The trading deadline is about a week away for most leagues. Here’s a couple of guys to target as nice “buy-lows”:

Steve Francis
Bear with me on this one. Francis’s value hasn’t been any lower at any point in his career. He’s in a rotten situation on a rotten team, he’s showing up late to games due to “family emercengies”, and his stats are showing it. Like most players on the Knicks, he’s shooting about 1/3 of the threes that he normally would, and that should continue. Playing alongside Stephon Marbury, Jamal Crawford and Jalen Rose, he’s taken a nice hit in assists. His steals are down, but should pick up to around normal levels. So why buy on Stevie?

Well, a couple reasons. One, Larry Brown (supposedly) wanted him there, and he’s had no problem getting minutes, or shots – he was the team’s leading shot-taker again New Jersey on Friday, and his shots-per-minute has been remarkable similar in New York to what it was in Orlando. Shots don’t just happen in Larry Brown’s system – they’re awarded. And Franchise has been getting his. Secondly, watch Marbury, you’ve got to wonder how much longer he’s going to keep playing this year. He’s got a recurring shoulder injury, he doesn’t mesh well with his coach, and just watching him out there, you can tell he’s unhappy. If/when he shuts it down, that’s great news for Francis. His owners aren’t going to give him away, but depending on how big a discount you can get, Francis may be worth a shot.

Tyson Chandler
Chandler has been nothing short of a major disappointment in his post-contract year. He’s averaging a pathetic 5.4 ppg (a career low!), his 1.2 blocks are tied for a career low, and it’s just been really tough for his owners all year long. There have been signs of a turnaround in February, and he rolled off 13 straight double-digit rebounding games before Saturday’s 8-board performance in just 17 minutes. In Scott Skiles’ crazy minutes system, Chandler has been inconsistent, and it’s been nearly impossible to figure out how he’s going to do from one game to the next. So why buy on Tyson?

For no other reason than the fact that his owners have got to be sick of him. Centers have been at an extreme premium this year, and there are plenty of you guys out there who could really use the nine boards and 1.2 blocks that Chandler provides. Additionally, with the Bulls slipping away from the playoffs, Skiles is running out of time figuring out a lineup that works. One of the coaches of the year candidates last year might be out of a job this year if he can’t get his team in the playoffs. Look for him to count on Chandler to help with the push for the postseason.

Bobby Jackson
This is buying real low. Actually, odds are that Bobby’s on your league’s waiver wire. Jackson was a hot pickup after Damon Stoudamire’s season-ending injury, but since Chucky Atkins entered the fold in Memphis, Jackson’s been spiraling out of fantasy discussions. One of my favorite strategies over the final few months is buying on guys who are playing for new contracts, and Jackson is one of those guys. Sure, he’s an old, injury-prone point guard who’s sharing time, and his minutes have been inconsistent. But, he’s playing for a contract. With a strong showing in the final few months and playoffs, he could get a nice 2- or 3-year deal somewhere. Falling off the map, he’s going to be looking a one-year deals and miminum contracts. There’s some incentive for ya.

We’re in the home stretch of the fantasy basketball season. Only seven weeks remain, and by this point you should know if you have any shot at fantasy glory. The real trading deadline has passed, so there shouldn’t be any huge shifts in value unless it happens due to injury (and this will happen). It’s the time when lots of people start to focus on baseball, so certain teams in your league may stop being factors. With fewer active teams you should find it easier to move up in the standings, but at the same time, your competitors will be in the same boat. Here are some strategies to keep in mind over the last few weeks.

Try To Pull Off That Huge Deal
Why not? What do you have to lose? If you’re languishing in fifth of sixth place, go for the big splash and shake things up. This is the time to take risks. What’s the difference between finishing fifth and finishing ninth? Not a whole lot. At the same time, if you’re stuck in second place (that’s me), it might be time to make that push for the top spot. Now in many leagues, there certainly is a difference between second and fifth place, so you don’t want to take too big a risk and find yourself out of the money when the season comes to an end. But these are the two types of squads that might be able to pull off a good deal.

If you’re the team in the middle of the pack, you might have to buck the common practice of getting the best player in a deal and see if you can score a bunch of solid players in return. As great as Kevin Garnett or Dwyane Wade or whomever may be, your best bet may be find three solid players to replace them, especially if you find yourself in the middle of the pack because you haven’t used as many games as the teams above you (more on that later).

Another strategy to consider when making deals, especially for owners just trying to move up one or two spots as opposed to four or five – make a deal that will hurt the guy you’re trying to catch. It’s obvious that you want to maximize your own point total, but sometimes you might have to try and take a few points away from the guy up top. If you see that he’s vulnerable in blocks, and you have some blocks to spare and can make a deal to the guy right behind him blocks, by all means go for it. It’s not lame, it’s good, solid strategy. Further along those lines – and this sort of goes without saying – if there is a category where you can pass the team ahead of you, pay extra attention there. Because that’s not just one point you’re gaining, it’s really two, if you can pull it off.

Work the Waiver Wire Frantically
This may seen obvious, and it can be tied into the above. In a typical league – especially non-keeper leagues – the folks in the bottom half of the standings aren’t going to be paying too much attention anymore. That’s just the way it is. So that means, in theory at least, there should be more viable options available on the waiver wire as those teams not only stop trying to pick up new players, but leave their rosters populated with guys who aren’t much help. Now on one hand, if you are constantly mining the waiver wire that might mean that your team is in too much trouble to be helped. I’ve long maintained that while there are certainly waiver wire gems to be had out there, constructing a team with a solid 1 through 10 that doesn’t need much day-to-day maintenance is the way to go.

