili’s 16.5. Man is that PG situation in Dallas frustrating. After scoring 18 points in three games, Jason Terry goes off for 27 on Saturday. Don Nelson needs to keep him in the lineup, although it should be said that in Terry’s two best games in February, the Mavs lost both times. That probably doesn’t mean much. You have to stick with him and hope that maybe Brad Miller lays another one into Devin Harris, and Darrell Armstrong too, while he’s at it. Although that would certainly upset this guy. It’s just wrong, I tell you. Who’s the one who’s been yapping endlessly about Mike James all year? Me. Who snagged him the moment he got traded to Houston. BV. That stands for Bastard Verymuch. Hmm, I could have probably done better. Oh well. So out of all of the newly valuable PGs, it should come as no shock that I like James the best. Bob Sura’s on the IL, Rod Strickland was given the boot, Andre Barrett’s on the IL … yeah, Moochie Norris and his hair are around, but this is James’s show, and that was very evident as they put him in the starting lineup in his first game and he was good for 19/2/3 with 3 steals and 3 3s in 34 minutes. This is an especially good game, but he will be solid. Don’t expect tons of assists, but the 3 and steals will be there. Until Sura gets back, he’s got every chance to be as good as, say, Chucky Atkins. Remember, Atkins is the 62nd best player in the league this year, fantasy-wise. That’s good. Ho-hum in Memphis. Jason Williams is the man, but you’ll have to deal with games like Saturday when Earl Watson is the better player and J-Will gets only 23 minutes. I like Mike James more as long as Sura’s out, unless you really need assists. We got our first look at post-trade deadline New Orleans and it wasn’t pretty at all. That’s a very Hubie-esque looking box score, with 10 guys seeing at least 14 minutes and no one logging more than 35. Dan Dickau stepped up with 22 points, 3 assists and 3 3s, but if you can sell high right now, you might want to try. He’s playing for a contract, so you know he’ll look to put up numbers, but his PT is in the hands of Byron Scott. As for Speedy Claxton, he might be able to salvage some value, but if they keep sharing time like that in the Big Easy, it will be tough for anyone to really distinguish themselves.

We’re approaching 2,000 words. Sports Guy would be proud. My employer wouldn’t be. Luke Ridnour is on the verge of uselessness. I guess you can throw out yesterday’s game because it was a blowout early on, but that’s still one decent game out of his last four. He’s lucky Antonio Daniels has hit a rough patch as well. It’s unlikely Ridnour will be removed from the starting lineup all season, but he’s no Mike James. Sam Cassell has been every bit as frustrating as Jamaal Tinsley this year. Even more so. Sammy owners, I feel for ya. He’s slowly working his way to the point where he can re-enter the starting lineup. With Latrell Sprewell looking like he might have finally turned it around (someone should fine me for saying that), if Sammy can come back the Wolves can make that push to get swept by the Spurs in the first round. Continue to be patient. But then again, what else can you do? You think Andre Miller was glad to see Earl Boykins banished to the bench. Maybe it’s a mental thing. Boykins still saw almost 30 mpg off the bench, just slightly below what he was getting as a starter, but it still made all the difference in the world for Miller. Hopefully George Karl makes this a permanent change. It’s best for everyone; even Boykins might hold his value. But probably not. He won’t make it to the line 16 times every game. Yesterday was the first time Damon Stoudamire was held to single digits since Jan. 2. He’s been over 20 only once in the past five games. Is his run over, or should you buy low? The minutes are still there, so I’m buying (relatively) low. Keith McLeod should be a top point guard option from here on out. Ha, just making sure you’re still paying attention this far in. You should be, I mean, is your job really any more exciting? Well, it’s gotta be more exciting than the Jazz PG situation, at least.

Leandro Barbosa got plenty of PT with Steve Nash out (36.3 mpg), but didn’t light it up, all things considered: 15.3/4.7/3.7 with 1.7 steals and 1 3. Very solid, but on the Suns it’s easy to have high expectations. Since Nash is likely to miss a couple more games as we wind down, he’s a good guy to have around for single game fill-ins. I always say how much I love Mike Bibby. No, not that like that. Not entirely like that, at least. He’s always been better in real life than fantasy, but this is the year that’s changed, and with Chris Webber taking his Monistat 7 to Philly, Bibby will be a total stud the rest of this year and next year and the year after, etc. He’s #13 on the Rater, #4 in the last 30 Days and just might be a late-first rounder next year. Maybe. Chucky Atkins will be up and down with Kobe Bryant back, but his 3s will keep him valuable. Rick Brunson is fine for those of you who need assists, but he just doesn’t shoot/score. He was getting a lot more 3s last time he saw lots of PT. Not this time. Poor man’s Brevin Knight, right? And finally, the Warriors. Good to see Baron Davis out there. Hard to see him coming off the bench too much longer, and the Warriors probably want to keep his minutes down so as not to risk an injury in a meaningless season (insert Warriors meaningless season joke here), but he might want to show his new home crowd that he’s still got it. Derek Fisher owners should get ready for the letdown. After averaging 43 mpg in his last four, he was back down to 33 last night. Still put up an awesome 19/4/2 with 3 steals and 3 3s, once his minutes slip into the 20s, his time will be up. That said, it’s not like he isn’t signed for another 5 years, so the Warriors might as well keep running him out there because like it or not, he’s a part of their future.

