We’re already starting to get a couple of questions about next year’s fantasy basketball draft. And that’s awesome. If there’s one thing we love talking about here at FBB, it’s fantasy basketball drafts. Just look at the 2 months worth of posts we had getting ready for this year’s draft. And don’t you worry, we’ll be just as obsessive (if not more so) for next year. Still, it’s never too early to talk about next year’s draft. One thing that I’m always wary of is late-season surgers. Guys who blow up over the last month or two of the season, come out of nowhere and increase their draft stock by a couple of rounds. This year, we’ve had a trio of big men who have really turned on the jets over the last month or two. Let’s try to determine who’s for real, and who’s a mirage.

Chris Wilcox
Unless you’ve been on Mars for the past decade, in a cave with your eyes shut, and your fingers in your ears, you should know that all of us here at FBB are University of Maryland alums. And while we’re not busy celebrating our ladies’ victory in the NCAA Tourney last night (sort of), we’re following our favorite Terps in the NBA. Chris Wilcox has always had tons of talent, but has never been able to put it together to be a great player. He was raw coming out of school, and by the time he was ready to be a full-time NBA player, he was stuck behind Elton Brand on the Clippers, and no matter how good he was, he wasn’t going to displace Elton Brand.

So he was stuck on the depth chart and had nothing to do but sit back and learn how to play the game. He showed flashes here and there, but couldn’t find the minutes to be a viable fantasy option. Then he got sent to the Sonics, and all that changed, and what has emerged is a fairly polished, effective big man. He’s shooting a career-high 60% from the floor since arriving in the northwest. The 80% from the stripe is great, but has to be an anomaly. Still, you can’t ignore 14.8 points and 8 boards while qualifying at center.

So where does Wilcox end up next year in your fantasy draft? You’d have to expect the Sonics to keep him around, as he’s a restricted FA. But here’s my problem. He’s a three-category player – points, boards, and FG%. Sort of a poor man’s Zach Randolph, who I wouldn’t draft before the 6th or 7th round. He doesn’t do anything for you in either defensive category, and while he’s performing great right now, he’s also probably maxing out his value. I’d say he’s a fringe player at best for next year – a nice bench player and third or fourth center.

Yao Ming
Boy, talk about a surge. Since the All-Star break, and returning from his toe surgery, Ming has put up 27.4/12.2 with 1.9 blocks with spectacular percentages. He’s been a top-5 fantasy player any way you look at it, and the top center in the game, both in fantasy and real life. With Tracy McGrady out for the year, Ming has taken over the Rockets and while they won’t be making the playoffs, his breakout alone has made this a positive season.

But will it keep up? Ming has always been a terribly difficult player to value. The potential is there for him to be a top pick, but when he didn’t live up to that, there was some backlash, and as of early this year a lot of folks – us included – were writing him off as a top-20 pick. But now that all ten toes are working properly, and T-Mac is showing up to games in a suit and not a uniform, there’s talk of him being a first-round pick.

I’m still skeptical. I think he’s a terrific second round selection, but as a first rounder? Once McGrady returns, Yao will have to take a step back. He’s still not as dominant in blocks as I’d like him to be as a first-rounder. But early in the second round, somewhere around 15 or so, I could see taking him there.

Carlos Boozer
Boozer certainly has his advocates here at the FBB comment section, but I’m not one of them. Yes, he’s on a hot streak right now for sure, racking up the points and boards. But, just like Chris Wilcox, he’s really just a three-category player. Sure he’s better than Wilcox in those categories, but he’s not dominant anywhere, he’s a liability in blocks, where you have to have help from centers, and I’m still not convinced he’ll be healthy for a full year. DM says he’ll be a fourth round pick, but you won’t see me picking him there. Boozer is no more than a complementary player, for a team that need points from the center position, and complementary players generally don’t get picked until the 6th round at the earliest. That’s where I’d put him.

