Archive for March, 2005
Standings Watch

While it’s always important to see who’s dropping out of the playoff race at this point in the year, it’s also pretty important to see who’s playing well enough that they don’t have to push themselves too much at the end of the regular season. Let’s look two teams that are pretty much stuck where they are in the standings, and don’t have much to worry about.

Miami Heat

The Heat are only 2 games away from clinching home court in the East. They are ridiculously far ahead in the standings right now, and if you’ve been living on Earth recently, you might have noticed that when there’s not much to play for, the Diesel doesn’t play much. After missing 17 games each of the last three years, this year he’s only missed four, which his owners have to be thrilled about. But once home court is wrapped up, you’ve got to imagine that he’ll see a pretty significant cut in his minutes and may even sit out a game or two at random to get extra rest before the playoffs. This could/should lead to extra minutes and points for Alonzo Mourning, but the chance isn’t good enough to pick up Zo.

Seattle Sonics

Judging from the egg that the Sonics laid last night against the Spurs, they really don’t have much hope of catching either San Antonio or Phoenix for the 1 or 2 spot in the West. Added to the fact that they’re 9.5 games up on the Nuggets in the Northwest, and the Sonics are lock for the 3rd spot in the West. This means that guys like Rashard Lewis and Danny Fortson, who are dealing with minor injuries, could end up missing more time than normal because they don’t have much chance of moving up or down in the standings. This bodes well for Flip Murray, who could be a nice pickup for your team if you need points.

One-Day Wonders
Pick ‘em up today, so you can play ‘em tomorrow!

G – Flip Murray, SEA
Speaking of which, he took the most shots of any Sonic last night, and with Rashard Lewis expected to be out again Friday, he’s a nice pickup.

F - Rodney Rogers, PHI
With Chris Webber likely out for a game or more with shoulder and knee problems, look for Rogers to get a lot of minutes at the 4 spot Friday at home against Dallas. Should he get 25-30 minutes, he should be good for 10-12 points, 5-6 boards and one or two threes.

C – Steven Hunter, PHO
Hey, when we recommend a guy here in ODW and he comes through with 5 blocks, we’re pretty happy. So we’ll re-recommend him for Friday against Minnesota on the chance that Stoudamire misses another game.

Games Remaining Watch

Obviously, as you’re trolling through the waiver wires trying to replace your injured players, its important to make sure you’re picking up a guy who is going to take care of all those games you still have available to play. So without any further ado, here’s how many games each team has left to play:

10 Games Left
Miami, Sacramento

11 Games Left
New Jersey, Houston, Minnesota, LA Clippers

12 Games Left
Boston, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York, Detroit, Indiana, Milwaukee, Orlando, Atlanta, San Antonio, Dallas, Memphis, New Orleans, Seattle, Utah, Phoenix, LA Lakers, Golden State

13 Games Left
Chicago, Cleveland, Washington, Charlotte, Denver, Portland


So while you should be interested in who sees minutes should Eddie Jones miss time with his sprained ankle, well, they’re not going to be THAT much help, as the Heat don’t play all that much over the rest of the season. Meanwhile, marginal guys like Jared Jeffries and Kwame Brown should be good game-fillers for your squad.

One-Day Wonders
Pick ‘em up today, so you can play ‘em tomorrow!

Only 3 games Thursday night, but there is one guy we can find worth picking up:

G – Rasual Butler, MIA
We’re going to go ahead and assume that Eddie Jones misses at least one game with his sprained ankle, opening the doors for “Casual” Rasual Butler to get some decent minutes. Look for him to get at least a three and maybe 12-15 points in relief of Jones.

Stupid Bottom-Dwellers

You would like to think that with only 30 spots available for NBA GM’s and another 30 for coaches, there would be enough mildly competent people in the world to fill those positions. But no! Instead, there are teams running around like chickens with their heads cut off, giving playing time to the wrong people and not making much sense with a lot of their decisions. Let’s look at 2 of them right now:

Atlanta Hawks
GM: Billy Knight
Coach: Mike Woodson
The Hawks have lost 22 of their last 23 games. They’re leading the way for most balls … in the draft lottery. You’d like to think that with all hope for the season lost by mid-November, they would have decided that the best thing to do is play their youngsters exclusively. Wrong again! Instead, the Hawks have been giving major time to 35-year-old Tom Gugliotta, 31-year-old Tony Delk, and 27-year-old Tyronn Lue. True, the Joshes (Smith and Childress) are getting plenty of PT, but what about these guys:

Royal Ivey, SG
The Hawks had 3 second-round picks in the draft this past year, and Ivey was the second of the three. One thing I like to do when looking at players who get spotty PT is look at the games where the player has gotten 20 mins or more. For Ivey, he’s reached that mark in just 6 games this year. But here’s his average line in those games:

9.8/2.5/2.5, 1.2 steals, 0.3 3’s, 55% FG, 89% FT in 23.7 minutes.

