(For rounds one, two and three, just scroll down)

Players already on the team are in parentheses.

Team L: C. Webber (B. Simmons, J. Richardson, L. Odom, B. Miller , G. Arenas)
Team K: Q. Richardson (S. Dalembert, L. Hughes, P. Gasol, P. Pierce, A. Iverson)
Team J: A. Jamison (T. Chandler, Z. Ilgauskas, C. Billups, V. Carter, D. Wade)
Team I: C. Anthony (R. Hamilton, R. Lewis, J. Johnson, J. Kidd, A. Kirilenko)
Team H: A. Walker (R. Alston, M. Redd, D. Howard, S. Nash, T. Duncan)
Team G: A. Bogut (K. Martin, K. Hinrich, S. Francis, E. Brand, K. Bryant)
Team F: J. Williams (C. Boozer, R. Jefferson, M. Ginobili, M. Bibby, A. Stoudamire)
Team E: C. Paul (C. Mobley, A. Miller, B. Wallace, J. O’Neal, T. McGrady)
Team D: D. Williams (Z. Randolph, M. Camby, C. Bosh, S. Marbury, S. Marion)
Team C: D. Marshall (C. Maggette, A. Iguodala, B. Davis, Y. Ming, D. Nowitzki)
Team B: T. Parker (R. Wallace, E. Okafor, R. Artest, S. O’Neal, L. James)
Team A: S. Swift (J. Magloire, J. Terry, R. Allen, P. Stojakovic, K. Garnett)

So here we are. The sixth round – the final round of our mock draft. Why six? Well, as you can see, somewhere around the middle of the sixth round is where the draft can go in a million different directions. Some of the guys we picked near the end of the round – Deron Williams, for example, or Donyell Marshall – could very easily go in the eighth round, or later. At this point is all a matter of the people in your league. The first few rounds are pretty easy to forecast. By the sixth, the point of a mock draft – mapping out where you think folks will go in the draft – becomes a lot of guesswork. Of course, we have our personal late-round favorites, and we’ll disclose those to you in the next few weeks.

Anyhow, let’s see what happens in our sixth round. We see another tier split somewhere around Antoine Walker, Andrew Bogut and White Chocolate. For those of you counting at home (or, more likely, at work), we put the tier-endings at the following picks: 2, 9, 31, 44, and 65. We’ll go into more detailed position-specific tiers and rankings next week. So the beginning of the round is spent taking the last few solid, almost-sure-thing contributors on the board, and the end of the round is either spent on high-risk high-reward players like Marshall and Swift, or probably-pretty-good players like Chris Paul and Tony Parker.

After 6 rounds, I think that really the best 2 picks to have are 1 and 2, which doesn’t happen often, but that huge third tier really puts them at an advantage. The worst spots? Probably at the back of the draft, picks 10-12. They don’t get any “top” players, and those early picks in the second, fourth and six rounds don’t really make up for that fact.

So there you have it – the 2005 Fantasy Basketblog Mock Draft.

(For rounds one, two and three, just scroll down)

Players already on the team are in parentheses.

Team A: Jamaal Magloire (J. Terry, R. Allen, P. Stojakovic, K. Garnett)
Team B: Rasheed Wallace (E. Okafor, R. Artest, S. O’Neal, L. James)
Team C: Corey Maggette (A. Iguodala, B. Davis, Y. Ming, D. Nowitzki)
Team D: Zack Randolph (M. Camby, C. Bosh, S. Marbury, S. Marion)
Team E: Cuttino Mobley (A. Miller, B. Wallace, J. O’Neal, T. McGrady)
Team F: Carlos Boozer (R. Jefferson, M. Ginobili, M. Bibby, A. Stoudamire)
Team G: Kenyon Martin (K. Hinrich, S. Francis, E. Brand, K. Bryant)
Team H: Rafer Alston (M. Redd, D. Howard, S. Nash, T. Duncan)
Team I: Rip Hamilton (R. Lewis, J. Johnson, J. Kidd, A. Kirilenko)
Team J: Tyson Chandler (Z. Ilgauskas, C. Billups, V. Carter, D. Wade)
Team K: Samuel Dalembert (L. Hughes, P. Gasol, P. Pierce, A. Iverson)
Team L: Bobby Simmons (J. Richardson, L. Odom, B. Miller , G. Arenas)

