Ah, a new year. Resolutions, champagne, and – of course – reflecting on your fantasy basketball team’s first two months! And while most folks talk about shedding pounds, you should also be thinking about shedding the dead weight from your fantasy squad. One of the toughest things to do in fantasy sports is getting rid of those marginal players on your fantasy squad and clearing space for those waiver wire pickups that could really take your team to the next level. Let’s go over some of the guys that, come the new year, could – or should – be hitting the waiver wire.

Kenyon Martin, F, Den
The time is now for K-Mart. I received him as a throw-in in a trade about a month ago, and I haven’t been able to get him into the starting lineup yet. His numbers are down across the board this year, but that’s mostly due to his lingering knee problems that have forced him to miss 10 games so far this year and kept his minutes per game down as well. Now that Marcus Camby is out for a little while, though, Martin will be counted on to contribute heavily to the Nuggets rotation.

Last night was probably a pretty good predictor of what will happen for Martin over the coming weeks. He tweaked his knee early, but stayed in the contest and put together his best game in two weeks. Martin’s true value comes from his defensive numbers, where any player that gets a steal and a block has decent fantasy value. If he stays on the floor long enough, he’ll manage to return to his career averages in those numbers, and last night was a very encouraging sign. I was all ready to dump Martin, but the fact that he stayed in during last night’s game has given me pause, and should do the same for you. The Nuggets host San Antonio on Saturday, and if Martin plays 30+ minutes again, I’ll put him in my starting lineup. If he’s out, or re-injures himself during the contest, he’ll be waiver-wire fodder by Monday.

Antoine Walker
Ugh. Damn you, Antoine Walker! He was sitting there in the 12th round of my draft, so I took him and just hoped he wouldn’t end up doing exactly what he’s doing right now. You can’t start him. He’s still killer in FT% and his limited minutes and limited role in the offense have driven his overall number down to marginal territory. But when you look at his averages, he’s putting up 12.1/5.6/2.4 with 1.7 3’s and OK defensive stats. Can you drop a guy like that? Eventually, you have to. His last three games have given me encouragement that I can drop him and not see him blow up, as he’s put up just 5.6/2.1 the past week. It’s not often that you hope to see one of your fantasy players struggle, but that’s what I’ll be doing for Antoine tonight at Washington and Sunday at home against Minnesota.

Bobby Simmons
As much as it pains us to say it, this FBB favorite might be ready to hit the waiver wires himself. Despite seeing numbers similar to his breakout season with the Clippers last year, B-Sims has struggled mightily for the Bucks. His numbers are down across the board, and now he’s struggling to maintain any fantasy value whatsoever. His December numbers are particularly concerning – 9.1/3.4/2.1 with 1.2 steals, 0.5 3’s and under 40% from the floor. Sure, he’s had to deal with a shoulder injury, but averages like that with over 30 mpg are pretty bad. Those numbers don’t belong on any fantasy team.

Still, Simmons will have a chance to improve over the next few games. With TJ Ford out, Mo Williams becomes the point guard and the scoring onus will have to fall somewhere. Hopefully, it will fall on Simmons. However, if he doesn’t perform well over the next week – starting tonight against the Knicks – it might be time to cut loose.

Game of the Week(end)
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks, Friday, 8:30 PM EST
With all the talk about Ike Diogu and Adonal Foyle lately (and a little talk about our favorite Warrior big man, Andris Biedrins), how about a fast-paced, high-scoring game involving the Warriors for our game of the week(end)? Everybody’s got their own opinions about Diogu, but the only way to see who’s right is to see the game. My guess? He’ll be on the waiver wires by Monday. The only places he’s contributing right now is points and FG%, but he is absolutely killer in every other category. His last game was a total dud, with more fouls (6) than boards, blocks, and assists – combined. Yikes.

Meanwhile, in Dallas, the unquestioned 3rd best team in the league (for what it’s worth) has seen the return of official FBB Least-Favorite Jerry Stackhouse. And while he probably won’t do enough on his own to create fantasy value for himself, his return will mean less points and minutes for all those Mavs swingmen, like Josh Howard, Marquis Daniels, and Keith Van Horn. If Daniels and Van Horn return from their various woes tonight, it will be interesting to see how the minutes shake out.

Lots of news concerning big men around the league. Let’s spend 2,300 words talking about it!

Denver
Well it looks like selling high on Marcus Camby was the right move after all. The pinkie finger that was giving him problems finally gave out – he broke it – and he will undergo surgery shortly. We won’t know exactly how long Camby will be out until the surgery is performed, but this seems like it will probably be at least a three week thing. I’m no doctor, obviously, but there’s surgery involved, hands are pretty important in basketball, and it’s Marcus Camby. So expect the worst. This is obviously a huge blow to his owners who held onto him, but really, it was to be expected. Hopefully you kept a backup around for when this inevitable moment struck. Denver’s frontcourt is ridiculously depleted right now with no Camby, no Nene and Kenyon Martin being perpetually day-to-day. Barring some sort of roster move, Francisco Elson stands to become the Nuggets new starting center. He’s made plenty of starts already this season in place of Camby and also Martin, and the results haven’t been all that promising. In the four starts he made in place of Camby, Elson has averaged a whopping 2.8/6.8/0.8 with 0.5 steals and 1.5 blocks. Those numbers aren’t even good enough to get him into that “Let’s Hope I Don’t Have to Actually Start One of These Guys” class of Chris Mihm/Brendan Haywood/Nenad Krstic/etc. His overall p40 numbers are equally uninspiring – 7.1/8.3/1.2 with 1.6 steals and 1.8 blocks. The blocks and steals aren’t bad, especially since you’d think he’ll see a good bunch of time as one of the only healthy big men. But that might be a bit presumptive. Elson is just not a very good player, and George Karl’s a pretty smart guy and should realize that. With many teams finding success using non-traditional lineups in the past couple of years, this is the route Karl should – and likely will – take. Eduardo Najera should continue to see plenty of time – and also be bereft of fantasy value except in the deep, deepest of leagues – and this will give Karl a chance to continue to give decent minutes to Earl Boykins and Earl Watson. Those two along with Andre Miller, Carmelo Anthony and Najera made up the crunch time lineup for the Nugs against the 76ers two nights ago. Long story short (which, as you know, is never the case here at FBB), Elson just isn’t an option for those looking to replace Camby.