Converted to 40 minutes per game, he comes out at 16.6/4.2/4.2, 2 steals, 0.6 3’s, same percentages. You’re saying you wouldn’t want to at least give this guy another look? That you NEED to have Tony Delk in the lineup 30 minutes a night? Ugh.

Boris Diaw, GF
Diaw was taken late in the first round of the 2003 draft and looks to be a bust. He got 25 mpg last year and only put up 4.5 points and is getting even less time this year as a result. However, he’s shown flashes – he put up 17/8 in 31 minutes against the Knicks last week, and if you’ve invested a first round pick in a guy – overlooking Brian Cook, Josh Howard, Mo Williams, Kyle Korver, and others – you might as well play him when you’ve got nothing to lose.

New Orleans Hornets
GM: Allan Bristow
Coach: Byron Scott
First things first: I like Byron Scott. I think he got a raw deal with the Nets and that he was basically forced into going to the Hornets, a terrible situation and a team that is getting ready to rebuild. Unfortunately, Scott is not a rebuilder. And as such, he’s continued to give vets like PJ Brown and Lee Nailon major minutes for no reason whatsoever. And while Dan Dickau has certainly gotten major minutes this year and has been a major revelation in the Big Easy, there are others who could stand to get some minutes to, such as:

David West, PF
West has only played in 18 games this year due to injury, but I still like to think he’ll be able to be a quality player in the NBA. After all, he was the 18th overall pick in the draft in 2003, and he had a very impressive career at Xavier. West did get 3 starts in late November/early December, and responded with 11/7.3 and very little else stat-wise in 36 mpg. Those are decent numbers, and I’d like to see West get more PT as the season closes out instead of PJ Brown.

Bostjan Nachbar, SF
Nachbar appears to be another one of those European invasion busts, never really establishing himself in Houston. However, since being traded to New Orleans, he’s actually seen decent minutes – 21 per game, in fact. And he’s responded fairly well. He’s put up 8.2 ppg, and showed some distance on his jumper by knocking down 1.2 3’s per game (on 40% shooting from long range). He’s not a particularly good rebounder or passer, but I’d like to see him get 30-35 mpg instead of Lee Nailon.

One-Day Wonders
Pick ‘em up today, so you can play ‘em tomorrow!

G – Deshawn Stevenson, ORL
Here’s a guy who is probably on you waiver wires but is a great one-day wonder prospect. He had back-to-back 20 point games while Steve Francis was out, and when Jameer Nelson went out with some ribcage injury, he got 40 minutes in last night’s win against Atlanta. He’ll be unlikely to help you anywhere but in points, but against the Raptors on Wednesday, he’s got a great chance of scoring over 20 again.

F – Michael Pietrus, GSW
This is a guy that, should he get into the right situation next year, will definitely be worth targeting late in your draft next year. Last week against Milwaukee he dropped 18 points and 4 steals on the Bucks – he could be lined up for a similar game against the same team on Wednesday.

C – Steven Hunter, PHO
With Amare Stoudamire sitting out last night with an ankle injury, Hunter and Jake Voshkul split time at center. Hunter WAY out played Voshkul, getting 14/6 with a block in 23 minutes, while Voshkul had more fouls (5) than points (4) or rebounds (3) in 21 minutes. Look for Hunter to get closer to 30 minutes Wednesday against the Sixers if Stoudamire can’t go. If Stoudamire plays, though, Hunter is useless.

As the Point Guard Turns

We’re down to the final three weeks of the regular season. If you have games to use and you need help in 3s, assists and steals, you best pay attention. I’ll try and cover relevant backups here as well, for the truly desperate, and aren’t we all at this point?

Gary Payton’s nagging back injury hasn’t kept him from seeing 30+ minutes in 11 straight games, but it has hampered his effectiveness, as he’s just #90 on the 15DR. Marcus Banks and Delonte West are mere afterthoughts at this point, and even with Payton’s status somewhat up in the air, can’t be counted on at all. Along with plenty of others, I’ve talked about Allen Iverson as an MVP candidate if he could get the 76ers into the playoffs. It looks like he’ll succeed, but it’ll still be tough to deny Shaq. The big man’s won only a single MVP award in his career. How’s that? Jason Kidd is back to his FG% killing ways, shooting 35% for March so far. His numbers have been down across the board this month, but he’s still a top player. He’ll be an interesting pick next year, as it will be interesting to see what the offesason holds for him and the Nets. There’s never much to say about Stephon Marbury. I’ll commend him for shooting 46% from the field this year, making him one of the most valuable point guards in that category. Rafer Alston has taken far fewer 3s as the season has progressed, but has picked up his steals. He’s settling in as a prototype #2 fantasy point guard. But if he’s the best you have at the position, you’re going to be in trouble.

