Archive for September, 2005
Offseason Overview: Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers spent a whole lot of money to keep a 43-39 team in tact. Possible off-season squabbling between AI and Chris Webber never materialized, but you know the city of Philly loves its internal feuds, and this one seems bound to happen. Aaaron McKie and Willie Greene won’t be around, which means AI might actually play 48 mpg this season.

The Stud: Allen Iverson, PG
Well that sure went better than anyone could have expected. Shifting to the point, AI not only set a career-high with 8.0 apg (fifth in the league), but he averaged 30.7 ppg (highest in three seasons), had his best shooting year in seven seasons, and finished second in the league in steals. He missed seven games, which is on the good side of what you’d expect from him, but he never takes a game or two to get back into the swing of things. If he’s playing, he will put up his numbers. He was fifth on the Player Rater last year, but it might be tough to expect him to sustain all the gains he made last year and stay as healthy. Still a super-solid second round pick.

The Support: Andre Igoudala, GF
Ladies and gentlemen (er, more likely just gentlemen), Shawn Marion-lite. Don’t let that 9.0 ppg scare you. That number will only go up and it didn’t prevent him from finishing 42nd on the Player Rater. He averaged 1.7 spg in just 32.8 mpg, and should perennially among the league leaders for years to come. Igoudala isn’t likely to start averaging 20 ppg any time soon, but a simple increase in minutes from 33 to 38, plus the normal gains made in his second year could be enough to make him a Top 25 player.

The Supporting Support: Samuel Dalembert, C
Those who drafted Dalembert early last year based on his monster April 2004 probably got frustrated and traded or released him and weren’t able to enjoy his solid second half. His final numbers from last year are almost identical to those from the year before – save a disturbing drop in blocks from 2.3 to 1.7 – so it doesn’t look like much progress was made, but after an impressive performance in the playoffs and a huge, huge, huge contract, he seems to be settling in. It’s quite possible he’ll be overrated again, but the fact that he could lead the league in blocks gives him plenty of value.

The Sleeper: Stephen Hunter, FC
Who’s to say that Hunter couldn’t put up the numbers Dalembert can? Check out their 40-minute averages from last year:
Dalembert – 13.2/12.1/0.8, 2.7 blocks on 52% shooting
Hunter – 13.3/8.7/0.5, 3.9 blocks on 61% shooting
61% shooting?! OK, he’s unlikely to do that again, but should Dalembert get injured or struggle out of the gate again, Hunter could be a solid contributor.

The Slacker: Chris Webber, PF
Oh, like you expected anyone else. You can’t help a team if you aren’t playing. That was — and still is — the big knock on Webber, but his performance in 21 gamse with the Sixers gave little indication he’d be able to help even when playing. His 15.6/7.9/3.1 on 39% shooting was just pathetic. It should be better — perhaps even considerably better — but he’s just a mid-rounder now.

Offseason Overview: Orlando Magic

Remember the beginning of last season when the Magic got off to a nice start and the Rockets were struggling and people were praising John Weisbrod for the T-Mac/Francis trade? Yeah, neither do most people, for good reason. Despite a successful return from Grant Hill and the solid play of rookie Dwight Howard, it was a pretty ugly season in Orlando. Unless Howard becomes a superstar rather quickly, it’s hard to see things getting too much better this year.

The Stud: Steve Francis, PG
At least statistically, Stevie Franchise rebounded from a disastrous 2003-2004 in Houston, going for 21.3/5.8/7.0 and finishing at #20 on the Player Rater. But his contributions in the secondary categories (not to mention the win column) leave a lot to be desired: 42% shooting, 0.5 3s and 1.4 steals are pedestrian numbers, at best. Francis will quite likely move to the two, but as long as he sees close to 40 mpg his numbers shouldn’t change too much. There seems to be a general annoyance with Francis, which could cause him to slide to the third round of drafts, where he could provide very nice value.

The Support: Dwight Howard, PF
The rookie showed promise of great things to come. He never hit the rookie wall, getting considerably stronger and more comfortable as the season progressed, appearing in all 82 games. He quietly finished 35th on the Player Rater, his top comparable on basketball-reference.com is Moses Malone and his first year numbers are eerily similar to Amare Stoudemire’s. There’s a good chance he and not Francis will be “the stud” by the end of the season. Don’t get too carried away, but there’s a good chance he could become an all-star this season.

