I’m not going to pretend that you guys are all going to be watching the NBA nonstop for the next few weeks. I’m well aware that that most, if not all of you will be paying far more attention to the NCAA tournament, and hey, I can’t blame you. Still, you can pick up some nice fantasy knowledge for next year by closely watching some of these kids. Remember, this year’s tourney stars are next year’s 20-minutes per game, just barely not-having-value rookies.

If there’s one thing I pride myself in, it’s picking that late-lottery rookie that will manage to have value in the coming season, and picking them late in the draft. Two years ago I grabbed Dwyane Wade in the last round, last year it was Andre Iguodala, and this year I snagged Charlie Villanueva late (and then held on to him until January, when I dropped him, and watching him then go on a massive tear. Not that I’m bitter.). So what’s the trick? I dunno. I just manage to find guys that I like. With Wade, it was his mid-range jumper that impressed me when I watched him in the tourney. Iguodala had a nice all-around game, and I thought his defense would keep him on the court. I liked Villanueva, but it wasn’t until he started hitting three’s in training camp that I really warmed to him.

The guys who are drafted in the Top 5 are all going to get drafted in fantasy leagues, and will not catch anyone by surprise when they get PT. But correctly guessing which late-lottery/mid-first-round guys are going to have value can be a huge help to your squad.

Anyhow, here are some guys who, admittedly, I’ve never seen before – but who I’m going to be looking at closely in the NCAA tournament:

Brandon Roy, Sr., Washington – Roy has a bunch of positives going for him. Number one, he puts up great percentages for a non-forward. He’s shot over 50% from the field in all four seasons at Washington. This year, he’s even pushed his FT% over 80%, which is very encouraging. The other thing that I really liked, while reading about Roy, is that he’s handled the point position (either as a true PG or a “point-forward”), which means he can be trusted with the ball. Less mistakes as a rookie means more playing time in the NBA.

Josh Boone, Jr., UConn – I like Boone more than teammate Hilton Armstrong simply because I’m very wary of anyone who comes out of nowhere to be a draftable player. Boone has been highly touted for a couple of years now, and though he’s yet to set the world on fire in college, his shot-blocking ability should be drawing your attention. And remember, even though his stats aren’t magnificent, he’s had to share the ball this year with Armstrong, Rudy Gay, Marcus Williams, Denham Brown and Rashad Anderson. His FT% is a major concern, however.

Kevin Pittsnogle, Sr., West Virginia – Hey, any time a big man can shoot 85% from the stripe, I’m interested. He can shoot, and shoot well, and so he’ll get interest from NBA teams – and from me. But I’m not all that impressed with what I’ve read, and if he’s going to impress me in the tournament it’s going to be by playing on the inside.

Shelden Williams, Sr., Duke – You can talk all you want about JJ Redick, but my guess is the Duke player with the most impact next year will be Williams. His blocks and boards are enough to make him worth a look as a fantasy option. Two teams – Seattle and Minnesota – could draft him and plug him right in to their starting lineups.

The one thing you’ll notice about all of these guys is they’re all juniors or seniors. My guess is, if you’re an underclassman, unless you get drafted in the top 5, you’re not going to be playing much your first year until you prove yourself. NBA teams might be able to be patient, but when you’re year-to-year like most fantasy teams, you don’t have the luxury. Good luck with your brackets!

After having my top 20 column yanked from under me in a hostile takeover by DM last month, I’m taking back the reins this time around.

1. Shawn Marion – He finally won me over with his 90% from the stripe over the last month. The real question is, how will Amare’s return (either this year or next) affect his value? My guess: not much.

2. LeBron James – His FG%, 3’s, and steals have all been in steady decline since December and January, and I’m getting a little worried he might hit the wall. On a side note, how horrendously disappointing has Donyell Marshall been as a Cavalier?

3. Dirk Nowitzki – DM had his at number 6 last time, which is, frankly, ridiculous. My favorite Dirk stat is his FT%, which is right around 90% for the year. Other guys might rank higher on the player rater, but the fact that Dirk does it from the PF spot makes him the most valuable FT guy in the league.

4. Kevin Garnett – Poor KG. He’s really angry, but it hasn’t affected his play yet. His March numbers have been spectacular, though we’ll see if that keeps up.

5. Kobe Bryant – Kobe could be number two on this list, but I worry that his FG% could plummet. 42% over the past month isn’t encouraging. But still, his owners have to be thrilled with the Lakers’ position in the standings. They’re in the playoffs, but it’s not a sure thing, and if they continue to play well they could avoid facing SA or Dallas in round 1.

6. Gilbert Arenas – Here’s something you might not know about us here at FBB: we love Gilbert Arenas. The East Coast Assassin has been on a tear after the All-Star break – 32.8 ppg, 49.8% from the field, 3.0 3’s and 2.7 steals. So, we’ll put him here at six and hope that he keeps it up.

