The contract year can often be a friend to smart fantasy players. The theory isn’t too complicated. A player on the verge of free agency will want to play his best possible ball in the hopes of turning that into as much money as possible in the off season. Makes sense. But does it always work that way? Let’s find out. We’ll take a look at some of the bigger name players heading toward unrestricted free agency (thus ignoring all of the 4th-year guys for now), or guys with player options that they might wish to opt out of (as in, not Shaq, who probably isn’t looking to give up the, what?, $30 million he’s due to make next year?).

Antoine Walker
03-04: 14/8.3/4.5, .8 steals, .8 blocks, 1.0 3s, 42.8%
YTD: 20.1/9.4/3.7, 1.2 steals, .6 blocks, 1.6 3s, 41.5 %
This one’s not so easy because Walker’s obviously receiving much more playing time this year in Atlanta compared to last year in Dallas. But still, lots of people thought before the year that the combination of ’Toine being the #1 (and really only) option in Atlanta in a contract year would lead to almost insane numbers. But the reality is that he’s basically putting up the same numbers he put up in his last year with the Celtics, with a couple more boards, less assists and significantly fewer 3s. People thought he might average 25 shots a game; instead it’s only 18.6 fewer than any of his last three years in Boston. Still, you have to think that as we get into the final two months, Antoine might realize that he wants to beef up those numbers. Remember Atlanta at the end of last season? It was a free for all, with Chris Crawford becoming a fantasy force and Bob Sura going on a triple-double rampage. There are some younger guns around this year to keep things from getting too crazy, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see ’Toine pick it up a gear. Still, his crippling percentages make him a dicey player to target.

Gary Payton
03-04: 14.6/4.2/5.5, 1.2 steals, .7 3s, 47.1%
YTD: 12.3/3.0/6.2, 1.2 steals, .6 3s, 46.6%
Perhaps the numbers aren’t that impressive, but Payton has done a good job of repairing his reputation by being a model citizen in Boston. Don’t expect any statistical surges out of him from here on out.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas
03-04: 15.3/8.1/1.4, 2.5 blocks, 48.3%
YTD: 16.9/8.0/1.4, 1.9 blocks, 45.5%
Besides a modest increase in scoring, Ilgauskas hasn’t seen a contract year spike. The fact that he’s been able to stay healthy has been the best thing working in his favor towards a big pay day. That and the Cavs fine play to date. His solid play will likely continue, but with LeBron running the show, don’t expect anything too crazy.

Jeff McInnis
03-04 (with Cleveland): 11.7/2.7/7.6, 1.2 steals, 1.0 3s, 41.7%
YTD: 15.1/2.1/5.5, .9 steals, 1.6 3s, 42.8%
McInnis might be one to look out for. It seems the Cavs would like to re-sign Big Z, and everything you hear says they’re looking to make a run at Michael Redd, and this would leave McInnis as the odd man out. He’s putting up the most shots since 2001-2002 with the Clippers, and I expect it to continue. This doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a great target, but he’s more likely to look out for himself than some others.

Michael Redd
03-04: 21.7/5.0/2.3, 1.0 steals, 1.6 3s, 44%
YTD: 22.1/4.2/2.5, .9 steals, 1.5 3s, 44.6%
Here’s another player that some people thought would have a serious breakout in his option year. But it hasn’t quite happened. The big disappointment is that his 3s have actually dropped slightly, after dropping from 2.2 to 1.6 last year, despite receiving 8.6 more mpg. This has to be frustrating for his owners. It just looks like this is the player Redd is. He’s 25, which isn’t old, but isn’t exactly young by today’s NBA standards. It would be silly to give him a max contract.

Latrell Sprewell
03-04: 16.8/3.8/3.5, 1.1 steals, 1.2 3s, 40.9%
YTD: 12.6/2.4/2.2, .7 steals, 1.1 3s, 41.6%
The best example of a contract year not always meaning great production. What can possibly be said about Spree at this point? Maybe he knew what he was doing in asking for an extension before the season, knowing that he was completely washed up. Like his teammate Sam Cassell, his track record is so consistent, that contract-status aside, you have to think that he will pick those numbers up in the second half. He’s played at least 30 minutes in each of the last five, but he’s just not someone to count on. The Wolves are definitely a team to watch in their last five before the break, though. Home games against Denver, Chicago, New Jersey and Cleveland and a road game at Utah. If they can take, say, 4 of those 5 and settle on a rotation, Spree just might be worth your last roster spot. That’s as much as I can endorse him.

Dan Dickau
03-04: Scrub
YTD: 14.1/3.1/4.4, 1.1 steals, 1.4 3s, 42.6%
Not as much a case of a contract year, but just a guy who wanted to show what he could do and he knew he’d probably only get one opportunity, because that’s what happens to 6-foot guards that are deemed as slow and a liability on defense. The thing with Dickau is that he had a reputation to overcome and even thought’s he proven that he can play, people will still be able to reel off reasons it’s a fluke (crappy team, etc.). This is why “when Baron Davis comes back” (that phrase always belongs in quotes), I still expect him to make the most of his minutes whenever he’s out there. Wouldn’t be surprised if he turned into a Juan Dixon-esque chucker.

Damon Stoudamire
03-04: 13.4/3.8/6.1, 2.2 steals, 1.9 3s, 40.1%
YTD: 15.3/3.5/5.6, 1.6 steals, 2.2 3s, 40.3%
The numbers aren’t that much better, if at all, but remember that Damon was a great player last year, finishing in the top 40 on the Player Rater. But still, this was an easy one to see coming. Like Dickau, it helps to have a negative reputation (for completely opposite reasons, of course) to overcome in addition to being a free agent. So much motivation. For all of you who bought “fake high” (which might have a whole different meaning with Damon) after his 54-point outburst, well done. Telfair will eat in NVE’s time, not Damon’s. Just like last year, he’s a top 40 guy from here on out.

