Even before switching teams, Mike James was one of the most difficult players to get a read on for this year’s fantasy draft. Let’s run down the facts, in exciting outline form!

- He had by far the greatest season of his career last year at age 30.

- He absolutely blew up after the All-Star Break, putting up first-round pick numbers (24.6/6.5, with 2.9 3’s and 1.2 steals), seeing 40.9 mpg.

- The only other time in his career that he saw even 30 mpg was 2003, when he played in 55 games for Boston (he also spent some time that year with Detroit). In those 30.6 mpg, he put up a paltry 10.47/4.4 with 1.6 3’s and 1.3 steals.

- He wasn’t the only Raptor to have a career year simply by being on the court all the time. After Jalen Rose got dealt:

— Morris Peterson also saw career-high numbers. Peterson played 43 mpg after the All-Star Break, scored 20.7 ppg and hit 2.5 threes. Easily the best numbers of his career.

— Charlie Villanueva got 10 more mpg after the break as well, up from 25 to 35, and saw a nice uptick in stats as a result.

— Even Matt Bonner had a nice second half for the Raptors, seeing 26.3 mpg, and hitting 1.8 3’s.

Here at FBB, we preach one stat over all others – minutes. And the post-Rose deal Raptors are a perfect example of how court time dictates fantasy value. All of the guys above saw a huge increase in value simply by having minutes open up for them. So even with all the concerns about age and one-hit-wonder possibilities, let try and figure out how many mpg Mike James will see in his new digs.

(Quick aside: this was a moronic choice by James. His other two options? Play in his home town with Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, or play for a perennial championship contender in Dallas. The 4th year of the deal was so important that he had to go to Minnesota, the perennial underachievers? Whatever.)

Remember, his big minutes last year were just as much a result of no competition as they were a result of his strong play. Jose Calderon was injured for much of March and April, leaving James and Derrick “Who?” Martin to run the point. At the two, Peterson saw a lot of time, but MoPete also played the 3 some, giving James time to play at shooting guard as well. But the minutes will not be as available in Minnesota.

First, there are two established veterans in the back court, Marko Jaric and Troy Hudson. Then, there’s rookie Randy Foye, who’s been playing very well in the summer league, but is more of a two than a one. Finally, guys like Ricky Davis and Trenton Hassell can play the two on occasion. So it’s pretty likely that James will rarely, if ever, play much at shooting guard, and he’ll be fighting for time at the point.

That said, Marcus Banks walked into a similar situation last year (insert Rashad McCants, now injured, in place of Foye), and saw 30 mpg, and played pretty well while doing so. But 30 mpg isn’t 40 mpg. And James won’t be the floor leader like he was in Toronto, that job is unquestionably KG’s.

So after all that, what do I think?

I think James sees somewhere between 25 and 33 mpg. I think he’ll put up something like 16/4 with 2 threes and 1 or 1.5 steals. He’ll be a nice second PG, and worth taking in the 5th to 7th rounds in your draft. But, I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone take him in the 4th or even the 3rd after his huge second half last year. That person just won’t be me.

Chicago Bulls trade Tyson Chandler to NOK Hornets for PJ Brown and JR Smith.

This is great news for Chandler, as he moves away from a crowded front court into a wide open one. He has yet to average 30 mpg, despite his massive contract extension, but that could change now. And if it does, you could be looking at your new leading rebounder in the NBA. Tyson was tied with Dwight Howard last year for highest rebounds per 48 minutes with 16.2. If he gets 35 mpg, he’ll be one of the top rebounders in the league – he was close to that last year with just 26.8 mpg. I have already mentioned that I’m not much of a fan of Hilton Armstrong, so 35 mpg is a fairly reasonable estimate for Tyson.

The real question for Chandler is his offense. I really think that his putrid scoring numbers were more a result of the system in Chicago than his inabilities. Remember, his second year in the league he scored 9.2 ppg on 53% shooting. He’s certainly capable of putting the ball in the basket, but he just got on Scott Skiles’ bad side last year (which has happened to others before). Look for his scoring to return to near double digits in NOK. I think Chandler has the potential to be a nice mid-round sleeper this year and could have a breakout year.