But for the team looking to make the push for a true superstar in a three-for-one deal, the higher quality on the waiver wire is what makes this possible. More and more players on the free agent list will be able to put up top 50/top 75 numbers over a short span. This will enable you to move your more established mid-level players in a bigger deal and not lose any drop off because of the stronger free options available.

It’s also time to take advantage of guys who will have as few as one games of significance. For example, Samuel Dalembert went down with a sprained ankle last week and looks to be missing his third straight game tonight. Stephen Hunter has started the last two games and even though he has seen only 42 total minutes, he has still managed to block four shots. Every little bit helps, right?

Start Using Those Games
If you’ve been hoarding games to stay under the limit in order to make a late run, now is the time to start using those games. I can’t implore this enough. There is absolutely no reason not to finish your season with the maximum number of games allowed in your league. Ideally you’ll want to be right on pace to finish up during the last week, maybe +1 or so. Remember that Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays are the busiest days in the NBA, and that’s when most teams are in action. If you have 13 good options for 10 spots, but have 13 guys suiting up on Wednesday and then only two guys on Thursday, you aren’t going to be able to take full advantage of this. Plan ahead, look at schedules and see where you have openings. Think of how you will feel if you end up losing by one point because you finished four 3s behind someone and you had three games left at SG.

Keeper Leagues
Just curious, how many of you play in keeper leagues? And what kind of rules do you use? Would it be helpful if we posted an article on good keeper league targets? Just trying to get a feel for what’s out there…

Sorry about the delay folks, but my Comcast internet service has been anything but Comcastic.

So much for that “exciting week full of blockbuster trades.” It’s sad when the biggest name we can talk about at the trade deadline is a reserve point guard averaging 7 points a game. Earl Watson should complement Seattle’s Luke Ridnour well, but he is still a backup and has no fantasy value. In New York, Isiah Thomas reassured Knicks fans by saying the Marbury-Francis backcourt combo is “crazy enough that it just might work.” Way to showcase your meticulous scouting and decision-making process Zeke. Jamal Crawford’s numbers will take a serious hit, and I don’t think Marbury or Francis will fare any better in the second half of the season either. Well, time to get back to business and look ahead to week 2/27-3/5.

Four Games: Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Golden State, Houston, LAC, LAL, New York, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, Sacramento, Toronto, Utah, Washington.
Three Games: Boston, Charlotte, Indiana, Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Jersey, San Antonio, Seattle.
Two Games: New Orleans.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Derek Fisher, PG – The latest report on Baron Davis’s sprained ankle has him sidelined indefinitely. This leaves the Warriors with veteran Derek Fisher running the point. The 31-year-old is actually averaging a career high 12 points per game, and has been outstanding in eight starts this season: 16/3/6 and 2.8 steals. If available in your league Fisher makes a great short-term pickup and an excellent start with a full schedule next week.

Earl Boykins, PG – Do you think Earl could have won the Slam Dunk Contest if Spud Webb got down on his hands and knees and was used as a launching pad to propel Boykins above the rim? I think he could have done it in less than 13 attempts and it would have been spectacular. Or maybe Shaq could have participated and asked Bill Russell to defend the basket during his dunk attempts. With Earl Watson getting traded back to Seattle, Boykins should benefit by being Andre Miller’s primary backup and also getting plenty of minutes at the two for the Nuggets. Boykins is averaging career highs in threes (1.0) and points (12.9), and makes a decent start with four contests coming up.

Keyon Dooling/Carlos Arroyo, PG – I’m gonna leave this one up to you. Dooling was handed a starting gig as soon as Stevie Francis was sent packin’ and he responded with an impressive 23/1/6 on Wednesday. On the other hand, recently acquired PG Carlos Arroyo was no throw-in in the Darko deal. The Magic actually expressed an intention to make Arroyo their new starting point guard shortly after the trade. The Puerto Rican native has seen a steady increase in playing time since moving to Orlando and outplayed Dooling last night putting up 18/4/4 on 7-for-11 shooting. In six years in the NBA Keyon Dooling has never really looked like an everyday player, so don’t be surprised if Arroyo takes his spot in the starting lineup sometime next week. Take your pick and plug him in.

Marvin Williams, F – Last week I recommended Atlanta’s Josh & Josh tandem, and now last year’s #2 overall pick has finally appeared on our fantasy radars. Over the last couple weeks the former Tar Heel is scoring 12.2 ppg in about 31 minutes a night. Marvin is also getting to the line more often (29 free throw attempts in last five games), which is an encouraging sign. The Hawks are still crowded at forward, but the team hits the hardwood another four times next week, so Williams may be a better option than guys like David West (only 2 games) and Udonis Haslem (3).

Darko Milicic, F/C – First of all, I apologize for jumping the gun on Darko last week. I saw that Orlando had four games on tap and I assumed he would get playing time right away. Shame on me. But 4 minutes in his first two games?? That’s less than his worst days in Detroit. Come on coach, your “system” cannot be that complicated… now it’s time to let the kid play! Milicic finally managed to log 22 minutes last night, scored 8, grabbed 5 boards, and swatted a couple shots en route to a 102-89 victory over Seattle. It will probably be another week or two before he gets steady minutes, so if you have a more reliable option use it. Otherwise if you’re in need of some help at center feel free to take a chance on Darko. He’s got four games again this week and could be a better start than PJ Brown (2) and Melvin Ely (3).

Also: Was that a Grant Hill sighting last night or just my imagination? Did Joe Smith really just drop 32 points on the Sixers? (outscoring Iverson)
How about these lines worth noting… Martell Webster getting the start and putting up 24 and 8 with four treys. Plus, I really like Travis Outlaw’s prospects for a solid second-half. Celtics rookie Ryan Gomes posting 13/17/4 for his second straight double-double. Kyle Korver scored a career high 31 points on 10-for-17 FGs and 7/7 FTs.

