Archive for March, 2005
Down Goes Silas!

This sure has been an interesting season for coaching hirings and firings. One of the biggest names in coaching, Flip Saunders, was fired midseason. Then, in the midst of a run at the playoffs, Johnny Davis gets fired. Then there’s the crazy Donnie Nelson debacle, which I don’t think I’ve ever seen before. And now, with his team pretty securely in position to make the playoffs, Paul Silas got the boot from the Cleveland Cavaliers.

One of the reasons that the Cavs listed for dumping Silas was that he had yet – nearly 4/5 of the way into the season – to settle on a rotation, and most blatant sign of this came Sunday when he benched Jeff McInnis for the entire game in favor of Eric Snow. So the new coach – and rumor has it that Flip Saunders could be handed the job as early as today – will have to keep his GM as well as fantasy GM’s happy with a more consistent rotation. They’re not interested in developing players right now – so the best players will get the most time.

Who has a chance to get 25-30 minutes a game now? At this point, only 4 players – Lebron, Big Z, Gooden, and McInnis – are seeing over 30 minutes a game. After them, no players average more than 5.4 points or 4.6 boards. The 2 players who have the best chance to get major minutes are probably Sasha Pavlovic and Anderson Varejao, who are both much better in management’s eyes than in Silas’. If you’re looking for rebounds, Varejao could be a spectacular grab if he gets 25-30 mpg. His 15.6 boards per 48 minutes (including 6.5 on the offensive end) are good for 9th in the league, and he also contributes 2.72 steals and blocks per 48 minutes, and is looking a lot like a poor man’s Ben Wallace. Watch closely to see if Varejao gets the minutes he probably deserves on national TV tonight.

New Feature Alert!
You’ve got games to make up somewhere, at some position – and lots of ‘em. And maybe you just don’t have the resources on your bench to fill those games. Instead, it might be time to rotate guys in off the waiver wire to fill out those games. So every day, we’re going to try and find one guard, one forward, and one center (again, I said we’re gonna TRY) that might not put up goose eggs in your starting lineup the next night. For example, today, we’re going to pick guys that we think have a decent shot at having nice games on Wednesday night, so you can pick them up today and plug them in your lineup tomorrow. So here comes the first edition of …

One-Day Wonders
To play on 3/23
G – Derek Fisher, GSW
The best way to find one-game wonders is to find backups of players who are sitting out. If Jason Richardson does in fact miss Wednesday’s game dealing with family problems in Michigan, Fisher is in line for major minutes, and we know he can produce when he gets those minutes.

F – Bostjan Nachbar, NOR
Consistency might not be his “thing”, but that’s ok. We’re just looking for one game of goodness, and going up against the fading T-Wolves and the equally fading Latrell Sprewell means the odds of Nachbar hitting a couple 3’s are pretty decent.

C – Zaza Pachulia, MIL
Hey, it’s not like you’re gonna be able to pick up Shaq for a game. Pachulia, though, should be out there. When he gets 20+ minutes this year, he averages 8.73/4.8/1.6 with a steal and .7 blocks, a little of everything. He’s gotten 20 mins each of the last 2 and responded well, so he could be worth your while.

Weekend Review

Down goes Duncan! Down goes Allen!

Boy, this sure was Ankle Sunday, huh? First, two minutes into a nationally televised game on Sunday afternoon, Tim Duncan rolled his ankle and was carried off the court, and was being wheelchaired around the locker room minutes later. Then later in the day, Ray Allen left in the first quarter of the Sonics game vs. the Lakers with a sprained ankle of his own. Now, there is not much word on the severity of either ankle injury, but you can expect Duncan to be out a few games at least. We know much less about Allen’s ankle, but the fact that he didn’t return to a close game against a playoff opponent does not bode well for his immediate future.

What really amazes me about Tim Duncan is that even though he’s definitely going to miss some time, there’s not really much you can do to take advantage of an injury to this top-10 fantasy player. If Nazr Mohammed is available, by all means grab him, but hope that he gets more than the 21 minutes he got yesterday. Devin Brown also might be worth grabbing at this point, as he seems to be sliding into the Stephen Jackson circa ’02 role. But with Ginobili playing his way back into game shape, and Bruce Bowen only getting 19 minutes, yesterday was someone’s time to shine on the Spurs, and it just didn’t happen.

However, if Allen misses much time, Flip Murray could be a huge pickup. When Allen missed 2 games at the end of January, Murray averaged 18/4.5/2.5 with 2.5 3’s and 1.5 steals. And last night, he scored 25 points once he took over for Allen. Murray is a great play for however long Allen is out. And with the Sonics playing 4 games this week, Murray should be picked up immediately.

