What, you thought I’d let DM give out the midseason awards? As if …

Stud of the Year: To the best-performing first-round pick.
Shawn Marion, PHO
And it really isn’t even close. With Amare sidelined, Marion has been forced to pick up his game, and boy, has he ever. His FG% is up to a remarkable 51%, and he’s a legitimate 7-category player. He’s solved his struggles at the line, going from 68% in December to 86% in January. It’s at the point where, if he keeps it up, Marion could be considered for the #1 overall pick next year. Runner-up: LeBron James.

Supporting Stud of the Year: To the best-performing second- or third-round pick.
Rashard Lewis, SEA
Lewis has been the prototypical supporting stud this year. He’s a huge asset in two categories (threes and points), and doesn’t really hurt you anywhere. I’ve been very critical of Lewis in the past because he doesn’t rebound enough to be a good forward, nor does he get many assists, but at the end of the day, he does enough of everything else to give him supporting stud of the year. Runner-up: Chauncey Billups.

Breakout Player of the Year
David West, NOK
Despite the fact that I hate him for what he did to my Wizards on Monday night, West is undoubtedly the breakout player of the year. His per-minute averages haven’t changed all that much, other than points, and he’s a perfect example of why we preach minutes above all else here at FBB. Still, can he maintain those percentages in the long run? Runner-up: Mehmet Okur.

Breakdown Player of the Year: To the premier player who’s lost the most value between draft day and today.
Steve Francis, ORL
Listen, we’ve been through a lot with Steve Francis, starting with his “99.9%” guarantee to return to Maryland for his senior year. Then there was the draft debacle when he practically died on the spot when drafted by Vancouver. Then his clashes with folks in Houston. Then his clashes with Orlando when they traded his buddy Cuttino Mobley. Still, through it all, his numbers stayed OK. But now he’s complaining again, and his suspension earlier this year got him “last straw” status here at FBB. Now he’s basically admitting he’s not playing his best, because of trade rumors, and the last straw was … well, you know. You just can’t trust the Franchise anymore as a stud, and he should be avoided until at least the middle of the third round in fantasy drafts next year. Runner-up: Stephon Marbury.

Leaper of the Year: To the player who’s made the leap to stud status.
Pau Gasol, MEM
Admittedly, this has very little – if anything – to do with Gasol’s play. But when you draft him, you know you’re going to dominate the Beards category. Plus, he’s getting real live stud minutes now that the Hubie experiment is over in Memphis, and that’s allowed him to finally live up to the promise he showed his first two years in the league. The free throws are a worry, but it’s always good to have something to work on. Runner-up: Carmelo Anthony.

Junior Leaper of the Year: To the mid-round pick who’s made his way to supporting stud status.
Samuel Dalembert, PHI
All he needed was someone to believe in him. Now that he’s getting starter’s minutes, he’s turned into a legit 2nd-tier center. His blocks are absolutely incredible, but don’t overlook his respectable FT% for a center. Runner Up: Rasheed Wallace.

About a week ago in the comments section of one of our posts, JM made the following comment: “According to espn.com’s player rater averaging one steal is equivalent to 16 pts, one 3pt = 7 rebs, and one blk = 4 asts.” I thought this was a pretty interesting statement, and I thought it deserved a closer look.

Before I do, though, I’d like to point out to some of our more casual readers that there’s a lot of great stuff going on in the comments section, often better than whatever junk we’re spouting out here in the blog posts. For the full FBB experience, check out what some of our more talkative readers are discussing down there. It’s pretty impressive.

Anyhow, is one steal really worth 16 points? The answer: Yes … but no. Let me explain:

First, let’s discuss how (I would guess) JM came up with this statement, and then back it up a little bit. In order to have roughly no effect on their fantasy value (as in, it’s not a strength nor a weakness, and the player rater gives you a score of 0.0), a player has to have 16 points, or 1 steal. Other quick stat checks seem to back this up. There are 57 guys averaging 16 ppg, but that goes up to 78 if you go down just a bit, to 14 ppg. Meanwhile, 81 players have 1 steal or better. Additionally, if you look at your league’s standings, there is about a 16:1 ratio for most teams’ points and steals – some higher, some lower, but 16:1 is about right.

Of course, there are differences. For example, 25 times this year, a player has snagged 6 or more steals in a game. Nobody has scored 96 points in a game (16 times 6) – in fact, the hell nearly froze over when Kobe scored 81. But nonetheless, I think it’s fair to say that the value of one steal is of about the same value as 16 points, give or take a point or two.

However, here’s where I think the two stats really break apart from each other: Their predictability. When making a move in fantasy basketball, it’s not what have you done … or even what have you done for me lately. The question is, “what are you going to do for me next?” The fantasy owners who are best able to answer this question are going to be the ones on the top of the standings come the end of the year. And while points are pretty predictable, value in steals goes all over the place. Let me prove it to you:

I took last year’s steals leaders (by average), and compared their numbers to how they’re doing this year. The change was all over the board. Larry Hughes, Mike Bibby, Lebron James and Ruben Patterson were the biggest droppers, losing 1.39, 0.65, 0.61 and 0.61 steals per game, respectively. The biggest gains to be had were by Gerald Wallace (0.73), Brevin Knight (0.48) and Dwyane Wade (0.39). Now keep in mind, we’ve said that one steal is equal in value to sixteen points. So, Mike Bibby’s 0.65 drop in steals is really the equivalent of dropping 10.4 points, which is a pretty improbable number. What’s so confounding with steals is that other than Hughes, none of these guys switched teams in the offseason. None of them have seen drastic changes in minutes, either. Steals are just quite simply a stat that is tough to predict. In fact, the top 20 in steals last year saw their per-game numbers change (either going higher or lower) by an average of 0.39 steals (the equivalent of 6.25 “points”) from last year to this.

