A few weeks ago BV touched upon some players who were double threats in the two defensive categories — steals and blocks – and who might be overlooked since they contribute in the “forgotten” categories. If you ask me, though, at least with serious fantasy basketball players, steals and blocks aren’t really ignored. I mean, Andrei Kirilenko is a golden god in fantasy circles. No, if you ask me the real ignored categories are the percentages. I am – or at least was – as guilty of this as anyone. I became enamored with guys who would get me big 3s, steals and blocks – the Baron Davises and Josh Smiths of the worlds – and would always end up fighting to stay in the middle of the pack in percentages. But this year I made a concerted effort not to ignore the percentages, specifically by drafting high percentage big men with my first couple of picks and scooped up Rip Hamilton later on. There’s almost a sort of “Moneyball” scenario at work here. For a long time, it was steals and blocks that were often undervalued, making guys who excelled in those categories more valuable than they were perceived. But then people caught on to that value and guys like Eddie Griffin, Josh Smith, etc. went from being sleepers to guys drafted before established veterans. The market shifted. Percentages became the new place to find value. It’s just like how everyone thought that Billy Beane and the Athletics (sorry to get all baseball on you for a moment) only went after players who were high OBP guys. That wasn’t necessarily the case, that was just where the best market value lied. After other teams caught on to the fact that OBP was a valuable commodity, the market evened out and those players didn’t come at bargains, so Beane and the A’s had to look for different ways to find an edge, moving to defensive statistics and other shit that guys with Ivy league educations can figure out. And I feel like that’s the shift we’ve seen from 3s/steals/blocks to percentages, at least in very competitive fantasy basketball leagues. So with that said, lets look at some of the players who are best at getting the ball into the basket the majority of the time. This isn’t a definitive list, by any means, just calling out a few folks.
Chris Bosh
Some people might be a bit disappointed with Bosh this year. Yes, he’s upped his scoring dramatically, but he hasn’t emerged into a shot blocking force, down to 1.2 bpg from last year’s 1.4, and his steals have remained below 1 per game. But Bosh has become arguably the most dominant percentage player in the league this season, making him a borderline first-round value. Bosh shot 47% last year, which is very good, if not exactly dominant for PF/C. But this year he has taken it to a new level. He’s attempting 15.7 shots per game (up 3.3 from last year) and is connecting on nearly 51% of his shots. Percentages are easy to ignore because they are hard to compute value. Everything else is a counting stat – two steals is two steals, 13 rebounds is 13 rebounds – but 51% shooting isn’t always equal. In fact, it rarely is. You’ve got to consider volume, and there’s no easy way to account for it. I like and trust ESPN’s player rater. According to that, Bosh’s 51% shooting on 15.7 shots per game is exactly as valuable as LeBron James’s 1.7 steals per game. Bosh also gets major points for upping his FT% to 81% and for getting to the line just over eight times per game. Having a center who can actually help you in FT% is a major boost. Bosh is clearly a stud, and if he can ever get those blocks around 2 per game, he’ll be a no-brainer first rounder for many years to come.
Yao Ming
Even without taking into account his current injury, Bosh has actually surpassed Yao. But the two players are quite similar. Yao’s lack of blocks this year was surely disappointing, as he got up to 2.0 last year before dropping down to 1.4 before going down with a toe injury. His FG% was down to 51% this year after reaching 55% last year, but on two more shots per game this year, he still has plenty of value there. His 84% free throw shooting on 6.4 attempts per game is also plenty valuable.
Brad Miller
Everyone loves to talk about Miller’s prowess in assists, and he’s certainly a huge contributor there. But when you break down the numbers, he’s almost just as valuable in FG% and FT%. Miller is shooting 51% on the season, and has been around that number for his entire time in Sacramento, so he’s a pretty proven commodity there. Even though he’s attempting just four free throws per game this year – his lowest since the 00-01 season – he’s connecting at a career high rate of 85%. While his 0.5 blocks (compared to 1.2 per game the last two seasons) is pretty unforgivable for a center, at least he’s helping out in other places.
Wally Szczerbiak
Richard Hamilton
I’ll group these two guys together since they are quite similar. Both have long had raps as “points only” guys, and it’s true that neither is averaging above 0.5 in steals or blocks. Wally is hitting on 1.6 3pg this season and Rip is hitting on a career high 0.7 himself, but to call them “points only” guys is just to be completely dismissive of percentages. Szczerbiak is shooting 51% on 14.5 attempts per game, which would be exceptional for a center, let alone a SF. His 87% from the line on 4.5 attempts is pretty great as well. Meanwhile Rip is shooting 50% on a whopping 17 attempts per game, while hitting 87% of his free throws on 5 attempts per game. Points only? What if instead of being great shooters they were completely slightly below league average shooters but averaged around 1.5 steals and blocks each? They’d be the darlings of the fantasy world, right?
Five for FG% Help
Tony Parker – An amazing competitive advantage for shooting that great from a PG; too bad he offsets much of it with his horrible FT%.
Eddy Curry – As long as he’s healthy.
Shawn Marion – This guy’s pretty good.
Richard Jefferson – A proven stud in this category.
David West – Pretty close to a double threat, as his FT% is decidedly above average as well.
Five for FT% Help
Chauncey Billups – The undisputed king.
Jerry Stackhouse – Even coming off the bench he gets to the line around 5 times per game and hits almost all of them.
Caron Butler – His best category, by far.
Corey Maggette – If he can ever get over those injuries…
Steve Nash – Took a hit in FG% this year, but still a pretty great double threat.