As if you needed anyone to tell you differently, Dirk Nowitzki is the unquestioned star of this team. Even when his shot isn’t falling, like the past couple games, where he’s shot a miserable 17-for-51, Dirk is still able to be a real asset. He still puts plenty of points on the board, makes his free throws, hits some 3s, grabs a ton lot of boards and throws in a block or steal. But there are some interesting trends for Dirk so far this year. He’s attempting 19.6 shots per game so far, which is the highest in his career. He’s being looked to even more on offense and seems to be taking more shots that he creates on his own, which aren’t always the highest percentage shots, hence his 44.7% shooting, lowest since his rookie season. He’s never shot below 46%, and you’d like to think he can at least get back to that number, but when you then see that he’s shooting a remarkable 46% from 3-point land on nearly 5 attempts per game, you start to think that it might actually get worse, not better. His owners would probably take the 1% hit in FG% to get an entire extra 3 per game, but that might be a bit much to ask. Dirk’s steals and blocks are also down from recent years, but you can feel more comfortable chalking that up to a small sample size so far. Earlier this week I talked about Kirk Hinrich not getting as many steals as past years, and then he turns around with a 5-steal game last night. Dirk has averaged between 1.0 and 1.4 steals and between 1.0 and 1.5 blocks each of the last five seasons. He’s at 0.5 and 1.0 right now, but it’s hard to see any reason why he shouldn’t end up at his averages. His assists are lower than any season since his rookie, but that’s one more likely to stay that way, given that he’s shooting even more. He scared some owners earlier this year with back problems, but he never missed a game and has never missed more than six in any season. He’s as much of a sure thing as there is, and that always makes him one of the best guys to put together a deal for.

I slotted Jason Terry at #32 on my preseason rankings, a bit higher than most other places I saw. But it was pretty much a no-brainer – here’s a guy who managed to finish 30th on the player rater last year in just 30 mpg. Now he was going to be locked in as the starting PG and #2 scoring option and he missed 9 games in the first six years of his career. This is the kind of guy to have on your team, because his perceived value is almost always lower than his actual value. And that’s the whole key to success, after all. He’s at #36 on the player rater right now and should stay in that general area all season. He’s a point guard who’s averaging just 4.1 apg, so it’s possible his owner is frustrated at the lack of assists. If you can make a move for him, I would highly recommend it. Like Mike Bibby, he’s a point guard, but is really more of a scorer and has never really racked up the assists. Save for a 7.4 apg season in Atlanta, he’s been between 4.9 and 5.7 in all of his other seasons besides his rookie campaign. He’ll likely finish around 5 per game, which is still a plus. He doesn’t have a standout number in any single category, which is another reason why his perceived value is probably lower than it truly is. But except for rebounds, he contributes across the board. OK, his 0.4 blocks will drop back down to his normal 0.2, but that’s normal for a PG. But it’s time to start considering whether he really has become a lights-out shooter. He never shot above 43.6% in Atlanta, but in his first year in Dallas he managed to shoot 50%. It was on just 9.3 shots per game, far down from 15 or so he averaged in Atlanta, so that seemed to be the logical explanation. But in 14 shots per game this season he’s still at a sterling 49%, and he’s even shooting more 3s. He’s still a 44% career shooter, and there’s still plenty of reason to except a somewhat precipitous drop in that percentage. But even keeping it in the 45-46% range will help him keep plenty of value there.

Erick Dampier is one of those guys you just don’t want to mess with. He’s a pretty confounding player, actually. Just five minutes into last night’s game against the Bucks, Dampier had 6 points and 3 boards and seemed to be on his way to one of his good games. But in 23 more minutes he went 0-for-2 from the field and scored just a single point. This really isn’t that out of the ordinary for Dampier, either. The Mavs try to establish him as an inside presence early on, but he either gets himself into foul trouble or loses interest and the Mavs decide to go with DeSagana Diop at center or just use a smaller lineup. Dampier’s had just three useful games this season out of 14. That’s not a very good percentage. If you have him on your team, he’s the kind of guy that will make you make sure you draft two reliable centers the next season. Well, assuming you play in a two center league, which you should, because that can really separate the fantasy boys from the fantasy men. Depending on what league you are in, there are anywhere from 8 to 12 reliable fantasy centers around, most likely. And that includes guys like Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Raef Lafrentz who are prone to throwing up clunkers. As for Diop, yes, he blocks shots, but that is truly all he does. If you’re starting him, you are probably in the middle of the pack, at best.

Devin Harris I’ve written plenty about already. You know I love him, and Avery Johnson seems to like him too, as evidenced by all of the crunch time PT he’s been getting. But he still doesn’t want to start him. I mean, Darrell Armstrong getting the nod over you is one thing. He’s a seasoned vet who can bring a defensive intensity. But when an undrafted rookie like Josh Powell gets the starting nod before you do, that’s saying something. He’s still intriguing in the deepest of leagues, but since the very durable Terry is the one that’s blocking him from a starting gig, it’s hard to see Harris being a no-brainer fantasy starter this year. In time. I wrote about Marquis Daniels recently, too. He’s just playing a lot more passively this year. Here’s a guy who averaged 7.3 FGA per game in 18.6 mpg in his rookie season and 8.4 FGA per game in 23.5 mpg last season. So this season he’s averaging 33.2 mpg. At those rates, he should be averaging 12.4 FGA per game. But instead he’s at just 8.6. You can blame some of this on the me-first tendencies of many of his teammates – guys like Dirk, Terry, Josh Howard, Keith Van Horn, even Devin Harris are usually looking out for themselves. So Daniels has picked up some of slack with a career high 2.9 apg, but this isn’t an impressive number or really out of line with what he should be averaging with his increased time.

If Jerry Stackhouse ever comes back, it’s a lot more likely that he’ll mess up other players’ fantasy value instead of actually having any on his own. A guy who can only score, but does so while shooting 40% and doesn’t even start is the ultimate drag. If you can steal Josh Howard off his owner right now, I’d do it. It’s tough to make an offer for a guy who is out for two weeks, especially a fair offer, but Howard is a legit top 50 player and even though ankle injuries have a tendency to linger, I’ll trust in youth and think that he’ll have an easier time putting it behind him for good than an older player might. OK, that’s all the time for today…

With most teams having played somewhere between 12 and 14 games so far, we’re still only about 15-18% of the way through the season. What that means for your fantasy team is that it’s still early. Really early. Early enough that with all the trades (both in real life and in your fantasy league), injuries, PT battles, and other factors still to come, it’s not yet time to really take a look at your standings to find statistical categories that you think you can make a run in. Remember, your goal is to be in first place at the end of the year, not the middle. And no, I’m not just saying that just because I’m not in first place right now in my league.

Anyhow, the biggest part of fantasy basketball, obviously, is getting the best players on your team, keeping up on who’s worth picking up, and all the other things that we talk about here at FBB on an almost-daily basis. But another important part is managing the standings with an eye on the end of the year. And that’s what we’re going to talk about today, and we’ll revisit the subject every couple of weeks as the season progresses.. And despite it being really early in the year, some teams might be in position to take advantage of some things going on in the standings.

