In yesterday’s column, in which I ranked the top 20 fantasy players right now, I was able to hold off on the number one fantasy player thus far until 15, at which point I took a deep breath, winced a bit, and typed the name “Marcus Camby” into the column.

It’s not like I was actually drafting him, or trading for him, or that I really had put any stock into the guy whatsoever, but still, it was a tough decision to make. You can’t ignore the stats, but you also can’t ignore these numbers: 63, 63, 46, 59, 63, 29, 29. Those are Camby’s games played in the first 7 years of his career, and they were enough to label him fantasy death.

But then in ’03-04, a breakthrough – Camby stayed upright for a career-high 72 games, and then last year put up a respectable 66. His combined 138 games the last 2 years are better than Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Andrei Kirilenko, and Allen Iverson - and all of those guys are perennial first or early second round picks.

So how long must Camby play a bunch of games before fantasy players give him some respect? Well, he’s certainly put a wrench in our wait-another-year-or-two-and-then-give-in strategy, as he’s erupted for 16 and 14 with 3.7 blocks, 1.4 steals, and 56% shooting. All of a sudden, the critical time for Camby is right now. Buy or sell? Let’s examine:

First things first: there is no way Camby will continue to put up these massive numbers. Eventually he’ll slip down to something like 14/11 with 2.8-3 blocks and shooting just under 50%. Still, those are fantasy stud numbers, especially from a center. And a player like that is worth way more than the 40th pick where Camby was drafted on average. Now, granted, I don’t think his value is really in the mid-teens. But to say that he’s an early-20’s type player isn’t much of a stretch. With Nene out for the year, and K-Mart hurting, he’ll continue to play a major role for the Nuggets over the rest of the season – as long as he stays healthy.

That’s where the guessing game comes in. How many games can he really be expected to play this year? Well as DM said yesterday, I’m not a doctor - and I don’t even play one on the Internet. But there are examples of oft-injured guys who recover to be reliable. Zydraunas Ilgauskas may be the best example, as he played just 29 games over two years early in his career, then rebounded with 66 games in ’01-’02, and has missed no more than 3 games in any of the last three years. So it’s not unprecedented for an oft-injured guy to come through with a reliable couple of years.

I’m not going to venture a guess on how many games Camby will play, but I will say this. Fantasy sports are all about gambling. At the end of the year, the winner of your fantasy league at some point made a decision to take a chance and that chance came through. Marcus Camby, right now, is one of those chances. If your team is struggling right now, and you need to take a chance if you want any hope of making it to the top of the standings, going after Camby is a decent idea. Even if your team is doing well, getting Camby at a discount could end up winning your league.

What’s fair value? Well, DM and I agree that Camby right now is a top-30 value, taking the injury risk into account. The more games he plays, though, the higher that value gets, so the time to strike is now. So if you’ve got Camby, and don’t want the risk anymore, only deal him if you can get a top-30 guy for him. If you want to try and add Camby to your team, and you can do it for less that that, than by all means pull the trigger.

It’s pretty rare that a guy can have such a critical year for his fantasy value at age 31, but that’s the situation Camby is in. If you want to ride the wave, you’d better get on quick – but we won’t blame you for staying on the sideline.

Every couple of weeks here at FBB, we update our rankings of the elitest of the elite. Basically, we’re treating this like a new mock draft. If your draft was held today, how would it look? This is our best guess.

1. Kevin Garnett, SF, Min
Sure the free throws are a concern, but there is a reason this guy went #1 in many drafts – consistency. He’ll come around.

2. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, Dal
You can yell all you want, but right now I’d take Dirk over LeBron. A plus in every single category except assists.

3. LeBron James, SF, Cle
Boards, blocks and steals are all half of what they were last year. Junior slump? He’ll break out of it, but still.

4. Shawn Marion, F, Pho
No Amare means the Matrix is an inside presence on offense – that means more boards, but less (as in ZERO) three pointers made so far this year.

5. Tim Duncan, F/C, SA
That 85% from the stripe will come down, but if it stays over 75%, he returns to elite status.

6. Tracy McGrady, G/F, Hou
If there are two things that don’t go away, it’s knee problems and back problems. T-Mac has both. You’ve gotta worry about that.

7. Kobe Bryant, SG, LAL
He’s scoring 2 more ppg this year, but it’s taking him 6 more shots because of the lack of threes and the fact that he’s not getting to the line as much as in the past. Steals and assists are also down, but those should come.

8. Dwyane Wade, G, Mia
With Shaq out, he’s been carrying the load. His stats remind me of Lebron last year, minus the threes.

9. Gilbert Arenas, PG, Was
FBB’s hometown hero is making us proud. He won’t shoot anywhere near 50% this year, but if he can stay over 43%, he’s a top-ten pick next year.

10. Allen Iverson, G, Phi
Last year was no fluke. AI as a PG is the real deal.

11. Paul Pierce, G/F, Bos
Off to a hot start – his 8 boards, 26.3 points, and 48% from the field all would be career highs. All will come down eventually, but not by much.

12. Steve Nash, PG, Pho
Has yet to miss from the stripe. Still, how long can he keep this up, with no Amare?

13. Elton Brand, PF, LAC
61% from the field? That will have to come down eventually, but the uptick in blocks is encouraging.

14. Jason Kidd, PG, NJN
If you can overlook the lack of points and FG%, he’s a top fantasy PG.

15. Marcus Camby, C, Den
Ok, we can’t let him slide any further. This guys deserves his own column – maybe we’ll get to him this week.