Ray Allen
03-04: 23.0/5.1/4.8, 1.3 steals, 2.6 3s, 44%
YTD: 24.0/4.2/4.1, 1.1 steals, 2.6 3s, 43.5%
You know what you’re getting with Ray. He’s got nothing to prove. Still, as Chad Ford has pointed out, some team will likely regret giving max dollars to a 30-year old shooting guard this summer. Eddie Jones, Allan Houston, anyone?

Larry Hughes
03-04: 18.8/5.3/2.4, 1.6 steals, 1.3 3s, 39.7%
YTD: 21.2/6.1/5.3, 2.8 steals, 1.0 3s, 43.5%
This is another one we should have seen coming. He’s always had a chip on his shoulder, feeling he should have had more opportunities, especially considering that the one time he did get the big opportunity, with Golden State after being dealt from Philly in the 99-00 season, he put up numbers basically in line with what he was doing this year. It will be very interesting to see his production when he comes back in two weeks, because in his absence Gilbert Arenas has really taken over the team. I still expect Larry to make sure he gets his numbers.

With the trading deadline coming up in the real NBA, I thought it might be a good idea to take a look back at some of the trades that happened earlier in the year and see how they’ve turned out. Without further ado:

12/27 – Rockets acquire David Wesley from Hornets for Jim Jackson and Bostjan Nachbar
Wesley, somewhat predictably, took a slight hit in value after this move. That’s what happens when you go from a team featuring 3 injured all-stars to 2 healthy ones. His scoring has slipped below 10 ppg with the Rockets, and white his 3’s are slightly up, this trade moved him from roster worthy to waiver wire material. Nachbar, buried on the bench in Houston, has shown flashes in New Orleans, including a 21-point, 4 – 3 pointer outburst against the Jazz last week, but is also not worth owning right now. Jim Jackson, well, we’ll get to him a bit later.

1/3 – Warriors acquire Zarko Cabarkapa from Suns for future draft picks
Cabarkapa is one of those guys that we think will produce when given the minutes. Unfortunately, no one seems to want to give them to him. When Troy Murphy got hurt, we had hoped Zarko would see 30-35 mpg – instead, the Warriors have gone with a small lineup. Nonetheless, Zarko has seen 15.6 minutes per game so far this month, and has responded with 9.2 points, 4.2 boards, 0.6 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 50% shooting from the field. He’s a deep (very deep) sleeper to have some value in the second half, and depending on his situation next year could be a great late-round draft pick.

1/10 – Magic acquire Doug Christie for from Kings for Cuttino Mobley and Michael Bradley
Since trying to improve their defense with this deal, the Magic are still giving up over 98 points per game, and are 7-8 with Christie on their roster. Christie has had problems getting into the offensive flow in Orlando, scoring only 2 points in each of the last 2 games and averaging a horrendous 6.4. His assists and rebound numbers are also down, and he is not worth owning in any league right now. Mobley, despite missing some time with injuries, is enjoying 38 mpg right now in Sacramento, has upped his assists to 3.8 per game, and should be a top-50 player from this point on.

1/21 Pistons acquire Carlos Arroyo from Utah for Elden Campbell and a future first rounder.
Never has a players stock dropped so much as Arroyo’s with no injuries or any other real substantive reason. Now with the Pistons, he’s a clear backup, and shouldn’t have any real value unless Chauncey Billups gets hurt. Those of you still holding on to him can give him up. Elden Campbell was released, signed by the Nets, and also has no value.

1/21 Suns acquire Jim Jackson from Hornets for Maceij Lampe, Jackson Vroman and Casey Jacobsen.
Aww, poor Jim Jackson. He didn’t wanna play for the Hornets. So they shipped him out and got a pretty good return. Jackson will likely be a borderline fantasy player over the rest of the year. Some nights he’ll have 5 3’s, like he did twice in three games January, sometimes he’ll score 4 of his team’s 123 points, like he did last night in Sacramento. The Hornets, meanwhile, got a future FBB favorite in Lampe who isn’t worth owning this year, plus an interesting player in Casey Jacobsen. After struggling a bit in his first few games, he’s put up 12.8 points per game in February. He’s not roster material just yet, and we’ll have to see how Baron Davis’s return affects his numbers. But he’s definitely one to keep an eye on down the line.

So, what’s the lesson here? None of the players who’ve been traded are putting up significantly better numbers with their new team. A couple – Cabarkapa and Mobley, for example – are doing slightly better, but that’s probably just due to more minutes. And quite a few players have definitely lost some value in their new homes. So be sure to temper your expectations when you see a player’s name on the trading block – new scenery doesn’t necessarily mean new value.

I like to spend a lot of time here yapping on and on about those fringe guys that could help you out short term. Like how Malik Rose could give you 17/10 for a few games if Duncan sits out, or how Trevor Ariza should be a good source of steals if Jamal Crawford is to miss some time. This is all very important, because every little bit counts, but let’s face it: Studs win championships. These are the real difference makers. You can play the free agent list perfectly, but if you aren’t getting big numbers from your big players you aren’t going to win. I mean, look at Kevin Garnett. It’s easy to take him for granted, but you just have to look at the player rater to see what a beast he is. He is TWICE AS GOOD (slightly more, actually) as the 10th best player. This doesn’t mean you should necessarily trade Stephon Marbury and Paul Pierce for him, but it does stand to show that you can grab all the little guys at all the right times, but if you’re first and second rounders aren’t getting it done, you’re just going to be fighting for 3rd or 4th place.