Some teams are right now dealing with some extremes. Some might be woefully far behind and thinking about punting a category (which is a whole different article). Others, though might be way far ahead in a category. How do you play this situation? For example, if you’re dominating the field in blocks, is it worth having Alonzo Mourning on your team? After all, if you’re really that far ahead in blocks, his value is really being wasted on your squad.

But, how much is enough? How far ahead do you have to be in a certain category before you can start trading for other concerns? Well, it’s different in every situation and I’m sure there’s some crazy algorithm to figure out an exact number, but instead, let’s look at some things to keep in mind:

Look at averages, not totals.
Sure, your standings are generally in rotisserie-style totals, but it’s just a quick cut-and-paste into a spreadsheet and you can turn your total numbers into averages. This will give you a much better idea of just how much leverage you have. For example, if your team as a whole is averaging 10 blocks per “night” (with a “night” being defined as all of your starters playing one game), and the guy behind you is averaging 8 blocks per game, you can trade away 2 blocks and still maintain your lead.

Where’s the “bunch”?
In a lot of statistical categories, you’ll notice bunches of guys in the same area. Now, as I said in the beginning, these bunches will shift as the season progresses, but nonetheless you have to be worried if the category you’re dominating has a bunch at the next tier, for a couple of reasons. One, the more teams there are somewhat near you, the more teams there are with a chance to make a move and pass you. Two, if you suffer an injury to a contributor in that category, you’re now at risk of moving really far down the standings there. If the bunch is further down in the standings, you’re at far less risk if you do decide to trade a contributor.

Who’s ready to make a move?
Remember, this early in the season, some teams’ current output is not necessarily representative of what they will do over the course of the year. Just like an injury can bring your team down, a player returning from injury can boost another team’s numbers. A great example is the return of Samuel Dalembert. If you’ve got what seems like a great lead in blocks, but the guy behind you has Dalembert, your lead really isn’t as good as it seems, because Dalembert will help the other team catch up to – and quick.

Now, if you take a look at all of these things and still decide that you can give up some of your advantage in that category, don’t just look to trade one-category guys. For example, if you’re dominating boards, don’t just try to trade players like Zach Randolph or Ben Wallace. Trading strong-rebounding PG’s like Jason Kidd or Andre Miller is just as helpful for your team if you can get quality guys who don’t rebound like Chauncey Billups or Steve Nash in return.

Remember, this early in the year, it’s dangerous to make moves like this, but making the right call could have huge benefits for your fantasy squad down the line.

Apologies for today’s abbreviated version. Computer issues, lots of words lost into the vortex, sad times. Check back this afternoon for the Comet Gain, The Hold Steady and The Fall portions.

Boston
Delonte West serves as a good example of why it’s never the worst idea to hold off on any roster moves the first week or so of the season. After seeing his 14/9/9, 3 steal, 4 block performance on opening night, it’s quite likely he was scooped up that evening. Now, if you drafted a crappy team, then all bets are off – if you had to go hang out with grandma and had autodraft pick for you and you got stuck with someone like Bob Sura in the last round, then yeah, go nuts in that first week. But if you took time ranking players before the season started and actually know what you’re doing – which I’m going to assume is the case with most people who come here – then stick by your guns. My last three choices this year were Brendan Haywood, T.J. Ford and Mike Sweetney. I wouldn’t be too happy if I dumped one of them for Delonte West, at this point. I did dump Sweetney eventually (as well as Josh Childress), but at least I was able to pick up two solid players who should be locked into starting jobs all year in Nick Collison and Brevin Knight. This doesn’t have much to do with anything and you might argue that I’m contradicting the point of this column – to identify point guards who might be coming into some more PT and jumping on them quickly. But even though West was a starting PG (even better, right?) sitting out there, he doesn’t quite qualify. We’re looking for guys who are seeing the big bulk of minutes because of some sort of injury, suspension, etc. A guy who gets 30 mpg with shaky production doesn’t quite qualify. West should be back and will regain his starting role, but Dan Dickau should have enough of a role to make West a very shaky play. Even though Doc Rivers started Orien Greene, Dickau was always the one out there when it mattered. He’s still enough of a liability on defense that West should still see enough minutes to be at least a fantasy tease, but definitely give him a game or two to see how the minutes shake out before deciding whether or not he belongs in your lineup.

Orlando
I have no earthly clue why the Magic decided to sign Keyon Dooling in the offseason. Yes, he looked good in the playoffs and yes, his length at PG can cause problems for opposing players. But he’s not really a point guard – just like the guy they already have as the centerpiece of their team – he’s young but not all that young, and Jameer Nelson only went for 15.0/3.8/4.6 with 1.5 steals and 1.3 3s over the season’s final 24 games. Instead of getting Nelson a shot at a starting job this year, it got him the coveted second guard off the bench role. Ugh. I still thought he was worth drafting and stashing because I thought the Magic just didn’t have that much firepower and they’d need Nelson to provide a spark. It took a couple of injuries, and he still hasn’t gotten a real showcase, but for those that forgot what Nelson could do, take note of the games on Nov. 23 and 25. With Steve Francis out in the first of those and Dooling out in the second, Nelson still didn’t start but saw 56 total minutes. So in 28 mpg, what did he do? How’s 19.5/2.5/4.0 with 1 steal and 1 3. OK, those aren’t mind-blowing numbers, but steals and 3s are fickle. The point is, he can deliver. But as tempting as he is, games like Saturday’s against the Heat prove an even more universal point – you can’t win with bench players. After those two impressive games and Dooling still out, some folks might have been tempted to plug him in. But bench players have such little margin for error, as Nelson proved. If you’re not productive right away, you won’t see enough time to make an impact. So Nelson still isn’t much help to anyone in fantasy land. But he still isn’t the worst person to keep on your bench. DeShawn Stevenson has been playing pretty well this season, but he’s still DeShawn Stevenson and he does have a bum knee. Nelson’s got enough — I don’t want to say upside, because he’s actually proven that he can do it – but whatever it is, Nelson has it, and is worth keeping on your bench.

Chicago
We’re 13% of the way through the season and Chris Duhon has clearly been the more valuable player than Kirk Hinrich. No, I don’t get it either. Everyone likes to write Duhon off as a fluke – like after his 2-for-21 back-to-back a few weeks ago – but then he bounces back with a three game stretch like his recent one, where he averaged 16.7/4.7/7.0 with 3.3 3s and 1.3 steals on 58% shooting. Those are serious, serious numbers. So we have to look at the facts – Duhon is averaging 35.6 mpg. That’s tops on the team. He has played at least 34 minutes in all but two games, and has seen at least 38 minutes in six of those. So he seems to be safe in Scott Skiles’ “system.” He’s attempted at least 3 3s in every game he’s played and is averaging nearly 1.8 per game on the season. Combine that with his 6.3 assists and 1.2 steals and 89% free throw shooting and I think it might be time to give the Blue Devil his due. He isn’t the flashiest player and he will be prone to cold streaks, but it’s quite likely that he will be a solid asset as a #3 PG/utility option for the entire season.

It’s still just a matter of time before Hinrich overtakes him as the most valuable member of the Bulls backcourt. His 0.6 spg is what’s really holding his value down, but you have to think it’s just a fluke and that as long as sees his minutes (up to 38 per game over the last four) they will come. He’s attempting two fewer 3s per game this year, which is a bit worrisome, but he’s making a higher percentage and he’ll start gunning more soon. Perhaps I’m being optimistic because Hinirch is one of my players, but he’s still looked at as the leader of this team and his numbers will soon look might similar to the ones he put up last year. Those who were hoping for a sharp improvement from last year might be a little disappointed.