16. Ray Allen, SG, Sea
The steals are a nice surprise, and the rest is classic RayRay.

17. Peja Stojakovic, SF, Sac
He’s baaaaaack. The Kings may be struggling, but it’s not Peja’s fault – his 3.3 threes and 97% from the stripe are flat out awesome.

18. Vince Carter, G/F, NJN
If you thought he’d maintain that 27 ppg from last year, you were crazy, but he’s turning in a very nice year so far.

19. Andrei Kirilenko, F, Utah
A total lack of shooting (from the field, the stripe, and the arc) combined with an ankle injury means AK-47 is our biggest slipper so far.

20. Richard Jefferson, F, NJN
There’s a lot to like about Jefferson right now, but our favorite numbers are the 9 boards and 4.6 assists. A higher-scoring Lamar Odom, sorta.

Just missing the cut:
Yao Ming, Chauncey Billups, Eddie Jones, Lamar Odom, Antawn Jamison, Michael Redd.

It’s PG time. There are lots of players coming off the bench putting up good numbers. How should you feel about them? Read on…

There’s really nothing to say about Allen Iverson. Dude’s a monster, he’s averaging 44 mpg, stats all over the place … So, is that Delonte West bandwagon empty yet? His two point performance last night might have chased away the last few. Take away that monster first (overtime) game and he’s averaging 7.4/4.4/3.4 with 0.4 3s, 1.4 steals and 1 block on 38% shooting. That’s not going to help too many teams. He’s still worth having on your bench. Dan Dickau is not … Jason Kidd has 9 or more assists in just two games this season, leaving him with just a 6.6 average. He’s still hovering right around 2 3pg and spg, so owners aren’t complaining too much. Expect those assists to go up, but to stay around 8 per game. Jeff McInnis isn’t relevant fantasy-wise, but he’s starting to play some decent minutes for the Nets. Watch to make sure he doesn’t take too many away from Kidd … Why is Stephon Marbury shooting 54% from the free throw line? He’s killing his owners, especially since he’s taking nearly 8 per game. Very bizarre from a career 79% shooter. His owners can’t be too happy with those 5.2 assists, either. Despite all of the Knicks troubles he’s still seeing 40 mpg and there’s still not too much reason to think he won’t start playing to his normal abilities … Lots of eyes on the PG situation in Toronto. Mike James had the huge game he needed and showed why he has more fantasy upside than Jose Calderon. James hit six 3s yesterday while Calderon has attempted just 10 all year. Calderon has proven to be an assist machine (fourth in the league for players who have actually played much), and he’s still worth having on your bench. But until his playing time is more consistent – it’s been 43-17-26-32 – it’s a guessing game about when to plug him into the lineup. Who knows what’s going on in Sam Mitchell’s mind, so keep paying close attention.

Where are all of these assists coming from for Chauncey Billups? He’s never averaged even 6 per game and he’s as 9.3 right now. And it’s not like it’s at the expense of his scoring, either. He’s simply as solid as they come, and while he won’t average 9 apg, Detroit’s new offensive scheme should allow him to continue putting up great numbers … One of the reasons I was down on T.J. Ford coming into the year was that I thought Mo Williams was just as good. Well, at least I was half right. Williams has been a machine off the bench for the Bucks, but that 75% from 3-point land is just far too good to last. It’s hard for me to really endorse players who don’t start because they have such little margin for error in each game. There’s nothing wrong with riding the hot hand, but you have to wonder how much longer he can keep it up when he’s getting just 25 mpg. Ford to rack up the assists and steals as well. He needs to keep doing that because as the season wears on that 37% shooting will start to seriously take its toll. Still not the worse sell high candidate, but don’t give him away by any means … With the Cavs winning four in a row, don’t expect any lineup changes coming soon. That means Eric Snow will stay in the starting lineup and Damon Jones will come off the bench where he just can’t help teams all that much. He hits his 2 3pg, but that’s it. Bench him, release him if you really need to … Jamaal Tinsley owners, you knew this was coming. The worst was that six-minute tease of an outing over the weekend. He has a tendency to do that, and that’s even more frustrating than missing games. The Pacers predictably – and disappointingly – went with Anthony Johnson in place of Sarunas Jasikevicius in Tinsley’s absence. Johnson put up a very Eric Snow-like 0/0/3 in 34 minutes on Saturday. He actually had some value last year, but don’t expect the same again. If you were holding on to Sarunas for when Tinsley went down, you can probably let him go … Chris Duhon seems to remember that he’s Chris Duhon – 8/2/4 in his past two games is much more like it. He still hasn’t played less than 34 minutes in every game he’s played, so he’s worth keeping around on your bench. Kirk Hinrich is starting to assert himself as the PG more, getting 8.3 apg in his last three. That’s nice to see, but his 48% shooting is an illusion.