As we near the end of the fantasy season, it’s important to recognize that you’re not going to find those awesome pickups that you always spend time trolling for during the first half of the year. And as you look for players to fill those extra games you’ve got lying around, your standards have to drop a bit. Remember – even if you play a guy who gets 2 points, a rebound and an assist, that’s 2 more points, one more rebound and one more assist than you’d have if you just let an extra game go by. With that in mind, let’s see if we can find some guys who are good bets for a single game here or there:

Nate Robinson, G, NYK
Robinson’s got a couple of things going for him. One, he qualifies at both guard positions, which mean that he’s got added value for those filling games. Two, with Stephon Marbury still out, Larry Brown may be forced to play him as Steve Francis’s backup. And three, even if he doesn’t see a bunch of minutes, he’s still a good bet for a three or a steal as long as he gets on the court. Of course, he does have the major negative of being under the rule of Larry Brown, who may be the most hated man in all of fantasy basketball, even surpassing Hubie Brown of a few years ago. As of yesterday, Robinson looked like a great play. As of this morning, it’s a slightly different story as news comes out that he was nearly sent to the D-League a month ago. But Robinson, who plays three times over the next four days, is still a nice game-filler for those of you with extra guard games.

Antonio McDyess, PF, DET
With Rasheed Wallace being suspended for tonight’s game, McDyess will likely be counted on for 30+ minutes. But even when he’s seeing his typical 20 or so mpg, he’s still a nice asset. He’ll contribute in both defensive categories, rebounds, and recently he’s been on a bit of a scoring streak. Also, with the playoffs approaching, McDyess is a strong candidate for more playing time as Ben Wallace and Sheed get a little rest now that the playoffs have been clinched. It’s also a possibility that Dale Davis will see some extra time off the Piston pine, but probably not enough to make him worthwhile.

The Phoenix Chuckers
Any of these guys – James Jones, Leandro Barbosa, Eddie House, Tim Thomas, Raja Bell – could be a fine pickup if you’re looking for threes. With Mike D’Antoni allowing his players to shoot at will, and Steve Nash putting them in position to do just that, the Suns not only take the most threes of any team in the league, they also make the highest percentage of them. The problem is knowing who’s going to have the hot hand from night to night. Last Friday, Barbosa exploded for 28 points – the next game, he was held to 10. But all of them, on average, will give you at least one three and maybe 8-10 points with a spattering of other stats.

Martell Webster, G/F, POR
While the rest of his team is a complete disaster, Webster will have an opportunity to strut his stuff over the final few weeks of the season. He’ll have his ups and downs, but in the end he’ll be a big help in threes, and should contribute in points and FT% as well. Anything more than that might be asking too much, but he’s also a candidate for one of those out-of-nowhere breakout games as well.

One thing we always look for before the season are players entering the final year of their contract. The common logic is that with their chance for a big pay day on the horizon, these players will “kick it up a notch” and put up numbers better than what you would normally expect. A player like Larry Hughes last year was a great example of this. But is it really something that happens with that much regularity? Using Chris Sheridan’s article for ESPN.com from the beginning of February, where he listed the top 25 upcoming free agents, let’s see if these guys saw a spike in their performance this season.

Ben Wallace
2003-2004: 9.5/12.4/1.7, 1.8 steals, 3.0 blocks in 37.7 mpg
2004-2005: 9.7/12.2/1.7, 1.4 steals, 2.4 blocks in 36.1 mpg
2005-2006: 7.6/11.6/2.0, 1.8 steals, 2.2 blocks in 35.8 mpg

No spike at all for Big Ben, although his shooting percentage is at its highest mark for 01-02. He might not be the case for a situation like this though; his talents are well known and it’s long been assumed that his re-signing with the Pistons is little more than a formality.

Al Harrington
2003-2004: 13.3/6.4/1.7, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks, 0.3 3s in 30.9 mpg
2004-2005: 17.6/7.0/3.2, 1.3 steals, 0.2 blocks, 0.2 3s in 38.6 mpg
2005-2006: 18.9/6.9/3.2, 1.1 steals, 0.2 blocks, 0.9 3s in 37.1 mpg

Besides showing that he can hit the occasional 3, there hasn’t been much to distinguish Harrington’s season this year from last year. His scoring rate is up a bit, but everything else has stayed mostly the same.