James, KG Continue to Make Their Case
Quite a Sunday for LeBron: 56 points, 10 boards, 5 assists, 6 3’s, 2 steals, 18-36 from the field, 14-15 from the line. Is that the best fantasy line of the year? Possibly. But what about Kevin Garnett? 30/17/6 with a steal, 3 blocks, a three, 9-19 from the field, 11-12 from the line. For the first time in a couple of years, there is some serious doubt about who is going to be the first pick in next year’s draft. Right now, I’m shading towards LeBron … but that could change at any moment. If he maintains his ridiculous PG status next year, that could put him over the top.

Standings Watch
The biggest movement happened out west, as the Nuggets continued to win this weekend, and look like they aren’t far off from wrapping up the 8 seed. They’re 9-1 in their last 10, and their remaining schedule isn’t too tough (only 9 of their 17 games will be against playoff teams). Meanwhile, the Lakers are fading fast, losing their last 5 games, and with Lamar Odom out last night and probably tomorrow night, they could be essentially out of the race by the end of the week. That might mean that Odom (shoulder) and Chris Mihm (ankle) could take longer than expected to come back, meaning extra minutes for Stanislav “The Manislav” Medvedenko and Jumaine Jones.

Weekend Preview

We’re getting to the point in the season right now where the best fantasy basketball players are paying close attention to the standings, as well as the box score. From November until mid-March, the standings don’t really have all that much bearing on how your players are going to do. But now, players are achy and tired, everyone has some sort of nagging injury, and if the games don’t matter, some of the big names might decide against playing. So with that in mind, let’s check out the two teams with the biggest weekends ahead of them:

Orlando Magic
Games this weekend: Friday at Seattle, Saturday at Portland.
Don’t look at the firing of head coach Johnny Davis as a white flag from Magic management. Instead, it’s desperation move to try and get the players – most of all Steve Francis – to right the ship and guide this team to the playoffs. Unfortunately, they’re stuck in the middle of a 6-game losing streak, and have to finish off their West Coast swing with back-to-back games in Seattle and Portland this weekend. Already on pace with 8th-place Philadelphia, a couple of wins could move them right up against the 7th-place Indiana Pacers, who are looking at playing out the season without Jermaine O’Neal. A couple of losses, though, and they could be looking to the offseason and trying to trade Stevie Franchise.

Should they keep pace with the … err … Pacers, and the Sixers, Grant Hill and Francis owners should breathe a sigh of relief. But if they lose both games this weekend, it could mark the beginning of the end for Hill. He’s a consummate pro, but since turning that ankle you’ve got to think he’s worried about overextending himself in meaningless games. If that’s the case, Hedo Turkoglu should be snapped up immediately, considering his outstanding play last week while Hill was out. In fact, if you’ve got room on your bench, he’s not a bad player to stash away.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Games this weekend: Friday at Memphis, Sunday vs. Houston.
The T-Wolves are another team teetering on the brink off falling out of the playoff race, and could fall for good this weekend against 2 playoff-bound teams. And they’ve got plenty of players who would be more than happy to shut it down for the year, starting with Latrell Sprewell and Sam Cassell, who have both been huge disappointments this year. The problem with these guys shutting it down is that there are really NO young players on the T-Wolves who are ready to step up in their potential absence. This, of course, can be directly attributed to the Joe Smith penalty, as their drafts since 1999 have produced: Igor Rakocevic (one and done), Loren Woods (now with Toronto), Marcus Taylor (never played), Ndudi Ebi (0.8 ppg last year, ILed all year), Rick Rickert (never played), and Blake Stepp (never played). Yikes!

One youngster who could end up have a huge final month of the year is Eddie Griffin, who is a personal pick as a nice sleeper for next year. Despite only getting 21.1 mpg so far this year, he’s averaged 1.7 blocks and 1.1 3’s, and could entrench himself in the starting lineup at SF with a good close to the year. He might be on your waiver wire since he just came off the IL, and if so, should be grabbed. Troy Hudson and Fred Hoiberg could also see more time in the final weeks if the Wolves fall out of contention.

Foreigners on Fire

Watching the Warriors-Kings game last night – which was plenty more exciting than most of the college basketball earlier in the day – served as the inspiration for this post. You might not be able to tell from their modest box score lines last night, but Golden State has two very promising foreigners on their squad. Zarko Cabarkapa surely raised some eyebrows with his breakout game on Monday when he went for 26 and 10 on 8-of-13 shooting, including 5-of-7 from behind the arc. And this is from a guy who’s nearly 7-feet tall. Perhaps thoughts of “the next Dirk” are running through your head, but don’t get carried away. But Cabarkapa is certainly someone to keep an eye on. He was showing signs of breaking out last year in Phoenix before Danny Fortson layed the smack down and he only appeared in three games for the Suns this year before heading out to The City. Any big man who can shoot 3s is worth watching for fantasy purposes. He’s not going to have any consistent value this season, but depending on what happens with Mike Dunleavy in the offseason, he could be an intriguing pick next year.