So is it a good strategy to load up on superstars and keep the rest of your roster in a more or less constant state of limbo? That’s one way of going about things. Make some two-for-one trades, eliminate all of those middling 70-100 ranked players and have a handful of studs and handful of rotating spots. To make this work you really need to stay injury free, though. One team in my league has gone for this strategy, and it’s sort of working. He’s got Dirk, Amare, Kobe and Webber, who are all top 16 players as far as averages go on the rater. But with Kobe missing a bunch of time and Webber starting to miss some time, it’s catching up with him. Besides Chauncey Billups, who just misses being considered a stud, and Bobby Simmons, whose unprobable run has continued, his roster is full of disposable players. Right now he’s got Brevin Knight, Ruben Patterson, Tony Battie, Melvin Ely, Rodney Rogers, Eddie Griffin and Rick Brusnon. I’m all about rotating guys in and out, but it’s best if you can leave it to two spots on your roster. Anything more than that and you are likely in trouble.

Anyway, in honor of studs and the all-star rosters being announced, I’ll indulge myself and tell you how I would have made the all-star rosters. And this isn’t fantasy all-stars, but real-life, not just based on stats, in other words.

East Starters
Guards – LeBron James and Allen Iverson
I think these are pretty obvious choices. LeBron is already one of the top 10 players in the league, and you have to love how he makes everyone around him better. He’s such a fun player to watch. And AI deserves it because of how he’s adapted his game this year.

Forwards – Jermaine O’Neal and Grant Hill
How can you not give some love to Grant Hill? All that stuff about him being a good guy and one of the league’s role models and how more players should be like him – I buy into it all. And he’s still silky smooth if not as explosive as he was back in his heyday with the Pistons. On the other hand, how can you not love Jermaine O’Neal for totally nailing that guy right in the face? I’ve never been a big fan of Jermaine’s game, but he’s been playing inspired ball since his return.

Center – Shaquille O’Neal
Who’d you think it was going to be, Mark Blount?

Reserves
Gilbert Arenas, Vince Carter, Kirk Hinrich, Jason Kidd, Paul Pierce, Dwyane Wade, Ben Wallace
Yes, there are lots of guards here, but they deserve to make it. I don’t think anyone will argue with Gilbert at this point. Out of all the FBB favorites, he’s easily #1. Dwyane, like LeBron will be on these teams for a long, long time, although until AI retires, it will be hard for him to crack the starting lineup. I don’t like how pouty Pierce and Carter can be, and out West neither of them make it. But Carter has shown that he can still be a star when he wants, and Pierce has been a slight disappointment but still has the Celts in first place. We need another big man, so we’ll go with Ben Wallace over Ilgauskas and Bosh. Big Z isn’t the best defensive player and Bosh is close but he still can’t take over a game on offense the way Big Ben can on D. Hinrich and Kidd are the two most “controversial” picks, I suppose. Yeah, Kidd’s been hurt, but I don’t care. He’s still one of the biggest game-changers in the league. And the Bulls deserve a representative, and Hinrich has stepped up his defense and has taken a leadership role in just his second year, so he gets the nod.

West Starters
Guards – Kobe Bryant and Tracy McGrady
Not the greatest years for either of them, but they are two of the true superstars in the league, and they deserve to start.

Forwards – Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan
And it should be this way for about another five or six years or so.

Center – Amare Stoudemire
He’s been playing center most of the year, so I’m putting him here. My pick for all-star MVP. It’s his first one, and you know he wants to make an impression.

Reserves
Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Mike Bibby, Brad Miller, Ray Allen, Manu Ginobili, Andrei Kirilenko
The easiest ones for me to pick were Nash and Nowitzki. I may not think Nash is the MVP, but he’s obviously one of the top PGs, and he belongs out there. Dirk keeps getting a little bit better every year. He and Brendan Haywood are basically the same size, give or take about 15 pounds. Think about that next time you watch Dirk do everything he does. I’m putting both Bibby and Brad Miller on there, because the Kings haven’t missed a beat even though Webber’s missed some games, Peja’s having a down year and their bench is thinner than it’s ever been. They are two of the most underappreciated players, although fantasy players sure have been appreciating them the past couple weeks. That leaves three spots. Ray Allen gets one because of the Sonics great play and he’s been their best player. Really, he’s not the main reason for their success, as they’ve just played great team ball with their bench of Vladimir Radmanovic, Antonio Daniels and Danny Fortson being top-notch. Manu has long been a favorite of mine and he gets the nod. The Spurs deserve two spots, and anyone who saw his 48-point game against the Suns knows that there are only a few players in the league who can take over a game the way he can. I’ll go controversial with my final spot: Elton Brand, Pau Gasol, Rashard Lewis, Jason Richardson, Yao Ming and especially Shawn Marion all deserve serious consideration, but I’ll go with Andrei Kirilenko. Like with Jason Kidd, I won’t hold his injury against him. I don’t like to think of this as the “best first half” team. It’s the all-star team, and AK47 is a star.

As we pointed out last week, we are getting into injury season in the NBA. Everyone’s got players hurt on their roster, and as Maryland head coach Gary Williams says, “I’m not going to get cards from other coaches in the league saying I hope your players [get better].” So what’s an owner to do? Injuries can be VERY tricky, and playing them right or wrong can be the key to your season. So today, we’re going to go over some of the best strategies for handling an injury-riddled team.