“I think I’m going to do a late-afternoon/early evening post to go over all the deals that happen today”
- Me, in an e-mail to DM and PR this morning.

“Um.”
- Me, now.

Barring any late reports on a blockbuster of any kind, Deadline Day came and went this year and barely an “add” was made in most fantasy leagues. Still, there are a few things to note for fantasy players. Let’s go down the depressingly short lists:

Three guys who have more value in their new digs:

1. Flip Murray in Cleveland.
Murray should become the new starting shooting guard in Cleveland, and in fact could spend some time backing up Eric Snow at the point. He’s worth a pickup in most leagues as Sasha Pavlovic has been a pretty big disappointment as the replacement to Larry Hughes. In fact, Murray is pretty much a Hughes-lite – a combo guard who likes to shoot, despite a relatively low percentage. Murray might be the only “no-brainer” pickup for fantasy players today, but I’m not sure I could even endorse him as a no-brainer.

2. Brian Skinner in Portland.
In related news, Portland hires Superintendent Chalmers as an assistant coach. Skinner has some short term value for two very simple reasons – one, he qualifies at center, and two, his only competition for PT is Ha Seung-Jin. Until Theo Ratliff or Joel Przybilla come back, Skinner could be a nice quick-fix at center. But his long-term value is still pretty slim.

3. Marc Jackson in Oklahoma City.
Some folks are thinking that Jackson will be worth a pickup, but really, I just don’t see it happening. You’re telling me that he’ll put up anything better the than 12/5 with an OK FT% that he had last year in Philly? I mean, yes, he’s a center, but he doesn’t act like one – he won’t give you much of anything in blocks or FG%. Only if you’re desperate.

One guy who has more value (maybe) by staying right where he is:

1. Travis Outlaw.
When Ruben Patterson got moved out of Portland, Travis Outlaw saw a lot of PT open up for him. Now, admittedly, Darius Miles’ return might offset this, but Outlaw is an FBB favorite and he’s been on my radar screen for quite a while. I talked about his strengths on Wednesday, and now I’m hoping that he’ll find his way into the lineup more often.

Three guys who have seen their value take a hit:

1. Sasha Pavlovic
Pavlovic is one of those guys that has the rare talent of getting almost 30 mpg and still have minimal fantasy value. With Flip now in the equation, Pavlovic shouldn’t be considered a guy of any value whatsoever.

2. Greg Buckner
Buckner was just starting to garner some attention now that he started getting major minutes in Denver and putting up nice numbers in steals and threes. Now that Ruben Patterson has entered the equation, though, I’d expect Buckner’s minutes to take a hit (what, you though ‘Melo would hit the bench?), and put him back in fantasy purgatory.

3. Luke Ridnour
Now, this is going to be a very minor hit. But now that he’s got a real-life backup behind him, Luke might see a slight drop in minutes. Still, this might not be a bad thing, as he’s been playing a ton of minutes lately and could use a little rest. Maybe he’ll get that awful 3-point percentage back up over 30%.

That’s it. Also, due to some technical difficulties (thanks again, Comcast!) PR’s weekly “Head-to-Heads Up” column might not be up until late Friday or Saturday. Let’s all keep our fingers crossed.

Well, today’s the big day. Everyone will be frantically refreshing ESPN.com, RealGM.com and whatever other sites to get the latest on the trades that just aren’t going to happen. There will be plenty of talk, but will there be any action? We shall see. I’m always skeptical, but that goes for everything. Just like I’ll believe a player comes back from a sprained ankle when I see him on the court, I’ll believe a trade rumor when the NBA officially announces a deal. But as we all know, a pretty big deal went down yesterday, as the Knicks swung a deal to acquire Steve Francis’s outrageous contract and his past-his-prime, overrated to begin with talent for the expiring contract of Penny Hardaway and a promising young player in Trevor Ariza. You’ve had plenty of chances to read about fallout and ramifications, but don’t you want to read one more? I thought so.

Winners
Keyon Dooling – In our league, Dooling was picked up about 45 seconds after news of the trade first broke, and the only thing the guy who nabbed him can be upset about is that he didn’t have him in time for last night’s game. Getting the start at PG and playing a team high 42 minutes, Dooling went off for 23/1/6 on 9-of-14 shooting. Good stuff. He’s certainly worth a pickup and should be a strong play in the short term. But there are some caveats. First off, the Magic are extremely depleted right now, so Dooling has little choice but to be the main man. Jameer Nelson, Grant Hill and Hedo Turkoglu are all out. Now even before today’s news that the Magic are considering buying Hill out, I had all but written him off for the season. Meanwhile Nelson is at least three weeks away from returning, while Turkoglu should be back within a week or so. So Dooling should be able to have his way for a while. But what about his game? He’s masquerading as a PG right now, but Dooling isn’t a natural at that position and has a pretty limited fantasy repertoire. His line last night sort of shows that, as he came up empty in 3s, steals and blocks. He’s averaging a decent 1.4 steals per 40 this season, right in line with his career averages. During the 02-03 season with the Clippers he attempted 2.5 3s in just 17.6 mpg, but other than that he’s never been much of a long range threat. And he’s a career 40% shooter. And he’s turned the ball over at an alarming rate this year, with 2.1 per game in just 22.3 mpg. I’d still plug him into lineups immediately and use him while he’s still likely to receive 40 minutes and be one of the team’s top scoring options. But he’s not going to put up numbers as good as Jameer Nelson when he was in a similar position.

