After all of the discussion about DM’s article last week on percentages, I thought I’d start off the week with a little bit of a closer look at how to successfully handle your free throw percentage.

First off, I want to throw in my two cents on why I think percentages are so often overlooked. Quite simply, to me, it’s just too tough to figure out a player’s true value in percentages. The easiest category to assess value is points. A point from a guard has the same value as a point from a forward or a center. Other categories are a little different in that you generally have to take into account a player’s position – a guard who averages one block per game is far more valuable than a center who averages one block. Similarly, a forward who hits 2 3’s a game has more value than a PG who does the same thing.

Percentages, though, require an even closer look to assess a player’s true value. Let’s say you’ve got a guy who shoots 78% from the line. That, really, means nothing to you as a fantasy player. First, you have to figure out what position he plays – if he’s a point guard, for example, that’s not too great – in fact, it’s below average (a “typical” point guard should shoot about 80% from the stripe). If the player is a center, that’s a really strong free throw shooter for his position (a “typical” center will shoot close to 70%).

Finally, after seeing what a player’s actual percentage is, and taking into account his position, you have to actually move in even closer and look at how many attempts the player gets per game. This is the step that many – if not most – fantasy players don’t take, and with good reason. I mean, even taking away the variable of the position, this is a nearly impossible situation to handle in your head. I mean, which PG helps more in free throws – one that hits 87% but only takes 2 per game, or one that hits 82% and takes 6 per game? Which center hurts more, one that shoots 58% but takes 3 per game, or one that hits 65% and takes 7 per?

Now, for sure, some of the various player raters out there will help take all of these factors into consideration, but right now I’d like to highlight a couple of categories of guys whose value may be misinterpreted by a lot of fantasy players.

Avoid Contact, Avoid Helping

The job of the guard in your FT% category is to make up for all the poor shooters in your front court. These guys shoot from the outside all game long, so a free throw is a gimme for most of them. However, if they’re not getting to the line, they’re not going to help you all that much. Here are some guys whose percentages are great but overvalued because of low attempts numbers

Steve Nash (93.7%, 4.1 FTA)
Luke Ridnour (90.7%, 2.9 FTA)
Jason Williams (89.5%, 1.4 FTA)
Michael Finley (86.7%, 1.5 FTA)

You’ll notice that I don’t put any bigs in this category, and that’s by design. If there’s a center out there who hits 80% of his free throws but only takes two per game, he’s helping you out extra by REPLACING a guy who could really hurt you. Just getting a guy who shoots really poorly out of your lineup has a bunch of value in itself.

Pump Up the Volume

Just because you’ve got a poor free throw shooter on your squad doesn’t mean you need to have a 90% free throw shooter to counteract them. A decent free throw shooter who gets to the line a lot will do the trick just as well. For example, let’s say you’ve got a guy who goes 2-3 from the line one night. You can get your FT% up to 80% two ways – with a guy who goes 2-2, or a guy who goes 6-7. Here’s three guys who are getting to the line often enough to turn their only-okay FT% into a major fantasy asset:

Kobe Bryant (81.5%, 11 FTA)
Paul Pierce (80.2%, 9.4 FTA)
Gilbert Arenas (80.9%, 9.2 FTA)

Worse Than You’d Feared

We know that big guys struggle from the line. It’s a fact of the basketball world. Guys who spend most of their time hanging around the basket and shooting from inside 5 feet just aren’t too good when they have to take a couple steps back and shoot a free throw. Even worse, they get to the line more because there’s more contact on the inside. Here are some guys whose FT% doesn’t look THAT terrible until you realize how often they get to the line:

Pau Gasol (68.2%, 7.8 FTA)
Andrei Kirilenko (66.1%, 7.3 FTA)*
Eddy Curry (64.6%, 7 FTA)
Tim Duncan (66.7%, 6.8 FTA)
* - this is unusually low for AK-47, and he should turn it around.

When No Offense is Good Offense

One of the greatest misconceptions with a lot of these big men – particularly those who specialize in boards and blocks – is that they can murder you in FT%. And to be sure, when they step to the line, all bets are off. But if they’re not on the line, they’re not going to hurt your FT% nearly as much as you think. For example:

Adonal Foyle (56.8%, 1.2 FTA)
Lorenzen Wright (53.1%, 1.5 FTA)
Michael Olowokandi (51.4%, 1.2 FTA)
Theo Ratliff (68.2%, 1.5 FTA)

See? It took me almost 1,000 words to better gauge the fantasy values of just a few guys. And even then, it’s not an exact science. I can’t tell you if Eddy Curry or Tim Duncan is worse – or if Jason Williams or Paul Pierce are more valuable from the stripe. The player raters are a good guide but they are by no means the final word. If you’ve got your own way of valuing FT%, we’d love to hear it. Hope this helps.

Thought I’d throw up a special weekend column, since I’m not sure I’ll have one for tomorrow since it’s a holiday and all. Before we get into the situations to pay attention to, I thought we should check in on some of the centers who recently won starting jobs and were popular pick ups over the past couple weeks. I expressed skepticism about all of them for various reasons, and for the most part it looks like it was pretty well-founded.

Francisco Elson: 7.8/6.7/0.6, 0.7 steals, 1.1 blocks, 55% (31-of-56), 28.9 mpg in 9 starts

Ike Diogu: 9.4/4.5/0.9, 0.1 steals, 0.6 blocks, 62% (28-of-45), 24.1 mpg in 8 starts

Eddie Griffin: 6.6/6.0/0.7, 0.4 steals, 2.6 blocks, 0.3 3s, 43% (24-of-56), 22.4 mpg in 9 starts

I know that centers are tough to come by in deep, two-center leagues, but there’s still just not a lot of value up there. Elson is the only one getting acceptable minutes, but even his 29 per game might be considered a disappointment considering that not just Marcus Camby, but also Kenyon Martin, has been out for the majority of those nine games. He’s doing about what I expected him to do – basically a Rasho Nesterovic impersonation – and while he’s not been an embarrassment, those who were hoping for 12 and 8 with close to 2 blocks per game just had unreasonable expectations. Diogu has proven to be a stud in FG%, but if he can’t be on the court enough to take even 6 shots per game, he won’t be able to help you all that much. He’s nowhere close to an asset in any other category. As for Griffin, have more typestrokes been unnecessarily wasted on a single player?