After being there in person to witness Gilbert Arenas put up 75 points on just 36 attempts this weekend, I’m ready to name my first born after him. I’m telling you, it’s my brand new throwback jersey that helped him do it. He needs to start being mentioned in the same conversation as … well, at least Tracy McGrady. What’s McGrady ever done? Gilbert will be a first-round pick for many, many years to come. Neither Antonio Daniels nor Chucky Atkins look too comfortable in the Wizards offense yet. No reason to have them around … Jason Williams has never been the most consistent game-to-game performer and that seems to be holding true in Miami. His 4.4 apg isn’t pretty, but the rest of the numbers are where you’d expect them to be. Business as usual. Gary Payton is seeing decent time off the bench but he’s just a name you recognize. If Keith McLeod was putting up the same numbers, you’d pay it no mind … Steve Francis is Steve Francis. A perfect second rounder. I’ll continue my push for more Jameer Nelson PT, although it just doesn’t seem to be happening. It will at some point this season, and be ready to pounce … Brevin Knight hasn’t seen quite as much PT lately, but he’s still racking up the steals (4th in the league). The assists aren’t there quite as much but again, you try getting assists on a team that can’t shoot. I’ve got him riding the pine, but I’m leading the league in assists without him. If you need assists and steals, he’s a fine starter. Raymond Felton will probably want to work on that 27% shooting. Just a suggestion … In four starts Tyronn Lue is averaging 9/1.3/2.8 with .8 3s and .3 steals. Well, it’s a little better than Eric Snow at least.

Tony Parker is a lot of fun to watch. That running floater is among the best shots in the league. Maybe if that was a fantasy category he’d be a stud. Unfortunately 3s and steals are … Jason Terry breakout game alert. He’ll be a top 40 player soon enough. Devin Harris, I’m telling you. In time … It might be best for Damon Stoudamire to sit out a few games and try to get completely healthy and calm himself. I think he’s not a bad buy-low candidate, because I suspect you might be able to get him pretty cheap. Because he shoots so many 3s and is near perfect at the free throw line he should still emerge as a solid #2 PG. Bobby Jackson has been playing extremely well, and if you have daily transactions and read that Damon will miss a game or two, by all means plug B-Jax in there. That’s what it’s all about, after all, getting those couple of games where you can get them. But if he’s not starting, he’s too risky … Chris Paul is currently #28 on the player rater. Not bad at all. Doubtful he’ll be there when the season ends, but he looks like he was worthy of being the first rookie taken in drafts. I’m sure I sound like a broken record, but despite Speedy Claxton’s strong play off the bench, he’s still a risky start. You can only compile so many stats in 26 mpg. He’s a decent plug-in, but he just can’t keep this up … Rafer Alston owners, commence panicking. The Rockets have a tendency to start slow and Alston is adjusting to his new digs. I still think he’ll bounce back, but it’s tough to start him right now. It would be extremely unwise to release him, though. Rookie Luther Head has looked pretty solid, but if it just doesn’t work out with Alston it’s hard to see Van Gundy going with a rookie.

Deron Williams is still outplaying Keith McLeod and he’s still coming off the bench, neither of them have managed 30 minutes in a single game yet. Nobody wins in situations like this. Except the Jazz, who happen to find themselves in first place at this early juncture. So don’t expect any changes … After averaging 37 mpg in the first four games of the season, Marko Jaric has been down to 21 the last two. Not good at all. Troy Hudson has been a spark off the bench, and it might be wise to see Jaric have another strong game before putting him back in the lineup … Here’s a challenge for you – someone think of something interesting to say about Andre Miller and post it in the comments. Have you heard the one about the guy who’s a solid player but gets only 25 mpg and therefore has extremely limited fantasy upside? Earl Boykins is at #120 on the player rater right now and he’s playing as well as he can. He’s just not worthy of a roster spot … So Sebastian Telfair is averaging only 3.4 apg but is shooting 42% from 3-point range? Weird. He’s bench material right now … Luke Ridnour will continue to slowly turn things around. I still expect him to show slight improvements across the board from last year’s numbers, which should make him a serviceable #2 PG. Continue to be patient.

The assists are nice, but 36% shooting from Sam Cassell is not what we are accustomed to. It will certainly rise, have faith. He’ll continue to be extremely valuable as long as he’s healthy … Unlike Cassell’s 36% shooting, Baron Davis’s 36% shooting might not improve all that much. But he’s the same 3s/steals/assists machine he’s always been, but that 66% from the line really hurts, too. He’s like the point guard version of Antoine Walker. If you drafted him, you knew what you were getting into, so you may as well stick by him. Derek Fisher is starting to assert himself, stealing much of Mike Dunleavy’s PT. Man, there sure are a lot of guys playing a productive 25 or so mpg, aren’t there? Fisher probably has more value than the rest because the guy he plays behind is so fragile … I thought Steve Nash’s FG% and assists would drop. At this point, the FG% has but the assists are staying strong. Good for him. He’s a top 10 player right now, and should stay in the top 20 all season. Leandro Barbosa qualifies at PG and is the hot name this week. Unlike all the other guys, he actually seems to be starting. He’s probably gone, as well he should be. Nash will keep him from getting too many assists, but Barbosa can help in 3s, steals and points. He played 39 minutes against Golden State, and he can get consistently get 35 mpg on that team – by no means a sure thing at all – he will put up 5th-6th round numbers … Smush Parker continues to hit 3s and get steals and he’s yet to play fewer than 31 minutes. Keep starting him … Man, the Kings kinda suck, don’t they? Mike Bibby is rounding into form, although he’s yet to score 20 or dish 10 assists. If you can still buy low, you should still do it. He’ll end up with numbers very similar to Chauncey Billups.

Here at FBB HQ, the topic of minutes comes up as much as any other statistic measured in the NBA. And now that the number of games played creeps into the 6 or 7 mark for most teams, this weekend we’re going to start to get a better idea of who’s going to be on the court and for how long. Here are a couple of guys that we’re going to be watching:

Ricky Davis (Fri v. SA, Sun. v. Hou)
Sure the 2 OT games have helped inflate his minutes so far, but don’t think we haven’t noticed Ricky’s robust 44 mpg, a league-high. All that time on the court has led to great fantasy value for Davis, and if he continues to see at least 35 mpg, his stats may return to where they were during his glory days with the Cavaliers.

