Instead of making you dig through the archives for all of our content from the past month or so, here it is in one easy to find place.

Team Previews
Featuring write-ups on 150 players, five per team.

Atlantic Division: New Jersey, New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Toronto
Central Division: Detroit, Indiana, Cleveland, Chicago, Milwaukee
Southeast Division: Miami, Washington, Orlando, Atlanta, Charlotte
Southwest Division: San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, Memphis, New Orleans
Northwest Division: Denver, Utah, Minnesota, Seattle, Portland
Pacific Division: Sacramento, Phoenix, Golden State, LA Lakers, LA Clippers

Position Tiers
Point Guard
Shooting Guard
Small Forward
Power Forward
Center

Mock Draft
Rounds 1-2
Round 3
Round 4
Round 5
Round 6

Also … Sleepers and Busts

Look for overall rankings during the week, along with some thoughts on some preseason happenings.

Just kidding, I still had one more team left. The Raptors are easy to forget about. After a rather disastrous season that saw the team trade its only franchise player for a collection of garbage and see him immediately regain his superstar aura, the Raptors had a highly criticized draft and didn’t add an impact player through free agency or trade. Well played. There’s every indication that it will be another long season in Toronto.

The Stud: Chris Bosh, PF
The continued ascension of Bosh was the bright spot in the Raptors’ season. Once Carter left town, Bosh took his game to another level and emerged as the team’s top offensive option. He took advantage of his youth by appearing in 81 games and being among the league leaders in minutes for big men. If Bosh appears in 80 games again there is little reason to think that he won’t show at least minor improvements in his game. But note I said minor improvement. Let’s look at some numbers:

Player A:
Season 1: 28.7 mpg, 10.4 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.6 bpg, 49%, 71%
Season 2: 38.9 mpg, 17.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.4 apg, 2.1 bpg, 50%, 75%

Player B:
Season 1: 33.5 mpg, 11.5 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 1.0 apg, 0.8 spg, 1.4 bpg, 46%, 70%
Season 2: 37.3 mpg, 16.8 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.9 apg, 0.9 spg, 1.4 bpg, 47%, 76%

Player A is Kevin Garnett and player B is Bosh. Lots of people want Bosh to make another big leap forward this year and someone might draft him expecting as much. But is it a sure thing? In his third season Garnett put up the following line:

Season 3: 39.3 mpg, 18.5 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.7 spg, 1.8 bpg, 49%, 74%

Continued steady improvement, but not a full-fledged breakout. That should be the expectation for Bosh this season. The fact that Toronto has such a lousy team and will have to rely heavily on Bosh will only help him, but it would still be wise to wait until the third round to consider him.

The Support: Jalen Rose, GF
Where there’s a crappy team, there is fantasy opportunity. Rose was in and out of Sam Mitchell’s doghouse last year, but then again who wasn’t? He turned in a fine season anyway, finishing 55^th on the player rater despite finishing with just 2.6 apg, his lowest since the 1998-99 season when he was a reserve on Indiana. Where did all that added value come from? FG%, of all places. After shooting in the very low-40s for two straight seasons Rose somehow bumped up to 45.5% last year. That’s a red flag right there. His numbers in most every other category – 3.4 boards, 0.8 steals, 0.1 blocks, 1.3 3s – were pedestrian at best and plain bad at worst. Since there’s so little talent around, Rose should be on the court plenty and should be worth using. But expect some overall regression, especially as he hoists more shots. He’s a mid-round pick for a team that needs a scorer.

The Supporting Support: Mike James, PG
My FBB cohort is concerned that some folks are getting a little too bullish on James now that he’s the unquestioned starter in Toronto. He might be right, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have plenty of value. James is on his sixth team since 2003 and will surely want to show that he’s more than a spare part. He finished a mediocre 112^th on the player rater last year, but that’s pretty impressive while averaging barely 25 mpg. He won’t get as many assists or steals as top point guards, but he’ll still be an overall asset in those categories while being a major contributor in 3s. In five games as a starter last year for Milwaukee he averaged 18.4/4.2/5.2 with 2.4 3s and 1.4 steals in 34.6 mpg. Extremely small sample, sure, but it shows what he’s capable of if he’s the man. This is the kind of guy that winning teams will snag as a third point guard/utility guy in the last third of the draft.