Dallas
I’ve already talked about Jameer Nelson, so now another one of my favorites – Devin Harris. He’s averaging 10.1/2.1/2.8 with 1.1 steals on 49% shooting in just under 22 mpg. Those are mighty impressive numbers. With Josh Howard out for at least a few games, Harris could be in for more action. He saw 31 minutes the other night when Howard played 38 himself. I’d love to see Avery Johnson start Marquis Daniels at SF and go with Harris and Jason Terry in the backcourt, but that’s not going to happen. Keith Van Horn will likely get the nod, but Harris could still see 30+ mpg off the bench. All the normal bench player caveats apply, and Harris doesn’t have quite as much of that u-word thing as Nelson because he doesn’t shoot 3s, but if you are in a super deep league and need a warm body, Harris could very well be your man. His explosiveness is undeniable and he attacks the rim with a vengeance, averaging nearly 4 FTA per game in his 22 minutes. For comparison’s sake, that ties him with Mike Bibby and Shawn Marion. This is a great trait to have. To get to the line, you have to have the ball. Having the ball leads to stats. That’s why we like PG in the first place. Keep Harris on your radar. Trust me.

Los Angeles Lakers
Smush Parker is officially in “driving owners crazy” mode right now. He’s alternating average, excellent and crappy games with regularity, which is not what you want from any player. He’s still getting enough steals and 3s to merit keeping him in your lineup, and that’s what you should do. Just keep him in there and leave him alone. Don’t drive yourself crazy trying to decide when he’ll have a good game and when he’ll have a bad one. He’s in the top 30 in value for 3s and is #6 in steals. Until this stops being the case, take advantage of it and deal with the inconsistent numbers elsewhere. Those are the only two categories he’s an asset in – he’s even slightly below average in assists – but considering the fact that you are likely using him as a #3 PG/utility guy, it’s easy to deal with. In the past 15 days (which doesn’t include his three best games of the season) he’s #108 on the player rater. Not very hot at all, obviously, but if you are in a 12 team, 10 starter league, that’s still worthy of a spot. Barely, yes, but worth it. With Kobe Bryant drawing lots of extra coverage and still chucking up shots and an utterly ridiculous rate, Smush will be open to keep firing those 3s. If his name was Damon Jones and he had a bit more of a track record, would you feel more comfortable keeping him in there?

With no real topic grabbing my attention, I thought I’d take an extended look at three players bublitchki mentioned in the post below. Hopefully we can shed some light.

Gerald Wallace — Here’s what I wrote about Wallace before the season started: “‘Failed’ sleeper picks usually make good value picks the following season, and that looks like it might be the case with Wallace.” Wallace finished 87th on the player rater last year despite missing 12 games and seeing only 31 mpg in the contests he did play. What had me most worried about him was his shooting. He came into the season a 45% shooter from the field and a 61% shooter from the line. Not catasrophically bad, but his form leaves a lot to be desired. But his steals and blocks made him a very nice target, not to mention the fact that he is arguably the #2 offensive option on his team. This is always one of the keys to finding guys who can help your team. The closer to the top option a player is for his team, the more you can count on him for consistency. For example, Nick Collison is going through a slump right now, which isn’t too surprising. He’s at best the fourth option on his team, so bad games can be expected. Only Emeka Okafor is clearly ahead of Wallace in the pecking order on the Bobcats. Now, will Wallace keep going at the pace he is? Of course not. He’s shooting 56% right now and there’s just no way that will continue. His 2.7 spg is also quite likely to come down, but you can’t rule out the possibility that he will average around 2 per game. His blocks are for real, and that’s a huge asset from a SG/SF.

The 5 3s that he hit in his last game won’t happen again this year. I feel confident in saying that. He attempted four total in the season’s first five games, so this could be a complete mirage. If he can somehow manage to average 0.7 to 1 3pg, though, that will only help his value more. Don’t count on it, though. His tendency to get banged up is a bit troublesome, but a concussion and an injured wrist aren’t like knee/back/hamstring issues. Wallace signed a three-year extension with the Bobcats in the offseason, so he’s clearly in their plans and a mini-slump (which will happen at some point) shouldn’t affect his playing time too much. Basically, he’s obviously not going to keep playing at this level, but it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see him finish in the top 50 or 60 this year.

Bonzi Wells — It’s hard to explain Bonzi’s newfound rebounding prowess. He’s always been a pretty good rebounder and was a borderling rebounding machine at Ball State, but this is completely unexpected. He’s had four games of at least 11 boards so far this season, whereas he didn’t even have ten games like that in his entire career up to this point. One thing he has going for him is playing for Rick Adelman, who loves to run his starters out there for big minutes, and Bonzi is seeing a career high 35 mpg. Still, he saw close to 32 mpg in two seasons in Portland and averaged only 6.0 and 5.3 boards then, nowhere near the 8.4 he’s averaging now.

Bonzi seems like the kind of guy who’d really turn it up in a contract year, but this is still out of nowhere. The 2.0 spg he’s averaging are also very nice, but he’s not really helping out anywhere else. Both of his percentages are lousy, and the rest of his numbers are quite pedestrian. Still, as long as he’s seeing 35 mpg for the Kings, he should be an obvious fixture in fantasy lineups. It’s hard to see him ever being a difference maker, and you never know when he’ll have one of his famous blackouts, but he’s a very solid player for now.

Marquis Daniels — Daniels was a popular sleeping pick coming into the year, as most folks thought it was just a matter of time before he overtook Doug Christie as the Mavs starting SG. Well, that has indeed come true, but Daniels still isn’t making his owners too happy. In nearly 32 mpg this season Daniels is averaging a very ordinary 10.6/3.4/2.6 with just 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks and 0.2 3s. In his three starts it’s been a little better — 12.0/3.0/4.7 — but not much. So what’s the problem? Well, it’s the pecking order in Dallas, and where Daniels finds himself on it. Everyone knows that Dirk is option #1, and Jason Terry seems to be pretty locked in as #2. Avery Johnson seems to really love Josh Howard, as after a very weak two-game stretch, he’s been back with at least 38 minutes in each of the last three games. Keith Van Horn doesn’t start, but he comes off the bench firing. And Jerry Stackhouse hasn’t played a minute yet this year (and who knows exactly when he’ll be back), but you can be assured that he will be looking out for himself. So that leaves Daniels opportunities limited.

Still, you shouldn’t give up on him. Daniels was 10th in the league in steals per minute last season, and hasn’t come anywhere close to matching that this year. But you have to think he’ll come around there as long as he keeps getting the minutes. He’s shooting a career high from both the field and the line, and is a career 46/76, which is pretty solid. He’s not going to get you many 3s, but that helps keep his FG% up, so it’s not so bad. Lots of people have been hoping for a repeat of his performance at the end of the 03-04 season and into the playoffs. But if you look back at those last 11 games of the 2004 season when Daniels broke out big time, he averaged 42.3 mpg. That’s Allen Iverson minutes, and the Mavs were a different team then. In those 11 games, they averaged 114 points per game. This season the Mavs are averaging 99 points per game. So expectations should be tempered. And it’s pretty important that he establish himself before Jerry Stackhouse gets back. But he should certainly be held onto, and once those steals start coming, you’ll be happy you did.