Marvin Williams (Sat. v. Mem)
Sure the numbers aren’t particularly good, but look at the mpg for rookies this year, and there’s Marvin Williams coming in third with a respectable 28. That’s actually a very encouraging number, considering how unproductive he’s been on the court, but he looks like he’ll eventually be able to do the things that fantasy players love – shoot threes, get steals and make blocks. It’s far too early to rule out an Iguodala-like rookie year for Williams, depending on how the minutes shake out in Atlanta.

Udonis Haslem (Sat v. Cha)
After the hectic offseason in Miami, Haslem was largely an afterthought in many drafts this year. But with Shaq out, Haslem has re-established himself in the Heat lineup, seeing minutes right in line with what he got last year. He had a rough game last night at home against Houston, dealing with foul trouble, but the next week or so will have a huge impact on his fantasy value for the rest of the season as he proves his worth to Stan Van Gundy.

Where are the shake-ups going to come from?

This weekend is going to determine which teams are going to enter panic mode as the slide farther and farther down in the standings – both in fantasy and reality. Both of these can have serious impact on your fantasy teams. Real-life teams that are struggling are going to tinker with their lineups and start giving more minutes to bench players (teams to watch include Toronto and Seattle).

Meanwhile, only about 10 days into the season, some of the teams at the bottom of the standings in your league may start to panic. Now – while they’re still paying attention – is the time to strike with some trade offers to try and improve your team. Even if you can’t pull the strings on a nice trade, be sure to scour the waiver wires extra carefully this weekend as panic mode sets in and some slumping-yet-serviceable players hit the wires.

Game of the Week(end)
New York Knicks at Sacramento Kings (Sun. 9 PM)
Each team plays tonight as well, but both of them absolutely have to come out of the weekend with at least one win. Without it, the Knicks would be 0-6 and Larry Brown might quit on the spot. I kid, of course, but fantasy owners with Knicks on their roster have to be watching this team very closely to see how the PT shakes out. As for the Kings, a winless weekend would put them at 1-6, and the trade rumors will start flying – and that’s always exciting.

After going 7-for-8 last night, Tim Duncan is now shooting a cool 21-for-24 – that’s 87.5%, folks – from the free throw line. It’s still too early to declare an end to his free throw woes, but his owners have to be quite encouraged right now. Combined with his 56% shooting from the field and 3.6 bpg, he’s clearly been the top fantasy player over the season’s first eight days. The FG% and blocks will come down – he will lock into his normal averages of right around 50% and around 2.5 bpg – but his numbers across the board are extremely predictable except for FT% and games played. Duncan has never been a great free throw shooter, but he did manage to shoot 80% in 2001-2002. Of course, that was preceded by a season of 62%, followed by 71% and then 60% and 67%. In fact, over the past seven seasons, Duncan has had at least a 7% fluctuation each season. It’s really one of the more bizarre stats out there. So what does it mean? It means that even though this is a very small sample size, perhaps this will be one of his good seasons. His owners can be cautiously optimistic, but should know that a 3-for-12 may be waiting soon. But if he can keep it around 75%, even if he misses 8-10 games, he should still put up total numbers worthy of a first round pick.

After going 0-for-1 last night, Pau Gasol is now shooting a not at all cool 18-for-32 – that’s 56%, folks – from the line himself. This number has been overshadowed by his otherwise brilliant play, but as a Gasol owner, I am very worried. Might Gasol be the new Duncan? He’s not grabbing nearly as many boards as Timmy, but the 21.8 ppg, 2.4 bpg and 52% from the field are very Duncan-esque. And Gasol finally looks like a dominant force on offense. He has an unstoppable spin move on the baseline and when matched up against slower defenders, he can drive right past them to the hoop for a one-handed jam. Memphis is running its offense through him and everyone banking on a breakout season looks like they banked correctly. But that FT% could be really harmful. Gasol shoots his free throws with just one hand, and it’s quite unnatural. He’s never shot below 71% and was up to 77% last year, so you have to think he’ll turn things around. But if he doesn’t, he’s going to be one of the most frustrating players to own this season, despite his otherwise standout numbers.

Kobe Bryant has attempted three 3-pointers over the season’s first five games. This is downright shocking, and it’s all on Phil Jackson. Kobe became one of the top 3-point gunners last year, averaging six attempts per game and hitting on two. Not the greatest percentage, but fantasy owners weren’t complaining. But we heard a lot this offseason about the Zen Master wanting Kobe to increase his FG% and Kobe actually seems to be listening. Anyone who has seen the Lakers play this season knows that Kobe is playing like a man possessed, and he’s attacking the basket with authority. He attempted two 3s in the opener, one in the next game and hasn’t attempted a single one since then. This isn’t going to last, but there seems to be very little chance of Kobe matching his 2 3pg of last year and at this point it would be surprising if he averaged even 1 3pg. This is concerning because Kobe will not shoot 50% on the season – 47-48% maybe, although I’d still expect it to be around 45-46%. Kobe is also getting just 0.6 spg, and his rebound and assist numbers are down as well. This is all overshadowed by his insane 34.8 ppg, but it’s worth paying attention to. Kobe will average at least 30 ppg this season and will be closer to 35 than a lot of people think, but if he doesn’t get these other numbers up, he might still end up being a slight disappointment.