The Sleeper: Matt Bonner, PF
The Raptors were smart to re-sign the Florida grad, who showed a very well-rounded game in his rookie season. He shot 53% from the field and was a high-percentage three-point shooter, if not a high-volume one. This is a very thin team, and though the Raptors would like to avoid using Bosh as a center, their best lineup might be Bosh at the 5 with Bonner at the 4 and Loren Woods and Rafael Araujo on the bench, or in the stands, or back at home, just to be safe. Bonner won’t win any titles for you, but if given the right opportunity, he could be a low-risk roster filler.

The Slacker: Morris Peterson, GF
He’ll have value as long as he’s starting, but people seem to still be waiting for Peterson to break out. Well, he’s 28 and has played five full seasons in the league – it’s not happening. He is what he is, which is someone who can help you in 3s when he’s getting PT. He hasn’t missed a game in three straight seasons, so he’s a good guy to have around if you have some brittle players since you know MoPete can be plugged in when necessary. But he’s a career 42% shooter, and doesn’t have a knack for getting rebounds, assists or steals. He’s like a poor man’s Rose, and that’s not all that much.

And we finally finish our team writeups by looking at the NBA’s youngest team, the Bobcats. It was an uneventful offseason, as the Bobcats stayed out of the free agent fray and didn’t get the top draft choice they were hoping for, settling for a couple of undersized Tar Heels. Will they be able to break 20 wins this season? I say no.

The Stud: Emeka Okafor, FC
Okafor’s rookie season went about as well as could have been expected. People thought he might turn out to be a Ben Wallace-type player with more natural scoring ability, and that still seems like it could be the case. Folks expecting close to 3 bpg were probably disappointed that he managed just 1.7, but it’s not too surprising given rookie adjustments. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him get that number slightly above 2 this year, and while that seems like just a small jump, that can mean a couple of points in the standings. He was a rebounding machine, averaging nearly 11 per contest and he even grabbed close to a steal per game. His percentages are awful – 45% from a center really hurts you, and 61% from the line is just bad – and he needs to at least improve the former. He’s a fine fourth rounder.

The Support: Gerald Wallace, GF
Wallace was an extremely popular sleeper pick last season, which made him someone to avoid. And he did indeed have a very rocky season, but quietly finished 87^th on the player rater despite missing 12 games. “Failed” sleeper picks usually make good value picks the following season, and that looks like it might be the case with Wallace. He signed a three-year contract with the Bobcats, which means he is part of their plans, so his playing time should be relatively assured. Wallace has a similar skill set to Josh Smith, except he helps more in steals than blocks. In 30.7 mpg last season Wallace averaged 1.7 steals and 1.3 blocks, very impressive numbers for someone you can plug in at SG or SF. He’s a terrible shooter and that’s unlikely to change, but if he’s on the court for 35 mpg, he’ll grab enough steals and blocks to warrant a spot in lineups.

The Supporting Support: Primoz Brezec, C
I was tempted to label him “the slacker,” but since he’s one of the few players who seems to be guaranteed PT on this team it didn’t seem fair. That said, I would not feel too comfortable with Brezec as one of my starting centers. Why? Two numbers – 7.4 and 0.8. Those were Brezec’s averages in rebounds and blocks last year, and that’s just not acceptable from a center. And it’s not like he was lacking PT. It’s hard to see him getting much more than the 31.6 mpg he received last year, just due to basic big man conditioning. His 51% is very welcome and he’s a solid free throw shooter for a big man, but he seems best suited to a late pick, utility player.

The Sleeper: Raymond Felton, G
I’m not really a fan of Felton, and he seems quite likely to start the season in a time-sharing situation with 2004-2005 fantasy revelation Brevin Knight. But he is a point guard with great playmaking skills who should be able to rack up steals. The main reason he qualifies as a sleeper is because there is no way Knight can match last year’s numbers and there’s a very good chance he will experience a drastic decline. If that’s the case, then the Bobcats will quite possibly hand the reigns to Felton to see if indeed he was worth the 5^th overall pick. He improved his three-point shooting dramatically in his final season at UNC, but don’t expect that to carry over completely in his first season in the NBA. He seems like a T.J. Ford clone.