Another player making an impact is this year’s lottery pick from Latvia, Andris Biedrins. Like Cabarkapa he stands near 7 feet, but he’s more of a traditional inside player. The Warriors have thawed him out recently and he’s seen double digit minutes in the past six games and has impressed. He’s grabbed 26 rebounds in 94 total minutes, a per 48 average of 13.3, which would be good enough for 21st in the league. He’s also He’s also blocked 6 shots in that span, a per 48 equivalent of 3.1, which would put him 15th in the league. Granted, these are very small sample sizes we’re working with, but still. He’s also made 11-of-16 shots over those six games, which isn’t too shabby at all. Adonal Foyle is the only other center on the roster, and even though he’s signed for another five years at $7 million a year (that makes me sad), I think the Warriors realize he sucks. Hard. It sounds crazy to say this, but the Warriors have something going on. A backcourt of J-Rich and Baron Davis is as potent as any in the league (at least for the 40 games Baron plays) and Troy Murphy is rock solid. If these two guys can keep their gains, the Warriors might be able to finish 11th in the West next year.

We’ll also take this time to talk about a player who might be able to help you this year, my current favorite foreigner, Bostjan Nachbar. Since we last checked in with him earlier this week he had another great game, going for 19/4/1 with 3 3s and a steal on 8-of-15 shooting in 32 minutes. He’s starting to separate himself from Casey Jacobsen, and since Lee Nailon isn’t part of the future in New Orleans, I’d expect Nachbar to see the majority of the minutes at SF from here on out. He’ll still likely come off the bench, keeping him from having too much value, but he hits 3s and gets some steals. That’s useful down the stretch.

Arming Yourself For The Final Push, Part 2.

One way to make sure you’re getting the most out of your team over these last few weeks is to get guys who are playing a lot of games during that time span. So with that in mind, let’s look at which teams have a lot of basketball left, and which teams have their busiest days behind them. Keep in mind, the gap between the teams with the most games left and those with the fewest is only 4 games, but those 4 games CAN make a difference, plus I already did the math, and I’m not letting all that effort go to waste. Anyhow:

Teams with the most games remaining (20 games left): New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Chicago Bulls, Washington Wizards, Portland Trail Blazers.

Now here is a nice little treasure trove of fantasy possibilities. Cleveland, Chicago and Washington are all fighting for home court for the first round of the Eastern playoffs. Their starters should continue to see a ton of court time and be playing 100% all the way to the end of the season. Plus, injuries here and there – we’re already seeing them with Antawn Jamison – could lead to more crucial PT for the top reserves. In Cleveland, especially, look for the veterans like Robert Traylor to get more PT over youngsters like FBB fave Anderson Varejao as the push for the playoffs continue.

New York and Portland are totally different stories. Its always tough to figure out what’s going on in New York, and while we’d like to recommend Trevor Ariza or Mike Sweetney as the Knicks should be giving major minutes to their developing youngsters, it looks like they’re happy to continue to play their overpaid vets 40 minutes a night. This is likely a situation to avoid. Portland, meanwhile, could provide some underdog fantasy helpers with their remaining games. It looks like Sebastian Telfair should be valuable over the rest of the year, but he’s likely already taken. I’d keep a close watch on Travis Outlaw, though, who has been getting 20+ minutes fairly regularly of late, and could be a nice cheap source of steals and blocks.

Teams with the fewest games remaining (16 games left): Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves.

This actually could be good thing for owners of Shaq and KG. A light schedule for them over the last month means that they are less likely to miss games with injury. Sure, KG is a rock, but we all remember how his stats suffered as he played through a weak knee in February. Still only 1.5 games out of the playoffs, look for KG to explode to the finish line. Also watch for Troy Hudson to possibly pick up his game – he thrives in the playoffs, and probably is pushing to get to the postseason more than anyone.

The Heat, meanwhile, are in a unique position – they’ve already clinched a playoff spot. They’re already so far ahead of the pack in the East – 8.5 games up on 2nd place Detroit – that you have to worry about Shaq and Dwayne Wade possibly slowing down their PT. What that does mean, though, is some more shots for guys like Udonis Haslem and Damon Jones. Of course, those guys are already picked up in your league. But before you think about going after guys like Michael Doleac or Christian Laettner, remember – the lack of games their going to be playing seriously hurts what little value they might have. So you’re better off looking elsewhere.

