As we get into the second half of another fantasy basketball season, it’s always a good idea to stop and look at some lessons we’ve learned. These aren’t necessarily lessons about certain players, but more general trends that seem to surface every year that astute players should be aware of. So let’s look at a few and how they relate to this season.
Kenny Thomas Rule
This one’s actually a combination of two rules: 1) A “temporary fill in” is often much more than that, and 2) a “temporary fill in” on a team where the coach rides his starters is even better. As of Christmas, Kenny Thomas was entirely irrelevant for fantasy purposes. He saw 25 minutes of action just once on the season up to that point and had season highs of 11 points and 8 rebounds. But then Shareef Abdur-Rahim went down with an injury and Thomas found himself in the starting lineup. At first it was unclear how long Abdur-Rahim would be out, and this might have kept some people doubting Thomas’s ability to help a team long term. (I’m sorry. Very, very sorry.) But if there was any question as to whether he should be picked up, Rick Adelman’s heavy reliance on his starters should have been the deciding factor. Thomas entered the starting lineup on Dec. 27 and even though the Kings have pretty much returned to full strength since then (with Bonzi Wells being in and then out again), Thomas has been a mainstay, even with the return of SAR. In 24 games as a starter Thomas has averaged a robust 35.7 mpg and has put up a very impressive line of 12.6/9.7/2.6 with 1.2 steals on 50% shooting. A lot of those numbers came when the Kings were quite depleted, but even over the past six games Thomas is averaging 10.5/8.8/1.7 with 1.7 steals in 35.5 mpg. Not superstar numbers by any means, but numbers that certainly shouldn’t be sitting out on the waiver wire in any decent sized league. Most of what’s been said about Thomas can also be applied to Kevin Martin, who’s been talked about here before. The lesson is that if you have a roster spot to play with and see a situation like this, the reward is certainly worth the limited risk.
Shaq/Tim Duncan Rule
This one’s pretty cut and dry – big men don’t age all that gracefully. Once they’ve peaked, they’ve peaked; it’s hard for them to return to the land of past glories. It’s easy to underestimate the beatings these guys go through on a nightly basis in the league, and then you have to take into account all the extra games they’ve played in the playoffs over the years. Tim Duncan is still a few months away from his 30th birthday, so you might say, “Hey, that’s still pretty young!” But this is his ninth season in the league, and he’s been the main man for each one of those. And you can’t just ignore four years in the ACC before that. It takes its toll. That’s why I wrote this long, convoluted column over the summer explaining why I just wouldn’t feel comfortable taking Duncan with my first pick. It looked like he was ready to prove me wrong early on as he got off to a great start, averaging 21.3/11.7/3.2 with 2.5 blocks on 53% and 78% shooting in November. But it’s all been downhill from there. As of now Duncan is averaging career lows in FG%, blocks and points. His FT% is stuck at a not-crippling-but-certainly-hurting 66%. His rebounds and assists are decent, but considerably off from his peak years. He’ll certainly rebound a bit from his current slump, but it’s time to accept the fact that he’s no longer the fantasy stud that he was.
With Shaq it was a little more obvious, but it’s still worth noting. He looked pretty spry in yesterday’s win over Detroit (speaking of which, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday – those are the days of the week I’ll take Dwyane over LeBron; I’ll still give LeBron one day), going for 31, but we’re more than halfway through the season and that’s his high game to date. This is a guy who averaged 29.7 ppg back in 99-00. As of now Shaq is averaging career lows in rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and points, and his FG% is his lowest since 96-97. Going just by averages – which means his injuries aren’t being held against him – he’s at #87 on the player rater, as he just isn’t dominant enough anymore to make up for his brutal FT%. Yes, in H2H leagues he can still be of great service, but for both of these guys, it’s time to let go. For real. Next person to fall prey? It’s looking like it could very well be KG…
The FBB Rule to End All FBB Rules
Say it along with me – It’s all about the minutes. We say this a lot, but it really can’t be said enough. There are about 50, maybe 75 guys in the league who are legitimately on another level. It’s pretty obvious who these guys are. But everyone else, if you give them the same playing time, they’ll all put up about the same numbers. OK, this isn’t entirely true, but for the most part it works. It’s the idea of replacement level value that those wonderful nerds at Baseball Prospectus talk about all the time. I mean, let’s just look at yesterday’s games for example. Ryan Gomes was an afterthought of an afterthought for the entire season, a rookie who was a second round pick who got into two games in all of January. But with the Boston frontcourt depleted he found himself in the starting lineup and Doc Rivers was feeling lazy, not wanting to substitute, so Gomes ended up playing nearly 44 minutes. How’d he do? Not bad at all – 14 points, 9 boards, 2 steals, 4-of-8 from the field, perfect on 6 attempts from the line. Damien Wilkins showed he had some skills earlier when he got a temporary shot at PG for Seattle. Yesterday he got to fill in at SF for Rashard Lewis. And yes, this was a great matchup, with two high scoring teams and an extra five minutes, allowing Wilkins to play 48, and he responded with 21/10/4 with 2 steals on great shooting. I mean, even to a lesser extent, Charlie Bell was serviceable with his 40 minutes yesterday with 11/4/2 with a 3 and 2 steals. Not great at all, but 2 steals, a 3 and 4 assists are all decent. The minute is mighty.