Three Situations to Pay Attention To
Los Angeles Lakers
After just writing about how much space has been wasted writing about Eddie Griffin, it seems pretty silly to follow that up by writing about Kwame Brown. As much as we want to call Griffin a disappointment and a tease, it doesn’t even begin to compare to Kwame. But there seems to be a recent shift in Kwame’s game and might be making him a more reliable – if one-dimensional – fantasy option. In his fifth season in the league, Kwame has shown an extremely limited offensive game. His touch around the basket hasn’t developed at all, and while his jumper looks decent at times, he’s never been able to hit it with any consistency. Phil Jackson seems to have realized that – and maybe Kwame has as well – and isn’t asking Kwame to score. Last night’s 18-point “breakout” game was the first time since Nov. 14 that Kwame attempted 10 shots in a game. He’s been recast as someone who’s main duty is to attack the boards, especially on the offensive end. Brown averaged 1.9 offensive boards per game in November, 2.5 per game in December, and is up to 3.3 per game so far in January. The fact that many of his shots are coming off these offensive rebounds is helping his FG%. In six games since re-entering the starting lineup, he’s shooting 54%. Here’s his overall line in those six starts:

8.8/8.2/1.0, 0 steals, 0.5 blocks, 54% (21-of-39)

It’s pretty comparable to most of those “hot” pickups listed above, but without that secondary category to help out in. Although Brown has no steals in those six games, that’s the one category he’s most likely to offer some help in. He averaged nearly a steal per game while seeing 30 mpg in 03-04, which is pretty decent for a big man. If he remains in the starting lineup he could average somewhere around 0.8 steals and blocks per game, which isn’t spectacular, but isn’t terrible. Expecting any consistency from Kwame is probably pretty foolish at this point. A game like last night’s is still the exception, not the rule. But if he can keep pounding the boards and converting some of those putbacks, he might be able to emerge as something better than just another Reggie Evans.

Indiana Pacers
Let’s take a look at Jeff Foster’s line so far in January:

7.3/9.4/0, 0.4 steals, 0.4 blocks, 61% (22-of-36)

Again, not too different from the lines of those Elson/Diogu/Griffin group. Foster is quite similar – and the exact opposite – of Kwame Brown. Like Brown, he seems to be a one-category helper who is pretty consistent in that one category, but doesn’t have much of a shot of helping out elsewhere. Unlike Kwame, Foster seems to be getting the most out of his talent while Brown is getting only a portion. Foster’s upside is extremely limited – he will not score, he will not get blocks. But if you want a boost in rebounds – and only rebounds – he is probably one of the best guys you can grab. I’m not at all a fan of one category specialists because they leave you with holes in too many other categories, but situations get dicey sometimes, especially at center. I thought I was in the perfect situation earlier this year with Yao Ming and Rasheed Wallace, with a very capable backup on the bench in Brendan Haywood. Then Yao went down and Haywood became completely ineffective right around the same time. I ended up dumping Haywood, because he just wasn’t worth using. Since I’m in a daily changes, cumulative roto league, I decided to simply take the beating at center and go way under my projected games limit rather than try my luck with the dregs available on the waiver wire. My strategy is to use quality games when you have them. Right now I have a lot of point guards playing well, so I’ll go over the projected pace there and make a trade from there at a later date, even if it means not getting the best return. But in weekly H2H leagues, this strategy doesn’t work. So guys like Foster might be the best option available. And if you’re strong in blocks thanks to non-centers like Andrei Kirilenko, Shawn Marion or Paul Gasol, Foster can at least give you the boards you need from a center. He’s averaging 9.9 rpg in his last seven contests, and that’s in just 24.4 mpg. With Jermaine O’Neal iffy, he might see even more time. Foster’s no savior, but at least you know what you’ll be getting.

Dallas Mavericks
Did someone in your league pick up DeSagana Diop yesterday? It happened in my league, and I’ll admit I was about to make the move myself and was beaten to the punch by about five minutes. I’m not going to lose too much sleep over it, but man, I sure could have used that help in blocks. There’s no denying that Diop is a blocks machine – he’s second in the league blocks per minute, averaging 2.0 bpg in just over 17 minutes, which is rather ridiculous. But the big question is this – even with his ascent to the starting lineup, how much more playing time will Diop actually receive? In last night’s game he saw just 20 minutes, although it’s hard to read too much into that since the game was over early and Adrian Griffin was the only player in the game to play more than 30 minutes. One of the many problems with Diop early in his career was his total lack of conditioning, and while he’s gotten better, it’s hard for someone to start consistently playing more than he ever has and to do it at a high level. This is Diop’s fifth season in the league and he’s played more than 30 minutes in a game a grand total of two times. This is one of the same arguments I made against Al Jefferson even after he joined the starting lineup and he hasn’t broken the 30-minute mark at all in 8 starts. Avery Johnson hasn’t given up on Erick Dampier yet, and this could be one of those old-fashioned “motivation” benchings, although it might take more than that to motivate a guy who’s going to get paid $53 million over the next five seasons no matter what.

Some people want to think of Diop as a poor man’s Ben Wallace, but a homeless, penniless Ben Wallace might be more like it. Like Wallace, Diop can help out in steals; he averages 1.3 steals per 40 over his career, which isn’t bad at all for a center. Unfortunately, he also shares Big Ben’s inability to put the ball in the basket. While he’s shooting 45% this season, he’s a career 37% shooter. And it would be a miracle if he could ever get his FT% up to 50%. While he won’t shoot nearly enough in either category to hurt you too much, it’s still worth noting. The Mavs are an extremely deep team. They don’t need to have a center out there at all times, as they can get by with Dirk Nowitzki at the five for stretches. The Mavs need Diop to be at his most energetic whenever he’s out there, so it’s probably not in their best interests to have him out there for 32-35 mpg. Grab him, stash him, start him if you need him, but if there’s one lesson that his column should make you realize, it’s that finding serious help at center on the waiver wire is almost always more fantasy than reality.

Comet Gain
Chris Kaman – Wow. Just, wow. Not only a top center, but a dominant overall force the past couple weeks. Might not last when Elton Brand returns, but he’s looking more and more like a legit #1 center.

Samuel Dalembert – Like Kaman, not just a top center lately, but an absolutely dominant force. He’s not missing – including from the line – and he’s swatting away everything in sight (which unfortunately for the 76ers means many obvious goaltends). His 37 mpg so far in January is huge for a center.

Ben Wallace – The old Big Ben is back; 13.8 boards and 2.7 blocks so far in January. Now about that 29% from the free throw line in that span…

The Hold Steady
Rasheed Wallace – Has slowed down a bit, his rebounding leaves a lot to be desired from a C, but he’ll keep raining in those 3s and getting the blocks.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas – He’s staying healthy, he’s hitting his shots, and is more than respectable on the boards and in blocks. A steadying force in the middle.