Arming Yourself for the Final Push, pt 1.

OK, get ready. The final rush is almost upon us. You’ve been waiting all fantasy basketball year for this last push for the finish line. And while everyone else is worrying about if Wassamatta U is gonna beat State in the Tourney, or who to pick first in their fantasy baseball league (Pujols, dummy! I mean, A-Rod! er … whatever), you’re quietly snickering to yourself as you scan the waiver wires hoping to pick up those players who will put you on top.

With about a month left in the season, the one thing you absolutely cannot afford is to have unused games. The worst – worst – thing to happen is for you to be down by, say, 5 rebounds, but you had 3 unused games at center. Do you realize how crappy a center can be and still get 5 rpg? Look at some of the names who are averaging over 5 rpg over the last month: Jackson Vroman, Obinna Ekezie, Rasho Nesterovic, even Dikembe Mutombo!

Not exactly a murderer’s row, huh? But now that you’re facing the final month, some guys who you normally don’t want on your team might actually help you out in certain categories. In fact, let’s go category by category. OK, here goes:

Points
It’s hard to imagine Reggie Miller being available after this past weekend, but if he is, he’s the obvious play here. Others include Matt Bonner, JR Smith, and Latrell Sprewell.

Rebounds
Michael Olowokandi has 9 boards in 18 minutes last night in his first game back from injury. He should be a spectacularly inconsistent rebounder, but could end up with maybe 7 a game over the rest of the year. Other possibilities include Kwame Brown and Jared Jeffries on the Wizards depending on how Antawn Jamison’s injury ends up, Dale Davis (especially with Jermaine O’Neal’s injury looking worse and worse), and Michael Sweetney.

Assists
Your best bet here is to check in on Monday’s As the Point Guard Turns, but my personal faves over the next couple weeks are Speedy Claxton, Eric Snow and Earl Watson.

Three Pointers
There are plenty of folks who can get you 1 or 2 3-pointers a night, so I’d look at what other categories you need help in before settling on one. You’ve got a nice variety of players here, so look for who is the best fit on your team overall, not just who will hit 30 3’s rather than 26 over the rest of the year.

Steals
You can find help in this category by basically going after any of the uppity young PGs. Tony Allen, Delonte West, Speedy Claxton, Earl Watson, Leandro Barbosa … one is as good as the other in steals.

Blocks
This past week Jerome James has blocked more shots (10) than he’s rebounded (8), and if you need blocks he’s on fire right now in that category. You also might want to dust off guys like Dikembe Mutombo, Rasho Nesterovic or Theo Ratliff, but my favorite right now is Antonio McDyess, who at least has a chance of helping you in other categories.

The Percentages
It’s hard to pick up a guy simply for his percentages, but if you’ve gotta, well, obviously you can hope Reggie Miller is still around. If not, guys like Marc Jackson, Darius Songaila, and Corliss Williamson might be decent bets.

Tomorrow, we’ll go over which teams have the most games remaining, so that you can stock your roster with the players who will play the most over the last month.

Checking in on … the Hornets (For Some Reason)

At this point in the season, pretty much all you can do with your team is hope guys play well, hope they don’t break their leg in a freak practice accident, and constantly troll the waiver wire for guys who you might be able to pick up, even if it’s just for a game or two. So with that, I figured it might be time to check in on the New Orleans Hornets, a team where possibly every player is there on your free agent list for the taking.

Backcourt
The New Orleans backcourt is a mess right now, with five guys trying to split time at basically two and a half positions. If you’re holding on to Dan Dickau because of his strong January and February, don’t let that fool you into keeping him around. In six March games his minutes have dropped to 26.7, and the rest of his game has fallen apart. His shooting is back to being woeful, at 35%. His assists are a solid 5.8, but the 1.0 3s and steals are below average, especially for a point guard. Although he’s seeing three minutes less per game, Speedy Claxton is a better use of a roster spot right now. Why? Simple – steals. Claxton has always been one of the best pick pockets around, and even in his 23.7 mpg in March, he’s still averaging 2.2 spg. Along with his solid 5.3 apg, that’s decent help for those desperate at PG. He makes more of an impact with his 2.2 spg than Dickau does with his 1 3pg and 1 spg. He’s also coming off his best game as a member of the Hornets, and there’s a chance Byron Scott will want to see what he offers.