In the fifth round, for the first time since round two, we run into 12 players who are all in the same tier in our overall rankings (we’ll get to our overall rankings at some point in early October). This is the last round of the draft where you are drafting a player who will unquestionably be on a roster all year long. Starting in the sixth round, you’ll hear some names that at least have a chance of ending up on the waiver wires. But not here. Everyone here should be getting at least 30 mpg, and will make real contributions to your team.

Because everyone here was in a similar tier, the selections this round really took into account team needs more than player ability. If after five rounds, you’re lacking at either of the scarcity positions, you could be in serious trouble. And as we see here, only 2 teams are left without a center (Teams G and I). Only one has no PG, but they do have LeBron James, who will contribute to assists like a PG would. Put yourself in the position of the two teams with no center as yet. Particularly in leagues like this one where teams are required to start two centers, you’re going to have to either pass up greater talent to select a center in the next few rounds or stick a couple of bums in the starting lineup every day. Neither option is particularly appealing. This is where the “Best Player Available” strategy can handcuff you.

Tomorrow we’ll take a look at Round 6, the last round we did for this mock draft. But before we do, anyone have any major disagreements with selections we’ve made?

(For rounds one, two and three, just scroll down)

Players already on the team are in parentheses.

Team L: Jason Richardson (Lamar Odom, Gilbert Arenas, Brad Miller)
Team K: Larry Hughes (Pau Gasol, Allen Iverson, Paul Pierce)
Team J: Zydraunas Ilgauskas (Chauncey Billups, Dwayne Wade, Vince Carter)
Team I: Rashard Lewis (Joe Johnson, Andrei Kirilenko, Jason Kidd)
Team H: Michael Redd (Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan, Steve Nash)
Team G: Kirk Hinrich (Steve Francis, Kobe Bryant, Elton Brand)
Team F: Richard Jefferson (Manu Ginobili, Amare Soudamire, Mike Bibby)
Team E: Andre Miller (Ben Wallace, Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O’Neal)
Team D: Marcus Camby (Chris Bosh, Shawn Marion, Stephon Marbury)
Team C: Andre Iguodala (Baron Davis, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming)
Team B: Emeka Okafor (Ron Artest, Lebron James, Shaquille O’Neal)
Team A: Jason Terry (Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Peja Stojakovic)

In round four of our mock draft, we’re seeing basically an extension of round three. With only about one round left of “solid” players (more on that later in the week), your goal in the fourth has to be to start setting yourself up for the later rounds. You want to be worried about team needs, but at the same time, you want to be able to take the best player available (BPA). There’s nothing worse than really stretching for a guy this early just because your team is really lacking in a category so far. So what you’ll see happening in our mock draft is that teams are settling for someone who at least comes close to qualifying as a team need and a BPA.

The fourth round, perhaps more than any other, is where your draft preparation will really come into play. If you’ve ranked players about 50 or 60 deep, it will make your fourth round much earlier. All you have to do is take your draft sheet, identify the 4 or 5 highest-ranked players, and then choose the one among those who best serves your needs. Take, for example, Team H. The top available players there (according to our lists) were Redd, Hinrich, Jefferson, and Miller. We would have those guys ranked with Jefferson first, then Hinrich, followed by Redd and Miller. However, we felt like this team needed some scoring punch, as it’s possible that neither Dwight Howard nor Steve Nash will put up 16 ppg this year. The highest scoring player among our BPA’s was Michael Redd, so he was the choice there, despite the fact that we had ranked Jefferson and Hinrich ahead of him.

So, what teams do you think look the best so far?

(For rounds one and two, check the previous post)

Players already on the team are in parentheses.