1. Temporarily Picking Up the Benefactor.
Most of the time, when a fantasy-quality player goes down, someone else on his team has to step up and becomes a quality player. As we like to preach here as much as possible, it all comes down to minutes in fantasy basketball. A great example right now is going on in Atlanta, where Al Harrington landed on the IL, and suddenly Josh Childress got a career-high 41 minutes in a game. Of course, one Harrington comes back, Childress should return to his 25 mpg and be useless again.

In order to use this strategy effectively, you’ve got to have some strong roster management. Often with a temporary pickup, the injured player isn’t banged up enough to be sent to the IL, meaning you’ve got to have an extra spot on your roster in order to pick up the backup. This can often be enough of a hindrance that playing the ‘temporary pickup’ card just isn’t feasible.

2. Permanently Picking Up the Benefactor.
There are some guys that you just know are going to get hurt. I like to call it the “Marshall Faulk Strategy.” For the last few years, whenever you took Marshall Faulk in a fantasy football draft, you HAD to take his backup – Trung Canidate, Lamar Gordon, Stephen Jackson, whoever – because you knew Marshall would miss some games during the year. The perfect example in fantasy basketball recently has been Baron Davis. After only 50 games in 2003, and 67 last year, he’s on pace for maybe 30 or 40 games this year. Maybe. And whenever he isn’t playing, his backup – at one point Darrell Armstrong, now Dan Dickau – has been pretty serviceable. Again, though, the ability to have an extra man on your roster at all times could become a problem.

3. The Rainy Day Fund Strategy
This strategy can work pretty well at this point in the season. Basically, you’ve got a guy who’s been stuck on the IL. Say, a guy like Harrington. He’s probably not going to miss more than 5 games. Your first instinct is to stick him on your injured list, pick up someone marginal at best (Sprewell? Nailon?) and just pray they don’t screw up too badly – which they will. But why stick yourself with such a bad player for 5 games? Just because you’ve got 5 games to make up by the end of the year doesn’t mean you have to make them up right now.

Instead, just leave your starting lineup open, and wait until you find a player on waivers who can really help your team. This strategy is particularly effective if you can make the opening in your starting lineup be in your utility spot. That way, you can even tailor your pickup based on what you need help in – blocks, steals, whatever – regardless of position.

4. The Sell-Fake-Low Strategy
We talked yesterday about the buy-fake-high strategy, a favorite of ours here at fantasy basketblog. Well it works the other way, too. A good example of this would be Emeka Okafor. While it sounds like his ankle shouldn’t bother him much upon his return, you’ve got to remember just how much basketball he’s played over the past year. After going all the way through the end of the Final Four in March/April last year, he then went and took part in the Olympics. Then, he came back to play 36 mpg in the middle for a struggling expansion team, with defenses keying on him whenever he’s on the court. Also, he’s got a bad back.

All I’m saying is, his odds for being injured a little more – especially with the Bobcats fighting for draft position – are pretty good. So it might be time to sell on Okafor, and while it seems like you’re selling low, really, you can expect him to struggle over the course of the season. This is a nice way to turn a negative into a positive for your team.

5. The Cut Bait Strategy
There are some guys – Tim Thomas, or Kwame Brown for example – that just aren’t worth your time or your roster spot. Even when healthy, they’re pretty marginal fantasy players and you can find a replacement for them pretty easily on the waiver wires. The more you keep them on your roster, the more they’ll just make you angry – there’s no sense in holding on to them.

6. The Pre-Emptive Strike Strategy
Chris Webber. Shaq. Baron Davis. Allen Iverson. None of them are expected to play more than 75 games in a year, and most of them won’t make it past 65. It’s around this time of year – after you’ve played a few months, but before the run for the playoffs – that you can expect them all to miss some time. If you get rid of them before the “big” injury hits, you did well for yourself.

So there it is. Obviously with injuries, your roster can really only handle so many at a time. But keep in mind that every team is going to deal with them. An injury is not the end of the world, and if you play your cards right, it could do pretty minimal damage to your team.

It’s Monday, time for the weekly trip around the league looking at point guard situations. Today we’ll do something a bit different and take a look at every team, division by division. Off we go!

Atlantic Division
Gary Payton has had a fantastic start to February, and even though his name keeps coming up in trade rumors, with the Celtics in first place, I just can’t buy it. You never know with Danny Ainge, but I really can’t see them putting Marcus Banks in control. Gary’s been solid all year, coming in at #60 on the rater and as long as he stays in Boston should continue to do the same. Allen Iverson continues to be a world beater when healthy. Even as PG I didn’t think he’d top his 6.8 apg from last year, but he’s up to 7.6. Jason Kidd is clearly benefiting from being one of just two legitimate NBA players on his team. As long as the knees hold up, he’ll be a stud. The assists are lower than usual, but that’s what happens when you have one person to pass to. Jacque Vaughn is not recommended, in any league. Forget about the Stephon Marbury/Jamal Crawford position switch. They’ll both put up their usual numbers. As predicted, Rafer Alston returned strong from his two-game suspension. He might have one more outburst in him this season, but he’s still a top 40/50 player. And if you picked up Milt Palacio for his one game as a starter without Alston, you got 13 points, 9 boards, 7 assists, a steal and a 3, so well done.