Jason Terry
2003-2004: 16.8/4.2/5.4, 1.5 steals, 1.8 3s, 42% FG in 37.3 mpg
2004-2005: 12.4/2.4/5.4, 1.4 steals, 1.3 3s, 50% FG in 30.0 mpg
2005-2006: 17.4/1.9/3.8, 1.3 steals, 2.2 3s, 47% FG in 35.2 mpg

It looks like a big improvement, but the biggest bump has been in the minutes department; seeing a big drop in assists while seeing five extra minutes per game won’t do anything to convince people that Terry is a “true” PG. Still, Terry has once again turned in a consistent, underappreciated fantasy season, currently finding himself at #35 on the Player Rater.

Vladimir Radmanovic
2003-2004: 12.0/5.3/1.8, 1.0 steals, 0.6 blocks, 1.8 3s in 30.1 mpg
2004-2005: 11.8/4.6/1.4, 0.9 steals, 0.5 blocks, 2.0 3s in 29.5 mpg
2005-2006 (Seattle): 9.3/4.0/1.5, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks, 1.5 3s in 23.2 mpg
2005-2006 (Clippers): 11.6/6.3/2.3, 1.1 steals, 0.6 blocks, 2.4 3s in 30.8 mpg

Don’t call it a comeback – RadMan’s resurgence in L.A. is simply a recreation of what he did in Seattle in 03-04 and 04-05. His size, ability to knock down the 3 and now the fact that he has “contributed to a winning” team should make him a rich man over the summer, but it’s still hard to believe he turned down $50 million.

Peja Stojakovic
2003-2004: 24.3/6.3/2.1, 1.3 steals, 3.0 3s, 48% FG in 40.3 mpg
2004-2005: 20.1/4.3/2.1, 1.2 steals, 2.6 3s, 44% FG in 38.4 mpg
2005-2006 (Kings): 16.5/5.3/2.2, 2.3 3s, 40% FG in 37.0 mpg
2005-2006 (Pacers): 19.2/6.4/1.8, 2.2 3s, 46% FG in 36.5 mpg

I’ll admit I thought this was going to be a good one. Coming off a down year and going for a big contract, I like Peja almost as much as Ray Allen this year. Oops. His resurgence in Indiana has been solid, but he’s still nowhere near his 03-04 peak.

Nene
Worst. Timing. Ever.

Mike James
2003-2004: 6.4/2.2/3.7, 1.0 steals, 0.8 3s, 40% FG in 19.7 mpg
2004-2005: 9.3/2.9/4.2, 1.2 steals, 1.3 3s, 42% FG in 27.1 mpg
2005-2006: 19.3/3.2/5.9, 0.9 steals, 2.0 3s, 46% FG in 36.6 mpg

Here’s the guy who helps the contract year push theory take on perhaps greater meaning than it should. James has seemingly come out of nowhere to put up huge numbers and after bouncing between six squads since 2003 is looking to find a permanent home in the offseason. But check out his p40 numbers from the last two seasons.

2005-2006: 21.1/3.5/6.4, 1.0 steals, 2.2 3s, 46% FG
2004-2005: 18.7/4.5/5.7, 1.4 steals, 2.2 3s, 42% FG

James just needed the opportunity. Yes, his numbers are still better, but most of that is due to an abnormally high FG%. Otherwise, his numbers are right in line with what you’d expect. So yes, James saw the opportunity and ran with it, but we can’t necessarily say that this is a contract push, or rather just finally getting an opportunity.

