A few teams have experienced shakeups over the past week. Today let’s take a look at one of them.
We’ll start with the stud, Paul Pierce. He has more than proven himself as a first rounder this year, bouncing back from two down years to put up numbers matching his 2000-2003 peak. The most pleasant surprise has been his 48% shooting, and he’s one of the few players who is a plus in just about every single category. According the player rater, blocks is the only one where he’s not an asset, and even there his 0.4 per game isn’t horrible if you’re using him at shooting guard. While there’s no reason to expect any serious decline from Pierce, that 48% shooting might start to drop. It already has (after being around 49% over the first two months of the season he’s been closer to 46% in January), and the departure of Davis might not help. Pierce is now really the only person on his team who can create his own shot. This might put a bit more pressure on him, and his FG% was due to drop back to his career average anyway. There’s certainly no reason to panic; he’s still the unquestioned #1 option and should continue to be a top 10 player. Just be ready for a bit of a hit in FG%.
Wally Szczerbiak landed in a pretty good spot. It’s never a good thing when a player who is having a career season and is the clear #2 option on his team is shipped out of town, but there doesn’t seem to be too much reason why he shouldn’t be able to continue his strong play. He’ll be counted on to fill the scoring void left by Ricky Davis, and should slide into the #2 option behind Pierce. He’s already fitting in, starting and playing 41 minutes in yesterady’s loss against the Bucks. Although the youth movement is on in Boston, it shouldn’t affect Wally too much. He’s got enough time and money left on his contract that he’s going to be in Boston for the long haul, so the team will be best served figuring out how he fits in with all the kids. Owners of both Wally and Ricky caught a break with this deal; trades like this almost never work out so well for guys like this.
Now let’s get to the big men, since those are the folks that everyone seems to be the most excited about. Kendrick Perkins is starting to make a believer out of me – to a certain extent. He qualifies at center and is locked in as the starter there. That’s very good. He’s one of the top rate rebounders in the league and since he re-entered the starting lineup on January 13, he’s blocked at least two shots in 7 of 9 games. Perkins is no scorer, but since most of his shots come from within five feet of the basket, it’s helped keep his shooting percentage at 55%. He’s actually been closer to 62% over those last nine games, and even if he isn’t taking more than 7 shots per contest, that’s going to help you out a whole lot in that category. He’s obviously got value at the thin position, but it seems unlikely that he’ll regularly top the 35 minute mark. And that’s going to keep him from being too valuable. See, the thing with guys like this is that they are always so enticing because you pick them up for free and you think there’s nothing but upside. But I’m telling you, it’s going to be hard to win your league with Perkins as anything more than your #3 center. In a perfect situation, he’s the guy who you make up those extra games with, not the guy you are counting on every night. He’s part of a four-man rotation of bigs, as you’re kidding yourself if you think Doc Rivers will avoid the temptation to throw Michael Olowokandi out there eventually. Everyone’s saying the right things about him not taking away time from the young guys, but I’m not convinced. If Doc thinks Kandi can help, he’ll use him, because Doc is fighting for his job right now. He wants to develop young guys, but the most pressing issue is getting some Ws. While most of us know that Kandi on the court certainly doesn’t lead to Ws, most of us know more than Doc when it comes to coaching. Also, it should be pointed out that Olowokandi is in a contract year. His one good year ever came in a contract year. I’m not sure he can repeat that, and I’m not saying he’s going to have any value – he won’t. But if he can get 15-20 minutes per game, that’s going to be bad news for both Perkins and Al Jefferson.
Speaking of Al, players like Al Jefferson ruin fantasy squads. I’ve been saying something close to this for most of the season, and I’ll continue to say it. Yes, there’s every reason to expect he’s going to be a great player someday, and that day might be relatively soon. He might even be one of those guys who over the last month of the season is a legit every day starter. But let’s get back to the facts as they are right now. He’s coming off the bench. He commits more fouls per minute than just about anybody in the league. He goes through stretches of absolute ineffectiveness that render him completely inconsistent. Just when you think he’s got it going – like a three game stretch where he averaged 13 and 7 with 2 blocks a few weeks back – he’ll follow it with the 5 and 7.5 on 31% shooting over two games. He’s been solid the last couple of games, so you know what to expect now. Like Perkins, Jefferson is only valuable to your team if you don’t need him. Know what I’m saying? If you have a solid starting 10 (or however many) and one or two decent options off the bench, than Al is a fine guy to have around for that last spot. But if it gets to a point where you have choice but to plug him in the lineup, that’s bad news. It’s all part of my general skeptical attitude towards any player that hasn’t already proven himself. Upside is an overvalued commodity in most leagues worth playing in. As boring a player as P.J. Brown is, he’s still a better bet right now than Jefferson. One simple reason is that one of Jefferson’s best traits actually works against him in fantasy. He can get to the line, but he can’t make his shots from there. Those 4-for-7s really do hurt. I know I’m about the most anti-Al person around, but I’m just trying to help. It took me many years to get off the upside bandwagon. I’ve finally done it this year and I can tell you that at the very least it’s made for a far less frustrating fantasy season.
Who would you rather have right now, Al Jefferson or Robert Swift?