Weekend Review

Trade Fallout

Chris Webber, Antoine Walker, Baron Davis, and all the other trade pieces made their debuts this weekend, while other teams featured moderately changed lineups as a result of certain players being traded away. How did everyone do?

Chris Webber – He only had one game this weekend, but it was a deliciously ironic matchup against his old squad, the Kings. His game was surprisingly lackluster – he stuck to the outside most of the time on offense, settling for a lot of jumpers, which explained his 7-20 shooting performance. His 11 boards were nice, but as expected he didn’t handle the ball as much with AI on the floor – he had only 1 assist, down from his average of 5.5. However, the fact that he took 20 shots – right in line with his season average – was a good sign.

Antoine Walker – Walker has come out of the gates swinging in Boston. He led the team in scoring in both of their games this weekend, averaging 28.5 points to go along with 11.5 boards and 4 assists. Of course, with ‘Toine, those numbers come at a price. He also averaged 4 turnovers, and the fifty (yes, fifty) shots he took over the weekend were nearly double anyone else’s on the team (Paul Pierce took 27 shots over the same 2 games). Also worrying was the fact that he only hit one 3 all weekend, but that should change. If you’re not concerned with percentages, Walker will be a great player over the rest of the season.

Baron Davis – He came off the bench yesterday to huge applause in Oakland, and played his first significant minutes in over a month. The rust showed, as he only hit 3 of 11 shots, but he dished out 8 assists in his 29 minutes. He’ll be worked back slowly, according to head coach Mike Montgomery, particularly due to the 12-day, 8-game road trip the team is facing. Temper your expectations for Baron, and just hope that there are no setbacks with his injuries.

The Atlanta Hawks – Things are still settling in Atlanta, but as predicted the Big Four are going to be Al Harrington, Josh Childress, Tyronn Lue, and Josh Smith. Not exactly Murderer’s Row, but you gotta work with what you got. The most interesting development over the weekend, though, was Predrag Drobnjak, who averaged 30 minutes, 17 points, 4 boards and a 3 on 55% shooting. Those of you who are thin at center should jump on him while you have the chance.

The New York Knicks – As the saying goes, one man’s trash is another man’s … well … trash. And no one loves trash more than Isiah Thomas does. New Knicks Malik Rose and Maurice Taylor combined for 14 minutes and 4 points on Saturday against the Pacers, and shouldn’t have any more value now than they did before (i.e. none).

The Milwaukee Bucks – Minus Keith Van Horn and Mike James, the Bucks are turning into fantasy heaven for a number of owners. Now, Mo Williams is a startable option each and every night – this weekend he averaged 14.5/8.5 with 2 steals. Desmod Mason actually contributed in something other than scoring last night, grabbing 11 rebounds, a season high. And don’t look now, but former #1 overall pick Joe Smith put up 18/11.5 this weekend, with admittedly little else.

Weekend Preview

The surprising thing is, with all this movement in the NBA this week, there really aren’t too many guys who are obviously going to gain a lot of value. Sure, Mo Williams is now a quality PG in Milwaukee, and Baron Davis might decide that he wants to play in Golden State, but there’s no big-time winners or losers this year – yet. Now that all the movement is done (at least for a bit), it’s time for teams to settle into their stretch-run rotations – starting with this weekend. What teams, positions and players are we going to keep a close watch on? These ones:

The Atlanta Hawks – As my FBB cohort mentioned yesterday, somebody – anybody – is going to have to step up for the Hawks for the last 30 games. Antoine Walker took the most shots on the team, was their leading rebounder, and contributed 3.7 assists per game. Basically, he had the ball in his hands a whole lot. But now? They’ve gotten rid of him, picked up Gary Payton (who will never play) Michael Stewart (ditto) and Tom Gugliotta, who might play but you’ll never know it. So who’s going to make up those 20 points and 9 boards?

Look for Al Harrington to play the pre-Kidd Richard Jefferson role for the rest of the year. He’s the only guy who you can count on night in and night out to play 35-40 minutes and put up at least 15 points. Harrington, in fact, should bring his scoring over 20 ppg, pick up some more rebounds, and even see his assists numbers improve. Josh Childress should also maintain numbers like he’s had over the past 5 games – 13.8/8.8 with 1.4 steals, certainly a valuable player to have. Josh Smith will continue to be blocks machine and contribute a little in points and boards. But be sure of this: over the next couple months, Tyronne Lue will be a serviceable, if not spectacular, point guard. If you’re desperate for assists, keep an eye on him this weekend, tonight at Portland and Sunday in LA against the Clippers.

The Milwaukee Bucks – Now, there aren’t many people talking about this, but here’s something that I just don’t understand. The Bucks are 22-30. They are in last place in the Central division, 4.5 games out of a playoff spot, and have no real prospects that are going to get better down the line. So what do they do? They trade away a couple of their main-rotation guys, in order to clear up cap space so they can re-sign their top player, and keep this team in tact. Excuse me? Why, exactly, are they so desperate to keep this team together?