So the popular pickup in leagues across the country last night was surely Luther Head. I must give credit to the guy in my league who snagged him a few hours before last night’s tip off. Good thinking. Head started, played 43 minutes and poured in 28 points, grabbed 7 boards, hit 5 3s, made 9-of-17 from the field, all 5 free throws, and added 3 assists. Quite a game. Still, color me skeptical that Head will be able to keep this up, or even come close. First off, the Rockets just don’t score enough so that anyone but Yao will have consistent value when Tracy McGrady is out. Yao is clearly the team’s first option, and they slow the game down to a crawl to get him involved. Usually there’s one player that manages to have a fantasy-worthy game in addition to Yao (who it should be noted is shooting 36-for-89 – 40% — with T-Mac out compared to 44-for-76 – 58% with him in there). Maybe it will be David Wesley, maybe Derek Anderson, maybe Head. It’s risky to be counting on any of them. The more intriguing development is that if Head does manage to have a few more games close to this level, Rafer Alston might have a really, really hard time finding those 35 mpg he needs when he comes back. It’s looking worse and worse for Rafer everyday.

Some other recently won starting jobs and thoughts on them…

Jarvis Hayes – It’s well known that we’re Wizards fanatics around here, so it’s quite rare that I’ll miss a minute of any Wizards game. Over the past week this has caused me much frustration. In an effort to shake things up, Eddie Jordan replaced the struggling (putting it quite mildly) Antonio Daniels in the starting lineup with Jarvis Hayes. I’ll say this about Hayes – he is clearly the most improved player on the Wizards this year. He was drafted as a jump shooting specialist, but the thing was, over this first two years he could not shoot. He hit 40% and 39% of his shots in his first two seasons, and also had trouble staying healthy. But something has clicked this year. His jumper has always looked smooth and now it’s actually starting to fall, as Jarvis is connecting on 46% of his shots. His ideal range is out to 20 feet or so, he’s not a great three-point shooter, but he’s taking more than ever this year, and could connect on just over 1 per game if he keeps his starting job. He’s a good rebounder when he wants to, and the Wizards could really use him crashing the boards more, but he’ll never be much of a plus there. And that’s the rub with Jarvis’s fantasy game. He’ll never hit a ton of 3s, get many steals or blocks or score all that much. He got 31 minutes in his first start last night, and if he stays around that number he’ll be a very borderline fantasy play, because he’ll need to shoot a high percentage to have much value. Also, he’s no better than the fourth option on this team. Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler will all get their production. Butler didn’t play as much last night, but it’s hard to see Eddie Jordan leaving him on the bench in favor of Jared Jeffries for too much longer. Hayes is worth a look if you have a roster spot to play with, but it’s hard to see him helping you out too much.

Jim Jackson – It’s hard to imagine anyone picked up JJ after his 0-for-7 stinker last night. Jackson entered the starting lineup with Leandro Barbosa out of action for a couple of weeks, but didn’t take advantage of the opportunity at all. But take a look at the minutes column – in his first game as a starter, JJ saw 35 minutes of action. Only Steve Nash and Shawn Marion, who played 42 minutes each, saw more time on the court. So if Mike D’Antoni was willing to keep JJ out there for 35 when he couldn’t hit a shot to save his life, it will be interesting to see what happens when the shot does start to fall. But that might be wishful thinking. JJ is shooting an almost impossibly bad 27% on the season, which is why he hadn’t seen more than 18 minute since the season opener before last night. Still, he’s a proven vet, and he did connect on 3 or more 3s in 18 games last season. He’s likely completely off most people’s radar right now, but there’s a slight chance he could erupt for a boat load of 3s in the next game or two. He’s worth keeping an eye on at least.

Josh Smith – So he’s making his way back into the starting lineup tonight, mercifully putting Josh Childress on the bench. Young guys coming off a strong second half, never trust ‘em. Wait, so that means Smith too, right? Eh, maybe. Anyway, Smith will move back into the starting lineup, but will that mean a big boost in his value? He played 27 and 28 minutes as a starter in the first two games of the season. Since he moved to the bench his PT has been very inconsistent, but he’s still managed to at least 30 minutes in four of those games. In those four contests that he’s seen at least 30 minutes his numbers are 11.3/5/1.8 with 1.3 steals and – here it is – 3 blocks. OK, the dude has a worse looking jump shot than your sister, as his 34% FG will attest, and every time I see him launch a jumper I cringe. If there is anyone who ¾ of his FGA should be dunks, layups, follows, alley-oops, it’s Smith. The point is, moving into the starting lineup is always a good thing. Even if he doesn’t see much more than the 30 minutes he was often getting off the bench, there is a much better chance he won’t see those killer 15 minute outings. Everything’s obviously up in the air in Atlanta, but Smith still has the potential to slot as the team’s #3 option on offense, behind Joe Johnson and Al Harrington. Smith’s blocks make him and obvious fantasy dream, but he’s a borderline play until he gets his rebounds and FG% back to where they were last year. If he can manage consistent time as a starter, I’d bet on both of those happening. I might still wait a game or two before plugging him back in there, but soon it will be time.

We’ll try to have something up on Friday, but we make no promises. Happy Thanksgiving.

Now that Thanksgiving is almost upon us, I thought it might be a good idea to look back at the first month of the NBA season and give thanks to those folks who have been helpful to fantasy owners. Not just the studs, but also perhaps some role players and maybe even some guys who don’t even get on the court. So without further ado, let’s give our thanks …

… to Tim Duncan, for hitting his free throws. Listen, we don’t expect to see Timmy stay at his current levels, but nonetheless you’ve got to enjoy it while you can. As we’ve discussed, Duncan has been anything but consistent with his free throws from year to year, so there’s a chance he could set a career-high this year, but even if he doesn’t, this hot start means that at the very least he shouldn’t be the huge liability he has been in the past.

… to Mike Fratello, head coach of the Memphis Grizzlies, for pulling the Grizz out of the fantasy abyss. As DM talked about over the weekend, there are some coaches who are just incredibly frustrating to fantasy owners, who never give enough minutes to good players, or are inconsistent with their lineup from night to night. Nowhere was this more prevalent than in Memphis, where notorious fantasy killer Hubie Brown was loathe to give even 35 minutes to his clearly-best player, Pau Gasol. Not anymore. Now, Gasol is living up to his potential, as are other Grizzlies (most notably Eddie Jones).

… to Baron Davis, for two reasons. One, for actually staying healthy for almost a whole month. Sure he missed a game early in the year, but he’s come back (not something he usually does), which is cause for celebration right there. Two, for being not quite as good as when he was in New Orleans. The scoring and threes are down, and his FG% is absolutely horrendous. What this means for fantasy owners is next year, when you’re sitting at the end of the second round of your draft, or even the beginning of the third, and Davis is sitting there staring you in the face, you can safely pass him over.