On the other side of the spectrum, we’ve got points. The top 20 in points last year (with the exception of Amare Stoudamire) have been remarkably consistent. The biggest changes have been Kobe Bryant (+7.6), Carmelo Anthony (+5.1), and Steve Francis (-4.9). What’s more, you can explain most of the changes: Kobe went crazy, and so did Stevie, just in opposite directions. On a whole, the top 20 in points saw their numbers change by an average of 2.56 points, just about a third of the variability of steals.

So what have we learned here today? In past value, sure, a steal is worth 16 points. But if you’re looking forward to what a guy will do in future games, steals are just SO much harder to predict that you can’t really count on them, where as scorers will find their points, one way or another. But I think this could be a major reason why points are “overvalued” while defensive numbers are slightly undervalued - their consistency from one year (heck, even one month) to the next. Thoughts?

As we get into the second half of another fantasy basketball season, it’s always a good idea to stop and look at some lessons we’ve learned. These aren’t necessarily lessons about certain players, but more general trends that seem to surface every year that astute players should be aware of. So let’s look at a few and how they relate to this season.

Kenny Thomas Rule
This one’s actually a combination of two rules: 1) A “temporary fill in” is often much more than that, and 2) a “temporary fill in” on a team where the coach rides his starters is even better. As of Christmas, Kenny Thomas was entirely irrelevant for fantasy purposes. He saw 25 minutes of action just once on the season up to that point and had season highs of 11 points and 8 rebounds. But then Shareef Abdur-Rahim went down with an injury and Thomas found himself in the starting lineup. At first it was unclear how long Abdur-Rahim would be out, and this might have kept some people doubting Thomas’s ability to help a team long term. (I’m sorry. Very, very sorry.) But if there was any question as to whether he should be picked up, Rick Adelman’s heavy reliance on his starters should have been the deciding factor. Thomas entered the starting lineup on Dec. 27 and even though the Kings have pretty much returned to full strength since then (with Bonzi Wells being in and then out again), Thomas has been a mainstay, even with the return of SAR. In 24 games as a starter Thomas has averaged a robust 35.7 mpg and has put up a very impressive line of 12.6/9.7/2.6 with 1.2 steals on 50% shooting. A lot of those numbers came when the Kings were quite depleted, but even over the past six games Thomas is averaging 10.5/8.8/1.7 with 1.7 steals in 35.5 mpg. Not superstar numbers by any means, but numbers that certainly shouldn’t be sitting out on the waiver wire in any decent sized league. Most of what’s been said about Thomas can also be applied to Kevin Martin, who’s been talked about here before. The lesson is that if you have a roster spot to play with and see a situation like this, the reward is certainly worth the limited risk.

Shaq/Tim Duncan Rule
This one’s pretty cut and dry – big men don’t age all that gracefully. Once they’ve peaked, they’ve peaked; it’s hard for them to return to the land of past glories. It’s easy to underestimate the beatings these guys go through on a nightly basis in the league, and then you have to take into account all the extra games they’ve played in the playoffs over the years. Tim Duncan is still a few months away from his 30th birthday, so you might say, “Hey, that’s still pretty young!” But this is his ninth season in the league, and he’s been the main man for each one of those. And you can’t just ignore four years in the ACC before that. It takes its toll. That’s why I wrote this long, convoluted column over the summer explaining why I just wouldn’t feel comfortable taking Duncan with my first pick. It looked like he was ready to prove me wrong early on as he got off to a great start, averaging 21.3/11.7/3.2 with 2.5 blocks on 53% and 78% shooting in November. But it’s all been downhill from there. As of now Duncan is averaging career lows in FG%, blocks and points. His FT% is stuck at a not-crippling-but-certainly-hurting 66%. His rebounds and assists are decent, but considerably off from his peak years. He’ll certainly rebound a bit from his current slump, but it’s time to accept the fact that he’s no longer the fantasy stud that he was.

With Shaq it was a little more obvious, but it’s still worth noting. He looked pretty spry in yesterday’s win over Detroit (speaking of which, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday – those are the days of the week I’ll take Dwyane over LeBron; I’ll still give LeBron one day), going for 31, but we’re more than halfway through the season and that’s his high game to date. This is a guy who averaged 29.7 ppg back in 99-00. As of now Shaq is averaging career lows in rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and points, and his FG% is his lowest since 96-97. Going just by averages – which means his injuries aren’t being held against him – he’s at #87 on the player rater, as he just isn’t dominant enough anymore to make up for his brutal FT%. Yes, in H2H leagues he can still be of great service, but for both of these guys, it’s time to let go. For real. Next person to fall prey? It’s looking like it could very well be KG…

