We can all agree that the trade deadline week was a dud. There were some nice deals made in the weeks leading up to it, but deadline day itself was a whole lot of nothing. Still, we thought a few guys who switched cities would eventually have some increased value and last night seemed to signal that the time is now for two of those guys – Ronald “Flip” Murray and Ruben “I can’t retaliate because I’m on probation, so I would get in trouble” Patterson. Who’s the better bet from here on out? Let’s investigate.
A few days ago I expressed my skepticism on Flip Murray. I said that the only category he’d be consistent in would be FG%, and that wasn’t a good thing. He didn’t let me down by shooting 2-for-12 that night, but in his other two most recent games he’s shot 16-for-29. Another reason I wasn’t sold on him was that there were three guys fighting for PT at the SG position: Flip, Sasha Pavlovic and Damon Jones. But it seems that in just a week’s time Murray has established himself as the man at the position. After starting 19 straight games – during which the team went 12-7, it should be pointed out – Pavlovic has become completely irrelevant, playing just 13 minutes in the past two games. And Damon Jones … it just isn’t happening for Damon Jones this year. The bottom line is this – Flip has played 84 minutes over the past two games. It is near impossible to get that much PT and not have considerable fantasy value. I still maintain that he’s going to do some serious damage to your FG% — he’s shooting a nice 45.5% this season, but is a career 40.5% shooter. But if you’ve watched Flip play, you know that he’s a me-first guy. He likes to make sure his stat sheet gets filled up. And everyone remembers his glorious month as Ray Allen’s fill-in a few years ago. There seems to be little reason he can’t firmly entrench himself as the team’s #3 option. When his shot’s not falling he will do plenty of damage, but as long as the minutes are there, he’s a worthy starting option. Think of him as comparable to Juan Dixon.
It took one game for Ruben Patterson to get acclimated enough to enter the starting lineup for the Denver Nuggets. He wasn’t all that impressive last night – 6-for-16, 13/7/0 with a steal and a block – but the Nuggets handled the Pistons, which was truly impressive. Patterson has stepped into a pretty good situation in Denver. The Nuggets are one of the league’s highest scoring teams, averaging just over 100 points per game. They are physically beat up, with much of their frontcourt and their starting SG fighting injuries. Patterson is a versatile player who easily slots in at SG or SF and if the team goes small, he can even handle duties at the 4 if necessary. Pattesron would be an absolutely perfect pick up for a team that’s within .05 in FG% of a bunch of teams, needs to move up in steals and is pretty isolated in FT%. Because it’s a fact, Ruben can’t shoot free throws. His career average is right around 65%, but he hasn’t even approached that number over the past few years. Think of him as more of a 55-60% free thrower who will have no trouble getting to the line enough to do some damage. On the 15 Day Rater, he’s -3.82 in FT%. That’s somewhere in between Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard, and obviously without the strengths of those two. I wasn’t able to catch any of the Pistons/Nuggets game last night, but it seems like Patterson may have had a hand in keeping them to 39% shooting. With Earl Boykins, DeMarr Johnson and eventually Greg Buckner around, Patterson may find it hard to see as much PT as Murray in Cleveland. But as we get closer to the end of the season and coaches start figuring out their best lineups, rotations will get slimmer and that will mean more minutes divvied up for fewer players, which is always a good thing in fantasy land.
So who’s the better bet? The fact that I picked up Patterson last night makes me want to say him, but it looks like Murray is already quite firmly entrenched as a top option on his time. But if Patterson can get into a steals groove (check out January and February of last year when he started for the Blazers), it may be hard to tell the difference.