7. Paul Pierce – He’s on fire. I might not love him as much as the Sports Guy, but I’ll admit to being impressed. In next year’s draft, how big will the gap be between Pierce, T-Mac, Kobe and Ray Allen? The general thought this year was that Kobe and T-Mac were on a higher plane, but maybe not anymore.

8. Elton Brand – I might be the only one pushing Brand for MVP, but I’m still convinced. As for fantasy, he’s been better at being Tim Duncan than Tim Duncan has this year, without the FT% woes. He’s a nice mid-first round pick next year.

9. Ray Allen – He’s just solid. At this point, what I’d like to see more than anything from Ray over the rest of the year is to not miss time with injury. I still worry about Ray’s durability, and seeing him top 75 games for a second consecutive year would be nice.

10. Dwyane Wade – I’ve got this idea. If you’re in a head-to-head league next year, I think you could draft Wade, and proceed to punt threes and win your league in a landslide with some smart drafting. With him and Brevin Knight at the point? I dunno, just a thought.

11. Rasheed Wallace – Along with Chauncey Billups, he’s been the best mid-round pick this year. Flip’s presence has really allowed him to flourish, and he’s a potential second round pick next year.

12. Allen Iverson – His ankle is a shame, because I thought he’d use the Team USA debacle as some serious inspiration, and it seemed like he was. Still, I’m hoping that AI’s short absence will allow guys like Stephen Hunter and Andre Iguodala to have a bigger role in the Sixers’ offense.

13. Chauncey Billups – Here’s something that’s got me worried, as a Billups owner – Tony Delk. In the 2 games since Delk decided to be a scorer on his new squad, Billups has taken only 8 shots in each game. Let’s hope this doesn’t become a trend. Still, Chauncey’s 8.8 apg has been one of the nicest surprises in fantasy this year.

14. Joe Johnson – He’s been fifth in the league in assists over the past month with 9.3 per game. What’s more, the Hawks have really been getting better over the past month or two. He might end up being the long term answer at the point for Atlanta.

15. Yao Ming – Hey, do you guys remember when I traded Samuel Dalembert and Jason Terry to DM for Yao Ming and Brevin Knight? Yeah, that was sweet. Yao has been on an absolute tear lately, and so he gets a nice spot in the Top 20.

16. Jason Kidd – He’s been flat-out spectacular since the All-Star break. It’s been like Kidd circa 1999. I wouldn’t count on him keeping it up, but it’s been nice to see.

17. Andrei Kirilenko – I’ll admit it – I’m a huge AK fan, but I am very worried about this year’s output. The FT% is way down, the threes have been next to nil over the last month … I’m just not happy about it.

18. Chris Paul – Here’s a question – what do you expect Paul to do next year? Where do you draft him? How much improvement will there be from year one to year two?

19. Jason Richardson – If he could learn to shoot free-throws … he’d be a second round pick next year. It’s one of the most confounding stats in basketball. Let’s hope he spends a LOT of time working from the stripe this summer.

20. Chris Webber – Admittedly, his stats aren’t as good as some other candidates for this spot, but you’ve got to give props to Webber for staying healthy for so long and turning in a nice season when no one thought he would. So, he gets the 20 spot this time around.

At this point in the fantasy basketball season there’s not really much else to do but sit back and hope for the best. Your trade deadline has most likely passed, meaning that you can’t improve your team except with whatever is sitting on the free agent list. You should certainly be scouring the available players for whatever can help you, but you knew that already. So I like to use the last month of the season to focus on lessons you can learn from the season and apply to future seasons. So today’s lesson is: Have Patience, or Take Advantage of Those Who Don’t. There’s no great secret in predicting how a player will perform. You basically look at what he’s done in the past, look at his age, look at his situation and that’s it. Well, that’s not it, but that’s most of it. Players will perform how they are expected to perform the majority of the time. And they will usually progress or regress to their expected numbers as time passes. So what happens when a player starts out slow? That will most likely be countered with a stronger performance later in the season. If you have one of those players, you just have to sit tight – selling low usually doesn’t work out for the best. But there are always people who do that, and that’s where you, the clever fantasy player, can swoop in. Here are five players whose owners needed to show some patience with this year. Keep them in mind next year when you are about to hit the trade or drop button for a player you know you really shouldn’t.