The Supporting Support: Grant Hill, SF
That’s as good as it’s gonna get, folks. Granted, it was pretty good as Hill returned from three lost seasons to average nearly 20 ppg on 51% shooting while staying quite healthy before shutting it down with for the final three weeks. But it’s hard to think that Hill will be able to improve his game or his health – it’s much more likely that one, or both, will decline. If his 51% shooting drops to something like 47%, he loses a considerable amount of his value.

The Sleeper: Jameer Nelson, PG
The signing of Keyon Dooling was a buzz kill, but it might be enough to let Nelson drop in drafts. In 21 starts last year Nelson averaged 15.7/5.2/4.7 with 1.7 steals and 1.1 3s. Keyon Dooling has his strengths, but he’s just not a starting NBA point guard. Nelson is the most qualified man for the starting PG job and should earn it if given a fair shot. If that happens, he will put up quality numbers, even if his playing time stays in the 32-34 mpg range.

The Slacker: Hedo Turkoglu, GF
He finally showed signs of life last year, averaging a career-high 14 ppg and 1.4 3pg. But he also showed us that he offers little else of interest to fantasy players. He shot just 42%, averaged just 3.5 rpg and has never shown an ability to get steals. He might be of interest as a starter, but after five seasons he’s yet to really make an impact in the league.

Offseason Overview: Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs 2004-2005 season can’t be considered anything but a disappointment. After an extended late-season stumble, which included the firing of coach Paul Silas, the Cavs missed the playoffs despite finishing with their first winning record since the 1997-1998 season. A whole lot has changed as the Cavs have a new owner, a new head coach, a new GM and a whole new supporting cast around King James.

The Stud: LeBron James, SF
Now when we say “The Stud,” we mean “THE Stud.” It’s scary to think what LBJ will do with the rest of his career. He can’t even legally go to bars yet! There’s nothing not to love about LeBron’s game. He does it all, and he will surely be among the league leaders in minutes, which will just make his numbers even better. Might he average 30/10/10? That seems a bit high but you can’t rule out the possibility. This should be the year he surpasses KG as the premier fantasy player. It’s absolutely unthinkable that he would slip past #2 in any draft.

The Support: Zydrunas Ilgauskas, C
That’s three straight healthy years for Big Z, who is one of the top points/rebounds/blocks players in the league, and finished an impressive 23rd on the Player Rater last year. Most of his value is tied up in blocks, as he swatted 2+ per game for the second straight year. His rebounding is solid if unspectacular for a center, but its his game-to-game consistency from a volatile position that is nice. There’s still a bit of risk involved with taking him due to those past foot problems, and with another scorer on board in Hughes, you might be better off letting someone else draft Ilgauskas this season.

The Supporting Support: Larry Hughes, SG
Yes, it’s a bit odd to have the 14th ranked player (by averages) as the supporting support, but whatever. Hughes had a classic contract year last season here in Washington and became a fantasy stud on the strength of his 2.9 steals per game. It’s worth noting that he never averaged more than 1.9 per game before last season, and I fully expect that number to be closer to 2 than 3 this year. Other than steals, he’s simply a solid all-around contributor. His assist and rebound numbers should remain steady, while his scoring should drop slightly. He’s certainly capable of being a key component to a top fantasy team, but those drafting him in the first two rounds will probably be let down.

The Sleeper: Donyell Marshall, F
Again, he’s another player who can’t really be considered a sleeper since he was a Top 20 fantasy player just two years ago. But since he’s the fourth option on Cleveland, he might go underappreciated. Drew Gooden is still around, so it’s still unclear how the PT will shake out, but you have to hope that coach Mike Brown will treat Donyell better than Sam Mitchell did in Toronto last year. What was that about? Marshall is like Dirk Nowitzki-lite, a rare player that can dominate in boards and 3s. Ilgauskas doesn’t grab many boards for a center, so the rebounding opportunities will be there, and you have to think he’ll have the green light to gun it from the outside.

The Slacker: Eric Snow, PG
The point guard situation in Cleveland is still unresolved as of “press time.” At least I hope it’s still unresolved for Cleveland’s sake since Eric Snow is the only point guard on the roster right now. They could still bring in Damon Jones, who would be a perfect fit considering his long-range skills and the fact that LeBron and Hughes are very capable ball handlers. But if that doesn’t happen and Snow does end up as the starter, still stay away. His production fell off a cliff last season, and he can’t offer anything but a few assists at this point.