As for Brown and Smith, they’ll be nothing more than role players in Chicago. Brown may have been draftable in NOK, but not in Chicago where he’ll be fighting Ben Wallace, Tyrus Thomas, and others for PT. Smith may eventually be a nice NBA player, but it’s going to take some injuries to the guys in front of him for him to have fantasy value this year.

Detroit Pistons sign Nazr Mohammed

Mohammed has been the model of consistency over the last five years. In Atlanta, New York, and San Antonio, he’s been a guy that teams could count on to eat minutes at center, and do it somewhat productively. He’s been counted on for anywhere from 15-25 mpg depending on the situation, and provides some rebounding and some scoring, but that’s about it. I think that he’ll continue doing that in Detroit. He’s always been a borderline fantasy guy, and unless there’s an injury to one of the Pistons’ other frontcourt guys, that should be the situation here, too.

What the Wallace-for-Mohammed also does is opens up more PT (potentially) for Antonio McDyess. McDyess might get his minutes kept to the 20 or so per game that he’s been seeing simply to keep him healthy. But he could also get into the 6th man of the year award discussion if he starts seeing 30 mpg. McDyess could be a decent late-round choice in drafts, or a guy to watch for an early waiver-wire pickup next year.

Portland Trail Blazers resign Joel Przybilla

Przybilla may have stayed in place, but the pieces around him have been moving in a whirlwind. Exit Theo Ratliff, but enter Raef LaFrentz and LaMarcus Aldridge. Nik Tskitishvili came and went. Brian Skinner is still around. So why would his stats change all that much? He’ll continue to be a blocks machine and contribute a bit in rebounding, but as things stand right now he’s not going to see much more in the way of minutes. Portland is probably not done dealing, though, so this is a wait-and-see.

Dallas Mavericks trade Marquis Daniels to Indiana Pacers for Austin Croshere

Marquis Daniels immediately becomes everyone’s favorite sleeper this year with this move away from the Mavericks, but I’m not buying it. Other than steals, Daniels hasn’t shown himself to really be much of a fantasy asset even when getting 28 mpg. Look at last December, when he saw 35 mpg in Dallas. He shined in a few games, but his final stats for the month – 14.4/4.7/3.7 with 1 steal and .4 blocks – weren’t all that much to write home about. Sure he’ll be worth drafting and – probably – worth starting as a utility guy, but he doesn’t excel in any one category. I would hold off until the late rounds before taking him. DM would disagree. We’ll see.

As for Croshere, he’ll fill Keith Van Horn’s role – 20 mpg, not much value. Even with all the injury and suspension issues the Pacers have had over the past few years, Croshere has not managed to hold any real value, and that shouldn’t change here.

Golden State Warriors trade Derek Fisher to Utah for some scrubs.

I’m not going to talk about how terrible the Warriors are. This isn’t the place for that – let’s just look at the fantasy implications. Fisher in Utah, he’ll be a nice role player for them and could have some fantasy value. But it will be stretch for him to get more than the 31 mpg he got last year in Golden State, and odds are he’ll see closer to 25, meaning he’s more likely to be waiver wire fodder.

What this really means in Golden State is that if/when Baron Davis goes down again, Monta Ellis will be given the keys to the ship. I don’t think you can draft him necessarily, but when Davis goes down, he should be picked up immediately. We know he’s quick, and he should be able to contribute in steals, but his percentages and turnovers were pretty bad last year. We’ll have to see how much he improves over the summer before really passing judgement.

Three days into the free agency period, I think we can agree that “very likely to return” doesn’t mean a whole lot, as Ben Wallace looks to be the newest member of the Bulls. It’s always fun when a signing like this shakes things up, and it’s another example of one team you can’t really blame for not wanting to overpay and another team who has no reason not to.

