Archive for January, 2006
How to Block Punts.

Errr … I mean, “How to Punt Blocks.” The concept of punting a category was brought up a couple of weeks ago. Punting, especially in a roto league, is a particularly risky way to go about doing things. For example, in our league right now, the league leader has 81 out of a potential 96 points. Punting a category here would mean that you would have to basically be first in every single category other than the one you’ve punted to stand a chance of winning the league. Not gonna happen. Now, of course, some leagues will have money going to second, third, or even fourth place. So punting in order to get to one of those spots is much more conceivable. Anyhow, rather than go on a rant about whether or not you SHOULD punt a category, the fact of the matter is this: the sooner you decide to punt, the more likely you’ll be at succeeding in reaping the benefits.

So let’s take a look at one of the easiest categories to punt: blocks. I say it’s the easiest because of a couple reasons. One, blocks are very highly valued in fantasy leagues, because they’re the scarcest asset of the scarcest position (centers). Two, their value is pretty clear, but very separated by position. For example, Delonte West’s 0.8 blocks are great from a PG perspective, and a guy looking to gain in blocks would love to add him to their team, even though there might be big men out there who will block more shots … West’s position alone gives him value in blocks.

Anyhow, my theory on how to punt blocks goes like this, and it’s really the only thing you need to know about punting any category:

Every block your team gets is wasted value.

Listen, if you’re gonna punt blocks, it doesn’t matter if your team blocks 100 shots over the whole year or just 20. 1 point in a category is 1 point in a category. Meanwhile, the rest of your league is jockeying for position in blocks, so you’ve got a commodity on your hands that you can get rid of for help in other categories. But punting a category is so much more than just getting rid of your studs in that category. I mean, if all you do to punt blocks is trade Sammy Dalembert, then you’re not doing a very good job. For example, let’s say you’ve got a guy like Vince Carter, who’s got plenty of value, and is an asset to any team. But if you’re punting blocks, he’s actually a serious detriment to your team, because his 0.7 blocks, from a SG position, are tremendous value that you can’t use. Carter’s overall value is on par with a guy like Michael Redd, who blocks a terrific ZERO shots a game – as in, none, all year long. So while the guy who has Redd on his team will see a Carter-for-Redd swap as a fairly even deal (injuries aside), for you it’s a coup – You get huge help in threes, moderate gains in both percentages, and even a slight uptick in points and steals, while only really giving up a couple boards and assists.

With that in mind, let’s look at some guys to target if you’re punting blocks:

C: Brad Miller, Zaza Pachulia. Center is the toughest position to fill with few blocks and high value. Centers with value are on the court a lot. 7-footers who are on the court a lot compile blocks. Miller and Pachulia buck this trend. They’ll contribute in other categories but neither blocks more than 0.5 shots per game – that’s as good (or bad) as you’ll get for a center that has any value.

PF: Antawn Jamison. If you’re going to punt blocks, Jamison is a must-have. Why? Think about it: The stat strength most common with good blocks is good rebounding. Turning away blocks will often mean inadvertently turning away boards. Jamison, however, grabs 9.8 boards per game while only blocking 0.1 per. He won’t single-handedly solve your boards problem, but he’s a great start.

SF: Paul Pierce, Peja Stojakovic. Pierce is similar to Jamison in that he’s got very good board numbers (particularly from a G/F), plus his FG% is nice as well, which is another category you’re going to struggle in if you punt blocks. Peja is absolutely allergic to blocks, but still has plenty of value.

SG: Ray Allen, Michael Redd, Rip Hamilton. I don’t need to tell you that Allen has value. It’s all over the place. Hamilton, though, is a great candidate – he has relatively low value compared to some other guys on this list, blocks 0.1 shots per game, but has spectacular FG% (.506).

PG: Any and all. Listen – if you’re trying to punt blocks, and your PG is getting more than 0.2 bpg, you’re just not trying hard enough.

So that’s how I’d do it. Maybe next week I’ll go over another category that I like to think is fairly easy to punt. But this is a blueprint for how to go about punting any category. Hope it helps.

Checking in on the Celtics

A few teams have experienced shakeups over the past week. Today let’s take a look at one of them.

We’ll start with the stud, Paul Pierce. He has more than proven himself as a first rounder this year, bouncing back from two down years to put up numbers matching his 2000-2003 peak. The most pleasant surprise has been his 48% shooting, and he’s one of the few players who is a plus in just about every single category. According the player rater, blocks is the only one where he’s not an asset, and even there his 0.4 per game isn’t horrible if you’re using him at shooting guard. While there’s no reason to expect any serious decline from Pierce, that 48% shooting might start to drop. It already has (after being around 49% over the first two months of the season he’s been closer to 46% in January), and the departure of Davis might not help. Pierce is now really the only person on his team who can create his own shot. This might put a bit more pressure on him, and his FG% was due to drop back to his career average anyway. There’s certainly no reason to panic; he’s still the unquestioned #1 option and should continue to be a top 10 player. Just be ready for a bit of a hit in FG%.

Wally Szczerbiak landed in a pretty good spot. It’s never a good thing when a player who is having a career season and is the clear #2 option on his team is shipped out of town, but there doesn’t seem to be too much reason why he shouldn’t be able to continue his strong play. He’ll be counted on to fill the scoring void left by Ricky Davis, and should slide into the #2 option behind Pierce. He’s already fitting in, starting and playing 41 minutes in yesterady’s loss against the Bucks. Although the youth movement is on in Boston, it shouldn’t affect Wally too much. He’s got enough time and money left on his contract that he’s going to be in Boston for the long haul, so the team will be best served figuring out how he fits in with all the kids. Owners of both Wally and Ricky caught a break with this deal; trades like this almost never work out so well for guys like this.