Samuel Dalembert and Carlos Boozer still haven’t played in a game and don’t appear to be all that close to doing so. This is less about Dalembert and Boozer as it is about injuries in general. Never expect the best estimate. Until you see a player on back on the court, consider him out. Injuries have a tendency to linger. We’ve actually seen some impressive bounce backs this season, with Kirk Hinrich not missing a game after spraining his ankle, Gerald Wallace not missing time after suffering a concussion and Baron Davis missing just one game with hamstring issues. But day-to-day rarely means just that. Have other options ready. And speaking of injuries, they are starting to mount. McGrady and Shaq already went down, while Dirk Nowitzki, Rashard Lewis and Jamaal Tinsley got banged up last night. This is where things start getting interesting, where it pays to have depth. At the same time, teams withoutdepth can take advantage of these situations as well. If you have a very weak end of the bench, then there’s little risk in grabbing guys like Keith Van Horn, Vladimir Radmanovic or Sarunas Jasikevicius just in case any of those above guys are out for a while. On the other hand, teams with very solid benches might be hesitant to jettison a solid player for someone who might just have a single game of relevance.

About a week into the season, it’s time to turn back to some of those questions we had going in to the year, and see if we can start to answer some of them:

Q: How is Joe Johnson going to do in his new digs?
A: Surprisingly similar to how he did in his old digs.

Johnson was one of the biggest names to switch teams in the offseason, and the hype machine was running full tilt by the time fantasy drafts rolled around at the end of October. Some were expecting a new elite fantasy player, racking up the points, assists and threes. Others were expecting an overwhelmed player who’s just not really good enough to excel in the way the Hawks want.

The reality is somewhere in between. Johnson’s value right now is pretty much right where it was last year – a fourth-roundish, reliable, well-rounded game. Sure his assists are up and his boards are down, but that kinda evens itself out. The major concern is his 4.3 turnovers per game, good for third highest in the league. In response, Tyronn Lue has been seeing progressively more mpg, allowing Johnson to play more off the ball. If this strategy sticks, Johnson might be almost exactly the same type of fantasy player that he was in Phoenix.

Q: How awesome is Stromile Swift going to be with a starting gig next to Yao Ming?
A: Surprise!

OK, you listen to me, Juwan Howard. If you want to ruin my hometown Washington Wizards for like 8 years, that’s fine. If you want to hop from team to team, bringing disappointment and unmet expectations with you wherever you go, it’s no sweat off my back. But when you are getting 25 freaking minutes in place of FBB super-favorite Stromile Swift, that’s where I draw the line!

Nobody was more excited than me when Swift escaped the fantasy hell of Memphis for the sunny skies of Houston (well, apparently one person was – the guy who drafted him in the sixth round of my fantasy draft). Swift has been bursting with fantasy potential ever since he was drafted with the 2nd overall pick in the 2000 draft, but for some reason has had serious trouble getting minutes. Now that he’s having the same problem in Houston, where he signed a nice, big contract and was assumed to have a starting gig, you’ve got to wonder if the problem lies with Swift, and not with his coaches. I mean, he’s fought for playing time the last few years with Lorenzen Wright and now Juwan Howard – not exactly top-notch competition. Watch closely to see how this one plays out.

Q: How is the fantasy value going to shake out in the Bucks’ frontcourt?
A: TBD.

After two games, it looked like the answer was obvious. Andrew Bogut came out of the gate strong, showing ability on the offensive boards, blocking shots, and even showing some passing ability. Meanwhile, Jamal Magloire was a complete mess, logging as many turnovers as points (eight).

Two games later, it’s a whole new ballgame. Bogut has all but disappeared, with 7.5 points and 5.5 boards in thirty mpg. Magloire has steadied himself and put up 12.5/8.5 in the last two games. Meanwhile, Joe Smith came back from his injury and came out swinging, logging 12 points and 12 boards in just 20 minutes last night.

In the end, it appears the big loser is going to be Dan Gadzuric, who managed to get the dreaded DNP-CD last night. Bogut, Magloire and Smith should all see somewhere between 28 and 32 mpg, and all should have decent value as a result. But it’s still way up in the air.

Manu Ginobili?
Don’t say we didn’t warn you. All through his playoff run, all through the offseason, we warned you. A super-hot playoff run doesn’t mean that those stats are going to carry over to the following season. But that said, I don’t think anyone expected a statistical drop like this. His shooting is a disaster (under 30%), and other than a few hot streaks he’s really been almost nonexistent in the Spurs offense.

Still, he’s showing signs of improvement. His 13 boards and three steals last night were encouraging, as were his 37 minutes. But the fact is, the Spurs added some serious depth last year, and that’s only a bad thing for Ginobili. Despite the hot playoff run, I don’t think you can expect him to be much better than he was last year, and maybe some of those 3rd-round picks that were spent on him could have been spent better elsewhere.

Larry Hughes?
Last year, Hughes was the 1A to Gilbert Arenas’ 1 in the Washington offense. He was given free reign a lot of the time in the offensive system, chucking 20-footers and driving the lane with regularity. He also had the ball in his hands plenty, leading to a career-high 4.7 assists. Meanwhile, his defensive abilities meant he was put up against the other team’s best perimeter player, so as the on-the-ball defender he managed to come up with a ton of steals. Oh yeah – and on top of all that, it was a contract year.

Now, he’s a clear second-banana to LeBron James. He is much more of a spot-up shooter on the Cavs, as LeBron and Eric Snow/Damon Jones both control the ball more on offense. He won’t approach the 18 shots per game or 4.7 assists of last year, and in fact maybe he shouldn’t have been picked in the 3rd or 4th rounds either.