Minnesota
It’s just one game. That’s something you’re going to read a lot for the rest of this post. But you’ll also read, “Boy what a game it was.” Eddie Griffin and I have a long and storied history. The history goes basically like this – I draft Eddie. He has some spectacular games. He has lots of crappy games. I curse his name. He wreaks havoc on my team. I am too tempted by his unique skill set of 3s, boards and blocks and I draft him again the next year. He goes insane and goes to jail. I vow never to have anything to do with him ever again. In fact, if you check out this post from FBB’s infancy last year, you’ll see BV mention my “Eddie Griffin Memorial Never On My Team Again” list. It’s never a good idea to completely absolve yourself of a player, but I needed to do it for my own good. So does that mean you should ignore Griffin. Of course not. The key is that I said I would never draft Griffin again. Until he shows some consistency, he’s not someone to target on draft day. The guy in my league who took him in the 7th round – before guys like Caron Butler, Al Harrington, Shane Battier, Ricky Davis, Eddie Jones, etc. – probably can empathize with me. Good for him that he snagged Big Eddie on Tuesday, a day before his breakout performance. And what a breakout performance it was – 22/12/2 with 2 3s, 1 steal and 4 blocks on 8-of-11 shooting. If it wasn’t for his 4-of-9 from the line, that would be just about a perfect fantasy line.

Griffin’s talent has never been in question. Only Shawn Marion and Rasheed Wallace are similar triple-threats in 3s, boards and blocks, and only Wallace has the added bonus of qualifying at center. Griffin isn’t there yet, and at least in Yahoo leagues, these things can take a while. But as long as he gets the minutes, it doesn’t matter where he qualifies. The big question is whether that will happen. It’s encouraging that he started last night’s game even though Mark Madsen was healthy enough to play. Those are the kinds of moves that make fantasy players want to kill NBA coaches – starting Mark Madsen over Eddie Griffin. Michael Olowokandi is hurt and was in Dwane Casey’s doghouse before getting injured, so Griffin should have at least a couple of weeks to prove himself. The situation couldn’t be much better for Griffin. Madsen is the only other center (besides the just recalled Dwayne Jones) on the roster. So the opportunity to grab lots of PT is there. Better yet, there is no clear third option on Minnesota behind Kevin Garnett and Wally Szczerbiak. It’s not out of the question that Griffin could establish himself as the starting center and third piece of the puzzle in Minnesota.

But again, it’s just one game, and it’s Eddie Griffin. The Eddie Griffin Breakout Game is an annual occurrence that gets everyone excited and usually ends up leaving everyone disappointed. It should be noted this game came against the Sonics, who were manning the middle with the unholy combo of Vitaly Potapenko, Nick Collison, Danny Fortson and Mikki Moore. It will be interesting to see what Griffin can do against, you know, some good players. And it will be more interesting to see if in his fourth year in the league, on his third team (if you count his stint with New Jersey), at 23 years old, Griffin has some maturity that can lead to some consistency. If you were able to pick him up, cross your fingers and hope for the best. I want to say that this is the time it will all come together, but, well, you know.

Houston
Houston, we have a Stromile Swift sighting. It took until the 27th game of the season – that’s one third of the way through – and it might be overshadowed by Eddie Griffin, but we finally had our Stromile Swift Breakout Game. It wasn’t as impressive as Griffin’s, since Swift came up empty in the 3s, assists, steals and blocks department, but 26 and 13 is quite nice. Dikembe Mutombo was in foul trouble and was generally playing like the senior citizen he is, and Swfit was able to finally get some extended time on the court and show why the Rockets gave him nearly $30 million over the summer. Down by 2 with just a few seconds left, the Rockets even ran a play for Swift. He missed a close range shot, but it says something – and I do realize that something may have simply been, “Tracy was covered too well.” As with Griffin, the question with Swift is simple – can he build on this and become a consistent performer? Like Griffin, he’s a member of the Death Wish Draft Squad (sixth round in my league this year), so he makes a lot more attractive option if you’re picking him up while dumping someone like J.R. Smith or Udonis Haslem.

Mutombo is the only thing standing between Swift and a starting spot. You’d like to think that Jeff Van Gundy – with a little urging from Tracy McGrady, who helped recruit Swift to Houston – would make the move right away. That might be wishful thinking, but Van Gundy might not have a choice. With Yao Ming out, Swift is arguably the second best offensive player on the Rockets. Yes, Swift had this breakout game off the bench, and sometimes coaches don’t like to mess with what’s working, but come on, ain’t nothin’ workin’ fo’ the Rockets. OK, I got all my gratuitous apostrophe use out of my system in that sentence. I’ve personally never understood the logic in bringing one of your best players off the bench when there isn’t someone even close to him occupying a starting spot. That’s what drove me crazy about the Wizards continuing to bring Caron Butler off the bench when he was clearly their second or third best player. He moved into the starting lineup and – whaddya know? – they won three straight (let’s not talk about last night’s choke job against the Suns). It’s the same principle in baseball where managers put one of their better hitters at the bottom of the lineup to balance it out, or something like that. Um, sure. Isn’t the point to make sure your best players get the most chances to help your team win the game? Maybe that’s taking the human element out of it and looking at it too much from a purely numbers/stats point of view, but I don’t think so.

So who are we talking about again? Oh, right, Stromile Swift. BV and I have a very tasteless nickname for Stro that we won’t share with you. But I bet you’re curious now, aren’t you? No dice. Anyway, like Griffin, Swift has a chance to establish himself as one of the team’s top options on offense, which is always a good thing from a fantasy standpoint. Juwan Howard has been putting forth some good efforts lately, but even on a team as depleted as Houston, he’s just nothing more than a third or fourth option. Luther Head and David Wesley are too hot and cold as shooters. And with Rafer Alston, Jon Barry and Derek Anderson out along with Yao, that’s it for Houston right now. Last night it was five guys seeing 30+ minutes, and the Rockets at least came close to pulling off a road win, which is progress for them. Compared to Griffin, Swift has less upside, but has shown a better track record of consistency. A few years ago when he was part of that wretched Memphis rotation, he got a chance to shine when Lorenzen Wright was out for a few weeks and he came through as expected. Check out the March and April numbers at the bottom of this link. Swift’s obviously worth a pickup if you have an open slot and he’s available, and it’s really important that he establish himself over these next few games when the roster remains this depleted.

Golden State
Ike Diogu couldn’t make it three monster breakout games, but then again he had his monster breakout game a few nights ago. That 27-point, 13-of-15 performance the other night surely got him noticed, by fantasy players and his head coach. Looking for a way to snap the team’s losing streak, Montgomery put the rookie – the 6-foot-8 rookie – into the starting center slot in place of Adonal Foyle for last night’s game against the Celtics. The results weren’t too great, but it was a Warriors victory, so that’s a positive. Diogu hit 5-of-7 seven shots on his way to 12 points, but he fouled out after just 24 minutes of play. Like lots of young big men, this is a problem for Diogu. He’s third in the league in fouls per minutes for players seeing at least 12 mpg. It’s going to be hard to stay out on the floor if he keeps this up. The lone rebound in 24 minutes is also disconcerting, but there’s a bit of a unique situation here. You see, the first quarter of this game was ridiculous. The teams combined to hit 24 of their first 27 shots. There were simply no rebounds to collect. It was the best display of shooting I’ve seen in ages. Still, one rebound is lame and his 7.4 p40 isn’t too hot. BV talked about his lack of steals and blocks yesterday and although he had a nice rejection of Paul Pierce last night, it’s hard to see how a 6’8” guy will block too many shots while he’s guarding 7 footers.