Now let’s get to the big men, since those are the folks that everyone seems to be the most excited about. Kendrick Perkins is starting to make a believer out of me – to a certain extent. He qualifies at center and is locked in as the starter there. That’s very good. He’s one of the top rate rebounders in the league and since he re-entered the starting lineup on January 13, he’s blocked at least two shots in 7 of 9 games. Perkins is no scorer, but since most of his shots come from within five feet of the basket, it’s helped keep his shooting percentage at 55%. He’s actually been closer to 62% over those last nine games, and even if he isn’t taking more than 7 shots per contest, that’s going to help you out a whole lot in that category. He’s obviously got value at the thin position, but it seems unlikely that he’ll regularly top the 35 minute mark. And that’s going to keep him from being too valuable. See, the thing with guys like this is that they are always so enticing because you pick them up for free and you think there’s nothing but upside. But I’m telling you, it’s going to be hard to win your league with Perkins as anything more than your #3 center. In a perfect situation, he’s the guy who you make up those extra games with, not the guy you are counting on every night. He’s part of a four-man rotation of bigs, as you’re kidding yourself if you think Doc Rivers will avoid the temptation to throw Michael Olowokandi out there eventually. Everyone’s saying the right things about him not taking away time from the young guys, but I’m not convinced. If Doc thinks Kandi can help, he’ll use him, because Doc is fighting for his job right now. He wants to develop young guys, but the most pressing issue is getting some Ws. While most of us know that Kandi on the court certainly doesn’t lead to Ws, most of us know more than Doc when it comes to coaching. Also, it should be pointed out that Olowokandi is in a contract year. His one good year ever came in a contract year. I’m not sure he can repeat that, and I’m not saying he’s going to have any value – he won’t. But if he can get 15-20 minutes per game, that’s going to be bad news for both Perkins and Al Jefferson.

Speaking of Al, players like Al Jefferson ruin fantasy squads. I’ve been saying something close to this for most of the season, and I’ll continue to say it. Yes, there’s every reason to expect he’s going to be a great player someday, and that day might be relatively soon. He might even be one of those guys who over the last month of the season is a legit every day starter. But let’s get back to the facts as they are right now. He’s coming off the bench. He commits more fouls per minute than just about anybody in the league. He goes through stretches of absolute ineffectiveness that render him completely inconsistent. Just when you think he’s got it going – like a three game stretch where he averaged 13 and 7 with 2 blocks a few weeks back – he’ll follow it with the 5 and 7.5 on 31% shooting over two games. He’s been solid the last couple of games, so you know what to expect now. Like Perkins, Jefferson is only valuable to your team if you don’t need him. Know what I’m saying? If you have a solid starting 10 (or however many) and one or two decent options off the bench, than Al is a fine guy to have around for that last spot. But if it gets to a point where you have choice but to plug him in the lineup, that’s bad news. It’s all part of my general skeptical attitude towards any player that hasn’t already proven himself. Upside is an overvalued commodity in most leagues worth playing in. As boring a player as P.J. Brown is, he’s still a better bet right now than Jefferson. One simple reason is that one of Jefferson’s best traits actually works against him in fantasy. He can get to the line, but he can’t make his shots from there. Those 4-for-7s really do hurt. I know I’m about the most anti-Al person around, but I’m just trying to help. It took me many years to get off the upside bandwagon. I’ve finally done it this year and I can tell you that at the very least it’s made for a far less frustrating fantasy season.

Who would you rather have right now, Al Jefferson or Robert Swift?

Head-to-Head’s Up (1/30-2/5)

A well-balanced schedule next week in the NBA. Let’s look ahead at 1/30-2/5.

Four Games: Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, LAC, LAL, Minnesota, New York, Portland, Seattle, Utah.
Three Games: Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Golden State, Indiana, Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee, New Jersey, New Orleans, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Sacramento, San Antonio, Toronto, Washington.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Delonte West, PG – You really gotta give credit to young Delonte West who has developed very nicely in his second season out of St. Joe’s. He obviously won over the trust of coach Rivers and GM Danny Ainge as they had no qualms about including former lottery pick Marcus Banks in the Davis/Szczerbiak deal. In addition to solidifying his spot in the starting rotation, Delonte has improved his numbers each month this season and is currently putting up stats worthy of a third or fourth round pick. In 13 games in January, he’s averaging 14/5/5 with outstanding 56%FG and 84%FT. He’s also hitting 1.5 treys and 1.5 steals in the New Year. West is a no-brainer with four contests this week, including a home game against the Suns.

Juan Dixon, SG – Should we really be surprised at Juan Dixon’s success on such a barren Trailblazers squad this season? Well, Yes and No. Many of us still sport the “Juan Dixon Yo’ Mouth” Maryland Basketball T-shirts and we will never forget his MVP leadership and clutch play in the 2002 NCAA Tourney. BUT, as an undersized shooting guard, he was never really expected to be a big success at the pro level. Lo’ and behold, Juan has now started 18 straight for the Blazers and is putting up some nice numbers in the NBA. Over that span he’s delivering 17/3/4, shooting an impressive 48% and adding 1 long ball and a 1.4 thefts a game. Those are definitely everyday starter’s numbers, so he should be in your lineup for 4 games this coming week.

Eddie Griffin, F/C – After Minnesota pulled off the blockbuster trade that landed Ricky Davis and Mark Blount, Eddie G’s stint as the T-Wolves starting Center may be coming to an end soon. That said, I doubt the newly acquired Blount will be thrust into the starting lineup right away, so this week may actually be your last chance to get some good games out of Eddie Griffin. Plus, is Blount really a step up from the Kandi Man? He’s definitely a better shooter, but he is lazy on the glass and also a turnover machine with terrible hands. He may end up frustrating coach Casey as much as he did Doc Rivers in Boston. Speaking of frustrating, Griffin has given new meaning to the word for his on-again/off-again owners this season (and every season for that matter), but he has been getting some more consistent playing time lately. Over his last four games he has two double-doubles and is averaging 10/9/1 and 2.5 blocks in an encouraging 31 minutes a night. Of course his percentages are terrible, but he does not really shoot enough to hurt you much in either category. His full schedule and matchups against poor defenses (BOS, @POR, @GSW) make him worth the gamble this week.

Melvin Ely, F/C – Here’s another guy you should take full advantage of while you can. Half of the Charlotte Bobcats can be seen on the bench in their “business casual attire” these days, and the team is relieved to have Ely back this week. With Okafor and Sean May out, Euro-Softy Primoz Brezec has been manning the frontcourt and starting alongside what seems to be four guards every night. Charlotte has lost 13 of 14 and they are desperate for whatever help they can get right now. Melvin has been getting back into game shape this week, but should start and see plenty of minutes going forward. Ely makes a decent start next week, facing three suspect defenses (CLE, ATL, LAL) at home.

Tyson Chandler, F/C - Chandler is back in the Bulls SLU and in two games is averaging 13/11/1 and 1.5 blocks, shooting 84% (11 for 13) from the floor. Sure it’s a small sample, but Mike Sweetney appears to be in coach Skiles’ doghouse with decreased minutes and two straight DNP’s. Keeping Chandler in your lineup this season has been about as safe as riding on recalled Firestone tires, but he is healthy now and may be primed for a second-half comeback. If you’re struggling to find a center, you could do worse than Chandler and his nice matchups this week (@DAL, @NOR, @PHO).