Offseason Overview: New Jersey Nets

The Nets snuck into the playoffs last year on the strength of a 15-4 finish but were quickly bounced by the Heat in the opening round. With Shareef Abdur-Rahim on board, they were a trendy pick to make the Eastern Conference finals this year. But Abdur-Rahim failed his physical, leaving the Nets with a very questionable frontline. Still, in Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson they have quite a dynamic – albeit brittle – trio.

The Stud: Vince Carter, GF
The numbers don’t lie. A rejuvenated Vinsanity was actually worthy of the nickname after arriving in New Jersey a third of the way through the season. He averaged 27.5/5.9/4.7 with 1.9 3s and 1.5 steals on very solid 46% shooting, almost identical numbers to those from his magical 2000-2001 season. Just as importantly, he stayed healthy. Will he be able to stay healthy and at the top of his game for an entire season? It’s a fair question, and since that’s a fair question, we can’t recommend taking him with a first round pick, despite those gaudy numbers.

The Support: Jason Kidd, PG
Let’s look at the negatives first: He’s a 32-year-old point guard with bad knees who has missed 31 games over the past two seasons and who will single-handedly cripple your FG%. On the plus side, he’s pretty much guaranteed to finish in the top 3 in assists, will be a huge asset in rebounds from the point guard position, and he has turned into a serious outside threat (averaging a full 2 3s per game last year). He has also averaged between 1.8 and 2.3 steals in each of his 11 seasons. Like Carter, health concerns should keep him out of the first round, but don’t let him slip too far.

The Supporting Support: Richard Jefferson, SF
It will be interesting to see how Jefferson adjusts to life with Vince. After appearing in eight games alongside Vince, he missed nearly two-thirds of the season with a wrist injury before returning for the playoffs, where he averaged 15.8/5.5/2.3. I wouldn’t read too much into those numbers since he was rusty and the Nets were getting dominated. But with Vince around RJ is clearly not the #1 scoring option for New Jersey. His 22.2/7.3/4.0 line from last year looks good, but in the eight games with Vince around, those numbers dropped to 18.4/6.1/3.4. For a player who doesn’t contribute all that much in steals, 3s or blocks, those drops are worrisome.

The Sleeper: Nenad Krstic, FC
Krstic isn’t much of a sleeper after he established himself solid center at the end of last season. He was wildly inconsistent throughout the season, but in the Nets 15-4 run at the end of the season, he was good for 13.8 ppg and 6.8 rpg. Krstic does not block as many shots as you’d like from a center, but he shoots near 50% and has a solid free throw percentage. With Abdur-Rahim in town he might have been lost in the shuffle, but he is now the nets top interior scoring threat. As long as he stays out of foul trouble – a problem that plagued him last season – he should be at least a serviceable center with good upside.

The Slacker: Jason Collins, FC
The emergence of Krstic and the signing of Marc Jackson will hopefully relegate Collins to the bench, ending his reign of crappiness. Collins started 158 games over the past two seasons, averaging about 30 mpg, and was never able to amass even an iota of fantasy value. It’s hard to come up with a player who was given as much PT and who provided so little to fantasy owners in return.

Offseason Overview: San Antonio Spurs

Well, the rich keep getting richer, huh? Fresh off another NBA Championship, the Spurs have lost Tony Massenberg, Mike Wilks, Glenn Robinson, and Sean Marks, and replaced them with Fabricio Oberto, Nick Van Exel, and Michael Finley. Rough life, huh? Anyhow, these are the defending champs, so there’s plenty of fantasy fodder to be had:

The stud: Tim Duncan, FC
There’s not much to be said about Tim Duncan that my FBB cohort didn’t already cover earlier in the summer, but nonetheless he’s worth discussing. You know you’re going to get 20/10 and a few blocks at an absolute minimum, and from the center position, no less. You also know you’re getting a guy who misses 15 games or so and could potentially put a serious dent in your free throw percentage. He’s still a lock as a first round pick, but we wouldn’t recommend him anywhere before the middle of the first round.