Whatever. I’m not here to play GM, I’m here to play fantasy GM. Now that the Bucks have moved Keith Van Horn and Mike James (who combined for 50 minutes and 21 points a game) for pretty much nothing, someone is going to get a chance to step up. As you already know, Mo Williams is one of those guys. But if I had to pick one other guy to really pick up some value, it would be FBB favorite Marcus Fizer, who I continue to believe would be a quality NBA player if just given the minutes. Also in line for a bump in value are Joe Smith and Toni Kukoc, but not a huge bump. I could be wrong, though, so watch the Bucks closely at home this weekend against Toronto tonight, and Seattle on Sunday.

Game of the Week(end)
Sacramento at Philadelphia, Saturday, 7:30 PM.
Duh. Like we were gonna pick any other game! Obviously, all eyes will be on Matt Barnes, as he goes up against his old team for the first time. Also Chris Webber, I guess. But really, the game is going to be filled with drama, and it will be interesting to see how quickly AI and Webber start to gel. We already know how the Kings will play without Webber, but the battle between Kenny Thomas and Darius Songaila should be a developing story.

I Slept In, Anything Interesting Happen in the NBA Today?

General managers of the NBA, I applaud you. That was quite an action-packed trade deadline. Let’s not waste time. Here’s one person’s thoughts on the fantasy ramifications of today’s moves.

Baron Davis to the Warriors for Speedy Claxton and Dale Davis
This is what Baron owners (hello, me!) were hoping for. He gets out of a rebuilding situation in New Orleans that he didn’t want to be a part of, and that his coach apparently didn’t want him to be a part of. Now he gets a fresh starts, returns to his home state, and gets to play with good friend Jason Richardson. Of course, this doesn’t answer his health questions. He remains a huge injury risk for the rest of this year and really his career. But assuming he can stay healthy, a move to Golden State does wonders for his value. He should slight right into the starting PG slot and should be able to put up numbers in line with his career numbers. It still remains to be seen if the Warriors will continue to employ their small ball lineup, so keep an eye on Derek Fisher. Even with Troy Murphy back (although not starting), Fisher saw a team-high 44 minutes, and responded with another fine game. It would seem he’s playing too well to take him out of the lineup right now.

Meanwhile, the situation in New Orleans is a bit dicey. Speedy Claxton is a very useful player, but the thinking in dealing Davis was that the Hornets would be able to hand over the reigns to Dan Dickau to see if he could actually be a legit starting PG in the league. You’d have to think that Dickau will remain a starter, but the Hornets aren’t going to just let Claxton rot on the bench. (That will be Dale Davis’s job.) He should still see some time, but it’s unlikely he’ll be as effective as he was the last few weeks with the Warriors. I might hold on to him for the time being just to see how things shake out, but it doesn’t look like the best situation for him. It does mean that J.R. Smith should continue see consistent PT.

Antoine Walker to the Celtics for Gary Payton, Tom Gugliotta and Michael Stewart
Oh, Danny Ainge, you never fail to amuse us. A few hours after giving away Jiri Welsch, the player who he considered a major part of the deal to send Antoine to Dallas, he brings back Toine at the expense of his only NBA-proven point guard. And this is from a first place team! Whatever. Antoine will still be well worth using, although it will be interesting to see how he adjusts back to Boston. Expect him to do a lot of the ball-handling duties, and expect him to start firing up lots of 3s again. He averaged at least 7 attempts per game during his last three seasons in Boston, and while that was under the trigger-happy coaching style of Jim O’Brien, I’m still expecting a slight uptick from his current 5.1 attempts per game.

Gary Payton to Atlanta could get ugly. Only yesterday GP was discussing an extension with the Celts. Now he’s off to the wasteland of Atlanta. Assuming he reports, his numbers shouldn’t be affected too much. He would obviously start ahead of Tyronn Lue. It does put a damper on the Hawks recent small ball approach. Walker was the starting center in their last game, but now he’s gone. You’d have to think that either Obinna Ekezie, Jason Collier or Predrag Drobnjak would be inserted into the starting lineup now, to give them some size. But they won’t make up for Walker’s production, and even Payton at full speed won’t do that. This means Al Harrington is now the #1 offensive threat. He’s had two impressive games since his return from injury, and should be a fine option from here on out. It should also mean increased opportunities for Josh Smith and Josh Childress. Definitely keep an eye on the Hawks. Remember how the irrelevant Bob Sura and Chris Crawford became temporary studs at the end of last year after they cleaned house. Someone will have to produce.

Keith Van Horn to the Mavericks for Alan Henderson, Calvin Booth and cash
Not much to this one. KVH shouldn’t have any value on the Mavericks, as deep as they are. It’s starting to look like Dirk Nowitzki and Michael Finley are the only safe plays on that team. Josh Howard and Jason Terry should be, but they need to see more than 30 mpg, and with Jerry Stackhouse, Devin Harris, Darrell Armstrong, Marquis Daniels and now Van Horn around, that’s questionable.