The Slacker: Brevin Knight, PG
I’ll admit that I’m a John Hollinger worshipper now. Have you seen his profiles of every single player in the league, up now on ESPN.com? Now that is some good reading. I was going to buy his book, but I can’t imagine it will be much more in depth than what’s up there now. Anyway, he seems rather sure that Knight’s season last year was a classic fluke and that he will come crashing back down to earth this season. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Felton will be a better player, but for a second-year team looking to the future, they’ll almost certainly give PT that’s up in the air to Felton as the season progresses. If he wins the starting job out of the preseason he should be worth using, but betting on solid production for the entire year is setting yourself up for disappointment.

Knowing who to draft, obviously, is important. Equally important is to know who (whom?) NOT to draft. The guys listed below are guys that we feel might be over-valued, which isn’t to say that they shouldn’t be drafted, but you should let them slide past their “projected” spots for a few rounds. Most of these guys are long-time veterans who are losing these luster – others are overhyped young’uns. Each are dangerous.

PG: Sam Cassell, LAC – Cassell was no doubt a disappointment last year both for fantasy owners and his real-life owners. Now that he’s been shipped to the Clippers and handed the starting job over Shaun Livingston, some might expect a rejuvenated Cassell. Don’t be fooled – he’s simply holding the spot for Livingston, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the youngster starting by Thanksgiving. Other potential busts: Jamaal Tinsley, Mike James.

SG: Eddie Jones, Mem – This is it for Eddie Jones as far as fantasy value goes. In an ideal situation last year, getting 35 mpg as a third/fourth option with plenty of outside looks, only his three-pointers really kept him off the waiver wire. This year, expect no more than 25-27 mpg, and a spot on your bench until he proves himself worthy. Other potential busts: Michael Finley, Ben Gordon.

SF: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Sac – Back in his heyday, Abdur-Rahim was probably overrated as a fantasy player, putting up some of the emptiest 20 and 10 seasons this side of Zack Randolph. Now that he’s getting older, on a team where he’s no better than the fourth option, and competing for playing time with Kenny Thomas and Corliss Williamson, we’re very happy to wait until the 6th or 7th round before considering him. Other potential busts: Mike Dunleavy, Darius Miles.

PF: Juwan Howard, Hou – I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know with Howard. His value is borderline at absolute best. He might go in the last couple of rounds but I wouldn’t even spend a pick on him there. His health and playing time are both in doubt, and there are much better risks to take late. Other potential busts: PJ Brown, Keith Van Horn.

C: Michael Olowokandi, C – We’ve got a saying here in Washington: Fool me once, shame – shame on you. Fool me twice … uh … I won’t get fooled again! Olowokandi has been fooling fantasy players just about every year, and now, with a rotation at center and a coach he’s off on the wrong foot with, Kandi man has finally given us a reason not to draft him this year. Thanks, Mike! Other potential busts: Eddy Curry, Joel Przybilla.

Anyone else out there that some of you guys think are overvalued?

And this is why I will always refuse to be in a league that drafts more than a week before the season starts. There’s just too much risk involved. There’s almost always a situation like this that comes up, and someone starts off at an extreme disadvantage. And that’s no fun. And remember, this stuff is supposed to be fun, in addition to financially rewarding and ego-boosting.

For all of you folks out there that spent a first round pick on Amare Stoudemire – and if he’s on your team, then you did exactly that unless you are in a keeper league or a retard league– I feel for you. You’re probably thinking that your season is ruined and hopeless three weeks before tipoff. And, I hate to say this, but you’re probably right. Hey, we tell it like it is here at FBB. Not only are you missing a first round pick, but you are seriously screwed at center, since you probably felt that you could sleep on the position a bit after drafting a stud like Amare. The word right now is that Stoudemire will miss around four months, which takes us to mid-February. That’s almost certainly a best-case scenario. Assuming he can make it back in mid-February, he will be slowly worked back into shape, meaning that he would be back to full speed by early March, in time for the last 20 or so games of the season. And remember, this is a best-case scenario. So that means that realistically, you can’t really count on Amare for anything this year.

Now, he could prove us wrong. I hope that he does, because for my money, there’s not a more exciting player in the league – LeBron, Dwyane, AI, all those guys included. He’s young and is a physical specimen, so if anyone is going to recover in the “best case” times, it would be someone like Amare. That said, the Suns will obviously want to protect their $73 million investment for the future, and if it’s looking like a lost season – which is quite a possibility now, given what the Suns lost this offseason and the depth of the Western Conference – they may just give him the entire year off. So Amare plummets down draft boards, from the very top to nothing more than a late-round gamble.