The FBB Rule to End All FBB Rules
Say it along with me – It’s all about the minutes. We say this a lot, but it really can’t be said enough. There are about 50, maybe 75 guys in the league who are legitimately on another level. It’s pretty obvious who these guys are. But everyone else, if you give them the same playing time, they’ll all put up about the same numbers. OK, this isn’t entirely true, but for the most part it works. It’s the idea of replacement level value that those wonderful nerds at Baseball Prospectus talk about all the time. I mean, let’s just look at yesterday’s games for example. Ryan Gomes was an afterthought of an afterthought for the entire season, a rookie who was a second round pick who got into two games in all of January. But with the Boston frontcourt depleted he found himself in the starting lineup and Doc Rivers was feeling lazy, not wanting to substitute, so Gomes ended up playing nearly 44 minutes. How’d he do? Not bad at all – 14 points, 9 boards, 2 steals, 4-of-8 from the field, perfect on 6 attempts from the line. Damien Wilkins showed he had some skills earlier when he got a temporary shot at PG for Seattle. Yesterday he got to fill in at SF for Rashard Lewis. And yes, this was a great matchup, with two high scoring teams and an extra five minutes, allowing Wilkins to play 48, and he responded with 21/10/4 with 2 steals on great shooting. I mean, even to a lesser extent, Charlie Bell was serviceable with his 40 minutes yesterday with 11/4/2 with a 3 and 2 steals. Not great at all, but 2 steals, a 3 and 4 assists are all decent. The minute is mighty.

Happy Friday everyone. Ok, so we got the shortest week of the season coming up before the All-Star festivities begin in Houston next weekend. Most teams are playing two games but there are a handful that hit the hardwood just once next week. Here’s a look at 2/13-2/19.

Two Games: Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Golden State, Houston, LAC, LAL, Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Orleans, New York, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, Sacramento, San Antonio, Seattle, Toronto, Washington.
One Game: Atlanta, Boston, Denver, Detroit, Indiana, Utah.

You should pay special attention to matchups and games played this week because the shortage of games means each contest is that much more important. I would recommend benching every one of your guys playing just one game this week, except for maybe Paul Pierce and AK-47. Yes, other teams may ONLY have one more game, but that is really TWICE as much action. So this week may be a rare instance where you should actually consider benching the likes of Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony in favor of a Luke Ridnour or Jumaine Jones.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Kevin Martin, SG – Well it looks like Bonzi Wells may have returned to action a little early reinjuring his groin in just his second game back, an injury that had already kept him out for more than a month. Sacramento will likely keep Bonzi on the bench until at least after the All-star break to ensure that he is completely recovered. In the meantime, K-Mart II has stepped right back into the starting lineup and is playing exceptionally well lately. In three games since Wells re-aggravated his crotch, Martin has been lightin’ it up with 22/6/2 on 71% shooting and a whopping 3.3 treys per night! It’s hard to tell how long Bonzi will be sidelined, but you should keep Kevin Martin in your lineups as long as he’s starting for the Kings.

Jumaine Jones, SF – Another example of a player you should take advantage of while you can. It’s like your cell phone minutes: you gotta use them or lose them (note: Cingular’s rollover plan does not apply in this analogy). Jones has been a very nice fantasy force the last couple weeks while Gerald Wallace has been out. 15/7/1 with 2.4 threes and 1.4 steals over his last ten games ain’t too shabby for an everyday starter, let alone a fill-in. And holy cow! Jones grabbed an impressive 14 boards (career high?) in a win over Philly the other night. Way to clean that glass Jumaine. Despite Charlotte’s league worst 14-36 record and countless injuries, they’ve managed to always have a handful of players with plenty of fantasy value (Wallace, Knight, Okafor, Felton, Ely, and even Brezec & Rush have all been contributors when healthy and getting minutes). You can now add J.J. to that list of “better than serviceable” Charlotte Bobcats. He’s got two home games next week.

Luke Ridnour, PG – It’s been an up and down season for the former Oregon Duck, but Luke is playing well right now and appears primed for a solid second half this season. He is averaging 14.4/3.3/7.4 and 2 thefts in seven games over the last couple weeks. Hopefully he can stay consistent and get back to hitting about 1 three-pointer a night to help his owners land a spot in their H2H playoffs. He’s the starting PG for a Seattle team that scores 102 points a game. Don’t hesitate, plug him in.

Brian Cook, PF – He was inserted into the Lakers’ starting lineup earlier this week when Chris Mihm was forced to sit with a shoulder injury and he has been nothing short of spectacular in three starts: 23/7/1 with 2 trifectas on 66% shooting from the floor. Cook is not your prototypical power forward, in that he is more of finesse player who usually settles for jump shots rather than posting up. Plus, despite his 6’10 frame he is a mediocre rebounder at best. Nonetheless, he’s an excellent three-point shooter, he’s hot right now and getting plenty of minutes… so get him in your lineups for a couple of games next week.

Now Let’s talk a little about the NBA All-Star break. First of all, it is absolute monkeyshine that Wizards’ PG Gilbert Arenas got left off the Eastern Conference All-Star team. What kind of poppycock is this? The man is having the best season of his young career, he is 4th in the league in scoring (28.2 ppg), and he has his team over .500 and in the middle of the playoff hunt. What more does he have to do? Maybe he could give fans the shirt right off his back. Oh wait, he already does that… after every game. His fantasy owners’ votes alone should have been enough to propel Gil into the All-star game. Everyone always complains about various Pro Bowl/All-star ‘snubs’ each year, but this one truly is a classic case of tomfoolery. It’s not like I’m griping and making a case that Redskins’ QB Mark Brunell should be in this weekend’s NFL Pro Bowl game, but Arenas is definitely an all-pro baller in the NBA. Enough said.