There are a few other things working against Diogu. Unlike Griffin and Swift, he doesn’t have a chance to rise to the top of his team’s offensive hierarchy. Baron Davis and Jason Richardson – who has really blossomed into a star alongside Baron this season – are clearly the team’s top options. Troy Murphy is locked in as the #3 man and Derek Fisher almost always gets his coming off the bench. It was Fisher who took it to the hoop for the game-winning lay up last night. And that’s not even mentioning Mike Dunleavy or the injured Mickael Pietrus. So Diogu will have to fight for scraps in the Golden State offense, which isn’t great when he’s no sure thing to contribute in blocks and steals. And remember all that talk before the season about the Warriors being this year’s Suns? Well, not quite. Last year’s Suns averaged 110.4 ppg. This year’s Warriors are averaging 99.5 ppg. And then there’s Adonal Foyle. The veteran responded like you might expect a grizzled veteran to after being benched in favor of an undersized rookie who missed almost the entire preseason. In 23 minutes Foyle put up a workmanlike 7/6/2 but chipped in 3 steals and 5 blocks. Diogu has great hands and could build a fine rapport with Baron Davis, but he’s not an intimidating defensive presence around the rim, which Foyle is, and that’s a big advantage.

So it’s not the rosiest outlook for Diogu. But he is a starting center who has shown explosive scoring ability, and the injury bug has hit hard around the league, so your roster may be depleted. So do what you must. But foul problems, Foyle and the Warriors depth should make it tough for him to be much more than a serviceable if inconsistent second center.

Now that we’re almost a third of the way into the season, I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at how the rookies are doing so far, and which ones are worth having (and starting) on your fantasy squads.

Plug n’ Play

Chris Paul – The unquestioned ROY this year, he’s a top-10 fantasy point guard, and if you drafted him, congratulations.

Channing Frye – I was wrong, I’ll admit it. Frye’s a little up-and-down, but for a Center, he’s worth starting every night.

Andrew Bogut – He’s not setting the world on fire, but he’s doing the little things … nice FG%, almost a steal and a block a night, and nice rebounds. If he didn’t qualify at C he wouldn’t be here, but he does.

Charlie Villanueva – I’m putting the FBB fave here, even though I’ve got him on my team and he’s usually on the bench. But you can’t ignore the averages – 12.3/5.6 with .8 steals, .7 blocks, and .7 threes.

On The Verge

Deron Williams – Williams has really regressed in December, but that’s mostly due to losing his shooting touch. Once he finds it, he should be back in you starting lineup.

Luther Head – Head has shows that he has the ability to be a fantasy starter, if only because of his threes. But unless he’s getting 35-40 mpg, he won’t have value, and that’s a tall order for any player.

Nate Robinson – If Larry Brown ever figures out who (if anyone) he likes on his team, and if Robinson is one of those guys, he could have value. But where are the assists?

Sarunas Jasikevicius – He’s worth the hype, and if he starts seeing 35 mpg he’ll be a great pickup. He should be on a roster.

Over-Hyped

Ike Diogu – He’s a hot pickup right now, but he’s played almost 200 minutes this year and has only 4 blocks and 4 steals to show for it. If he gets 25 mpg he’ll be ok in points and boards, but right now he’s nothing more than a poor man’s Zach Randolph, at best.

Danny Granger – If he only had marginal value right now, with Artest out and no one to fill minutes, how is he supposed to have any value once the Pacers get some players in a trade?

Jose Calderon – He’s getting 30 mpg and just barely has enough value to move off and on the waiver wire. He won’t get any more minutes, so his production has pretty much maxed out.

Can’t Find the Time

The following guys are just not getting enough minutes, but should an injury or two (or three) occur, they could really have value:

Raymond Felton
Joey Graham
Shavlik Randolph
Hakim Warrick
Salim Stoudamire
Sean May
Wayne Simien
Daniel Ewing
David Lee

Can’t Find the Skills

These guys all have the opportunity for minutes sitting right in front of them, but just aren’t earning it:

Marvin Williams
Jarrett Jack
Johan Petro
Francisco Garcia

Give ‘em Time

High schoolers and young ‘uns, well, it’s too early to tell, but it’s likely they won’t do you much good this year.

Martell Webster
Andrew Bynum
Yaroslav Korolev
Gerald Green

They Were Drafted?

These guys have already disappeared. Maybe next year, GM’s!

Fran Vazquez
Antoine Wright
Julius Hodge
Jason Maxiell

I’ve been waiting at least a week now to write about Ron Artest. The idea would be to wait until he got moved, and then go over the plusses and minuses for each player involved and a couple of ancillary guys as well. Then last week came and went with no deal. Now it looks like we’re still a little bit away from a deal. And while Artest isn’t on any NBA courts near you, he’s still filling up a precious roster spot for an owner in your fantasy league. And the longer that Donnie Walsh waits to move him, the longer Artest will contribute nothing to your fantasy squad. However, just because Artest isn’t playing doesn’t mean that he can’t have value for your fantasy team – even if he’s not on it.

Let’s get back to the basics for a second: when you’re playing fantasy sports, you’re gambling (like I needed to remind you). Even if you’re not in a pay league, you’re still gambling. You’re betting that over the course of the season, the players on your roster will combine to play better than everyone else’s players. And the way to do that is to accumulate the best talent – based on YOUR analysis – over the course of the year. What that means is that a certain player can have vastly different value according to each owner in your league.

Now, most of the time, a player’s value will be perceived pretty similarly across the board. No one is going to mistake Dirk Nowitzki for a second-round value, and no one would consider, say, Eddy Curry as a third-round-value kinda guy. So every time you see trades involving those players, both owners involved in the trade are pretty aware of what the other guy is thinking.

Still, there are some players where one owner will vastly disagree with another. You see this a lot on draft day, as you see owners reaching high for picks that they clearly value higher than other owners. But usually after the first couple of weeks shake out, everyone is pretty much on the same page.

However, every once in awhile, in the middle of a season, a player’s value will come into question, and we’ll see that disparity in owners’ opinions that is usually reserved only for draft time. That’s what’s happening right now with Artest. We’re getting plenty of questions about him, meaning that his perceived value is all over the table.

With all that in mind, let’s get back to how to handle Artest. The first thing you need to do is figure out how YOU value Artest. For me, I’d say he’s about a fifth round pick, with the following reasoning: He’s generally a late second/early third round value. However, because we don’t know when he’ll actually return to the court, or what sort of situation he’ll be in, I’m going to dock him 2-3 rounds of value. But that doesn’t mean that you or other owners in your league don’t see him as still having 2nd round value, or that others don’t believe he’s worth more than a 7th rounder right now.