Carlos Arroyo – I like Arroyo better as a player than Dooling, but he’s in the same boat when it comes to having a limited fantasy arsenal. He’s not going to hit many 3s or grab many steals even with lots of playing time, although he will rack up the assists if given the opportunity. Right now he seems to be in the same boat as Jose Calderon, a guy who can help in assists in the deepest of leagues, and would be worth a pickup if he could crack the starting lineup. But with Dooling and DeShawn Stevenson (yet another Magic player with limited fantasy upside) ahead of him, it doesn’t look like that will happen. It’s worth noting that Dooling is quite fragile, though, and should be go down with an injury before Nelson’s return, Arroyo could put up some nice numbers.

Dwight Howard – Remember last year when Vince Carter was traded from Toronto and Chris Bosh really picked his game up a notch and made his way into the elite class? I’m hoping we see something like that happen with Howard. It’s no sure thing, by any means, but with the Magic clearly building the team around the young big man, now is the time for him to start taking control on offense. Howard has been a very solid performer all year, but he’s still a bit tentative on offense. He hasn’t topped 25 points a single time this season and has attempted more than 15 shots in just four games. It seems like Howard would have little choice but to take a bigger role in the offense. These next few months will be very crucial in determining where Howard should be selected next year. Bosh’s total numbers last year didn’t reflect how strong he played once Carter left town, and even if he went in the third rounds of drafts this year, he’s turned out to be a bargain. We’ll see if the same happens with Howard.

Steve Francis – First off, I’d like to start a petition to get Francis’s #23 jersey taken down from the rafters in Cole Field House. I was there over the weekend and it pained me to see this chump who played just one season (and a pretty disappointing one at that, all things considered) have his jersey hanging up there with the likes of Steve Blake, Juan Dixon and Lonny Baxter. Anyway, it just wasn’t happening anymore for Francis in Orlando. He had to get out of there. Will moving to the Big Apple and the biggest mess of a team in the league help him? At this point it can’t hurt him. You probably read the Sports Guy’s theory that guys like Francis should be traded every four months or so, just so they always play inspired ball. His idea was that Francis and Marbury should continuously be dealt for each other, not share the backcourt together, but oh well. A best case scenario has Francis and Marbury clicking like Gilbert Arenas and Larry Hughes did last year. A worst case scenario has him … well, playing like he was the past few weeks in Orlando. Nowhere to go but up, right?

Channing Frye – Maybe with this trade Larry Brown will finally start to simply throw his best players out there and see what happens. Marbury, Francis and Jalen Rose are locked in for a loooong while now. We can probably call them untradeable since they are now on the one team that made it previously impossible to call any player with a horrible contract untradeable. So LB should just go with it, start those three along with Channing Frye and Eddy Curry and see what happens. Honestly, that’s a talented lineup. You might worry that Frye will never get his hands on the ball, but he will, and when he gets the ball, he rarely lets it go. He’s averaging 10.5 FGA per game in just 25.4 mpg, so he takes his shots. This is probably just wishful thinking, as is anything with the Knicks, but LB can’t keep going back and forth with Frye. Perhaps there will finally be some stability, and he can take advantage of that. Man, did I really just write that?

Losers
Jamal Crawford — Early rumors had Crawford going to Orlando as part of the Francis deal, which might have been an ideal situation for him, as it could have been him who would have inherited Dooling’s role and Gunner by Default. He could have at least approached 20 ppg and 3 3pg with big minutes in Orlando. But now he’s stuck behind the $30 million backcourt and there just doesn’t seem to be enough minutes to go around. He’ll still explode for his occasional 27 points in 24 minutes, but it’ll be pretty impossible to know when that will happen.

Quentin Richardson – Just when it looked like he might be able to salvage some value, it looks like he’ll be made irrelevant again. Really, you’ve got Francis, Marbury, Rose, Crawford and Richardson fighting for minutes at three positions. Richardson seems to be the lowest member on the totem pole there. He had scored double digits in five straight, was hitting the boards well like he usually does and was slowly re-discovering his three-point stroke. But it’s hard to see him managing much value from here on out.

Jameer Nelson – Just bad timing for his injury. A longtime FBB favorite, he could be putting up true “difference maker” numbers with Francis out of the picture. But he’ll be on the shelf for a while, and who knows if the Magic will even want to risk bringing him back for the last few weeks, depending on his progress. A tough break for owners who held onto him hoping for a situation like this. But next year? If he can nab the starting job, he is going to certainly be worth targeting in drafts.

Got an itchy trigger finger? Want to make some moves to take advantage of the trade deadline, but tired of waiting for NBA GM’s to make a move? Here are a five guys that are nice bets to take if you’ve got an extra roster spot hanging around:

Marvin Williams, F, ATL
Williams has already been getting talked about as the Sam Bowie to Chris Paul’s Michael Jordan, but it’s way too early for that kind of talk. Williams has been mildly effective in his 23 mpg so far this season, and has seen that number creep up to 25 mpg in February. Right now, he’s got potential as a do-a-little-of-everything kind of guy. Given 35 mpg, he should contribute a bit in both defensive categories, rebounds, points, and threes. With Al Harrington a reasonable bet to get moved, Williams is worth taking a chance on.

Travis Outlaw, F, POR
Outlaw is in a similar situation to Williams, as he’s been fighting with a lot of guys for PT, and could see that PT clear up by the time the deadline passes. He’s more likely to be effective with his minutes than Williams, as he’s right now a better rebounder and defender, but the odds of him ending up in a situation where he’s got 35 mpg are much worse than Williams. Still, his potential should he end up with those kind of minutes is fairly on par with a Kenyon Martin type, where he’ll contribute mildly in points and boards, but his real value will come in his defensive numbers.