How about the slam-dunk contest? Last year was one of the best competitions ever with the Birdman’s 9 missed dunks, Josh Smith’s tribute to Dominique, and Stoudemire/Nash’s creative antics reviving the excitement that used to surround the event in its earlier days. Next weekend Atlanta’s Josh Smith has the courage to return and defend his dunk title and he faces some formidable opponents in Andre Iguodala, Hakim Warrick, and Nate Robinson. The odds-makers favor Smith to repeat, but let’s take a look at the odds to win and the contestants’ specs:
1. Josh Smith, G/F – 7 to 5 odds: 20 years old, 6’9, 225 lbs
2. Nate Robinson, PG – 11 to 5 odds: 22 years old, 5’9, 180 lbs
3. Andre Iguodala, G/F – 12 to 5 odds: 22 years old, 6’6, 207 lbs
4. Hakim Warrick, F – 4 to 1 odds: 23 years old, 6’9, 219 lbs
Personally, I like either Nate Robinson (he’ll surely earn brownie points for his diminutive stature) or Iggy to take the trophy. You can’t discount high-flying Warrick either… he’s the underdog mostly due to name recognition. Who’s your pick to win this year’s Slam Dunk Contest?

One of my favorite columns to write during the second half of last season was Friday Foreigners, where I took a look at players that had weird combinations of consonants and vowels and smooth looking jumpshots. Well, PR handles Fridays now, so let’s move it up a day. Will it become a regular feature? Who knows? I sort of stopped doing the whole point guard thing, just because I sort of grew tired of it. And I figured you all got the point. So instead, let’s take a look at some fer’ners! Also, apologies for the late posting – I was at work until 2 a.m. last night for reasons I’d rather not get into.

Sasha Pavlovic
The Cavs backcourt has obviously seen better days. Larry Hughes has been out for a while, Damon Jones was given every chance to take the starting SG spot and did nothing with it, and Ira Newble has some weird X-Files-esque growth on his face. You know things are bad when Eric Snow is the stabilizing force in the backcourt. Emerging from the mess is third year swingman Pavlovic. Last night marked his 11th consecutive start and he’s starting to get into a minor groove. Last night marked the fourth time in five games that he’s reached double digits in scoring, as he’s averaging 12/3.6/1.6 in that span. Nothing too impressive, obviously, but he’s putting in 2 3s per game, which gives him some marginal value. The fact that he has just 10 steals in nearly 500 minutes this season isn’t a good sign, but his shooting has consistently improved through his three seasons. Right now Pavlovic is just one of the many players in the league who can be a serviceable fill-in when he gets 30+ minutes a game, the kind of guy who might help you hold steady and offer help in a single category.

Mickael Pietrus
The Flying Frenchman has been a popular pickup lately, as he has recently entered the starting lineup for the Warriors. The early results are pretty encouraging, as in seven starts he’s averaging 15.1/5.3/1.9 with 1.9 3s and 1.1 steals. His percentages on the season are pretty awful, but as a starter he’s at 46% from the field and 73% from the line, which are very respectable. His first few starts were in place of Jason Richardson, but with J-Rich back Pietrus has taken Mike Dunleavy’s spot in the lineup, and it’s about time. Still, his numbers might have some people set up for a let down. Look at the scores of the past two games the Warriors have played – they’ve racked up a total 246 points in those contests. That’s a whole lot of points, to be sure. Once the team starts falling back to its average of a little less than 100, Pietrus will see a slight drop. The best thing for Pietrus’s value would for the Warriors to go small ball like they did at the end of last year. But the recent semi-emergence of Andris Biedrins hasn’t made this entirely possible. Both Adonal Foyle and Ike Diogu are becoming afterthoughts, but is getting – and earning – around 20 mpg. He’s not doing much more than a DeSagana Diop impersonation for the most part, but as we know, he’s got skills. Still, back to Pietrus, I’m about ready to put him into the starting lineup. My biggest worry was his percentages and that’s still a concern, especially from the line, as he’s shown bizarre inconsistency, shooting 63% in November, 44% in January and now 83% so far in February, so you really don’t know what to expect there. Hopefully he can get enough 3s and steals to balance out any possible problems there.

Hedo Turkoglu
Don’t look now, but Turkoglu is turning into an actual, legit reliable fantasy player. Granted, it’s taken three or four injuries to key players, and he’s still prone to disappear (check his 4-point game against the Wiz on Monday), but Turkoglu has unquestionably been helping teams lately, checking in at a solid #62 on the Player Rater. With Grant Hill and Jameer Nelson out and Steve Francis going through a prolonged rough stretch, Hedo and Dwight Howard have been the ones driving the Magic offense. Which does explain why the team has lost 6 of 7 games, I suppose. The most surprising aspect of Turkoglu’s emergence is that his value isn’t coming strictly from 3s. In the past it’s looked like he’s been a one-trick pony who if he wasn’t hitting 3s was going to be worthless. Instead, he’s shortened up his game, starting taking the ball to the basket and is becoming a more efficient scorer. It hasn’t necessarily helped his FG%, but he’s managed to get to the line at least 6 times in 7 of the last 11 games and the man hits his free throws. He’s also started using his size – he’s 6’10” remember – and is hitting the boards at a reasonable rate. The assists are a nice bonus, too, but it all goes back to the minutes – he’s averaging 41+ over the past 10 games. Minutes equals value, folks. It’s as simple as that. Will he be able to keep this up? Well, no, probably not. But as long as he stays on the court, he should stay in your lineup.