Chauncey Billups is up to #18 overall on the PR, but he’s another guy I feel makes a fantastic #2 fantasy PG, mainly because 15 guys have more assists than him and 47 guys have more steals than him. Even the most desperate shouldn’t take a waiver on Carlos Arroyo, unless it’s a game you’re sure the Pistons will win by 30. Word is that Kirk Hinrich will be back in the lineup tonight after missing the last three games, but we know how that goes. No harm in putting him in there, as he’s proven that he can put up his usual numbers even if he isn’t 100%. Chris Duhon sure did nothing to assert himself in Hinrich’s absence. He averaged 33.3 mpg in the three contests, but was good for only 5.0/3.3/6.0 with 1 3 and 1.7 steals. Those last three numbers are OK, but are in line with his usual numbers. It’s a good ol’ time share situation in Cleveland. Eric Snow has the possibility of giving you empty assists; Jeff McInnis will give you nothing. This is ugly. Anthony Johnson is still at #35 on the 15DR. His lack of steals is a bit distressing, but he’s getting assists and is even making some 3s, which he usually doesn’t do. Keep using him. Mo Williams is back and seems to be fine, although he came up empty in the assist column on Saturday. That’s just a fluke, though, as he had 8 the night before that, and he’s still shooting like Andre Miller. Get him back in there. Someone in my league actually picked up Anthony Goldwire for a day. I never, ever thought I’d type that.

It’s clear now that Damon Jones was playing over his head in February. He’s still hitting 2+ 3s a game, so he still has value, but 3.8 apg and 0.7 spg in March are ugly. The Wizards might have to get Gheorge Muresan out of his behind-the-basket seats and into a jersey the way things are going. This just means more production for their backcourt, though. Gilbert Arenas checks in at #30 on the 15DR, but he’s that low only because of his brutal shooting. Steve Blake had been seeing some decent minutes, but was down to just 10.7 mpg in the last three. Oddly enough, he’s become more of a three-point threat than a playmaker, but with Arenas and Hughes both capable of playing 48 minutes, he’s not a great desperation pickup. Jameer Nelson returned to the bench with the return of Steve Francis, but still put up a great game with 19/3/2 with 3 steals and 2 3s. Nelson is clearly the team’s best player right now and he has no business coming off the bench. His numbers for March: 16.5/3.7/5.2 with 0.9 3s, 1.7 steals on 50% and 77% shooting in 37.4 mpg. He needs to be starting next year. To be 5+ on the PR in any category shows complete and utter domination. Brevin Knight is there for assists in steals on the 15DR. By my count, he’s had five instances where he’s missed games this year, making him terribly frustrating to own, but you can’t argue with the results when he’s out there. That 15 assist, 8 steal game on Thursday was something else. Jason Hart’s doing his best to have some value, but it’ll be tough since he’s replacing Keith Bogans and not Knight. Knight obviously has a monopoly on Charlotte’s assists, so that means Hart has to get his value from 3s and steals, which makes things trickier.

Tony Parker has been held to 14 points of less in three of the four games since Tim Duncan went down. Even with his step forward this year, he’s another guy you should be looking at as a #2 PG. We’ll throw Brent Barry in here, I suppose, even though he’s averaging only 2 apg in his last three. Still, it’s nice to see him show signs of life. Still, playing on the Spurs, with Parker and Manu Ginobili around, it’s tough to see him as a fantasy option anymore. He’s got value right now, though, obviously. If you own Jason Terry and you’re frustrated, just think – you could have drafted Sam Cassell or Jamaal Tinsley instead. As for those of you who drafted two of the three … sorry. Devin Harris has 7 3s and 5 steals in his last four games. If you can use that, go for it, but with a four-game road trip ahead, he might not see any blowout garbage time PT. Bob Sura won’t be the same as he was pre-Mike James, but he should be fine to get in there. Mike James is just one of many “how desperate am I for 3s” guys. Jason Williams has only 14 assists in the four games since returning from his latest injury. At least he’s hitting 2+ 3s in that same span. Don’t bother with Earl Watson now, but chances are that J-Will will miss one more game this year, just hope you know in advance when it will be and scoop up Earl for that one. Speedy Claxton is back and is probably the best cheap steals guy available to you. His return is a buzzkill for Dan Dickau, who might have lost himself a few million dollars this past month.