Josh Smith
In the preseason rankings I put Smith at #57, and said that you’d have to deal with some ups and downs. But it was mostly downs at the beginning of the season, as at the All-Star break Smith was averaging just 8.8/5.9/1.3 on 42% shooting in only 27.5 mpg. Yes, he was getting 2.3 blocks per contest, but he was still a liability to most teams. But he’s caught fire since then, checking in at #18 on the 30 day player rater, with post-break averages of 12.6/8.9/4.1, 1.0 steals and a monster 3.8 blocks while getting nearly 40 minutes per game. This has vaulted him all the way up to #65 on the overall player rater and leaves him with a fine chance of breaking the top 60, where I had him pegged before the year. His ability to stay healthy is a big reason for this, but he’s a young player, so that’s something you should be able to count on. He’s following almost the same pattern as he did last year, and while that can be frustrating early on, it’s also something you may be able to use to your advantage.

Rafer Alston
There was a lot of waiting necessary here, as Alston had to adjust to a new team and overcome an early season injury. His first couple months really couldn’t have been much worse. Through December he played in just 9 games and was averaging a pathetic 7.3/3.9/4.0 on 33% shooting with barely 1 3pg. Those were not anything close to the numbers people were expecting from Alston when they took him as early as the 5th round. He was hitting the waiver wires in mainly leagues, and astute owners who picked him up have been rewarded with a solid #2 PG for the last few months. A monster January saw him average 14.0/6.9/4.4 with 2.0 steals and 2.2 3s, which are true stud numbers. His FG% remains stuck in the high 30s, but this is no surprise, as it’s right at his career average. His scoring has been down the past few months, but he’s still been a huge contributor in 3s, steals and assists, which is what you’re looking for from a #2 PG.

Jason Kidd
It might be hard to remember now, but early in the season there were lots of disappointed Jason Kidd owners. For a guy who was possibly your first pick and definitely at least your second, and someone who was supposed to lead you to dominance in assists, averaging just 6.7 assists per game through November. He was also shooting just 40% and his 3s were down from last year’s numbers as well. Kidd has long been a notorious FG% killer, but it’s been easy to accept since he’s helped dominate in other categories. That wasn’t happening early, and combined with injury worries, some owners may have gotten worried and traded him off. Obviously, that wasn’t the best of ideas. He’s been vintage Kidd lately, seemingly flirting with a triple-double every night and has been single-handedly taking his owners up the standings, just like a first rounder on a hot streak should.

Peja Stojakovic
OK, so I was way off base with my preseason prediction that he would put up numbers quite similar to Ray Allen this year and would offer a better overall value. That’s as much due to Allen having a career year at age 30, in his 10th season, right after signing a big contract extension as it does with another disappointing season from Stojakovic. But Peja has been close to the Peja of old since finding a new home in Indiana. His 03-04 season in which he averaged 24.3 ppg with 3 3pg on 48% shooting is starting to look like the clear outlier in his career, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a true fantasy asset, if not fantasy superstar. It’s especially nice to see Peja realize that’s he’s actually 6’10” and hitting the boards. His 20.4/6.6/1.5 with 2.4 3s on 46/92 shooting is more than solid.

Caron Butler
You all know that we are huge Wizards fans here at FBB, so you can imagine our frustration early in the season when we had to endure Caron Butler – who was clearly the Wizards third best player (and possibly even second best player) – coming off the bench for the first month and a half of the season. He still put up decent numbers during this time but wasn’t very consistent on a game-to-game basis, making him a shaky start for most fantasy owners and causing him to hit the waiver wire in more than a few leagues. But sometimes you just have to hold out hope that talent wins out and that was the case here. Since entering the starting lineup Butler is putting up the best numbers of his career, a solid 17.6/6.5/2.7 with 1.6 steals and even chipping in with 0.7 3s.

Beware the Ides of March approacheth. Do not let NCAA Selection Sunday distract you from your fantasy hoops obligations for week 3/13-3/19.

Four Games: Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Indiana, LAL, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Orlando, Philadelphia, Portland, Utah, Washington.
Three Games: Charlotte, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, LAC, Memphis, Phoenix, Sacramento, San Antonio, Toronto.
Two Games: Golden State, New Orleans, Seattle.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Luol Deng, F – Before a stinker at Detroit on Wednesday, the Man from Sudan was on a tear: 19/11/2 with a steal and a block in a robust 41.6 minutes over five games. If the 6’9 swingman could develop his three-point shot his value would skyrocket. Get him in your lineups Deng it!

Jason Williams, PG – White Chocolate is red hot and he’s been a big contributor during Miami’s current 10-game win streak. He’s dealt with some nagging injuries this season but he appears healthy and geared up for the playoffs. Averages of 18/2/7 and 3.3 treys per game in March are reason to believe he’ll be a great start with a full schedule next week.

