The LeBrons made a huge leap last year, not only getting to the playoffs but ruining my life as they beat the Wizards in the first round in a series of heartbreakers, and then nearly upending the defending champion Detroit Pistons in the second round.  Not bad for a team that basically struck out the previous offseason: Larry Hughes both underperformed and missed half the season, and Damon Jones and Donyell Marshall stunk up the joint.  This offseason was much more relaxed after LeBron finally re-signed, and the roster is very similar to where it was last year.   The Cavs should be settling for nothing less than an Eastern Conference championship this year, and that means someone is going to have to step it up.  Let’s try and guess who that’s gonna be:

The Stud: LeBron James, SF
Despite all the accolades and attention, is it possible that LeBron James was a little disappointing last year?  His FT% has gone from a nuisance to a legitimate concern, and he took a hit in steals, boards, and assists.  Still, he’s the top pick.  He’s only 21 years old so he could still be improving, as scary as that is.  The other thing to consider is that you have to think his assists are going to go up this year, simply because the Cavs MUST shoot better this year from the outside.  They signed Jones and Marshall knowing that they were going to have plenty of wide-open threes, which they did.  The problem was that they didn’t make ‘em – the Cavs tied for 23rd in the league in three point FG%.  That’s going to improve this year – it just has to.  The addition of David Wesley will help, plus you’ve gotta imagine that Jones and Marshall will at least somewhat regain their form.  That should help James reach at least 8 assists, and maybe more.  The other concern is fatigue, as LeBron played in the World Championships, and has played 42 mpg each of the last 2 seasons as well.  But you won’t get any arguments from us with taking him number one, and if he slips to you at two or three, congratulations.

The Support: Zydrunas Ilgauskas, C
Has there been a more quietly dependable center over the past few years than Big Z?  Each of the last four years he’s been good for at least 15/7 with 1.7 blocks, and last year he even added some nice percentages to his repertoire.  The concern with Ilgauskas for a long time was injury issues, but he’s played in at least 78 games for four years in a row.  The new concern is age.  Z is 31 years old, and last year he slipped just under the dreaded 30 mpg mark.  On the bright side, though, there’s not really anyone challenging him for minutes, and he could see as little as 25 minutes this year and still have plenty of value.  He showed up at 37/44 on the total/average player rater despite his drop in minutes, and with no one in line to take his place should be good for a 4th round pick again this year.  He’s a fine C1 and a luxury as a C2.

The Supporting Support: Larry Hughes
What a bummer that was, huh?  Hughes not only got hurt and missed over half the year, but he also managed to stink when he was on the court.  Not that this was a huge surprise – he set career highs in a few categories the year before, including an absurd 2.9 steals, and that was a contract year, and then he changed teams to boot.  In fact, his on-court performance last year was pretty solidly in line with his career averages.  Despite his struggles, it was nice to see that he still got his minutes when he was healthy, as he played 35 mpg.  Hughes is no longer worth considering in the third or fourth rounds like he was last year, and you have to be careful with percentages, but he should be OK as a mid-round pick this time around.

The Sleeper: Donyell Marshall, F
Marshall was awful last year.  There’s just no way around it.  He saw the same 25 mpg that he saw in Toronto the year before but slipped significantly in every single statistical category.  It’s conceivable that he won’t even get drafted in some leagues this year because he was so bad last year.  Don’t let this happen in your league.  Marshall is worth a spot on your bench at the very least, just because of his potential to be a top-50 guy.  You have to think he’s going to turn it around this year.  Here’s something interesting to look at – check out his splits from last year, and look at how drastically better he was when he got 3 days of rest.  Granted it was a small sample size, but this really gives some support to the idea that he was really out of shape last year.  That’s why the reports that he’s gotten in much better shape over the summer are so encouraging.  Marshall is a nice late risk, and if you’re extra confident you could even draft him for a Utility spot.

The Slacker: Drew Gooden, PF
Make no mistake, we are Drew Gooden fans here at FBB, but that’s in real life, not in fantasy.  The fact is that in fantasy, Gooden just doesn’t do enough in enough categories.  Yes he rebounds and has a decent FG%, but that’s really about it.  He disappointed across the board last year (is this a trend for the Cavs or what?), and regressed badly in FT%.  Here’s a couple ifs:  IF he gets C-eligibility (not out of the question), and/or IF he starts to get defensive numbers up over the 1.0 mark, he’ll be worth a starting spot.  I’m not sure that either of those will happen.  He’s still a decent selection for your bench, though.

Double Dribbles:  Shannon Brown wowed a lot of people leading up to the draft this year, but it’s going to take some major injuries for him to get enough time for fantasy value … Damon Jones lost any value potential when the Cavs signed David Wesley … speaking of Wesley, he didn’t have much value playing 33 mpg on a skeleton Rockets team last year, so there’s no reason to think he’ll have value playing 20 mpg on the Cavs … Anderson Varejao and Scott Pollard will try to out-hair each other, but the minutes just won’t be there for either of them this year.

The Sonics fall from 52 to 35 wins and out of the playoffs was so predictable that it seemed almost too predictable. But it happened and it would be surprising to see them get back into the upper echelon of teams in a very tough conference. For a high scoring team the Sonics had surprisingly few fantasy options until the end of the season when Chris Wilcox and even Earl Watson emerged as legitimate options. Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis are reliable players who are clearly the offensive leaders on this team and former interim coach Bob Hill will continue to lean heavily on them.

The Stud: Ray Allen, SG
Now that’s a nice season, as it’s bound to be when you set an all-time record in one of the six cumulative fantasy categories. Allen made 35% more 3s than Gilbert Arenas, who was second in the league, making him outrageously dominant there. Everything else was right around his established numbers in Seattle, and it was encouraging to see him make it through a second consecutive season largely injury-free. You can’t count on him to break his own record in 3s again, but betting on Allen to lead the league in 3s is probably the safest bet for any single category in fantasy this year, except for maybe Steve Nash in assists. It’s always nice to get out to a huge start in a category, and it’s always nice to have the unquestioned #1 option on one of the league’s highest scoring teams. There are plenty of possibilities as you get around the #10 position in the draft, and Allen’s as legit an option as any of them.