His absence obviously effects the entire Phoenix team, some positive, some negative. Let’s take a quick look…

Steve Nash – Nash will obviously be hurt by Amare’s absence, as it will be very tough for “the MVP” to match last year’s 11.5 apg. Now that he doesn’t have the best finisher in the league to dish to, we should see that number drop back to around 8. Remember, when he was running the show on all those high scoring teams in Dallas Nash averaged more than 8 apg just once, his final season there when he dropped 8.8. The three seasons before that it was 7.3, 7.7, 7.3. It’s hard to see any reason why he should average much more than that this year. He’ll be called on to pick up some of the scoring slack, but his career high is 17.9 ppg, so an absolute best-case scenario would see him scoring around 20 per contest. His dynamite FG% should also take a hit as he shoots more and has fewer offensive weapons to take away attention. He’s clearly the biggest loser (besides Amare, obviously) and should be knocked down at least a few spots on your draft lists.

Shawn Marion – I expect Marion’s value to change very little based on this injury and he could actually benefit quite a bit. Marion put up brilliant numbers before Amare, while Amare was developing and when Amare became a stud. After averaging a career high 11.3 boards last year he’ll be looked at to pick up some of Amare’s slack, so don’t expect any drop off there. Much of Marion’s value comes from his steals and blocks, and he should be fine there without Amare. He should see his scoring bump up past 20 ppg and might even hit a few more 3s in the process, although his FG% should drop back to around 45%. Still, the bottom line is that Marion is very clearly a first round pick.

Kurt Thomas – Man, you think the Suns wish they still had Stephen Hunter around? Thomas should see lots of PT, which can only be good for his value, it’s just that he’s a pretty limited upside player. He’s always solid, but he’s a 32-year old who will once again be playing out of position at center. He’s not going to suddenly start blocking shots, hitting 3s or dishing assists. He has a solid shot of being a 15/10 guy, and the fact that he’s played at least 80 games in four straight seasons makes you think he’ll be able to hold up under the increased workload. Bump him up a few spots, but don’t expect any miracles.

Paul Shirley – Expect Shirley to take Stoudemire’s place in the starting lineup and to put up around 17 and 8 while being an asset in blocked shots and entertaining blogging. Ha, just making sure you’re paying attention.

Raja Bell, Leandro Barbosa, Jim Jackson, Boris Diaw, Eddie House, James Jones – The only other proven big man on the Suns besides Thomas is Brian Grant, who just doesn’t seem capable of being much of an asset anymore. He was only ever valuable for rebounding, and as the Suns are forced to adjust, they will probably find it easier to go with a lineup of Nash at the 1, Marion at the 4, Thomas at the 5, and two of the six guys above at the 2 and 3. Now there were a lot of numbers in that sentence, but the key one to notice is one that I spelled out – six. It’s all about PT, we’ve said that a million times. With six guys battling for time at two spots, it’s not a sure thing that any of these players will see enough time on the court to amass value. The smart money on the player to have the most value is on Raja Bell, who was already penciled in as a starter and has a solid all-around game and could average 15 ppg while chipping in a little over a 3 and a steal per contest. Jim Jackson is a known marksman from downtown, but even when he was seeing 40+ minutes per game in Houston he was barely able to contribute in any other categories. Boris Diaw was apparently a revelation over the summer, but he’s still Boris Diaw. James Jones managed to have a few weeks – OK, one week — of fantasy relevance during the brawl fallout last year. Eddie House has always been a capable scorer and pickpocket (11.1 ppg and 1.9 spg in just 23 minutes per in 13 games for Charlotte last year) but is just too small for a SG. Barbosa has yet to establish himself in the NBA. Basically, if any of these players establishes himself as a fixture on the court, he should be worthy of a roster spot in most leagues. But until we see how the preseason and early stages of the season play out, it’s too tough to know. Bell is certainly worthy of being drafted in most leagues, but with the other guys, it’s just too hard to tell.

That’s a whole lot of money for Michael Redd and Bobby Simmons. It’s the way of the financial landscape in the NBA, but it doesn’t change the reality that the Bucks spent a combined $137 million on two nice – maybe even very nice – players. But no one will mistake either of them for great players. The addition of Andrew Bogut and the likely return of T.J. Ford are both positive developments, but this is still a team a very long ways from winning a playoff series.