Central Divison
Chauncey Billups is a very underappreciated fantasy player. He’s #22 on the Rater and always gets his minutes. A great stabilizing force at the most important position. That LeBron James guy is pretty good, but I wonder if the animators on The Simpsons have ever seen him? Eric Snow averaged 7.5 apg in his 4 starts, but he got at least 40 minutes in each of those games, so that’s not that great. Kirk Hinrich’s shooting woes continue. He still belongs in every lineup. I don’t expect Jamaal Tinsley back until Friday, but that’s just me. Don’t let Anthony Johnson’s 21-point, 7-for-7 night on Friday fool you. The 9/3/1 he put up on Saturday is more like it. And here’s the weekly plea for Mike James to get the starters job in Milwaukee. He’s so ready, it’s not even funny. But I worry even if he gets the starting nod, Mo Williams will still get 20+ minutes off the bench. James hasn’t had back-to-back 30 minute games all year. But once he does, grab him and don’t think twice about it. Make it happen, Terry Porter.

Southeast Division
Damon Jones is hanging on for dear life. #157 on the 30-Day Rater. Not pretty. Keyon Dooling is stealing his mojo. Might be time to let go, if you haven’t already, but Damon could go on a 3s binge at any time. Gilbert Arenas is my hero. He’s so much better than Steve Francis, there’s no question. The Bobcats dreaded two-headed monster is back. Jason Hart has averaged 24.7 minutes in the last three, compared to 30.7 for Brevin Knight. Knight’s obviously the one to use here, and he’ll be a fine source of assists, steals and shortness. What happens when a starting PG who wasn’t worth using gets hurt? Someone else becomes not worth using, and that’s what’s happening in Atlanta. With Ty Lue expected to miss a handful of games, Boris Diaw was removed from his hyperbaric chamber and saw 36 minutes. And he did what he usually does with 36 minutes: 4/4/5 with a steal. He’s a poor man’s Bruce Bowen. Yes, that’s an insult.

Southwest Division
Tony Parker is a much better player in real life than in fantasy. As long as the offense runs through Timmy, though, his assists will never be too high. Jason Terry checks in at #29 on the 30-Day Rater. And tt was good to see him bounce back after a couple of rough games at New Orleans and Indiana. Let’s hope Nellie keeps giving him the time he deserves when he gets back. As my FBB cohort pointed out, Bob Sura is good. I could have had him for Kenny Thomas a month ago. Ugh. Yeah, he’s banged up, but who isn’t. The guy clearly enjoys being out there and should continue being a top 60 player. It’s been a good couple weeks for Jason Williams, checking in at #36 on the 15-Dayer. Earl Watson’s return from injury might hurt a bit, but J-Will is solid, if you can put up with the occasional clunker. Who knows when Baron Davis is coming back? You just can’t count on him for anything at this point. What’s the hurry? At least that’s what Dan Dickau owners are saying. He’s #21 in the past 15. Even if/when Baron comes back, Dickau has earned time. I can see him getting 30+ minutes off the bench, eating into J.R. Smith’s time. Ah, spoken like a man who just traded for Dickau earlier this morning.

Northwest Division
Luke Ridnour continues to see lots of clock, including 40 minutes on Saturday, and that was with Ray Allen back. His owners have to like that. We like him in the second half. It’s time for Sam Cassell to pick it up. I’m a lot more confident he can do it than Latrell Sprewell. His assists are there, but the 3s and steals really aren’t. It’s hard to know what to expect from him. He’s been so damn consistent over the past five years, that you almost expect him to go on some monster run for a month or so. He was breaking out right before he got hurt back in January, so maybe he’ll do it for real now. Andre Miller is durable and not flashy, but always solid. Except that year with the Clippers. His great FG% lets you go for a 3-point gunner with a crappy FG% as your other PG. What can you say about Damon Stoudamire? He’s playing for a contract, and he only likes the most primo hydroponics. He’s hit at least two 3s in every game over the past month. Gotta love the little guy. But Sebastian Telfair is going to be a good one. Him and Shaun Livingston are going to have some good battles in a few years. As for Utah, I told you that situation was one to avoid. Don’t trust Jerry Sloan, and don’t use Raul Lopez.

Pacific Division
Steve Nash is pretty good, but I’m with Sports Guy. He’s not the MVP. I don’t care that the Suns fell apart when he was out. To me, the MVP is the guy who takes over the game in the last five minutes, when everybody knows exactly what’s happening, but you still can’t stop him. Nash just isn’t that guy. Mike Bibby sure is on some kind of a roll. He’s finally putting up numbers that show what a good player he is. As much as I’ve hated the Kings through the years, it’s never been Bibby. He’s the only true baller on the team. There’s Chucky Atkins at #36 on the 30-Day Rater. Enjoy it. The 3s will still be there when Kobe gets back, but the assists and points will suffer. Marko Jaric is frustrating. A back-to-back of 17.5/2.5/9 with 3 3s and a steal, but he follows it with 30 scoreless and gets hurt. He needs to be fully healthy and productive when Livingston gets back, because Livingston is the future and the team’s best playmaker. Jaric can and will still see time at the 2 or even the 3, though. Speedy Claxton is back and the situation in Golden State is like the one in Charlotte. 27.5 mpg for Claxton in the last two, 25.5 for Derek Fisher. Claxton starts and is a fantastic thief, so he’s the better bet. He’s also the better bet to be injured again in a few weeks, so be ready to grab (the also banged-up) Fisher when that happens.