Speaking of Lord Byron, he seems to have had a run-in with rook J.R. Smith, which slows down his momentum considerably. Smith had been suffering from the PT crunch, too, but just three games ago saw 39 minutes and had a very solid 23/3/5 with 3 steals and 2 3s. Because of this incident, it might be best to stay away from Smith, unless you really need 3s. Like most shooting guards, he’s not as valuable as he seems, since his strongest category is points and plenty of people score as often as him. He’s shooting 39% on the year and only 67% from the line. His season high in rebounds is 6, and he doesn’t get consistent steals.

Swingmen Bostjan Nachbar and Casey Jacobsen are somewhat intriguing. Nachbar has scored in double digits in three of the last four, and he’s grabbed 7 rebounds in two of those games, and 2 steals in the two others. He even had 2 blocks in one, and has 6 total 3s. This shows he possesses all of the skills to be an effective fantasy player, at least. He also shot 59% while seeing 20 mpg in February. He seems similar to someone I highlighted recently – Matt Bonner. He can contribute in every category, but is best suited for a role in which he doesn’t get the PT to make that happen. Casey Jacobsen is less interesting. If he can’t shoot better than 40%, he’s not going to stick around the league much longer, as he doesn’t bring much else to the table. Going forward I’d like to see Nachbar start to eat into more of Jacobsen’s minutes.

Frontcourt
If there’s one player that’s likely not available, it’s good ol’ reliable P.J. Brown. Every year he slips in the draft because of his absolute lack of upside, and every year his durability and solid play make him a draft day bargain. He checks in at #68 on the overall Player Rater right now. The next five guys behind him? Donyell Marshall, Jalen Rose, Al Harrington, Gary Payton, Antawn Jamison. He’s seen a slight decrease in blocks this year and his FG% has taken a hit, but he gives you 10.6/9.0/2.5, and thanks to Jamaal Magloire’s injury, he’s center eligible. That’s a useful player.

Chris “No, wait, wait, this time, I swear!” Andersen is on the shelf, so that clears up the frontcourt situation a bit. Jackson Vroman is trying to take advantage of his opportunity, and he is, to the extent that he can. His 17 and 5 game last night was about the best you could ever hope for, although he is capable of getting double digit boards. Still, even as a starter, he’s not an option. Lee Nailon isn’t much of an option either. Yes, he’s back in the starting lineup and has scored in double digits in 7 straight. But he’s another empty points player. Doesn’t even attempt any 3s, no steals or blocks. You don’t want him. He’s another guy that I’d like to see on the bench in favor of Nachbar. And also Maciej Lampe. He got a season high 26 minutes last night and … well, he got 7 rebounds. Still, he’s a guy were talking about as a lottery pick before he plummeted to the second round and then got traded all around the league as a “wait, if we throw this dude in the trade will work!” guy. Not to be used, but could be fun for the folks in New Orleans. As for Jamaal Magloire … there are reports he will be back soon. We are always skeptical of reports like that. It would be nice for him to get a little in-game action before the offseason, but there’s more risk than anything else involved for the Hornets. For better or worse, he’s their main building block now. It would be nice to see how he interacts on the court with some of these players that the Hornets have to make decisions about in the offseason, which is one reason you might see him on the court. But temper your expectations. Greatly.

New! Updated! Top 20!

Tier One – The Elite.

1. Kevin Garnett, F – OK, I’m sorry, I’m sorry. I know I put KG at number two last month, and maybe I was being a bit rash. But no worries, after putting up 25/14.4/5.6 on 56.5% shooting so far in March, he’s reclaimed the top spot. Sorry.

2. Lebron James, G/F – Whatever his position is on the court, LeBron is definitely no lower than #2 on this list. His non-scoring numbers have taken a hit since the All-Star break, but the fact that he helps you in 7 categories – and is a major plus in points, steals, assists, boards, and FG% - puts him a step above the next few guys.

3. Shawn Marion, SF – Every year, it happens. Marion falls to the second half of the first round of your fantasy draft, and then by the end of the year he’s a top-3 fantasy player. Don’t let it happen next year. He’s the only player who averages over 2 steals and 1 block every game. Add in his double digit rebounds (a first for him this year) and his 1.3 3’s, and there’s no reason he should fall any lower than 5 in next year’s draft.

4. Dirk Nowitzki, F/C – Center eligibility or no center eligibility, Dirk belongs in this tier. His scoring is at a career-high, as are his rebounds, but what’s really impressive has been his ability to get to the charity stripe this year. His 9.3 attempts per game are 7th in the league, and he knocks down over 85% of them. From a F/C, that’s incredible.