Henderson and Booth are worthless to the Bucks, but even if they snag a few big man minutes, it could further muddle the always compelling Dan Gadzuric/Zaza Pachulia battle. Along with the Mike James deal, though, the Bucks have shipped out two members of their rotation without really receiving anyone of note in return. This should mean good things for Desmond Mason and Michael Redd, who didn’t go anywhere and is primed for a huge final third. Speaking of Mike James, not that I’d ever do such a thing…

Mike James and Zendon Hamilton to the Bucks for Reece Gaines
Well this clears up the Milwaukee PG situation. As every fantasy site on the Web has said, Mo Williams is a hot pickup right now. Certainly a better bet than Rick Brunson, if you need a comparison. He won’t get many 3s, but he should be an assists machine from here on out, and since he should see around 35mpg, the rest of his numbers will go up as well.

In Houston, it’s possible that James could slide into the starting lineup in place of the banged-up Bob Sura. He might be worth a pickup, but I’m not sold. Rod Strickland is around, and Jeff Van Gundy obviously likes him. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him stick in the starting lineup. This doesn’t mean he’ll play much more than 20 mpg, but that would certainly be enough to keep James from having value. Basically, I expect James to have a similar role as he did in Milwaukee, and to provide some nice offense off the bench along with Jon Barry.

Nazr Mohammed and Jamison Brewer to the Spurs for Malik Rose
I told you the Nazr Mohammed era was over. I would certainly say it’s safe to dump him right now. It’s hard to see him having any sort of role on a team that already has Tim Duncan and Rasho Nesterovic. He could be valuable to the Spurs off the bench, but not valuable to your team.

The same goes for Malik Rose. He always produces when given the chance, but it looks like Mike Sweetney will – or at least should – get that chance now. With Mohammed gone, Kurt Thomas – who survives yet another trading deadline – should become the starting center, and as has been said, he should be a fine option for the rest of the season. But back to Sweetney, don’t get too excited, since…

Maurice Taylor to the Knicks for Moochie Norris and Vin Baker
Today was a classic case of Danny Ainge and Isiah Thomas trying to out do each other. Even with Mohammed out of the picture, the Knicks still have a very crowded frontcourt with Kurt Thomas, Sweetney, Taylor, Rose, Jerome Williams, Tim Thomas and Trevor Ariza fighting for time at three spots. Kurt is really the only one who can play center, so that’s why I think he’s safe. It would be nice if the Knicks gave Sweetney a chance to establish himself, and even though there’s a good chance he will join the starting lineup, he might not see that much PT. Of those six non-Kurt Thomas players, he’d be the one I’d keep an eye on, although Tim Thomas has shown some flashes since being put back in the starting lineup. But then again Tim Thomas sucks. If I’m the Knicks I go with Ariza, Sweetney and K. Thomas, let them all play 35 minutes and see what happens.

C-Webb. C-Webb Run. C-Webb Jump.

What, you thought I was gonna talk about Kwame Brown’s triumphant return to the court? C’mon now. Obviously, the big story today (so far) is Chris Webber’s trade to the Philadelphia 76ers. What does this mean for C-Webb? How about the other Kings and Sixers? Here are the folks who are most affected by the trade:

Chris Webber, PF – I keep going back and forth on this one. First, the biggest negative is that his assists will likely suffer. I know he’s a great passer for a big man, but assists are a lot easier to rack up when you’re kicking out to Peja (44.3 FG%) and Bibby (46.6 FG%) than when you’re dishing to Willie Green (36.6%), Iverson (41.6%) and Korver (41.7%). But with him and AI the real focus of the offense (presumably), you’d have to think that he’d get more shots, and improve his points, right? Wrong. Believe it or not, in Sacramento, despite being surrounded by scorers, he still shot the ball 19.9 times a game this year, good for 6th in the league. Don’t look for that number to increase much.

Of course, one thing this doesn’t change for Webber is his knee problems. He’s still a major injury risk. He’s probably not too happy about this move, either, which doesn’t bode well for his last third or the year. All in all, I’d say a slight dip in assists, and maybe a slight dip in FG% are in the works. But a lot is going to depend on if Philly continues the AI-dominated offense. But we’ll get to that next.

Allen Iverson, G – While we haven’t talked about him much this year, AI has been absolutely incredible. No big blowups with anyone, a new position that he’s handled incredibly well, and playing his heart out for a meddling Atlantic division team, AI has been amazing this year. His points (29.6) are his highest since ‘01-02, his FG% (.416) is his best since ‘00-01, his assists (7.6) and FT% (.817) are his highest ever. Now, enter a creaky-kneed, temperamental PF who will take nearly 20 shots a game. A couple years ago, I’d say that this could be a disaster, but now that AI is showing some newfound maturity and a great attitude, I’m a little excited about the possibilities. Look for a slight uptick in assists, and maybe even FG% for AI.

The rest of the Sixers – You know that old joke: “This is an A-B conversation – you’re C.” Well, this is now an A-B basketball team, and the rest of the team is just C through, um, L, I guess. Sure other players on the squad will have some value – Korver will still get his fair share of 3’s, Andre Iguodala should maintain his steals numbers – but no one will really be gaining any value, at least immediately. The one possibility of someone gaining value would be if Coach Jim O’Brien decides that he likes the athletic defense of Samuel Dalembert complimenting Webber better than Marc Jackson. If Dalembert starts seeing over 30 mpg, he’ll gain a ton of value.