Also: Don’t forget to start Kobe Bryant… He has four games this week, so he could put up 300+ points.
Stevie Franchise has resurrected his season with some inspired play lately. With Grant Hill and Jameer Nelson still sidelined, he and Turkoglu are picking up the slack.
Antawn Jamison is back to his early season form after Eddie Jordan benched him briefly. In six games since returning to the starting lineup he’s been spectacular: 24/10/3, 2.3 treys, 51%FG, 88%FT.

***This week’s blockbuster trades will definitely have an impact on fantasy hoops as well. Peja Stojakovic will not suit up tonight but will likely be Indiana’s #1 option going forward now that O’Neal has been lost for the season. It will also be exciting to see rapper Ron Artest make his debut with the Kings tonight.
Moving to Minnesota may help Ricky Davis improve on his already stellar numbers. He will get plenty of good dishes from KG and could be the team’s new top scorer. Wally Szczerbiak’s numbers may take a slight hit, but he will still be a solid contributor in Beantown.
Also, take note of what GM Danny Ainge said after the Celts/T-Wolves trade:
“We feel like we were moving Mark [Blount] to free up minutes and opportunities for Kendrick Perkins and Al Jefferson… We wanted to make it easier for the development of Kendrick and Al. That’s a priority of ours.”
Now that is music to the ears of Jefferson/Perkins owners. Out with the old, in with the new. It’s time to give the young guns 30+ minutes a night. It’s a PRIORITY for god’s sake! Al Jefferson could have a monster second-half this season if he could just show some consistency.

The Dalembert Report

First off – take that, BV! I got to use my Dalembert headline before you. Ha! (This has been something we’ve been discussing since the beginning of the season.) But there’s a reason besides sticking to BV (wait, that doesn’t sound right) that I’m writing about Dalembert. It’s because something very rare happened a few days ago. I made a trade. And not just any trade … a trade with BV! Actually, we’ve been trading partners before. I find that fantasy basketball is a lot like the real thing, at least in terms of dealing with other “GMs.” In real life, there are certain guys that just avoid each other and know that no trades will ever happen. For whatever reason, you just can never see eye to eye. But BV and I have had some success in the past making deals, I specifically remember trading for Tim Duncan a few years ago. Anyway, here’s the deal, and you folks out there can let us know what you think.

DM gets: Jason Terry and Samuel Dalembert
BV gets: Brevin Knight and Yao Ming

Here’s the background you need to know. Right now there is one dominant team in our 12-team, 8-category league. He’s been over 80 points for the past month, hovering between 80 and 85, with a consistent double digit lead. He’s got an incredibly strong team, no fewer than 8 points in any category, and is going to be tough to beat. BV and I are two of three teams within striking distance, hovering between 65 and 70 or so points. Since we’re at the season’s halfway point, it’s time to make a move. I initially offered Brevin Knight for Dalembert straight up. BV’s weakest category is steals; I need some help in blocks. He countered with the deal I ended up accepting. I say “ended up” because I spent a full two days deliberating over it, crunching some serious numbers.

I often say that trades in fantasy NBA are tough because you almost always end up trading from a strength to address a weakness, but you end up creating a new hole and things usually balance out and you don’t see a gain. And on the surface, this seems to be one of those situations. Getting Terry and Dalembert gives me a big boost in FG% (Yao’s great there, but Dalembert is no slouch while Terry instead of Knight is a huge gain), 3s and blocks. But I would take a huge hit in FT%, assists, steals and points. So I examined the standings. At the time of the trade I had 8 points (out of 12, again) in 3s. As of today I’m already up to 10 points, with 411 3s, while first place (the team we’re all chasing) has 421. Having Terry instead of Knight should give me about 80 extra 3s over the second half of the season. That should be enough to lift me to first in that category, getting me those points. And since one of those points would be from the first place team, that’s even better.

Blocks is another category I need a major boost in. It’s a category where one player can make a difference, and Dalembert is obviously one of those players. I sit with 7 points and 285 blocks right now. Above me it goes 324-336-343-353-384. I have lots of work to do there, obviously, and there’s no guarantee that I’ll be able to make a big leap. I crunched some numbers and figured the following. Right now I’ve used 411 games, almost exactly half of my allotted games. And I have 285 blocks. So, in theory, if everyone repeats their first half performance, I should end up with 570 blocks. But then you have to take into account that I’ve been playing with one center for much of this time and have some games in hand there. Let’s assume that Yao comes back soon and averages 1.8 blocks in 35 games over the rest of the season – perhaps that’s being a bit generous. That’s 63 blocks. And let’s assume Dalembert averages 3.2 blocks (lower than what he’s averaging now) over 40 games. That’s 128 blocks, so that’s a net gain of 65 blocks. Add that to my 570 and that gives me 635 blocks. But assuming everyone else doubles their first half numbers, it’s still not enough to get me any points. Since I have those games in hand at center and have three centers to rotate (Rasheed Wallace, Pau Gasol, Dalembert), I will need to fill that PF slot that Gasol was in with someone who can get me some blocks hopefully. It’s a risk, but playing for second place is pretty boring, right?

Now, ignoring categories for a second there’s still the issue of breaking what appears to be cardinal sin of trading: buy low/sell high. I absolutely sold completely low on Yao while buying ridiculously high on Dalembert. I freely admit this. I let Yao sit on my bench for a month and now that he’s ready to come back – with an effective McGrady taking pressure off him – I dealt him. This could really come back to haunt me, especially if Dalembert doesn’t continue his sterling play. And that’s certainly a possibility; consistency has not been his forte in his brief career thus far. But I feel like I balanced this out by selling high on Brevin Knight and buying somewhat low on Jason Terry. I love B-Knight (the inventive nickname Steve Buckhantz made for him), but he’s injury prone. He rarely gets to 70 games in a season and he’s been fighting through some nagging injuries lately. Meanwhile, Jason Terry is a top 40 player when he’s on his game. I crunched some more numbers on assists and steals, since that’s obviously where I’m losing with this exchange. I currently have 1584 assists; second place in that category has 1473. It’s a nice lead, but certainly not totally safe with half a season left. Using Terry instead of Knight, I should lose about 175 assists or so. So if you double my number and take away 175, that gives me right around 3000, which should still put me head of the next person if you double this. This is all very rough, but I figured with Terry and three other PGs plus Pau “Assists” Gasol on board, I should be able to hold steady.