Ryan Gomes, F – The second round draft pick out of Providence has been unbelievable since being thrust into Boston’s starting lineup due to injuries in their frontcourt. Averaging 16/9/2 with 62%FG, 76%FT, and 1 steal over his last 11 games, he’s also second on the team (after Pierce) with 39 minutes a night over that span. Gomes’ success is remarkable considering the inconsequential 8 mpg he averaged over the season’s first three months. So why has top prospect Al Jefferson struggled so much this season while Gomes now makes it look easy as pie? Well first, Gomes played all four years in college and developed his game and maturity level before going pro. He’s a dedicated player, and the rookie also has the benefit of playing big minutes without the lofty expectations imposed on the 21-year-old Jefferson. Ryan has actually stepped it up since Big Al returned from injury by turning in back-to-back career highs of 27 and 29 points. I can’t imagine anyone taking his starting spot the way he’s playing right now. The C’s are 8-4 since Gomes was inserted into the SLU, so go ahead and jump on the bandwagon baby!

Carlos Boozer, PF – The former Blue Devil has probably been the biggest fantasy disappointment this year as he sat out most of the season with a nagging hamstring injury. The overpaid Dukie finally returned to the hardwood last month and is averaging 11/9/2 over his last 9 games coming off the bench. As he regains strength and builds his confidence, Boozer should work his way back into Utah’s starting lineup soon, at which point he could easily put up 18/10/2. The Jazz have four games next week and the Alaskan big man makes a decent start.

Kyle Korver, F – Another disappointment this season, Korver’s value is exclusively tied to his ability to dial long distance. I’m not sure if the MCI/Verizon or AT&T/SBC mergers had anything to do with his struggles, but who knows. Kyle led the league with 226 treys last season, but has taken a step back and been used off the Sixers’ bench for the last couple months. He was actually in the starting lineup last night, filling in for the injured Kevin Ollie, but shot a miserable 1 for 12 (yes, that’s a dozen attempts) from behind the arc. Before last night’s dud, Korver was on a little hot streak averaging 16 points and nearly 3 rainmakers over seven games. Hopefully KK can bounce back and be a difference maker with some nice matchups next week (TOR, @SEA, @LAC, @GS).

Sit ‘em down:
Kevin Martin – Bonzi’s return is finally starting to cut into his production. See if you have a better option.
Vladimir Radmanovic – RadMan has value but he’s too inconsistent to play for only two contests this week.
Baron Davis – Still coming off the bench and shooting like Helen Keller.
Steve Nash – He missed last night’s game against the Spurs and is listed as “day-to-day.” He could play this weekend but is more likely to miss a handful of games. I know it hurts benching the reigning MVP but you should only use him if you have no other choice.

A couple of random thoughts on my mind as the fantasy deadline approaches …

- If you’re looking for a guy to make a big impact on your team who could possibly be had on the cheap, here’s a name that doesn’t get mentioned often with “cheap”: Shaquille O’Neal. Time is running out for the Diesel to win a title sans Kobe, and as Shaq likes to remind us, he gives different amounts of effort as the season progresses. After lulling through January, he picked up his scoring, blocks, and FG% last month. With Dwyane Wade hurting, Shaq could be in line for some big numbers over the next few weeks. Watching him last night, he looked as in shape as he’s been in awhile. Shaq has been “overvalued” in fantasy leagues for years, and all the talk may make him undervalued now. If you can afford the hit in FT%, he could be a really solid pickup.

- We’ve had questions in the past few weeks about managing total games played. My first few tries at fantasy basketball, I always liked to have some games stored for a late-season push. The problem is, as the end of the season nears, it’s tougher to judge who’s going to get playing time. As NBA teams fall out of contention, and others solidify their playoff spots, more coaches shake up their lineups, and as any Knicks owners know, that can be incredibly frustrating. I always ended up using my saved games on guys who ended up with 2-point, 3-board nights, and the surge just never materialized. You’re much better off keeping your games right on pace for the maximum as the year progresses.

- If you’re looking for some keepers, I’d highly recommend looking at the Atlanta Hawks. With Al Harrington likely out the door this summer, that will clear up a ton of PT for Josh Smith, Josh Childress, and Marvin Williams. True, the Hawks will have some significant cap space to work with, but that will likely be spent on either a point guard to move Joe Johnson to the 2, or a center (if there are any to be had). Smith, Childress and Williams are all terrific keepers for next year. They must have been drafted pretty low this year, but all could be mid-round picks next fall, depending on how the summer shakes out.

All three guys are nice players, but my favorite right now is Williams, who has been pretty solid since the All-Star break. He seems to be playing more on the inside lately, getting to the line more often, grabbing more offensive rebounds, and shooting at a higher percentage. He’s shown nice development in his rookie year, and I think he’ll have enough value to be a third forward next year.