Team A: Ray Allen (Kevin Garnett, Peja Stojakovic)
Team B: Ron Artest (Lebron James, Shaquille O’Neal)
Team C: Baron Davis (Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming)
Team D: Chris Bosh (Shawn Marion, Stephon Marbury)
Team E: Ben Wallace (Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O’Neal)
Team F: Manu Ginobili (Amare Soudamire, Mike Bibby)
Team G: Steve Francis (Kobe Bryant, Elton Brand)
Team H: Dwight Howard (Tim Duncan, Steve Nash)
Team I: Joe Johnson (Andrei Kirilenko, Jason Kidd)
Team J: Chauncey Billups (Dwayne Wade, Vince Carter)
Team K: Pau Gasol (Allen Iverson, Paul Pierce)
Team L: Lamar Odom (Gilbert Arenas, Brad Miller)

Round three of our mock draft is arguably the most important round. The first two rounds have put the top talent on your team. The third and fourth rounds will dictate how the rest of your draft will go. A team that is weak in a category after two rounds might be a coincidence. A team that is still weak in those categories after three rounds is a problem. Take, for example, the case of team J, who after three rounds has maybe 1.5 blocks per game to his name. He will need to reach for size at some point in the draft – maybe not in round four, but in the middle rounds he will certainly have to take someone whose strength is blocks, perhaps well before he should be drafted. You don’t want to be put in the position of having to consider drafting Adonal Foyle or Theo Ratliff. Making the right moves here will save you from that fate.

The other important thing to note is that in the third round, we see the end of the third tier of players. DM and I agreed that this drop happens right around where Steve Francis was drafted in our mock. The drop from him to Dwight Howard is pretty significant. While you can make arguments that maybe Joe Johnson or Lamar Odom belong in that third tier, everyone taken after Francis at least makes you hesitate before you pick them.

So after three rounds, which teams look best? I think Team A looks pretty strong, with three players who could have been first round picks last year, as well as the best overall player in the game. Team B certainly has a ton of upside, but after LeBron he took two major question marks. Teams picking in the second half of the first round certainly appear a lot weaker than the teams with earlier picks. The teams with the earlier picks not only got their pick of the top tiers, but also got two of the third tier players. This might even out over the next couple of rounds – we’ll see later this week. Tomorrow, the fourth round.

Is it ever really too early to do a mock draft? Absolutely not. Especially with training camp starting next week, and the season only about a month away. So what we’re going to do is spend this week going through a mini-mock draft. Today we’ll do rounds one and two, and we’ll do one round a day for the rest of the week. After six rounds, it’s really far too early to tell who’s going to go where. But hopefully we’ll give you an idea of how you can expect the first few rounds to shake out, so you can start targeting certain players.

Here are the rules we’re going by. It’s a 12-team league, with PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, Util, Util as the positions. We’re also trading off picks by team – so if I pick for a team one round, then DM picks for that team the next round, so that the teams aren’t necessarily shaped by just one person’s views. Pretty simple, right? Anyhow, let’s get started with the first two rounds:

Round One

Team A: Kevin Garnett
Team B: LeBron James
Team C: Dirk Nowitzki
Team D: Shawn Marion
Team E: Tracy McGrady
Team F: Amare Stoudamire
Team G: Kobe Bryant
Team H: Tim Duncan
Team I: Andrei Kirilenko
Team J: Dwayne Wade
Team K: Allen Iverson
Team L: Gilbert Arenas

The first round went – pretty much – right down the list of our overall player rankings. There are two pretty big drops in the first round, from pick two to pick three, and from pick nine to pick ten. KG and LBJ are the unquestioned top two, especially with Nowitzki no longer qualifying at center. At three, though, you could make an argument foe Dirk, Marion, McGrady, Stoudamire, or maybe even Kobe or Tim Duncan. After Kirilenko was a clear cut choice to us at nine, we really felt there was another drop-off at ten, where Wade was a decent choice but really there are 5 to 7 players who could all be a possibility there.