As for steals, I’m currently second with 458. First place has 495 – he looks solid. There are five teams within 50 of me, and losing the top steals man in the league will certainly hurt. This is the category I’m most worried about, especially because it means that I’ll likely have to leave Marko Jaric in my lineup most of the time. Ouch. But like I said, it’s a gamble, and there’s not much fun playing for second place.

So, thoughts? I know that I didn’t give BV’s side of the story, so maybe he’ll want to chime in there. It really is a pretty even deal, with both of us addressing our weaknesses and hoping for some good luck. Will it help us get to the top of the standings? Time will tell…

Artesting Our Patience

Over the last month or so, Ron Artest has been nothing more than a frustration for his owners – both in real life and in fantasy. The situation came to head last night, as he screwed up his trade to the Kings by announcing that he didn’t want to play for them. Now, you can’t blame the Kings for pulling out of the deal when they realized he would be a problem for them. Now, the Pacers and Ron’s fantasy owners are still stuck in a situation where they are getting absolutely nothing out of a prime-time player that they made a big investment in.

So, after the latest development in the Artest situation, which way will his value go? To me, there’s one big plus and one big minus for Artest owners moving forward. Let’s look at both of them.

The Plus: Artest will not go to a place where he will simply be a role player.

There may be no sound reasoning to Artest’s decision not to play for the Kings, but now that his feelings are going to be taken into account, we know that he’ll only go into a situation where he’ll be given a chance to be a star. Apparently he didn’t feel that Sacramento was a place for that to happen. When you hear this quote from Artest – “I’m letting my agent handle things. He’s taken over things.” – what it really means is, “if I’m going to pack my bags, you’d better believe I’m going to want a contract extension.” No team is going to give Artest a big-money contract extension unless they’re ready to make him their premier player. The Kings weren’t ready to do that – and really, can you blame them? – and I’m not really sure that any team will be ready to do that either.

The Minus: This might not be over until after the season is though.

First, there was this gem from Artest: “If I have to sit out, I sit out the season.” So he doesn’t seem to have much motivation to get back on the court right now. Then there was the report that the Pacers could look to put Artest on unpaid suspension after this stunt, which would make them much less desperate to make a trade. Should Artest end up being unpaid, the Pacers may figure they’re better off waiting until the offseason where it’s easier to move big contracts. That would simply spell disaster for Artest owners, but the worst part is that the Pacers are unlikely to make an announcement to this effect.

The other concerning thing (ok, there are many here) is the deal that Artest ruined. Peja-for-Artest has been on the table for about a year now, and the fact that this was the one the Pacers finally tried to pull the trigger on means that the market out there just isn’t getting better. The only other team that’s been mentioned with any regularity in this thing is the Warriors, and that’s just not a very good match.

Both in the NBA and in fantasy leagues right now, Artest’s value is at an all-time low. Unfortunately for you fantasy owners, though, the Pacers have an option in front of them that you don’t have – the option of waiting until the end of the season is over to take care of this. Now, granted, this deal could end up going through later today or tomorrow and make this all moot, but for now, you’ve got to think pretty seriously about whether or not Artest belongs on your team right now – and what you might be able to get for him in a trade.

So does he belong on your team? That all depends. There’s no bigger risk than Artest right now. I said a few weeks ago that if you can get a solid starter for Artest, you should take it – something around a 6th round value, maybe even 8th. I’ll still stand by that statement. If you’re sitting near the bottom of your league standings, though, Artest is a great guy to target right now. You can likely get him for pennies on the dollar. It’s a total gamble. You feelin’ lucky?

A Quality Game Is A Quality Game

I hope you don’t mind, but I’m continuing my break from point guard related columns. I mean, by this point you all know what’s going on. At least you should. And if you don’t, you probably never will. Instead, I’m going to talk about managing your roster in non-weekly leagues. Because while it’s of course vital to have the right players, it’s just as important to know how to use them. A lot of owners like to use the strategy of taking “games in hand” during the first half of the season and saving them up for a big run in the second half of the season. This is a risky strategy that can pay off if it’s managed perfectly, but more often than not, you’ll end up leaving games on the board, which is the absolute worst thing you can do, and really, is unforgivable.

I’m of the thinking that if you have quality games, use them no matter what. If you go ahead of the pace, that’s fine. Obviously, this doesn’t mean that you should just be throwing everyone on your roster into the starting lineup when they have a game. But if the situation presents itself, you have to go for it. When all is said and done, it doesn’t matter when you accumulate the stats, just that you accumulate them. Take my current situation, for example. I find myself +2 to +3 games at both PG and G. So does that mean I’m holding off on using games there to stop from getting too ahead of the pace? Not at all. I’ve got Kirk Hinrich playing some of his best ball of the season, a healthy Brevin Knight racking up assists and steals, Bobby Jackson getting a consistent 35 mpg and knocking down a bunch of 3s, Marko Jaric going through one of his good stretches with Troy Hudson ailing and Richard Hamilton and Cuttino Mobley, who I never take out of the lineup. There is really no reason to have any of those guys on my bench right now. The only reason you should save games is if you think you’ll be able to get a higher quality performance at a later date. I can’t be assured of that with those six guys above.

But I can be sure of that when it comes to my center situation. This is where I’m saving up my games, as I’m -11 there. This is my preferred way of saving up games. I look around my league and see teams who are -5 to -7 at every position, and it’s just going to be very tough for them to make up all of those games with quality performances. Yes, the waiver wire does have some better pickings later in the season as the teams at the bottom of your league probably pay less attention, but it’s still unreliable. But if you go under at one position, you can deal with that. Like I’ve said in some previous columns, I have serious center issues, which gives me something in common with probably 80% of you. Rasheed Wallace continues to be a pleasant surprise, but when Yao Ming went down and Brendan Haywood lost his marginal value at the same time, I was left with just one option. But I didn’t go the Erick Dampier/Lorenzen Wright/Francisco Elson route. Quality is quality, and those guys weren’t going to give me quality. It helped to know that Pau Gasol would eventually qualify at center (that made my weekend, as he qualifies there as of Saturday in Yahoo leagues).