The Pistons recent success was built on a well-balanced team, both on the court and in the books. But after a team wins, the players want their share. It was initially reported that Wallace accepted at 4-year, $52 million deal from the Bulls after turning down $48 million from the Pistons, but it now looks like the deal from the Bulls is worth closer to $60 million, which makes a whole lot more sense. It just would have been very odd to see the Pistons pass on Wallace for a difference of just $4 million, especially in a league where guys like Dan Gadzuric and Etan Thomas sign $37 million deals.

Like the Stojakovic situation, it will be more interesting to see what the team losing the star does rather than what the star will do in his new digs. One of the first things that comes to mind with Wallace’s departure from Detroit is, “Gee, it really would be nice to have Darko Mlicic around right now.” That trade didn’t make much sense then — Kelvin Cato sure helped them out, didn’t he? — and it looks even worse now after Milicic showed flashes of that potential in Orlando. The Pistons will bring another big man into the mix. They really have no choice, as they simply can’t go into the season with Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess and Dale Davis as their only three bigs. Joel Przybilla and Nazr Mohammed are really the only centers out there, unless you count my main man Jackie Butler, who is a restricted free agent. Word is they’re already going after Przybilla and I’d be surprised if Joe Dumars didn’t get his man. He would be as good a fit as possible at this point, someone who could crash the boards, block some shots and not slow the team down too much on offense. Check out the p40 averages for Wallace and Przybilla last year.

Wallace: 8.3/12.8/2.2 with 2.0 steals, 2.5 blocks, 51% FG on 6.4 attempts
Przybilla: 9.9/11.2/1.2 with .6 steals, 3.7 blocks, 55% FG on 6.9 attempts

Just saying that from a fantasy perspective, if Przybilla replaces Wallace in the middle, the numbers might not be too far off. Przybilla’s never averaged even 25 mpg, so his ability to play big minutes is in question. And he’s not even on the team yet, so let’s deal with that if and when it happens. Antonio McDyess is likely to see a bigger role, but you know that the Pistons would love to keep him coming off the bench in order to keep him as healthy as he’s been.

Word out of Chicago was that this was a Reinsdorf deal, not a Paxson deal, and if the 4-year/$60 million are true, that would make sense. Reinsdorf probably figures he has the money to spend, it’s his money, his team gave the eventual champions fits in the playoffs, why not go for it now? It would make sense to explore a Tyson Chandler deal now, but it’s no sure thing he’ll be moved. It’s not like Mike Sweetney has earned the trust of Scott Skiles, Othella Harrington is a bench player and Tyrus Thomas will need some time to adjust. Dealing Chandler might be the Bulls only way to add another significant player, though, as it looks like they’ve spent almost all of their cap space on Wallace.

Wallace in Chicago? It should look a lot like Wallace in Detroit. Maybe they’ll give him a few more looks on offense, but it’s pretty well established the type of player he is. Is he in a decline? It looks more like he has declined. His 01-03 seasons were when he was an otherwordly force in boards and blocks. Now he’s merely dominant. His PER rating has stayed remarkably consistent over the past three seasons (17.39, 17.52, 17.54). His p40 averages over the past three seasons:

03-04: 10.1/13.2/1.8, 1.9 steals, 3.2 blocks
04-05: 10.8/13.5/1.8, 1.6 steals, 2.6 blocks
05-06: 8.3/12.8/2.2, 2.0 steals, 2.5 blocks

Of course, the big question is how will Wallace’s minutes be affected by Scott Skiles. Kirk Hinrich has been the only player in Chicago to get 35+ minutes consistently in Chicago the past few seasons. But a lot of Skiles’ maneuvering was because he had a young team and liked to shake things up and keep everyone on their toes. Next year’s squad will be expected to compete from the beginning, though, and maybe Skiles will have a more defined rotation from the outset. Maybe.

Speedy Claxton finds instant value as the starting PG in Atlanta. It’s a great situation he’s heading into; after all, this is a team that started Royal Ivey in the backcourt for 66 games last year. He should see considerable minutes, but the Hawks might try to keep him in the 30-35 range since Claxton’s never managed to make through a season without missing at least 10 games with injury. If you take his stats over the past two seasons and prorate them out to 33 mpg you get 13.4/3.2/6.1 with 1.8 steals. It seems reasonable to expect that from Claxton in the ATL next season. He should be a solid #2 PG, but his injury history makes him a slight risk.