As we said Friday in our Weekend Preview, this weekend was a pretty important one for teams trying to figure out if they were still in the playoff picture or not. Getting a feel for which teams might be adding, and which might be subtracting, during the trading season can give you a leg up on your fantasy opponents. So let’s see who was most dramatically effected by the games this weekend:

Minnesota Timberwolves – Yikes. The T-Wolves are just falling apart, and are now in the midst of a 5-game losing streak to teams including Milwaukee and Boston. At this point they’re 1.5 games back of the Kobe-less Lakers for the final playoff spot in the West, and fading fast. Latrell Spewell and Sam Cassell, both in the last year of their contracts, are among the top candidates to be moved to a contender at the deadline, and this poor weekend may have pushed forward a timetable for that trade. A good preemptive move might be trying to trade for Wally Szczerbiak, or picking up Troy Hudson or Eddie Griffin from the waiver wires, as they all could see more court time and be depended on for their scoring ability if/when Spree and Cassell get moved.

Toronto Raptors – The Raptors may have saved their season with about 20 minutes of the most inspired basketball they’d played all year long. Down 22 against the Wizards on Friday in the 3rd quarter, an assault led by Jalen Rose, Rafer Alston and a rejuvenated Donyell Marshall brought them back for the victory. While they promptly went out and lost to Dallas the next night, the effort against the Wizards may have done enough that they won’t trade away Rose or Marshall just yet. Rose is averaging 21.8 ppg and 35 minutes over his last 5 games, and is a terrific buy-fake-high candidate right now.

New Jersey Nets – Another team lucky to be in the East, where a sub-.500 record is good enough to still have hopes of the playoffs, the Nets had a monster win against Detroit Saturday afternoon. While they don’t really have any assets to use to add a player to the team, you’ve got to think that because they’re only 3 1/2 games back in the lowly Atlantic, they’re not going to be trading Jason Kidd anywhere. Of course, they’re one Vince Carter knee twist from going in a totally opposite direction.

A Sura Thing

Now, from the “Guys who play their best basketball after turning 30″ department, we have Bobby “Bob” Sura. It took him about 20 games to get himself together, but since mid-January he’s averaging 13 points, 6.1 boards, 5.6 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.1 3’s. Yesterday against the Lakers, he was 2 assists shy of a triple-double. He may have been the biggest benefactor of the Wesley-Jackson trade earlier in the year, and it looks like his amazing numbers with the Hawks last year were no fluke. I can’t imagine he’s on anyone’s FA wire right now, but nonetheless, he’s a guy to target in next year’s draft.

Playoffs? PLAYOFFS?

Can we just make that the official title for any playoff-related post? Anyhow, now that we’re done talking about the OC, let’s get back to what’s really important – the NBA. And this weekend could be bigger than you think. The NBA Trading deadline is but 20 days away, and this weekend could turn teams from buyers to sellers on the market. Let’s take a look at some of the teams who are deciding whether or not to throw in the towel:

Milwaukee Bucks – Ah, the East. Where else can you be 16-27 and just 4 games out of a playoff spot? The Bucks are in just that spot, and the odds are that they’ll be fairly active on the trade market once the playoffs move out of reach. With Michael Redd becoming a free agent in the offseason, he may become the biggest name to be moved this month. The Bucks play at home vs. the Clippers tonight, then at Washington on Saturday. A couple losses might expedite the trading process for the Bucks. The rumors have Redd going to Denver, which would likely cut into his value.

Toronto Raptors – Perhaps the most-discussed team when it comes to the trade market, the Raptors could be headed the other direction. In the pathetic Atlantic Division, the Raptors are only 3 games out of first, and only 2.5 out of a playoff spot in the East. And while their lineup doesn’t look too imposing, they did manage to go 8-6 in January, and started February with an impressive one-point win over Indiana. Wins against Washington tonight or Dallas on Sunday could pull Jalen Rose (19.2 ppg over his last 5) off the market.

Portland Trailblazers – No column would be complete here at fantasy basketblog without mentioning the Blazers. It used to be that the Blazers would all be getting in trouble, but they wouldn’t break up the team because at least they were winning. Not so anymore. After missing the playoffs last year for the first time since 1982 (!), the Blazers are nowhere near .500 this year and have really no reason to think they’ll be anywhere near the playoffs. They play Charlotte tonight and Sacramento tomorrow, and a couple of losses to an expansion team and a injury-laden Kings squad could push the Blazers brass to make some moves sooner rather than later. Remember, they dealt Rasheed Wallace last year, and he went on to win a title. Could Shareef Abdur-Rahim be this year’s Sheed?

Game of the Week(end)

Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat, Saturday, 7:30pm EST.
The two hottest teams in the East meet up here, and fantasy implications abound. The Bulls are playing off their rockers, undoubtedly forcing management to worry about re-signing Eddy Curry and Tyson Chandler to long-term deals that will kill the franchise. The real matchup here is between two second-year point guards, Dwayne Wade and Kirk Hinrich. Hinrich is looking like a classic point guard who will be worth a 3rd to 4th round pick for the next 10 years. Wade, on the other hand, plays more like a 2 guard, and helps in unconventional ways for a PG (FG%, blocks). Both, however, will be stars in this league for years to come.

I have a secret for you. Are you ready? Promise not to tell anyone? OK. I watch The O.C. There I said it. OK, I’m not being completely honest with you. I don’t just watch The O.C., I love The O.C. I spend large portions of my day thinking about it (and not just the lesbian scenes). There’s a basketball game tonight, with Lebron, Dwyane and Shaq. But you can be sure that until 9 p.m., I won’t see a second of it. Because I will be watching The O.C. So since it’s Thursday, and I just can’t do another day of “maybe this guy will be worth picking up” (I mean, Darius Songaila is a good pick up if Webber misses time, you know that), I’ll do something similar to what my FBB cohort did this morning and draw up some comparisons. But instead of using basketball, we’ll use male characters on The O.C. Why? Because it’s our blog, and we do what we want! Or rather, I do what I want. I’m sure my cohort is horrified.