- Here’s something interesting. And by interesting, I mean frustrating. Boris Diaw is starting at center for the Phoenix Suns. This isn’t a secret. Yahoo! Sports is aware of it. I know this, of course, because their depth chart for the Suns shows Diaw as the starting center. It’s been happening for awhile now. 6 games, in fact. And yet, he doesn’t qualify at center yet in Yahoo leagues! Why? Who knows? I’m not a Diaw owner, but still, it’s pretty annoying. Anyone know when he’ll start qualifying at center?

- Finally, let me say a few words about Darko. Our resident Darko Enthusiast, PR, has been very high on the new Floridian. Right now, though, he’s helping in one category, and one category only: blocks. His stats right now are very similar to Adonal Foyle, who can be found on just about every waiver wire in the country. I’m just not convinced he’s going to do that much more – this year – than Foyle, at least if he continues to see just 20 mpg. Should he get closer to 30, he’ll be worth a closer look, but for now, I’d look for help in another place.

Sorry for the lateness of today’s post, but, y’know, work. Stupid work. Anyway, one claim that I’ve made a bunch on here is that there are about 50-75 players in the league – roughly two or three per team – that are truly special players. The guys with real talent who rise above the rest. After that, everyone’s pretty much the same, and given enough playing time, the numbers will bear that out. The key for these guys is simply getting that playing time to show what they can do. We’ll be focusing on a former Terp today, so I’ll use two other former Terps as examples real quick – Juan Dixon and Steve Blake. Both guys were kind of buried in Washington, but given a chance in Portland they’ve proven they are perfectly competent players capable of putting up respectable numbers for fantasy purposes when given a certain amount of playing time. It’s all about the playing time.

In some ways, Chris Wilcox is a good data point in favor of staying in school an extra year. Maybe. He came out after his sophomore year and was able to cash in on that lottery pick rookie contract, so it’s hard to tell a guy he made a bad decision after getting a guaranteed $11 million or so. But at the same time, he was still somewhat of a project and was treated as such and has never really had the chance to prove himself on an extended basis. But no matter, he’s an “athletic” big man, so you know that once he hits free agency he’ll get some team to give him at least something close to the complete mid-level exception. But that doesn’t concern us right now. Well, it does a little since he’s going to be a restricted free agent in a few months and, as luck would have it, he looks to be the starting power forward on one of the league’s highest scoring teams for a few weeks. This could be a recipe for success.

Wilcox has had his chances as a starter before and he’s been reasonably successful, but never successful enough to turn it into anything lasting. I’ve lumped him into the same group as Stromile Swift and Melvin Ely, as big men who “just need a chance” but for whatever reason never get that chance. Because of an injury to Chris Kaman, Wilcox began last year as a starter, starting the first 19 games in the middle for the Clippers. He started off extremely strong, going for 16.2/7.7/1.7 on 55% shooting, but faltered after that, dropping off to 7.3/4.2/0.4 in his next nine starts. A couple years back, when Elton Brand got hurt after his monster 21/15 with 8 blocks opener in Japan (you think I had him on my team that year?), Wilcox was pressed into starting action and again responded quite well out of the gate. He put up 14.5/7.0/1.3 on 63% shooting, but again faltered, going for 5.8/4.2/1.4 before Brand returned. So if Wilcox is going to have some value, chances are he’ll have it sooner rather than later.

Seattle doesn’t have too much of a choice but to give him some serious PT. Nick Collison is on the shelf, Reggie Evans is in Denver, Danny Fortson is done (but obviously giving Wilcox some hair style advice). That leaves Robert Swift, Mikki Moore and Johan Petro as the only bigs on Seattle in addition to Wilcox. In other words, Wilcox has every opportunity that he needs. But keep his history in mind. Wilcox still hasn’t mastered the art of playing defense (perhaps not a problem now that he’s on Seattle) or making his coaches like him. But hey, that’s why we play fantasy basketball. Translating Wilcox’s Seattle numbers (in an admittedly small 8 game sample) out to 34-35 minutes per game, we come up with 16.1/7.3/1.2 with 0.4 steals and 0.5 blocks. Solid, unspectacular, and strangley similar to those numbers he put up when he was a starter the past two years with the Clippers (at least during his “good” runs).

But might he be capable of putting up better numbers than that? Another thing I talk about a lot is what # scoring option you are on your team. Each team has a hierarchy and the more guys you have that are at the top of the totem pole on their respective teams, the better off you’ll be. Rashard Lewis is underrated for a ton of reasons, but one reason I’ve been especially high on him the past couple of years is that there’s simply nobody else on Seattle besides Ray Allen that can be counted on as a consistent scorer. With Luke Ridnour clearly more of a distributor than a scorer, Wilcox has a real chance to be the third man.