Round Two (Players already on team in parentheses)
Team L: Brad Miller (Gilbert Arenas)
Team K: Paul Pierce (Allen Iverson)
Team J: Vince Carter (Dwayne Wade)
Team I: Jason Kidd (Andrei Kirilenko)
Team H: Steve Nash (Tim Duncan)
Team G: Elton Brand (Kobe Bryant)
Team F: Mike Bibby (Amare Stoudamire)
Team E: Jermaine O’Neal (Tracy McGrady)
Team D: Stephon Marbury (Shawn Marion)
Team C: Yao Ming (Dirk Nowitzki)
Team B: Shaquille O’Neal (LeBron James)
Team A: Peja Stojakovic (Kevin Garnett)

In the second round, we started to drift away from our overall rankings. As much as we like to preach the idea of taking the best available player in the first few rounds of the draft, sometimes you just can’t. For example, for team H, was Steve Nash really the best player on the board? Probably not. We had ranked Elton Brand ahead of Nash, but with Tim Duncan already on the team, Nash was just a better complement than Brand. Granted, we didn’t have to go very far down our board to find a nice #2 man for Duncan, but nonetheless we strayed from the “draft the best player” strategy.

By the end of round two, all of the top players at the scarcity positions – PG and C – should be off the board. We all know that Shaq is gonna kill your FT% and miss some time, but still, he shouldn’t slip to the third round. One thing to note about the second round is that there was never a huge talent drop. Really, Peja Stojakovic has just as much potential this year as Paul Pierce does. It’s also interesting to note that almost every player here was at one point in their careers a first-round fantasy pick, with a few exceptions. Tomorrow – Round Three.

One game away from making the NBA Finals, and Pat Riley goes out and completely makes over his team. The mega-trade that brought Antoine Walker, James Posey and Jason Williams in exchange for Eddie Jones was a no-brainer from a talent perspective, but Walker and Williams obviously have reputations that precede them. This influx of talent could create fantasy headaches, as it remains to be seen if there are stats to go around for everyone.

The Stud: Dwyane Wade, G
If there’s one guy who you can be sure will put up his numbers, it’s The Flash. Yes, his assists will go down now that the team brought in a true point guard in Williams and he’s not much of a threat from outside. It’s easy to overlook the 1.1 blocks he had last year, but coming from a guard spot, that’s a huge plus. He’s also an accurate, high-volume shooter who gets his fair share of steals. He does have a tendency to get banged up, and any time a team is this deep, it makes it easier to take a couple of games off, but he should be off the board by the early second round at the absolute latest, and deservedly so.

The Support: Shaquille O’Neal, C
Yes, Shaq is the support. It’s just about a forgone conclusion that he will miss at least 10 games; he missed nine last year, 15 each of the three previous years. You have to think that one of the main reasons the Heat brought so much talent on board was to make sure Shaq could take it easy during the regular season. If he needs to take some games off, that’s fine, there will be plenty of people to pick up the slack. The Heat, like the Spurs, are built for at least a 100 game season. The free throw problems are well-documented and in bigger leagues that can really hurt. Fantasy is all about numbers, and the numbers say he was the 37^th best player last year. Being a center obviously counts for a lot, but I don’t even think about Shaq until the third round, meaning he won’t be on my team.

The Supporting Support: Jason Williams, PG
J-Will escapes the fantasy hell of Memphis, but comes to a team that’s just as loaded and this time with actual stars. Still, getting to start at point guard in a lineup with Shaq and Dwyane should give him nice value. The Gary Payton signing could lead to trouble, since Payton has never proven to be someone to just sit there and take a reduced role. If Williams can average 7 assists and 1.5 3s – which are quite reasonable totals – he’ll make a fine second point guard to take in the mid-rounds.

The Sleeper: James Posey, GF
Walker and Williams got most of the ink, but Posey is also someone to remember. In 2003-2004 he averaged 1.4 3pg and 1.7 spg in just under 30 mpg. He was injured for much of last year and never really got into the groove, as evidenced by his scary 36% shooting. He doesn’t find himself in the most ideal situation rotation-wise, but there’s a chance he could crack the starting lineup and if he does, that combo of 3s and steals could prove quite valuable.