Jamal Crawford?
One day, twenty years from now, Jamal Crawford and Darko Milicic will sit down and have a nice meal and reminisce about the time the were stuck in Larry Brown’s doghouse. But until then, Crawford is going to have to fight his own battles in New York. His minutes have gone from 37 in the opener to 24 to 17. His points, from 11 to 4 to 2. He’s clearly the odd man out right now in New York, and its tough to get out of that position when Larry Brown is your coach.

Jamal Crawford might be the highest-drafted player to land on the waiver wires this year without being injured. Brown has no patience for players like Crawford – high-turnover, low-FG% types who needs the ball in his hands. It’s much to soon to actually drop him, but there is no reason he should be in the starting lineup for anyone.

Kurt Thomas?
You know, I could have just as easily picked Jim Jackson for this spot, or even Raja Bell or James Jones, but I’ll stick with Thomas as the biggest disappointment so far. Despite Amare Stoudamire being out of the lineup, Thomas is seeing only about 23 mpg, and even worse, he’s only grabbing 4.3 boards.

So what’s the problem? Well, the problem is, the Suns have found that they can go with an incredibly small lineup and still win. But so far they’ve played only Dallas and Sacramento, two teams who love to run just as much as the Suns, and the Lakers and the Jazz, two teams who, really, aren’t very good. Once the Suns are forced to play a big man in the middle, that man will be Thomas, and hopefully his stats will turn around a little in the coming weeks.

Welcome to this season’s first installment of As the Point Guard Turns. Each week we’ll take a look at each team in the league and what’s going on with its point guard situation. You know that we love our PGs here at FBB, because they specialize in three of the four rarest fantasy basketball categories – assists, 3s and steals. A favorite strategy of mine is to use one of my utility spots as a rotating PG position – a few weeks with the hot hand, the injury replacement, etc. If you pay close enough attention, you can usually end up getting about 5th-6th round quality point guard production from a single roster spot throughout the season. So get ready for thousands of words on point guards!

Hard to imagine a better start for Jason Kidd. There’s no reason to have Zoran Planinic or Jeff McInnis anywhere on your radar, really … This is why I was wary of hyping Delonte West so much after that monster first game. His ability to get blocks from the point guard slot is unique and makes him valuable, but he’s not a classic point guard and sometimes the Celtics will need to go with more of a playmaker. He notched just three assists in each of his last two games, and has seen his minutes played go 41-35-22. I still think of him as a PG3. Dan Dickau provided a spark in his first action of the year, with 5/7/3, 2 steals and a 3 in just 22 minutes. Keep an eye on him, but unless he’s getting 30+ mpg he won’t be able to have much value … Same old, same old for Allen Iverson. I expect his FG% to stay closer to the 39% that it’s at now than the 42% of last season. But every game he plays you can count on monster numbers … It’s not pretty in New York right now. At least Stephon Marbury owners can feel safe. He’s seen 40+ minutes in each of the team’s three games and he’s clearly the best player on the team, so that should continue. Nate Robinson got his first meaningful action on Sunday, but he’s got a long way to go before fantasy owners need to worry about him. Can he really be anything more than Earl Boykins? We’ll see … The Toronto situation is well worth paying attention to. Reader “bublitchki” dug around for some info on Jose Calderon in the post below this one, so check it out in the comments. He can certainly play, and while Mike James is more established in the NBA, he’s still Mike James. There’s a reason he’s on his sixth team since 2003. Calderon could steal the job from James, but this could just be a very frustrating situation for fantasy owners. Sam Mitchell has shown that there’s very little rhyme or reason to who gets PT. Chris Bosh is the only person I’d feel completely safe with on that team. But Calderon is outplaying James so far and is seeing more PT. He’s worth a look in deep leagues, but it is a bit disconcerting to see just four attempts from three-point range so far. But if that’s what it takes to keep that FG% around 60%, it’s not so bad.

The Pistons are in midseason form, with two blowouts out of three games so far, which is keeping the starters’ minutes down. Chauncey Billups is off to a rough start, but his numbers will be there soon. No worries. Carlos Arroyo sure has been racking up the assists in garbage time … T.J. Ford might not be the worst sell-high candidate right now, actually. His skills are obviously better than ever, and he should have no problem finishing in the top 5 in the league in assists as long as he stays healthy. I still consider that a big “if,” and he is shooting just 38% with a single three-pointer so far. He’ll grab plenty of boards for a PG and should be adequate in steals, but he’s still not a top-shelf fantasy point guard. Mo Williams is making the most of his limited time. If Ford goes down, he’s a must-grab … Jamaal Tinsley will put up numbers when he plays. There’s no doubt about that. He’s a better fantasy player than Ford when both are healthy. In limited action, Sarunas Jasikevicius has done nothing to reverse the thought that he’ll be a very capable fill in were Tinsley to go down … Chris Duhon has had back-to-back games of his life, almost. Perhaps he’s become a different player this year, but I doubt it. Kirk Hinrich (whose owners breathed a sigh of relief after he had a great game after the ankle scare) and Ben Gordon are still clearly superior players and because all three are rather tiny, it’s going to be near impossible for Scott Skiles to ever play them all at once. Duhon should still manage to see at least 30 mpg and because he does help out in 3s, assists and steals, he’s worthy of a roster spot and starting consideration … Eric Snow is starting and putting up some truly putrid numbers. Ignore him completely. Damon Jones is stuck on 25 mpg right now, which is enough time to hit a couple of 3s, but not much else. He’s best kept on benches right now.