Voshon Lenard, SG, DEN
This is a very minor one. I don’t expect Lenard to be putting up huge numbers anywhere come next week, but the report that he could be released if not traded means that he should at least be playing somewhere come March. Early prediction – he’ll end up in Detroit. Regardless, if he ends up as a 20-25 mpg kind of guy for a contender means that he should be able to contribute in three pointers. He’ll be a very nice down-the-stretch pickup for roto teams looking to make a move in three pointers, and could max out as high as a MoPete-esque contributor.

Jose Calderon, PG, TOR
Calderon was one of the most added and quickly dropped guys early in the season, showing some ability as a 3rd guard but never being consistent enough. But with Mike James potentially getting moved, and Jalen Rose already gone, there aren’t many players left to handle the rock north of the border. Remember, during that 9-game stretch in late November/early December where he was seeing around 36 mpg, he put up OK numbers – 7.4 assists, 1.4 steals, and 4.7 boards, along with very nice percentages. With another few months under his belt, and fewer scorers on the team, I’d like to think he could push that scoring into double digits.

Joe Smith, PF, MIL
Smith has proven that when he gets his minutes, he can be a fairly solid fantasy contributor. Now that he’s returned from injury, he’s been getting about 20 mpg in the crowded frontcourt in Milwaukee. However, there are two reason to believe that he could start seeing closer to 30 mpg. One, Jamaal Magloire has been mentioned as a potential trade candidate and that would surely open up minutes for Smith. Two, Andrew Bogut could very well be hitting the rookie wall. His FG%, points and boards are all down significantly in February, and he might benefit from a cut in minutes, meaning more time for Smith. Admittedly, Smith is a fairly low-reward pickup, but solid bigs are tough to find.

I was all ready to sit down here and write all about who I think will break out in the second half of the season. The problem is, it’s really tough to pick who’s going to get more minutes in the next few months when we don’t even know what teams some players are going to be on. The fact is, it’s nearly impossible to predict how some guys who are on the trading block will perform next week, much less next month. This, however, can be advantageous to your fantasy team if you guess right. For example, a lot of Ron Artest owners got an itchy trigger finger in December and traded their stud for well below value in the fear that he wouldn’t play for the rest of the season. Well, the guys who guessed right and bought Ron at a discount are really reaping the benefits right now. In order to help you guess right, we’re going to try to categorize some of these guys on the block, and suggest how to handle them:

The Malcontent Stud: Steve Francis, PG, ORL
Francis has been one of the most disappointing players in the NBA this year. His stats are down across the board, and yet again he’s let his emotions get in the way of his talent. Still, if you’re looking for a chance to take right now, this is a nice one to pick. The fact of the matter is, that when Francis is in a spot where he’s happy, he’s going to produce at a 2nd-round value. And if an NBA team is going to go about acquire Francis, you’d better believe they’re going to do their best to keep him happy, especially with 3 more years on his contract after this year.

The problem is, a couple of the teams being discussed in connection with Francis might not be great places for him. Would he really be happy playing alongside Kobe in LA? Would he fare any better than Stephon Marbury under Larry Brown in New York? Both of these spots would really be questionable for Francis. However, a move to a team like Denver could be great for Stevie. Same thing with Minnesota. In those situations, you might be able to see the sort of stats we’ve come to expect from Franchise. If you think a malcontent stud is heading for greener pastures (like, say, Baron Davis last year), then by all means make a play for him.
Other malcontent studs: Stephon Marbury, Lamar Odom.

The Impending Free Agent: Al Harrington, F, ATL
Now, in this category, I’m not including deadweight contract guys like Penny Hardaway. These are guys that are going to make noise in the offseason and these final 30 games or so are going to determine whether they’re just rich or stinking rich. That’s the good news. The bad news is, a lot of times these guys move from being stars on bad teams to playing supporting roles on teams making a move for the playoffs. Harrington, to me, seems more like the latter category. He’s certainly enjoying a nice season in Atlanta, but he’s also their most consistent scorer behind Joe Johnson and gets plenty of minutes on a really bad team.

But what happens when a guy like Harrington gets moved to a team like, say, Cleveland or Memphis (not that there are necessarily any rumors to that effect)? He becomes the third or fourth option, and his stats decrease, big time. However, there’s also the possibility that, like Cuttino Mobley or Antoine Walker last year, they’ll move to a situation where they’ll maintain their level of play. Still, it’s hard to see guys like these move to a spot where they will see a big increase in minutes or stats.
Other impending free agent: Mike James.

The Second (or Third, or Fourth, or Fifth) Chance: Eddie Griffin, F/C, MIN
Finally, we come to the favorite kind of trades for fantasy players. Everyone’s got their favorite under-performing youngster who they think, if only they got the chance to play big minutes, they would be a stud. Griffin is the perfect example. He shoots three pointers, blocks shots at a terrific per-minute rate, and qualifies at center. The problem is, he never gets consistent minutes. Now in his fourth season and on his second team, he’s still struggling to stay on the court enough to have any fantasy value. But you’d better believe that if he gets moved this week, there will be an all-out stampede to the waiver wires to pick him up (led by a couple of FBB commenters, I might add), in the hopes that his new digs will provide him with new opportunities.

The problem is, these guys rarely benefit from this kind of move. Last year, for example, guys like Jiri Welsch and Carlos Arroyo were moved mid-season, but nothing really came of either of them. What you’ve got to look at is, what is the reason that the guy isn’t succeeding where he is now? Is there a star playing in front of them? Are they in a crowded minutes situation? Are there ball-hogs keeping the ball away from them? Are they in their coach’s doghouse? If the answers are no (like, for example, in the case of Eddie Griffin), odds are they won’t be any better off in new setting than they are now.