Peja Stojakovic – Get outta here, Webber! Peja might be the biggest beneficiary of this deal, if he can get himself healthy. His numbers have fallen pretty much across the board this year now that Webber’s back playing, but now he can again become a focal point on the offense. The injury is going to be a major question mark, however. In fact, we might even recommending selling high on Peja right now – somebody in your league is going to think he’ll return to last year’s numbers now, but considering all the games he’s missed already, combined with some true stinkers (9 pts vs. Dallas on 2/11, 6 vs. Portland on 1/18), I can’t see him returning to last year’s form.

Brad Miller, Mike Bibby, Cuttino Mobley – Until Peja returns, this is their show. All three should post very high numbers in points and assists. Once Peja does in fact return, they should be back to about normal, though. Miller stands to gain the most probably, as he’ll be counted on for pretty much all of the inside presence. Bibby and Mobley will be counted on to score a little more, and that should suit their owners fine. But there are no wild swings in value here.

On a strictly basketball level, I love this deal for the Sixers. They are taking a big risk with Webber’s contract, but they know their window is closing with AI. He’s only 29, but his body is breaking down all over with all the banging he gets. Should Shaq actually miss a lot of time, the East is totally wide open, which might not be the case for another 5 or 10 years as the Pacers, Heat, Pistons, Wizards, Bulls and others are only getting stronger.

For the Kings, though, watch out. This is the beginning of the end. Petrie knew he wasn’t going win any championships with a team that peaked 2 or 3 years ago, so they’re going to start over. This was the first piece to fall. Peja will be gone after his contract expires, and they’ll be left with a core of Bibby, Mobley and Miller. They could do worse, but they won’t be a top-flight team again for awhile.

Small is the New Big

The Suns were the trendsetters. The Warriors followed suit. And now it looks like the Hawks are the latest. (You could even argue that by playing P.J. Brown at center when Jamaal Magloire went out, the Hornets were the second team to do it.) Yes, we soon might have a small ball craze sweeping the NBA, and I for one, couldn’t be happier. Who needs lumbering 7 footers clogging up the lane and doing nothing for fantasy owners? There are very few teams that offer five legit fantasy starters, but if this small ball craze takes hold, we might see more of it. All five Suns are obviously starters and they are all studs. If the lowly Warriors go with a Speedy Claxton/Derek Fisher/Jason Richardson/Mike Dunleavy/Troy Murphy lineup when Troy gets back, all five of them could be well worth using. And even the Hawks, who make the Warriors look like … well, last year’s Warriors … might have close to give fantasy relevant players if they stay small. Antoine Walker and Al Harrington were obviously usable to begin with, and you know my feelings on dunking/blocking machine Josh Smith. But if small ball means Josh Childress keeps getting PT and gets a chance to work on his well-rounded (at least for fantasy purposes) game, all the better. So who are some other teams that might benefit from going small ball?

Dallas Mavericks
It wouldn’t have made sense a week ago, but now that Erick Dampier’s out, do the Mavs really want to run Alan Henderson out there? Don’t they just want to try and put up 120 points a game and see if their opponents can match them? It’s too bad that Jerry Stackhouse and Marquis Daniels are both banged up right now, because it would have been very tempting to give the idea a go with their full squad. Even so, a lineup of Devin Harris/Jason Terry/Michael Finley/Josh Howard/Dirk Nowitzki would score a whole lot of points. If Shawn Marion (6’7”, 228) can play the 4, why not Howard (6’7”, 210)?

New York Knicks
The Nazr Mohammed era is over. It was fun while it lasted (wasn’t it?), but, just like Mark Blount realized he was Mark Blount this year, Nazr realized he was Nazr. The Knicks have little reason to keep running him out there as long as he’s ineffective an injured. I’d love to see them go with a Stephon Marbury/Jamal Crawford/Trevor Ariza/Mike Sweetney/Kurt Thomas lineup, which isn’t really that bad in terms of size, as that frontline goes 6’8”, 6’8”, 6’9”. Tim Thomas, Penny Hardaway and Jerome Williams could work well in this scheme as reserves. What do the Knicks have to lose by doing this? They’re already as low as they’re going to get in the standings, why not try and do something fun?

Milwaukee Bucks
Both Dan Gadzuric and Zaza Pachulia have shown flashes, but both are terribly inconsistent. Toni Kukoc may be old, but he’s shown lately that he can still play if given the chance. How about running out a lineup of Mo Williams (although you know who I’d have in there)/Michael Redd/Desmond Mason/Keith Van Horn/Toni Kukoc? In Williams and Kukoc you have two great passers, in Redd and Van Horn you have two great shooters, and Mason is the athlete of the bunch. That’s a team that could score some points, and could bring Mike James off the bench along with some muscle (relatively speaking) in the form of Joe Smith and Gadzuric.