Now, it’s time to take that opinion and put it to work. If you’ve got Artest, and have a relatively low value for him (i.e. 4th rd or lower) you should be offering him around the league right now to as many people as possible. If another owner in your league is valuing Artest as a third rounder, you’ll get him to bite.

If you don’t have Artest, and you have him valued relatively high, then by all means make an offer for the guy. You’ve got to gauge how his owner values the troubled star, and the only way to find out is to go after him. And if you get him – well, you know what you’re in for. Good luck.

Hope everyone had a good holiday weekend. It’s time to get back in the groove here at FBB…

Three Situations to Pay Attention To
Cleveland
(Ed. Note: This was written before last night’s game. Not much has changed, but perhaps Eric Snow felt my upcoming diss and decided to score some points.)
There’s good news and bad news concerning Damon Jones. After struggling to find a role with the team for much of the first month of the season, the three-point specialist seems to have won the trust of coach Mike Brown, who is using him more and in more crucial situations. Three of his five highest minute totals have come since December 15, and he’s seen at least 25 minutes in each of the five games since then. He’s played good ball over that span, hitting 17-of-38 3s, an impressive 45%. That’s the good news. The bad news is that while he’s been playing very well over that five game stretch and the Cavs have won all five of those games, it means that they aren’t likely to switch the starting lineup any time soon. Eric Snow continues to put up impossibly unproductive stat lines – it took him 16 games (all of which he started) to score 62 points, the same number Kobe reached in three quarters of one game last week – but if the team keeps winning, it’s hard to see any sort of lineup change happening. The other bad news is that Jones is a completely one-dimensional player these days. In the 03-04 season when he was with Milwaukee, Jones averaged an impressive 9.4 assists p40. Last year with Miami that number was a respectable 5.5. This year, he’s averaging a meager 2.9. For a point guard who averages barely 0.8 steals p40 over his career, this just isn’t an acceptable number. Throw in his 42% from the field and his 70% from the line and there is certainly more bad news than good news for Jones. He’s about as much of a one-category player as there is out there. His role is to fire from long range and he’s doing that plenty, so if you are desperate to pick up some ground quickly in 3s, he’s about as good as it gets. But be prepared to take serious hits in every single other category.

Charlotte
Thanks, Bernie Bickerstaff. It’s always frustrating when coaches refuse to put their best lineup out on the floor just in order to follow the conventions of position. With Kareem Rush nursing a finger injury that is seriously affecting his shooting, Bickerstaff could have gone with Keith Bogans or Matt Carroll, who are officially listed as shooting guards. They should both be officially scrubs as well, so it was nice to see BB give the starting SG nod to point guard Raymond Felton. Felton has had his ups and downs, as he has simply not been able to get the ball in the hoop. But he’s still more worthy of being out on the floor than Carroll or Bogans, especially since Charlotte isn’t going anywhere this year and it may as well see what it has in Felton. So even though he’s playing SG, he qualifies at PG, so he’s part of this discussion. Basically, as long as Felton is starting, he should be starting for fantasy teams in fairly deep leagues. Brevin Knight will be the main ballhandler which means Felton’s assists will be kept somewhat in check (he totaled 19 in his two starts in place of Knight this year), but he notched 13 in his two games as Knight’s backcourt mate, so he’s still going to be an asset there. He doesn’t have any swipes in his two starts, but his 2.4 p40 tells us that those will come if he continues to see good time on the court. Although it’s also worth pointing out that he totaled 9 steals in his two starts without Knight and none in his two with Knight, so perhaps being matched up with bigger guards is hurting his steals output for some reason. Then again, making conclusions based on two games is pretty silly. He hasn’t gotten into any sort of groove shooting the ball this year, at 32%, so you can expect a hit there. He’s eased up on the 3s lately, which is probably for the best in real life, but fantasy players wouldn’t mind if he kept putting some up. Bottom line is that someone who’s starting who has as much explosiveness in assists and steals as Felton deserves to be in your lineup.

Seattle
In November of 2003, there was no hotter fantasy commodity than Ronald “Flip” Murray. With Ray Allen hurt to start the season, Murray inherited his spot as Seattle’s starting SG and came out of the gate on fire. He started the first 13 games of the season and put up a ridiculous line of 21.8/4.0/4.2 with 1.8 3s and 1.3 steals. Not bad for a waiver wire pick up. Allen eventually came back and Murray returned to the bench, and he’s started just 11 more games in the two seasons since then, so people may have forgotten what he’s capable of. But if they have, Flip is reminding them of what he can do over the past week. After failing to find a permanent place in new coach Bob Weiss’s rotation early, including sitting out six straight contests in mid-November, Murray has become an increasingly important member of the Sonics, and his season reached a high point with last night’s 29-point, 5-assist performance in a win over the Celtics. Murray saw a season high 32 minutes of action with starting point guard Luke Ridnour sitting out the second half due to nausea. But it’s Ridnour’s play of late that has been making folks in Seattle nauseous, including coach Weiss. While Ridnour has steadied himself after a rocky start, he’s never really taken off and shown the improvement you’d expect from a third year player. He’s kept himself from being a disappointment in fantasy circles by averaging nearly 2 steals per game and being nearly perfect at the free throw line, but his 36% shooting is just plain bad. Ridnour isn’t likely to be benched, especially since Murray isn’t a traditional point guard (although he does qualify at PG in some fantasy leagues), but it’s hard to ignore Murray’s 18.7 ppg in just 25 mpg over the past three contests. He merits consideration in very deep leagues, and since he’s proven to be quite capable when given the opportunity, he certainly belongs in that same class we were talking about recently with Mo Williams, Jameer Nelson, etc.

Comet Gain
Shaun Livingston – Corey Maggette’s extended injury opens the door big time; 9.0/3.0/7.5 with 2 steals in 40.5 mpg in two starts so far. With that much guaranteed PT, he needs to be in lineups in just about every type of league.

Andre Miller – His hot streak has lasted all month – 16.8/4.4/10.3 on 54% shooting in December. Not many 3s or steals, but that FG% is especially dominant.

Gilbert Arenas – Remember that part about killing you in FG%, but dominant everywhere else? How about 51% shooting in his last five games to go along with his usual insane numbers? And the Wizards are even winning!

Delonte West – Returns from a bout of injury/ineffectiveness to put up 13.5/6.0/6.0 with 1.5 steals, 1 block and 1 3 on 67% shooting in his last two. That’s a solid all-around line if there ever was one.

Jamal Crawford – Five straight games with at least 14 points and 29 minutes. Still too inconsistent for me to ever feel comfortable using him, but if you have to use him, use him while he’s hot and while LB knows he exists.