The Stud: Michael Redd, SG
Just because he’s the stud on this team, don’t think he should be one of the studs on your team. If Redd is one of your top four players, your team is in trouble. He just doesn’t hit enough 3s. I don’t know what happened since the 2002-2003 season when Redd hit 2.2 3pg in just 28.2 mpg. Since then his minutes have been 36.8 and 38.0, but his 3pg have been 1.6 and 1.4. That’s not going to cut it for a guy who is well below average in every other category except points and FT%. He’s simply a mid-round pick.

The Support: Bobby Simmons, GF
Now that’s a well-timed breakout season. A guy who couldn’t sniff the court for brutal Wizards teams a few years ago parlays a nice 75 games into $47 million. The best way to reward those who forked over that cash probably isn’t to get arrested for sexual assault – even if it is “just” fourth degree – before playing a single minute. Assuming this doesn’t linger into the season, Simmons should have every opportunity to match last season’s numbers. It’s always risky to bank on a player who posts across the board career highs in a contract season then gets his fat contract, so don’t go completely nuts. But he brings a little bit of everything to the table with blocks being his only truly weak category. He should actually probably be picked slightly ahead of Redd.

The Supporting Support: Andrew Bogut, C
Predicting what rookies will do is always one of the toughest parts of fantasy forecasting. Bogut was a monster on the boards while at Utah, and it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to having to deal with players who are much more athletic. He shouldn’t be counted on to block a whole lot of shots; if one of the great college shot blockers in recent memory, Emeka Okafor, could only tally 1.7 bpg in his rookie season, expecting Bogut to even match that would be wishful thinking. Like Okafor, Bogut was seen as a polished big man, perhaps lacking superstar upside. If Bogut could match Okafor’s 15 and 11, there would likely be no complaints. I would probably take the under on both of those. Bogut shot 62% his senior season … Okafor shot 60% in the Big East and saw that translate to 44.7% in his rookie year. So don’t expect huge things there. He should be an OK second center, not much more. Unless he is. Damn rookies.

The Sleeper: Dan Gadzuric, C
If you are a big man, you will get paid. Gadzuric’s six year, $36 million contract raised lots of eyebrows, but then again, it’s the same deal that Etan Thomas and Mark Blount signed last year. That’s the going rate for serviceable big men. But count me in the camp that believes Gadzuric can be more than serviceable, especially for fantasy purposes. Simply put, the man is a rebound and block machine. He ranked second in the league in rebounds per minute and 18th in the league in blocks per minute. He’s also a career 52.5% shooter. He’s never really received large amounts of playing time and lots of that is his own fault – he commits fouls by the bushel. Bogut will take over the starting center spot, so Gadzuric should see an even more reduced role … or will he? Joe Smith is penciled in as the starting PF, but he’s Joe Smith. You know exactly what you’ll get from him, and the Bucks don’t really know that with Gadzuric, so they should think about playing Bogut and Gadzuric together, as John Hollinger has suggested. Basically, if Gadzuric can be on the court for 30 minutes, he will be deserving of a roster spot in all leagues.

The Slacker: T.J. Ford, PG
This is what happens when you have a two-man operation. BV just picked Ford as one of his sleepers for this season. I see no reason for this. First off, Ford missed an entire season, which saps his development, forgetting any lingering injury issues for a moment. Well, that was a nice moment, now how about those lingering injury issues? Coming out of college, lots of people were concerned that since Ford was so small and played such an up-tempo style, he would be prone to injury. And that’s exactly what happened. And then there’s his performance. As a rookie he shot 38% from the field and averaged just 0.1 3pg. Yes, the 6.5 apg in just 27 minutes was quite impressive, and despite his small stature he’s actually a decent rebounder and he gets his share of steals. But with his injury past and especially with the fact that Maurice Williams is still around – and really, Williams last year was about as good as we could expect Ford to be this year – Ford shouldn’t be worth much. Since you can never have enough point guards, he’s surely worth a late flyer, but don’t count on him as one of your top options.

In the fantasy world, there’s nothing better than drafting a sleeper late in the draft and seeing him live up to your hopes. Last year, anyone could draft Michael Redd in the 4th or 5th round and see him put up nice numbers. But he wasn’t nearly as happy as the guy who drafted Joe Johnson in the 8th or 9th round and saw him put up even better numbers. We can preach to you all day the importance of the scarcity positions, or who you should take with your 3rd pick, or which studs are big time injury risks. But fantasy seasons can be won with a couple of successful sleeper picks. Here are some of our favorites for this year:

PG: TJ Ford, Mil - One of my favorite strategies in drafting in any fantasy sport is to pick guys that others may have just forgotten about. Ford was a popular mid-late round pick his rookie year, and there’s no reason to think that just because he was hurt last year that his skills diminished at all. Other potential sleepers: Jameer Nelson, Sebastian Telfair.