San Antonio Spurs
These are Rasho Nesterovic’s January numbers: 4.5/7.7/0.6 with 1.7 blocks, 43% shooting in 24.8 minutes. That’s ugly. Sure, the rebounds and blocks aren’t bad, but otherwise Rasho’s making Mark Blount look like … last year’s Mark Blount. Brent Barry is a deceptively tall 6’7”, while Manu Ginobili is no slouch himself at 6’6”. Fantasy players who know what Barry can offer would love to see a situation where he’s out there with Manu and Tony Parker. If they played those three with Tim Duncan and Bruce Bowen it would be an especially small lineup, with Duncan the only one over 6’7”. And it’s unlikely that the NBA’s best team will tinker with what has been working so well so far. But fantasy players can always hope.

Back In Action!

Ok, you can finally exhale. The NBA is back after the long, long All-Star weekend, and now we can go back to the box scores. Oh, box scores, how we’ve missed you!

Showcase Showdown

If you’ve been on Mars for the past decade, in a cave with your eyes shut, and your fingers in your ears, you might be surprised to know that the trade deadline is approaching. As such, all of a sudden players are coming out of the woodwork to be showcased to other teams, while others are sitting out with ‘injuries’ when really they just are avoiding getting hurt.

So it’s no surprise that some of the hottest names on the trading block were in the headlines this morning. Michael Redd’s 39 points on 24 shots (he averages 22.6 on 18.5 shots) was the most obvious showcasing of the night. We also saw Donyell Marshall get 29 minutes – he’s averaging 29 this month as opposed to just 19 in January. And Toronto was also busy showing of Jalen Rose – his 30 points tied for the second-most he’d scored all year.

Leading the questionable injuries category would have to be Peja Stojakovic, who sat out with a strained hammy, which he certainly didn’t get from playing in the All-Star game. Y’know, cuz he wasn’t invited.
What’s important right now is to not read too much into any of this. Redd may explode again tonight, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to score 30 points a night from here on out – the Bucks are simply trying to increase his trade value. Stojakovic may miss another game, but don’t look for it to be a lingering issue like his back. He’ll likely sit out against Dallas, but he should be back after the deadline passes.

Small Ball

In the past, building an NBA team was like following a blueprint. Find the 4 best players you can, and then stick a lumbering, slow, unathletic, uncoordinated 7-foot oaf in the middle of them. Now, however, there are two teams who have decided (now that they’re a combined 25-80) to forego the whole ‘center’ idea, and instead go with simply their 5 best players.

In Golden State, this has worked very well. After going 1-14 in January, the Warriors are now 3-6 in February. Now that’s showing improvement! But really, they had a very impressive win against the Sonics last week, and played Phoenix and Dallas pretty close. The trick has been letting guards Derek Fisher, Jason Richardson and Speedy Claxton play side-by-side while Troy Murphy has been out with injury. Now the Murphy is set to return, look for him to play some center, and allow Fisher, J-Rich and Claxton to continue to coexist on the floor. While they may not all see the 35-40 mpg they’re enjoying right now, they should each keep above 30 mpg and maintain their value.

In Atlanta, the Hawks are also playing small ball, as their 7-man rotation consisted of Josh Smith, Antoine Walker, Al Harrington, Josh Childress, Tyronne Lue, Tony Delk, and Boris Diaw. The result was some nice performances from Walker, Harrington, and Smith, while Lue had an OK game as well. Should this trend continue, Lue, Childress, and Delk could all have moderate fantasy value. Of course, we can’t mention the Hawks without making a major plug for FBB all-time Hall of Famer Obinna Ekezie, who, one of these years, is gonna be awesome. We promise.

Timeshare

Sometimes, you gotta play small ball. But for the Charlotte Bobcats, they have the exact opposite problem. Marvin Ely’s emergence during Emeka Okafor’s injury has forced the Bobcats to give major minutes to Ely, while continuing to give time to Okafor and Primoz Brezec. Last night all three got between 29 and 32 minutes, and each scored at least 12 points, grabbed at least 6 boards, and had a block. It will be interesting to see if each of them can maintain their value over the next few weeks.

Big Questions

While all eyes right now are on the NBA trading deadline – at least they would be if the deadline was a tangible object – many players have their fantasy league trading deadlines coming up in the next few weeks. Last month saw a ton of players slipping on and off the “hot” and “not” lists, making it very difficult to gauge certain players’ value over the next few months. That’s why we’re here! Let’s take a look at some of the players with the biggest question marks hanging over their heads, and see what we can expect from them over the rest of the season:

Gilbert Arenas, PG – Gilbert was perhaps the best fantasy player in the league over the last month, averaging 28.8/4.6/6.5 with 2.9 3’s and 2.8 steals. However, with Larry Hughes returning to the Washington lineup, Gil will undoubtedly cool off at least a little bit as the Wiz prepare for the playoffs. However, don’t expect his stats to fall too much. This last month, Arenas has established himself as the leader of this team, and with Hughes an unrestricted FA after the season, Arenas will continue to contribute in the hustle categories as he tries to set an example for the rest of the young squad. Look for his steals numbers to stay high, with a slight drop-off in points and assists as the ball won’t be in his hands as much.