Brad Miller – A couple of down games recently, but he’s still one of the top 30 or so fantasy players in the league.

The Fall
Shaquille O’Neal – You knew you were punting free throws; but 15/10 with just 1 block per game in January leaves a lot to be desired.

Brendan Haywood – Back in the starting lineup after a two-game absence, but still too inconsistent to be counted on.

Joel Przybilla – Nothing more than a blocks specialist now that Theo Ratliff is on a run of good health.

I’ll do my very best to answer any relevant big man questions in the comments here, so feel free to ask away on guys not mentioned (or mentioned) here.

Most teams have busy schedules this week. Let’s take a look at some recent trends and discuss what’s on tap for 1/16-1/22.

Four Games: Philadelphia, Washington, New Orleans, Minnesota, Houston, Denver, Indiana, Boston, Utah, San Antonio, Milwaukee, Charlotte, Chicago, New York, New Jersey, Detroit, LAC, LAL, Memphis, Dallas, Toronto, Phoenix, Sacramento.
Three Games: Seattle, Miami, Atlanta, Golden State, Cleveland, Orlando.
Two Games: Portland

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Chris Kaman, C – Our second favorite ugly-man in the NBA (after Wizards’ starting center Calvin Booth of course) has been on a tear the last couple weeks. He’s playing 36 minutes a night over his last seven games and putting up pretty sick numbers: 17/12/2, with ridiculous percentages (59%FG and 91%FT) and swatting over 2 shots per game to boot. This year is indeed turning out to be Kaman’s breakout season. His stellar play makes him a great start this coming week with four games and fellow big man Elton Brand nursing a sore hip.

Ben Gordon, SG – The former UConn star is Chicago’s leading scorer with 14.4 ppg, so what took so long for coach Scott Skiles to get him in the starting lineup? Well, now that Chris Duhon has been relegated to backing up Kirk Hinrich at the point, the door is wide open for Gordon to really start lightin’ it up. The sharpshooter will be a much better fit alongside Hinrich and should see his numbers go up across the board with more consistent playing time. Gordon’s stats this month (20/2/3, 49%FG, 92%FT, and 13/27 from long range) give you an indication of what’s to come. Plug him in with confidence this week.

Manu Ginobili, SG – Its hard to recommend starting someone currently coming off the bench for his team, but Manu is being eased back into the Spurs rotation and has responded very well since returning from injury shortly after Christmas. Over his last six games Ginobili is averaging 18/3/3, shooting 51%FG and 77%FT, while adding one trey and 2.2 steals, all in just 25 mpg off the bench. Look for the Argentinean’s minutes to continue to climb as he eventually works his way back into Greg Popovich’s starting lineup. In the meantime, it’s safe to put him back in your lineups especially with a full schedule next week.

Danny Granger, F – Many of us have been waiting to see what kind of impact the 17th overall pick out of New Mexico would have with loony Ron Artest on the bench. Granger has shown some promise this month, averaging 12/6/2 with 2 stls, 0.8 blks, and hitting 4 for 10 from downtown. The rookie’s playing time has increased significantly every month jumping from 12.9 to 21.5 to 30.5 mpg from Nov-Jan. Granger is a versatile forward similar to Atlanta’s Josh Childress and definitely has fantasy value as long as he’s got a starting gig. Keep it up Danny boy.

Earl Boykins, PG – Boykins has 25 career blocked shots. How in the world does a man shorter than my mom block a shot in the NBA?? Anyways, Denver’s 5’5 reserve PG is putting up a career-high 14 points per game despite sharing time with Andre Miller and fellow backup Earl Watson. Take a look at his New Year averages: 22/2/5, 48%FG, 97%FT, 2.3 threes, and 1 steal per game. The diminutive Boykins can run between defenders’ legs and hide behind teammates when on the court, giving him a distinct advantage over taller point guards. All jokes aside, now is the time to play Earl while he is hitting 54% from long range and providing that energy off the bench.

Mike Miller, G/F – So he’s an injury prone, on-again/off-again starter, but he’s still got game (especially for a white boy from South Dakota). Miller recorded his first career triple-double (21/10/10) the other night against Sacramento and figures to be in line for more minutes after such a performance. He provides good value in scoring, rebounding and threes, and also makes solid contributions in percentages. You might as well get him in your lineups and hope that he continues his hot streak. He’ll probably drop another triple-double when he visits the Wizards in DC next Sunday.

A few weeks ago BV touched upon some players who were double threats in the two defensive categories — steals and blocks – and who might be overlooked since they contribute in the “forgotten” categories. If you ask me, though, at least with serious fantasy basketball players, steals and blocks aren’t really ignored. I mean, Andrei Kirilenko is a golden god in fantasy circles. No, if you ask me the real ignored categories are the percentages. I am – or at least was – as guilty of this as anyone. I became enamored with guys who would get me big 3s, steals and blocks – the Baron Davises and Josh Smiths of the worlds – and would always end up fighting to stay in the middle of the pack in percentages. But this year I made a concerted effort not to ignore the percentages, specifically by drafting high percentage big men with my first couple of picks and scooped up Rip Hamilton later on. There’s almost a sort of “Moneyball” scenario at work here. For a long time, it was steals and blocks that were often undervalued, making guys who excelled in those categories more valuable than they were perceived. But then people caught on to that value and guys like Eddie Griffin, Josh Smith, etc. went from being sleepers to guys drafted before established veterans. The market shifted. Percentages became the new place to find value. It’s just like how everyone thought that Billy Beane and the Athletics (sorry to get all baseball on you for a moment) only went after players who were high OBP guys. That wasn’t necessarily the case, that was just where the best market value lied. After other teams caught on to the fact that OBP was a valuable commodity, the market evened out and those players didn’t come at bargains, so Beane and the A’s had to look for different ways to find an edge, moving to defensive statistics and other shit that guys with Ivy league educations can figure out. And I feel like that’s the shift we’ve seen from 3s/steals/blocks to percentages, at least in very competitive fantasy basketball leagues. So with that said, lets look at some of the players who are best at getting the ball into the basket the majority of the time. This isn’t a definitive list, by any means, just calling out a few folks.