Claxton’s arrival should dent Joe Johnson’s value a bit. Johnson spent a lot of time at the point last year and came through with a very strong 6.5 apg, placing him right in between Kirk Hinrich and T.J. Ford, for comparison. It will be very tough to repeat that number with Claxton around. Johnson will still have plenty of value and can likely be considered toward the end of the second round.

Keeping an eye on who’s gaining and losing value as players switch teams …

Milwaukee Bucks trade TJ Ford to Toronto Raptors for Charlie Villanueva

This is a nice move for Ford, who had a mini-breakout year last year. He will be given the keys to the show in Toronto, who will be looking for scoring from Ford as Mike James will likely be elsewhere. I’d expect a slight uptick in points to maybe somewhere in the 15-16 range, and maybe even a few more threes as well.

I’m not sure that this is a great deal for Villanueva. In Toronto he was developing nicely as a sidekick for Chris Bosh, and with James leaving he could easily have been the second-leading scorer for the Raptors. Still, he should see at least 30 mpg in Milwaukee and get his fair share of threes, steals, and blocks, meaning he’ll maintain his calue from last year, if not improve on it slightly.

The big question still out there is whether or not the Bucks are really willing to head into the season with Mo Williams and Charlie Bell as their only options at the point. Look for them to get a point guard back when they inevitably trade Jamaal Magloire.

Los Angeles Lakers sign Vladimir Radmanovic

Radmanovic is going to keep being himself – a stay outside, shoot threes, don’t rebound seven-footer. At this point we know what we can expect, and it’s not worth hoping for a breakout year from VladRad anymore. Still, when he’s on, he can pour in two triples a night, and that makes him worth drafting, particularly now that he’s playing next to Kobe Bryant. Kobe does have a knack for drawing defenders off the perimeter, opening up threes for his teammates – just ask Smush Parker and Brian Cook, two guys who would be virtually useless if they didn’t have Kobe dishing them the ball on the perimiter. Vlad might post a career-high in threes, but to ask for any other value from him is just unrealistic at this point.

Los Angeles Clippers sign Tim Thomas

It only takes one sucker team to make Tim Thomas an overpaid, underachieving player. And just when you thought the Clippers were done being suckers, they came through and overpaid for Thomas, giving him $6 Million a year for 4 years. Keep in mind, this is a guy who the Bulls didn’t even want hanging around in the locker room. But after three good months with the Suns (where, honestly, everyone plays great), that was enough for the Clips to throw out some pretty big bucks. Thomas will take over where Vladimir Radmanovic left off, and if he can stay motivated will be a borderline fantasy player. Odds are he will continue his on-again, off-again relationship with your league’s waiver wire, showing potential every so often, but never really establishing himself as a consistent asset.

Peja Stokavoic’s signing with New Orleans is a surprise, but in lots of ways it makes sense. The Hornets had some money to spend and when a team like that has the cash (”a team like that” meaning not your typical top free agent destination), they have to use it when the opportunity presents itself. For all the times we heard it was a lock that Stojakovic was returning to Indiana, it never made all that much sense. His total disappearance, due to injury, in the playoffs certainly couldn’t have been looked upon too fondly and the team has spent its last two first round picks on SFs. Indiana may have a big hole in their offense next season, but they smartly didn’t give a near-max contract to a 29-year old player who has had a single great season in his career and has been rather ordinary the past two seasons. John Holinger’s PER stat isn’t the end-all, be-all for a player’s value but it was good enough to recognize LeBron James, Paul Pierce and Carmelo Anthony as the top three SFs in the league last year. Stojakovic ranked 15th at the position, right in between Hedo Turkoglu and Ruben Patterson. Just sayin’…

Granted, Stojakovic looked more like his old self during his time in Indiana, with his FG% returning to a respectable level while showing an increased tenacity on the boards. But even in a league where you have to overpay to get players, paying $13 million per season for a guy like Stojakovic, who isn’t going to get any better from here on out, seems a bit much. All that said, it does make the Hornets a pretty intriguing team next season, and has some very serious fantasy implications on both teams.