The Hold Steady
T.J. Ford – After recording at least 11 assists in 4 of the season’s first 7 games, he’s yet to break double digits since then; still doing just enough to maintain his status as a decent PG2 – those 4.5 boards per game are nice to offset the lack of 3s.

Jason Terry – Hasn’t been as explosive since missing those two games with a hamstring injury and is shooting a career low 72% from the line; still someone to put in the lineup with confidence.

Tony Parker – Has scored double digits every game this season and that FG% is indeed holding steady, but it’s hard to look past the fact that he has just 3 3s on the season. He’s still been a top 30 player this season.

Mike Bibby – Assists are up to nearly 6 per game in December (from 4 per game in November), but now the shooting is suffering; something is going to happen soon in Sacramento, but you have to think everything will work out for Bibby, or at least his fantasy status.

Steve Francis – Playing with a renewed vigor over the last week, getting to the line and picking his spots; remains a boring if quite reliable option.

The Fall
Kirk Hinrich – Going through an incredibly rough patch lately, failing to top 14 points in any of his last six games; like everyone on the Bulls, his upside is pretty limited.

Sarunas Jasikevicius – Another guy who has gone incredibly cold from the field lately; it’s nice and all that he’s still starting, but if he can’t play more than 25 minutes, he’s of no use.

Sam Cassell – Just five total assists in two games that Livingston has started is a trend we’d expect to continue; having his worst shooting season since the Clinton administration.

Damon Stoudamire – Three straight 2-of-10 shooting performances and 7 total assists are a sure bet to get you included here.

Derek Fisher – You go with bench players and you’re bound to get burned; after eight straight in double digits, he got there in just one out of four before last night’s decent 13-point outing.

In this holiday edition of Weekend Preview, we’re going to try and tie up some loose ends. The last couple of weeks, we tried to point you towards some of the more volatile situations in the league. Now that those situations have had some time to settle down, this weekend will be a good chance to see where all of the pieces have fallen:

Portland
Fri at Minnesota, 8pm EST
One of the biggest injuries so far, at least in terms of time out, has been Darius Miles. All of the talk in fantasy circles centered on marginal SF’s like Ruben Patterson, Travis Outlaw, and Martell Webster. Well, guess again! It turns out that nobody ended up really having an uptick in value except for Viktor Khryapa, who is now playing about 25 mpg and just isn’t doing enough to have any fantasy value. It looks like the dreaded “by committee” term applies here, and that term is just as bad in basketball as it is in football.

Still, all isn’t lost in the city of roses. Just when you thought it was time to move on, Sebastian Telfair went down with a torn ligament in his thumb, making another 28.9 minutes available. This time, somebody finally got some value, and wouldn’t you know it, it was FBB-Uber-Favorite Steve Blake! We will not try to pretend that we can talk about the Unfrozen Caveman Point Guard objectively, but since taking over for Telfair, he’s put up 11.5/4/5.75 with a steal and a three. The biggest risk with Blake is that he’s still fighting for minutes with Jarrett Jack. Watch the battle tonight against Portland as Telfair could be out for awhile with his bad thumb.

Miami
Fri vs. New Jersey, 7:30pm EST
Sun vs. LA Lakers, 3:00pm EST
The other story to watch over the last two weeks has been the returns of Shaquille O’Neal and Pat Riley in Miami. Most eyes were on how the minutes would spread out between Alonzo Mourning and Shaq, and the early returns are not encouraging for Zo. Since the return of Shaq, Zo has seen less under 22 minutes in every game he’s played, and right now the only spot he can be counted on for production is blocks. Although Riley said he would possibly play the two big men together, it just hasn’t happened yet, and the Heat’s 4-1 start under Riley means that there’s not much reason to change – yet.

Meanwhile, Mourning isn’t the only struggling to establish himself next to Shaq. Antoine Walker and Udonis Haslem have both failed to find 25 mpg with the return of Shaq, and that has put both of them on the waiver wires in a lot of leagues. And the backcourt has been somewhat volatile as well, with Jason Williams missing seven games with knee tendonitis, allowing Gary Payton to see starters minutes. Payton showed that if he gets his 35 mpg, he’ll still have value, but will Williams back on the court, he’ll struggle to see even 25 mpg. As one of the few teams with two games this weekend, the Heat will have plenty of time to fight amongst themselves for minutes.

Game of the Week(end)
San Antonio Spurs at Detroit Pistons, Sunday, 12:30pm EST
Sometimes we watch games for fantasy reasons. Sometimes, we watch games because they feature two great teams on a national stage. This falls into the second category. What a terrific holiday present from the NBA to you – the two best teams in the league, with only Dallas playing anywhere near as well as last year’s finalists. Enjoy the games, and the holidays. See ya next week.

So I had a strategy this year going into the draft. It was pretty simple – draft players who were likely to play 80 games, take the best player available over the first 6-7 rounds but also make sure to get two solid centers so I wouldn’t have to play the dreaded “Find a Second Center” game, and do not ignore percentages. It worked pretty well, I think. In a 12-team league I got Dirk-Yao-Pau-Kirk-Cuttino-Sheed-Rip with my first seven picks. I felt that with those picks guys I had seven guys who would stay in my lineup all season, and that included two centers and two guys with an outside shot at qualifying at center.

So you can imagine my frustration now that Yao is going to miss approximately six weeks with a booboo on his big toe. First off, I don’t doubt that the big man is in pain, as when you are 7’6” and nearly 300 pounds, your feet have a lot of weight on them. But the thing is, Yao was playing his best ball of the season right before he got hurt. His last three games before sitting down he was averaging 26/11/1 on 62% from the field on 15 shots per game and 85% from the line at nearly 9 attempts per game. His blocks had been disappointing all season, but you can’t complain about those other numbers. If he had been putting up 14/6 on 43% shooting over five games before going down, then maybe I’d comprehend it a bit more. But as it is, it just doesn’t make sense.

So now I’m stuck without my #2 draft pick for at least a month. Lots of you are in similar situations, if not with Yao then with many of the other guys fighting injuries. So what to do? Don’t freak out. Stick with your strategy. You did have a strategy, right? For all the advice we give on guys who make hot pickups and all that, my team has remained pretty much in tact the entire season. With Eddie Jones and Marquis Daniels as my only SF, I needed some help there so I dumped Daniels this morning (with Josh Howard and Jason Terry back in full force, there’s simply not enough production to go around I feel) for James Jones, who should be able to help me out in 3s when he moves back into the starting lineup. That was just my fourth roster move of the season.