Marko Jaric
I hate him. He should probably die. That is all.

It’s been about a month and a half since we checked in on this year’s rookies. There are two developments that will go on in the next few weeks that will have drastic effect on rookies. One is a negative: the vaunted “rookie wall” that threatens to hurt rookie numbers across the board. The actual effect of the rookie wall isn’t too clear, and it’s not definitely going to affect anyone in particular, but it’s something to think about. The other development is a positive: with a half a season under their belt, some rooks are going to start figuring out the game, force their way onto the court, and start putting up fantasy-starter-like numbers (see Raymond Felton as a perfect example). Anyhow, let’s go down the list:

Plug n’ Play

Andrew Bogut – Despite Joe Smith’s return to the court, Bogut is still a dependable second center in almost all formats. He doesn’t do anything particularly well other than shoot from the field (53%), but he does chip in enough points, boards, steals and blocks to be a fixture in your lineup.

Chris Paul – He’s the ROY. He’s getting consideration for the All-Star Game (which he shouldn’t, but that’s another story). Needless to say, he’s a great play and if you drafted him this year, odds are you got a steal. However, he’s also a classic candidate for the “rookie wall” effect, as he’s played major minutes all year, he’s small, and he’s charging all over the court at 100 mph every game.

Channing Frye – He’s in Plug n’ Play, but just barely. Less Antonio Davis means the potential for more minutes for Channing, but he’s just not earning them – his shooting is down since the new year and he’s still struggling to top 20 mpg. If he didn’t qualify at Center, he wouldn’t be here.

Charlie Villanueva – We’ve been hyping him since day one, and he’s starting to show some returns. Since the Rose trade, he’s put up 17/7.8 with 2.8 3’s and 1 block, starting numbers in any format. He’s a possible Donyell Marshall clone – and I mean that in a good way. But we’ll see how Antonio Davis cuts into his PT.

Raymond Felton – Felton is a brand new FBB favorite. He starting getting it together in January, and now in February he’s got 20/6.3/8 with 2 3’s and 2 steals. He’s also playing well alongside Brevin Knight, and while we don’t think he’ll maintain these numbers, he should put up at least 15/4/6 with a steal and a three.

Just Not There – Yet.

Sarunas Jasekivicius – I think it’s safe to leave Sarunas on the waiver wire at this point. We’ve waited all year to see him get starter’s minutes, but for whatever reason, he hasn’t gotten them. When Jamaal Tinsley went down with an injury (or eight), the minutes went to Anthony Johnson – not exactly a ringing endorsement for the ex-Terp. Still, we’ll keep him in this category.

Danny Granger – He’s very close to being a Plug n’ Play. In fact, I’m sure I’ll get a lot of flack for this. His last five games have been extremely encouraging, but let’s see him keep it up for another week or two.

Marvin Williams – I don’t think he’ll ever justify being drafted ahead of Chris Paul, but I’ve been impressed with Williams of late. He’s quite simply still learning to play the game. But his athleticism is unquestioned, his improvement has been steady, and he’ll be worth a late-round flyer next year. He’s no Darko.

Nate Robinson – If he can’t get minutes under Larry Brown with Stephon Marbury out, I don’t see any reason why he’ll get any sort of reliable minutes over the rest of the year. If he gets traded, though, there’s always a chance.

Nice Try - Maybe Next Year

Ike Diogu – Last month’s hot pickup is this month’s hot drop. He’s got promise, just not for this year.

Jarrett Jack – Listen – if you try and take minutes from our boy Steve Blake, you’re in for a rude awakening. Still, Jack has played very well and could be a nice fantasy player in the future.

Deron Williams – Milt Palacio? Really? Still probably worth a roster spot – if you’ve got room on your bench.

Luther Head – Last month’s hot pick … oh wait, I already used that line.

Salim Stoudamire – He’s not gonna get the minutes he needs to be productive, but he’s got Allan Houston-esque potential down the line.

Already Maxed Out

Jose Calderon – He’s a backup point guard on a poor NBA team. I don’t think there’s any reason to think he’ll be more than a complimentary piece this year, or even in later years.

If there’s one thing that we’re terrible at here at FBB, it’s predicting NBA trades. Still, that doesn’t mean we don’t have our wish list of guys we’d like to see switch teams. Here are three of them. Who would YOU like to see dealt?

1. Stephon Marbury. Full disclosure: I’ve been a Marbury owner all year. But that doesn’t mean I can just stand by and watch his value drop without wishing he would be traded. When you look at it, though, his numbers aren’t all that down. Sure his 18.2 ppg are his lowest in 9 years, but it’s not that far off his 20.4 career average. Yes, his 6.9 apg are a career low, but it’s not all that bad. Still, they’re not the only problems. His steals, percentages, and most of all, his threes are down from last year.