The support: Manu Ginobili, GF
Every year, a player just absolutely explodes in the playoffs. A few years ago it was Troy Hudson, who proceeded to fall apart the next year. Last year it was Manu Ginobili, who put on quite a show in the postseason last year. As a result, he may be overvalued this year. His postseason stats (20.8/5.8/4.2, 1.8 3’s, 1.2 steals) were definitely higher than his regular season numbers (16/4.4/3.9, 1.3 3’s and 1.6 steals), but he’s a great all-around contributor. He’s probably a third round pick at this point, but someone will probably take a chance on him in the second round.

The supporting support: Tony Parker, PG
Parker is an interesting fantasy player. While he puts up nice points and assists numbers, and contributes a steal, he doesn’t help anywhere else. Virtually no threes, which is rare from a PG, and his 65% from the free throw line last year was brutal. Nonetheless, he is useful as a utility player on a fantasy team, though fairly shaky as a 2nd PG.

The sleeper: Nazr Mohammed, C
Mohammed might slip under the radar this year in fantasy drafts, and with good reason, as he only gets about 20 mpg on the Spurs, and doesn’t hit 10 points or rebounds. But as we mentioned earlier, Tim Duncan is a good bet to miss some time, and when he doesn’, Mohammed will have to help fill his role, meaning more minutes, and a potential double-double at center. The sexy sleeper pick here is Oberto, who is supposed to be a terrific European prospect, but he may have trobule getting minutes in his first year in the league.

The slacker: Michael Finley, GF
Sure he’s getting a lot of press lately because of his woo-fest resulting in his signing with the Spurs, but Finley might be hitting the waiver wires for the first time in eight years this year. He’s sure to be drafted, but his declining numbers the past 3 years, as well as his new reduced role, means Finley may not be worth much this year, though he could have his hot streaks.

Offseason Overview: New Orleans Hornets

OK, well, I’ve decided against making any particularly insensitive remarks about the current disaster in New Orleans, comparing it to the disaster that is the New Orleans Hornets. But really, there’s not much to look forward to this year for the Hornets, for either their fans or fantasy owners. Much like the Dallas Mavericks, the Hornets have now gotten rid of 2 of their Big Three from two years ago, and got very little in return. Unlike the Mavs, they got rid of the best of those three (Baron Davis), and the one that remains (Jamaal Magloire) is extremely unhappy and isn’t really a guy to build around anyhow. But there may be some gems to be found:

The stud: Jamaal Magloire, F/C
After the 03-04 season, Magloire looked like he was ready to break out last year. He was averaging a double double, and was performing particularly well down the stretch. Then, last year happened. His PPG fell, his shooting percentage dropped, and his attitude hit the floor. Oh yeah, and he only played in 23 games, after playing all 82 games the previous three years. The subject of unfulfilled trade rumors all summer, he could be a nice sleeper in the middle rounds this year.

The support: Chris Paul, PG
Paul may be the first rookie taken in fantasy drafts this year, battling with Andrew Bogut for that honor. He could very well lead the team in points and assists, and it’s not like they’re going to sit him for Speedy Claxton, I would hope. He’ll be a nice 2nd PG, but I wouldn’t count on him as your main assists guy.

The supporting support: JR Smith, SG
Smith showed plenty of promise last year, progressing through the year from an obviously overwhelmed high schooler to a nice scoring threat by the end of the season. He could be good for anywhere from 12 to 18 ppg this year, with one or two 3’s and a steal. The problem is that he doesn’t help whatsoever in boards or assists, but there’s always a chance that with a full year under his belt, he’ll be able to improve those numbers.

The sleeper: Chris Andersen, F/C
Sure, he got some grief at the dunk contest, but taking a look at his numbers from last year, Andersen could have plenty of value if he got 30-35 mpg. In 21 mpg, he put up 7.7/6.1 with 1.5 blocks. Project that to 30 mpg, and those numbers go up to 11/8.7/2.1, and suddenly he’s a great midseason pickup. Getting those minutes, however, is another story.

The slacker: PJ Brown, PF
This has gotta be it for PJ, right? I mean, nobody’s been more consistent over the last 3 years, but he’s such a borderline fantasy player, only really helping in rebounds. And now he’ll be 36 when the year starts … nothing against the guy, but at some point you’re better off drafting on potential. That time might be now for PJ.