Yao leaves a big hole for me at center, but I kept Brendan Haywood around for this specific reason. This was another part of the strategy – don’t be left without a quality backup at the key positions, those obviously being PG and C. Haywood’s no star, obviously, but he certainly qualifies as a quality backup. His PT is a bit volatile, swinging between 20 and 30 minutes per night, but he does what you want a fill-in center to do: hit a high percentage of his shots and block some shots. His 57% from the field should come down a bit, but he is a 53% career shooter, so there shouldn’t be too much of a drop off. A good number of his shot attempts are layups/dunks/follows. And at 2.0 blocks per game, there are only 14 guys better than him there. What you want from injury fill-ins is to not lose ground. Everyone team in your league will suffer through injuries at some point during the season, and how they deal with them will go a long way towards determining who will end up at the top of the standings.

One thing I certainly won’t be doing is making a panic deal for another center. If you play in a league with people that pay attention, most people will see someone with Yao on their team and think that they’ll be able to gouge that owner for an extra center. The odds just aren’t in my favor in a situation like this. Would I love to someone like Jermaine ONeal manning my other center spot instead of Brendan Haywood? Of course. But to get him I’d have to deal from another strength, and then you invariably end up creating more holes for yourself. Basically, I go with under-management as opposed to over-management as a general rule. That is, as long as you have good players.

And I suppose I should address the Rockets frontcourt situation. As one helpful, anonymous commenter pointed out, Stromile Swift did indeed get nutted by Chris Bosh last night, which led to his receiving the same PT as Lonny Baxter. If Stro has recovered he should be back in the starting lineup as long as Dikembe Mutombo is out. But unless he really explodes, it’s hard to see Van Gundy sticking with him as a starter when Mutombo comes back. The Rockets were having enough trouble outscoring anyone with Yao, so without him they’ll need to be even tougher on D, and even in his second century in the league, Mutombo is still a solid defensive presence. If you are willing to use a roster spot on someone who will help you in blocks while killing you in every other category except rebounds, have fun with Mutombo. As for Juwan Howards … he’s just so boring. He just doesn’t help you anywhere – his per 40 numbers are .7 steals, .1 blocks and 0 3s. He’s shot exactly 45% from the field the past three years, so you know what to expect there. He’ll basically need to go for 21 and 12 like he did last game every night to have even mediocre value.

That should do it for me for a few days, at least in terms of posted content. Have a happy holiday of your choosing.

Here we go. The cream of the crop. The last time we did this was in mid-November, so we may be a bit overdue. Last time’s rankings are in parentheses.

1. Kevin Garnett, F, Min (1)
The boards and assists are down a bit, but no worries – he’s still the best in the game. Plus, his 53% from the field is pure gravy.

2. LeBron James, SF, Cle (3)
Is it possible to be “slumping” while scoring 31 ppg? His boards and assists are lower than last year, which is surprising, but he’s really the only true 8-category player in the game. Still, maybe we should forget about that 30-10-10 idea for a little while.

3. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, Dal (2)
You know, what I’d love to see is Dirk handling the ball more on the perimeter as a play-maker, not just a pure shooter. I feel like he could get a good 5-6 apg if Avery Johnson would let him try.

4. Shawn Marion, F, Pho (4)
After hitting just one three pointer in his first 10 games, The Matrix has put in 23 triples in his last 13. Now, however, there’s a new concern – Shawn, what’s with the FT%?

5. Elton Brand, PF, LAC (13)
This is a huge drop-off from the top four. Brand is the MVP so far this year in real basketball – in fantasy basketball, he’s just about everything you could ask for from a PF.

6. Dwyane Wade, G, Mia (8)
The big guy is back, but Wade will still be this team’s on-court leader. Having Shaq on the floor short-term has meant a better FG%, and long-term means less chance of injury. If Wade ever develops a three-point shot (a disgusting 7.1% this year), he’ll join the fantasy elite.

7. Tim Duncan, F/C, SAS (5)
FT% in November: 78%. FT% in December: 56%. What’s it gonna be, Timmy? Other than that, though, he’s as consistent as they come, a guaranteed 20/10 with 2.5 blocks and sweet FG%.

8. Allen Iverson, G, Phi (10)
The fact that he’s now a PG makes his TO’s more bearable, and if the 76ers were any good he’d be getting MVP talk, too. He’s having perhaps his best statistical year ever so far – career highs in points and FG%, with the great assists and steals that you’ve come to expect.

9. Kobe Bryant, SG, LAL (7)
Unless your league counts shots as a category, Kobe might be one of the most overrated players in the game right now. His points are awesome to be sure, but nothing in his boards, assists, percentages or defensive numbers separate him from the rest of the upper-tier SG’s. (Ed. Note: BV wrote this before last night’s ridiculous explosion. Just sayin’.)

10. Paul Pierce, G/F, Bos (11)
Something’s gotta give in Boston. Pierce and Ricky Davis are having huge years but the C’s are losing big time. This might be the time to sell high on Pierce before his role changes a bit.

11. Tracy McGrady, G/F, Hou (6)
This is definitely too low for McGrady, especially with the solid December he’s put up so far and the fact that Yao will miss some time, giving Tracy more shots, but his back is still a concern. If he stays healthy for a few weeks he’ll be back up in the 5-7 range like he usually is.

12. Gilbert Arenas, PG, Was (9)
His boards are slightly down, but everywhere else is just as good or better than last year. He’s a top-5 point guard for the foreseeable future, but if your league counts TO’s he’s probably a little further down this list.

13. Chauncey Billups, PG, Det (NR)
Okay, we’ll bite. Billups is having a career year and is showing no signs of slowing down. 19 assists in one game? Is that even legal?

14. Ray Allen, SG, Sea (16)
He’s closing the gap on Kobe and T-Mac … if there even is a gap there anymore.

15. Jason Kidd, PG, NJN (14)
You know, you keep on thinking he’s getting too old for this, and maybe you’re right – but you can’t ignore 14/7/7 with 2 steals and nearly 2 threes. Maybe one of the most underrated fantasy players in the league, if that’s possible.

16. Marcus Camby, C, Den (15)
If we ran this column last week Camby would be in the 7-10 range. But now that he’s missed three straight games with a sprained pinkie, he’ll stay right about where he was last time. I can’t tell if he’s a good sell high or buy low right now, or something else entirely, but those numbers are tough to ignore.

17. Rasheed Wallace, PF/C, Det (NR)
Wallace is very quietly putting together a top-thirty season. Combine that with his inexplicable center eligibility and this looks about right for Sheed. The problem is, there’s nothing to suggest that he’ll maintain his 1.7 steals (career average: 1.0), 81% from the stripe (career 71%), or ridiculous 47.7% from the arc (career 33.9).

18. Steve Nash, PG, Pho (12)
Amare who? Classic Nash – the 96% from the stripe is misleading, though, as he only gets to the line 3.8 times per game.

19. Rashard Lewis, SF, Sea (NR)
I was really down on Lewis early in the year, because of his pedestrian rebounding numbers. The thing is, he’s such a plus in six other categories, you can forgive that.