I’m taking a chance here and hoping that I can trade from my one strength to help my weakness. As I continue to go over the pace at the guard positions, those players become less valuable to me. As the trading deadline nears, I put myself in a position where the value of those players will be higher to everyone else in my league than they will be for me. While there’s still no surefire way that I’ll be able to pull something off, it should help me out. Even if I’m not able to make a deal to help make up those games at center, at least I’ll be able to focus my waiver wire pickups. If you find yourself down games at every position, you have to constantly play the wire, picking up and releasing players every day over the last month just based on who is playing that night. If I’m on target except for center and am in need of blocks, I can hone in on specific players to help me in that one category. I’ve found that’s the best approach at the end of the season, using your games to make up ground in one category. A couple years ago I needed a boost in 3s at the end of the season and had no problem using my extra games on Walter McCarty during the last month, to help me specifically in that one category. This year it could be a guy like DeSagana Diop or Theo Ratliff who comes aboard to try and get me an extra 20 blocks or so over the last few weeks.

So what’s the bottom line? Don’t be afraid to use quality games when you have them. Don’t save up too many games in hand; it’s harder than you think to use them all, especially if you only have a few bench spots to play with. And if you must save up, try to focus on one category and position. Has anyone out there come up with any other strategies for dealing with this situation?

Fantasy Game Log: Phoenix Suns vs. Seattle Supersonics

With all the uncertainty going on with court time for both the Sonics and Suns, I thought it might be a good idea to do a little game log of the Sunday night matchup between the two teams, and see if we can figure anything out.

8:12 – The guys I’m going to be watching the closest tonight: For the Sonics, young ‘un Robert Swift, who’s in the starting lineup over Johan Petro, and Vladimir Radmanovic, who’s been hanging on to his starting spot for dear life. For the Suns, Leandro Barbosa is back from an injury and is in the starting lineup as well, where he’ll be taking minutes from Boris Diaw and Raja Bell, among others. Starting off, Swift and Barbosa have both been pretty active, and Barbosa has gone 1-2 with both shots in transition.

8:15 – If nothing else, Swift is getting involved on both ends, setting picks, committing turnovers, goaltending a shot … hey, at least he’s active.

8:18 – Barbosa is not at all afraid to shoot – though he’s already missed two threes and had a layup blocked, you gotta like his attitude. Swift, meanwhile, set a nice screen for Ray Allen, and then next time down the floor had an alley-oop dunk in transaction. This is going to be a FAST paced game.

8:23 – Six minutes into the game, and Swift has been the most impressive player in the game so far. Right off of a timeout, they go to him inside against Diaw, and he posts up for an and-one, and makes the free throw. Still, it’s not like there’s anything resembling a center on the floor for the Suns. They’ve got Barbosa, Marion, Diaw, Nash, and Bell on the floor.

8:30 – VladRad might be just barely keeping himself out of new coach Bob Hill’s doghouse, but he’s not helping his cause much so far today. He’s gotten to the line twice now, but was clearly the fifth option on the floor when the starting lineup was on the court.

8:32 – Steve Nash is 2nd in my MVP list behind Elton Brand. He makes amazing passes so routinely … it’s no wonder that all the guys playing with him score at an amazing rate. If his teammates were hitting more of their wide-open shots, they wouldn’t be down by 8 right now.

8:36 – FBB favorite Luke Ridnour has been a minor disappointment this year in the assists category. Sure his FT% has been great, but that’s been offset by his hideous FG%. My problem with Luke is that I keep hoping he’ll make the leap to a top assists man, which he never does. It’s mostly a product of Ray Allen handling the rock so much, but for a light scorer like Luke, he’s gotta put up over 8 assists a game to have serious value.

8:42 – Johan Petro just went to town in the post, drawing comparisons to Dominique Wilkins from the Sonics announcers. What? Still, this is a nice reminder that as much as Robert Swift was impressive in the first quarter, this is against a nonexistent Phoenix interior D.

8:47 – Nick Collison just picked up two fouls in the span of 30 seconds, and takes a seat after only 5 minutes of play. Thanks for coming, Nick!

8:49 – Flip Murray is a guy who’ll always look tempting, but he’s just not a starter – in the NBA or on your fantasy team. He’s best as the spark off the bench like he is right now in Seattle, but he just doesn’t have the control to really be an effective starter where he has to learn to pace himself. He’s better off going at warp speed for 15-20 minutes, than at a normal pace for 35.

8:55 – Nash’s assists are high not just because he’s a good passer, but because his teammates just shoot the ball at every opportunity. So many possessions are one pass and shoot. The middle of the road guys – Jones, Bell, Eddie House, and Barbosa – are particularly guilty of this. Every time they get the ball they’re putting it up, resulting in a lot of questionable 20-footers.

8:59 – The run-and-gun style is also pretty good for Shawn Marion’s rebounds. Case in point, Bell just missed badly, but Marion got good position for the rebound and put it back up and in.

9:02 – Swift is about 50 pounds away from being a serviceable center. He might get picked up tomorrow if he keeps playing well tonight (10 and 5 in the first half), but he’s just too thin to put up big minutes in the post on a nightly basis.

9:05 – Halftime! Maybe we’ll see some defense in the second half. And maybe Comcast will fix my internet one of these years – which is why I’m not providing much in-depth statistical analysis. Oh well.

9:20 – Bob Hill needs a quick timeout after the Suns go on a 5 point run to start the second half. Radmanovic had a bonehead turnover and Raja Bell drained a three in transition.

9:23 – It’s like déjà vu all over again, as Nash finds Bell again for another transition three after a turnover. Most teams would take that to the hoop for the sure thing, but Phoenix is just as happy to take an open three as they are going to the lane for a contested layup.

9:25 – Rashard Lewis … man, I’m still not totally sold. He was huge in the first quarter, getting 11 points, but hasn’t scored since and he’s having big problems with Marion guarding him.

9:27 – Barbosa hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s getting so many shots, he’s gotta be worth picking up if you’ve got an opening in your bench. Meanwhile, the Suns are all of a sudden knocking down every three pointer they take. And there’s another three, this time it’s Barbosa’s second of the half, and the Suns’ fifth.

9:31 – Another triple for Barbosa. Go get him if you need threes. After another for Bell, the Suns are 7-7 from long range in the third quarter. Yikes.

9:37 – This could be a 100-100 game after three quarters. You’ve gotta keep something like that in mind when you see these inflated numbers. Not only are both teams scoring at an unbelievable pace, but neither side is playing D, and the game is close, so the starters will see their typical minutes.

9:40 - A perfect example of what I was just talking about is Luke Ridnour, who has around 20 points right now. He’s not really turning a corner, he’s just playing in a high-scoring game.