Gilbert Arenas probably won’t average much more than 6 apg this year (if that), but should be among the league leaders in 3PM. He’s a legit top 10 player, no doubt about it. If Antonio Daniels misses some time with an ankle injury, Chucky Atkins might have some value, but it’s just as likely that Arenas would spend more time at the 1 with Jarvis Hayes at the 2. Neither Daniels nor Atkins should be on any rosters right now … Raymond Felton will have to wait his turn. Brevin Knight is simply playing too well, and if it weren’t for that collapse against Chicago in the opener, the Bobcats would be 3-0 right now. Knight is picking up where he left off last season, averaging 9.7 assists and 2.3 steals per game so far. There are very few people in the league who can do that, and he needs to be in lineups now while he’s hot … Shaq’s injury may be just what Jason Williams needs to get acclimated in Miami. After going for 13/4/5 with one 3 in his first two games combined, he went for 18/1/5 with 4 3s in his first game sans Shaq. Expect similar numbers to what he put up in Memphis the last two year – solid, but nowhere near PG1 material … Well, as I suspected, the Joe Johnson as point guard experiment lasted all of two games. Even if Tyronn Lue continues to start, he’s an extremely marginal fantasy play. Just not enough 3s or steals … Steve Francis is putting up his usual numbers. He’s as predictable as they come, but that’s just fine. Jameer Nelson just needs a chance. He’s a better fantasy player than actual player, but his skill set would make him a monster if given the opportunity.

Jason Terry needs to start connecting from long range if he’s not going to be racking up the assists. I expect that to happen sooner rather than later. Don’t think about benching him. I’m a huge fan of Devin Harris. One of these years he will become a top fantasy point guard, but it would be nice if he would start hitting his free throws … If the first three games are any indication, Chris Paul will have a lot fewer ups and downs than most rookies. He’s had exactly two steals and one 3 in each game so far and is averaging 5 apg. Hard to argue with that. Speedy Claxton is actually leading the team in scoring despite seeing just 25 mpg. He’s good insurance for Paul owners, but not much else … The first three games of the season are a perfect indication of why Tony Parker will never be a top fantasy point guard. Sure, he’s scoring and shooting extremely well, but he doesn’t have a single 3 or steal. That’s just not going to cut it from this position … Damon Stoudamire hasn’t gotten off to the greatest start in Memphis, but it’s clear that he’s the main man and Bobby Jackson is there for instant offense off the bench. Stoudamire has been remarkably consistent throughout his career and that shouldn’t change this season … Rafer Alston is seeing plenty of PT and is hitting his 3s. Those are good signs, and with Tracy McGrady out for a while, he should be hitting at least a couple 3s a game. It would be nice to see him get his assist numbers up, and that should happen in time. He makes an ideal PG2.

Ah, Jerry Sloan. You sure know how to make fantasy owners angry. Deron Williams and Keith McLeod are in a complete time share right now, rendering both of them pretty worthless. Williams is obviously the one with more upside even though his last two games haven’t been nearly as impressive as his debut. Still, this seems like a situation you want to stay away from for the time being … I’m actually quite encouraged by Luke Ridnour so far. Despite being ice cold from the field he’s still seeing plenty of court time and averaged 8 assists and 3 steals in his first two contests. Once those shots start falling he will be a very nice PG2 … Marko Jaric has gotten off to a very solid start in Minnesota. He will run hot and cold, but is always worth having in lineups as long as he’s healthy. Troy Hudson would have same value as a starter were Jaric to go down, but he’s primarily a scorer. He’s not worth having around right now … Sebastian Telfair had the strong game he needed on Saturday. His lack of assists is a concern, but it’s sort of expected on that squad, where Zach Randolph is the only person who can shoot. At least Telfair has started launching 3s this year. He shouldn’t be on any waiver wires, but he makes pretty good bench material right now. Jarrett Jack won’t be surpassing him on the depth chart any time soon … A very disappointing start of the season for Denver. I’m not surprised, I picked them to miss the playoffs. Andre Miller has got to be one of the least exciting players to own. The assists are there, and his numbers will end up where they usually do, but man – borrrrrring. Earl Boykins has been his usual solid self, but you just can’t have much value playing 25 mpg.

Break up the Clippers! Sam Cassell’s first game may have gotten people a little overly excited, but if he stays healthy there is no reason that he shouldn’t put up numbers similar to the three seasons before last year’s disaster. Shaun Livingston is completely out of the picture right now. This is Cassell’s show to run , and he will produce … Smush Parker passed a test of sorts last night. Even with an off game he still managed to get four steals and five assists. His assist opportunities are limited because Lamar Odom and Kobe Bryant control the ball, but if he keeps launching 5 3pg and getting steals, he should be in lineups. He’s still not very established and could go cold with little notice, but he’s getting the PT now, so stick with him while he’s hot … Congratulations to those who had “1” in the “How many games will Baron Davis play before he gets injured?” pool. Luckily it was a minor injury that caused him to miss just a single game, and he bounced back quite well yesterday, but Davis owners knew this was coming when they drafted him. Derek Fisher proved a quite capable starter last season when Speedy Claxton went down and if (when) Davis misses some time, he is a must-start … OK, maybe the loss of Amare Stoudemire won’t have an adverse effect on Steve Nash’s assist totals. It has been only three games, though. The 41% shooting is worrisome, but both of those numbers (his 12.5 apg being the other) should approach their norms as the season progresses. Leandro Barbosa is thriving in his instant offense role off the bench. Keep an eye on him, but it seems evident that he’s not a classic NBA point guard … Mike Bibby owners breathed a sigh of relief last night. It still wasn’t the greatest game, but he’ll keep getting better. No reason at all to worry.