20. Chris Paul, PG, NO (NO)
LeBron, Year 1: 20.9/5.9/5.4, 0.8 3’s, 1.7 steals, 42% FG, 75% FT.
Wade, Year 1: 16.3/4.1/4.5, 0.3 3’s, 1.4 steals, 47% FG, 75% FT.
Paul, Year 1: 16.6/6.6/7.6, 0.5 3’s, 2.4 steals, 45% FG, 77% FT.

I’m just saying, CP3 is on the right track.

Sometimes you just don’t see it coming. Sure, we knew that Yao Ming was having some toe troubles, but he was well-rested for the first time in his career, he’d never missed significant time, and we all thought he’d just get over it. Well, sometimes everyone’s wrong. Yao should be out at least two weeks – though a month might be more accurate – and his absence means there are some points and rebounds to go around in Houston.

Meanwhile, in Charlotte, Emeka Okafor went down last night with a slightly less definitive injury. All reports are that it wasn’t pretty and he should be out for at least a little while.

Upon first glance, there isn’t much of a connection between these two injuries, but the fact is that each opens up playing time for a sleeping giant – maybe. Both of the guys we are going to talk about in this column are serious FBB Favorites – with center eligibility, no less. Without further ado:

Stromile Swift, Hou
Stro has been begging for an opportunity (in fantasy circles, at least) since his sophomore season in the NBA. At one point in Memphis, starting center Lorenzen Wright was out for a few games, Swift stepped in, and was a fantasy stud. Then Wright returned, Swift returned to his 20 mpg, and was never really heard from again. Until this year, when he left as a free agent and headed to Houston to play alongside Yao and T-Mac – at least that’s what we thought. Really, though, he headed to Houston to sit on the bench behind Juwan Howard, and still only get 20 minutes per game.

Well, not any more! With Yao and Dikembe Mutombo out, Swift has been handed the starting job again, and if he’s on your waiver wire, don’t finish reading this column – go pick him up right now, and then come back. He might be slumping a bit statistically this year, but the per-40-minute numbers don’t lie: 16.4/7.8 with 1.7 blocks, 1.3 steals, and decent percentages. And those are DOWN from his typical output. He’s a top-15 center if he gets 35-40 mpg, and those don’t show up on the waiver wire too often.

Granted, this isn’t a long-term play. When Mutombo returns, which should be in a couple of games, Swift will have to scrap again for his minutes, which he’s proven is a big problem. Also, if he fails to get at least 30-some mpg with Lonny Baxter as his only competition, we’ll have to reassess. But for now, we’re still suckers for Stromile.

Melvin Ely, Cha
When we game-blogged a Bobcats/Nets game last month, one of the players that impressed us the most was Ely, who despite being a lottery pick for the Clippers in 2002 has been unable to find consistent minutes in the NBA. This one isn’t as much of a slam dunk as Swift, but again, the numbers don’t like. Ely’s per-40-minute numbers: 17.5/9.7 with 1.3 steals and 1.3 blocks. Granted his FT% is horrendous, but he’s a center, so that’s not too scary.

This one, though, has a couple of factors to it that makes it a little tougher to handle. One, we don’t know the severity of Okafor’s injury. He could be out a couple days, a couple weeks, or more. Two, there are a couple of other big men who could be taking time rather than Ely: Primoz Brezec and Sean May. And three, Ely himself is out at least one more game with the flu. So this is more of a one-to-watch than a one-to-act-on for the time being. Still, if Okafor is out long (and we should know more later today), Ely should be worth a spot on your bench if you can afford it.

Three Situations to Pay Attention To (Because Five Just Makes This Column Too Damn Long)

Denver
Earl Watson was one of my favorite guys to write about when doing this column last year. The Memphis rotation prevented him from having consistent fantasy value, but whenever Jason Williams was out, Watson was worth plugging in there. In 14 starts he was good for 11.9/3.3/6.5 with 1.4 steals and 1.1 3s. People thought it was odd when he signed with Denver in the offseason since the team already had point guards Andre Miller and Earl Boykins on board. Those opinions certainly didn’t change after he appeared in just one of the team’s first eight games, and Watson seemed like one of the players most likely to be moved once Dec. 15 came around. But with Earl Boykins nursing an injury, Watson has used the last four games to remind us of what he can do. He’s stepped right into Boykins role, coming off the bench gunning. In four games he’s put up an impressive line of 14.3/2.8/4.5 with 2.0 steals and a shockingly great 3.5 3pg in just 27.3 mpg. The 3s are the big surprise. He’s put up at least seven in each of those four games; he had never attempted seven 3s in a single even once before this stretch. So what does it mean for your fantasy team? Not all that much. Boykins will probably miss a few more games, so Watson will have a few more chances to show his stuff. (It should also be noted that Marcus Camby has missed the last three games and Kenyon Martin sat out yesterday’s, meaning there was more offense to go around.) When Boykins is ready to return, it’s hard to see Watson maintaining any of his current value. Andre Miller is playing some of the best ball of his career, and because of size issues, there’s just no way that all three of them can be on the court together for an extended period of time. Watson’s inspired play this past week has surely captured the attention of teams around the league, but at the same time it probably reminded the Nuggets of why they signed him in the first place. Watson’s a nifty little player, and he’s probably better to have around than Boykins, as Watson’s +9.6 (tops on the team, by the way) compared to Boykins’s –3.0 might attest. The Nuggets are in dire need of interior help with Camby and Martin perpetually banged up and Nene out for the year, so it’s possible Watson could still be shipped out. And now you know – or at least are reminded – that Watson can be filed in with the same group of guys as Jameer Nelson and Mo Williams – all they need is an opportunity.

