Here at FBB headquarters, we do our best to make sure that our readers (hi, Mom!) are as prepared as they could possibly be for their fantasy drafts. And because we did all these rankings, analysis, etc., you’d think that we’d be totally ready for our draft, which happened this past weekend. But were we really ready? Well, that’s for you to judge. So, today, I’m going to go over my team and do a little self-analysis. Then tomorrow, DM will do the same for himself.

So you know, our league is 12 teams, and our positions are PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, Util, Util, Bn, Bn, Bn.

BV’s Draft

1st Round (7th overall): Tim Duncan, F/C.
I was expecting at 7 to get the remains of Duncan/Kobe/T-Mac, but then D. Wade went at 6 and I ended up with both T-Mac and Duncan and I had to make a choice. I ended up with Duncan because of my concerns about McGrady’s legs. Sure, Duncan is a big injury risk, but I couldn’t allow myself to enter the season with my stud player already hurt.

2nd Round (18th overall): Stephon Marbury, PG
After Duncan in the first round, I knew I wanted a PG in the second. My choices here were Marbury, Bibby, Baron Davis, and Stevie Franchise. I went with Marbury because of four numbers: 82, 81, 81, 82. Those are the number of games he’s played in the last four seasons. After getting an injury risk with Duncan, I needed someone I could count of for 80 games as my number 2 man.

3rd Round (31st overall): Jason Richardson, SG
After getting both a C and PG in the first two rounds, the third and fourth rounds were going to be purely best-player-available. Richardson was that, just edging out Chris Bosh and Dwight Howard.

4th Round (42nd overall): Chauncey Billups, PG
At this point I was hoping for one of three forwards to slip to me here: Bosh, Howard, or Richard Jefferson. Didn’t happen. Though I didn’t really want 3 guards in my first four picks, Billups was the best player available, just edging out Andre Iguodala.

5th Round (55th overall): Sam Dalembert, C
Well, this was stupid. I wanted a big man, and I liked Dalembert, but I forgot the golden rule of drafting: Before you make your pick, make sure he’s not hurt. I should have taken Carmelo Anthony here. Now, I’ve got some work to do to make up for this pick.

6th round (66th overall): Antawn Jamison, F
Here, we’re really in the worst part of the draft. Guys that you know are going to have to contribute to your team, but nobody that you really want to depend on. I could have gone a bunch of different directions with this pick, but I took Jamison because A) Other than last year, he’s not much of an injury risk, and B) I needed rebounds after the disastrous pick last round, and he gives you that.

7th round (79th overall): Troy Murphy, PF
This late in the draft, if you can find a double-double guy who will also contribute in three’s, you’ve gotta take him. Between him and J-Rich, I’ve got a lot of faith in the Warriors this year.

8th round (90th overall): Jamaal Magloire, C
At this point, I’m still reeling from my Dalembert pick, and I know that I’m going to need some depth at C. So here’s a BCA (Best Center Available) pick, and I’m happy to have him as a fill-in starter/utility man for Duncan and Dalembert.

9th round (103rd overall): Nenad Krstic, C
See above. Now I’ve got 4 centers that I can feel ok about putting into my starting lineup. That will hopefully be enough.

10th round (114th overall): Ricky Davis, G/F
Call it a hunch, maybe, but this late I want someone I can play at the Utility spot when I have to, but that I can also sit on my bench so I can ride a hot hand. Also, as a G/F, he’s going to give me some roster flexibility.

11th round (127th overall): Charlie Villanueva, F
OK, I know, this is early for Illanueva (come on, that’s an awesome nickname for him and you know it). But there were three guys I was targeting to get in the mid-late rounds: Stromile Swift, Eddie Griffin, and Villanueva. Swift went in the sixth, three picks before I was going to take him. Griffin went in the seventh, which nearly made me fall out of my chair. So I reached a little bit so that I was sure to get one of my three targeted guys.

12th round (138th overall): Antoine Walker, F
Seriously? I mean, Walker can be a kiss of death for a fantasy team, but in the 12th round? This is a guy who could have gone in the 7th or 8th and nobody would have blinked.

13th round (151st overall): Rashad McCants, G
Hey, why not? I mean, the kid can score. But at the same time, I don’t expect him to be on my team for more than a week.

So, for those of you keeping score at home:

PG Stephon Marbury
SG Jason Richardson
G Chauncey Billups
SF Antawn Jamison
PF Antoine Walker
F Troy Murphy
C Tim Duncan
C Jamaal Magloire
Ut Nenad Krstic
Ut Ricky Davis
Bn Samuel Dalembert
Bn Charlie Villanueva
Bn Rashard McCants.