Luke Ridnour has sort of broken out of his funk. He’s a quality #3 PG for your team. Even with his second half slump, he’s still at #74 on the overall PR, thanks in large part to his durability. Take it by averages and he drops to #103. Andre Miller has definitely broken out of his funk. The Nuggets have scored at least 113 points in their last six games, which is so 1980s. Miller’s at #31 on the 15DR, about where he should be. With the team clicking like that, it’s no surprise that everyone has value. Earl Boykins is at #48 on the 15DR and should most definitely be in lineups. Well, you’ve waited this long for Sam Cassell to come back, so of course you should use him. Who cares if he’s still coming off the bench? He’s still arguably the best percentage shooter in the backcourt in the league. It’s getting ugly for Sebastian Telfair: 5.7/2.0/3.7 with no steals or 3s in his last three. Yikes. Keith McLeod is a step below Speedy Claxton when it comes to desperate steals guys.

Steve Nash has totaled 10+ assists in 10 straight, one short of his best of 11 games, which he’s done twice this year. Shaq’s still my MVP. Leandro Barbosa is emerging as a desperation option, and could be especially valuable in the last week of the season, depending on how the home court advantage battle is going. Mike Bibby only #59 on the 15DR. What?!?! That’s what happens when you make about a third of your shots. You tell ‘em Chucky Atkins, you tell ‘em. Shaun Livingston should fare better than Sebastian Telfair from here on out, even in less minutes, just because he’s more likely to bust out an 11-assist game like he did last Wednesday. Don’t look now, but Baron Davis is #16 on the 15DR, even as he continues to shoot like, well, Baron Davis. But when you rack up the 3s, assists and steals like he’s been doing, that’s how it works.

Weekend Review

First things first, on Friday we discussed the possibility of the Knicks falling out of the playoff race for good this weekend, and that seems to be exactly what happened. After a rough OT loss to Seattle on Friday, they allowed the struggling Trail Blazers to hit 52% of their shots and fell on Sunday, effectively killing their playoff chances. We’re going to be watching closely to see if either Michael Sweetney and/or Trevor Ariza will get some more playing time with the season out of reach.

Down goes Haywood!

I’m always a little wary of writing about my hometown Boulez, because I don’t want to talk too much about them, but this is probably newsworthy. Brendan Haywood fractured his thumb at the end of the Wiz’s loss to the Clippers on Friday night. Combined with the injury to Antawn Jamison, this opens up plenty of playing time for Etan Thomas and Kwame Brown, two guys who qualify at center. As odd as this might sound, right now I’ve got to recommend Thomas as the better pickup for your squad right now. While Brown certainly has more potential and will get more looks at the basket, other than points and rebounds he won’t help you anywhere. His 44% shooting is subpar for a center, he’s blocked only 2 shots in his last 107 minutes on the court, and shoots under 60% from the stripe. Thomas, on the other hand, will certainly help you in blocks, scored 15 points last night against the Sonics on 5-7 shooting, and should be more consistent than Brown over the next few weeks. Look for something like 8-10 points, 6-8 boards and 1.5 blocks from Thomas while Haywood is out.

Still Barking

Something very interesting is going on in Minnesota – the T-Wolves are winning! True, they have played some cupcake teams during their recent 4 game winning streak, including the Hornets and Clippers at home, but a win is a win and they are still just 2.5 games back of Denver for the 8th spot in the West. Even more unbelievable is that Sam Cassell, of all people, is leading the charge. Over the last 4 games he’s averaging 17.8 points and 4 assists, in just 24.8 minutes. He is absolutely on fire right now and it shouldn’t be long before he’s forced himself back into the 30-35 minutes per game range.

One-Day Wonders
Pick ‘em up today, so you can play ‘em tomorrow!

Only 4 games on Tuesday, so it’s slim pickings, and we’ve only got one guy to recommend:

F – Nick Collison, SEA
With Danny Fortson suspended on Sunday night, Collison showed some flashes of why he was a mid-first round pick in 2003 for the Sonics, putting up 14 and 8 with 2 blocks and looking very impressive on the offensive end. Fortson is also “injured,” so Collison may have another chance to excel Tuesday against the Grizzlies.