Here comes the first weekend of regular season basketball action in … well … in a long time. And here at FBB we couldn’t be more excited. 25 games, three days, and we’ll start to see some separation in the fantasy basketball standings. Coming out of the gate strong is important for sure, but making that key pickup is even more important. This weekend is going to be where statistical anomalies turn into real trends, and here’s what we’re going to be looking for:

How are those rookies doing?
Now, odds are you won’t be finding Chris Paul or Andrew Bogut on your waiver wire right now. And if you are, we’d like to join your league. But there are plenty of other rookies who are fighting for playing time and establishing themselves in rotations. Mid-first-rounders like Nate Robinson, Hakim Warrick, Johan Petro, Danny Granger and Joey Graham will either be high-risk pickups or complete waiver-wire fodder after this weekend.

We’ll also see a couple of rookies who were drafted in a lot of leagues prove to be worthless. For example, Channing Frye, who is having trouble finding the court with Larry Brown standing in his way. Raymond Felton is caught fighting for minutes with Brevin Knight – which was expected, but still.

Minutes, Minutes, Minutes
If you’re new to FBB, you might want to brace yourself, because if there’s one this we love to talk about (other than point guards), it’s minutes. And you’re gonna hear a LOT about minutes this year from us. Early surprises are Antoine Walker’s 42.5 mpg for the Heat, and Ron Artest seeing 40 mpg so far for the Pacers considering the depth of both teams.

Injury Reports
Shaq (surprise!), Baron (double surprise!) … does “I told you so” mean anything to you guys? These next few days will be pivotal to both these guys and their backups.

Free Agents Fitting In
Here in Washington, we’re quietly chuckling at the Lakers and their big offseason acquisition, Kwame Brown. But we’re also watching Raja Bell and James Jones in Phoenix, Bonzi Wells in Sacramento, and all the new faces in Cleveland.

Game of the Week(end)
Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Clippers, Friday, 10:30 PM.
Now, don’t laugh. The FBB version of Game of the Week has absolutely nothing to do with high-profile match-ups, future playoff teams, or anything like that. We’re looking for games that will be of interest strictly from a fantasy standpoint. Here are two teams with a bunch of question marks in terms of PT and the value of some of their big-name players.

For the Hawks, Joe Johnson found out pretty quickly that you pick up a lot more assists dishing to Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudamire than you do dishing to Josh Childress and Zaza Pachulia. Meanwhile, Al Harrington’s ankle injury throws another wrench in the ongoing Childress/Josh Smith/Marvin Williams

For the Clippers, the big question is if Chris Kaman will be able to recover from his 5-TO, 19-minute performance Wednesday night. Plus, who is this James Singleton guy who went for 14 and 10? Also we’ll be watching to see if Corey Maggette is back in the lineup, and if so, how effective he is.

Worry some about Kyle Korver. In one game, anything can happen. In two games, anything can happen as well, but you can start to try to pick out some trends. And here’s a trend to look at for the 76ers – it’s all AI and C-Webb. Over the first two games of the season, the Sixers have attempted 171 shots. A whopping 97 of those have come out of the hands of Iverson and Webber. That’s just about 57%, which isn’t leaving much for anyone else. We all know that AI is one of the great chuckers in the league, but people might not realize that Webber is as well. His high assist totals sometimes fool people, but this is a guy who has averaged 19 FGA per game over his career. For the record, only 10 players attempted that many shots per game last season. Put those two on the same team together, and it’s going to be tough for anyone else to get involved.

This isn’t really a problem for guys like Andre Igoudala, Stephen Hunter and – when he gets back – Samuel Dalembert. Those aren’t guys that need to have plays run for them in the offense. They pick up their points out of other situations and are specialists in other categories. But Korver is a different story. If he’s not getting his looks from 3-point land, he’s worthless. Yeah, he averaged 1.3 steals last year and shot 85% from the line, but it was obviously his 2.8 3pg that made people think he was worthy of a 5th round choice in drafts this season.

Still, we stress that it’s early. Korver did manage to hit 2 of 5 from long distance on opening night, and though he got shut out in last night’s game, it was a blowout, one in which he played just 17 minutes. There were just six instances last year where Korver totaled two or fewer 3s in back to back games, which is what he’s done in the first two games this season. But those are the ups and downs you have to live with when you draft a one-category specialist. He also hit four or more 3s in 27 games last year. These things come in bunches. It’s not like the first two games have been good for the Sixers – a devastating choke at home against the Bucks and then a solid ass-kicking by the Pistons. They are going to try to find some new things to work for them, and freeing up Korver for some open looks should be a top priority. But with AI and Webber around, even if he is open, who knows if he’ll actually see the ball?

One other quick note…

–I’m not going to tell you not to pick up guys like Delonte West or Smush Parker. You know that I am all about grabbing those point guards when the opportunity presents itself. And if you have a roster spot to play with, by all means go for it. But you know better than to expect those kinds of numbers on a regular basis. I’m a fan of West, but the Celtics aren’t going to score 114 points often and West won’t be a top assist man, although he could be a very nice source of steals and blocks (for a guard). And the Lakers won’t play OT games all the time. So just temper your expectations.