Bobby Jackson
2003-2004: 13.8/3.5/2.1, 1.0 steals, 1.6 3s, 44% FG in 23.7 mpg
2004-2005: 12.0/3.4/2.4, 0.6 steals, 1.3 3s, 43% FG in 21.4 mpg
2005-2006: 11.6/3.1/2.8, 0.8 steals, 1.8 3s, 38% FG in 25.4 mpg

The best thing B-Jax did for his offseason value was appear in 63 games so far. After missing more games than he played in the past two seasons, he needed to show at least some ability to stay healthy. He missed one stretch of 8 games and another of 3, but has been in the lineup since then. But there’s no real performance spike to speak of.

Joel Przybilla
2003-2004: Irrelevant.
2004-2005: 6.4/7.7/1.0, 2.1 blocks, 60% FG in 24.4 mpg
2005-2006: 6.2/6.9/0.8, 2.4 blocks, 55% FG in 24.9 mpg

Not bad, but Przybilla didn’t take that leap forward people were expecting. Injuries, the presence of Theo Ratliff and the general disarray of the Blazers have all contributed to this. The numbers look pretty similar, but it’s worth remembering that Przybilla was just huge at the end of last season and hasn’t put together an extended stretch like that this year.

Sam Cassell
2003-2004: 19.8/2.7/5.1, 1.3 steals, 0.9 3s, 49% in 35.0 mpg
2004-2004: 13.5/2.7/5.1, 0.6 steals, 0.5 3s, 46% in 25.8 mpg
2005-2006: 17.5/3.6/6.4, 0.9 steals, 0.9 3s, 45% in 34.6 mpg

Now here’s one we probably should have seen coming. Cassell is a guy who always has contract on the mind, and giving him the reigns in L.A. in a walk year has predictably led to a nice comeback year, and should assure him of a well-deserved pay day.

We’ll take a look at some more later in the week.

George Mason is in the Final Four and its no April Fool’s joke. Here’s a short and sweet look at the NBA this week guys. Preview for 4/3-4/9.

Four Games: Atlanta, Boston, Detroit, Golden State, Houston, Indiana, LAC, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Orleans, New York, Philadelphia, Sacramento, San Antonio, Toronto, Washington.
Three Games: Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, LAL, Memphis, Orlando, Phoenix, Portland, Seattle, Utah.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Derek Fisher, PG – New rule: Never draft Baron Davis. Just take his veteran backup in the later rounds… he’ll be more productive. The pride of Little Rock, Ark., Derek Fisher has just been great as a starter this season: 15/3/7 with 2 thefts and 1.3 treys.

Nenad Kristic, F/C – Playing the best ball of his career right now, making major contributions during the Nets’ current 11-game win streak. The 22-year-old Yugo is averaging 16/9/2 over his last dozen games. He’s got nice matchups against four weak defenses this week (ATL, CHA, CLE, @MIL).

Luther Head, G – Some player raters have the rookie ranked ahead of Jason Terry, Jason Richardson, and Tim Duncan for their performance over the last two weeks. It’s a short period, but Luther has posted 14/5/4 with 1.4 threes, 1.7 steals, and great percentages (48%FG, 83%FT) over that span.

Delonte West, PG – Right back on track after struggling earlier this month with a groin strain. 14/4/5, 1.2 steals and 1.2 treys since returning to Boston’s starting lineup. What a delight to have in your lineup!

Chris Duhon, PG – Four consectutive starts and six straight games scoring in double figures. The former Blue Devil started off hot this season and may be looking to finish the year on a high note as well.

Bonzi Wells, G/F – Kevin Martin has sat out the last 5 games for some reason (he’s not listed on the Kings’ injury report), and Bonzi Wells, though still hobbled a bit by his groin injury, is back in the starting lineup and getting consistent minutes. Bonzi led Sacramento with 22 points and 9 boards in last night’s win over Golden State.

Charlie Villanueva, PF and Morris Peterson, G/F – Warning: Contents may be extremely hot. As if you needed me to tell you. Career highs of 48 and 38 points, respectively, this past week. Plug ‘em in fools.

Etan Thomas, F/C and Toni Kukoc, F – If you’re in a VERY deep league… and really desperate. Well, probably not.