My main problem is with the threes. The Knicks were expected to be among the leaders in 3PA this year after adding known chucker Quentin Richardson to Marbury and Jamal Crawford. But no! Larry Brown has all but eliminated three pointers from the Knicks system, as th ey’re actually putting up the third-least three’s in the league. All three of these guys have cut their 3PA in half, seriously hurting all of their value. Meanwhile, Marbury is stewing, injured (probably), and clearly unhappy, while the Knicks just added another guy who needs the ball all the time (Jalen Rose). This isn’t good for anyone – the Knicks, Marbury, or his fantasy owners. PLEASE trade Steph.

2. Theo Ratliff. Now, I know, his contract (11.6M each of the next two years) makes him nearly impossible to deal. But I’m not so much concerned with Theo getting more time – I’m interested in seeing Joel Przybilla get about 10 more mpg, which just isn’t happening with Ratliff on his back. Przybilla was extremely overvalued by many fantasy players heading into this year, and hit the waiver wires in many leagues as he wasn’t quite able to live up to his big surge late last year.

Still, his problem hasn’t been production as much as it’s been minutes. His per 35 minute stats - 9.1/9.7 with 3.5 blocks – are pretty similar to what Sam Dalembert has been doing in his breakout year with the Sixers. The problem hasn’t been foul trouble – his 2.7 fouls are pretty reasonable for a center and actually lower than last year’s 3.1. The only reason I can see for the Trail Blazers to hold back on Przybilla is because they’re paying Ratliff so much freaking money, they’ve got to play him. Free the Perz! PLEASE trade Theo.

3. Andres Nocioni. Nocioni has the potential to be an FBB fave, he just doesn’t get enough minutes to really have an impact. Part of the problem has been foul trouble – for example, he picked up 5 in just 21 minutes against the Hawks last week, and fouled out against Denver in just 18 minutes a few weeks back. But the other problem has been crazy Scott Skiles’ crazy lineup.

Admittedly, Skiles is just working with the hand he’s dealt. Of his 10 players who get consistent playing time, just three (Othella Harrington, Nocioni, and Jannero Pargo) are over 25 years old, and only Harrington and Tyson Chandler have played in the NBA for 4 or more years. There’s just a lot of talent in Chicago that hasn’t been defined yet, and Skiles is still trying to figure out what he’s got.

Nonetheless, fantasy owners don’t have time for patience. And at some point, Skiles and the GM Jim Paxson have to pick who’s going to be worth playing 35 minutes – and who’s going to get you some nice value in the trade market. We vote for packaging Nocioni with another player from their rotation (Mike Sweetney?) for a nice, bigger piece to their puzzle. PLEASE trade Andres.

I’m stealing BV’s thunder because I’ve always wanted to do one of these. As a special bonus, I’m leaving spot #20 open so you can decide who gets the call there.

1. Shawn Marion – Time to face the truth and accept the fact that The Matrix is the biggest fantasy stud there is. He simply has no weaknesses, never misses any action and puts up huge numbers on the league’s highest scoring team.

2. LeBron James – Expecting a huge second half from LBJ as he looks to singlehandedly get his team into the playoffs – and secure homecourt advantage in the first round.

3. Kevin Garnett – His days as the game’s clearcut #1 – or even #1 at all – are over. But you’d still be hard pressed to find someone (besides the two above) with better well-rounded games.

4. Kobe Bryant – I for one fully expect the tear to continue throughout the season as Kobe tries to will the Lakers into the playoffs and top MJ’s highest single season scoring average (37.1).

5. Elton Brand – His total dominance in FG%, blocks and rebounds puts him a cut above the players just below; proving that injuries from 02-03 and 03-04 were indeed flukes.

6. Dirk Nowitzki – With Dallas basically at full strength, he’s finding that there aren’t as many numbers to go around; solid play of both Diop and Dampier is killing his boards.

7. Steve Nash – Never misses a beat and is just so utterly dominant in assists that owners can be creative in filling out the rest of their roster.

8. Dwyane Wade – Tendency to get just a bit banged up is the only thing keeping him out of the top five; who cares about the lack of 3s as long as he shoots 49% on 19 shots per game as a guard (not to mention 2 steals per contest).

9. Gilbert Arenas – He gets the nod over AI solely because of his durability; completely lost his three-point stroke in January, but get ready for a barrage this month.

10. Allen Iverson – His owners knew an injury was coming and can’t be surprised if he sits out a few more contests as the season wears on.

11. Tracy McGrady – Shooting has been downright putrid lately, but he’s one of the few players capable of carrying a team when he’s at his best.

12. Andrei Kirilenko – Seeing absolutely huge minutes, which is always a worry on Utah; steals/blocks dominance is truly unique.

13. Ray Allen – Was overrated last year, but is underrated this year; hitting 3s at a ridiculous rate and averaging a career high in steals, which is quite rare for a player in his 10th year.

14. Paul Pierce – Early returns from Davis/Szczerbiak trade aren’t too hot; he’s looking to score a whole lot more and his numbers – not just FG% — are suffering.

15. Jason Kidd – Getting better as the season progresses, which is a great sign from an aging player.

16. Chris Bosh – Center eligibility combined with incredibly consistent day-to-day production and the clear #1 role on his team make him a true stud.