SG: Bonzi Wells, Sac – Just like the Denver Broncos’ backfield, whoever plays major minutes in Sacramento has great fantasy value. When Cuttino Mobley got traded there last year, he responded with career highs in assists and FG%, while posting his highest ppg since 2002. Between the big jump in mpg that Bonzi will get from leaving Memphis and the fact that he’s entering fantasy heaven with the Kings means he’s got all sorts of sleeper potential this year. Other potential sleepers: Marquis Daniels, JR Smith.

SF: Eddie Griffin, Min – Given playing time, this guy could be a fantasy monster. Now that he’s in the rotation at C in Minnesota, he might be finding himself some more PT and more fantasy value. If he got 35 mpg he could potentially end up with over 3 blocks, 2 3’s, and a double-double. That is a serious outside shot, but still. Other potential sleepers: Trevor Ariza, Travis Outlaw.

PF: Darius Songaila, Chi – This is a pretty big sleeper here. Before the Curry deal Darius looked primed for a breakout season, but now there are more bodies to compete with for playing time, notably Michael Sweetney. Still, if the playing time comes his way, Songaila will be a solid contributor. Other potential sleepers: Kwame Brown, Al Jefferson.

C: Chris Mihm, LAL – With rumors of Andrew Bynum potentially spending some time in the D-League, Chris Mihm’s draft stock rises pretty quickly. He’s got double-double potential given the minutes. And it’s looking like he might get them. Other potential sleepers: Zaza Pachulia, Nazr Mohammed.

Now of course, this here blogosphere is all about sharing information. Anyone else have any sleepers they’ve got their eye on?

One of the more dramatic, drawn-out controversies of the NBA offseason was the Joe Johnson/Hawks ownership saga. When all was said and done the Hawks got their man – for better or worse – and a guy who was the fourth best player on his team last year is now the franchise man in Atlanta. Whatever, guys. Marvin Williams comes on board via the draft and Zaza Pachulia via free agency, and both of them are raw but have considerable upside. Which is something that can be said about this year’s version of the Hawks. Well, not counting the considerable upside part.

The Stud: Joe Johnson, GF
Johnson built off an incredible end to the 2003-2004 season to be one of the most well-rounded players of last year, finishing a mighty impressive 22^nd on the player rater. His numbers actually stayed relatively steady except for two major changes – a FG% jump from 43 to 46 and a 3 pointers jump from 1.0 to 2.2. Along with solid scoring, assist and rebound numbers it was easy to look past his relatively ordinary hustle category stats. The big question now is whether he can handle being The Man and how this whole point guard situation will work out. Even if Johnson isn’t the official point guard, he will have the rock more than anyone on the team, so expect an uptick from last year’s 3.6 apg. He will be harder pressed to match his gains in FG% and 3s, and the supporting cast leaves a lot to be desired. But this is a guy who has two straight years of not missing a game while averaging 40 minutes per contest. Combine that with the fact that he’s the unquestioned #1 option and we like that a lot. Should be gone by the end of round 3.

The Support: Josh Smith, GF
I’m pretty predictable with the players I like and dislike. I don’t like players whose main strength is scoring. I love players who contribute in the hustle categories. I like players who offer a competitive advantage by excelling in a category that other players at that same position rarely do. So it’s obvious that I’m a huge Josh Smith mark. In just 27.7 mpg last year, the kid averaged 2 blocks per game! As a small forward! This is just absolutely nuts. The only fantasy sports comparison I can come up with is in baseball a closer striking out close to 200 guys. Only nine players blocked more shots per game than J-Smooth. The rest of his game is a little rough, but his FG% will remain good enough since he mostly dunks, he grabs rebounds at an extremely high rate and he should get at least one steal per contest. It’s a bit worrisome that the entire Hawks team seems to be comprised of small forwards, but Smith will get his minutes. In just 74 games at 27.7 minutes per, he finished as the 85^th best player. He was top 50 in the last month. Expect some inconsistency, but 200 blocked shots from a small forward has a way of making inconsistency easier to deal with.