Portland
Oh, happy day – a legitimate excuse to actually write about my favorite basketball player of the past decade, Steve Blake. If you’re a regular reader – and if you aren’t, may I ask why not? – you should know that we are Wizards fans and former Terps. So we have a long history with Stevie – I even have a Wiz jersey with his name on it. When Antonio Daniels and Chucky Atkins came on board over the summer it was clear that Blake was out of the Wizards’ plans, which was obviously disappointing to me. I didn’t mind seeing Juan Dixon leave – he’s just not all that good. But Blake, while far from a perfect player, is a useful guy to have around as a backup point guard. He signed with Portland, and like Watson, immediately found himself #3 on the depth chart behind Sebastian Telfair and rookie Jarrett Jack. Again like Watson, he was a forgotten man early in the season, appearing in just two of the first 12 games of the season. But once Nate McMillian gave him a chance, he offered some solid production off the bench and when Telfair went down with a thumb injury it was Blake, not Jack, who got the starting nod. That was quite a breakout performance on Friday against the Sonics – 19 points, 13 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 3s, 1 block on 7-of-14 shooting. Despite picking up two fouls in the first minute of last night’s game against the shitty, sorry, no-account, pathetic Wizards, Blake went for 14/5/4 with a 3 in 23 minutes, leading a short-handed Blazers squad to victory. So what does Blake bring to the table? Well, since he arrived at Maryland as a freshman he’s tried to shed the label that he’s not a strong outside shooter, but he’s actually not bad. Over his career thus far he’s 119-for-311, which is a strong 38%. For comparison’s sake, “great shooter” Juan Dixon is a career 32% shooter from long range. Blake’s a smart player who looks for his teammates but has a tendency to try to make the spectacular play a bit too often. I always argued that his game would be better suited for the NBA when he would be surrounded by players who could anticipate and handle his passes. And then he ends up on the 05-06 Blazers. Oh well. Blake seems to have won the trust of McMillian over the past week or so and should stay in the starting lineup as long as Telfair is out, which could be anywhere from a few games to a month. Just keep checking the Portland papers to find out. (Note: Reports indicate Telfair will be out for at least a month. Great news for all the players mentioned here.) As long as Blake is starting he deserves serious consideration and makes a great guy to plug into the utility spot this week, although road games against Detroit, Memphis and Minnesota aren’t the most enticing matchups.

Juan Dixon qualifies at PG in at least Yahoo leagues, and now that he’s cracked the starting lineup for the Blazers, it’s time to give him a shot. We’ve been tough on Juan around here, but we still love him. He’s still not going to be a fantasy savior and given the same amount of PT, Blake should have more value, but Dixon should hit just enough 3s and grab enough steals to have some marginal value. His FG% will always be a drag – he’ll have his good games, like last night’s 8-for-13 performance or his 13-for-22 game against the Hornets two weeks ago, but be prepared for some 4-for-15s. He’s actually been a complete non-entity in the steals department this year, but he averages 1.7 p40 over his career, so you’d expect him to approach that level with regular PT. Jarrett Jack is another person who could have some value in the deepest of leagues while the Blazers deal with all of their injury issues, but it seems like McMillian likes keeping him in a limited role. He had a very impressive 11/6/8 performance last night, but played just six minutes in the game before that. He was Telfair’s primary backup before he went down, and the fact that he was passed over for the starting nod seems to be a pretty good indication of how McMillian wants to use him right now.

Los Angeles Clippers
Shaun Livingston was a popular preseason sleeper pick despite the fact that he has already proven to be quite brittle and would be in the backcourt with proven vets Sam Cassell and Cuttino Mobley. But it was understandable based on his April stats from last season and the simpler fact that the kid can flat out play. In 10 April starts he put up a line of 11.0/4.4/7.4 with 1.4 steals on 45% shooting. Nice numbers, but he didn’t even attempt a 3 in that period. Not too bad in real life – a point guard needs to make good decisions, and if you can’t hit the 3, don’t take it – but that’s not what we look from from a PG in fantasy land. The Clippers took their time letting Livingston get healthy at the beginning of the season, sensing no need to rush him considering his past and the Clippers fast start. The 20-year old was rusty in his first game back, failing to register an assist in 20 minutes of action; he notched at least one dime in every game he played last year. But Livingston showed why he was so highly regarded in his second game back as he dished 10 assists (with just a single turnover) in 29 minutes of action in a Clips win over the Rockets. Livingston was out there during crunch time, and while that may have had a lot to do with the fact that Corey Maggette was out, it is still worth noting. He obviously has a long future in the league, but his fantasy outlook is still murky. Playing time issues aside – and it looks like he should be able to see around 20 mpg as long as Cassell and Mobley are healthy – Livingston still needs that secondary skill to help him emerge from the pack. We know the assists will be there, but what else? His 1.6 steals p40 last season was good but not great. We already know his complete aversion to shooting 3s. He shot 41% last year, so we can’t expect anything great there. Right now he’s looking a lot like T.J. Ford. Check out their rookie season p40:

Livingston: 10.9/7.4/4.4 with 1.6 steals, 0.5 blocks, 3.7 turnovers, on 41% shooting.
Ford: 10.6/9.7/4.8 with 1.6 steals, 0.1 blocks, 3.8 turnovers, on 38% shooting.

Ford has added sort of added the 3-point shot to his repertoire this year (hitting 0.6 per game on 41% shooting) and he’s seriously boosted his FG% even with more shots. So Livingston certainly has a chance to be much improved in the near future. But even if he somehow found himself with a starting job, he looks to be PG2 material for the time being.

Comet Gain
Jason Kidd – 14/9/1 with two 3s, a steal and a block yesterday – in the first quarter. You knew those assists were start piling up

Andre Miller – Speaking of piling up assists, 10.1 in the last 9 games for Miller; also picking up scoring slack with injuries piling up, but career low 72% from the line isn’t too hot.

Chris Duhon – You know he runs hot and cold; 17.0/3.7/4.0 with 3.7 3s and 61% shooting over last three is pretty hot.

Chauncey Billups – Don’t bother calling it an All-Star game if Chauncey’s not there this year; 21.3/2.713.0 with 3 3s on 64% shooting over last 3 is almost – almost – expected at this point.

Chucky Atkins – The 3s are starting to come in bunches – 13 in his last four games; with Jarvis Hayes out for at least the next three games he’s a great short-term add as he’s seen 44.5 mpg in his two starts thus far.

The Hold Steady
Gilbert Arenas – Absolutely killing his owners in FG%, but absolutely dominant in 3s, FT%, assists, steals and points. That’s not a bad trade off.

Sarunas Jasikevicius – Still a starter even with Jamaal Tinsley back? That’s good news. Expect fewer assists, but the steals and 3s should still be there.

Marko Jaric – Numbers haven’t been great (8.5/3.5/6.0 with 1.5 steals and no 3s), but the fact that he’s seen 39 mpg in the two contests since Troy Hudson returned is at least encouraging.

Mike James – A clunker yesterday, but 19.0/3.0/4.7 with 2.3 3s in the three games before that were a nice bounce back.

Stephon Marbury – Still waiting for him to bust out; after going for 30+ in 17 games last year, has done it only twice this year.

The Fall
Jason Williams – Maybe he won’t officially lose his starting job to Gary Payton, but you’ve got to think that especially with Riley on board, he’ll be on an extremely short leash when he gets back.

Nate Robinson – There’s a reason the Knicks are a team to stay away from; one day you’re a “must” pick-up, the next day right back on the waiver wire.

Damon Stoudamire – Still a solid option, but team’s recent scoring woes have taken a toll on his production; career low in steals is very disappointing.

Steve Francis – Shooting only 19-for-54 (35%) since returning from injuries, with a 20 assists/13 turnovers to boot. Quite unimpressive.

Mike Bibby – Another second overall pick that’s been disappointing; I’m still a big fan, but the 0.9 steals after tying his career high with 1.6 last year is bad news.