My major concern this year will be my FT%, but if Duncan can get back over the 70% mark, I should be ok. Plus, if Dalembert gets healthy soon, then I should have a glut at C which should help me out in the trade market. Only one guy on my squad played under 66 games last year (Magloire), so that is comforting.

Tomorrow: DM.

Man, we can’t even get to the beginning of the year without a major trade in the NBA. Not that we’re complaining – trades are probably the most exciting things that happen in the league other than the games themselves. So much analysis to do! So let’s get started.

Now, I’m going to get to the newly-jumbled Bucks front court, but first let’s talk a little bit about Desmond Mason, who is the new number one option in New Orleans, whether he likes it or not. Mason set career-highs in points and minutes per game last year, but also managed to have his fewest rebounds per game since his rookie year, and the most turnovers of his career. He will never be seen as a defensive contributor for a fantasy team, and seems to be pretty afraid to chuck it from the arc. So really, that’s three categories you just can’t expect any help in. He’s also not much of a passer, averaging just 1.8 apg through his career. His FG%? It’s OK at around 45%, but that’s only going to go down as defenses key on him as the most established scoring option on his team. His FT% isn’t all that great for a G/F, at 78%. So, that really leaves just two categories that he can really help in – points and rebounds. He certainly has the potential to be a plus in rebounds, as evidenced by his 6.5 rpg in ’02, but last year he pulled down just 3.9. Points? Last year he set a career high with 17.2, but I don’t think anyone expects him to go much higher than 20 to 22 ppg this year.

So, let’s see. 20 ppg, maybe 5 boards, no real help in %’s, and a liability defensively and in 3’s. That sounds to me like a pre-Pistons Rip Hamilton. DM says it’s a poor man’s Corey Maggette or Michael Redd, which is fair, I suppose. I still can’t see him being worth anything better than a 7th -10th round pick, though.

“Actually, it’s pronounced ‘Mil-e-wah-que’…”

… And it’s got a bunch of big men with fantasy value all up in the air. They tied up Dan Gadzuric with a big inflated contract this summer, then used the number one pick in the draft on Andrew Bogut, and then yesterday decided they needed another big and traded for Magloire. Oh yeah, and they’ve got Joe Smith in the mix, too. So what’s going to happen?

Let’s be honest here for a second. We don’t know. You don’t know, I don’t know, NOBODY knows. Because, honestly, not even the Bucks know. We’ve heard that Bogut and Magloire are going to start together. We’ve heard that Bogut is going to come off the bench. We’ve heard that Joe Smith isn’t going to play much because of his knee. We’ve heard lots of stuff, but none of it is a sure thing.

Still, you can make a few assumptions. One, Magloire will get his minutes as long as he’s healthy and the Bucks are in the hunt for the playoffs. Two, Bogut will get every opportunity to get major minutes. Three, Gadzuric will not play more than 20 mpg without an injury to someone, and as such shouldn’t be worth more that a one-category stat stuffer (blocks) and shouldn’t be drafted. Four, Joe Smith, who has fairly marginal fantasy value as it is, is probably undraftable at this point as well as his minutes are up in the air.

Who’s Big in the Big Easy?

Sure, the Hornets traded away Magloire, and theoretically that should present an opportunity for someone in the middle. But remember, they played about ¾ of last year without Magloire, and still no one really stepped up in his absence. Look for minutes at the 4 and 5 to be split amongst PJ Brown, Chris Andersen and David West, with second-round pick Brandon Bass maybe seeing some decent time as well, but none of their values are really any higher now than they were at this point last week.

OK, so perhaps I overstated myself in that e-mail to BV where I said “DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO PRESEASON STATS.” Now, I’m not going to go back on that statement because I still feel that it’s almost entirely true. Those looking for the answers to the fantasy season in a handful of preseason games are wasting their time. The classic assumption about the NBA is that no one actually starts to try until the last five minutes of the game. This obviously isn’t true, but do you think that anyone who isn’t fighting for a roster spot is playing at anything more than ¾ speed? Do you think that studs would be sitting out with such minor injuries, which is letting lesser players put up impressive numbers? Basically, when you have many seasons worth of regular season stats to fall back on, don’t let eight games in October do anything to change your outlook.

That said, box scores are box scores and there are some interesting numbers to look at from this preseason. We are less interested in actual performance than in playing time trends, so keep that in mind.