So what’s the bottom line? Wilcox should be good to go to plug into your lineups, as long as you see that he’s starting the next time Seattle takes the court. His numbers as a starter in L.A. and his pro-rated numbers so far with Seattle show that he might actually be pretty consistent, at least for a bit. He’s not going to block many shots, but he’s also not going to miss many shots. He’s a career 53% shooter and has never been below 50% for a season. I’ve paid added – and perhaps exaggerated – attention to percentages this season, just because I think it’s so easy to overlook them compared to the counting stats. But Wilcox should shoot enough to actually make a difference there. His game-to-game consistency is where the risk lies, especially for those of you in daily lineup change formats. That’s always the risk with waiver wire pickups. Here’s an example that I recently had to endure. I pick up Ruben Patterson after he takes over as Denver’s starting SG. After he logs 36 minutes in an impressive win against Detroit, I plug him in for the next game against Houston. He ends up shooting 2-for-12 with 6 points, 5 boards and nothing else. So I take him out of the lineup for his next game. He responds with 21/5/8, 3 steals and a block on 9-of-12 shooting. I bang my head on something. This is the inherent risk with free agent pickups. So just beware.

As we head into the home stretch for the season, you’ve got just a few days to take advantage of the trading deadline. If you’re looking for an overall strategy for the last months of the year, here’s one: Take the stud with something to prove. The motivated one. In any season, there are going to be teams that can relax a bit before the playoffs, teams that are so far out of it they go into shut-down, and then teams that are playing for their playoff lives. You want to have as many guys on teams in that last category as possible – particularly the stars on those teams. There’s no better fantasy player than the superstar that puts his team on his shoulders and carries them into the postseason. Let’s take a look at a few top picks and decide whether they’ve got motivation to pick it up down the stretch, or end up living in a van down by the river:

LeBron James – Perhaps no player will be scrutinized more over the last few months of the season than LeBron. With the Cavs already slipping in the standings, there is talk or last year’s meteoric fall out of the playoffs. With one addition done for the year (Larry Hughes), and two other drastically underperforming (Donyell Marshall and Damon Jones), it’s up to James to dominate. While it’s easy to say that James will be a top-3 player over the rest of the year, I’d go so far as to say that he’ll be the top player, overtaking Shawn Marion.

Kevin Garnett – Only the Big Ticket can be totally miserable and still be a fantasy stud. The one thing that you can say about KG is he won’t sit out any games – he’ll be in it until the end. Even though all signs point to him losing interest, my guess is he’ll be solid as usual through the rest of the season. What you see now is likely what you’ll see in the near future.

Kobe Bryant – Just behind LeBron in the “most motivated” category is Kobe. He’s shown that when he wants to, he can take over a game. At some point, he’s going to give up the “make it look like I’m a team player” attitude and instead score like a maniac. When that happens, you’re going to want him on your team. If you’re looking to make a move in points, you should do everything you can to pick up Kobe – he could very well average 40+ ppg in yet another month this season.

Tim Duncan – I’ve been talking for a little while about selling on Duncan, and I even sold him myself a few weeks ago. After a spectacular start to the season, it’s been all downhill for Timmy and his battle against Plantar Fas…um…facs…uh…his foot. His scoring was under 15 ppg last month, and he shot just 38.6% from the field and 55.6% from the line. That’s not the kind of production that’s going to propel the Spurs to a championship this summer, and so they may shut him down for a little bit. Either way, this is not a guy you want on your team. If you can sell high based on reputation alone, do it.

Allen Iverson – If anyone is going to challenge Kobe for the scoring title, it’s going to be AI. He’s been on an incredible tear lately, is posting a career-high in ppg, and is shooting at the second-highest percentage of his career. Unfortunately, his numbers are down – albeit slightly – in every other category this year. Here’s my guess – 76ers coach Maurice Cheeks is playing offensive-minded Stephen Hunter more than Sammy Dalembert early in games right now to take some of the scoring load off of AI. That may be bad for his ppg, but he’ll pick it up everywhere else and continue to be flat out awesome over the rest of the year.

We’ve got about seven weeks left in the NBA season, but if you’re getting antsy for March Madness or Baseball or just want to read about former NFL running back Lawrence Phillips’ latest escapades, please stop by Sports Troopers when you have a moment to join the fun.

As for the NBA, I think I got some good plug-ins for you next week 3/6-3/12. Let me know what you think.