The Support: Rashard Lewis, SF
He still can’t earn much fantasy respect, but once again he was right there in the top 25-30 at the end of the year. We can’t blame it all on his playing in Seattle; it’s because he gets his value by being pretty good at everything without being particularly great at anything. His 1.8 3s are quite nice, but he was barely top 20 there and it was a fairly steep drop from the 2.4 per game he hit in 04-05. Some people were scared by a shoulder problem, but Lewis played in 78 games, his seventh straight season of 70+ games. Lewis is a “fill-in-the-stat-line-now” kind of guy. You know exactly what to expect from him and there’s not much chance of a breakout. People like their early picks to be superstars, or at least have the chance to superstars, and that’s not too likely with Lewis. Last year he went 32^nd in my league and finished 23^rd on the player rater. I have a feeling something pretty similar will happen again.

The Supporting Support: Luke Ridnour, PG
Ridnour gets the job done and is basically your prototype #2 PG. He finished 7^th in assists, 17^th in steals and 22^nd in free throw value last season. OK, so he doesn’t hit too many 3s – there’s a reason he’s a #2 PG. He’s durable and will probably have one stretch where it looks like he might lose his job, but he’s pretty reliable. Ridnour’s not a good shooter, but he doesn’t throw enough up there for it to hurt you more than you can handle from the position. He’s not a guy you’re going to love, but he’s pretty easy to like. He improved his scoring, assists and steals last season, his second as a starter. He’s young enough to continue to show improvement and he plays for one of the league’s highest scoring teams. His lack of flash and the fact that he plays in Seattle will probably make him a decent value in the middle rounds on draft day.

The Sleeper: Damien Wilkins, GF
Undraftable, but should something happen to Ray Allen, Wilkins could be a must-have. He took Allen’s spot in the starting lineup four times last year and in those four games he put up numbers of 16/4/2 with a handful of 3s and steals. Nothing spectacular, but if the minutes are there he’s worth playing. Of course, that goes for just about anyone. We’ve never denied it’s all about the opportunity, and spotting who might get that opportunity is a big part of things.

The Slacker: Chris Wilcox, FC
As you well know by now, just because someone’s a slacker doesn’t mean we think they are bad. Just overvalued. Wilcox has always flashed plenty of potential, he’s just never had an extended opportunity to show his stuff. He got that opportunity when he was traded to Seattle in the second half of the season, and in his contract push he put up some mighty promising numbers. In 30 games with the Sonics Wilcox put up 14.1/8.2/1.2 on a ridiculous 59% shooting. He ended the season on a down note but put up some just monster lines in the weeks prior to that – 16 and 19, 30 and 14, 26 and 24 among them. He signed a three-year to stay with the Sonics and should be the team’s starting PF going into the season. He’s going to be worth drafting, but there’s always at least one person in your league who will see the upside, see those numbers from late in the season and project him out as a 20/10 guy who will be the next Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Sure it could happen, just don’t overpay to find out. His center-eligibility in Yahoo! Leagues is a nice temptation, though.

Double Dribbles: Earl Watson was a little dynamo for the Sonics after getting out of Denver, averaging 11.5/3.0/5.4 with 1.3 steals and 1.8 3s in 25 mpg off the bench. He might have been a little too good, in fact, ensuing that he’ll remain in that sparkplug off the bench role that would limit his minutes just enough to make him a fantasy tease that makes for decent depth but probably not someone you’d feel comfortable starting in most leagues … Robert Swift showed some actual potential in his second season after sitting on the pine for almost his entire rookie season. Swift won’t be any kind of offensive force for a long while, so we mostly care about his blocks. Swift had seven games of 3 blocks or more last season, not bad. He commits lots of fouls and that could keep him from seeing that magic 30 mpg mark that would make him a decent third center … Nick Collison’s a lesser statistical version of Wilcox. Excellent FG%, very good boards, some points. He went for 20 and 12 then 19 and 13 in two of his first games as a starter last year but those were two of his best games of the year.

The Bulls didn’t just make a splash this summer – they did an all-out cannonball.  Or was it a bellyflop?  Armed with major cash and the number two pick in the draft, they went out and spent big on …a 32 year old center with no offensive ability and diminishing quickness and athleticism, which has been his biggest asset throughout his career?  Sweet!  Then they went with a “project” with their high draft pick in Ty Thomas, who shouldn’t contribute much this year, but at least were “savvy” enough to pick up Viktor “In Soviet Russia, Three Pointer shoots you!” Khryapa in a draft-day deal with the Trail Blazers.  Not convinced that adding one over-the-hill big man was enough, they picked up PJ Brown in exchange for ridding themselves of perennial disappointment Tyson Chandler.  Needless to say, I wasn’t thrilled with the offseason moves made by the Bulls front office.  Still, they’ve got plenty of young talent, and just recently they made a move that has “sleeper” written all over it.  But with Scott Skiles at the helm, you never know what could happen:

The Stud: Kirk Hinrich, PG

There’s few things that you need more in fantasy basketball than a reliable point guard, and Kirk Hinrich is exactly that.  He is the definition of a “typical point guard.”  His assets are in assists, threes, steals, FT%, and points.  He hurts in FG% and blocks.  Yep, that’s a point guard all right.  But more important than his stats is his consistency.  Other than a slight uptick in his percentages, his stats last year were remarkably similar to his stats in ’04-05.  He’s seen around 36 mpg for his whole career, has only missed 12 games in three years, and is just a solid guy to have on your team.  If you don’t have a PG yet and he’s sitting there in the fourth round, you should feel no reservations about taking him there.  Even if you do have a PG already, he’s still worth consideration in the fourth. 