37.2 – That’s how many minutes per game Josh Childress is averaging. He has played 223 minutes in six games. The player with the second most minutes played is Raja Bell with 188. The next highest minutes per game average is 32.5 from LeBron. This is something to pay attention to. It holds with the theory that you should be paying attention to playing time more than actual performance, although the two are obviously related. Childress’s numbers haven’t been all that mind-blowing – 14.0/5.0/2.8 with 1.5 steals – but there is every indication that the Hawks are going to keep him out there plenty this year, which is only going to make for even better numbers. Childress is already a favorite sleeper here at FBB and we would bump him up a few more spots from #79 where we put him on the overall rankings.

15.8 – That’s how many points per game John Salmons is averaging this preseason. That includes games of 25 and 30 points. So does that mean that John Salmons is ready to bust out into one of the league’s leading scorers? No, of course not. Those two huge games came when Allen Iverson was out of the lineup, something that is bound to happen at least 8-10 times each season and perhaps much more than that. No team has a higher percentage of its scoring to replace than the 76ers when AI is out of the lineup. In the seven games that AI missed last year, Willie Green – an ordinary player by all measures – stepped into the starting lineup. In those seven games Green averaged 36.1 mpg as his replacement and was able to put up a line of 18/5.3/5.1. With Green suffering one of the more unfortunate injuries over the summer (at least for those folks related to Willie Green), Salmons seems set to step into the role of AI’s understudy. That doesn’t make him worth drafting, but in league’s with daily transactions where you can plug Salmons in if you know that AI’s going to be out, Salmons should be a Top 50 player on those nights.

4.7 – That’s how many personal fouls Rashad McCants is averaging per game, in just 24 minutes. That is a whole lot of fouls, especially for a swingman. A lot of people have high hopes for McCants this season and the opportunity does seem to be there for him. He’s a very gifted offensive player but has a reputation for being a lazy defender. Picking up nearly five fouls per game in 24 minutes seems to support this theory. It will be hard for him to accrue much value if he has to come out of the game constantly due to foul trouble. Another player plagued by foul troubles is Al Jefferson. As a rookie he averaged 2.8 fouls per game in just 14.8 mpg. So far this preseason he’s averaging 4 fouls per game in just 18 minutes per contest, a rate even higher than McCants. The Celtics seem hesitant to hand him the starters job, and if they would have to yank him after six minutes due to him picking up two fouls, the team might be better off letting him come off the bench anyway.

Here we are, about a week-plus until the glorious start of the NBA season, and some of us are having deja-vu all over again. We open up our favorite basketball news sites, and the first thing we see is a report on the injured Chris Webber. The next thing we see is a report on the injured Grant Hill. What is this, 2004? Or 2003? Or 2002?

You get the picture.

Neither Webber nor Hill has been drafted in the past few years without their potential owners taking a deep breath, closing their eyes, and saying a quick prayer. And that won’t change this year. But let’s take a closer look at each player and see where you’re going to have to start thinking about taking them.

Chris Webber, PF
Boy, there hasn’t been a more frustrating player to own – for fantasy players or NBA owners – over the past few years. But when you get right down to it, Webber is still a talented player and a huge fantasy asset when he’s healthy. Not counting his rough start in Philly last year, Webber is a pretty consistent 20-10-4 player, with about 1 steal and 1 block, and decent percentages. How many other 20-10-4 guys are there in the league? One. And he’s the perennial number one pick in all fantasy leagues – Kevin Garnett. The only other player that really comes close is Dirk Nowitzki, a top-5 pick in most drafts.

Now, we’re not saying that C-Webb should be thought about in the first couple rounds of your draft. But at the same time, he could be undervalued going in to the year. Right now he’s at 50 –and falling – on the ESPN live draft results. DM and I held off until 61 before picking him in our mock draft. But look at that talent. And granted, he played only 67 games last year, but you know what? That’s more than Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Peja Stojakovic, and Pau Gasol played last year. And he ended up 44th on the ESPN Player Rater (by totals) despite his missing time and his horrendous play in Philadelphia.

Webber might be a huge risk, but when you’re gambling – and let’s face it, fantasy sports is gambling – the biggest winners are the ones who take the biggest risks – and win on them. Feelin’ lucky? Take him in the fourth. But no one is going to question you for letting him slip by.

Grant Hill, SF
Grant Hill is another story altogether. His stats from last year paint a pretty sad picture. While last year was great from an overall basketball standpoint for Hill – his 67 games played and 19.7 ppg were both highs for Hill since coming to Orlando – it was pretty sobering from a fantasy standpoint. His 4.8 rpg were probably the most stunning number, for a guy who had averaged around 8 boards in his career. The 3.3 assists were just as disappointing, as his career average was closer to 6.