Five Games: San Antonio.
Four Games: Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Golden State, Indiana, LAL, Memphis, Miami, Minnesota, New Orleans, Phoenix, Sacramento, Toronto.
Three Games: Detroit, Houston, LAC, Milwaukee, New Jersey, Orlando, Philadelphia, Portland, Seattle, Utah, Washington.
Two Games: Atlanta, New York.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Nazr Mohammed, C – After his inspired performance in last year’s playoffs many expected a bigger role for Mohammed this season. It took some time, but Nazr has finally supplanted EuroCenter Rasho Nesterovic in San Antonio’s starting lineup. Can you believe that 7-ft Rasho had only one game with 10 rebounds all season before losing his starting job? Meanwhile, Mohammed is averaging 11pts and 9 rebounds over his last six games including two double-doubles and a 20-rebound performance on Feb 15. He should have no trouble hanging on to the starting gig for the rest of the season. Nazr and the Spurs give new meaning to the phrase “busy schedule” this week with a whopping five games on tap (@LAL, @LAC, @PHO, LAL, HOU). Note: Michael Finley (who’s been outplaying Ginobili recently) is also worth a look next week.

Jeff Foster, C – The Pacers’ center may resemble a 7-foot vampire, but don’t be scared to take advantage of his rebounding and FG%. I like to call him a “poor man’s Tyson Chandler with no upside” which may not be all that flattering, but if you need a center who can clean the glass, Foster is your man. He’s averaging 8/14/1 over his last three contests and is shooting 55% from the floor this season. Get Dracula in your lineup for four battles next week.

Al Jefferson, PF – How many more times will I get my hopes up for Big Al before he really starts producing consistently? I was one of those fantasy owners who drafted him relatively early expecting double-doubles regularly from the big kid all year long. So he’s disappointed this year… get over it, and look ahead. The current situation in Boston seems to be a perfect opportunity for Al-Jeff to finally get it together. His frontcourt mate Kendrick Perkins will be out a couple more weeks with a dislocated shoulder and Jefferson should be given big minutes right away and could even get some starts at the five making him eligible at center. We’ve seen what rookie PF Ryan Gomes has been able to do while filling in upfront, so hopefully Jefferson can step up for four tilts next week. If he has any more setbacks I promise not to speak of him again until next season.

Antoine Walker, F – Every week it seems there’s one player I reluctantly recommend plugging in. Employee #8 has long been a favorite punching bag of mine as an exemplary NBA slacker, but he still has the ability to contribute some decent fantasy numbers when he plays. ‘Toine has been getting just over 30 minutes a game lately, which is right around his threshold for fantasy relevance. Walker ’06 may be a far cry from Walker circa 2000, but he’s averaging a worthwhile 14/6/2 with 2.2 treys and 1 steal over his last half dozen games. He’s a decent play at your utility spot right now while he’s outplaying fellow underachiever James Posey.

Deron Williams, PG – The first point guard selected in last year’s draft, Williams has mostly been a disappointment in Salt Lake City this season. The former Illini ball handler started the year pretty strong and even worked his way into the starting lineup for about a month, but coach Jerry Sloan got fed up with the rookie and decided to go with veterans Keith McCleod and Milt Palacio for quite some time. Deron is now back in Sloan’s SLU and has scored double figures in four straight games, averaging 15/3/5 with 2.5 triples and 1.3 thefts over that span. He is a nice addition to your squad and if (that’s a BIG if) he can keep it up, he should be a solid #2 PG the rest of the way.

Marcus Banks, PG – This guy has been a very nice surprise since coming to the land of 10,000 lakes in the Szczerbiak/Davis deal a month ago. Marko Jaric already played himself out of a starting job and Banks also pushed veteran PG Anthony Carter out of the way with ease. Marcus has now started three consecutive games for the Wolves and is averaging 14/4/6 on 55% shooting and 1.5 steals over his last four. Minnesota is falling out of playoff contention fast and they may be well on their way to rebuilding mode. Banks will have his ups and downs but he makes a nice start with four games including a couple of sweet matchups @SEA and @PHO to finish the week.

We can all agree that the trade deadline week was a dud. There were some nice deals made in the weeks leading up to it, but deadline day itself was a whole lot of nothing. Still, we thought a few guys who switched cities would eventually have some increased value and last night seemed to signal that the time is now for two of those guys – Ronald “Flip” Murray and Ruben “I can’t retaliate because I’m on probation, so I would get in trouble” Patterson. Who’s the better bet from here on out? Let’s investigate.

A few days ago I expressed my skepticism on Flip Murray. I said that the only category he’d be consistent in would be FG%, and that wasn’t a good thing. He didn’t let me down by shooting 2-for-12 that night, but in his other two most recent games he’s shot 16-for-29. Another reason I wasn’t sold on him was that there were three guys fighting for PT at the SG position: Flip, Sasha Pavlovic and Damon Jones. But it seems that in just a week’s time Murray has established himself as the man at the position. After starting 19 straight games – during which the team went 12-7, it should be pointed out – Pavlovic has become completely irrelevant, playing just 13 minutes in the past two games. And Damon Jones … it just isn’t happening for Damon Jones this year. The bottom line is this – Flip has played 84 minutes over the past two games. It is near impossible to get that much PT and not have considerable fantasy value. I still maintain that he’s going to do some serious damage to your FG% — he’s shooting a nice 45.5% this season, but is a career 40.5% shooter. But if you’ve watched Flip play, you know that he’s a me-first guy. He likes to make sure his stat sheet gets filled up. And everyone remembers his glorious month as Ray Allen’s fill-in a few years ago. There seems to be little reason he can’t firmly entrench himself as the team’s #3 option. When his shot’s not falling he will do plenty of damage, but as long as the minutes are there, he’s a worthy starting option. Think of him as comparable to Juan Dixon.