The Support: Andres Nocioni, F
Nocioni is another one of those potential triple-threaters, capable of putting up a steal, a block and a three.  He’s also a pretty strong rebounder, and very strong from the line.  He blew up at the end of the year, averaging a double-double in April, but that may make him over-rated.  Odds are he’s going to end up seeing closer to the 28 minutes he averaged over the course of the year rather than the 38 he saw in April, but even that’s enough for the multi-category threat to have value.  There’s also the issue of Scott Skiles.  Let’s talk about Skiles for a minute.  For a long time, he was thought to be of the same vein as Hubie Brown, or even Knicks-era Larry Brown, the kind of guy where it was impossible to predict minutes from one night to the next.  But I think that’s just because his players stunk more than anything else.  I mean, you’d be rotation Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler, Antonio Davis, Michael Sweetney, and lord knows who else in and out of the lineup too if they were all you had to go with.  The fact is that when Skiles finds someone he likes, he’ll keep him on the court.  He does it with Hinrich.  He does it with a couple of other guys on this roster as well.  And he could very well do it for Nocioni, if he earns those minutes.  Andres is a very safe pick in the 7th round, and a nice risk in the 5th or 6th.

The Supporting Support:  Ben Gordon, G
Yes, yes, I know.  All he does is score and shoot threes.  He doesn’t really contribute anywhere else, and he’s got a nasty FG%.  But you know what?  He also stays healthy, and at some point, 16 points and 2 threes are nice to have on your roster.  He came in at a very respectable 76 on the total player rater, and he’s one of those guys who, like Hinrich, has seemed to earn his minutes under Skiles.  With the addition of Ben Wallace, you know this team will need an offensive spark early and often – and Gordon will be depended on as that spark.  Gordon is a fine pick once you’re looking for Utility guys in the 9th round or later.

The Sleeper: Luol Deng, GF
So apparently the Bulls just signed Luol Deng to a big contract extension.  That’s reason enough for me to put Deng here at the sleeper spot, as they apparently plan to keep him on the court at least as much as the 33 mpg they gave him last year.  Deng showed nice improvement last year, cutting down on his turnovers and contributing nicely in points and boards.  It’s said that often the third year in the league is where everything comes together, and if that’s true for Deng he could really break out.  One of the big benefits about Deng is that for some reason he qualifies at G in Yahoo! leagues, and his 6+ rpg are great from the SG spot.  Unfortunately, playing him there means you’ve really gotta have support in 3’s from an unconventional position, because Deng certainly won’t provide them.  I’d look for him as early as the 5th round this year.

The Slacker: Ben Wallace, FC
Wallace is on his way down, and it’s not going to be pretty.  Let’s look at the facts:  Fact number one – last year he set six-year lows in rebounds and blocks, and that’s not good for a guy who gets about 80% of his value from rebounds and blocks.  Fact number two -his FT% is just crippling.  Fact number three – he really wore down towards the end of last year.  In March and April he was a shadow of his former self.  He’s showing all the signs of aging and his aging is not going to be pretty.  He was an impressive 31 on the overall player rater but honestly I wouldn’t take him until the 5th round at the absolute earliest.  He should be a total headache this year.

Double Dribbles: Chris Duhon is a Hinrich injury away from being a very effective PG, but he won’t see any more than the 29 mpg he saw last year while Kirk is healthy … Mike Sweetney, PJ Brown, Ty Thomas, and Malik Allen will probably cancel out each other’s value while playing behind Nocioni and Wallace, but Thomas actually might be an OK late round pick.  If he shows the talent, Skiles should find time for him in the front court, but keep in mind that Skiles won’t be afraid of having a short leash … all the draft experts think that Thabo Sefolosha was a nice pick, but I can’t imagine he’ll garner enough PT to have any value.

The Warriors will be an interesting team to observe in the preseason and as the season starts. The Mike Montgomery era was predictably bland and sub-mediocre and now Don Nelson is on board to try and get the Warriors back to the playoffs after more than a decade. Last season was especially disappointing since they finished 04-05 with a flourish after the arrival of Baron Davis, and most predictions had them in the top 8 in the west. They got off to a fast start but won only 20 of their final 58 games, Davis shut it down and it was another lost season by the Bay. Nelson’s teams in Dallas scored lots of points, and the Warriors might just have enough fire power to run with the best of them. If the team goes with a small lineup, it could make for a whole bunch of players with fantasy relevance.

The Stud: Jason Richardson, SG
It was another year of steady improvement for J-Rich, who has established himself as one of the league’s most reliable – and anonymous – top scorers. I suppose that’s what happens when you play in Golden State for a team that has missed the playoffs in each of your five seasons and the seven before that. What allowed Richardson to make the leap last year was his emergence as one of the league’s top three-point gunners. He’s gone from 1.0 to 1.7 to 2.4 3pg in the last few seasons, and only six players hit more than him from long range last year. Throw in solid durability (he missed one four-game stretch before missing three of the season’s final seven games), plenty of minutes, being the team’s #1 option and a solid all-around game and you’ve got a borderline fantasy stud, despite his lackluster, volume shooting (including from the free throw line). J-Rich finished 35/31 on the player rater and slots as a pretty safe third round pick. Because of where he plays and because he’s never had a huge breakout, he’s never been a really hot name coming into the season and that’ll be the case again. There’s nothing wrong with safe and reliable, though.