While hopes were that he could return to his 20/8/6 historical averages, Hill’s numbers last year were eerily similar to Desmond Mason’s. You’ve got to think that Hill won’t be able to return to the stats that owners were hoping for when they took him last year. Of course, when healthy, he’s still got some value. But if his best case scenario is about 6th round value … and this abdominal injury doesn’t look like it’s gonna clear up anytime soon … can you really justify taking him before the 10th round? I don’t think you can.

So here at FBB HQ, we were discussing what to talk about this week, now that we’ve finished off ranking just about everything there is to be ranked. Here’s a quote from DM: “We could do some preseason stuff (as in DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO PRESEASON STATS).” To which I say: “really?”

Sure, the majority of preseason stats are of little to no value. Players aren’t getting the minutes they normally would, they’re not playing full speed in a lot of cases, and they’re often on the floor against future CBA-ers. But there’s still some important stuff going on. I mean, come on – it’s been like 4 months since we’ve had a box score to look at. So what should you be looking for when checking out the numbers? How ’bout this:

Rookie Projections
Before you roll your eyes, I’m not trying to tell you that what a rookie does in the preseason is what he’ll do ion the regular season. Because it’s not. But a lot of rookies will change their games when they enter the NBA. One thing to look for is any sort of unexpected stats from rookies. For example, Chris Paul grabbed ten rebounds last night against Denver. And two games before that, he pulled down seven against Atlanta. This is a guy who averaged 4.5 rpg last year in college – good, but not great – so it’s safe to say that those kind of numbers are a bit unexpected. All you have to do is look at Jason Kidd to know how much strong rebounding numbers can help a PG’s fantasy value.

Here’s another example. Last year with Connecticut, Charlie Villanueva took a total of twelve 3-pointers all year long – making six of them. Over the last five preseason games with Toronto, Villanueva has gone five for twelve from the arc. Where did this come from? Who knows, and who cares. The important thing is that if Villanueva keeps shooting the long ball, he’s going to have more value than many thought.

Position Battles
Here in Washington, we’ve got a nice little position battle between Chucky Atkins and Antonio Daniels, who are fighting to be the new backcourt mate of Gilbert Arenas. Last night in Houston, each got over 34 minutes, and Atkins way out-performed Daniels, as has been the case throughout most of the preseason. Should Atkins end up winning the battle and getting 30+ mpg for the Wiz, he’ll be worth a late round draft pick.

Similarly, there are battles to be won in Atlanta (three of them, really), New York (PT at center), and a number of other spots across the league.

Injury Watches
Nagging injuries in the preseason generally will turn into non-issues during the regular season. But sometimes, there’s truth to them. Shaun Livingston, for example, probably shouldn’t be drafted any more. Quentin Richardson should be sliding down the draft board. Brevin Knight’s elbow could be something to watch. It’s not a terrible idea to spend a late round pick on a guy who’s doing some injury fill-in work, and knowing who’s injured, obviously, is a good way to do that.

So as you can see, preseason games aren’t totally useless. If you know what to look for, there can be some useful information in them. I mean, it’s a basketball box score – it’s gotta be good for something.

And now we get to the dregs. There are some useful players in this bunch, but it’s mostly guess work at this point. When in doubt, I like to go with point guards or big men with upside, but that’s just a personal preference.