Tier Two – The Near Elite

5. Tracy McGrady, GF – The Rockets are on a 5-game winning streak and look to be a lock for the playoffs (and my pick for upset NBA Champion. There, I said it). And the turnaround has been led my Tracy McGrady, who is playing spectacular ball right now. His 29.3/7.5/5.9 so far in March is great, but his 2.3 steals and 1.9 3’s are even better. If only he got more blocks (only 3 in his last 10 games) or shot his free throws better, he’d be in the elite. But he’s a definite step up from the next couple guys on this list.

6. Allen Iverson, G – Yeah I know, this might be a little high, but AI is putting this team on his back right now. He’s #1 on the 30-day player rater. He’s averaging over 30 points AND over 7.5 assists this year. Plus 2.3 steals and 1.3 3’s? Awesome.

Tier Three – The Question Marks

7. Tim Duncan, F/C – You’ve seen me go back and forth on Duncan all year. We’ll let him settle in here on the list, because there’s something about a 20/10/2.5 guy with center eligibility. But there are serious concerns about his back. You’ll just have to ride him out at this point.

8. Kobe Bryant, SG – It’s been a strong March for Kobe, as he’s poured in 32.9 ppg, and knocked down an amazing 64 of his 70 free throws. All that scoring has meant less passing, though, and his health still worries me enough that he lands in the Question Marks tier.

9. Andrei Kirilenko, F – Finally a couple huge games from AK-47, amassing 52 points and 27 boards over his last 2. Unfortunately, these have been the exception to the rule – 15.7 points and 6.6 boards are far less than we had expected from someone who was picked as high as 5th or 6th in some drafts.

10. Jason Kidd, PG – There is nobody that would worry me more than Jason Kidd right now. The Nets are still 4 games out of a playoff spot, and will have to leapfrog Philly and Indiana to make it. Once they’re definitely out of it, Kidd will likely shut it down for the year. But until he does, he will continue to produce big-time. 3.6 steals over his last five? Awesome.

11. Gilbert Arenas, PG – Something just ain’t right with Gil, and it’s probably that knee. But his last 2 games has seen him fall off the charts in rebounds, he isn’t stealing the ball as well, and his shooting has been horrendous. The Curse o’ Les Boulez is lurking.

Tier Four – Solid Slashers

12. Jason Richardson, SG – Very quietly, J-Rich has been putting up a fantastic season out on the left coast. Career-high numbers in points, threes, assists, steals, and FG%. Possibly the best player taken in the 2001 Draft lottery.

13. Ray Allen, SG – His team might be exceeding expectations this year, but Mr. Shuttlesworth is having a down year for sure. Worst rebounds and steals since ’98, worst 3’s since ’99, worst assists since ’02, worst FG% ever.

14. Larry Hughes, SG – Back with a vengeance! Since returning from injury, Hughes has played like he’s got stick-um on his hands, grabbing 3 steals and 7.7 boards a game. With both Jamison and Arenas struggling with injuries, Hughes could have a huge last month.

15. Paul Pierce, SG – He’s been playing great since the return of Antoine Walker. His overall stats are certainly down from last year, but he should continue to play well through the rest of the regular season.

16. Vince Carter, GF – He fought through his first slump as a Net, and maybe he’s better for it. His rebounds since coming to the Nets (6.1) are his best ever, and most of his other stats are the best he’s put up in 3 or 4 years.

Tier Five – Just Ahead of the Pack

17. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, C – I dunno what’s gotten in to this guy, but since the All-Star Break he’s been downright Duncan-esque, with 21.6/10.1 and 3 blocks. He’s going to be a very interesting draft pick next year. He could go as early as the second round, and as late as the 4th.

18. Mike Bibby, PG – No Webber. No Miller. So-so Peja. This is Bibby’s team now, even if it’s by default. And his numbers over his last five (21.4 points, 9.4 assists, 2 steals) suggest that he’s up to the challenge.

19. Dwayne Wade, PG – His improvement over last year has been remarkable. I had put a big red flag on him for this year’s draft, but next year I’ll happily take him at the end of the second round. He’s scoring 7.5 more ppg and dishing out 2.6 more assists than last year. Incredible.

20. Donyell Marshall, F – New rule. If you hit 12 3’s in one game, you get to be in the next New! Updated! Top 20! Enough said.

As the Point Guard Turns

Time for that weekly trip around the league looking at the men who take care of the dishes. Extra helpings of 15 Day Rater this time. Because I’m lazy.

