Who’s Number One?
August 24th, 2006 12:18 pm

Welcome to the brand-spankin’ new site of Fantasy Basketblog.  We’re still getting accustomed to our new digs, and once we get settled we’ll hopefully have some fancy new features for you.

But don’t worry, the bread-and-butter of FBB will still be rants about fantasy basketball.  And I figured, what better way to start off the new site than with a debate over who’s the top pick in this year’s draft?  It’s been quite a while since we’ve seen so many players who have legitimate shots at being the first pick.  For years, Kevin Garnett was the hands-down top pick, but last year LeBron James was often the top choice.  This year, there’s a handful of players that are going to be candidates for that top spot.  With apologies to Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant, here are the top four players in the running for pick number one, starting with my least favorite and moving to the top:
 

4. Kevin Garnett, F, MIN.
Garnett could easily slip to 3 or 4 in a lot of drafts this year, and make no mistake, he’s an absolute bargain at those spots.  He took a slight hit in assists last year, and an inconsequential drop in rebounds, but he’s still immensely valuable from a fantasy standpoint.  Here’s what’s working against him versus the next three guys on this list: His most valuable assets are his points and rebounds, which are by far the easiest categories to pick up late in the draft.  He’s the only guy on this list over 30 years old, and since he’s been in the league for 11 years already could be starting to face the down side of his career.  (As a frame of reference, Moses Malone saw his career numbers slip right around this age.)  KG’s ability to keep it moving will be a very interesting thing to watch over the next few years as he’s the posterchild for bigs out of high school.  Still, if he went number one in your league, I can’t argue with that.  His history speaks for itself.
 

3. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, DAL
Can you imagine how valuable Dirk would be if he still qualified at center?  Ah, those were the days.  Nonetheless, Dirk has blossomed over the past few seasons into a top player both in real life and in fantasy basketball.  Despite the lack of big-time defensive numbers, Nowitzki gets the nod over KG because of his 3’s from the PF position and his unbelievable efforts from the line last year.  Let’s put this in perspective.  Dirk’s 90.1% from the line last year was 4th best in the league.  Of the top twenty FT shooters in the league, only two – Dirk and Yao Ming – qualified at either PF or C.  Out of those same top twenty players, only two – Dirk and Kobe Bryant – shot over 7 FT’s per game.  Now, he won’t shoot over 90% from the line every year, but he’s consistently in the upper eighties, which is good enough for me.  Even better, he won’t hurt you anywhere – his 2.8 apg aren’t great, but for a big man they’re at least adequate, and his defensive stats should each be at or over 1 per game each.
 

2. Shawn Marion, F, PHO
I know, he’s not a big name.  Your 10 year old brother (nephew? grandson?) knows all about Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki – but he might not know much about the Matrix.  But that’s why you beat him in fantasy basketball every year!  Let’s face the facts – Marion was number one on the player rater last year, and was number three the year before.  That’s the best, um, two-year stretch of anyone.  But you get my point.  He’s consistently amongst the cream of the crop among fantasy players, and every year his owner has to be pleasantly surprised.  His combination of threes, steals, and blocks is just too valuable to pass up for either of the guys behind him on this list.  He is a major plus in every single category besides assists, and last year was a pretty off year for him in FT but he still was above 80%.  The return of Amare Stoudamire will supposedly cut into some of his stats, but two years ago with Amare and Joe Johnson, he was still a stud.  Why should Amare and Boris Diaw be any different?
 

1.  LeBron James, SF, CLE
Granted, he doesn’t qualify at PG anymore.  And in many respects he was less valuable last year than he was the year before.  But LeBron is the only guy out of this group with the potential to completely break away from the pack.  Any of these guys could end up being the most valuable fantasy player this year, but LeBron still has a chance to be other-worldly.  There’s still hope of him averaging a triple-double, or 35 points, or something ridiculous like that.  Plus, he’s the most exciting player to own in the game today.  He’s ALWAYS on television, he’s always being talked about, he’s always on the highlight reels.  And while that’s not necessarily going to help you in the standings, it makes fantasy basketball that much more fun.  And when nothing else really separates these guys, that’s enough to put LeBron at number one. 

Posted in Uncategorized by bv
RSS 2.0
01
Peja
August 24th, 2006 7:12 pm

Have you heard anything regarding which position Amare will play? If Kurt Thomas starts at C and Amare at PF, then its logical to expect Marion to start at SF and as a result his rebouding and block numbers would take a serious hit. This would cause him to drop out of top-pick contention in my opinion, despite the fact that his 3’s would probably increase.
However if Amare returns at the C position, there wouldn’t be much of a problem.