Chris Bosh
Some people might be a bit disappointed with Bosh this year. Yes, he’s upped his scoring dramatically, but he hasn’t emerged into a shot blocking force, down to 1.2 bpg from last year’s 1.4, and his steals have remained below 1 per game. But Bosh has become arguably the most dominant percentage player in the league this season, making him a borderline first-round value. Bosh shot 47% last year, which is very good, if not exactly dominant for PF/C. But this year he has taken it to a new level. He’s attempting 15.7 shots per game (up 3.3 from last year) and is connecting on nearly 51% of his shots. Percentages are easy to ignore because they are hard to compute value. Everything else is a counting stat – two steals is two steals, 13 rebounds is 13 rebounds – but 51% shooting isn’t always equal. In fact, it rarely is. You’ve got to consider volume, and there’s no easy way to account for it. I like and trust ESPN’s player rater. According to that, Bosh’s 51% shooting on 15.7 shots per game is exactly as valuable as LeBron James’s 1.7 steals per game. Bosh also gets major points for upping his FT% to 81% and for getting to the line just over eight times per game. Having a center who can actually help you in FT% is a major boost. Bosh is clearly a stud, and if he can ever get those blocks around 2 per game, he’ll be a no-brainer first rounder for many years to come.

Yao Ming
Even without taking into account his current injury, Bosh has actually surpassed Yao. But the two players are quite similar. Yao’s lack of blocks this year was surely disappointing, as he got up to 2.0 last year before dropping down to 1.4 before going down with a toe injury. His FG% was down to 51% this year after reaching 55% last year, but on two more shots per game this year, he still has plenty of value there. His 84% free throw shooting on 6.4 attempts per game is also plenty valuable.

Brad Miller
Everyone loves to talk about Miller’s prowess in assists, and he’s certainly a huge contributor there. But when you break down the numbers, he’s almost just as valuable in FG% and FT%. Miller is shooting 51% on the season, and has been around that number for his entire time in Sacramento, so he’s a pretty proven commodity there. Even though he’s attempting just four free throws per game this year – his lowest since the 00-01 season – he’s connecting at a career high rate of 85%. While his 0.5 blocks (compared to 1.2 per game the last two seasons) is pretty unforgivable for a center, at least he’s helping out in other places.

Wally Szczerbiak
Richard Hamilton
I’ll group these two guys together since they are quite similar. Both have long had raps as “points only” guys, and it’s true that neither is averaging above 0.5 in steals or blocks. Wally is hitting on 1.6 3pg this season and Rip is hitting on a career high 0.7 himself, but to call them “points only” guys is just to be completely dismissive of percentages. Szczerbiak is shooting 51% on 14.5 attempts per game, which would be exceptional for a center, let alone a SF. His 87% from the line on 4.5 attempts is pretty great as well. Meanwhile Rip is shooting 50% on a whopping 17 attempts per game, while hitting 87% of his free throws on 5 attempts per game. Points only? What if instead of being great shooters they were completely slightly below league average shooters but averaged around 1.5 steals and blocks each? They’d be the darlings of the fantasy world, right?

Five for FG% Help
Tony Parker – An amazing competitive advantage for shooting that great from a PG; too bad he offsets much of it with his horrible FT%.
Eddy Curry – As long as he’s healthy.
Shawn Marion – This guy’s pretty good.
Richard Jefferson – A proven stud in this category.
David West – Pretty close to a double threat, as his FT% is decidedly above average as well.

Five for FT% Help
Chauncey Billups – The undisputed king.
Jerry Stackhouse – Even coming off the bench he gets to the line around 5 times per game and hits almost all of them.
Caron Butler – His best category, by far.
Corey Maggette – If he can ever get over those injuries…
Steve Nash – Took a hit in FG% this year, but still a pretty great double threat.

Here we go, another mailbag. A couple interesting questions, so let’s get to it …

Q: Excluding injuries, your pick for the player who has most underperformed this year based on his average draft position?

A: Here at FBB, one of the things we put a lot of emphasis on going in to the draft is consistency. We’re not alone in this – most of the highest-drafted players are drafted where they are because of their proven track record. Looking at ESPN’s average draft picks, all of the first rounders, other than those who’ve been suffering from injuries, are performing at or near their historic levels. In the second round, though, we do have a couple of disappointing point guards in Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis, who are both really struggling this year. Marbury as taken hits across the board, though the biggest drop has been in 3 pointers, where he’s dropped from a career average of 1.2 to a near-useless 0.3, shooting only 20% from the arc. Francis, meanwhile, is posting career-lows in threes, rebounds and assists, and will have to really improve in the second half of the year in order to be picked before the third round next October.

Another problem pick has been Larry Hughes, who was really underperforming even before he went down with his broken finger. We knew his scoring and assists would be down, but the drop in boards was unexpected, and the steals – where he really got the majority of his value last year – were cut nearly in half. He’s no better than a fifth or sixth rounder next year, while he was typically drafted in the third or fourth round this year.

Q: Which one of these injured players do you guys think will be the mostworth owning in the long run this year: Larry Hughes, Bonzi Wells, Carlos Boozer or Darius Miles?

A: An interesting question. Without an IL, many fantasy players are struggling with how to handle long-term injuries like those belonging to these guys. It’s new to us, too, and so much of this depends on how you’ve managed your roster – do you have room on your bench to stash one of these guys or not? That’s what really determines their value to your team. So I’m going to approach this as though you’ve got all four of these guys sitting on your waiver wire (not gonna happen, I know) and you’ve only got room to pick up one of ‘em. Here’s how I’d rank them:

1. Carlos Boozer: He’s rumored to be back in the two weeks, and while we don’t believe that’s really the case, it’s significantly shorter than any of these other guys. We really dislike Boozer, and not just because he’s a Dukie – he’s a 3-category contributor and appears to be allergic to blocking shots. Still, if he’s playing, he’ll have more value than the others.

2. Larry Hughes – He’s got the longest stated return time (eight weeks), but is also probably the best fantasy player out of this group. Plus, a broken finger isn’t something likely to suffer a setback.

3. Darius Miles – Miles was 15 games into a career year before being sidelined by knee surgery. Miles derives most of his value – both in real life and in fantasy – from his athleticism, and knee surgery is not a good sign. Still, he could be back in late February, and you can’t count him out yet.

4. Bonzi Wells – He tore his groin. That can’t be pleasant. He hasn’t run since the injury, and his return date keeps getting set back, and none of this sounds very good. I think Sacramento isn’t giving any news because there isn’t any good news to give. I’d avoid Bonzi until you hear something promising.

Q: How are YOUR fantasy squads doing?

A: Thanks for asking! We play in a very competitive 12-team rotisserie league. As you may recall, we reviewed our drafts back at the end of October. Neither of us have made very substantial moves yet (nor very many – we each have under 10 transactions), but here’s how we stand.