The Support: Baron Davis, PG
And then there’s this. You might be saying, Shouldn’t he be the slacker? It’s Baron Davis, after all, the man responsible for the most ruined fantasy basketball seasons two years running. And that’s very true. He may very well miss another 30-40 games. But one thing is for sure – Baron’s coming at a discount for the first time in many years. Davis has earned a reputation as an injury-prone player who packs it in when things aren’t going his way. People are tired of him. Thanks to Yahoo’s very nifty Fantasy Profile, I was able to go back and see where Davis went in my last few drafts. Starting with last year and working backwards, here’s where he went in my league: 20, 16, 23, 19. He was a second round pick each of the last four years. That most certainly won’t be the case this year. Davis certainly wasn’t at his best when he was on the court last year, but he was still good enough to put up 17.9/4.4/8.9 with 1.9 3s and 1.7 steals. Even with his miserable shooting, those are still come crucial numbers. Baron could very well slip to the fourth or fifth round of your drafts this season. He’s still a risk there, but not nearly as much as he is in the second round. If you miss on your second round pick, you’re most likely in for a long season. If that happens in the fifth round, you can manage. The talent is obviously there, and he’s getting (yet another) fresh start under Nelson. It’s all about value, and for the first time in many years Davis might — might — offer some.

The Supporting Support: Troy Murphy, PF
I’m just not a big Murphy fan. He’s a decent bet for a double-double on any night, but a PF who shoots 43% and doesn’t even block a half shot per game is going to be a liability on most fantasy teams. One thing that could give Murphy some added value is if he qualifies at center at any point in the season. Nelson’s talking about using a small lineup in which Murphy will play in middle, and while his FG% and lack of blocks will be a liability there as well, the center position is thin enough to make him a very good option there. Murphy saw a huge jump in his 3s taken and made in 04-05, but he simply held steady at those numbers last year. Another big jump would have given him some serious extra value. As it is, it looks like what we see is what we get, and that makes for a pretty unexciting mid-round pick.

The Sleeper: Ike Diogu, FC
Here are a pair of p40 lines from last season:

Player A: 16.4/11.8/1.6, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks, 0.9 3s, 43/79
Player B: 18.8/8.9/1.1, 0.6 steals, 1.2 blocks, 52/81

Player A was Murphy, Player B was Diogu. Judging by the numbers the two are basically equal – Diogu’s a better shooter with more blocks, Murphy gets more boards and 3s – although Diogu drew fouls at a higher rate than just about everyone in the league last year. Diogu was a somewhat trendy deep sleeper as a rookie last season, but it was clear he wouldn’t really get the PT to have some serious value. He did sneak into the starting lineup at a few points but was still not able to consistently play 30 minutes. Diogu’s talent was on view during the season’s last seven games, though. He started just two and averaged just 26.1 mpg, but still averaged a very nice 16 and 7.6 on 57% shooting. If Nelson is true to his word, Diogu and Murphy could be out on the floor together a lot, manning the 4 and 5. Diogu already qualifies at center, which gives his sleeper value a bit of a boost.

The Slacker: Mike Dunleavy, SF
Who else could it be? Chris Mullin’s handed out plenty of awful contracts, and Dunleavy’s is probably the worst. Four seasons is a pretty decent sample size and Dunleavy just hasn’t shown any hints of being an especially productive NBA player. If you’re Chris Mullun, that’ll make you want to hand out $44 million, but if you’re a fantasy owner it’ll get you possible late-round flyer status. Dunleavy took a real step backwards last year, as his scoring, shooting and rebounding numbers all tumbled. He doesn’t have a real weakness, but he doesn’t have a real strength either. Every year people talk about the kind of role Dunleavy will play and how he’ll be utilized to accentuate his strengths. But that’s tough to do when there aren’t any strengths to speak of.

Double Dribbles: Prep to pro Monta Ellis ended last season on a tear, Baron Davis is injury prone and Derek Fisher is in Utah. Not a bad combo, but I have a feeling that solid play in ultimately meaningless games at the end of last season might have people just a bit too excited about Ellis’s prospects this year. He’s more of a scorer than a PG and reminds me a bit of Leandro Barbosa. Looks to be a good find for the Warriors, but probably at least another season from true fantasy relevance … Mickael Pietrus had his chances and hasn’t yet come through, putting him in a similar situation to Dunleavy. If anything he went backwards last year. He found himself in the starting lineup for 18 games but managed only 11.6/3.9/1.2 with unspectacular extras and terrible percentages. He simply needs to show more … We’ve always had a little thing for Andris Biedrins, a young foreign big man who likes to play down low and cleans up on the glass and blocks his share of shots. His 64% from the field was incredible, even if it was on 2.7 shots per game. His 31% from the line was just as incredible. Interesting stat lines, not much else … Every year someone desperate for blocks and a center takes Adonal Foyle in one of the last rounds of your draft. And a couple weeks later he’s out on the waiver wire, until someone desperate for blocks picks him up. And the cycle repeats. And nobody ever enjoys it.

Count me among the many NBA fans who weren’t too disappointed that San Antonio nor the Detroit Pistons made it to the NBA finals.  Still, their loss to the flashier Dallas Mavericks didn’t mean that the Spurs were going to go into panic mode.  A little tinkering here and there (so long Rasho Nesterovic and Nazr Mohammed, hello Matt Bonner, Jackie Butler and Francisco Elson!), and the Spurs should be about the same in ’07 as they were in ’06.  Boring.  But sometimes, boring is good, especially when you’re looking for dependable fantasy options in the mid-rounds…

The Stud: Tim Duncan, FC
Duncan had a pretty unusual year last year, at least as unusual it gets for a guy as dependable as the Big Fundamental.  He decided to play through his injuries rather than sit out and let them get better, and the results were mixed.  While he did play in 80 games for the first time in three years, his stats suffered, particularly in the second half of the season.  His scoring dipped under 20 for the first time in his career, and he also set career-lows in blocks and rebounds.  But you know what?  He still was plenty valuable, coming in at 22/25 on the total/average player rater, and he gets a little bonus for being a center – I’d say he’s a fine mid-second rounder, after Yao Ming but maybe before Chris Bosh.