9:45 – Ya gotta love high-scoring games, for a lot of reasons, but one of them is that an offensive game doesn’t have any bearing on defensive fantasy numbers. Shawn Marion got another block just now against Flip Murray, and he’s had a couple tonight.

9:46 – Luke Ridnour is playing out of his head right now. FBB favorite! He’s got a career high 26 here, late in the third.

9:52 – Despite a rough start, VladRad has been on the court all night long, which is encouraging. He’s got a couple of threes and has been rebounding decently, as well, but they’ve been mostly cheap rebounds. Still, numbers are numbers. He just stole a board from Ray Allen. Good job, Vlad!

9:59 – Well maybe Swift won’t get picked up much tomorrow – he’s still only got 10 points and has been basically nonexistent in the second half. And of course, as I say that, he gets a nice block and then next time down grabs a tough board.

10:07 – Ray Allen has put up 13 points in the 4th quarter so far, but we’ve seen hide nor hair of Rashard Lewis.

10:09 – Even though I’m not totally enamored with Swift, these Seattle announcers love him. They were particularly impressed with how he took a deep breath before shooting a free throw. Y’know, just like Dominique Wilkins!

10:14 – Not to harp on this, but the announcers just called Swift “seven feet of lumber.” He is getting crunch time minutes, though, which is far more important than his wooden characteristics.

10:17 – Tie game, and when it matters most, the Suns are going strictly to Marion and Nash. No big surprise.

10:19 – Seven feet of lumber can’t catch the ball, and there goes the Matrix with a steal and a breakaway dunk to put the Suns up one with 15.7 left.

10:21 - Allen for three! 21 points in the 4th for Allen, and he’s been every bit as good as Kobe and T-Mac this year. Nash responds with a huge layup, and now we’re tied with 1.6 left.

Well, the game might be going to overtime (nice last shot there, Rashard Lewis), but I’m not. So what have we learned tonight? Well first off, the return of Barbosa is just another weapon for the Suns. He will take some value from Bell, Diaw, Jones, etc., and if you really need three’s I’d say pick him up. That said, the only two guys with really good value for the Suns, obviously, are still Nash and Marion. After that, it’s kind of a crapshoot night to night.

For the Sonics, Robert Swift is officially on my radar screen, but I’ll let someone else take the plunge for now. He had a nice game but against a team with no interior presence, and I need to see him put up nice numbers against an actual center before I pick him up. Radmanovic, meanwhile, has played well enough to stay in the rotation, and since I’ve got him on my team, that’s a good thing.

*** Update: After checking the box score this morning, a couple things stuck out. One, VladRad played 52 minutes, the most of any player. Two, Rashard Lewis scored only 17 of his team’s 152 points. Sure he got abused by Marion, but that’s just not very good for Rashard. For the Suns, Kurt Thomas had 5 blocks, and I didn’t remember more than two. Very sneaky, Kurt!

Head-to-Head’s Up (1/23-1/29)

Another busy schedule this week. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for 1/23-1/29.

Four Games: New Orleans, Houston, Toronto, New Jersey, LAC, Atlanta, Boston, Milwaukee, Denver, Utah, Golden State, Phoenix, Sacramento, Memphis, Detroit, Charlotte, Cleveland, Orlando, Philadelphia, Miami, Minnesota.
Three Games: Indiana, San Antonio, Chicago, Washington, Seattle, Dallas, New York, Portland.
Two Games: LAL.

According to The Salt Lake Tribune, with his point and rebound totals already in double figures in a blowout win over the Raptors, Kirilenko spent much of the fourth quarter trying to get the two assists that he needed to record his first career triple-double. When he was just one short, he grabbed an offensive rebound, passed to teammate Devin Brown, and immediately told him to shoot the ball. Brown converted despite defensive pressure, and Kirilenko celebrated with a fist-pump. Brown said after the game, “I had to shoot it regardless because he’s up there stat-watching.”
…LOL, wouldn’t it be great if all your fantasy players were this adamant about filling their stat-line?

You probably don’t need me to tell you that Andrei Kirilenko (20/9/6, 2.8spg, 3.3.bpg in Jan) and Samuel Dalembert (13/11/1, 3.6bpg, 65%FG) have been wicked monsters lately. That said, make sure AK-47 and Slammin’ Sam are in your lineups this week.
As long as he stays healthy, Magic PG Jameer Nelson looks like an everyday starter for the rest of the season. Minutes should not be a concern whether he’s coming off the bench or not. Grant Hill will be lucky to play half of their remaining games, and Steve Francis’s nickname going forward will now be “Migraine,” since “Franchise” doesn’t exactly fit the bill anymore.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Morris Peterson, G/F
– Sharp-shootin’ Mo Pete was never really a flashy fantasy player but he’s been rather solid this season. The former Spartan is posting career highs in pts(14.3), rebounds (4.8), threes (1.9), and has come on strong lately. Over his last 11 games he is averaging 16/5/3 with great percentages (50%FG , 87%FT) plus 2.3 treys and a theft per contest. Save for one game in which he was tossed early for pimp-slappin Vince Carter, Mo Pete has logged 40 minutes a night over that span. Peterson has a full schedule coming up and faces some suspect defenses next week (@LAL, @DEN, CHI, @MIL), so don’t be scared to plug him in like a Glade air freshner.

Josh Childress, G/F – Childress has yet to breakout as many of us had hoped, but he is gradually improving his game and contributing consistently off the bench for the lowly Hawks. It wouldn’t hurt if he were a bit more aggressive on offense as his 54% shooting from the floor and 52% from downtown this season are downright nasty. He’s averaging 10/6/2 with 1 spg, 0.7 bpg, 0.7 threes, and great percentages (59%FG, 75%FT) in January. It’s nothing spectacular but he helps you in every category. Three out of four matchups this week against defenses that rank in the bottom half of the league (CLE, PHO, @CHI) will help fill your fantasy boxscores.

Kenyon Martin, PF – I stopped shopping at K-Mart and gave up on the gimpy Nugget about a month ago, but he’s delivered some big numbers recently. Fresh off consecutive double-doubles, he’s averaging 15/11/1 with a steal and a block over his last four games. I still don’t trust him any farther than BV can throw him, but you might as well roll the dice and get him in your lineup for four games this week, especially while Cotton Camby is still out.

Juwan Howard, F“Juwan to buy me a six-piece Chicken McNugget?” How lame was that commercial? I hate to recommend such a softy, but you can’t ignore Howard’s numbers in ’06: 18/9/1 on 48% shooting. He’s obviously reaping the benefits playing on a team without Yao, T-Mac, Stromile, and Derek Anderson, so don’t get too excited. Juwan is about as boring as they come, but he can help out right now if you’re in need.