The Supporting Support: Josh Childress, GF
Assuming the Joe Johnson PG experiment takes, the Hawks will probably try to have a starting lineup featuring Smith, Childress and Al Harrington, giving all three the chance to be solid selections. After the all-star break, Childress was a legitimate fantasy option for the rest of the season. He looks like another Tayshaun Prince-type, a rangy player with a broad skill set who doesn’t really dominate in a single aspect of the game. If he can maintain those second half numbers – 14.5/7.7/2.4 with 1.2 spg, 0.4 bpg on 49% shooting – he’ll be well worth a mid-round pick. You could do worse than a young player with very solid percentages who grabs a handful of steals.

The Sleeper: Zaza Pachulia, FC
Pachulia is basically assured considerable minutes at center for the Hawks since even John Hollinger (sorry Chad, the torch has been officially passed) probably couldn’t tell you anything about any of his backups. That alone should make him an attractive pick, but he’s got a solid game as well. He finished 25^th in the league in rebounds per minute, so he shouldn’t have much problem averaging double digits if he sees around 35 mpg. He could certainly block more shots, but he averaged more than half a steal per game in just 19 mpg last season, a very solid number for a center. Some people might overvalue him, as it shouldn’t be forgotten that just two seasons ago he averaged 3.3 ppg on 39% shooting for the Magic. He’s just 21, so improvement is expected, but we can’t be sure of exactly how much.

The Slacker: Al Harrington, SF
I was pretty down on Baby Al last season. Everyone was expecting huge things at the beginning of the season since he was going to be one of the only real weapons on the team. I saw a player who received 30 mpg each of the two previous seasons and never really established himself as anything special. Some people were disappointed in his performance, but what were they expecting? A line of 17.6/7.0/3.2 on 46% shooting and adding 1.3 steals is just fine. Were they expecting 25 ppg and a few 3s? Harrington is the more expendable than Smith, Childress and Williams, so a trade isn’t out of the question. That, combined with the presence of some other scorers makes Harrington a likely disappointment again.

This is why I waited to tackle the Bulls. It took forever, but they finally sorted out their big man situation, signing Tyson Chandler to a big contract and shipping Eddy Curry to New York for Mike Sweetney and Tim Thomas. The Bulls will once again have an incredibly young team and it will be interesting to see if they can return to the playoffs.

The Stud: Kirk Hinrich, G
Regular readers know that I’m a huge fan of Captain Kirk. I sung his praises before last season, spent a fourth round pick on him and it paid off nicely as he finished 33^rd on the player rater. I’m expecting things to get even better this year. He started alongside Chris Duhon for much of the year last season and was often playing the 2 instead of his normal 1. This caused a drop in his assists from 6.8 in his rookie season to 6.4 last year. With Ben Gordon expected to occupy the starting SG role this season, expect Hinrich’s assist numbers to rebound. Besides his 40% shooting – which you can deal with from the PG position – there’s nothing to complain about. Look for 3.5 to 4 combined 3s and steals per game, top 10 assist numbers and above-average rebounding for a point guard. Expect another top 40 – and perhaps top 30 – finish.

The Support: Tyson Chandler, PF
More or less, he’s Marcus Camby, fragility included. He managed to play in 80 games last year, although it probably helped that his PT was limited to 27.4 mpg. With Curry gone and lots of money in Chandler’s bank account, the Bulls will be counting on even bigger things from him this season. He won’t score much – low double digits seems to be his upside – but that’s fine with us as long as he grabs 10 boards, blocks two shots and makes half his shots from the field. He basically did all of that last year, and if you prorate his numbers out to 34 mpg you end up with 12.0 rpg and 2.2 bpg. There’s not a fantasy owner in the world that won’t take those numbers. He did miss 47 games just two seasons ago, and for any player this young to have recurring back problems is worrisome. But he should be taken in the first half of your draft. Note that he will start the season with only PF eligibility.

The Supporting Support: Mike Sweetney, PF
Assuming Sweetney captures the starting PF gig, he could emerge as a sort of poor man’s Zach Randolph. (Well, you know, as long as Zach Randolph himself isn’t a poor man’s Zach Randolph again.) Sweetney has a very well-defined skill set so you know what you’ll be getting. He’ll shoot a high percentage – likely over 50% – he’ll be among the top rate-rebounders in the league and he’ll score enough to help you break even in that category. He won’t be of much help in the hustle categories which means you shouldn’t count on him as much more than a utility option.