The Support: Tony Parker, PG
Here’s what I don’t understand with Tony Parker.  He’s always zipping past some defender who for some reason doesn’t realize that TP can’t shoot from 20+ feet out and stinks from the line as well.  I dunno why that defender doesn’t a) give him that jumper and defend the drive or b) just foul him to death and let him go shoot him 70% from the line.  Regardless, I think Parker is in for a down year.  There’s just no reason to think he’ll continue to shoot that absurd 55% from the field that he did last year, and he should clock in closer to 50% (still great for a PG) and 15 ppg.  Parker can often be taken in the 4th or 5th because someone needs “a point guard,” but Parker is really a square peg for a round hole in that scenario.  I am generally down on Parker because he’s really not what I look for in a fantasy PG.  He contributes nothing in threes, and is really average in steals and assists.  He derived almost all of his fantasy value last year from his high FG%, and doesn’t do enough of anything else to make me want to consider him before the sixth round.  He’s a nice pick a bit earlier but only if you have a bunch of poor FG% guys on your team – he’ll do nicely offsetting a Kobe Bryant or Vince Carter.  Other than that, you’re better going a different direction.

The Supporting Support: Manu Ginobili, SG
Manu was a popular guy this time last year after exploding in the ’05 playoffs.  We here at FBB, however, were not fooled (except for DM who took him in the third round of our mock draft).  Perhaps upset by our lack of faith, Manu had a down year last year, missing 17 games and dropping a little in each statistical category.  This year Manu should return to his true draft position, which is as a 6th or 7th round pick.  He contributes nicely in steals and threes, but doesn’t do much in any other category.  Someone may take him earlier because of his “name” status, but Ginobili isn’t really worth it until you’ve already got a couple solid guards on your roster.

The Sleeper: Jackie Butler, C
John Hollinger loves Jackie Butler.  We love John Hollinger.  Therefore vicariously we love Jackie Butler.  Butler’s per-35 minute stats last year were something like 13.8/8.6 with 1.5 blocks, and that was playing in crazy Larry Brown’s offense.  The Spurs often went small last year and played Duncan at center, but that was more because of Nazr Mohammad and Rasho Nesterovic’s ineffectiveness than anything else.  Butler will be battling Francisco Elson and Matt Bonner for playing time, which basically means that minutes are there for the taking at C.  Butler is one to watch closely in training camp.

The Slacker: Bruce Bowen, SF
Make no mistake, Bowen is an integral part of this team, and he deserves (most of) the 30+ minutes he gets.  And yes, he hits threes.  But that’s it.  He can’t shoot from the stripe, may be a defensive “stopper” but doesn’t have the numbers to prove it, and just isn’t counted on for scoring.  He’s also 35.  Avoid.

Double Dribbles: Elson and Bonner will each contribute at C but neither have shown any reason to believe that they’ll “break out” with the Spurs … Michael Finley, Robert Horry and Brent Barry may provide nice veteran leadership, but that’s not a fantasy category, and none of them play enough to have value …Beno Udrih might be a nice player but he’ll need some injuries (i.e. to Tony Parker) before he’ll be useful.

Ah, the Phoenix Suns. A fantasy player’s best friend. The team that turns waiver wire fodder like Raja Bell and Boris Diaw into legit stars. To say Phoenix didn’t miss Amare Stoudemire would be extremely laughable, but the team did make it right back to the Western Conference finals, although they did so after winning eight fewer games in the regular season. Stoudemire is obviously the biggest item with the Suns this season. Will he be back? Will he really be back? If he’s back, how will his presence affect players such as Diaw and Bell who had breakout years in his absence last season? Call me optimistic, but I think everyone can get along just fine. It’s worth noting that the Suns did add some quality depth this offseason. Four players averaged 35.5 or more mpg last season, but now the bench has solid backups like Leonard Barbosa, Marcus Banks, the Jones twins, Kurt Thomas and Eric Piatkowski.

The Stud: Shawn Marion, F
The Matrix was far and away the fantasy MVP last season. He established career highs, in points, rebounds and blocks, but where the bulk of his added value came was FG%. He never shot above 48%, but raised it to 52.5% last season. That gave him a 2.49 value in FG% on the player rater, compared to a 0.79 value in 04-05. That, plus averaging 40+ minutes in 81 games helped him finish an easy 1/1 on the player rater. The only possible weakness in Marion’s fantasy game is assists, but for someone who is probably slotted at PF, his near 2 per game is fine. And it’s not just that he’s well-rounded; he’s dominant in FG%, rebounds, steals and blocks. There really aren’t any more superlatives you can throw his way at this point. He’s been (just about) the best with Amare, he’s been the best without Amare. Marion is as upper echelon a fantasy stud as they come. Depending on your personal preference, you might consider taking LeBron, Kobe or KG before Marion. But if you’re picking fifth and the Matrix is still sitting there, you are a lucky, lucky dude.

The Support: Steve Nash, PG
Some day people will indeed look back at this era of basketball – the LeBron, Dwyane, Kobe era coming out of the Shaq, Duncan, Garnett era – and look at the MVP list and say, “Steve Nash won back-to-back MVP awards?! What the hell were those people thinking?!” Still, there’s no denying that Nash has been spectacular the past few seasons and there’s no reason to expect much change this season. His assists dropped ever-so-slightly, although that has more to do with Boris Diaw’s emergence than Amare Stoudemire’s absence, as some of us predicted. He still had 100 more assists than anyone else in the league, so it’s hard to complain, especially since me made up for it with a career high 18.9 ppg while establishing a new high of 51.2% from the field and matching his career-high with 1.9 3pg, and even setting an easy career-high with 4.2 rpg. He also set a career-high with 3.5 turnovers per game, so for those of you unfortunate souls who count turnovers, Nash is obviously a liability there as only our boy Gilbert Arenas had more than him. So you want to penalize a guy because he plays for a fast-tempo team and is a great playmaker? I will just never understand leagues that count turnovers and have head-to-head championships in the last week of the season. NEVER. Nash finished 8/9 on the player rater last year, but he’s very borderline as a first round pick in 12-team leagues. Nash’s back problems haven’t caused him to miss much time at all the past few seasons, but he’s still 32 years old with plenty of mileage. He’s fine in the second, but I’d go for a younger stud in the first.