Sandy Cohen = Tim Duncan
He’s the glue. Yeah, the show may be about the travails of the young ones, but who’s the first name to come up in the credits? That’s right, bushy eyebrows himself, Peter Gallagher aka Sandy Cohen. He goes about his business and he always does things the right way. Not flashy, but always, always gets the job done.

Seth Cohen = Dwyane Wade
The unassuming youngster who came out of nowhere to be a star. When the show started, it was Ryan Atwood, the bad boy from Chino, who was supposed to be the focal point. But a funny thing happened. People became enamored with Seth Cohen, and he ended up being just as big a part of the show. Sort of like Dwyane. LeBron and ’Melo were all the talk, but now we realize that while LeBron deserves everything, ’Melo is barely fit to hold Dwyane’s jock. Do basketball players even wear jocks? Still, they both have their downsides – Seth’s neurosis and obsessive tendencies and Dwyane’s nagging injuries.

Ryan Atwood = Yao Ming
When the show started, we weren’t sure if this would be the worst show of all-time or if it would be fantastic, and lots of this rested on the casting of Ryan. He’s the focal point of the show? What’s so great about him? Just like all the doubts with taking Yao #1 overall. Really? That awkward 7’6” Chinese guy? And yeah, it turns out that maybe Ryan, like Yao, isn’t that great after all. But you know what, he’s still pretty damn good, and there’s something endearing about him. He’s smarter and funnier than we give him credit for. Just like Yao. He’s not a dominant force, but wouldn’t you want him on your team, fantasy or real? Maybe neither him nor Ryan will ever be the dominant presence, but we like them fine.

Caleb Nichol = Michael Olowokandi
He sucks. He just flat out sucks. And you hate him for it. Once every blue moon he shows some promise, like last week when it looked like Caleb might actually reach out to his illegitimate daughter after ignoring her for so many years. And once every blue moon Kandi will throw up a 15/10/4 block game. But by now we know better than to expect any change. They are both douches, complete and total.

D.J. the Gardner = Voshon Lenard
Well, not this year maybe. But Marissa used D.J. for a quick fling, for a month or so, where he was everything she needed. And each year (except for this year), Voshon Lenard has that one month where he just goes insane and can come off the waiver wire to help carry your team by nailing tons of 3s.

Jimmy Cooper = Eddie Griffin
Sometimes things would be great for Jimmy Cooper. Then he’d go and lose everyone’s money and things would be terrible. But then he’d manage to pick himself back up and things would be fine. But then things would get worse again. And then he’d have to go away for 6 months and straighten his life out. Sort of like Eddie Griffin. Never any consistency. Things are great when they are great, but that never lasts long, and going away for six months (rehab, etc.) is always a possibility.

“I hate my team. Constant annoying injuries.”
- Actual post on my league’s message board this morning.

Well I hate to break it to you, but just about everyone’s team is dealing with injuries. This is the time of year where the players start to wear down. They’ve been playing ball for over 3 months straight, and the all-star break is in sight, but not quite here yet. But it’s true, this year has been particularly bad for injuries. Look at ESPN’s Live Draft Results and the first few rounds are pretty scary. Let’s break it down round-by-round (assuming a 12-team league)

Round 1
3. Kobe Bryant – When all is said and done, he’ll have missed a month.
6. Andrei Kirilenko – Sure he’s back now, but he missed 2 months.
7. Peja Stojakovic – He’s missed 5 straight with back spasms.
12. Ray Allen – Missed 2 games with the flu.

Round 2
13. Baron Davis – Surprise.
14. LeBron James – Missed 2 games with a bad ankle last week.
20. Zach Randolph – Missed 2 weeks with a knee injury, and is finally getting back.
21. Allen Iverson – Missed 3 games last week with a myriad of injuries.
22. Sam Cassell – Not that he’s been any good on the court anyway, but now he’s hurt his shoulder, too.
23. Pau Gasol – On the IL with plantar fasciitis.

OK, I’m gonna stop there, I think. Have I made my point? 10 of the top 24 players (42%) are dealing with injuries. They’re part of the game. Next week, we’re going to look at a couple of strategies of how to deal injuries to your top players.

Movie Makin’, Movie Movie Makin’…

OK, so Rudy Tomjanovich is out as the Lakers coach. And now the big rumor is that Phil Jackson is on his way back to the Lakers. Now in all honesty, I can’t see this happening, but rumors and predictions are what fantasy sports are all about, so let’s take a quick second and think about how this would work. Phil comes back, and he’s got a team that is VERY reminiscent of the first round of the 3-peat Bulls. Think about it. If you were to make a movie about the ‘90-’93 Bulls, what current NBA team would be a better cast? Starring…

Kobe Bryant as Michael Jordan
He’s gotten all the comparisons, he’s gotten the rings, he’s got his own team now. He can score 30 points a night when he wants to, and takes over games like no other player in the league. Nobody will ever be as good as MJ, but Kobe is damn close.

Lamar Odom as Scottie Pippen
Scottie was a near triple-double threat with the Bulls at this point, scoring about 20 points, and grabbing around 7 boards and dishing 7 assists a night. Odom doesn’t provide the defense that Pippen does, but he’s also a much better rebounder (particularly this year) and a better deep threat on offense. He’s an excellent passer for a man his size, as well.