It took one game for Ruben Patterson to get acclimated enough to enter the starting lineup for the Denver Nuggets. He wasn’t all that impressive last night – 6-for-16, 13/7/0 with a steal and a block – but the Nuggets handled the Pistons, which was truly impressive. Patterson has stepped into a pretty good situation in Denver. The Nuggets are one of the league’s highest scoring teams, averaging just over 100 points per game. They are physically beat up, with much of their frontcourt and their starting SG fighting injuries. Patterson is a versatile player who easily slots in at SG or SF and if the team goes small, he can even handle duties at the 4 if necessary. Pattesron would be an absolutely perfect pick up for a team that’s within .05 in FG% of a bunch of teams, needs to move up in steals and is pretty isolated in FT%. Because it’s a fact, Ruben can’t shoot free throws. His career average is right around 65%, but he hasn’t even approached that number over the past few years. Think of him as more of a 55-60% free thrower who will have no trouble getting to the line enough to do some damage. On the 15 Day Rater, he’s -3.82 in FT%. That’s somewhere in between Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard, and obviously without the strengths of those two. I wasn’t able to catch any of the Pistons/Nuggets game last night, but it seems like Patterson may have had a hand in keeping them to 39% shooting. With Earl Boykins, DeMarr Johnson and eventually Greg Buckner around, Patterson may find it hard to see as much PT as Murray in Cleveland. But as we get closer to the end of the season and coaches start figuring out their best lineups, rotations will get slimmer and that will mean more minutes divvied up for fewer players, which is always a good thing in fantasy land.

So who’s the better bet? The fact that I picked up Patterson last night makes me want to say him, but it looks like Murray is already quite firmly entrenched as a top option on his time. But if Patterson can get into a steals groove (check out January and February of last year when he started for the Blazers), it may be hard to tell the difference.

When it comes to fantasy sports, some strategies require you to go all-out if you want them to work. One of these, which we discussed a few weeks ago, is punting a category. The only way to succeed in punting a category is to get rid of EVERY asset you have in the category. Keeper leagues, to me, are the same way. As the trade deadline for many leagues is only about a week away, if you’re in a keeper league, you’ve got a decision to make: Are you a have, or a have-not?

Of course, qualifying as a “have” means taking into account many different variables. How many teams are in the money at the end of the season, how far out of the money you are (if you’re currently in the money, clearly, you’re a “have”), and how good a shot you have at getting in the money based on the categories. Regardless, it is critical that you make this decision right now, while there’s still time to make some trades to set you up for either a late-season push, or to stock up on keepers for next year.

So, once you’ve made your decision, it’s time to make some serious roster moves. If you’re in a keeper league, there should be a flurry of trade activity in the next week. Much like punting a category, you’ve got to get rid of EVERY asset that is helping you towards a goal you’re not attempting to reach. For example:

In our league (which isn’t a keeper league, but nonetheless), the three worst teams in the league have players like Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant, and Tim Duncan on their squads. If this was a keeper league, by the end of next week, these guys should all be on teams trying to win championships. What good are these guys doing on bad teams? If you’re in last place, Kobe Bryant is just sitting there wasting value. You should be moving him to a contender in exchange for guys with good keeper value. Who cares if the move is totally lopsided – if you’ve got no shot at winning this year, getting a guy with keeper value is more valuable to your team than your first-round pick from this year.

Similarly, if you’re in contention in your league, you should be offering every player with keeper value to the guys in the bottom of the standings, searching for studs. Remember, the best opportunity for trades are when players have different values for different teams. This is a perfect example of that.

So with that said, who are the guys with the most keeper value? Well, rules are different in every league. So, it’s really tough to say with different round-value rules, lengths of time you can keep guys, etc. But odds are any guy who’s has a breakout season this year is a nice keeper (David West, for example, or Gerald Wallace). Also, many rookies are going to end up having very strong keeper value, like Charlie Villanueva or Raymond Felton.

Still, as great as David West has been this year, he’s got much more value for a team at the bottom of the standings than he does for a team at the top. Just like right now, LeBron’s got more value for a team at the top of the standings than he does for a team at the bottom. West for LeBron? Only in keeper leagues.