Vince Carter, GF – We talked a little bit about Vince last week, but that was before he played through an injury, something that I’m not sure he’s ever done before in his life. And he did pretty well, too, getting 21/6/5 with 2 steals on a bum ankle. Right now, though, the real question will be what the Nets do at the trading deadline. Should they move Jason Kidd and continue their “rebuilding” efforts, they might have a sulking Vince on their hands, and as we know from Toronto, that absolutely kills his value. Then again, if they hold on to Kidd, look for Vince to continue his tear. Odds are that they won’t make any deadline deals, so if you can get Carter at a slight discount right now, by all means, go for it.

Kevin Garnett, F – For the first time possibly in his career, there are some serious doubts about KG. Playing on a bum knee the Flip Saunders says should have him sidelined, Garnett’s stats have been suffering. February has been his worst month so far for points (19), boards (11.9), assists (4.7), and steals (1.1). While those are terrific numbers for any player, they are nonetheless a step down from KG’s norm. Plus, at some point he might have to sit out for a while to rest his knee. Dispite a huge game against the Cavs before the break, if you can find someone to give you #1 overall value for KG right now, I think you have to take it.

Baron Davis, PG – Here’s one name that I haven’t seen mentioned much in the trade rumor department, but you’d have to imagine that he’s “unhappy” in N.O. In fact, this article pretty much says just that. It’s clear that neither Coach Byron Scott or any of Davis’ teammates are too thrilled with him, and his owners have to be feeling the same way. You can probably get Davis for a song right now, and if you’re just barely out of contention and you’re willing to take that risk, trading for Davis might be a good place to go.

All of the Milwaukee Bucks – One of the names that keeps getting thrown around the rumor mill is Michael Redd. As we’ve learned in previous seasons, whenever a team trades away it’s leading scorer – particularly when they get “cap room” or “young players” in return – his remaining teammates take a bump in value. While Keith Van Horn is the obvious benefactor in this situation, he may be dealt along with Redd due to his contract situation. Desmond Mason, however, could top 20 ppg as the number one option on this team, and making a preemptive deal for Mason at this point may not be such a bad idea. Joe Smith, Mike James, and Dan Gadzuric could also see bumps in scoring.

All of the Portland Trail Blazers – Well, it’s a weekday, so that must mean we should talk a bit about the Blazers. I’m not going to pretend like I know what’s going to happen with this team over the next few days, but almost all of their players should be had at a bit of a discount because of the uncertainty facing them. Again, if you’re looking to take a risk, this is a good place to start.

As the Point Guard Turns

Not too much to cover with the short week, but here’s the rundown nonetheless.

The entire Atlantic division is pretty ho-hum when it comes to point guards. You know what to expect from Gary Payton, Allen Iverson, Jason Kidd, Rafer Alston and Stephon Marbury. I can’t see Kidd getting traded this week, but that’s just me. Both him and Iverson are injury concerns the rest of the way, but with their teams fighting for playoff spots, expect them to tough it out.

The Pistons are really clicking right now, having won each of their past four games by at least 18 points. That’s why Chauncey Billups PT is slightly down. He’s hit 15 3s in those four games and is really on fire. He’s above Ray Allen on the Player Rater. The only people higher than LeBron in assists on the Rater are Steve Nash and Marbury. Damn. It was good to see Kirk Hinrich participate in the Rookie/Soph game. The fact that he played far outweighs the fact that he missed all of his shots. He always misses all of his shots. He should be good to go for the stretch run, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him average 40 mpg. I’d still avoid Chris Duhon, just like I’d avoid most other players getting 25 mpg. Will Jamaal Tinsley be back tomorrow night? Who the hell knows? He’s definitely at the point of “believe it when I see it.” It would be nice to think he’ll be back to his productive self for the final 31 games, but there’s just not much to support it. That said, I’d avoid selling low. The Milwaukee situation looks like it won’t change this year. If you grabbed Mike James during his hot stretch, it’s probably safe to let go now.

Damon Jones owners sure hope the all-star break didn’t cool him down. You have to think that his being snubbed for the 3-point contest helped contribute to the 23 3s he put in during the team’s last four games. Keep an eye on Gilbert Arenas once Larry Hughes comes back. It was when Hughes went down that Gilbert really turned things on, so it will be interesting to see how Hughes’s return affects his numbers. I would expect a slight hit, but he’s still a top-15 player. Steve Francis finds himself at #17 on the Player Rater now, but at #23 when taking it by averages. He’s clearly not a first-rounder anymore. Jason Hart got the start, but Brevin Knight got the minutes and the production on Wednesday. It looks like he’s fine and will probably be back starting and worth using. Keep Hart on speed dial, though. The Hawks will be a team to watch. Whoa, that looks weird in print. Just for fantasy purposes of course, although now that everyone – not just NBA Fastbreak regulars – know about Josh Smith, they probably have more buzz than in many years. J-Smooth was seeing some time at the point earlier this year, and since Josh Childress certainly doesn’t deserve to lose any PT with Al Harrington coming back, it will be interesting to see if the Hawks go back to that with Tyronn Lue still out. Nobody will be racking up too many assists, either way.