Chucky Atkins as BJ Armstrong
BJ, well, he knew his place. Get the ball to Jordan or Pippen, and get out of the way, and occasionally shoot a 3. Atkins can fill that role. The triangle might cost him a few assists a game since he won’t have the ball in his hands as much.

Chris Mihm as Horace Grant
Chris Mihm/Horace Grant, you just stay under the basket and grab rebounds. Is that so hard? Of course not.

Caron Butler as The New Wrinkle
Obviously, Kobe isn’t as good as Michael, Odom isn’t all that close to Pippen, Mihm isn’t quite Grant, and Atkins and Armstrong are kind of a wash. The X-factor is Caron Butler, who is a better 3rd option scoring than the Bulls had until they found Toni Kukoc.

So there you have it. What does this all have to do with fantasy basketball? Well, if Phil comes back to LA (I still think that the idea itself is absurd), you can kinda get an idea of what his triangle offense would mean to the players on the team. Plus, it’s not like Phil is the only one who can implement the triangle. If Tex Winters returns to the staff in some capacity, you might see the triangle offense being run regardless of who the head coach is.

Note to Grizzlies that I suggest might be worth using: Be careful. You will get hurt. It happened with James Posey. It happened with Earl Watson. Who’s next? Dahntay Jones, I still hate you because you went to Duke…

Anyway, today let’s take a look at the Bulls. Scott Skiles is threatening to shake things up, as he feels the Bulls may have gotten a little too complacent after they made it over .500. Back-to-back losses to the Celtics and Nets isn’t the end of the world, and Skiles is probably just bluffing, but his four non-Kirk Hinrich starters played a combined 65 minutes last night, so something might be afoot.

First off, if anyone appears safe, it’s Hinrich, and thank the lord for that because he’s now my healthy player. In the last four games of January he averaged just 30.8 mpg, down from his season average of 36.9, but he should be fine, and were it not for his absolutely brutal 39.3% FG, he’d be a stud. As is, he’s a very solid contributor, especially in the big three PG cats, not to mention a nice 4.2 rpg. So don’t worry about Kirk, he’s fine.

Do worry about Eddy Curry. You’ve seen him. The dude is huge. Nearly 7 feet tall, almost 300 pounds. You see how effectively he uses his size on offense, where he’s just about unstoppable on the blocks when he wants to be. But when you have that size and talent, and you average just 4.6 rpg in 30 mpg (which he did in January), it’s easy to see why Skiles is upset. Eddy had a great stretch from Jan. 15 to Jan. 22 where he saw at least 32 minutes in each game, but in the five games since he’s averaged just 23 minutes. That’s not going to cut it. We might be seeing all that Curry has to offer. He’s a top-10 asset in FG%, even when getting only 25-30 mpg. If he gets up to 35 mpg, make that top-3, with only Shaq and Amare clearly better. But if he can’t stay on the court, he’s not a positive anywhere else. On the Rater right now, he’s a negative in every category except blocks, where he’s below average for a center. It’s hard to have him in your lineup right now, but you might not have many other options.

The best thing working in his favor may be Tyson Chandler’s cranky back. It’s always been a problem and is reportedly acting up again, even it hasn’t caused him to miss any time. In those last 5 games that Curry has averaged just 23 minutes, Chandler has averaged 27.2 minutes. Chandler is no offensive force (he’s attempted more than 10 shots only twice all year), but he has his uses. The Marcus Camby comparison has been used before and it’s quite appropriate, given their fragility and blocks/boards prowess. Chandler is 6th in the league in rebounds per 48 and 14th in blocks. He finds himself just outside the top 50 on the 15-Day Rater, so he obviously has value. If his back problems keep him from getting over the 30 minute mark it’ll be too bad. Compared to Curry, he’s a far less frustrating option, because you know he’ll usually give you at least 7-8 boards and 2 blocks each game. If he’s available, he shouldn’t be, and you should grab him. But he’s a tough guy to trade for because of his back issues. I don’t like playing non-starters, but he’s one I’d make an exception for at this point. His minutes are more assured than Curry’s, and those blocks are valuable.

Luol Deng is yesterday’s news. He just hasn’t been productive lately and doesn’t help out that much even when he’s going well. He shoots in the low-40s, doesn’t average a 3 or a steal or a block and doesn’t do all that much scoring or rebounding. Then again, you could say the same about the person who might replace him, Andres Nocioni. Average his stats out to 33 mpg (the minimum he could play while being an option) and you’d get the following line: 12.0/6.2/1.8 with .6 3s, .9 steals and .6 blocks. There’s just not that much value in that, so it would be best to stay away from both of them unless one of them completely gets eliminated from the rotation.

How about the Eastern Conference rookie of the month, Ben Gordon? He’s a perfect example of the dangers of owning a bench player. On Jan. 25 he had a very nice 18/3/6 in 30 minutes and the next game he played just 7 minutes. That’s a lot of frustration to put up with, especially for someone who really only helps you in 3s. His scoring is nice, but at not even 15 ppg, he’s below what you need.

So what’s the verdict? Well, pay close attention. That’s always the verdict. I’m not in Scott Skiles head, I don’t know what he has planned. I’m pretty sure he’s not going to give any of the old dudes (Antonio Davis, Othella Harrington, Eric Piatkowski, Adrian Griffin, etc.) enough time to do any damage, but he may give them enough to make sure the young guys are near-worthless. It’s all about who gets the minutes. That said, assuming a completely level playing field (if they all get time, that is), here’s how I’d rank the Bulls right now: Hinrich, Chandler, Curry, Gordon, Nocioni, Deng, Bill Cartwright, Duhon. Stupid Duhon.