On Thursday I took a look at some of the most pleasant surprises in each category for the season thus far. Today, the biggest disappointments.

Quentin Richardson’s 1.1 3pg
In retrospect it was easy to see it coming, but that still doesn’t make it any less disappointing. Richardson went from the best possible situation – Phoenix’s free-wheeling, fire-at-will system – to the worst in Larry Brown’s more disciplined (to put it mildly) system. Still, since Richardson was a recent acquisition and was locked into a long-term deal, you’d think that he’d see enough PT to at least continue being one of the top three-point shooters in the league. But then you remember that everyone on New York was a recent acquisition locked into a long-term deal. Injuries and an undefined rotation hampered Richardson early on and he’s gotten into an extended groove. His longest streak of consecutive games with a 3 is just four games and after leading the league with 2.9 3pg last year, he’s at just 1.1 per game this year; that’s fewer than Jumaine Jones, for comparison.

Larry Hughes’s 1.5 spg
Like Richardson, here was another league leader from last year who averaged 2.9 per game in his category and switched teams in the offseason to disappointing results. Even discounting his injury, Hughes saw his output drop almost in half. We’ve thrown out some ideas as to why this was – new defensive system, presence of LeBron as another defensive stopper, lack of a contract year push, etc. It was obviously unrealistic to expect Hughes to approach three per contest again since he never even averaged two prior to last year. But some consolidation of his gains would have been nice.

LeBron James’s 7.2 apg
A somewhat odd choice, I realize, but there is no real obvious selection. Earlier in the season it would have been Mike Bibby and perhaps he still would be the best choice as his assists are down from 6.8 to 5.4, and this is without Chris Webber around. But the fact is that Bibby’s 5.4 apg this year ties for his best output as a King save for last year, so it’s hard to be too upset. Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis have both seen dips, too. But I’ll go with LeBron even if it is just a case of us putting unrealistic expectations on him. I mean, after all, he’s 12th in the league in the category and everyone who is above him is a PG, except for perhaps Dwyane Wade. But admit it, you had visions of a triple-double season from King James, or at leat a 30/8.5/8.5 season. What you surely didn’t expect was to see his numbers go down in any of the main categories, but that’s what has happened in assists, as he’s dropped from 7.2 last year to 6.6 this year. So, it’s all relative, and it just shows how LeBron is a league of his own when it comes to crazy all around numbers, but it’s still a slight letdown.

Kurt Thomas’s 7.7 rpg
I guess we’re seeing a trend so far; players who switch teams are tending to be disappointments. Thomas was 7th in the league in boards last year, averaging 10.4 per game with the Knicks. He was then shipped to Phoenix and when Amare Stoudemire went down, big things were expected from Thomas, at least on the boards. He was one of the team’s only big men and with shots being fired up left and right, he’d have plenty of chances to put up big numbers. Instead, he’s having trouble staying on the floor and is putting up his worst rebounding numbers since the 00-01 season. He’s certainly shown flashes of dominance, such as the eight game stretch in late November/early December when he averaged 14.3 boards per game. But even though his starting spot has been largely secure, starting 46 of the team’s 49 contests, he hasn’t proven to be nearly the asset as most thought he would be.

Yao Ming’s 50% FG
According the Player Rater, he’s still the 13th best player in the league in this category, at least based on averages. But after shooting 55% last year, Yao’s drop can’t make his owners too happy. A big reason for this is that it hasn’t come with anything to offset it. Sure, his scoring is up, but only 1.3 points per game, which doesn’t come close to making up for this drop in FG%. Yao has yet to show that he can be a top rebounder, and his block totals are serviceable if not wonderful for a center. For these reasons, he needs to continue to be a truly dominant force in FG% to live up to his usually lofty draft status, and he’s just not doing so this year. It should be noted that the absence of Tracy McGrady for 13 games had a very negative impact on Yao’s FG% and his numbers with McGrady in the lineup are much better.

Jamaal Magloire’s 54% FT
In some ways we should have seen this coming, but in other ways it was a huge shock. Last year Magloire shot just 60% from the line, so this isn’t completely out of the blue. But in 03-04 he shot 75% from the line on a career high 5.7 attempts per game, and he shot above 70% the two seasons prior to that, which is quite good for a big man. So with a 60% season coming on the heels of three 70%+ seasons, it was quite reasonable to believe that last year was the outlier and Magloire would return to his career average of around 70%. But instead he’s become a huge liability, basically killing what was marginal fantasy value to begin with, especially in roto leagues. Magloire has shown no signs of breaking out of what is now a two-year funk, as he hasn’t topped 61% in any month this season. It looks like he’s just lost this skill.

Tyson Chandler’s 1.1 bpg
Chandler has been one of the season’s biggest disappointments, and this is the category where it really shows. Everyone knows about the big contract he signed in the offseason and how we all thought with Eddy Curry out of the way he would step into a starting role and do his best Marcus Camby impression. But he’s come nowhere close to that. He was hampered by some strange illnesses early in the season, which affected his play and led to his eventual benching. He seems to be over those issues now and is back in the starting lineup and playing considerable minutes – 33 mpg in the last 13 contests – but still isn’t racking up the blocks like we had hoped. He’s averaging just 1.2 bpg in those 13 starts and hasn’t topped two blocks in even one of those games.