… to Raja Bell, James Jones, Kurt Thomas, and all the other non-Matrix and non-Steve Nash Phoenix Suns, for actually hitting all those open jumpers that Nash sets up for them. When the Suns traded away Quentin Richardson, I wasn’t the least bit worried about Nash’s value. Losing Joe Johnson, not a huge deal. But losing Amare Stoudamire? Different story. I don’t have numbers on the percentage of Nash’s assists that went to Stoudamire, but I’d bet it was a whole lot. Fortunately, all of the other guys on the Suns are picking up the slack, at least from the perspective of allowing Nash to maintain his numbers.

… to Isiah Thomas, for not being afraid to admit a mistake – or at least for allowing Larry Brown to show him what a mistake he made with Jerome James. What looked like a fantasy disaster heading into the season, with James, Eddy Curry, and Channing Frye all jockeying for position, has actually worked out quite nicely – and unexpectedly – with Frye perhaps having the most value of all three. Most GM’s would have trouble allowing their coach to essentially bench a major FA acquisition before the preseason, but that’s exactly what seems to have happened. James has been even less than a non-factor in New York, and in fantasy leagues.

Thanks!

New format this week. Hopefully it will be more helpful.

Five Situations to Pay Attention To
Charlotte
A few things to keep in mind here. First off is that Brevin Knight is Bernie Bickerstaff’s choice at starting point guard. Knight tends to get banged up and he did miss a game last week against Indiana. In that game, Raymond Felton started, put up 18/5/10 with 5 steals and 3 3s and the Bobcats beat the Pacers by 32. But the next game, Knight was right back in the starting lineup, getting his 33 minutes. Knight is a calming force on the team, always looking to get other players involved ahead of himself. It’s what a young team needs and Bickerstaff knows that. The Bobcats aren’t trying to win it all this year and will take Felton along slowly. But Felton’s game against Indiana illustrates the entire point of this recurring column. When a point guard – basically any point guard – is guaranteed big minutes, you have to do what you can to get him into your lineup. Knight has a tendency to get banged up, and knee tendonitis is something that tends to flare up on occasion. He missed 16 games last year and his rookie season was the only time he’s appeared in at least 70 games. Granted, he was on and off of rosters a lot during some of those years, but the point is that he hasn’t proven to be durable over the course of an entire season. In the small sample size afforded so far, Felton has proven to be one of the top pick pockets in the league. Hopefully next time Knight plans on sitting out a game, he’ll give a little notice. When that happens, grab Felton and don’t think twice about plugging him into your lineup.

Houston
The good news is that it simply can’t get any worse for Rafer Alston. After being wholly ineffective over the season’s first eight games, he’s now out with a bruised right leg. But just because it can’t get any worse, it doesn’t mean it’s going to get better any time soon. The Rockets are a complete mess right now, unable to break 80 in their last three games. They are struggling for every point they can get right now. You’d like to think that if Alston could re-enter the lineup with Tracy McGrady out it would be the perfect catalyst to get him going, but it’s not something you can count on at all. I’d still hold on to him if you have at least three bench slots, but the longer he goes without playing well, the smaller the chance he will be an unquestioned 35 mpg player when he comes back. Luther Head got a start tonight and played 33 minutes. They weren’t impressive, but Head isn’t overmatched out there and doesn’t turn the ball over much. He’s not much of an asset – in fantasy or reality. David Wesley and Derek Anderson – neither who likely qualify at point guard – are more interesting, especially with McGrady out. Wesley started the season shooting just 29%, but is 10 of 17 in his last couple of games and has seen 77 minutes. He also has 4 3s, 15 boards, 10 assists and 2 steals in those two contests. Wesley managed marginal value last year as a member of the Rockets, with his main strength being his 1.7 3pg. It was Wesley who technically started at PG, and though he won’t get you typical PG stats, if you are desperate for a temporary fill in for a few games until McGrady gets back – and that could be next game, could be a few weeks – Wesley isn’t a bad option.

Utah
It’s almost certainly too late to pick up Deron Williams in your league – if he was even available to begin with – but those that have him are starting to reap the benefits. Utah has been decimated by injuries early on, but it’s one of the minor ones – Keith McLeod’s back spasms – that is allowing Williams to quickly come into his own. The unpredictably Jerry Sloan actually went with a starting backcourt of Milt Palacio and Andre Owens – an undrafted journeyman and a guy who will lucky to be an undrafted journeyman – while bringing Williams off the bench. After the Jazz put up 62 points in that game – or just a few more than the Mavs put up on the Pistons on Saturday night – Sloan relented and put Williams, his second best offensive player at the moment – in the lineup. In three starts so far Williams has been good for 18/3.7/5.7 with 2 3pg and 1 spg. Sloan probably wanted to bring Williams along slowly, but he has no choice now. Deron has seen 36-39-43 minutes in his three starts and that’s a trend that should continue at least until McLeod comes back. Williams hasn’t shown a real ability to get steals, but has shown impressive range. He racked up 10 assists last night, but it will be hard to replicate that with such a sorry supporting cast. He should be a very solid #2 PG for the next couple weeks, but unless he continues to put up 20 and 10s, there’s always the chance that Sloan will go back to some sort of timeshare in the near future.

Minnesota
Marko Jaric cannot be in any starting lineups right now. He’s still starting, but it’s more token than anything. After seeing at least 33 minutes in each of the season’s first four games, he hasn’t topped 27 since then. Watching the Wolves play, the team looks much more lively when Troy Hudson is out there, and he’s been the better player of the two. It seems unlikely he’ll take Jaric’s starting job, and even if he did it’s easy to see the two of them continuing to see around 25 mpg each. It’s tempting to cut Jaric – and in my case I probably wish I did to pick up Mike Sweetney, who I dumped after the season’s first few games – but hold on to him if you can. If you can grab someone like Sweetney or maybe even David West, you can be forgiven, but Jaric still possesses the skill set that could make him a real fantasy asset if given the time. Besides his injury-marred 2003-2004 season Hudson has stayed very healthy throughout his career, and Jaric is much more injury prone of the two. Still, Jaric received a big contract in the offseason and the Wolves don’t seem likely to give up on their investment too fast.

Miami
This weekend might have marked the official death of Gary Payton, Relevant Fantasy Player. With Jason Williams out, it was the perfect opportunity for The Glove to show he could still play. There is no other true point guard on the roster, the Heat have been using a short rotation, the PT was going to be there. Well, it was there and it would have been tough for Payton to be any less impressive. In Friday’s game he played 42 minutes, shot 3-of-10 and finished with 9 points, 4 boards and 3 assists. No 3s, no steals, no blocks, 8 turnovers. Yikes. Yesterday afternoon he was out there for 30 minutes, shot 2-of-10 and finished with 6 points, 3 boards and 7 assists. He did chip in a steal and didn’t commit any turnovers, but he was also at the helm for a loss against the Raptors. It looks like Payton has descended into Eric Snow territory. If you are desperate for assists, he might help you tread water, but even with a lockdown on minutes, he’s an extremely marginal fantasy play. Jason Williams’s spot in the starting lineup his claim to at least 30 mpg seem to be in little danger.

Comet Gain – Five Players Tearing It Up
Mike James – Maybe folks were a little worried when he followed his 36-point performance with a lackluster 9/2/1 game, but in the three games since then he’s gone for 25/2.7/7.3 with 6 3s, 3 steals and has played at least 41 minutes in each contest. He can run hot and cold, but he’s got the lockdown on major minutes in Toronto.