The Slacker: Antione Walker, F
It was just two years ago that people were asking how Walker would fare in a situation where he wouldn’t be the focal point of the offense. He responded in Dallas by putting up a very solid 14.0/8.3/4.5 line. Certainly among the lowest totals of his career, but he wasn’t a total disaster. Point being, his counting stats won’t completely fall off the charts. But those percentages… He actually got his FG% up to an almost respectable 44% last year, but three straight seasons at 55% or less from the line is just ugly. The only way he offsets that is by racking up the 3s, but after three straight seasons of averaging at least 2.4 per game, he hasn’t even hit 1.5 either of the past two years.

Just welcoming Ron Artest back would have made it an excellent offseason for the Pacers, but they were also able to add Sarunas Jasikevicius and rookie Danny Granger. The Pacers may have the strongest 1 through 12 in the league, which is great for them but has the potential to pose some problems to fantasy owners.

The Stud: Jermaine O’Neal, PF
There’s no question O’Neal is a superstar, but he’s simply not first-round material. His shoulder problems surely contributed to his 2.0 blocks last year, his lowest since coming to Indiana. That number is still a big plus, but outside of that he’s a points/rebounds guy. Unless he can get his FG% back to its levels from the 2002-2003 season and before, he’s barely a second rounder given his loss of center eligibility.

The Support: Ron Artest, SF
We’re not psychiatrists, so we can’t tell you how he’ll behave. You’d like to think that it was a wake-up call, but it’s not like he’s earned the benefit of the doubt. We do know that for the first seven games of last season – and admittedly small sample – Artest was one of the most valuable players in the league. And that was while averaging just 1.7 spg, well below what he’s done each season of his career, except his rookie year. Lots of that value was tied up in his 92% FT shooting, 20% higher than his career average, so be wary of that. Give him his career FT% and that would put him down to the 14-16 range. Production-wise, he should be a second rounder. You’re a brave – but not stupid – person to take him there.

The Supporting Support: Stephen Jackson, GF
Jackson is always worthy of a fantasy roster spot, but it’s his FG% that keeps him from being a real asset. His 40% shooting on 16 shots per game can really do damage, but he does his best to make up for it 2 3s and a decent helping of steals. He’s a perfectly fine mid-round selection.

The Sleeper: Sarunjas Jasikevicius, G
We don’t have any numbers to throw out at you, but Chad Ford loves the guy and he’s never wrong about players coming over from Europe. Er, yeah. He’ll start off behind Jamaal Tinsley on the depth chart, but if there’s one thing we know about Tinsley it’s that he refuses to stay healthy. Anthony Johnson is still around and played quite well last year, but Jasikevicius wasn’t brought over to sit if an injury occurs.

The Slacker: Jamaal Tinsley, PG
I was all about Tinsley last pre-season because of his crucial combination of 3s, steals and assists. After the brawl fallout, when he was left as one of the team’s only real offensive options, I looked like a genius. In December he put up an 18.8/3.8/6.8 line with 2.0 steals and 1.4 3s. But he just couldn’t stay healthy, and it was one of those amazingly frustrating injuries where he seemed to constantly be on the verge of coming back, only to remain out. Anthony Johnson filled in admirably, and now Jasikevicius is on board, so even if he does avoid the IL, he might not be able to provide much to fantasy owners.

As expected, Antione Walker and Gary Payton left during the offseason, giving the Celtics an incredibly young team for 2004-2005. They will be relying on a whole lot of players with less than three years of NBA experience, which could create some new fantasy options, or it could mean that the vets will be even more valuable.

The Stud: Paul Pierce, SG
After a three-year stretch where it looked like he was on the verge of being one of the truly dominant players in the league, Pierce has had two straight down seasons. But last year really wasn’t all that bad. Sure, his scoring was the lowest it’s been since the 99-00 season, but all of his other numbers stayed relatively steady and he was able to shoot 45.5%, way up from 40.2% the previous season. It’s unlikely he’ll be able to keep that whole gain, but Pierce is an unquestioned first option superstar who has missed just five games over the past five seasons. There’s a lot to be said for a player like that. There’s a good chance he’ll slip to the second round, where he’ll give the owner that snags him a fantastic one-two punch.