My team is languishing in fourth place, with my biggest problems being the PG categories – FT%, assists, and steals. This is despite the fact that I’m starting three point guards (Marbury, Chauncey Billups and Jason Terry) every night! Still, I’m very solid at C with Tim Duncan and Sam Dalembert, and I’ve been pretty pleased with my Warriors, Jason Richardson and Troy Murphy. I’ve got a couple of guys who are tough to play – Kenyon Martin and Charlie Villanueva – but I’m still holding out hope for them.

DM, meanwhile, has managed to cheat his way into second place. He got one of the nicest surprises of the year in Rasheed Wallace, and has gotten great contributions from late round picks like Eddie Jones and Brevin Knight. Oh yeah, and he’s got Dirk Nowitzki, too, which doesn’t hurt. He’s held his position well despite the injury to Yao Ming, and if our league leader didn’t commit highway robbery on a trade and waive pickup earlier, DM would be right on his tail.

I think this might be the shortest ATPGT yet. I blame it on my being on verge of vomiting for the past few hours. Not just due to last night’s Wizards game, even. BV’s got a mailbag coming up tomorrow, so that’s going to be pretty damn exciting.

Three Situations to Pay Attention To

New Orleans
Perhaps some good will come of Chris Paul’s injury. The rookie wall is sometimes more myth than reality (check out the splits for Emeka Okafor and Dwight Howard last year), but with a small point guard, it’s reasonable to expect that Paul wasn’t going to keep up his insane pace. So now he gets a few weeks off and hopefully will be refreshed and ready to keep up his ROY pace when he comes back from his thumb injury. In the meantime, Speedy Claxton belongs in just about all lineups while Paul is out. This is the classic fill-in point guard situation. Claxton is already a semi-viable fantasy option in deep leagues; he currently sits at #96 on the player rater, mostly due to his steals and the fact that he’s stayed relatively healthy this year. It should be noted that Claxton is one of those guys that’s perpetually banged up. He hasn’t topped 62 games in the last three seasons, and he’s fighting through a finger injury now. So there’s always a chance that he’ll go down. But you have to take your chances. There’s a big difference between 25 minutes and 35 minutes, and that’s roughly the bump that Claxton should get, maybe a little less. Claxton is a legit steals machine – he’s top 10 in the league in steals per minute this year and was right there last year, too. He didn’t start the Hornets’ last game against the Hawks (coach Byron Scott says he’ll be in there starting tonight), but he still managed to get 32 minutes and grabbed 4 steals in that time. Claxton’s an extremely aggressive player who loves to get to the basket, and he’s done that better than ever this year, averaging 5.1 free throw attempts in just 28 mpg. He attempted 13 free throws in that game against the Hawks and should continue to get to the line plenty. Think of Claxton as Brevin Knight but with more points and fewer assists. Like Knight, the three-pointer is not part of Claxton’s arsenal, as he has just 10 this season. But like Knight, he can single-handedly shoot you up the standings in steals with a solid 10 days or so. As PR said in his column yesterday, get him in your lineup.

Portland
Sebastian Telfair returned after a 12-game absence and picked up right where he left off, with a 3-point, 3-assist, 2-turnover, 1-of-7 shooting performance. Well, perhaps that’s a little mean, he is at 10.5 points and 4.2 assists on the season. With the extinction of the IL, Telfair is most likely available in your league, as it’s doubtful many owners wanted to waste a roster space on him while he was out, if he was even on a roster at that time. FBB all-time favorite Steve Blake didn’t embarrass himself while taking over the reigns during Telfair’s absence (9.4/3.1/5.3 with 0.9 3s and a mighty impressive 4.3:1 assist/turnover ratio), but he didn’t exactly light the world on fire or change the perception that he’s no more than a long-term backup. So is Telfair, a much-hyped lottery pick just a year ago, worth your time? Probably not. There are three major factors working against Telfair, and that’s never good. Factor #1 is that Blake and Jarrett Jack are still around and will get their PT. Jack has been far from spectacular, but has shown that he belongs in the NBA and has a nice 2.6:1 assist/turnover ratio. The Blazers don’t have a lot of talent, but all three out of Telfair, Blake and Jack are clearly best suited at point guard. Telfair saw only 35+ minutes in five games so far this year and that’s not good because … Factor #2 is that Telfair doesn’t have a broad enough skill set to put up big numbers without big minutes. He’s shown a better outside shot this season, averaging just over 1 3pg, which isn’t bad. But he is a huge liability at steals for a point guard and is one of the worst rate rebounders in the league. Not to mention the fact that it will be a miracle if he can shoot 40% on the season. The final factor working against Telfair is that Portland … well, Gary Payton said it best to Ruben Patterson on Sunday night “You guys suck. You all bad, Ruben.” The Blazers are a terrible basketball team right now. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them shift lineups the entire season, with guys constantly switching roles. This is a situation that’s best to avoid.

Orlando
Regular readers of FBB know that Jameer Nelson is one of my favorite players. At the beginning of the season he was buried on the depth chart, the second guard off the bench for the Magic, but I still couldn’t rank him lower than #114 in our preseason rankings because he’s just got too much talent on a team with not that much of it. Everyone knows that he’s been lighting it up off the bench lately and now finds himself in the starting lineup. There’s a reason PR started his column yesterday with Jameer; the guy is just a fantasy stud when given the time. So now he’s in the starting lineup for the time being while Grant Hill recovers from his latest malady. But perhaps it will be more than just for the time being. Who knows if – or even when – Hill will return. They say it might be as soon as Friday, but even if that does happen, another injury might be right around the corner. It’s a good sign that while Hedo Turkoglu got the starting nod when Hill was out earlier in the year, Nelson gets the call now. It makes plenty of sense because Nelson has arguably been the Magic’s second best player this year, with only Dwight Howard being clearly better. If you put any stock into John Hollinger’s PER stat, Nelson and Steve Francis have been basically the equal this season. One thing working against Nelson is that he’s so great late in games – almost half of his points have come in the closing quarter – that Brian Hill might opt to keep him coming off the bench if he can, to keep him fresh for the end of games. As I’ve said before, this is never a tactic I’ve understood. If it was working with great success then maybe, but the Magic are 13-18. They need to worry about the first three quarters, too. It should be noted that Nelson is much less attractive in leagues that count turnovers. He’s averaging 2.4 in just 26.5 mpg so far, and since he’s another one of those SG in a PG body, he doesn’t have the assists to necessarily offset those. As a refresher, his numbers in 21 games as a starter last year – 15.7/4.7/5.2 with 1.1 3s and 1.7 steals. To me – and probably to lots of you – the Magic would seem best off starting Nelson and Francis even when Hill was healthy and moving DeShawn Stevenson to tbe bench. The return of Keyon Dooling might be a bit of a buzzkill for Nelson, but – and perhaps this is foolish of me – I’d like to think that talent will win out. Some people might say, “Well, look how that’s worked out for guys like Eddie Griffin and Al Jefferson.” But the thing is, those guys just aren’t very good (yet). Nelson’s a pretty proven commodity at this point. Worst case scenario, Nelson seems to be in the same boat as Mo Williams as a guy who can still have value coming off the bench and is next in line for a starting job if any one of three (rather fragile) guys go down.