Luke Ridnour – Everyone was a bit too early in freaking out about both Ridnour and the Sonics. A six-game road trip that early in the season can cause havoc with any team. The team has won 4 of 5, scoring 108.4 ppg in the process. Ridnour still can’t find his shot (33% on the year), but the rest of his numbers are getting there. He’s racked up 13 assists in two of his last three and is averaging a nifty 2 spg on the season. And while his FG% woes hurt, he’s trying to make up for it with 97% free throw shooting on a solid 3.4 attempts per game. That gives him the fifth most value in the league in that category.

Tony Parker – It could be a mirage, but Parker has 11 steals in his past 4 games. He still hasn’t hit a 3 this year, and he’s still shooting just 65% from the line, but if he can keep scoring 20+ per game (quite possible) and keep his shooting percentage above 50% (more possible than you might think), he can maintain his top 50 value since he’s a better bet to play 80 games than anyone else on the Spurs.

Damon Stoudamire – Last night’s performance against Denver was a stinker, but playing in Denver on the second night of a back-to-back is one of the tougher tasks in the NBA. Those two prior games showed that Damon will be a fine #2 PG for fantasy purposes, mainly due to one stat – 3PA. He launched 7 in each of those games, and Damon has never been shy. Bobby Jackson’s presence will keep his minutes down, he’s got an upside of about 33-34 per game, but that will be enough for him to offer plenty of help in 3s, assists and FT%.

Chris Paul – We figured that Paul would be the most reliable rookie but still thought there would be ups and downs. Not so much on the downs so far, though. He just capped an impressive four-game stretch where he averaged 20/5.8/8.3 with just 2 3s, but 9 steals. He’s shooting a very impressive 46% and 88%, and is logging huge minutes. He’s at #16 on the player rater right now and if you drafted him as a #2 PG, you may well have a #1 on your hands.

The Hold Steady – Five Players Giving You the Status Quo
Baron Davis – So far, so good. Owners would be thrilled if he could play 10 of every 11 games. His scoring is down and his FG% is just brutal, but it should end up around 40% (still brutal, just not quite as much). That FG% will keep him from ever being a consistent first round value, but it’s hard to really complain so far.

Mike Bibby – See, just need to relax early in the season. Sure, the 4.9 apg isn’t too hot, but his career average is just 6.5 and he’ll be near that number soon enough. He’s 23-for-43 in his last three, a tidy 53%, and is averaging 22.3 ppg over that span. Expect the 3s to start coming in bunches.

Sam Cassell – Sam is settling into a groove as the Clippers run away with the Pacific Division. Two of my favorite teams to watch this year have been the Clippers and Grizzlies. Both teams brought in backcourt veterans (Cassell/Cuttino Mobley, Stoudamire/Eddie Jones) to bring some experience and stability to otherwise young teams and the early results couldn’t be much better. Cassell is really looking to get others involved, averaging a very nice 8.0 apg, which is to be expected on a team with lots of guys who don’t really like to pass the ball once they get it (basically the entire rest of the starting lineup). So his scoring might stay closer to 15 ppg, but that FG% will rise and he will be a solid player all year.

T.J. Ford – This year’s version of Brevin Knight? Quite possibly. That’s not meant as an insult – Knight was plenty valuable last year, leading many teams to the top in assists and steals. Ford’s 9.3 apg and 2.0 spg right now almost exactly mirror Knight’s stats last year in those categories, but Ford is getting 13.6 ppg compared to Knight’s 10.1. But Ford just doesn’t hit many 3s and as the season wears on and that FG% stays below 40, it’s going to hurt. Still, considering that you probably drafted him in the last round or two or picked him up as a free agent, you can’t complain.

Steve Nash – It would be nice to finally see a bump in that FG%, but all of those assists and 36 consecutive free throws to start the season keep him as a first round value so far.

The Fall – Five Players on the Way Down
Smush Parker – Is the end nigh for Smush? Perhaps not quite, but any illusions that he’d regularly put up 20 have been dashed by now. He’s still seeing decent PT (although he sat out much of the 4th quarter last night) and has still launched at least 3 3s in every game except one this year. But he’s never been a big assist man, his steals have dropped significantly from the first few games and he can’t really shoot. Sasha Vujacic actually looked decent last night (I know, I can’t believe it either) and might steal just enough time to make Smush an even shakier play.

Delonte West – Right now, West is basically last year’s version of Chris Duhon, with blocks instead of 3s. Make of that what you will.

Jason Kidd – There seems to be something just a bit off with Kidd. He’s got a long enough track record that you shouldn’t worry too much, but the shooting is as bad as ever and the assists are lower than ever. He’ll turn it around, but if you drafted him as a late-first/early-second rounder, you might be disappointed this season.

Jamaal Tinsley – Certainly one of the most frustrating players in the league. A six-minute tease of a game. Then a DNP. Then a decent enough 8/3/7 with 2 3s in 19 minutes performance. Then a great 12/5/11 with 3 steals that got him back into lineups. Followed by a 4/4/8. At least he got 3 steals, but 2-of-10 hurts. This is how it is. Always up and down.

Tyronn Lue – Not that you ever should have been using him in the first place, but if he’s not starting, he’s got absolutely no business being anywhere near a roster.

Minutes and the predictability of minutes are two of the most important factors to fantasy success. The most reliable players are out there on the court for big minutes day in and day out, no questions asked.

The Even Distributors
These are usually the most frustrating coaches to deal with. Everybody gets minutes, often with little regard as to the actual effectiveness of players. The most obvious example of this was the dreaded Hubie Brown era in Memphis, when it seemed like each player was playing between 18 and 32 minutes, even when the best players clearly deserved more time. Scott Skiles, who was talked about at length on Thursday, is the current worst offender in this category. The current leader in minutes for the Bulls is Chris Duhon with 34 mpg. Of players who have played at least four games, there are nine other players seeing at least double-digit minutes. There are seven guys averaging between 23.5 and 34. This makes it hard to rely on many of these players on a consistent basis. It was very interesting to see Mike Sweetney go into the starting lineup and see 42 minutes on Friday night, while guys like Othella Harrington, Eric Piatkowski and Jannero Pargo all saw seven minutes or less. After the Bulls miserable start last year Skiles found something that worked and stuck with it, but if it’s not working, he may have to adapt. Still, there’s always reason to be suspicious until he proves otherwise.

Charlotte’s Bernie Bickerstaff is another coach who likes to get everyone involved. At least 10 players have seen 10 or more minutes in 10 of the Bobcats’ 11 games. Emeka Okafor leads the team in minutes with just 33.9 per game, which is down from last year’s 35.6, which helps explain why Okafor hasn’t taken a step forward this year, and so far has regressed slightly. This means that while it can be tempting to pick up hot hands such as Kareem Rush or Sean May, chances are that they will sooner rather than later fall back into playing not quite enough to be a solid option. Last night’s game is a perfect example of what often happens in Charlotte. Ten players saw at least 15 minutes, topping out with Kareem Rush’s 32. The Bobcats aren’t the most talented team by any stretch of the imagination, and keeping fresh bodies on the court and playing at a high intensity level is how they stay competitive. This makes Okafor – and Gerald Wallace when healthy – the only consistent options on the team.