The Supporting Support: Boris Diaw, FC
If anyone tells you they saw that coming, they are just lying. There’s no other way around it. Diaw went from being one of the Eric Snow Memorial All-Stars in Atlanta – as in, absolutely no value even with the minutes – to an every night triple-double threat who finished 28/37 last season. Truly one of the most remarkable out-of-nowhere breakout seasons ever. Anytime a player comes out of absolutely nowhere with a season like Diaw did last year, there are always red flags when it comes to his draft position the next season. But there seems to be little reason to expect too much of a decline from Diaw this season. He was great enough last year that he’s earned himself quite a bit of slack if he doesn’t get off to a great start. He’s not going to find himself on the bench if he has a few bad games. He still plays for the most fantasy-friendly team in the league, and while minutes might be at more of a premium this year as Phoenix has improved its depth, Diaw’s ability to play all five positions will certainly keep him on the court plenty. Speaking of positions, Diaw is perhaps the only player in fantasy history to go from qualifying at point guard one season to qualifying at center the next season. You won’t get much more than a block per game from Diaw, but that doesn’t stop him from being a top option in the middle. The big question is whether he can keep up the production with Amare around. Diaw’s not a guy who needs to take shots to have value, so everything should be fine. It might take a third-round pick to land Diaw, and while there’s a good chance he’ll be a fine return on that, but it’s be understandable if you were hesitant at that point.

The Sleeper: Jumaine Jones, SF
This could be a match made in heaven. Jones will have to work his way into minutes, but if he manages to do that, he could help you out. Jones is one of those young veterans, a journeyman who’s now on his sixth team, but he’s just 27 years old. The guy simply loves to shoot 3s, and he’s going to the perfect team for that. Over the past two seasons, 49% of his attempts have been from long range. Last season he hit 1.5 3pg – and attempted 4.4 per game – while averaging just 27.5 mpg. Now he’s going to a team that took 265 more 3s than the team with next most. It’s true that James Jones – and yes, someone in your league will probably confuse the two at some point this season – does basically the same thing. But Jumaine has a knack for working his way into more PT as the season progresses, and Phoenix is the one team where 30 mpg isn’t necessarily a prerequisite for having fantasy value, especially if you’re looking for a three-point specialist. Doubtful he’ll worth drafting, but if the opportunity presents itself, he’ll be worth a pickup.

The Slacker: Amare Stoudemire, FC
Look, I love Amare as much as you do. In fact, I’m pretty sure I love him more than you do. His performance in the series against San Antonio a couple years ago was one of those stretches of play that I’ll always remember. The man is simply a beast. Or at least he was. Might he still be? Sure. Are you willing to risk a second – or maybe even first – round pick to find out, when there are plenty of sure things left on the board? Well, that’s your call. Personally, I only go for sure things in the first two rounds. I basically want a guarantee of 80 games at absolute peak performance. And it’s just not possible to say that’s the case right now with Stoudemire. If he is indeed back to his old self, then there are few better players to have on your squad. After all, he did finish at #6 on the player rater in 04-05, and has center eligibility to boot. We’re not doctors – no, really, we’re not – but it seems like if anyone is capable of coming all the way back from a serious injury like this, it would be a young, athletic player like Stoudmire. At the same time, he’s a player who more than anyone relies on explosiveness. The bottom line is that we just don’t know. Stoudemire has the dangerous combo of tremendously appealing flash and upside and a huge health question mark. Players like those can still help you if you can get them at a discount. That’s not too likely with Stoudemire.

Double Dribbles: Raja Bell might be the first player taken who was relegated to the double dribbles section of his team’s preview. Sorry, Raja, nothing personal, Phoenix is just a fantasy goldmine and you’re not a sleeper or a slacker. Bell sure took the system in Phoenix and put in 2.5 3pg last season after never even averaging 1 per game previously. Only Ray Allen made more 3s last year. He finished 53/68 on the player rater, largely on the strength of his 3s. He was pretty ordinary everywhere else. I’m slightly down on Bell because I don’t think he’ll see 37.5 mpg again, so he might not make the best mid-round selection … Last preseason Bell and James Jones were the two hot sleepers for Phoenix, and as the season grew closer people became more enamored with Jones. Oops. He was benched as a starter after four games and started a bunch more over the course of the season but never really got going. I’m not a big fan, especially with that other J. Jones on board … Leonardo Barbosa’s an explosive scorer who hits his share of 3s, as does just about everyone on Phoenix. He’s much more of a SG than PG, but can handle time at both since Diaw is around. He has problems staying healthy, and with Marcus Banks around now, his chances of seeing 30 mpg aren’t as good. That’s the number he needs to have fantasy value … Speaking of Marcus Banks, Phoenix can give anyone fantasy value, but he’ll need to be out on the court. Banks has never been much of a three-point shooter, so it will be interesting to see if he adds that to his repertoire in Phoenix … Kurt Thomas was an immense disappointment as a fill-in for Stoudemire, as he just didn’t fit in with the team’s fast-paced style. If he couldn’t find any value without Amare around, it’s hard to see him having any with the big man back.