Steve Francis’s 16.6 ppg
Not counting Amare Stoudemire, there were 20 players who averaged 20 ppg or more last season. Only three of those are below the 20 ppg mark this season, and Francis has seen easily the biggest drop off (Shaq and Stephon Marbury are the other two). Coming into this season it seemed like Francis was one of the most reliable second-tier fantasy stars around. Besides that one rough year in Houston, he’s always put up strong numbers. His 21.3 ppg during his first season in Orlando was the second highest mark of his career and on a team without another established scoring threat, there was little reason to expect much change this year. But it’s been a struggle from the start and is now just getting worse by the day, and it seems like everyone – Francis, the Magic, fantasy owners – are hoping he has a new address come Thursday. Francis is in classic “mope” mode right now, as he’s not even trying to score. He averaged 17.1 attempts per game last year, down to 12.6 this year, and just 11.5 in the new year. You can’t score if you don’t shoot and Francis seems to have little interest in that right now.

Well I’m glad the NBA (David Stern) came to its senses and invited Gilbert Arenas to play in Houston this weekend after all. Too bad Gil had to go and finish the first half of the season with a 4-for-22 effort and 6 turnovers at Dallas. Ouch.
So we have All-Star festivities to get through this weekend and then we’re back to the real games and hopefully an exciting week full of blockbuster trades. Here’s looking at you, week 2/20-2/26.

Four Games: Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Indiana, LAL, Memphis, Milwaukee, New Jersey, New Orleans, Orlando, Portland, Seattle.
Three Games: Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Golden State, Houston, LAC, Minnesota, New York, Philadelphia, San Antonio, Utah, Washington.
Two Games: Denver, Miami, Phoenix, Sacramento, Toronto.

Season-long trade rumors are finally coming to fruition this week. Darko is moving to Disney World, former Terrapin Chris Wilcox swapped area codes with Vlad Rad, and Stevie Franchise just may get another ‘change of scenery’ if Isaiah Thomas continues his quest to bury the Knicks six-feet-under. Keep a close eye on pending trades as several players are sure to find themselves in new situations that could really boost their second half value.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Josh Smith/Childress, G/F – The reigning Slam-Dunk champ just put up career-highs of 21 points and 15 boards, while fellow swingman Josh Childress also scored a season-high 21 in a win over the Lakers Wednesday. We’re keeping our fingers crossed that Al Harrington will be asked to pack his bags before the Feb. 23rd deadline. Josh & Josh would immediately reap the benefits should Harrington (and his 37 mpg) depart. Smith averages an incredible 2.3 blks in only 27.5 mpg, and Childress contributes across the board but especially in steals with 1.2 spg in 28.4 minutes. Hopefully both will see 30-35 minutes a night the rest of the way and improve on their already respectable numbers. The youngsters have four games next week so get them in your lineups.

Delonte West, PG – LeBron (43/12/11) and Paul Pierce (50/7/8) may have stolen the show in an overtime thriller the other night, but Delonte also filled his stat line with 15/10/8 and 3 blocks. One of the best waiver wire pickups of the year, the versatile guard just keeps on truckin’. Jefferson, Perkins, and Wally are banged up, so West should have plenty of scoring chances in four contests next week.

Anthony Johnson, PG – Jamaal Tinsley is starting to make Marcus Camby and Fred Taylor look like iron men. He’s only appeared in 23 games this season and hasn’t been healthy for a full year since his rookie campaign. Veteran point guard Anthony Johnson has been handed the reins and asked to do what he can to help salvage Indiana’s season. A.J. has been a member of the Pacers’ starting five since the end of December and averages nearly 30 mpg as a starter. Usually just a borderline fantasy starter in deep leagues, Johnson’s hot hand (19/4/5 with 2 threes and 1.3spg in last 3 outings) makes a decent plug-and-play for four games next week.

Darko Milicic, F/C – If there ever was an ideal situation for the young 7-footer, Orlando is it. Darko’s playing time was so limited in Detroit that analyzing his stats does not really give you an indication of his potential. He’s shooting an impressive 51.5% from the floor, yet a miserable 37.5% from the charity stripe this season. But of course, his 17-of-33 FGs and 3-of-8 from the line are such small samples that they are essentially rendered meaningless. If one were to ascertain anything from his stats it would have to be his impressive 15 blocks in only 140 minutes of play this season. He’s sure to see plenty of playing time on his new team, and starting alongside league-leading rebounder Dwight Howard (12.6 rpg) seems to be a perfect fit for the Serbian big man. If you’re feelin’ Darko, get him in your lineups right away. Let’s just hope for the best.

Chris Wilcox, F/C – Assuming Evans/Fortson get shipped out of town sometime before next Thursday, Wilcox will have a great opportunity to excel as the new starting PF in Seattle. Now that he lives in Starbucks capital, USA, maybe some grande caramel macchiatos can help Chris wake up and get his head in the game. The former Terp has immense talent and this appears to be a good situation for him. The Sonics frontcourt has lacked athleticism and been clogged up with the likes of Evans/Swift/Collison/Petro/Fortson for too long. Wilcox brings much needed explosiveness up front and could average 15 and 10 if he’s focused and motivated. Think of him as a younger/healthier Kenyon Martin, with center eligibility to boot.

Stash ‘em or at least keep on your radar:
Antoine Walker – He was back in the SLU for a couple games before the break (scored 26 pts and hit six treys on Feb. 15). Employee #8 needs a starting gig to be a consistent fantasy contributor, and he may just land one if traded to the right team.
Shaun Livingston – Prep-to-pro point guard struggling in his second season, “the next Magic Johnson” has started three of the Clips last five games, averaging 6.7 assists in those contests. The potential is there for a monster second half if 36-year-old Cassell were to go down with an injury.
Earl Watson – Incessant trade rumors surrounding Denver’s reserve PG are making me nauseous. He could have some value if given a starting job somewhere (New York?)
Nazr Mohammed – The big man averaged 11 pts and 8 rebounds for the Knicks last season. He has been stuck on the Spurs’ bench all year, but exploded for 18 pts and 20 boards Wednesday night at Philly. He could make some noise if he were to take the starting spot from Rasho, or perhaps filling in for an injured Duncan.