Weekend Preview

The last weekend in March. We might not be in the “stretch run” just yet, but we’re certainly rounding the corner. We’re already seeing teams and players pack it in for the season. I mean, it can’t be a coincidence that with the Lakers falling fast, that rumors are starting to sprout claiming that Lamar Odom’s sore shoulder is going to keep him out the rest of the year. Or that Seattle, with a 10-game lead in the Northwest, might be without Rashard Lewis for a little while with a sore knee. So with that in mind, let’s look at the next team to possibly drop out of playoff contention:

New York Knicks (3.5 games out of 8th spot in East)
Games this weekend: Friday at Seattle, Saturday at Portland

The Knicks could very well provide you with a nice fantasy prospect over the last few weeks of the year. Trevor Ariza saw over 25 minutes in each of the last 2 games and responded well, averaging 10.5/8 and netting 3 steals and a block in Wednesday’s blowout win against the Celtics. Now, he may have gotten those minutes due to Kurt Thomas’s infected elbow, but if the Knicks end up 5 or more games out of the race after this weekend, we can only hope Isiah Thomas decides to play the youngster a little more often. They do have a fairly light April schedule in front of them, though, which may unfortunately keep their hopes up. On top of that, it’s not like these players are going anywhere anytime soon, so they may as well try to learn to play together. Nonetheless, we here at FBB would like to see Ariza get some consistent minutes.

Game of the Week(end)

Minnesota Timberwolves at New Jersey Nets, Saturday, 1pm

Here are two other teams that are currently on the outside looking in right now in the playoff race. Neither has particularly good chances of getting in, but they’re both definitely still in the race. The Wolves are currently closer to falling out for good, though, and that has to scare the pants off of KG owners. He’s been dealing with a sore knee for a couple months, and despite playing like a maniac in March, his team still isn’t any closer to the streaking Nuggets. I’d be particularly worried about the Wolves shutting him down in early April if things don’t improve. KG owners might want to look into grabbing the consistently inconsistent Eddie Griffin as insurance.

The Nets just keep on hanging around in the East, and after having their 5-game win streak broken by Memphis last night, they’re still just 2 games behind Philadelphia. Savvy fantasy owners with a spot on their IL will be considering picking up Richard Jefferson if he’s available. Jefferson promised to be back for the playoffs, and maybe sooner. If the Nets find themselves in a must-win situation in their last few games, Jefferson might find himself on the court for a couple games at the end of the year.

Friday’s Foreigners

It’s Friday, time to check in on some foreigners. So let’s go.

The big news last night was Andrei Kirilenko goingdown with a broken wrist. I saw it happen, he tried to break his fall after going in for a layup, and itwasn’t pretty. AK47’s season comes to an end with himappearing in just 41 games. Needless to say, owners who drafted him in the first round weren’t too happy with their returns. Although it was a lost season forKirilenko, that doesn’t mean next season will be as well. His wrist injury should heal, it’s his kneeinjury from earlier in the season that’s a biggerconcern long-term. But the way he played in March showed that he’s still one of the best around when he’s on the court. His March numbers were 17.6/6.6/3.3 with 1.9 steals, 3.3 blocks, 0.8 3s on 51% shooting. That’s absolutely dominant production (he checks in at#5 on the 30DR), and if his injury-filled year lets him slip to the second round of drafts next year … well, don’t think twice about grabbing him. He’s still just 24 and should be entering his peak years. His team also can’t possibly be any worse. We’ll talk about him more in the offseason, but certainly don’t dismiss him based on this fluke injury.

Another foreigner should benefit from AK’s absence,though, and that’s Mehmet Okur. While he hasn’t justified the huge contract Utah gave him, Okur has been a solid performer, and if Jerry Sloan was more willing to start him instead of stiffs like Curtis Borchardt or Jarron Collins his numbers would look a lot better. As is, his 12.3/7.2/1.9 on 47% shooting is very serviceable for a center, although you’d like to see more than 0.8 bpg. He’s upped that to 1.2 in March, and with Kirilenko and Carlos Boozer out, you’d have to think that Okur will see closer to 35 mpg Than the 27 he’s been averaging. Because Utah is a generally ignored team (for good reason), Okur may be sitting on your waiver wire right now. Typically, center is a position where people have the most games to make up. There is a lack of quality centers, so it’s likely you’ve gone with the minimum required so far, so when you missed a game or two, it probably wasn’t made up. Okur is as good an option as you’ll find out there right now. December – the month Kirilenko missed – was Okur’s best month of the year,as he saw his most playing time and was good for 14 and 8.5.