The Support: Ricky Davis, GF
Even though he only started 11 games last year, Davis was able to be a consistent contributor. He’s one of the most accurate shooting swingmen around, which helps offset his unexciting rebound, assist and steal totals. You know that he’s one of those players who is always looking out for his stat line, which is something fantasy players have to love. And it looks like he should be in the starting lineup this year, which is another reason to get excited. In 11 starts last year, Davis averaged 17.1/3.8/2.2 with 1.4 steals. He quietly finished 65^th on the player rater last year (he’s another player who is quite durable) and should make a solid mid-round pick.

The Supporting Support: Raef Lafrentz, FC
He had plenty of doubters after appearing in only 17 games in 2003-2004, but Lafrentz stayed healthy, appearing in 80 games and finishing in the top 50 of the player rater. The numbers don’t really jump out at you – he didn’t get 2.5 blocks per game like he did a few years ago – but 11.1/6.9/1.2 with 1.0 3s, 1.2 blocks, 0.5 steals, 50% and 81% is about as well-rounded as it comes for a center. If he feels more comfortable in his second year removed from surgery and can improve on his 27.5 mpg, he could see a bump in his numbers. But he seems just as likely to miss a significant number of games.

The Sleeper: Al Jefferson, PF
OK, so Jefferson’s probably not too deep a sleeper. But considering what he’s shown, you probably shouldn’t consider him too much more. He flashed plenty of potential last year, but remember that he’s a player who has yet to even appear in a game for more than 30 minutes. He’s also a sure bet to be a non-factor in assists and 3s, and he shot 63% from the line last year. If he blocks lots of shots and continues to hit 53% from the field, there’s a lot to like. But there’s usually someone in every league who likes to gamble a round or two early on guys like this with high upside, and usually you’re better off letting that person grab him.

The Slacker: Mark Blount, C
Who else? Actually, Blount wasn’t all that terrible last year. He wasn’t anywhere close to his second half surge of 2003-2004, but that’s your own fault if you thought he was going to do that again. His refusal to grab a rebound or block a shot was obviously frustrating, but at least he hit 53% of his shots. Still, expected to come off the bench this year, he’s not someone to draft.

Perhaps no team has gone through such a big an overhaul over the last twelve months as the Sacramento Kings. However, they have continued to win at a pretty phenomenal rate, albeit only during the regular season. For all the minor (and major) tinkering they’ve done, though, they still have held onto the core of Mike Bibby, Peja Stojakovic, and Brad Miller. How newcomers like Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Bonzi Wells and rookie Francisco Garcia fill the voids left by Chris Webber et al. remains to be seen. But we can take a guess:

The Stud: Mike Bibby, PG
Often the third or even fourth King chosen in recent fantasy drafts, this year Bibby will contend with Peja and Miller for the top spot, and we think he deserves to be taken before any of his teammates. Last year saw him score at a career-high rate of 19.6 ppg, and he improved his assists to nearly seven per game. His three’s and steals are good enough to make him a top point guard, and while his FT% is slightly lacking, his FG% is pretty strong for a PG.

The Support: Brad Miller, C
Miller’s second season in Sacramento was not all that different from his first. He’s a solid center, who will help in points, boards, and blocks, while shooting exceptionally well from the stripe for a center. Oh yeah, and then there’s those assists. His 4 assists (or so) per game will allow you to choose a PG like Chauncey Billups or Jason Terry later in the draft, without worrying about a slightly lower than average assists contribution from the point.

The Supporting Support: Peja Stojakovic, SF
After a spectacular 2003 season which saw him slip into the top ten of many drafts last year, Peja went through a number of serious slumps and injuries to put together a very average (for him) 2004. He’s still worth a second round pick, but his inflated value last year has now come back to earth.

