Welcome to the brand-spankin’ new site of Fantasy Basketblog.  We’re still getting accustomed to our new digs, and once we get settled we’ll hopefully have some fancy new features for you.

But don’t worry, the bread-and-butter of FBB will still be rants about fantasy basketball.  And I figured, what better way to start off the new site than with a debate over who’s the top pick in this year’s draft?  It’s been quite a while since we’ve seen so many players who have legitimate shots at being the first pick.  For years, Kevin Garnett was the hands-down top pick, but last year LeBron James was often the top choice.  This year, there’s a handful of players that are going to be candidates for that top spot.  With apologies to Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant, here are the top four players in the running for pick number one, starting with my least favorite and moving to the top:
 

4. Kevin Garnett, F, MIN.
Garnett could easily slip to 3 or 4 in a lot of drafts this year, and make no mistake, he’s an absolute bargain at those spots.  He took a slight hit in assists last year, and an inconsequential drop in rebounds, but he’s still immensely valuable from a fantasy standpoint.  Here’s what’s working against him versus the next three guys on this list: His most valuable assets are his points and rebounds, which are by far the easiest categories to pick up late in the draft.  He’s the only guy on this list over 30 years old, and since he’s been in the league for 11 years already could be starting to face the down side of his career.  (As a frame of reference, Moses Malone saw his career numbers slip right around this age.)  KG’s ability to keep it moving will be a very interesting thing to watch over the next few years as he’s the posterchild for bigs out of high school.  Still, if he went number one in your league, I can’t argue with that.  His history speaks for itself.
 

3. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, DAL
Can you imagine how valuable Dirk would be if he still qualified at center?  Ah, those were the days.  Nonetheless, Dirk has blossomed over the past few seasons into a top player both in real life and in fantasy basketball.  Despite the lack of big-time defensive numbers, Nowitzki gets the nod over KG because of his 3’s from the PF position and his unbelievable efforts from the line last year.  Let’s put this in perspective.  Dirk’s 90.1% from the line last year was 4^th best in the league.  Of the top twenty FT shooters in the league, only two – Dirk and Yao Ming – qualified at either PF or C.  Out of those same top twenty players, only two – Dirk and Kobe Bryant – shot over 7 FT’s per game.  Now, he won’t shoot over 90% from the line every year, but he’s consistently in the upper eighties, which is good enough for me.  Even better, he won’t hurt you anywhere – his 2.8 apg aren’t great, but for a big man they’re at least adequate, and his defensive stats should each be at or over 1 per game each.
 

2. Shawn Marion, F, PHO
I know, he’s not a big name.  Your 10 year old brother (nephew? grandson?) knows all about Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki – but he might not know much about the Matrix.  But that’s why you beat him in fantasy basketball every year!  Let’s face the facts – Marion was number one on the player rater last year, and was number three the year before.  That’s the best, um, two-year stretch of anyone.  But you get my point.  He’s consistently amongst the cream of the crop among fantasy players, and every year his owner has to be pleasantly surprised.  His combination of threes, steals, and blocks is just too valuable to pass up for either of the guys behind him on this list.  He is a major plus in every single category besides assists, and last year was a pretty off year for him in FT but he still was above 80%.  The return of Amare Stoudamire will supposedly cut into some of his stats, but two years ago with Amare and Joe Johnson, he was still a stud.  Why should Amare and Boris Diaw be any different?
 

1.  LeBron James, SF, CLE
Granted, he doesn’t qualify at PG anymore.  And in many respects he was less valuable last year than he was the year before.  But LeBron is the only guy out of this group with the potential to completely break away from the pack.  Any of these guys could end up being the most valuable fantasy player this year, but LeBron still has a chance to be other-worldly.  There’s still hope of him averaging a triple-double, or 35 points, or something ridiculous like that.  Plus, he’s the most exciting player to own in the game today.  He’s ALWAYS on television, he’s always being talked about, he’s always on the highlight reels.  And while that’s not necessarily going to help you in the standings, it makes fantasy basketball that much more fun.  And when nothing else really separates these guys, that’s enough to put LeBron at number one. 

One of the most frustrating things in fantasy basketball is the seemingly arbitrary ways that players are assigned positions. What dictates a SG versus a G versus a SF versus a F versus a GF … well, let’s just say it’s tough to figure out. And while we don’t always agree with Yahoo!’s decisions (Yahoo! is, by the way, the preferred provider of fantasy services for FBB), we have to live with them.