1 to 30
31 to 60
61 to 90
91 to 120

121. T.J. Ford – Has his issues, but he is a starting PG who can rack up assists, so that counts for something.
122. Mike Miller – Opportunity is there for him to assert himself as team’s #2 option; needs to stay healthy.
123. James Posey – Even if he’s not scoring a lot, can still be a useful player.
124. Damon Jones – If nothing else, will hit enough 3s to warrant a roster spot.
125. Marquis Daniels – We like him more than we should, but anyone who remembers the playoffs two years ago should know why; Doug Christie is old.
126. Amare Stoudemire – This just makes me sad; get all better for 06-07, Amare.
127. Chris Kaman – Skeptical he’ll ever be able be anything more than a guy you can use for a couple weeks at a time when he gets hot.
128. Kwame Brown – Don’t pick him any higher, but if you remember the second half of 03-04, he’s shown that he does have some skills.
129. Zaza Pachulia – We’ll see if those preseason visions of 30-35 mpg actually come true.
130. Kenny Thomas – Sacto should score enough and have a small enough rotation to give him a bit of value.
131. Primoz Brezec – Not a lot of boards or blocks from a center; Bobcats are deeper this season.
132. Vladimir Radmanovic – He’d like to have a contract-year breakout, but needs to be on the court to make it happen.
133. Chris Mihm – Was able to do 10/7 with 1.4 bpg in 25 minutes last year; even if it doesn’t get much better, could do worse for #2 center.
134. Nene – Camby’s gotta miss at least 20, right? In 18 starts last year, Nene went 12.7/6.9/2.2 with 1.1 steals and .9 blocks.
135. Matt Harpring – Think of him as Szczerbiak-lite; we realize that’s not saying much.
136. Udonis Haslem – Might lose starting job to Walker, but at least he’s proven his worth before, unlike lots below him here.
137. James Jones – Someone will get carried away and take him too high; expect Jim Jackson to see just as much – if not more – PT.
138. Luol Deng – Only 20 years old, he could get a lot better, but is pretty ordinary right now.
139. Juan Dixon – May enter the season as a starter, but would be surprised if he’s not coming off the bench sooner rather than later.
140. Desmond Mason – There are a few ways to go this late in the draft – the solid won’t-hurt-you-but-probably-won’t-really-help-you pick…
141. Shaun Livingston – … or the hope-he-becomes-a-breakout-star pick.
142. Jerry Stackhouse – Can still put up points with the best of them, but that’s about it.
143. Doug Christie – If he’s starting and still has something left in the tank, can be an underrated contributor.
144. Rashad McCants – We’re very skeptical; will need to hit a bunch of 3s to have value, we think.
145. Antonio Daniels – Might be an OK #3 PG; surprisingly helpful in FT%.
146. Delonte West – Don’t expect lots of assists even if starter, but should get some steals.
147. Jim Jackson – Wouldn’t be surprised to see him get starter’s minutes even coming off the bench.
148. Kelvin Cato – Career 51% shooter has averaged 1.9 blocks and 8.2 rebounds per 30 minutes in his career.
149. Dan Gadzuric – Another rebound and blocks machine that just needs the PT…
150. Joe Smith – But this guy seems to be blocking his path.
151. Derek Anderson
152. Voshon Lenard
153. Hedo Turkoglu
154. Keith Van Horn
155. Lornezen Wright
156. Michael Pietrus
157. Michael Finley
158. Bostjan Nachbar
159. Mark Blount
160. Marc Jackson
161. Chris Andersen
162. Danny Granger
163. Chris Duhon
164. Adonal Foyle
165. Sarunas Jasekevicius
166. Dan Dickau
167. Maurice Williams
168. Antonio McDyess
169. Devin Harris
170. Fred Jones
171. Brent Barry
172. Devin Brown
173. Michael Olowokandi
174. Nazr Mohammed
175. Nick Collison
176. Speedy Claxton
177. Matt Bonner
178. Nate Robinson
179. Darius Songaila
180. DeShawn Stevenson
181. Gary Payton
182. Marvin Williams
183. Tim Thomas
184. Charlie Villanueva
185. Trevor Ariza
186. Bobby Jackson
187. Ronald Murray
188. Andris Biedrins
189. Latrell Sprewell
190. Gordan Giricek
191. Ike Diogu
192. Jarvis Hayes
193. Keyon Dooling
194. Juwan Howard
195. Martell Webster
196. Earl Watson
197. David Wesley
198. Smush Parker
199. Jerome James
200. Stephen Hunter