17. Tim Duncan – The numbers can’t support putting him any higher, and honestly, even this might be high.

18. Marcus Camby – Yes, he’s already been injured since his latest return, but his 21/11/3 with a steal and 4 blocks is a line he’s capable of putting up every night; for teams desperate to move up, he’s worth taking a chance on.

19. Chris Paul – Going with the youth over the vet; every time you expect him to slow down (rookie wall, thumb injury) he bounces back stronger than ever.

20. ???????

The NBA’s last full week before the All-Star Break. Here’s a look at 2/6-2/12.

Four Games: Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Denver, Detroit, Golden State, Houston, LAC, Memphis, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Orleans, New York, Orlando, Sacramento, Seattle, Washington.
Three Games:Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Indiana, LAL, Miami, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, San Antonio, Toronto, Utah.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Kenyon Martin, PF – K-Mart has recovered from bankruptcy and is back in business! 18/9/1, 1.2stls, 1.4blks, 51%FG, 80%FT over his last 10 games. Those are the elusive numbers that his owners were expecting when they drafted Martin. It’s hard to blame those (myself included) that gave up on him before his recent surge, but he is paying dividends for those who were willing to take a chance on him. Camby’s return may cut into his numbers slightly, but as frail as they’ve both been, there’s no telling how long either will remain healthy. K-Mart is a must-start right now and he has four great matchups next week (@GS, CHI, DAL, @SEA).

Mark Blount, C – Blount has always been more shwag than dank as far as big men go, but his change of address may be exactly what he needed. Eddie Griffin is currently starting at center for the Timberwolves, but Blount has been coming off the bench and outplaying him the last three games (14/7/1, 1stl, 2blks, 68%FG). Mark should find himself in the starting lineup in no time. He is a smart play this week with some friendly matchups (@PHO, CLE, UTA, NOK).

Bobby Simmons, G/F – He has been disappointing this season for sure, but the former Wizard has turned it up lately for a Milwaukee team dealing with some injuries. Yet another swingman to add to DM’s list, Simmons has put up 17/4/2 and over 2 rainmakers a night on 57% shooting the last two weeks. You gotta play the hot hand with four games coming up next week.

Jamaal Magloire, C – Magloire is a consistent (yawn) fantasy producer at the five, but he is still killing his owners with atrocious foul shooting this season (54%). It’s hard to explain the sudden drop this year; maybe it has something to do with his new environment/too much Milwaukee’s Best Ice or something. Perhaps all he needs is a new nickname to help elevate his unexciting play and FT%. J-Mag? Jam Master Mags? Jam ‘Lore? Sorry, I’ll stop that now. The FT% is less of a drag in H2H leagues, plus his 11/13/1 and a swat per game over his last seven have been nice. Jammin’ Jamaal (YES!) will be a solid contributor with four contests this week.

Chucky Atkins, PG – How many grown men do you know named “Chucky”? Most of us hear the name and think either, “psycho homicidal doll” or “giant rat that serves up pizza and tokens to kids.” Well this Chucky, after being dumped by Washington, was picked up by Memphis and handed a starting gig as the team’s floor leader. Atkins has scored 37 total points and hit 5 from behind the arc in his first two starts for the Grizzlies. He seems to be the answer they’ve been looking for ever since Stoudamire went down with a season ending injury. Bobby Jackson had a decent run as a starter, but now returns to the bench. Atkins is an excellent pickup right now, especially if you’re looking for some 3-point help. Plug him into your lineups with confidence this week.

Andris Biedrins, F/C – 12/8.5/2.5 over last two games. The 19 year-old Latvian has gotten more minutes than Foyle and Diogu combined over that span. Warriors do hit the hardwood four times next week, so if you’re desperate at center or if you’re feelin’ lucky you could take a shot with him.

Could be some tough decisions to make regarding studs listed as “day-to-day.” Do you bench AI (sprained ankle)? J-Rich (back)? Camby (strained shoulder)? Well it depends on the updated injury reports of course, and what your other options are. I would probably NOT start John Salmons over Iverson, because if AI were to return you’d really get burned. But a Bobby Simmons-type, who is already scheduled for an extra game (4 games rather than 3 or less) and is guaranteed playing time, would be a much safer bet.
You also have to take a look at your H2H opponent and see where their strengths/weaknesses are. If you see that your opponent is starting 4 centers (who will block plenty of shots) and you only have two shot blockers on your entire roster, you probably want to consider punting the category in order to ensure winning FT%, pts, assists, threes, stls, etc. So the whole idea of ‘punting’ or forfeiting a particular category can be a regular strategy that may change from week-to-week depending on your H2H matchup.

Other notes:
Chandler = BIG second half
Jefferson > Perkins… worth the risk, especially if you got a lot of ground to make up in your league (like me).

Who are your picks for breakout candidates the second-half of the season?

Bench spots. They’re not very exciting. Some people ignore them. But they shouldn’t. Injuries happen. A lot. Depth is key. But it’s good to have a variety of types of players on your bench. Let’s take a look at some of those types.

The Unexciting Fill-In
It’s never a bad idea to use one of your bench spots on someone who is a pretty boring player with not much upside, but if you were forced to start him, he’d at least help you hold your ground. These are usually going to be older players whose best years are behind them, who aren’t too intriguing to most people in the league. Some possibilities:

James Posey – For all the minutes he gets, he should really be putting up better numbers. He averaged nearly 33 mpg in January, but was only able to put up a line of 9.1/5.7/1.3, but he added 2.5 3s and 1.1 steals. Those 3s alone make him valuable, even though he’s a crippling FG% guy.