Bobby Jackson, PG – Damon Stoudamire’s backup has put up pretty decent numbers (14/5/4, 1.9 threes, 1spg) since being inserted into the starting lineup a couple weeks back. He may be listed as a point guard but the 33-year-old hasn’t averaged more than 3.3 assists/game since his rookie season. His value is basically limited to 3-pointers and scoring, but he makes a solid start right now while he is healthy and getting plenty of PT (34 mpg in Jan).

Raymond Felton, PG – He’s started seven games in a row now and is beginning to show a little more consistency. He’s averaging 13/5/4 with a respectable 46%FG and 1 three-pointer a game over that span. Starting SG Kareem Rush has been nursing injuries for about a month now, and Brevin Knight is still in and out of the lineup with back spasms. The former Tar Heel should continue to improve and see plenty of minutes this coming week.

I almost listed SG Kevin Martin here, but he has just been too inconsistent over the last month filling in for Bonzi Wells. Check out this interesting stat though: in Martin’s 13 starts, the Kings have a 5-1 record when he plays 37+ minutes, but are only 2-5 when he logs less than 37 min. Rick Adelman would be wise to get his second-year guard more time on the court.
A couple others you should consider: SG Jamal Crawford - now starting while Marbury is out. C Kendrick Perkins - back in Boston’s SLU with Blount soon to be shipped out of town (12.3 pts, 8.3 rbds, 1.3 blks, 68%FG in last 3 starts).

The Leap

It’s often said that the NBA is a superstar’s league and the same is true in fantasy. It’s great to have solid contributors up and down your roster, but if you plan on winning, you need to have superstars. The list of superstars doesn’t change much from year to year, and the very top almost never changes. LeBron, KG, Matrix and Dirk were the consensus top four coming into the year and they are the top four players right now. But in that next batch of superstars – which I consider top 30-35 players – there are always a few new names each year. Let’s look at the guys who did it this year.

Chris Bosh
Before the season started, I was skeptical as to whether we’d see a big jump in Bosh’s numbers. I figured it was just going to be his third season (at just 21 years old, too), he would still need to muscle up a bit to bang around with the big bodies in the league and that he wouldn’t have enough help in Toronto. But none of those factors have hindered Bosh and in fact, the last one has really helped him. It was pretty clear coming into the season that Bosh would be the #1 option on the Raptors, which is always a good thing for fantasy purposes. The only downside to this is that it can sometimes have an adverse affect on a player’s FG% since he is left launching so many shots. And that’s what makes Bosh’s season that much more impressive, that he’s taking 25% more shots and has dramatically upped his FG% so dramatically. I talked about this at length last week, so I won’t go into that much more. Bosh is up to 2.5 apg this season and when more and more double teams start coming, he’s going to have to continue to learn how to spot the open man. When that number rises – along with his blocks – we’ll start to talk about Bosh as not just a superstar, but a top 10 player.

Jason Richardson
J-Rich was a tough player to read coming into the season. While the Warriors were ignited by the arrival of Baron Davis at the end of the season and played some great ball, Richardson’s numbers took a hit when Baron became the alpha male in Oakland. So that scared people off, but then all the talk about the run ‘n’ gun Warriors being this year’s version of the high-scoring Suns made J-Rich an attractive name again. So what happened? The Warriors have been largely a bust, not even averaging 100 ppg on the season, but J-Rich has emerged into a legit fantasy difference maker. If you look at his numbers compared to last year’s there’s really not too much of a difference, and you could argue that it was really last year that he made the leap. But the possibility of Baron killing his value, along with some slight improvements made it a sure thing this year. Richardson is averaging 2.1 3pg this season, a new career high that puts him in the top 10 in the league. I am usually of the opinion that for a player to be a true fantasy superstar, he needs to be a dominant force in at least one category, and that’s the case with J-Rich now. Like Bosh, he’s also working on a career high FG% on career high FGA, which is always a great sign. And while 0.6 bpg isn’t something to jump up and down about, as BV was saying a few days ago, getting that from a guard can make more of a difference than you think.

Carmelo Anthony
Here’s another player that I was skeptical of coming into the season. I never bought into the ‘Melo hype from the start and the regression he showed last year led me to believe that he would always be overrated in both reality and fantasy. But Anthony has proven me wrong and has emerged into a legit top 30 player in his third season. Right after I got through saying that a true fantasy superstar needs to be a dominant force in at least one category, I talk about ‘Melo, but the fact is that while it’s tough to be dominant in points, ‘Melo actually is. In fact, according to the Player Rater, ‘Melo gives you as much value in points as J-Rich does in 3s. To continue the trend that seems to hold true to players making the leap, ‘Melo is shooting 46.4% — a dramatic increase from last season’s 43.1% — and he’s doing it while taking a career high 19 shots per game. Perhaps my favorite aspect of ‘Melo’s game is his relentlessness at attacking the basket. It’s easy for young players to get enamored with their jumpshots and it’s usually not for the best. After taking 2.6 3pg in his rookie season (connecting on 32%) and 2.1 per game last year (connecting on 27%), he’s down to just 1.9 attempts this year. The simple fact is that ‘Melo isn’t a very good outside shooter. Perhaps he’ll develop over time, but right now it’s not one of his strengths. So instead, he’s heeded his coach’s advice and is getting to the line, and he’s doing it better than anyone in the league except for some guys named Iverson, Wade, Bryant and James. He’s taking higher percentage shots and scoring more points. His steals have also rebounded back to a solid 1.3 per game this year and while he will likely never be in the same league as his draft buddies Dwyane and LeBron, he’s looking like at least a top 30 player for many years to come.

Pau Gasol
For Pau, it was all about the minutes. He’s not really playing any better than he was last year – in fact, his percentages are way down, from 51% and 77% to 49% and 67% – but when you are one of the most talented players in the league and are the #1 option on your team and go from playing 32 mpg to nearly 40 mpg, the bump is going to be significant. Gasol has made the leap because Mike Fratello let him make the leap, basically. He trusted Gasol to be the centerpiece of the team, and Gasol has responded and led the Grizzlies to the fifth best record in the league, which unfortunately for them looks like that will draw them a first round matchup against the Mavericks in which they don’t even have home court advantage. Back to Gasol, the extra minutes have allowed him to become a top 10 force in blocks while also being on the verge of a 20/10 guy. But the area where Gasol has made the biggest improvement is in assists. His 4.3 per game is a huge asset coming from a PF, and actually puts him around the top 30 in the league. While his FT% is a definite negative, it’s not a killer; I’ve got him on my team and am comfortably in second place in the category. And it’s no coincidence that I’m in first in assists.