1 to 30
31 to 60
61 to 90

91. Jamaal Tinsley – The ultimate tease; few can match his 3s/steals/assists combo, but he plain cannot shoot or stay healthy.
92. Eddie Jones – Certainly on the downside of his career, but can handle lots of minutes and hit 3s with the best.
93. Al Harrington – Won’t ever have a huge breakout like some had hoped, but should be solid as long as minutes are there.
94. Morris Peterson – See above.
95. Gerald Wallace – His big numbers (for his position) in steals and blocks will do a lot to offset his seriously lackluster shooting.
96. Ricky Davis – He’ll start, yes, but averaged 33 mpg last year and wasn’t anything all that special.
97. Sam Cassell – Could be a disaster, but Livingston is young and injury-prone; can’t forget how consistently awesome Sam was the three years before last.
98. Mike James – As long as he’s starting, he’ll be well worth using.
99. Mike Sweetney – Needs to lock down starting job, but will be a rebound/FG% monster if he does.
100. Sebastian Telfair – If he could shoot the 3 he’d be better, but 6.7 apg and 1.4 spg in April make him an OK option.
101. Mehmet Okur – As always, potential is there, but he’s usually frustrating to own with Sloan getting much of the blame.
102. Joel Przybilla – Ask the folks who drafted Mark Blount and Samuel Dalembert last year how reliable big men who finish strong are.
103. J.R. Smith – Hasn’t shown he can do anything but shoot a bunch of 3s; don’t go crazy with the kids.
104. Troy Murphy – We’re never too high on non-hustle stat guys, but if the Warriors run enough he should have some value.
105. Ben Gordon – Have to think he’ll break into the starting lineup eventually; still is a pretty one-dimensional player.
106. Raja Bell – Someone will probably jump the gun thinking he’ll replicate JoeJohn’s numbers from last year; that’s quite unlikely, but he should be solid.
107. Al Jefferson – Pick him up in January after the guy who drafted him too early gets frustrated and drops him.
108. P.J. Brown – Keeps on plugging away; needs to get that FG% back up to around 47%, but will be underrated as usual.
109. Wally Szczerbiak – His strong percentages make him worth having around, especially if he can get back up to 15 shots per game.
110. Nenad Krstic – Another one of those strong-finish big men to be wary of, especially since he doesn’t block many shots.
111. Brendan Haywood – OK, a bit of a homer pick, but it’s not unreasonably to expect 2 bpg with very nice boards and FG%.
112. Erick Dampier – He might be interested, he might not. His 12/12 with 2 blocks from a couple years is hard to ignore, but honestly, you probably should.
113. Eddy Curry – All of the big men in this batch have major questions, so just pick one you like. Could be an offensive force, but don’t expect any rebounds or blocks all of a sudden.
114. Jameer Nelson – He seems to be buried right now, just can’t understand why; 14.9/4.0/4.6 with 1.5 spg and 1.2 3pg after the break shows he’s more than ready.
115. Bonzi Wells – Is slated for lots of PT, but doesn’t have the greatest game and can get on coaches’ bad sides quickly.
116. Theo Ratliff – Even in a very off year averaged 2.5 bpg; if Przybilla isn’t for real should get a chance to reclaim his starting job.
117. Darius Miles – Perennial tease, but Portland is very thin this year and he does get a decent number of steals and blocks for his position.
118. Eddie Griffin – Yet another perennial tease, but he can be very effective with only 25-28 mpg.
119. Raymond Felton – We think he’ll get there eventually…
120. Brevin Knight – But until then, these two are going to hurt each other’s value.

1 to 30
31 to 60

This is where things start to get tricky. In the first four or five rounds, you have to take the best player available. There is a limited number of true impact players, and the more you can get your hands on, the better. By the time you get the middle rounds, you need to start addressing team needs. Most of these players have specific strengths and weaknesses and are pretty interchangeable, really.

61. Shareef Abdur-Rahim – Career averages: 20 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.8 bpg, 47% and 82%. Was always healthy before last year, could be bargain this low.
62. Kyle Korver – Will lead the league in 3s – probably by a lot. Philly isn’t very deep (especially after C-Webb goes down), so PT shouldn’t be an issue, plus he grabs his share of steals.
63. Kurt Thomas – Not a whole ton of upside, but he’s missed just five games in four seasons and will be a key part of one of the league’s top offenses.
64. Chris Paul – A bit of wishful thinking perhaps, but he should have every opportunity to run with the starting job and backup Claxton has a knack for getting injured.
65. Damon Stoudamire – Should fend off B-Jax and be a solid #2 PG; you know he’s not shy about launching 3s.
66. Stromile Swift – At the very least, should average around 2 bpg, and that C-eligibility is pretty sweet, to boot.
67. Jalen Rose – Not the most exciting pick, but he should be on the court enough to rack up some pretty nice numbers.
68. Tony Parker – Remember, he’s just 23 and has gotten better each year; fixing his FT% and continued improvement will make him as solid as the rest of the PG in this batch.
69. Grant Hill – Can’t see production or health getting better this year, only worse.
70. Samuel Dalembert – Another one of those failed sleepers picks that can provide nice value the following year; could be the next in the Camby/Chandler mold.
71. Kenyon Martin – Always overrated; usually fights injury issues and just doesn’t fill up the box score all that much.
72. Jamaal Magloire – We think you’ll probably be able to slip him by later than this; don’t forget he was 14/10 with 1.2 blocks and 47% and 75% before injury-marred 04-05.
73. Stephen Jackson – Depth and sanity issues, but he’s a 3-point gunner who gets decent steals.
74. Antawn Jamison – He might get more trigger happy from long range, which would help boost his overvalued stock.
75. Marko Jaric – He’s been an FBB favorite and an FBB most hated; brings a nice combo of 3s, assists and steals, but health has always been a major, major issue.
76. Tayshaun Prince – If you’ve made some risky picks, he’s a guy you can plug in for the entire season and leave alone.
77. Carmelo Anthony – Probably the single most overrated player in fantasy, but young enough to improve.
78. Jason Williams – Just sense trouble in Miami; also, has missed at least 10 games in three of last four seasons.
79. Josh Childress – This kid could blow up, and you’ll want to get in on the ground floor; I see Tayshaun Prince, others see Shawn Marion – could realistically land halfway between the two.
80. Drew Gooden – Hard to ignore last year’s 28th place finish on the player rater, but he always seems to rub folks the wrong way and this is a deep squad.
81. Caron Butler – Don’t at all expect more of April’s numbers, just hope he can regain his rookie steals magic.
82. Luke Ridnour – He’s almost a solid #2 PG, and if he can get up to 37 mpg, he surely will be.
83. Quentin Richardson – Actually averaged 2.5 ppg less last year than with the Clippers; great rebounder for a guard.
84. Jamal Crawford – Expect lots of people to be scared to draft Knicks; there’s a certain risk involved, but this late you can afford to take a chance.
85. Deron Williams – Just remember that Jerry Sloan can be an extremely frustrating coach, and he is a rookie point guard.
86. Mike Dunleavy – Hey, it’s a contract year and the Warriors could put up 120 regularly.
87. Antoine Walker – Fewer minutes may make percentages more bearable, but will have negative impact overall.
88. Andrew Bogut – We tend to tread very carefully with rookies on FBB; it’s all about how many steals and blocks he can give you.
89. Raef Lafrentz – If he can repeat last year’s unspectacular but healthy season, he’ll be a bargain this low.
90. Shane Battier – With Memphis’s thinned-out roster, more PT will be available for the stat stuffer – especially when the inevitable injury hits.