Tony Parker is at #47 on the Player Rater. It’s looking like he’ll be a top-4 round pick for many years. Just when we all thought Jason Terry was safe, Don Nelson strikes again. Terry saw just 24 and 25 minutes in the last two games, while Darrell Armstrong saw 23 and 20 and Devin Harris saw 31 and 18, just for good measure. Ugh. Stick with Terry and hope for the best. Might be a decent time to sell high on Bob Sura. It looks he’s past his injury problems, which is good for his trade value, and if you need the help in 3s and steals you might be able to get a PG that will help more in those categories. Jason Williams was healthy enough to play in the last game of the break, so he’s fine. Earl Watson still saw 30 minutes, but he has no value right now. Who the hell knows with Baron Davis? Same as Tinsley, we’ll believe it when we see it. It goes without saying that I’m stuck with both of these guys. It certainly doesn’t seem like the Hornets or Davis are in any rush for him to return. As long as he’s out, Dan Dickau is more than solid.

Luke Ridnour owners hated seeing him put up 2/2/3 in 24 minutes while Antonio Daniels went for 19/4/4 Wednesday. No more than 31 minutes for Ridnour in his last four. Prior to that he saw at least 33 minuets in 11 straight. Interesting. OK, so Troy Hudson’s got nothing. Sam Cassell and his hamstring better be back in there soon. I maintain he’ll be solid from here on out. Don’t ask me why I feel that way. Andre Miller is in a major, major funk right now, hitting rock bottom with a 2/1/1 in the last game before the break. He just doesn’t play as well with Earl Boykins in the lineup. Damon Stoudamire looks to be on his way to a second consecutive top 40 Player Rater finish. He might even sneak into the top 30. It’ll be interesting to see where he ends up this offseason and it what type of role. Supposedly Raul Lopez will be ready to go after the break. We’ll see. Keith McLeod should be back soon, too. We’ll see. I’d rather use Chris Duhon than any of the Jazz PGs.

Steve Nash and Gilbert Arenas are exactly tied on the Player Rater. I say Gilbert edges him out. But then again, Gilbert is my hero. Mike Bibby is just below AI and right above Steve Francis on the Rater. I say good things about him all the time and he deserves them. What’s with his 75% free throw shooting this year, though? He was at 82, 86 and 80 the last three years. Chucky Atkins has averaged 41 minutes in the two games since Kobe Bryant has been back. This is fantastic news for his owners, as he’s attempted 19 3s in those two games. Ah, Rick Brunson, back in effect. He’s surely been grabbed by now, and with good reason, as the Clippers have no one to even back him up. They’ll sign someone, and even if (when) it’s no one you’ve heard of, remember that when Darrick Martin came aboard earlier when Marko Jaric and Shaun Livingston were out, he took some time away from Brunson. Brunson will get plenty of assists, and you just have to hope he throws in some 3s and steals. The Warriors would be silly to take either Derek Fisher or Speedy Claxton out of the lineup when Troy Murphy returns. Silly, I tell you. Hopefully Mike Montgomery will do the right thing.

Weekend Preview (Not Really)

Well, it’s All-Star Weekend, which certainly can be exciting, but really it has no fantasy value whatsoever. I really tried to write this column a couple times with things like, “Look at the rookie challenge to see who’s gonna be great in the second half!” or, “will the winner of the 3-point shootout shoot more 3’s in the second half?” Stuff like that. But really, none of this matters too much. Actually, what matters the most is that guys who are dealing with minor injuries or the flu or something along those lines get a chance to rest up and get better. And the things that could most affect your fantasy team will not be happening on the court, but rather in the back rooms of the downtown Denver hotels, as GMs bargain and barter with each other, and potential deals could be made. We’re not going to pretend to be the experts in this category, either. Although I will take this chance to once again recommend that the Wizards and Pacers swap Kwame Brown and Ron Artest. Seriously. Anyhow, with nothing to preview, wha’ happened last night?

A Light Slate

Even last night didn’t provide us with too much fantasy-wise. There were, though, some interesting numbers in the box scores. For example:

Jason Terry playing only 24 minutes. After going 2-8 against Seattle on the 13th, Terry has gotten only 25 and 24 minutes the last 2 games, losing major minutes to Darrell Armstrong. Despite exploding in January, he is still at the whim of Don Nelson, and with Marquis Daniels returning soon, you just don’t know how which Jason Terry you’re going to get from here on out. This might be a nice sell-fake-low opportunity on Terry.

Wally Szczerbiak getting 26 points in 29 minutes. Wally World is one of my favorites to break out after the break. The only reason Latrell Sprewell is getting ANY minutes right now is to bump his trade value. Should he actually get traded, look for Szczerbiak to get major minutes and looks at the basket as the #2 option for the Timberwolves.

Jim Jackson and Walter McCarty combining for 0 points, 5 boards, 1 TO and 3 fouls on 0-5 shooting. Yikes! While Phoenix may be the only team in the league where all of their starting 5 can start for your fantasy team, it looks like the guys shoring up the bench are going to be pretty useless. This was a pretty extreme case, but nonetheless, those of you who picked up Jackson after he got moved to the desert can probably let go of him.