02
bv
August 25th, 2006 6:00 am

peja, I can’t imagine that Kurt Thomas will play any more minutes than Steven Hunter did two years ago. He’s 34 years old, injury prone and, honestly, not really all that good of a fit for Phoenix. But it’s thinking like that which might allow Marion to slip out of the top 3, making him an absolute steal at 4 or later.

03
fbajunkie
August 30th, 2006 8:01 am

Need to consider Brand and Kobe in this mix.

rank brID FGPR FTPR TPMPR REBPR ASTPR STLPR BLKPR PTSPR PRTOTAL
1 MARIOSH01 3.20 0.73 0.94 3.48 -0.16 3.16 2.48 2.06 14.96
2 BRANDEL01 3.48 0.59 -0.85 2.56 0.29 0.76 4.07 2.44 14.19
3 GARNEKE01 2.84 1.22 -0.72 3.52 0.98 1.46 1.74 1.82 13.58
4 WADEDW01 1.87 1.12 -0.63 0.61 2.33 2.74 0.52 2.62 11.80
5 NOWITDI01 1.28 3.77 1.20 2.23 0.42 0.06 1.14 2.85 11.74
6 BRYANKO01 -0.47 3.41 2.52 0.58 1.34 2.77 -0.17 4.26 11.71
7 JAMESLE01 1.48 -0.39 1.52 1.29 2.46 2.04 0.72 3.53 11.13

04
fbajunkie
August 30th, 2006 8:10 am

James’s improvement is tied to FT%. If he could get his FT% in the high 70s and increase the volume, then he could improve his scoring without substantially cutting into FG%.

05
Rook
August 30th, 2006 3:45 pm

You mentioned that KG’s good categories are easiest to find late in the draft. I’d really like to hear your definitive thoughts on this topic more generally: which categories are easiest and hardest to catch up in late in the draft and mid-season? (Don’t mean to steal your thunder if this is going to be a column topic later on, or throughout the year - I hope it is.)

I figure that if taking steps to catch up in one category tends to hurt another (i.e., maybe there are always big men available on the wire with 8 rebounds/gm, but they tend to also be 50% FT shooters), then that category is “harder” to catch up in.

With (only) one season of hoops under my belt, my impression is this:
1. (hardest cat to catch up in) FT%: the guys with the FT attempts to actually affect your percentage are never available, though grabbing a bunch of Delonte Wests with 80% on 3 attempts does help.
2. FG%: for the same reason, though random big guys are often on the wire (last year there were Wilcox and Perkins for parts of the season).
3. AST
4. BLK: Scarce category and shot-blockers who don’t murder your other categories are all gone fast. Adonal Foyle is always owned by an unhappy owner.
5. TO: low-TO guys are always available, but they are sometimes low-minutes guys who don’t add much else, or big men who only rebound.
6. Scoring: You guys consistently say that it’s the easiest to catch up in, but I don’t know… the regulars who score 15+/gm are drafted early. Scoring is valued highly by the average owner. And if a role player explodes for 20, he’s often snatched up. Maybe I’m wrong?
7. REB
8. ST
9. 3PT (easiest): some shooting guard who chucks 1.5 threes and doesn’t hurt you elsewhere is usually available (someone like Posey)

06
bv
August 31st, 2006 11:17 am

FBA Junkie:
I’d love to throw brand in the mix but i think he may have overperformed last year. He’s a legit first round pick for sure, but I don’t think anyone will consider him for number one.
As for Kobe, that’s a different story - he was the toughest one to leave off this list. But here’s my reasoning. If you have a choice between him and LeBron, lebron will be the pick (regardless of final numbers last year). The reason the four that made it did was because they’re all different types of players, whereas kobe and lebron are the same “type,” if that makes any sense.

07
bv
August 31st, 2006 11:23 am

Rook-
Catching up mid-season and catching up late in the draft are two TOTALLY different things. I think KG’s best stats (reb, blocks) can be picked up later in the draft (as in, the middle rounds, not necesssarily towards the very end).
I will completely agree with you about percentages, if onnly because it’s almost imposisble to figure out exactly what sort of impact a guy’s FT% will have on your team. with blocks, a block is a block is a block. but with percentages, you have so much to consider - his %, how often he gets to the line, how often the rest of your team gets to the line and their percentage - that it’s REALLY tough to tell the level of impact one guys will have.

Leave Your Comment

Name*
Mail*
Website
Comment