1 to 30

31. Chauncey Billups – We love PGs here at FBB, and they don’t come more rock solid than this one.
32. Jason Terry – No, seriously, we love PGs, especially ones who were able to finish 30th on the player rater while only getting 30 mpg. The FG% will go down (way down), but everything else will go up.
33. Jason Richardson – J-Rich has only improved during his four years, and the Warriors are primed to be this year’s version of the Suns.
34. Kirk Hinrich – News that Duhon and not Gordon will be his starting backcourt mate is a bit of a buzzkill.
35. Zydrunas Ilgauskas – He’s proven he can stay healthy, but there are many weapons on Cleveland, whereas last year he was one of just three.
36. Ben Wallace – That FT% hurts more than you think and he’s not the same as he was three years ago; still, there’s hope for a contract year rebound. Literally.
37. Dwight Howard – It’s easy to get too excited about “what might be,” but he’s a stud in the making, no doubt.
38. Emeka Okafor – Hope for a few more blocks than last year and that his back doesn’t get too cranky.
39. Shaquille O’Neal – And even this might be too high. Let’s talk about Shaq for a moment. It’s near impossible to win with him on your team, that’s why you can’t do it unless he’s your fourth rounder, because you need that many studs to help you finish near the top in the other seven categories. Because kiss FT% goodbye. And for the love of god, don’t do something stupid and draft someone like Ray Allen or Chauncey Billups to “offset” Shaq. That’s just about the worst thing you can do, because it won’t even come close to bringing you out of the cellar, and you are wasting the value of a player like that. But therein lies the problem. Since you have to wait until the fourth (maybe third) round to realistically draft Shaq, unless you have already drafted players that compliment him, you probably can’t even afford to draft him anyway.
40. Lamar Odom – Could be primed for a huge year, but this is his seventh season, so time might be running out; just not enough 3s, steals or blocks to be truly great.
41. Larry Hughes – The steals and assists will go down, but he’s a solid all-around contributor.
42. Andre Igoudala – Absolutely love his all around game; he’s an Artest in the making. That’s a compliment, by the way.
43. Manu Ginobili – If only the Spurs weren’t so deep that he was limited to just 30 mpg.
44. Corey Maggette – His FT% dominance can’t be overlooked, but other than that he’s an oft-injured, points-only swingman.
45. Richard Jefferson – Like Odom and Maggette, lack of help in steals, blocks and 3s hurts his value.
46. Michael Redd – Not a favorite around here, but he is top dog in Milwaukee, which counts for something.
47. Andre Miller – Has missed three games in his career and averaged 8.2 apg after the break last year; that’s a nice and steady mid-round pick if there ever was one.
48. Marcus Camby – Injuries are already bothering him; has the talent to justify being taken here (much earlier, actually), but he will always be a risk.
49. Zach Randolph – If he can go 20/10 with percentages of 50 and 80, you can look past the rest of his game; he’s certainly The Man in Portland, which is mostly good, but might hurt his FG%.
50. Rasheed Wallace – Center eligibility, 3s, blocks, durability make for a nice package.
51. Cuttino Mobley – Bombs away. And away, and away, and away; could be back to old 40 mpg self.
52. Donyell Marhsall – Have to think he’ll get his minutes once the rotation shakes out; fantasy God with enough PT.
53. Rafer Alston – Moves into a perfect situation, especially if Sura won’t be available.
54. Carlos Boozer – Not much at all separating him from Randolph.
55. Richard Hamilton – Don’t take him any higher, but he’s durable and consistent.
56. Tyson Chandler – We think he’ll be a better guy to have on your team than Camby this year.
57. Josh Smith – If you can deal with some ups and downs, you’ll likely have a first place blocks finish to show for it.
58. Chris Webber – Could be the steal of the draft at this spot … but probably not.
59. Josh Howard – If Avery plays him as much as he says he’s going to, this will end up being low.
60. Bobby Simmons – Going for steady, all-around contributors in the middle rounds isn’t a bad strategy.