The Schizos
Just as frustrating as the Even Distributors are The Schizos, who can’t be trusted at all from night to night. Utah’s Jerry Sloan and Toronto’s Sam Mitchell are the biggest culprits here. Sloan is also a member of the Even Distributors, but is even more unpredictable. Mehmet Okur began the season averaging 23.5/10.2/1.5 on on 53% shooting. And the next game he saw 15 minutes. The following three games he went 22.7/11.7/1.3 on 54% shooting. And the next game he saw 22 minutes. And it’s not like this is a star-studded team, especially with Andrei Kirilenko and Carlos Boozer out. Okur is clearly the team’s best player, but Sloan had no problem yanking him out. Devin Brown will be a DNP one night followed by getting 23 minutes the next. Kris Humphries will see two minutes followed by a game where he gets 26. Injuries seem to be forcing Sloan’s hand lately, which is good news for fantasy owners. With Kirlenko, Boozer, Keith McLeod and occasionally Matt Harpring out, Sloan’s options are limited, which should mean that his top players like Okur and now Deron Williams will be out there a lot. But know that there’s always a chance you could look at a Jazz box score and see some bizarre things.

Sam Mitchell yanks around his players as well. Jalen Rose is his favorite target. On any given night he could play 40 minutes or he could get on Mitchell’s bad side and be held in the 20s. On Nov. 16 against Philly he got in early foul trouble and Mitchell never gave him a chance to get involved in the game and he played just seven minutes and went scoreless in a 121-115 loss. Rose owners couldn’t be too happy with that. Jose Calderon went 16-32-43-17 in the season’s first three games. He’s gone 31-25-7 in the last three. Granted, with Mike James playing so well it’s been hard for Calderon to be out there, but it’s not out of the question that the roles could be reversed down the road. Mitchell also played Matt Bonner 15 minutes or less in six of the season’s first seven games, then when he decided to mercifully end the Loren Woods/Rafael Araujo experiment, it was Bonner – not tearing-it-up-rookie Charlie Villanueva that got placed in the starting lineup. Morris Peterson saw just 20 minutes on Nov. 11 – his lowest total of the year, and he turned in a 0/1/1/ performance that night – so of course Mitchell decided to put him in the starting lineup the next game.

Larry Brown is another obvious schizo this year, with Jamal Crawford being his favorite person to toy with. Here is Crawford’s minutes log this season: 37-24-17-35-39-23-35-28-44. Huh? Granted that with teams struggling early on coaches can be expected to do some shuffling with their rotations. But it’s clear that Brown isn’t really enamored with any players on his roster, and could very well continue to hand out PT at his whim. It’s no secret that there aren’t many reliable Knicks right now, but those who are expecting Channing Frye to keep up what he’s been doing might want to hold their expectations in check. He’s been playing great the past few games and has earned his time and could see even more if Eddy Curry is out. But LB still loves his vets and a lackluster game or two by Frye and he could find himself behind the likes of Malik Rose, Antonio Davis and Mo Taylor again.

The Fantasy Player’s Best Friend
It’s not all bad news with coaches. There are some that you can count on to give your players the minutes you want. Sacramento’s Rick Adelman has long had a reliance on his starters, which combined with the team’s high scoring ways meant fantasy gold. Some people thought things might be a bit different this year, as the team has a bit more depth, but each starter is averaging at least 32 mpg, with all except Bonzi Wells getting at least 34 mpg. Even with guys like Mike Bibby and Brad Miller off to slow starts, they still make attractive targets because there is no question they’ll get their minutes and eventually start producing.

Mo Cheeks is another coach making fantasy owners very happy. Just look at last night’s game. Four starters – Allen Iverson, Andre Igoudala, Chris Webber and Kyle Korver – all saw at least 40 minutes. For those that are staying patient with Korver, continue to do so. As poorly as he’s played, he’s still seen at least 40 minutes in four of the last seven games. Andre Igoudala has been incredibly solid and is a top 40 player so far, but his stat lines still might disappoint some owners who were expecting a more traditional breakout. If you can get him from someone who doesn’t realize that he’s a top four round pick, you probably only have a few more games to be able to do that. Cheeks’ style is something to keep in mind in case an injury occurs. If Iverson were to miss a game, there’s a good chance that John Salmons – who is already averaging nearly 25 mpg – could see upwards of 40 himself. If Chris Webber were to go down, it wouldn’t be surprising to see both Stephen Hunter and Samuel Dalembert – if he ever comes back – to log heavy court time.

So what does it all mean? It’s just another small piece of information to keep in mind. If you have a player on one of the teams with an unpredictable coach who happens to be playing quite well, that guy may not be the worst trade candidate, while guys on teams where the starters are always out there are good targets. Stability is key. For the most part, players’ performances are pretty predictable. It’s just some of those coaches you have to worry about.

Now that we’re about 10% of the way though the season, it might be time to take a step back and reassess some of the guys who are simply taking up space on your roster. Who’s going to turn it around? Who’s just going to continue to do next to nothing? The higher the draft pick, the tougher it is to swallow your pride and drop them, but here are some guys we’re going to be watching this weekend as they could end up on the waiver wire by Monday:

Kyle Korver, SF, Phi (Fri @ Mia, Sat vs. Cle)
Korver was drafted on average in the 6th round this year, surrounded by the likes of Carmelo Anthony, Antawn Jamison, and Zachary Randolph. Those were some lofty expectations, and he has come nowhere close to living up to them. He’s certainly playing better now than the first week of the season, but he’s a guy who needs to score 15 ppg with 3 3pg in order to have fantasy value. The lack of steals are also a concern.

Josh Smith, G/F, Atl (Fri @ NOK)
Many fantasy owners had really high hopes for Josh Smith, and those hopes are quickly running smack in to reality. Part of this was predictable – after all, with Josh Childress, Al Harrington, and Marvin Williams all playing the same position(s) as Smith, where were the extra minutes going to come from? The other part is more of a concern – Smith just hasn’t improved at all. With essentially the same minutes as last year, he’s shooting worse, rebounding less, passing less, and turning the ball over more. Sure, his blocks are incredible, but if Adonal Foyle qualified at shooting guard, would you play him there?

Erick Dampier, C, Dal (Sat vs. Det)
Let’s sum up Erick Dampier’s last two games: 30 minutes. 10 fouls. 10 turnovers. 8 rebounds. Zero points. Zero blocks. Zero steals. Zero fantasy value. When you are losing time to Dasagana Diop, you know things are bad. Not only could he end up on the waiver wire this weekend, but he could stay there all year.

Raja Bell, SG, Pho (Fri vs. Utah, Sat. @ SA)
Bell was quite the hot prospect this summer, getting a ton of talk for a guy who had never scored more than 12 ppg in his career. Looks like the talk may have been just that. Bell’s stats this year in Phoenix are strikingly similar to last year in Utah. He’s shooting a little more from long range, but he was a marginal fantasy player last year, and he might just be a marginal fantasy player this year as well.

Game of the Week(end)
Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Lakers, (Sun, 9:30 EST)
With all the talk about the Bulls (and in particular, Mike Sweetney) yesterday, here’s a good chance to watch a full game and see what Skiles has in store for the guy. But here at FBB, we’re going to watching Chris Mihm just as closely. He’s had a nice little three-game run, and as Smush Parker comes back to Earth, an Kwame Brown continues to be himself, Mihm could emerge as the number three option in LA.