Comet Gain
Steve Nash – The man is just amazing; a mind-boggling 20.8 ppg (on 52% shooting) and 13.5 apg in his last eight games. He might actually deserve the MVP this season.

Jason Kidd – He deserves to be here two weeks in a row. Yet another data point for not selling low on established stars; having his best shooting season since 98-99, and all the other numbers are right where they should be.

Rafer Alston – One absolute stinker against his old nemesis Sam Mitchell, but otherwise has been playing like the 5th/6th round pick most were expecting since his return. McGrady’s absence should mean continued chance to shine.

Kirk Hinrich – As expected, he has bounced back, and in a big way; Duhon’s demotion to the bench should be good news for his assists.

Earl Boykins – Little(st) man has been huge lately with 18.5/1.5/3.3 and 2.0 3s over his last six. He needs to keep hitting those 3s to maintain his value.

The Hold Steady
Stephon Marbury – The Knicks have won three in a row and Steph has gone for 23.7/2.7/12.0 (!!) with 2.0 steals in those games. Still wish he’d bring those percentages up to last year’s levels, and you never know when it will all go sour again in the Big Apple.

Tony Parker – He – and all other FG% studs – are sorely undervalued by Yahoo’s ranking system; has been one of the most consistent players around this season.

Allen Iverson – Huge game last night was nice to see; shooting has been shakier lately and if Webber misses more time you sort of feel one of those 40% shooting on 28 shots per game stretches coming on.

Bobby Jackson – His line of 12.3/4.7/2.7 with 2.0 3s and 0.7 steals are just about exactly what we were expecting in place of Stoudamire. Nothing great, but still useful.

Tyronn Lue – Continues to defy the odds and offer value to those in deep leagues; starting and getting 5 to 7 extra minutes would make so much difference.

The Fall
Chris Duhon – Had started 101 straight games that he appeared in before hitting the bench last week; now he’ll be too inconsistent to count on.

Baron Davis – Still a stud, but shooting is as bad as ever and he’s getting banged up.

Raymond Felton – Bottom line is that his 31% shooting just does not make up for the steals and assists he offers, even if he starts while Rush takes time off.

Mo Williams – Had a disappointing run filling in for T.J. Ford, shooting just 36% over his last four games; with Ford back he should return to being started in just deep leagues.

Damon Jones – Absolutely pitiful in Hughes’s absence so far, but he’s still capable of throwing in 14 3s over a three-game span.

(Editor’s note: Here at fantasy basketblog headquarters, when you talk, we listen. Apparently a lot of you are in head-to-head leagues, something that DM and I are fairly unfamiliar with. So, we’ve enlisted the help of a new fantasy basketblogger, one who’s experienced in head-to-head leagues, to check in every Monday with tips so that you can set your lineups for the coming week. Let’s all give a warm round of applause to new FBB contributor PR! Don’t worry - DM’s weekly point guard novella will be moved to later in the week. Without any further ado, here’s the first edition of “Head-to-Head’s Up.” Enjoy! - BV)

First of all, I’d like to thank DM and BV for the invitation to contribute a weekly H2H column to their exceptional FantasyBasketBlog. A long time reader, I am now honored to be a contributor at FBB. I apologize to those of you who were looking forward to reading DM’s “As the Point Guard Turns” today, but I’ll do my best to entertain/educate/inspire you in my own way. Also, feel free to visit my Sports Troopers blog whenever you get a chance. This column should help those of you in H2H leagues plan ahead and set your weekly lineups based on recent trends and upcoming games. We all know the importance of consistent minutes when assessing a player’s fantasy value, so in H2H leagues the most important factor to consider is games played on a week-to-week basis. So let’s take a look at how often each NBA team will hit the hardwood this week (1/9-1/15):

Four Games: Seattle, Indiana, Washington, LAL, Atlanta, New York, Sacramento, Orlando, Cleveland, Charlotte, Milwaukee.

Three Games: Utah, Dallas, Toronto, Philadelphia, Boston, Chicago, Houston, Minnesota, Detroit, New Jersey, Phoenix, Memphis, New Orleans, San Antonio, Denver, Miami, Portland, Golden State.

Two Games: LAC
I’m not suggesting you should bench Elton Brand, but you may have better options than Sam Cassell and Cuttino Mobley this week.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Jameer Nelson, PG - The second-year guard from St. Joe’s has been showing why he deserves more playing time for the Magic lately. He’s averaging 31mpg over his last 5 games: 22 pts/3.4 rb/5.6 ast, 1.6 threes, 1.6 steals, and 59% shooting from the field. With Grant Hill sidelined Saturday, Stevie Franchise was moved to SG and Nelson got his fourth start of the season. Don’t be surprised if Coach Brian Hill keeps him in the starting lineup even when Hill returns, with SG Deshawn Stevenson possibly coming off the bench instead. He’s a great fantasy play right now while he’s hot and getting consistent playing time. He also has good matchups, facing some soft defenses this week: @LAC (97.0ppg), @SEA (104.7), @POR(95.0), @SAC (100.7).

Kenny Thomas, PF – Thomas was an excellent pickup last week with starting PF Shareef Abdur-Rahim out 6-8 weeks (broken jaw). Kenny may be undersized at 6’7, but he has displayed great rebounding prowess over his career. He should give you nearly 15 pts and 10 boards a night while Shareef is out and is a must-start with four games this week.

Vladimir Radmanovic, PF – Radmanovic was inserted into the Sonics starting lineup when Coach Bob Hill took over last week, was unspectacular in his first two starts, but delivered the goods on Sunday. RadMan shot 10 for 12 from the field including a whopping 8 three-pointers on his way to dropping 30 pts on the Knicks yesterday. As DM mentioned, Radmanovic is a talented/streaky shooter, but he definitely has value now with starter’s minutes. The 6’10 Bosnian sharpshooter has the potential to become a Dirk Nowitzki-type PF down the road as he develops physically and mentally, but for now you’ll just have to be satisfied with his scoring and three-point contributions. Vlad makes a solid start this week as he has four games to get comfortable in his new starting role.