Time to roll out the FBB overall rankings. We try to be as objective as possible but remember, this is just one set of opinions. Don’t take it as gospel. Look at other lists but most importantly use your own judgment as well. It’s your team that you’re drafting, you should be the one with the major say in how it turns out.

It should be noted that these rankings are meant for 8-category (no turnovers), re-draft leagues.

1. Kevin Garnett – Stick with the guy who’s done it the past six years. Dominant boards, point guard assists, 50% shooting and three missed games in half a decade.
2. LeBron James – In time he’ll be #1, but right now he’s still the greatest consolation prize around.
3. Shawn Marion – Never the most “exciting” pick, but fantasy is about numbers and the numbers don’t lie. Amare’s absence could mean even bigger things.
4. Dirk Nowitzki – The dominance and durability you want in a first rounder.
5. Kobe Bryant – Missed significant time in four of past six seasons, but the best of the best when he’s out there. He has a lot to prove, which is good news for his numbers.
6. Tracy McGrady – Has never played in 80 games, but was dominant after November last season. Picking between him and Kobe is a matter of personal choice.
7. Andrei Kirilenko – Points is just one category and the easiest to find help in; last year’s injuries were flukes and he’s ready to explode.
8. Tim Duncan – Free throw and injury issues, sure, but he’s still a beast. At least, unlike Shaq, there’s a chance he could shoot 70%.
9. Gilbert Arenas – Emerging as the new AI (with more 3s and fewer steals) and more likely to stay healthy.
10. Paul Pierce – Higher than almost anyone else has him, but he always delivers and always plays – exactly what you need from a first rounder.
11. Allen Iverson – Perhaps a bit low, but just as likely to shoot 39% and miss 20 games as he is to repeat last year.
12. Elton Brand – Like Duncan without the free throw issues; always underappreciated.
13. Dwyane Wade – If he could add one 3pg to his repertoire (don’t expect it), he’d be interchangeable with Kobe and T-Mac.
14. Stephon Marbury – People are ridiculously down on him; he’s easily the Knicks best player and LB will realize that.
15. Vince Carter – Looked miraculously healed once he left Toronto; even a slight drop-off from his NJ numbers last year would make him worth it at this spot.
16. Baron Davis – See above, substitute New Orleans for Toronto; do you feel lucky, punk?
17. Jason Kidd – His best years are behind him but should rack up the assists with lobs to VC and RJ.
18. Mike Bibby – The FBB favorite is as solid as they come; assists should go up without Webber.
19. Steve Nash – As long as Phoenix keeps running, he’ll keep lots of his value.
20. Brad Miller – Not a single complaint about his game, but another to have never appeared in 80 contests, with 45 games missed over the last three seasons.
21. Yao Ming – He’s still improving and actually got to rest this summer, so maybe he’ll be able to approach 35 mpg.
22. Steve Francis – Like Marbury, his bad real-life rep makes him slightly underrated from a fantasy perspective.
23. Ray Allen – A bit overrated; Stojakovic should bring back similar or better numbers at a better value.
24. Peja Stojakovic – Speak of the devil … remember, he was a top-5 player just two years ago and shot 48% three straight seasons before last.
25. Jermaine O’Neal – This seems about for the three-category contributor.
26. Pau Gasol – We’ve been fooled before, but Memphis cleaned house, so expect more minutes and career best numbers.
27. Ron Artest – Ignore that seven-game line from last year; he’ll rack up steals, but percentages will be closer to 45 and 75, if he’s lucky.
28. Chris Bosh – Will be asked to carry a big load, which is great news for fantasy owners
29. Joe Johnson – Always sees plenty of minutes and the Hawks have 70 million reasons to make sure that continues.
30. Rashard Lewis – Perennially underrated and even has room to improve.