With a loss last night the Bulls dropped to 3-4, which isn’t terrible but is good enough for last place in the strong Central. But even before the loss last night coach Scott Skiles was talking about shaking up his starting lineup, and he just might follow through with it now. So with the shakeup and the new starting jobs won, there should be some new players with fantasy relevance, right? Not necessarily.

It’s always best for a player’s value if he has a starting job, but you still have to get the minutes. Skiles has shown absolutely no reluctance to start a player and still hold his minutes down. So let’s look at da Bulls. I’ve seen at least a bit of almost all of their games, but perhaps someone in the Windy City … GMTR, looking in your direction … would like to offer some more insight.

The Sure Thing
There’s only one and it’s Kirk Hinrich. Hinrich’s numbers aren’t quite where they should be, but they are close enough to the norm that there’s no reason to expect anything too far off from last year’s. His steals and rebounds are down, his percentages are up, those should all even out. He’s actually averaging less than 33 mpg, but that’s because of three low-minute games, only one of which was due to Skiles. (A sprained ankle and foul trouble – which is a definite problem for Hinrich – caused the other two.) Hinrich is the constant for the Bulls, but Skiles will still bench him for the entire end of a rout, as he did on Monday, for example. Still, his game-to-game performance is consistent enough to leave him in all lineups, no questions asked.

Coming On Strong
Andres Nocioni has started every game so far, but has only come to life in the last three. After seeing less than 25 minutes in each of the first four games, Nocioni has gone 27-31-45 in the last three, and he’s put up a 16.7/5.7/1.3 line. He’s also chipped in five 3s, three blocks and a steal. Nocioni is one of those hustle guys that a coach – especially a guy like Skiles – can get enamored with, and when things are going well it looks like he’s a part of everything. It should be noted that his two best games have come in Bulls losses, but Nocioni should have a lock on his starting job. He seems like he’d make a decent short-term pickup right now, but don’t get too excited. Nocioni played 45 minutes last night and Scott Skiles just doesn’t let that happen too much.

There was probably a run on Mike Sweetney after his 26 and 14 performance last night. Sweetney replacing Darius Songaila would be the most obvious lineup switch, as you could make the argument that Sweetney is one of the Bulls two or three best players. He can be a real fantasy force if given the opportunity, as he is one of the best rebounders in the league on a per minute basis. The knock on him as been his lack of steals and blocks, and while it’s true that he doesn’t offer much there, he’s a career 53% shooter and gets to the foul line a lot and makes a good number. But I’ll believe Skiles gives him that chance when I see it. The problem is that he has to deal with both Songaila and Othella Harrington. Scott Skiles loves to play his whole roster and will routinely give 10 or 11 players at least 10 minutes per game. This makes it tough for anyone to have value, because there’s a huge difference between 29 minutes and 35 minutes. With a few more games like last night Sweetney could force Skiles’ hand, though. I spent my last round pick on Sweetney because I liked his upside and thought it would only be a matter of time before he grabbed a starting job. If you have a roster spot to play with, Sweetney is a nice option. He’s got more upside than Nick Collison, for example, but because Collison is starting, he’s a better short-term option than Sweetney.

Luol Deng is still just 20 years old, so he’s a player that you can expect considerable improvement from. He seems unlikely to crack the starting lineup right now with Nocioni playing so well, but you can’t rule it out at some point in the season. But until Deng shows that he’s capable of a special skill relevant to fantasy players, he won’t be of much value. Sweetney can dominate in boards and FG%; Deng dominates nowhere. He has just three steals, three blocks and two 3s on the season. Deng has shown good scoring ability, but you have to score a whole lot of points to be valuable without other contributions, especially when it’ll be a miracle if you shoot even 44%.

Ben Gordon is the perfect example of a guy who Scott Skiles is keeping down. His minutes this season are up to 29.3 from 24.4 but it’s more of a tease than anything. If he could get to that 33-35 mark, Gordon would be a no-brainer starter. But with fluctuating minutes coming off the bench, it’s a day-to-day guessing game. He went 23/6/4 with three 3s on Nov. 5, but followed that with 13/1/1 on 5-of-17 shooting. He scored 17 with two 3s on 7-of-10 shooting on Nov. 12 and followed that with 6 points on 2-of-12 shooting. This is a perfect example of why bench players are so risky. There’s very little margin for error. The fewer minutes, the fewer chances to rack up stats in all of the categories, so if you don’t come through in your strength, it kills you.

Fading Fast
I thought Tyson Chandler would be a better player to own than Marcus Camby this year. Oops. Camby could still go down, but Chandler may as well be down for how well he’s played so far. The Bulls don’t have any other real options in the middle, so you’d expect Chandler’s starting job to be safe, but Chandler excelled coming off the bench last year and Skiles may think he’s more comfortable there. Othella Harrington is one of those “reliable vets” and I wouldn’t put it against Skiles to start him at center if the matchup presents itself. Chandler has just four blocks on the season, and those were all in the first two games, meaning he’s gone five straight without one. Owners weren’t expecting many points, but were counting on at least 10 boards and 2 blocks per game. Frustrated Chandler owners might be willing to cut bait after he received just 39 minutes total in the last two games. If you can pick him up on the cheap, go for it. The Bulls have been disappointed in their defensive performance, and even though Chandler has been a part of that, he’s still the key to their success there. He’s also the only player that can man the middle and Skiles seems to have little choice but to play him. Perhaps he’s gotten a little content after signing his offseason contract extension, but seven games is still just seven games.

Nobody in their right minds thought Chris Duhon would keep up his pace from the season’s first two games. Since then he’s averaged 6.3/1.8/4 with 0.5 steals and .8 3s. And it’s not like he’s been hurting for playing time, either. Skiles loves the guy, but if he keeps shooting 33%, he’s not going to have much choice but to keep him on the bench more. The chance to sell high on Duhon is passed and it’s unlikely anyone would have taken the bait then anyway. Except for the deepest of leagues, he just doesn’t merit a roster spot.

In the season opener Darius Songaila hit a big three-pointer to force overtime and finished with a respectable 11/5/5, two steals, one 3 performance. He’s barely matched those totals since then. He’s seen just 11 minutes in each of the past three games, and he was never a fantasy factor, but now he’s a complete afterthought. But as previously stated, those 11 minutes could be put to better use elsewhere. Why oh why can’t you just sit him on the bench all game, Skiles? Are you going to miss the 2/4/3 on 1-of-6 shooting that Songaila has totaled in 33 minutes over the last three games?

Bottom Line
So what have we learned? Well, be skeptical is all I’m saying. Guys like Sweetney and Gordon are very tempting, but can be the ultimate frustration. If there’s one thing to drives you crazy, it’s seeing a guy having a great game on your bench, plugging him into the lineup and then seeing him put up a clunker. And the way Skiles runs his rotation in Chicago, there’s always a decent chance of that happening. Guys like Songaila, Harrington, Eric Piatkowski and Jannero Pargo seem to exist only to frustrate fantasy owners. Coaches patterns can’t be ignored, and I’ll actually have a column up over the weekend talking about some of the most frustrating ones, and how to deal with them.