P.J. Brown – Another totally unexciting player who can help hold down the fort in times of great distress. Brown’s numbers continue to decline just a bit, but he’s still close to 10 and 8 with solid percentages and not complete zeros in steals and blocks.

Smush Parker – His January numbers – 12/3/3.5 with 1.4 3s and 1.7 steals on 45% shooting actually make him a very worthwhile starter in most leagues. Because of his lack of game-to-game consistency, he’s best suited to the super-sub role for teams looking to actually win their league.

The Flavor of the Week
There’s nothing wrong with taking a chance on the guy with the temporary hot hand, but you probably don’t want to get too carried away with these guys. More often than not it will just be a flash in the pan, but sometimes you have to try to catch lightning in a bottle and roll with it. Some current possibilities here:

Qyntel Woods – I actually picked up Woods the other night when he had a strong game coming off missing a game with an injury. That’s always a good sign for me. I’m not sure if any of you bet on horses at all, but whenever I see a horse that has a good race coming off a layoff, I’ll always pay extra attention to him, same sort of theory in place. The Knicks are obviously a fantasy wasteland, and even though I sort of bought into bublitchki’s claim that Larry Brown loves Qyntel Woods like the pitbull abusing son he never had and he wants him to succeed with all his heart, I mean, people said the same thing about David Lee a few weeks ago and now he’s DNP-CD. Still, a three-game stretch of nearly 17/8/1 with good steals and 3s is hard to ignore. Worth a shot.

Marcus Banks – His 9/1/2 last night was nowhere near as impressive as his 20/1/6 debut with the Wolves, but it was important to note that he saw 31 minutes of action. I’m a Marko Jaric owner, and for the third season in a row, I’ve given up on him. I still haven’t dropped him, but man am I ready. All the usual caveats of bench players apply to Banks, but it might be worth taking a shot to see if he can unseat Marko.

The Temporary Fill-In
BV talked about this a bit yesterday in his column. These guys differ from the above category because they clearly are only going to have value for as long as the person they are filling in for is hurt. But if there’s one thing that’s been stressed here since FBB’s beginnings, it’s that more often than not, day-to-day means a week. We’re seeing that right now with guys like Allen Iverson and Jason Richardson. Some names…

John Salmons – He was worth consideration since he took over Kyle Korver’s spot in the starting lineup, but when AI is out, Salmons is money. This is how it works in Philly. Willie Greene filled the role last year, and now it’s Salmons’ turn. In three games sans AI, he’s been good for 18/8.3/5.7 with 2 steals, which is obviously just fantastic. Iverson is scheduled to miss at least one more game, and you know that he’s one of the more fragile superstars in the league.

Mickael Pietrus – It’s really all about the PT with these swingmen types. Give just about any swingman in the league 35 minutes and he’ll put up decent numbers. That’s how it works. In the Flying Frenchman’s three starts he’s put up a line of 16.3/6/2 with 2 3s per game. Solid stuff. Pietrus will never be a fantasy star until he improves his dreadful percentages – not to mention finds some consistent PT – but for a few games he’s not bad.

Fred Jones – What do you know, another swingman who can put up numbers when given the chance. Hey, is it just me or has Indiana had some bad luck over the past few seasons? Has anyone else noticed that? Anyway, Jones put up some big numbers last year when he was one of the team’s six players in uniform, and if Stephen Jackson is going to miss some

The Upsiders
Pretty self explanatory. Mostly young guys who are inconsistent and just waiting for that extended opportunity to show what they can do. Because of their upside, it’s easy to get excited and throw them into the lineup before they really belong.

Danny Granger – With Peja Stojakovic in town, the impressive looking rookie has lost his starting spot, but with the rest of the Pacers starters likely to come down with Bubonic Plague in the coming weeks, Granger could still have some value. He’s looking like a Shane Battier-type, one of those guys that will give you solid, but not overwhelming numbers in 3s, steals and blocks. The type of guys who can still have value even on an off night.

Charlie Villanueva – I grabbed CV after BV dropped him when I dropped B-Jax after he lost his starting job to CA. Sorry, enough of that. Anyway, I since dropped him for Woods, then watched Charlie put up one of his great lines last night. The main problem I see with him is that Sam Mitchell has shaken up his starting lineup plenty this year, but CV has never been put in there. But if Jalen Rose gets dealt or someone gets hurt, he might see his chance.

Al Jefferson – PR and I are gonna have a rumble one of these days of Jefferson. Like I said earlier in the week, he’s fine if you park him on your bench in the role of The Upsider. Yes, his numbers the past few games have been borderline starter-worthy, but it’s tough for anyone to continue to put up those numbers consistently with just 25 minutes per game. The total crappiness of the bottom the East is sort of working against Jefferson because the Celtics are nominally still in the race to get obliterated by the Heat or Pistons in the first round. Danny Ainge should fire Doc Rivers, hire someone who will start Jefferson alongside Perkins, Wally, Pierce and West and just see what they have. If that happens, I will stop all Jefferson bashing and jump on the bandwagon. Until then? Park him on the bench and hope for good thing.