The Sleeper: Bonzi Wells, SG
Finally released from the fantasy hell of Memphis, Wells has an opportunity in Sacramento to relive his 2001 season where he scored 17 ppg and grabbed 6 rpg. What’s more, his per-minute steals and threes have improved since then, so should he reach the 35 mpg he could receive in Sacramento, he will be a steal late in the draft, a sort of Bobby Simmons clone.

The Slacker: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, F
We’re officially not sold on Shareef Abdur-Rahim. He’s going to be contending for playing time with Kenny Thomas and Corliss Williamson, he’s missed significant time with injuries in each of the last three years, and he’ll be no better than the fourth option on this team. Someone will take him in the 4th or 5th round, but it shouldn’t be you. He’s got no better than 6th or 7th round value this year, at best.

What looked like it could be a disastrous off-season for (our beloved) Wizards actually turned out quite nicely, thank you very much. The departure of Larry Hughes stings, no doubt, but that sure was just too much money to give him, and the three-headed monster of Caron Butler, Antonio Daniels and Chucky Atkins should adequately replace him. The team didn’t address its need for a big man (Calvin Booth doesn’t count), but the Wiz should be able to maintain their gains they made last year, if not necessarily improve.

The Stud: Gilbert Arenas, PG
I’ll admit off the bat to throwing objectivity out the window when talking about Gil. He’s my favorite player in the league and I’ve got a brand new throwback jersey that I’m ready to sport at home games this year. Even so, we can all agree that he’s a fantasy stud. After an injury-marred first season in Washington, Gilbert took it to another level last year and should be entering an extended prime. He finished the season at #7 on the player rater, and with Hughes gone, it’s his team now. Check out Gilbert’s numbers when Hughes missed 20 games with a broken wrist last year: 29.2/6.0/6.0 with 2.8 3s and 2.4 steals. There are more talented players to pick up the slack this time, but expect a very pre-PG Iverson type year for Gil, with a few more 3s and a few less steals. Count on him to average at least 40 mpg, which will keep his numbers up. He’s not a top-5 pick, but anything after that would be reasonable.

The Support: Antawn Jamison, F
After four straight seasons of not missing a game, Jamison missed 14 last year with knee problems. He had surgery to correct it, but this is the type of injury that can linger and should make you wary of drafting someone who’s strengths are points and rebounds. He shot just 44% last year, the lowest of his career, but he did have his best year in terms of 3s. Jamison is the perfect example of a player with name recognition that doesn’t match his fantasy value. If he’s healthy, he’s as steady as they come, but he’s just a mid-round pick.

The Supporting Support: Caron Butler, SF
Those numbers over the last 16 games of the season were quite nice: 21.8/7.1/2.9. But the big number was the 2.4 steals over that span. In his impressive rookie season, Butler averaged 1.8 spg, and if he could match that number, he will be a very valuable fantasy contributor even if he doesn’t score 20 ppg. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts to his third team in four seasons, as we saw that it took him a while to hit his stride last year in L.A. There’s a very good chance that he will end up being more valuable than Jamison.

The Sleeper: Brendan Haywood, C
It’s been slow going, but Haywood may be ready to be a legit fantasy option this year. He’s shown steady improvement each season, but actually looked like he belonged much of last year. The big question is how much playing time he’ll receive. Even if he stays at last year’s pace, but ups his PT from 27.4 mpg to 33.5 mpg, you’re looking at a line of 11.6 and 8.4 with 2.1 bpg. Combine that with the fact that he shot 56% and you have a perfectly serviceable center. But if he has mental lapses, Calvin Booth, Etan Thomas and Michael Ruffin will be there to take his time.

The Slacker: Jarvis Hayes, SF
Hayes looks to be the likely starter along with Butler at the 2 and the 3, but that doesn’t mean you want any part of him. In his two years in the league, Hayes has yet to show the ability to stay healthy or be a worthy fantasy player. For a player whose main strength is supposed to be shooting, his 39.5% career FG% is wholly unimpressive, and he’s more of a long-twos guy (like Rip Hamilton) than a long-range guy.