Nenad Krstic is making some noise for the resurgent Nets. They suffered a disappointing loss at home to Memphis last night to drop them three games behind the 76ers in the loss column, but it wasn’t Krstic’s fault. He seems to slowly but surely getting over his foul troubles and has decided to inflict those troubles on opposing teams. In January, Krstic averaged 32.5 mpg and attempted 3.2 free throws pergame. In February, he averaged 28.4 mpg and got to theline 2.9 times per game. In March, he’s down to 27.6mpg, but his free throws attempted have shot up to 5.4 per game, including a season-high 17 last night. This is a great sign, showing Krstic becoming more aggressive, and it doesn’t hurt that he makes 73% ofhis attempts, very decent for a big man. If New Jersey does indeed fall out of the playoff race, he is one ofthe players whose PT probably wouldn’t be affected. The Nets will want to see him continue to develop, sothey can know if they have a big man to rely upon nextseason. I would slightly favor Okur over Krstic rightnow, but they should both be scooped up.

We’ll end by talking about a couple of Brazilians. Ifyou’re a regular reader (and if you aren’t, may I askwhy?) you’ll know that I’m quite fond of Nene. Any bigman that gets steals like a point guard can have a space on my team. Problem is he has trouble staying healthy. He began the season banged up, slowly worked his way into shape, had one huge game, got banged up again, came back for a decent stretch, got suspended,came back and was decent, then got hurt again. He’s been back for three games now, and though he hasn’tmade much of an impact, that could change soon. His minutes have increased from 7 to 13 to 21, and heflashed his all-around game last night by going for7/6/2 with 3 steals and a block in those 21 minutes.The entire Denver frontline is banged up, and if Nene can handle it, he might see very healthy minutes from here on out. It might be unrealistic to expect much more than 30 mpg for the time being, but he can give you rebounds and steals that you can use.

Our other Brazilian, Anderson Varejao, can only give you rebounds, and that’s only if your desperate. Like Nene, he is capable of putting up some nice stealsnumbers if given the minutes (he’s averaging 0.8 injust 14.4 mpg this year), but he’s yet to surpass 26 minutes in a game this year. That’s still been enough time to him to put up six double-digit rebound games, although all of those came in January, before he was injured. He’s only for the rebound-desperate right now.

Guess Who’s Back

Did you guess Jamaal Magloire? Well, you shoulda, cuz that’s who’s back. And not a moment too soon, either! I mean, it’s too late for the Hornets obviously, but your fantasy team sure could use a nice 14-10 center helping out. Last night, he managed his first really strong game, going for 20/17 with 1 block on 54% shooting. Now obviously you’re not going to find him on the waiver wires, but take a look at whose team he’s on, and how he’s going to affect their rebound numbers. Right now we’re getting into the ‘all about categories’ point of the season, and sometimes it’s just as important to your team when one of your rivals gets an extra 140 boards over the rest of the season, as it is when you get those boards.

Standings Watch

A big win for Philly last night, as they moved to a full game ahead of Orlando for the last spot in the Eastern conference (speaking of Philly, there’s a great article on AI and Webber here). The setup in the East right now is spectacular for fantasy players. Right now there are 7 teams who have plenty to play for over the rest of the season. Washington, Cleveland and Chicago are all fighting for home court in the first round (read that again). Indy and Philly, in addition to trying to stay in the playoffs, are trying to move up to 6th so they don’t have to face Detroit or Miami. And Orlando and New Jersey are scrambling to get to the 8th spot. That means plenty of questionable players (Webber and Kidd come to mind) could have value all the way through the end of the season.

The Western Conference, on the other hand, is not as competitive. Now that Tim Duncan is out, Phoenix should have no problem wrapping up the top spot in the West. Dallas’s 4-game lead over Sacramento for the 4 spot and home court in the first round should be enough. And Denver looks like they’re not even going to give Minnesota or the Lakers half a chance at getting into the playoffs. You could see a lot of minor injuries turn into 3- and 4-game ordeals as players have less to play for in the regular season.

One-Day Wonders
Pick ‘em up today, so you can play ‘em tomorrow!

G – Shaun Livingston, LAC
Livingston might not be available in your league, but if he is, he’s a nice pickup not just for Friday’s game against the Wizards but also for the rest of the year. However, the Wiz have been giving up nice lines to point guards over the past few games – Anthony Goldwire, Howard Eisley, Andre Miller and Earl Boykins each have had at least 6 assists against the Wiz in the last week. Look for Livingston to get at least 6 or 7 assists, and if you need ‘em, here’s where to get ‘em.

F – Robert Horry, SAS
Ever since Duncan went out, Horry has hit 2 three’s in each game. His rebounds during that span (3.3) aren’t very impressive, but he can certainly help you out in 3’s, especially against the lowly Hawks.

C – Marc Jackson, PHI
Jackson has shown that when he gets minutes against subpar centers, he can put up a decent line. His 11 points and 12 boards against the Eddy Curry and the Bulls shows his ability. Look for him to at least put up nice numbers in points and boards against Rafael Araujo, Loren Woods and the Raptors.