Mehmet Okur
Yes, we all love Andrei Kirilenko. And for the record, I am predicting that at some point in the next five years Kirilenko will do the impossible and record a QUINTUPLE DOUBLE. That’s right, not just a quadruple double, but a QUINTUPLE DOUBLE. But AK47 made the leap a couple of years ago. It’s Memo that has done it this year. He’s done it in a quiet manner, quite fitting since he plays for Utah, the least exciting team in the league, but the numbers don’t lie. He qualifies at center, is averging 18 and 9 to go with a block and a 3 per game on very solid percentages. He’s another guy who might not be especially dominant in one category, but he’s pretty close in rebounds, where he falls just outside the truly dominant group of Ben Wallace, Shawn Marion, Tim Duncan, Dwight Howard and KG. He’s especially been a monster lately, grabbing 10.6 per game in January, as he and Kirilenko are proving to be a great team. Carlos Boozer’s return might have an impact, but you get the feeling that Boozer doesn’t want to ever play again and the Jazz might be OK with that. Not really, but you know what I mean. He doesn’t really look young, but Okur is only 26 years old and is in the prime of his prime. He’s a perfect player for Jerry Sloan and for the most part has managed to avoid Sloan’s crazy PT issues, averaging 35.4 mpg on the season, a very healthy number for a center.

Making The Leap Next Year?
Dwight Howard
– He needs to score more and/or get that FT% up. Until then he’s just a really good complementary guy.
David West – One of the most pleasant surprises of the year, just need to see him do it for a whole season.
Josh Howard – Dallas’s depth and his lack of one standout skill might keep him from truly emerging.
Andre Igoudala – The silent assassin; you may think he’s been disappointing, but watch him finish in the top 40. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him get his 3pg up from 0.6 to 1.0 and steals up from 1.6 to 2.0. Then you’ve got a superstar.
Samuel Dalembert – Health and consistency are all that stand in his way.
Gerald Wallace – See above.

New! Updated! Top 20!

I’m in a last-minute pinch-hitting role today, but it’s always fun to talk about the best players in the game. Keep in mind, this is my idea of a players value over the rest of the season. So, guys who might be better when they’re healthy – say, Yao Ming or Amare Stoudamire – aren’t going to be on the list. Last month’s rankings are in parentheses. Moving ahead:

1. Kevin Garnett, F (1) – He’s shooting 54.7% from the field, and until someone is indisputably better than him, he’ll stay in first place.

2. LeBron James, SF (2) – So he won’t be Oscar Robertson, but that’s okay. The next step for LeBron will be improving his FT%.

3. Shawn Marion, F (4) – Beats out Dirk because of the blocks, but it’s really neck and neck. His FT% has fallen but you’ve gotta think he’ll pick it up eventually.

4. Dirk Nowitzki, PF (3) – A slight drop from last year in boards and steals. I’d still like to see him pick up his assists numbers, as well. He handles the ball so much around the perimeter, you’d figure he’d average more than 2.7 per game.

These first four guys are the unquestioned four best fantasy players in the game right now. The drop is pretty severe after this, and while these next guys are all great fantasy players, they are not members of the elite.

5. Elton Brand, PF (5) – His points, boards, blocks, and FG% are all up – and the Clippers are 20-14. If they end the season over .500, he’ll be a serious MVP candidate.

6. Andrei Kirilenko, F (NR) – Look at his FG%: 36% in November, 40% in December, and now 53% in January. He’s seen a similar ascent in FT%. AK is longtime FBB favorite and I’m hoping he can stay healthy, even though he’s not on my team. And we talked about double-dipping defense how about 2.8 steals and 3.3 block in January? Incredible.

7. Kobe Bryant, SG (9) – After 6 forwards, Kobe will take the highest spot from a G or C because, well, points are points. And he is a man on a mission this year. He will be huge down the stretch for the Lakers if they’re still in it.

8. Ray Allen, SG (16) – 3.2 triples per game? 90% from the stripe? Awesome. He’s about 1 board and 1 block per game from being #5 on this list.

9. Gilbert Arenas, PG (12) – FBB’s hometown hero belongs in the All-Star game. From a fantasy perspective, his uptick in assists has been a nice surprise.

10. Allen Iverson, PG (8) – He’s putting up his highest FG% since his 2nd year in the league, and he’s committing less turnovers as a PG than he did as a SG. He’s really matured on the court over the past couple of years, but how can his team be so mundane?

11. Dwyane Wade, G (6) – His three-point shooting (or lack thereof) is the only thing keeping him from being much higher on this list.

12. Tim Duncan, F/C – Yep, it took us 12 spots until I could put a center here. I’m a Duncan owner and man, I’m just terrified he’s going to sit for a few weeks due to his foot problems. So because of my paranoia, he’s this low – but really, he’s more like 8th or so.

13. Rasheed Wallace, F/C (17) – How long can he keep this up? 2 threes, 1.3 steals, 1.5 blocks, that right there is enough to get you in the Top 20. Being C-eligible with those numbers puts you in the Top 15.

14. Chauncey Billups, PG (13) – He’s putting up 19 and 9 in January, and he’s everything you want in a PG (except for the steals, which is surprising).

15. Paul Pierce, G/F (10) – As predicted in this spot last month, Pierce’s rebounding is down in January, but his assists are up and his FG% is still astounding for a volume shooter like he is.

16. Tracy McGrady, G/F (11) – Oh man, this doesn’t look good at all. He’s talking about being back later this week but who knows when the back will flare up again. The Rockets are so far out of it right now, that if his back doesn’t improve he might shut it down later in the year.

17. Jason Kidd, PG (14) – Very quietly, he’s still very good. He’s posting his best FG% in years, which used to be a big sore point for Kidd.

18. Steve Nash, PG (18) – Keeps going, and going, and going … nothing new here.

19. Rashard Lewis, F (19) – He hasn’t done anything to lose his spot in the Top 20, so I’ll let him stay, but really there are a couple of other people knocking on the door here.

20. Samuel Dalembert, C (NR) – If I didn’t own him, I wouldn’t put him here, but man oh man have I been happy with this guy. His January numbers (13.3/11.3, 3.9 blocks, 66.7% from the field) have been unbelievable.