The Sleeper: Darius Songaila, PF
If you look at Sweetney’s and Songaila’s numbers from last year side-by-side, it’s pretty hard to differentiate them.
Sweetney: 19.6 mpg, 8.4/5.4/0.6, 53.1% FG, 74.9% FT, 0.4 steals, 0.4 blocks
Songaila: 20.6 mpg, 7.5/4.3/1.4, 52.7 FG%, 84.7% FT, 0.6 steals, 0.2 blocks
Sweetney has the big advantage in rebounding which makes him the deserving starter at the 4, but we all know that fantasy basketball success if all about opportunity. Should Sweetney go down with an injury or be ineffective, Songaila could likely step in and offer similar production. This doesn’t mean he’s worth drafting, and with Malik Allen and Othella Harrington around he might not even get the chance, but Songaila has a pretty well-rounded game.

The Slacker: Ben Gordon, G
Exciting to watch? Check. Dynamite scorer? Check. One of the more amazing float shot artists around? Check. Overrated fantasy player this season? Check. Until Gordon shows that he’s more than a scorer he will likely be overvalued. Yes, he could approach – or even top – 2 3pg this year and as long as he does lock down the starting job he’s obviously worth drafting in all leagues. But Gordon is like a point guard without the assists and steals. Young players like him are capable of making huge leaps forward, but let someone else overpay for that possibility.

Ah, centers. Just like running backs in football or closers in baseball, you will often find yourself picking one when there is better talent elsewhere on the draft board. They’re such a commodity – especially if your league, like most, has 2 starting center spots. With the defection of Dirk Nowitzki to PF, we find ourselves with a new King of Centers. But much more important than those centers you can take early are the ones you’re forced to take late. Let’s sort through the royalty, and the rubble:

Tier One:
Amare Stoudamire, Tim Duncan.
These are the only two – let me repeat here – ONLY TWO centers who should be taken in the first round. There is just far too much talent on the board to give up in order to grab a good-but-not-great center in the first round. Stoudamire is the new top center, more because of the question marks surrounding every other top big man out there, be it free throws, injuries, or a combination of both.

Tier Two:
Brad Miller, Shaquille O’Neal, Yao Ming.
That’s right, we’re putting Miller before O’Neal and Ming, and we’re not looking back. Granted, he’s a pretty big injury risk, but his assists, steals, and FT% are so strong from a C position. He’s Dirk-lite minus the 3’s. Shaq and Ming, you know exactly what you’re getting. These guys will be gone by the end of the second round.

Tier Three:
Ben Wallace, Zydraunas Ilgauskas.
These are the last of the totally solid centers, and once they’re gone, you can forget about centers until late in the fourth round. Granted, these aren’t great options and both have their weaknesses, but if you’re really light on boards and blocks going into the third round you have to consider them.

Tier Four:
Marcus Camby, Emeka Okafor, Jamaal Magloire.
If you’ve grabbed a center early, these guys are terrific second centers. If you haven’t grabbed a center early, I’d be very wary of taking any of them, as they all have questionable value. If you’ve waited this long to take a big man, you can likely wait a little longer.

Tier Five:
Sam Dalembert, Joel Przybilla, Andrew Bogut, Stromile Swift, Nenad Krstic, Raef LaFrentz
Every draft sees a run on centers, and this is where it happens. These guys could all be taken in the span of one round. If you’ve waited, you HAVE to get one of these guys. If your two starting centers are both below this tier, you’ve officially got a problem. This is the official ‘high-risk high-reward’ tier.

Tier Six:
Eddy Curry, Brendan Haywood, Lorenzen Wright, Erik Dampier, Primoz Brezec, Chris Kaman.
Here’s the danger tier. Any of these could end up with something near a double double and a couple blocks. They could also end up with 7 points, 7 boards, a block, and a spot on your bench. I would spend most of my research time on this tier and tier five.

Tier Seven:
Mehmet Okur, Mark Blount, Chris Mihm, Chris Andersen, Adonal Foyle, Nene Hilario, Nazr Mohammed, Kelvin Cato, Dan Gadzuric, Channing Frye.
If you have to draft any of these guys, you’re in some trouble. If you have to start them, you’re in serious trouble. That said, there may be some gems here, and if you really like one of them and want to spend a VERY late round pick on any of them, it’s OK by us.