Since the Celtics played the Wizards last night, I got to see the Cs for myself. Man does Gary Payton look old. Best example was when he had a 1-on-1 break against Gilbert Arenas and was hounded into just throwing the ball of the backboard. He’s still putting up halfway decent numbers, but his time is winding down. Meanwhile, Marcus Banks actually looked quite impressive. It helped that he was matched up against Steve Blake, the type of player he can really take advantage of, but he might yet be salvageable. Maybe. The 76ers need to start winning more games if Allen Iverson is to get the MVP votes he deserves. Good to see Jason Kidd bounce back to life with a triple-double. Still, it wasn’t too hard to see that he wouldn’t be able to maintain his ridiculous January pace on one good knee with one good teammate. A very solid week for Rafer Alston. As expected the assists came back just fine, as he averaged 7.3 in his last four. Stephon Marbury’s at #17 on the 15 Day Rater. He’s at #15 for the year, so I guess it’s nothing to get all that excited about. I bet that just like in real life, he’s not on too many fantasy championship squads.

That 47 minutes from Chauncey Billups came in a double-OT game. It’s safe to say now that Carlos Arroyo’s emergence as a dependable backup has hurt Chauncey. He’s #96 in the past 15. He’s better than that, but bump him down a round or two next year. Jeff McInnis continues to struggle. The forgotten Eric Snow is starting to cut into his time. If you need to cut bait, do it. This late in the season you need effective games every night. That’s more like it, Kirk Hinrich. He’s seen 40+ in his last four and is racking up the 3s (2pg), steals (2.5pg) and assists (6.5pg). That’s what you want from a point guard. Chris Duhon 15 Day Rater check: #126. Hey, it’s only one spot worse than Luke Ridnour. The Fred Jones as point guard era sure didn’t last long. It’s back to Anthony Johnson for the Pacers. He’s been getting plenty of assists, and is fine to use if you need to make up the games, but he’s still not a great option. I feel like I’ve been saying this for 5 weeks now. The rumors that Jamaal Tinsley was spotted with Tupac and the guy from Manic Street Preachers are unconfirmed as of this moment. Mo Williams 15 Day Rater check: #16. That’s some sweetness. Because the Bucks are likely to bring in a somewhat capable backup, don’t go crazy on him next year.

Damon Jones has remained pretty quiet. He’s hitting 3s, but not giving you much else anywhere else. Gilbert Arenas 15 Day Rater check: #23, right below Larry Hughes at #22. Gilbert’s knee is bothering him and can be seen by his truly woeful shooting as of late, 35% on 20 shots per game in March. Ouch. Jameer Nelson 15 Day Rater check: #43. Steve Francis? #51. Days until Orlando falls out of the playoffs? Nine. Brevin Knight sure does love to have his monstrous games once in a while. 21 and 17 with 4 steals after missing nearly four games? Hello! And goodbye to Jason Hart. We’ll see you in 7 to 10 days. Yes, Tyronn Lue is at #37 on the 15 Day Rater. New FBB trend – pick up whoever plays point guard for the Hawks in the final third of the season.

Too bad Tony Parker got banged up. He’s been playing well, but as is often the case with him, he’s not quite as valuable as he seems, at #61 on the 15DR. FT% does count, after all. The Spurs will take it easy with all of their players this last month. The Jason Terry rollercoaster continues, with consecutive monster games. Just keep him in the lineup, good lord. He’s #31 on the overall rater this year. And that’s in 29.4 mpg. The guy’s just a top fantasy player. It looked like the Mike James lovefest was over, but hopefully you didn’t cut bait just yet. Bob Sura is rustier than, um, Rusty LaRue, and in two games off the bench James has been good for 17/1.5/5 with 2.5 3s. Still, there’s a big difference between 35 mpg and 25 mpg. Proceed with caution. Ugh. Jason Williams goes down and Earl Watson follows him. That’s not cool. Watson has damaged teeth; Williams has a sprained ankle. Who do you think will be back first? Watson could be in for a decent couple of games. You know what he’s capable of with J-Will out. Dan Dickau saw 31 minutes and had his best game in almost two weeks. But Speedy Claxton has been doing just enough to make Dickau a bit too frustrating to use. I cut bait last week and I don’t feel too bad about it.

It had been three out of four good ones for Luke Ridnour before his latest stinker. There’s really not much separating him from Anthony Johnson right now. Besides points, Andre Miller is putting up his usual numbers. You’d still like those five points back, though. I almost picked up Sam Cassell this morning. Then I punched myself in the neck. I deserved it. Sebastian Telfair sure isn’t starved for minutes, with 36.5 in his last four. He’s playing as expected; strong assists (6.8) and steals (1.5) but brutal shooting (40%) and no 3s. Not bad for a 19-year old, I suppose. Keith McLeod is due for his weekly 18-point/8-assist game within the next couple. See if you can guess which one it will be!