A players position is often a huge deal in terms of his overall value, especially for borderline guys. And rookies can always be borderline guys. So, while things are moving slowly in the NBA right now, I thought it would be a good idea to see which rooks have gained and lost value based on what position Yahoo! has determined that they play:

On Guard!
Apparently, Yahoo! has decided that nobody is just a point guard or just a shooting guard in their rookie season. So, in addition to pure point guards Rajon Rondo, Marcus Williams, and Jordan Farmar, the rookie “Point Guard-Eligible” class includes: Brandon Roy, Randy Foye, Ronnie Brewer, Thabo Sefolosha, Kyle Lowry, Shannon Brown, and Maurice Ager. All of these guys have “G” status, meaning they can be plugged in at PG or SG. With point guards always at a major premium, this means that draftable 2-guards like Roy and Foye become a touch more valuable. And it also means that guys who might possibly be draftable like Brewer or Brown become a little more tempting in the final rounds.

“Big” Losers
Remember how I was all pumped about Shelden Williams going to the Hawks? And I thought he’d have value as a C this year? Well, maybe it’s better that you don’t remember when I say stuff like that. Because not only has Williams sucked so bad in summer league that the Hawks had to sign Lorenzen Wright, but Shelden won’t even qualify at center to start the season. Yahoo! has pegged him as a F. Yeah, we’ll see how much he plays at the 3 this year.

Apparently, qualifying at center is a tough proposition in Yahoo!’s eyes, because Williams isn’t the only lottery pick to be relegated to “F” status. LaMarcus Aldridge has also been kicked out of the list of rookie centers, along with Mouhamed Saer Sene. Not that either of them should have much value this year, but this makes them both completely undraftable.

“Big” Winners
So who does qualify at C among the first-rounders? Two guys that you would expect – Patrick O’Bryant and Hilton Armstrong – as well as two that you wouldn’t. Josh Boone, though injured, as well as Cedric Simmons have both been awarded “FC” status for no apparent reason.

Remember, things can change during the year, and many of these guys could be GFs or FC by December. But things like roster flexibility are really important when looking for that one rookie sleeper. Good luck.

Perhaps the second-worst kept secret in basketball (behind the still-not-completed Al Harrington to Indiana deal), Jamaal Magloire finally got dealt to the Trail Blazers over the weekend. With four guys moving in the deal, and pretty serious PT implications for both teams, let’s look at the winners and losers from a fantasy perspective:

Big Winners:

Jarrett Jack, POR – In just a few short weeks, Jack has seen his competition for minutes in the Portland backcourt turn from lottery pick Sebastian Telfair and super-reliable Steve Blake to rookie Sergio Rodriguez and 13th-man Dan Dickau. Jack had a solid, if unspectacular, rookie campaign, and showed improvement throughout the year. The big question mark for Jack from a fantasy perspective is if he be able to contribute anywhere other than points and assists. His percentages are just average, he doesn’t shoot much from the arc (and only hit 26% from there last year), and he doesn’t show a great penchant for steals, a real downside for a point guard. Still, now that he’s got the keys to the ship, he’s a nice candidate for 30 mpg and could be a nice sleeper as a second or third point guard.

Andrew Bogut, MIL – Bogut is a great candidate for a breakout player this year, and the only question is if he’ll be over-hyped in your league and get drafted too early. Swapping Magloire for Ha Seung Jin and Brian Skinner in the front court means that Bogut will be counted on to play upwards of 35 mpg for the Bucks this year. Combine the uptick in minutes with the extra experience and Bogut is in line to become one of the most solid centers in the league. He doesn’t block a ton of shots, but he is a double-double waiting to happen, steals at a decent rate, and even passes very well for a center (2.3 apg last year). If you can get him as a second center, that’s a great pickup, but most likely he’ll be drafted as a first center by someone in your league. I’m not sure he’s earned that yet, but it’s a good gamble.

Big Losers:

Joel Przybilla/Jamaal Magloire, POR: Ah, nothing like two marginally decent centers on the same team to cancel each other’s value. Magloire showed that he can play next to another center when he did so with Bogut in Milwaukee, but that was because Bogut could, on occasion, move to the four. Przybilla is strictly a center, and so these guys will be in a pretty serious battle for PT in training camp. This is a wait-and-see situation, for now.

Steve Blake/Charlie Bell/Mo Williams, MIL – As always, we need to put in the disclaimer that here at FBB, we love us some Stevie Blake. We’re UMD alums, he was our favorite player while we were there, and if we were running an NBA team he would be our starting PG and get 40 mpg. That said, we are not running an NBA team. More specifically, we are not running the Milwaukee Bucks. So he won’t see 40 mpg. Still, the Bucks supposedly really held out for Blake during negotiations, meaning that they weren’t happy with just Bell and Williams at the point. So Blake will have a role, but likely not enough of one to have value, while he’ll also take away any chance of value from the incumbent guys.

Minor Winners:

Brandon Roy, POR – less people in the backcourt means more time for Roy, who actually could see some time at the point now.

Charlie Villanueva, MIL – Despite the crowd, Magloire saw 30 mpg last year, and now those minutes are for C-Vill to have.

Minor Losers:

LaMarcus Aldridge, POR – Wasn’t likely to have value anyways, but this should seal the deal.