Forget about ‘em and move on:
Larry Hughes – just went under the knife again and will be lucky to return for the playoffs.
Emeka Okafor – they’ve been saying he’ll be back in 3-5 weeks for over a month now. Word out of Charlotte is that he’ll likely sit for the rest of the season.
Jameer Nelson – Specialists can’t figure out what is wrong with his foot, and he is out for at least another three weeks. Even if he returns, he’ll have to fight for playing time with a crowded Orlando backcourt.
Sebastian Telfair – Stephon Marbury’s little cousin was benched in favor of the Blake/Dixon combo. Bassy needs to learn the pro game and improve on his “Dick Cheney-esque” shooting (36.6%FG) before he can be a reliable fantasy force. Maybe next year.
Marko Jaric – Yes, he may be traded, but he is just stinkin’ it up this season.
Deron Williams – Did they really draft him ahead of Chris Paul? Williams is simply not a good fit for the Jazz and Jerry Sloan is not a good fit for fantasy owners.

Also… the Knicks/Magic exchanging Jamal Crawford and Steve Francis would help all parties involved (especially their fantasy owners).
Enjoy the All-Star festivities and be ready to pounce once those trades are announced.

There’s not much going on in the NBA – at least for fantasy purposes – over the next few days, so to follow up on BV’s awards yesterday, I thought I’d hand out some awards myself. These will be for the most pleasant surprises in each of the eight standard roto categories; I’ll have disappointments on Monday.
Rasheed Wallace’s 2.1 3pg
Toward the end of his time in Portland we found out that ‘Sheed could hit the three-ball with regularity in the NBA, as he peaked with 1.5 3pg in the 02-03 season. But in his first season and a quarter with Detroit, he held back on the long ball, averaging just around one triple per contest. With trigger-happy Flip Saunders replacing triple-skeptic Larry Brown, ‘Sheed has had the green light to fire away and is averaging 2.1 3pg, which is just flat out ridiculous for a guy that qualifies at center in most leagues. He started off the season incredible hot from long range, shooting around 44% over the season’s first two months. He’s cooled down considerably since then, but he’s actually taking more shots, so his 3PM has stayed rather constant.

Tony Parker’s 54% FG
Parker’s 48% from the field last year was very nice, but there was reason to suspect that was as good as it was going to get, especially since he didn’t top 46% in any of his first three seasons. Since he primarily shoots while going to the basket he’s going to have a higher FG% than most point guards, but I don’t think anyone saw this 54% coming. Give Parker – and the San Antonio coaching staff – credit for knowing his strength and playing to it. Parker attempted at least 2.0 3pg in each of his first four seasons and never made more than 34%, which is quite poor for a point guard. So this year he’s basically eliminated that shot from his repertoire, attempting a paltry 0.5 per game, and has excelled at taking the ball to the hoop. Now if he could just work on that FT%..

Dwight Howard’s 12.6 rpg
After averaging 10 rebounds per game in his rookie campaign last season we knew Howard was going to be a monster on the boards for years to come. We didn’t know that he’d surpass Ben Wallace and Kevin Garnett as the league’s top rebounder in just his second season. He’s been held to single digit boards in just 11 of his 51 games, and in one of those he left after two minutes. He’s gone for 15 or more in 18 games we’ll be seeing his name near the very top of the rebounding stats for at least a decade or so.

Chauncey Billups’s 8.5 apg
I was as high on Billups as anyone coming into the season, mostly due to his game-to-game consistency, health and solid all-around numbers. One of his “weaknesses” was that he never put up big assist numbers for a point guard – last year’s 5.8 per game was a career high – but it was something we were able to look past. So what does he do this year? He starts handing out dimes like that dealer on the corner. Or something like that. His 8.5 per game is good for third in the league this year, and he’s showing no signs of slowing down.

Chris Bosh’s 81.7% FT
I’ve already written about Bosh’s value in percentages, and this was a pretty easy choice. Center is the one position where you are willing to concede that you probably won’t get someone who’s going to help you in FT%; in fact, you’re probably going to get someone that hurts you. But after shooting 70% and 76% in his first two seasons, Bosh is up to 82% on just over 8 attempts per game. This is just huge value and is a big reason why Bosh is an official Fantasy Stud now.

Elton Brand’s 25.4 ppg
Points is the one category where you generally won’t see too many surprises. Look at the league leaders – it wouldn’t have been too touch to predict Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson and LeBron James as the top three. Brand between 18.2 and 20.1 ppg in each of his first six seasons; he averaged exactly 20 ppg in his last two. He seemed to be locked in at a pretty established level, so that’s why his 25.4 ppg this season is such a pleasant surprise.

Gerald Wallace’s 2.2. bpg
It would be even better if he could stay on the floor, but for all the preseason talk about Josh Smith being a swingman who can help you dominate in blocks, it was Wallace that proved to be that man. We knew he had it in him, as he averaged 1.3 per game last year, but in just 4 minutes more per game, he topped the magical 2 number to get up to 2.2 per game. That includes seven games of four or more, and his average actually increases to 2.4 per game if you factor in that he went block-less in the season’s first three contests.

Chris Paul’s 2.2. spg
Rookies are the great unknown. We like to think we’re going to know what they’re going to do, but the simple fact remains that until they step out on to the NBA court, it’s a guessing game. We – and most folks, admittedly – had Paul pegged as the top rookie in this year’s class and he obviously hasn’t disappointed, recent injury issues aside. His numbers have been stellar all around, but to come into the league and rank second in assists – just ahead of established top thiefs such as Shawn Marion, AI and Jason Kidd – is something special.