The Hornets were probably the most exciting 38-44 team in the league last year.  They were taken in by Oklahoma City and treated like kings, and it didn’t hurt that Chris Paul turned into a true star right before our eyes.  You look at their roster and it’s hard to believe that this team was anywhere close to .500, but they pulled it off.  Not wanting to lose momentum, the front office won the Daniel Snyder Memorial Overspending For Underperforming Players Award in the summer, dishing out huge contracts to a couple of damaged vets and a consistently disappointing big man.  The new additions mean that they’re no longer the scrappy team everyone can root for, but that doesn’t mean that there’s not plenty of value to be found:

The Stud: Chris Paul, PG
Chris Paul was everything the Hornets could have hoped for and more last year.  He also thrilled his fantasy owners, coming in at 16th on the player rater and immediately establishing himself among the elite fantasy PG’s.  Still, there are a couple of reasons for concern.  One, he didn’t improve at all over the course of the season.  Two, he’s proving to be not much of a three point shooter, which is a concern for a PG.  And three, he’s going to have to share the ball a lot more this season with all the added talent on the roster.  But really, he’s a pretty low-risk guy.  The Hornets have to realize that he is going to be the face of their franchise for the next decade, and so he’ll be given the reins again this year.  Paul fits very nicely in with the other second round PG’s like Steve Nash and Jason Kidd, but I wouldn’t reach for him in the first, and I’d make sure I had a couple of good three-point shooters on my squad if I had him as well.

The Support: Peja Stojakovic, SF
Peja’s days as a top fantasy player may be over, but he’s still got plenty of value.  The Hornets shoveled a ton of money his way to get him to come play for them (a recurring theme this summer for NOK), so you’d better believe he’s going to play plenty of minutes.  Peja struggled to find his shot with the Kings last year, but once he was dealt to Indiana he really settled in his FG% came right back up to his career levels.  The good news was that even when he was struggling, he still put in 2+ threes, had great FT%, and rebounded and scored pretty well.  The real reason that you can’t consider Peja until the third or fourth round is his injury history – he missed 11 games last year and that seems to be about par for the course for him.  Still, he showed that he can be effective in a non-Sacramento system last year, so there should be few worries about his new surroundings, and he’s a fine choice in the fourth – and worth taking in the right situations late in the third.

The Supporting Support: David West, PF
West was probably the best breakout fantasy player of the year last year, coming out of near-obscurity to be a legit Top-60 player and a nice asset in four categories.  He was the leading scorer on the Hornets last year, and developed a nice repor with CP3.  The question facing West is whether or not he’ll be able to assert himself in a suddenly more-crowded offense.  He’s going to need to see at least 10 FGA per game to have value, and that’s questionable right now.   Still, he should see at least 30 mpg, so he’ll be worth taking at least as high as the sixth or seventh round.  If he is still a 17 ppg kind of guy, he’s worth consideration in the fifth.  That will be determined during training camp.

The Sleeper: none of the above.
I know this is a cop out, but there’s really nobody on the squad worthy of being a sleeper.  This is a team who was incredibly thin last year, so guys like David West and Rasual Butler got a chance to show their max value.  Now that the roster has more talent, minutes are going to be harder to come by.  I guess if I had to pick one guy it would be Bobby Jackson, but he’s not a sleeper – he won’t see any more than the 25 mpg he saw last year, and he’s 33 years old and injury prone. 

The Slacker: Tyson Chandler, FC
Other than Nene, Chandler probably made the most money this offseason by simply being tall.  He rebounds pretty well, but he doesn’t block many shots or contribute anything on offense.  Sure his FG% is nice but when you shoot the ball five times a game, you’d better make ‘em count, and his FT% is horrendous to boot.  Chandler may see an uptick in minutes, but he will undoubtedly be way overvalued this year by some folks in your league.  He’s fine as a third center, but odds are you’re going to have to overpay to get him, and he’s just not worth a mid-round pick.

Double Dribbles: Hilton Armstrong and Cedric Simmons will battle Chandler for time in the front-court, and odds are they will all cancel out each other’s value … Desmond Mason was an absolute disaster last year, and I can’t figure out why.  He’ll be sitting on the bench the majority of the time this year until Peja hurts himself, at which point, he’ll continue to waste his time on the court … Jannero Pargo is a possibly better version of Bobby Jackson, and if he sees minutes will be a nice source of threes, but the odds are slim.

It’s been three straight years out of the postseason for the Jazz after 20 consecutive appearances. That could change this year, though, if the team’s impressive frontcourt can stay healthy all season and second-year point guard Deron Williams shows some improvement. The Jazz have always been one of the more frustrating teams for fantasy purposes thanks to Jerry Sloan’s unpredictable rotations, but he seems to be easing up on that. By the end of the season last year, Andre Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Williams were all playing big minutes, and that’s when the Jazz played its best ball. Will Sloan continue to give his best players the majority of the minutes? That’s really the biggest question on this Jazz team that for the first time in a while has mostly very defined roles going into the season.

The Stud: Andrei Kirilenko, F
Don’t yet give up hope on AK47 being a legitimate, top shelf fantasy stud. He got off to a rough start last year, missed 10 games in the season’s first two months and missed 13 games overall. Yet he still finished an excellent 15/13 on the player rater. He was drafted 10^th in our league last year, so he returned just slightly below average value. If you’re looking for encouraging signs, here are a few. From Christmas on he was completely healthy, missing only the final two meaningless games. Jerry Sloan also loosened the reigns on Kirilenko, letting him play nearly 38 mpg, including 39 contests in which he played at least 40 minutes. That’s a great sign, especially since Sloan has been notorious about being unpredictable with minutes, and Kirilenko averaged just 32.9 mpg in an injury-plagued 04-05. His block, assist and rebound rates were all right near his career highs. His scoring has gone down each of the past couple seasons, and while that’s not good, you don’t count on AK47 for points. So he might be lucky to ever average 20 ppg – so what? He simply gives a competitive advantage like none other – maybe Josh Smith if he ever found consistency – by blocking 3+ shots a game from the SF position. Only Shawn Marion has a more well-rounded fantasy game, and since Kirilenko’s value comes from blocks and steals, he’s less prone than most players to slumps. Even when he’s off, he can still give you three steals and three blocks. After two straight seasons in which his predicted super-breakout didn’t happen, he’s going to slip in drafts. You won’t need to spend a first round pick on him this year, nor should you with all the talent available at the top. But there may not be a better target in the second round than AK47 this year.