Donyell Marshall, F – The versatile Cavs’ forward is another one of those players with the potential to be a fantasy stud when given enough playing time. Marshall has yet to start a game for Cleveland this year, but has put up respectable fantasy numbers coming off the bench with 10.4/7.4/0.9 and 2 threes, a block and a steal per game. Starter Larry Hughes is out now for 6-8 weeks with a broken finger and Donyell should benefit from a bump in minutes. The Ludacris look-alike is a smart start in your H2H league this week.

Speedy Claxton, PG – Did you know his first name is really Craig? Rookie sensation Chris Paul is expected to miss a week or two with a thumb injury, and Speedy dropped 29 points on Saturday in his first game out. So Claxton should be that much more valuable to your fantasy squad in Paul’s absence. Get him in your lineups this week for three games.

Emeka Okafor, F/C – Last year’s ROY has missed the last 8 games with a badly sprained ankle but is expected to return to Charlotte’s depleted frontcourt on Tuesday. Don’t hesitate to plug him back into your SLU.

Rafer Alston, PG - After a slow start to the season and over a month lost to injury, Alston is back and playing his best ball of the season. Since returning New Year’s Eve, Rafer has posted averages of 15/4/8.5 along with over 2 treys and 2 steals per game in 2006. Alston doesn’t like hearing all the talk about Toronto faring better after dealing him for Mike James, so he is out to prove his critics wrong the rest of the season. He should be a regular fixture in your fantasy lineup.

Thanks for reading, and I’ll see you all next week. -PR

Before we get started, I’m not going to sit here and pretend that my eyes will be focused solely on basketball this weekend. My Washington Redskins are returning to the playoffs for the first time in a bazillion years, so my attention will not be on the NBA all weekend long. Let’s go Redskins.

Also, we have received some calls recently for another mailbag – so if you’ve got some questions, fire away at fantasybasketblogATgmail.com. We’ll try and sort through the fun next week.

Okay then! On with the preview. All season we’d been amazed at how well Chris Webber had been playing. But an injury was bound to happen, and last night it did. He missed a game with a sore back, and apparently it had been hurting him for awhile. He’s also dealing with a sore wrist, and if there’s anybody who can be counted on to miss some time, it’s Webber. I don’t need to go through his injury history, but needless to say, he’s not going to play 80 games this year.

On top of Webber being Webber, Allen Iverson left Wednesday’s game against the Suns with a bum ankle and is a question mark going in to Friday’s game against the Lakers. It’s the only game the Sixers play all weekend, but if both Webber and AI are out, that’s 52.9 ppg sitting on the bench for Philly, and it’s going to be a great chance to see some role players showcase what they can do. Now I’m not saying that any of these players are going to have any real value going forward, but it’s always fun to see some guys take the lead that you don’t often see handling the rock much, and should Webber or AI miss significant time, these guys could all be worth considering:

Shavlik Randolph, PF – Randolph, an undrafted rookie out of Duke (yeah, I thought all Duke players got drafted, too), has shown a terrific knack for grabbing rebounds. Over 40 minutes, he grabs almost 13 rebounds, while chipping in almost 12 points, 1.6 steals and .8 blocks. Given the minutes, he could be – at worst – a Reggie Evans clone.

John Salmons, G/F – Salmons is in his fourth year with the Sixers and has found a nice niche as an off-the-bench slasher. He’s a poor shooter, but given starter’s minutes he’s capable of being a doesn’t-hurt-your team kind of player, contributing in points, boards, assists, steals, and threes.

Lee Nailon, F – Nailon has been on seven different teams in his six years in the league, and will really only help you in points and FG%. He peaked out last year in New Orleans at 14.2/4.4 in 30 minutes. I’d have to see him do something pretty special to consider picking him up at any point in the future.

Again, we’re not recommending that you pick these guys up, or even put them on the radar screen. This is more for your long-term benefit, so that if, say, Shavlik Randolph is in line for some major minutes later this year or even next year, you’ll know how to value him.
Game of the Week(end)

Utah Jazz at Detroit Pistons, Sat. 1/7, 7:30PM EST

After all the talk regarding defensive stats on Wednesday, how about a game that features three of the biggest contributors to defensive stats in the league? The rejuvenated Andrei Kirilenko will be facing off against the defensive duo of Ben and Rasheed Wallace. All of these guys are averaging over 1.5 blocks and 1.5 steals, so this will be a fun chance to watch all of them on the court at the same time. Meanwhile, the Utah PG position – which DM talked about on Monday – is still in flux, with Keith McLeod as the new starter and rookie Deron Williams still struggling. With Jerry Sloan running things, you’ll never learn much from one game, but you’ll still get a peek at how each is performing in their new roles.

First off, did we wish everyone a happy new year? I’m not sure we did. If we didn’t, then happy new year. If we did, well then really – happy new year. Thanks for reading and thanks for all of your comments. And thanks to all of you who respond to other people’s comments, creating some nice dialogue. We like that. We can’t respond to every single comment – it may shock you to realize that we actually have other things to do in life than obsess over fantasy basketball, such as making sure our bosses aren’t looking when we are writing about fantasy basketball – so thanks to you who pick up the slack for us. If you’re smart enough to be reading FBB in the first place, you’re probably someone who can be trusted. That’s how I feel.

So the Sonics fired Bob Weiss and handed the reigns over to Bob Hill. Not too surprising, given the Sonics disappointing record this year and the fact that due to their crappy division, a quick turnaround would put them right at the top. Hill really put his stamp on the team from the beginning, making lots of lineup changes, with only Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis being holdovers from the last lineup that Weiss threw out there. (Theire values won’t change, by the way. Both will continue to be all-out studs as long as they are healthy.) Hill called a timeout just 90 seconds into the game, ran the players through an intense “off day” practice on a game day – he’s making this team his own. So this means we might have some changes on the fantasy landscape. So while everyone else was watching USC/Texas (don’t worry, I saw the last quarter and a half – the only college football I watched all year), I was watching the enthralling matchup of the 12-18 Bulls vs. the 13-17 Sonics.

It’s never the best idea to look too much into one game, and there are lots of reasons why that’s extra true here. First off, the Sonics were playing an extremely small Bulls team that was made even smaller due to the absence of Tyson Chandler. And secondly, the Sonics finished the game without Allen, who got elbowed in the eye and was held to 28 minutes. So that means there were more minutes to go around.