Trouble in LA

After last night’s loss to Utah, the Lakers have to think that they’ve fallen out of the playoff race. They’re now 4.5 games out of the 8th spot, currently occupied by the red-hot Denver Nuggets. The Lakers have lost six straight games, and of their 11 games in April, TEN of them are against Western Conference playoff teams, including 2 vs. Phoenix and 2 vs. Sacramento. And to no one’s surprise, the weight of this losing streak is falling squarely on the shoulders of Kobe Bryant. After being completely outplayed by Dwayne Wade earlier this week, he has fallen apart in the fourth quarter of a couple straight games, and has gotten reamed by his interim coach. That’s right, his INTERIM coach is criticizing him. Not exactly where he thought he’d be at this point in the year.

Nonetheless, he’s still shooting plenty, as evidenced by his season-high 30.1 ppg in March. What he’s not doing, though, is passing the ball well, only 4.1 assists per game this month. This has meant that despite Lamar Odom’s absence from the lineup, other role players have had trouble establishing themselves during this losing streak. Chucky Atkins remains a quality starter, as does Caron Butler, but outside of those two, there are really no Lakers reliable enough to pick up for short-term help. You’d like to think that when 15 points and 10 rebounds go to the bench, somebody else on the team will pick them up, but apparently not.

One-Day Wonders
Pick ‘em up today, so you can play ‘em tomorrow!

G – Devin Harris, DAL
Well, that was quite a way to make a nice impression on your new coach. In his first major action under “new” head coach Avery Johnson, Harris lit up the Hornets for 17 points on just 7 shots, all in just 25 minutes. Considering he totaled ONE point over the past 4 games, odds are he’s on your waiver wire. Johnson may decide he likes playing the rook more than Don Nelson did, and he may well be worth playing tomorrow night vs. the Warriors.

F – Anderson Varejao, CLE
Yeah, we pumped him yesterday a bit, but he came through so we’re going to re-recommend him, just in case you weren’t paying attention. 11 points, 6 boards, 2 assists, a steal and 2 blocks last night in 25 minutes is a nice line indeed. He’ll provide a little help all over the stat sheet, and is quickly becoming an FBB favorite and potential sleeper for next year. We like him Thursday vs. Houston.

C – Shawn Bradley, DAL
Can you believe he’s been in Dallas for NINE straight years? Well finally, he might be playing well. I guess it was bound to happen. He’s still among the league leaders in blocks per 48 minutes, and he’s gotten 6 in the past 2 games while enjoying 31 and 23 minutes, respectively. With Avery Johnson still finding his rotation and Erik Dampier still out, Bradley could show up and get a couple more blocks and boards on Thursday night.

As the Point Guard Turns

Apologies for this coming up a day late.

Gary Payton has to be one of the most boring players to own this year. The averages are respectable enough – 11.8/6.0/3.1 with 1.2 steals and 0.6 3s on 46% shooting – but he’s scored more than 20 points just five times and has reached double digit assists in just six. He’s dealing with back issues now, so Delonte West – who has become an afterthought in the last week – might see some value, but don’t count on it. Allen Iverson’s shooting in the two games since he injured his thumb? That would be 18-for-51, or 35%. That hurts. It’s tough to shoot with a bum thumb, but AI is on a mission to get the 76ers in the playoffs, so don’t expect any decrease in PT. He’s more likely to just miss a game or two then come back with 40+ minutes than to take time off during a game. He’s played at least 41 minutes in 17 of his last 18 games.

All this turmoil in the Eastern Conference is wonderful news for Jason Kidd owners. On the back of a four-game winning streak, the Nets are just 1.5 games out of the last playoff spot and that means there’s at least two more weeks of quality minutes for Kidd, who is at least a top 20 player when he’s playing. Stephon Marbury is taking advantage of the Knicks’ vacant backcourt and putting up nice numbers, but still isn’t a world beater. Also remember that he’s 28, so he’s not going to get any better. Despite all of his off-court issues, Rafer Alston has been rather consistent all year. Those issues might make him a bit of a bargain on draft day next year.

