After all of the discussion about DM’s article last week on percentages, I thought I’d start off the week with a little bit of a closer look at how to successfully handle your free throw percentage.
First off, I want to throw in my two cents on why I think percentages are so often overlooked. Quite simply, to me, it’s just too tough to figure out a player’s true value in percentages. The easiest category to assess value is points. A point from a guard has the same value as a point from a forward or a center. Other categories are a little different in that you generally have to take into account a player’s position – a guard who averages one block per game is far more valuable than a center who averages one block. Similarly, a forward who hits 2 3’s a game has more value than a PG who does the same thing.
Percentages, though, require an even closer look to assess a player’s true value. Let’s say you’ve got a guy who shoots 78% from the line. That, really, means nothing to you as a fantasy player. First, you have to figure out what position he plays – if he’s a point guard, for example, that’s not too great – in fact, it’s below average (a “typical” point guard should shoot about 80% from the stripe). If the player is a center, that’s a really strong free throw shooter for his position (a “typical” center will shoot close to 70%).
Finally, after seeing what a player’s actual percentage is, and taking into account his position, you have to actually move in even closer and look at how many attempts the player gets per game. This is the step that many – if not most – fantasy players don’t take, and with good reason. I mean, even taking away the variable of the position, this is a nearly impossible situation to handle in your head. I mean, which PG helps more in free throws – one that hits 87% but only takes 2 per game, or one that hits 82% and takes 6 per game? Which center hurts more, one that shoots 58% but takes 3 per game, or one that hits 65% and takes 7 per?
Now, for sure, some of the various player raters out there will help take all of these factors into consideration, but right now I’d like to highlight a couple of categories of guys whose value may be misinterpreted by a lot of fantasy players.
Avoid Contact, Avoid Helping
The job of the guard in your FT% category is to make up for all the poor shooters in your front court. These guys shoot from the outside all game long, so a free throw is a gimme for most of them. However, if they’re not getting to the line, they’re not going to help you all that much. Here are some guys whose percentages are great but overvalued because of low attempts numbers
Steve Nash (93.7%, 4.1 FTA)
Luke Ridnour (90.7%, 2.9 FTA)
Jason Williams (89.5%, 1.4 FTA)
Michael Finley (86.7%, 1.5 FTA)
You’ll notice that I don’t put any bigs in this category, and that’s by design. If there’s a center out there who hits 80% of his free throws but only takes two per game, he’s helping you out extra by REPLACING a guy who could really hurt you. Just getting a guy who shoots really poorly out of your lineup has a bunch of value in itself.
Pump Up the Volume
Just because you’ve got a poor free throw shooter on your squad doesn’t mean you need to have a 90% free throw shooter to counteract them. A decent free throw shooter who gets to the line a lot will do the trick just as well. For example, let’s say you’ve got a guy who goes 2-3 from the line one night. You can get your FT% up to 80% two ways – with a guy who goes 2-2, or a guy who goes 6-7. Here’s three guys who are getting to the line often enough to turn their only-okay FT% into a major fantasy asset:
Kobe Bryant (81.5%, 11 FTA)
Paul Pierce (80.2%, 9.4 FTA)
Gilbert Arenas (80.9%, 9.2 FTA)
Worse Than You’d Feared
We know that big guys struggle from the line. It’s a fact of the basketball world. Guys who spend most of their time hanging around the basket and shooting from inside 5 feet just aren’t too good when they have to take a couple steps back and shoot a free throw. Even worse, they get to the line more because there’s more contact on the inside. Here are some guys whose FT% doesn’t look THAT terrible until you realize how often they get to the line:
Pau Gasol (68.2%, 7.8 FTA)
Andrei Kirilenko (66.1%, 7.3 FTA)*
Eddy Curry (64.6%, 7 FTA)
Tim Duncan (66.7%, 6.8 FTA)
* - this is unusually low for AK-47, and he should turn it around.
When No Offense is Good Offense
One of the greatest misconceptions with a lot of these big men – particularly those who specialize in boards and blocks – is that they can murder you in FT%. And to be sure, when they step to the line, all bets are off. But if they’re not on the line, they’re not going to hurt your FT% nearly as much as you think. For example:
Adonal Foyle (56.8%, 1.2 FTA)
Lorenzen Wright (53.1%, 1.5 FTA)
Michael Olowokandi (51.4%, 1.2 FTA)
Theo Ratliff (68.2%, 1.5 FTA)
See? It took me almost 1,000 words to better gauge the fantasy values of just a few guys. And even then, it’s not an exact science. I can’t tell you if Eddy Curry or Tim Duncan is worse – or if Jason Williams or Paul Pierce are more valuable from the stripe. The player raters are a good guide but they are by no means the final word. If you’ve got your own way of valuing FT%, we’d love to hear it. Hope this helps.