We’ll start with the bad news. Reggie Evans – who started 79 games last year and 23 of 30 this year, and played some of his best ball in December, averaging 8.7 points and 8.6 boards on 56% shooting – was a DNP-CD. He seems to be out of Hill’s plans completely. The Sonics announcers were saying that it was because he didn’t draw double teams and it made the offense stagnant, and that with Vladimir Radmanovic on the floor it would open things up more. Could be. We’ll see. Evans was never the best fantasy option since all he could be counted on for was rebounds, but he’s not even worth stashing on your bench at this point. Cut bait. Same goes for Damien Wilkins, who was a pretty popular pick up just a few days ago. Done for. Useless. Cut him. Nothing else to say there.

The hot pickup yesterday was Vladimir Radmanovic. He’s always been one of those tantalizing talents that has never gotten the full opportunity to show what he can do, but at the same time has never really proven he deserves that opportunity. This is his fifth season and we’re still waiting for him to break out. He’s a tough fit because he’s 6’10”, which means he should probably be a PF, but is really more suited for a SF. He has yet to show any real discernable skill besides a supersweet stroke from long range, but that plus minutes is enough to make him a fantasy asset, and last night’s game was a pretty good microcosm of that. Radmanovic did indeed replace Evans in the starting lineup and was given free reign to fire away. He hit a 3 on the team’s first possession and kept on chucking from there on out. He attempted 10 3s, connecting on four, on his way to a pretty ugly 5-for-15 shooting night. But those four 3s are hard to look past. He managed to snag two steals, and has always been right around average in that category, but is nothing special in boards – especially if you are using him as a PF – and doesn’t help out anywhere else. But anyone who has carte blanche to launch that many 3s is going to have value, and Radmanovic has the chance to establish himself as the #3 option on an extremely high scoring team, which is always a good situation to be in. Like I said, his only skill is shooting, and shooters always fall into slumps, and when those slumps happen, he’ll hurt you a lot. If he’s shooting 3-for-13 with only a single three, that’s not good. He’s not going to be a savior but: 1) he can help dominate a category, 2) he plays on a high scoring team, 3) he’s playing for a contract.

If you had the foresight to buy low on Luke Ridnour after his bout with nausea/ineffectiveness, well done. With a return to the starting lineup and Hill supporting him, he should go back to being a solid, low-upside PG2. With all the talk about ignored categories, I certainly believe that percentages are ignored, if only because it’s the hardest to figure out how much impact a single player has since it’s not a counting stat. ESPN’s player rater tells me that Ridnour has been exactly as valuable in FT% this year as Chris Bosh – averaging 22 ppg – is in scoring. This is one reason why he’s always underrated – no one will ever want to trade for a guy who excels at FTs.

Perhaps the best development of Hill taking over is that Robert Swift sightings will now be a regular occurrence. This is good news for fans of gawky white dudes being dunked on repeatedly. Swift played 8 minutes last night and picked up five fouls in that time span – and remember, this was against a team that was playing Darius Songaila at center for most of the game! Johan Petro received the bulk of the minutes in the middle and he might be able to step into the Reggie Evans “if you’re desperate for boards” role. He qualifies at center, so that makes him a little more attractive, but his lack of blocks – not to mention his “wait, that’s not a typo?!” percentages of 38% from the field and 27% from the line make him a non-factor. Nick Collison looked very solid in his 22 minutes off the bench, but the “22 minutes off the bench” holds much more weight than the “very solid.” Unless he can work his way back into the starting lineup, even his center eligibility leaves him pretty much worthless.

In the wake of Andrei Kirilenko’s monster 5×5 game last night, I thought it might be a good idea to talk about one of the most under-appreciated breeds in fantasy basketball: the double-defensive threat. There are only twelve players in the league who are averaging both one steal and one block per game, and only six who top 1.5 of each. Those six read out like a murderer’s row of fantasy value: Kevin Garnett, Shawn Marion, Andrei Kirilenko, Marcus Camby, Ben Wallace and Gerald Wallace. All have totally different skill sets outside of the defensive numbers, but they all are major contributors to fantasy teams (as long as they’re healthy).

Still, I’m not going to write a column telling you that you should have the six guys listed above on your fantasy team. I will, however, talk a little bit about some of the guys who are hanging out under the radar who are helping on defense and could help your fantasy team. When looking at stats, the first thing that most people notice is the big three: points, boards, and assists. However, finishing first in points is no more valuable than finishing first in steals, and a guy who averages over half a steal and half a block can be just as valuable as a guy who averages 12 points and 6 boards. Here are a few guys who are lacking in the “big” stats but have sneaky fantasy value due to their defense:

Shane Battier (1.0 steals, 1.3 blocks)
Battier has been a tough fantasy call for most of his career. He’s been stuck in single-digit points for most of his career, and unless you’re Ben Wallace, you’re going to have trouble having fantasy value without scoring 10 ppg. This year, however, Battier has finally crossed the 10 point mark, is shooting over fifty percent, and is also contributing with a three pointer every night. He’s a top-50 fantasy player on just about any rater you look at. However, his big stats are still not much to talk about: 12.8/5.0/1.9 can be found on the waiver wire on a daily basis. He’ll almost certainly be on a roster, but he’s probably undervalued. He’s a good trade target.

Josh Childress (1.3 steals, 0.4 blocks)
I’ve been watching Childress on my waiver wire for about a month now, but I haven’t been able to pull the trigger. He’s around a top-100 fantasy player, and in my league, with 120 starting players, that means he shouldn’t just be on a roster, he should be starting. He was much better in December than he was in November, showing a marked improvement in FT%, FG%, and blocks, and in the last month his value has been closer to 70th than 100th. He was drafted and dropped in most leagues, but astute (and brave) fantasy players will find a spot on their roster for him.

James Jones (0.7 steals, 0.6 blocks)
We got our first glimpse of Jones last year, as the depleted Pacers were forced to play him after the brawl. Jones made a nice name for himself as a marginal points/boards/threes threat, and he was a hot name around draft day this year. However, after losing out to Boris Diaw and Raja Bell for playing time, he has become an afterthought in many leagues. Not so fast! Jones’s contributions in steals and blocks, not to mention his 2.0 threes per game, still give him plenty of fantasy value. His 10.4/3.8/0.6 looks pretty ugly, but the raters don’t lie – he’s got fantasy value.

On a side note, one of the dangerous parts of this idea is that these defensive stats can vary so much from one week to the next, and it’s very easy for a guy to fall into a couple of steals in a game by accident, which will inflate his value. Be careful to make sure that the guys you’re targeting have a history of putting up strong numbers before you consider picking them up.