AJ, I agree with what you say. I think the key is to actually look at the standard deviation of a category. So, while the average number of points per game is equal to 16 and the average number of steals is equal to 1 (or whatever), looking at the number of points or steals at 1 or 2 standard deviations from the average will give you more information. I don’t know the numbers off the top of my head, but I bet you will find that the number of steals per game trails off much more quickly than points per game. What that means is that while, on average, 16 points/game is equal to 1 steal, once you get out to the edges of reality, 32 points/game is equal to 3 steals a game.

This was in the news and notes section for Kobe last night:

Feb 14 Bryant had just 23 points on 6-of-20 shooting, but he had three-three pointers and seven steals.
Recommendation: Seven steals is probably worth 50 or 60 points at least in your standard eight category league, so there’s nothing to complain about here. He also had zero turnovers - for those who play in leagues that count them.

Vlad Rad - if he will ever come around you’ll know soon. He will be well-suited to an up-tempo game with a good point guard, a solid SG who can score, and a stud at the 4-spot. The Clips are the perfect situation for him. He’ll start in place of Maggette for now, and possibly the rest of the way. Maggette’s injury won’t go away until the offseason regardless of rehab, so they’ll need to limit his minutes like Grant Hill these days.

Wilcox - I agree he is like Ely and Swift in good and bad ways. Good raw skills but bad work habits and questionable attitude. He showed us last season that he can put up top 20 stats for a Center when starting. My guess? They’ll experiment with him and Collison starting together. Swift and Petro then make for solid bench players, and they can learn from more established veterans. Wilcox has far more offensive skills than both of the 2 young guys, so the team would be crazy not to try him out at a starting spot. Reggie Evans will get traded before the 23rd, because they’re desperate to bring in a PG behind Ridnour. The hottest rumor on this one has Evans going to the Bobcats, but info has been limited since the trade for Lonny Baxter. He ain’t the answer, so they’ll keep shopping IMO.

Anyway, thoughts on Wilcox … he belongs in that group with Stromile Swift and Melvin Ely, guys who should seemingly be fantasy studs but never get the chance because there’s just something about them as actual basketball players that rubs their coaches the wrong way. Wilcox is a physical specimen, but he’s prone to mental and defensive breakdowns. So at least he should fit in on Seattle. That’s a really crowded front court situation, and I’d think that Collison, Swift and Petro are bigger priorites for the Sonics since they are locked in for longer. But you never know.

D’ya think Chris Wilcox will finally have some value now that he’s been traded to Seattle? I’ve always been a fan of his game and was somewhat baffled by his banishment to the Clipper bench. In those rare games where he was given minutes this year, he’s produced some nice lines.

But the Seattle frontcourt situation he’s landed in isn’t exactly clear: Evans, Collison, and Fortson are all still on the roster. Will Hill give Wilcox some major burn at the 4? Evans, VladRad and Collison were all given their chance and all were found wanting. Maybe Wilcox will step in and get good minutes purely by default.

Despite all the questions, my hunch is that he’ll be a worthwhile pickup. He’s a onetime lottery pick and this is a contract year for him. But I’ll defer the ultimate judgement on the former Terrapin to our esteemed hosts here, who wear their Maryland bias on their sleeves. Undoubtedly they can offer insights into his game that will far exceed my own half-baked analysis of his fantasy potential.

i actually think the 12:1 ratio would be better in judging relative worth of a player. We wouldnt put a player averaging 12 points in out lineup for his points, just as we wouldnt put a guy averaging 1 spg just for his steals. We would however, place a guy averaging 16 ppg in our line up for his points. that being said, i tried a small experiment within our league. I took the ratio between best in points and best in steals, 2nd-best in points and 2nd-best in steals, etc… and the ratio fluctuates from 14.6 to 15.6…

also, we have to think about it in the context of an entire season, not just on a game by game basis. (i guess this applies more to the roto players.) So, while day to day production of steals fluctuates a lot, in the end its the averages that matter. Of course, it is sometimes hard to swallow having to start a guy like childress for the entire season when there are always flash in the pan waiver wire wonders…

the point i was trying to make is that there is some validity to the “luck” factor of getting steals. While I agree with your statement to a point, the standard deviations of points to steals are about 12:1, which is fairly close to the 16:1 ratio we earlier discussed. However, i’m not going to pretend like I know much about this kind of statistical analysis. z-scores and F-tests make me shiver.