Holy moly, did Chauncey Billups have himself a week or what?! How does 25.5/4.3/6.3 with 3.3 3s on 58% shooting sound? Catapulted him to #12 on the 15DR, and he’s still one spot ahead of Ray Allen on the overall rater. This Cleveland situation is one to watch, for sure. I was in favor of dumping Jeff McInnis last week, and it looked like the right move, but with Paul Silas gone, McInnis could be worth using again. Whatever the case, Eric Snow certainly didn’t help himself by going for a nearly impossible 0/6/1 in 40 minutes on Sunday. Even with PT, he’s like a poor man’s Anthony Johnson. That’s pathetic. I’m a huge Kirk Hinrich fan, but he shot 38.6% last season and is right back at 38.6% again this year. He’s still 26th overall on the Rater, but that’s a big weight dragging your FG% down. In his senior year at Duke, Chris Duhon made 29 of 96 3s in 37 games, for 30%. This year he has made 68 of 201 in 56 games, for 34%. Sort of interesting. Gotta give Anthony Johnson credit. He’s been in double digits in six straight and the Pacers have gone 4-2 in those games. He’s even at #34 on the 15DR, and should be in all lineups, given the lack of quality players available. A speed bump on the Mo Williams love fest highway. His decreased scoring isn’t a huge shock, but three out of four games with less than six assists isn’t good. He may be wearing down after playing more than he ever has.

Damon Jones is a purely one-dimensional player right now. He’s getting negligible assists for a PG, and isn’t getting steals or boards, either. He’s also seeing his fewest minutes since November. Unless you are trying to gain ground in 3s, there are probably better uses of a roster spot. Games like Gilbert Arenas’s 12-for-35 over the weekend against Milwaukee can kill a whole week for those you in head-to-head leagues. Still, over the course of the season, Gilbert’s shooting has been exactly on par with the likes of Tracy McGrady, Steve Francis and Ray Allen. The numbers may not have been as spectacular as you may have hoped for getting 46 minutes, but if Jameer Nelson gets those minutes again – and with Steve Francis out for the next two and Hedo Turkoglu out for the rest, he will – his numbers will be outstanding. He looks to be one of the best steals specialists next year. Brevin Knight is helping to win some championships. He’s #17 on the 15DR and is just absolutely dominating assists and steals. Hope he keeps those ankles well taped. What, you expected Tyronn Lue to keep that up? That’s your fault, buddy, not his.

With Tim Duncan out and Manu Ginobili banged up, Tony Parker is the #1 option for the Spurs. This is mostly a good thing, although his assist numbers will remain pedestrian. He’s also murdering his owners with his free throw woes of late. There’s just no reason why a point guard who is a 46% career shooter should be at 65% from the line. Jason Terry’s first game under Avery Johnson was fine. Second game? Not so fine. It was an easy win, so hopefully that’s the only reason he saw just 20 minutes. It was also Devin Harris’s most effective game since last year, so don’t expect that to be a recurring theme. Bob Sura is getting back into the groove. A clunker on Sunday, but two solid efforts before that. He’s still a low upside guy from here on out. He’s managed to render Mike James rather useless, except to those desperate for 3s. Poor Mike James. Jason Williams should put up his usual numbers now that he’s back in the starting lineup. I’ve never had him on a team, as he just seems far too frustrating to own. Still, if Earl Watson flees during the summer, both players could be solid bets next year. I would certainly grab Dan Dickau if he was let go. With Speedy Claxton out for at least a few, and Dickau looking for a contract over the summer, expect him to try to fill that box score up.

If Luke Ridnour can’t take advantage with Ray Allen and Vladimir Radmanovic out of the lineup, then you are really free to cut bait. Andre Miller has obviously decided not to shoot the ball anymore. He’s averaging just 7.2 attempts this month, but is making up for it with 7.8 assists. Still, a lot of his value was tied up in FG%, and that’s hurt by his lack of shooting. Why that’s Sam Cassell! Playing basketball! He beat Jamaal Tinsley back, so good for him. We’ll see if he can stay on the court for three straight games or get back in the starting lineup. Until one of those things happen, keep him on the bench. You really shouldn’t be playing Sebastian Telfair. He’s #158 on the 15DR and isn’t even getting many assists. Anthony Johnson is much better for now. Keith McLeod didn’t even have his “one out of five” good game.

If Steve Nash can stay at 11.5 apg, that will be the highest season average since John Stockton’s 12.3 in the 94-95 season. Well done, Steve. I thought the injuries would affect Mike Bibby’s shooting. He’s been as effective as Kirk Hinrich from the field lately. As you know, that sucks. He’s still #24 on the 15DR. Chucky Atkins has certainly been one of the most pleasant surprises this year. A strong finish should land him in the top 50 on the Rater. Shaun Livingston is back until he gets hurt again. He’ll make it so no Clipper PGs have any value, which was really the case all along. The Warriors are my new 2nd favorite team. Well, they will be once they get rid of Mike Dunleavy. That 33/8/3, 4 steal, 7 3s game Baron Davis threw up last week reminded you that he’s still got the talent to be a top player. But his shooting makes Kirk Hinrich look like Larry Bird. Derek Fisher has actually been more valuable lately.