The Hornets have their superstar in Chris Paul and now have two legitimate complementary near-stars in Stojakovic and David West. The fact that Paul and West are still on their bargain rookie contracts makes Stojakovic’s contract more reasonable for the Hornets. When it’s time for West and then Paul to receive extenstions, then things might get complicated. Those three should provide a vast majority of the offense for the Hornets next year. Having a reliable (hopefully) outside shooter like Stojakovic should make Paul even more effective. As a second-year player, he’s a legitimate second-round pick. Lots of people were waiting for West to slow down as the year went on, but it never happened. West doesn’t project as a dominant offensive player — he topped 25 points just four times last season — so it’s not like Stojakovic’s presence should have an adverse affect on his numbers. Instead, he should be able to continue to go about his business and be an especially strong #3 option. I do think he may be a bit overrated on draft day, just because he lacks a dominant secondary skill and you can’t count on him to shoot 51% again.

What can we expect from Peja? It would be best if when looking at his career line you could cross out 2003-2004. All it’s good for is clouding your judgment. He established career highs that season in points, rebounds, steals, 3PM and minutes. Maybe he’ll do it again, but there’s no reason to count on it. It would be fair to expect 20/6/2 with 2.5 3s. You might want to project more, and he might be able to pump in a few more points and 3s, but it’s probably time to stop expecting another 03-04, or at least drafting that way. Basically, what he did with Indiana last season is a pretty good idea of what to expect next year. And don’t forget that it often takes players a bit of time to adjust to a new environment. Joe Johnson was a big disappointment last Novemeber before turning it on in December and maintaining that pace for the rest of the year.

The real fantasy intrigue is back on Indiana. It would be shocking if Jermaine O’Neal went anywhere and he’ll remain the top option, although his fragility the past couple years may make you think twice before spending a second round pick on him. Stephen Jackson is the apparent #2 option, but that’s just not a role he’s best suited for, at least for a team that considers itself a serious playoff contender. He’s good, but just not that good. He’s still a mid-round pick. I’m excited for Danny Granger’s potential, but I won’t be the only one. Granger’s rookie season didn’t look all that special– he finished an ordinary 115th on the Player Rater — but he did that while receiving just 22.6 mpg. He reminds me of Shane Battier in his ability to contribute just a bit in 3s, steals and blocks; with more minutes and his expected improvement, he’s a threat to be a 1-1-1 guy. (It’s worth noting that after taking just 93 3s in 78 regular season games, Granger attempted 16 — while making 9 — in just 6 postseason contests.) Prorate Granger’s rookie stats out to 34 mpg and you get 11.3/7.4/1.8 with 0.6 3s, 1.1 steals and 1.2 blocks. And there’s no reason why he shouldn’t get better. It’s never the safest strategy to draft a ton of guys and then need them to post better numbers than they ever have in the past to justify their draft position. And all it takes is one overeager person in your league in love with the upside of youngsters to turn Granger from a bargain into a bust. Reaching rarely works out. But Granger has a real chance to emerge as one of those do-it-all SFs that are becoming more common around the league.

Of course, it remains to be seen what the Pacers are up to over the rest of the summer. Al Harrington could be back in the fold, and that might render all that Granger talk a moot point. The Pacers are definitely in need of someone who can put some points on the board, and it doesn’t look like that answer is going to come from within. Fred Jones and Sarunas Jasikevicius are nice players, but haven’t really shown they’re reliable top offensive options, and Granger’s not really a scorer either. Expect the Pacers to make a move, but someone on the squad right now is likely going to have to step it up regardless.