You ever notice how Steve Nash gets lots of assists? That is all he’s doing right now, though. He’s no better than 0.34 in any other category on the 15DR. The departure/injury of a star player always means bigger numbers for those who stick around. But there comes a point where it could become a hindrance. With both Chris Webber and Brad Miller out of the picture, we could be seeing that time for Mike Bibby. His FG% in March is his lowest of the season. But whatever. He’s still The Man. It’s games like Saturday’s 26 and 6 with 6 3s that make you leave Chucky Atkins in the lineup. It’s all Kobe all the time now, but usually one other person per game will step up. He’s still #53 on the 15DR. Ah, Marko Jaric. You make it so easy to keep you on the Eddie Griffin Memorial Never Again List. Rick Brunson gets yet another reprieve. He’s been one of the best assist men lately, but still nothing more than roster filler. It’s just about time for Baron Davis to step into the starting lineup. When he does, he will probably put up his usual studly numbers. Do not let this fool you into taking him in the first four rounds next year. Read those last few sentences again. A few times. Yes, this is for my own good.

Weekend Review

For the first time since I can remember, Selection Sunday came and went and I really couldn’t have cared less. Rather than watching the Big Ten or ACC Finals, I was busy peeking in on Dallas/Minnesota and Houston/Sacramento. I’m not sure what that says about me, but keep this in mind – the NCAA Tournament is a great chance for you to sneak in and make some great pickups while everyone else is distracted by opening weekend. Remember, no matter how much studying and thinking you do regarding the NCAA Tourney, you’ve got no chance. None. Zero. Okay? Good. Now on to Fantasy Basketball…

FBB Roadtrip!

That’s right, I was out of town on “business” Thursday and Friday. I know, you’re shocked that FBB doesn’t provide enough income on it’s own, but it doesn’t. Anyhow, I was able to take advantage of being in lovely Philadelphia by going to the Sixers/Bobcats game on Friday night. It wasn’t much of a game. After keeping it tied after one quarter, the Bobcats seemingly gave up. The Sixers opened the second with a 19-2 run, and never looked back, winning 112-80. With most starters resting in the 4th quarter, the game did not really provide all that much fantasy insight. But a couple of things did strike me:

Allen Iverson is one of the best passers in the NBA. A lot of guys rack up assists by passing to a guy on the perimeter who knocks down a jumper. Not AI. At least 3, maybe 4 of his 12 assists that night were on spectacular alley-oops. A couple more were thread-the-needle passes to cutting teammates. A very impressive evening from AI, and I think he’ll be running the point for years to come in Philly.

Kyle Korver could be worth drafting in the middle rounds next year. His repartee with Iverson is great. One thing that Iverson’s never really had is that knockdown 3-point shooter. Other than Iverson, Aaron McKie – he of the .352 career 3pt% - has been the leading three-point shooter on the squad for most of the past 5 years. Now with Iverson playing the point, he’s doing more driving and kicking out, which means more 3’s for Korver. Plus, he’s a huge fan favorite in Philly.

Emeka Okafor is the only Bobcat worth playing every single night. The rest will simply not get the minutes to be effective. Primoz Brezec, Marvin Ely and Malik Allen overload the frontcourt, and even with Brevin Knight out, Jason Hart played only 21 minutes in the game. Maybe next year, Charlotte.

Miller? Damn near killed her!

Well I guess this is why you trade Webber for 3 decent bigs. With Brad Miller out for what is likely the rest of the regular season, all the Kings horses and all the Kings men are going to see a significant bump in stats. Brian Skinner has averaged 10.9/10.6 with 2.7 blocks in 34.4 minutes since taking over for Miller, and will be a decent starter at center over the rest of the year. The Big Three of Peja, Cuttino Mobley and Mike Bibby will be counted on for the majority of the scoring, as evidenced by the fact that they took 61% of their team’s shots in their loss to Houston on Sunday. Something tells me that Peja still isn’t healthy, as evidenced by his horrendous line on Friday. In 38 minutes, he had 6 points, 1 board, 1 assist, no steals, no blocks, and shot 2-10 from the field. This, from a first-round pick in most leagues this year, with no Brad Miller or Webber in the lineup? He may have recovered somewhat on Sunday, but keep an eye of this situation.

Miller? Damn near killed her! Part 2

Reggie Miller isn’t done producing just yet. Sure he’s 39 years old and still possibly the skinniest player in league history, and sure he gets banged around a lot, but Reggie just keeps coming back. And how! Over his last 5, he’s averaged 21.4 points, with 1.6 3’s and 97.1 FT%. Yes, those are the only categories he’ll ever help you in, but if you need help in those categories, by all means go get him if he’s available.