While most sites see NBA teams as the ‘winners’ or ‘losers’ in the draft, we think about things in terms of the players drafted. We’re not concerned, for example, with whether or not Cedric Simmons will help New Orleans make the playoffs next season, we’re concerned with whether or not he’s going to see 30 mpg and have any fantasy value. So with that, let’s see which players found themselves in a great situation, and which players might want to invest in a seat warmer:

Winners:

Adam Morrison, CHA – of the 6 or 7 places he could have gone, Charlotte is undoubtedly the best spot for him. This is a team who is dying for a leader on offense, and Morrison is going to be that man sooner rather than later. Remember, their leading scorer last year was Gerald Wallace, who only put up 15.2 per game, the lowest of any team leader, so they have points to share. Heck, even Jumaine Jones averaged double digits last year for the Cats, something he’d never done in his first 7 years in the league. Morrison is a safe bet for 15-20 points, and a good source of threes, and is my odds-on favorite for the Rookie of the Year. The only question will be if he can contribute anything other than points and threes. Look for stats similar to Rip Hamilton this year.

Shelden Williams, ATL – Williams right now reminds me of Charlie Villanueva last year – a guy who is certainly capable of stepping in and contributing right away, but because he got taken two or three picks before where he “should” have gone, he’s gotten a ton a negative press. This leads to a “steal” opportunity in your fantasy draft. There’s no reason he can’t step in and put up numbers similar to Emeka Okafor’s first year – 15/10 with 1.7 blocks. Combine that with his center eligibility, and Williams could be worthy of ‘first rookie taken’ in your fantasy draft.

Hilton Armstrong, NOK – First, a disclaimer – I don’t like Armstrong as a prospect. I mean, he’s a senior who has never really done all that much except block a bunch of shots his senior year. Prior to that he had trouble even cracking the rotation. Still, if he’s going to land anywhere, Oklahoma City is a great spot. Right now, he’s number one on the depth chart, which is tough for any of the mid-round guys to say. Whether he’ll play well enough to hold on to that spot is another question entirely, but the fact that he’s in with the Hornets means he’ll be worth a late flyer on draft day.

Randy Foye, MIN – Another guy that I don’t really like all that much but who landed in a great spot, Foye could easily see 25-30 mpg right off the bat, especially with Rashad McCants going down with an injury. Foye, to me, was really overhyped going into the draft – a big-time scorer who shoots 41% from the field? really? – but that doesn’t mean he won’t be on the court getting open looks from KG. He’ll be worth a risk in the draft this year as well.

Losers:

Tyrus Thomas, CHI – If there’s one thing Scott Skiles likes to do, it’s play with his lineups. And with Tyson Chandler, Michael Sweetney, and Malik Allen already on the roster, plus the likely signing of either Joel Przybilla, Ben Wallace, or Al Harrington, the Bulls have plenty of options up front. Thomas will be a project in Chicago, meaning he’ll see no more than 15-20 mpg his rookie year, and not have any fantasy value for a while.

Patrick O’Bryant, GSW – Two years ago, in the late lottery, the Warriors took a project big in Andris Biedrins. Last year, in the late lottery they took a project big in Ike Diogu. So this year, late in the lottery, they take a project big in O’Bryant. While Biedrins and Diogu have shown flashes, neither is worth drafting this year in fantasy leagues. O’Bryant shouldn’t be any different.

To Be Determined:

Brandon Roy and LeMarcus Aldridge, POR – Roy was my favorite player in the draft, and when he got drafted by Minnesota, I was thrilled, and instantly thought he’d be a leading candidate for ROY. In Portland, though, I’m not so sure. I mean, sure he’s still a great player, and I really like a lot of what Portland did on draft day, but the fact is that it’s a crowded rotation with very few veterans who know how to act like veterans. Aldridge is in a slightly better position because with Theo Ratliff gone and Przybilla likely gone, there’s not much in the way of centers. But with Zack Randolph and Darius Miles on the trading block in a major way, it’s a tough call right now. Let’s see how the next few months play out in Portland.

Andrea Bargnani, TOR – Now that Toronto has moved Charlie Villanueva for TJ Ford, things look a lot better for Bargnani in his first year. The fact is, though, we just don’t know enough about Bargnani. It’ll be interesting to see how he does in the summer leagues and in the preseason – that will go a long way towards determining his fantasy draft value.