The Support: Mehmet Okur, FC
A simply fabulous season and he was likely one of the best draft day bargains last year. But really, he’s just another data point for Minutes Matter Most. Sure, his scoring rate increased a bit, but all of his other rates – with the notable exception of 3s – were exactly at his career norms. It’s just that for the first time in his career Okur was given a starting job and left alone. It’s amazing what starting 82 games and averaging 36 minutes will do for your fantasy value. There were still a handful of those frustrating “Sloan games” where things just went terribly wrong and Okur played 15 minutes, but those were thankfully kept to about one per month. He finished 33/42 on the player rater, and was even more valuable than that because of his center eligibility. Okur’s just 27, is in the middle of his big contract and has nobody to take many minutes away from him at center. The big question is whether he can continue to hit that 1 3pg to make up for his not even 1 bpg. It’s a trade off that can work, especially if you have another center with lots of blocks, or someone like Shawn Marion, Josh Smith, Gerald Wallace or the guy right above. Okur’s a legitimate pick in the fourth round and as a top center. Last year might be as good as it gets, but that’s pretty damn good.

The Supporting Support: Carlos Boozer, FC
It was like he was never gone. After missing almost an entire season’s worth of games, Boozer returned and played as well as he ever did, which is quite good. It took him a few weeks to return to the starting lineup, but the former Duke star started the final 19 contests and put up borderline insane numbers of 21/10/3 on 56% shooting with 1.1 steals and 0.4 blocks. It was good enough to get him at #21 on the player rater for the season’s last month. Boozer is quite clearly the starting power forward for the Jazz this season and helps make up arguably the best starting front court in the league. We don’t normally get too enamored with points/rebounds guys, especially when they are big men that block hardly any shots. But Boozer’s shooting cannot be ignored. He’s a career 53% shooter from the field and has never been below 52% in his four seasons. He can be an anchor in FG%. As long as he stays healthy, there’s no reason to expect anything less than a 17/10 season from Boozer, along with great shooting. He and Okur are almost exactly even, and both even qualify at center.

The Sleeper: Deron Williams, PG
OK, so he’s not Chris Paul. It might take Jazz fans a while to get over that fact, but Williams still had a fine rookie season, especially considering that he did it while playing for the never easy Sloan. A line of 10.8/2.4/4.5 is nothing to be ashamed of for a rookie PG, and his post-all-star break numbers of 13.2/2.3/5.5 with 1.7 3s on 47% from the field show what he’s capable of. Williams earned the starting job just two weeks into the season, lost it after about a month and then went into a serious funk. Perhaps Sloan was trying to teach him a lesson by giving serious PT to journeymen Milt Palacio and Keith McLeod, but Williams never got going until March. That’s when he absolutely caught fire from the field, including a remarkable 53% from long distance. He obviously has no chance of repeating that, but Williams will certainly hit his share of 3s, which he needs to do because his assist rate is relatively lackluster for a PG. Palacio and McLeod are gone, and with Derek Fisher likely to see as much time at SG as PG, Williams may actually have a chance to see 35 mpg. It’s worth remembering that Jerry Sloan is still the coach, and since those three guys above are going to get their minutes, if Sloan is going to mess around with anyone, it will likely be Williams. It’ll only take a late-round selection to land Williams, and any time you can land a legit starting PG late, it’s never a bad idea.

The Slacker: Derek Fisher, G
Fisher has always been a solid role player and he hit one of the most memorable buzzer beaters in recent years, but there’s just no way that he’s going to repeat being the 61^st best player in fantasy. He was solid off the bench for the season’s first half, and when Baron Davis had his usual late-season shutdown Fisher went into the starting lineup and probably helped put some fantasy teams over the top in the last month of the season, when he was the 31^st best player. Fisher could end up with the starting SG job in Utah, but it’s the one position the team has depth at, with Gordan Giricek and rookie Ronnie Brewer behind him. Fisher should also see some time at the point, but if he’s mostly playing SG it should hurt his assist numbers, which have never been too strong for a PG. He had a career season at the age of 31 and banking on a repeat on a new team that doesn’t score as much probably isn’t a wise idea.

Double Dribbles: Matt Harpring gives it all he has, and is a gritty, high-percentage player, but he just doesn’t do enough or play enough to merit much fantasy consideration. The 48% shooting is nice, but you need more than 10 shots per game for it to really mean anything … Gordan Giricek is like a poor man’s version of Harpring. Which says about all you need to know right there … Ronnie Brewer is a rookie playing for Jerry Sloan. That should be enough to scare most folks away. Like many rookies, he might find himself with some value in the season’s second half, but unless he’s a revelation in the preseason it’s hard to see him being worthy of a draft pick.

Um … can I just “pass” here?  The Grizzlies are probably the hardest team to figure out going into the preseason, and they may have the least cumulative fantasy value out of any team in the league.  Let’s look at the overall situation: One, their hands-down best player is out for four months.  No other player on their team averaged even 15 ppg last year.  Two, their PG situation is extremely crowded and includes a rookie and a vet coming off a major injury.  Three, and this is the real kicker, they have Stromile Swift on their roster.  Again.  Whatever:

The Stud: Mike Miller, GF
Who else is it going to be?  Miller was second on the team in scoring last year and should be counted on even more now that Gasol is out.  Whether he’s actually going to be effective in a lead role is questionable at best, but he’s going to be thrown into the fire.  I would look for stats similar to – if not slightly better than – what he did with Orlando before getting dealt in ’03.  Let’s say 18/6 with 2 threes and maybe a steal, with poor percentages.  I mean, he’s a fine mid-round selection, but I think that he may be overvalued as the default number one guy in Memphis.

The Support: Damon Stoudamire, PG
Damon Stoudamire has red flags all over the place, but on the Grizzlies he’ll still be considered the number two guy for fantasy purposes.  Among the flags: He’s coming off of major surgery and missed almost ¾ of the year last year.  Jerry West says that he’s “optimistic that (Stoudamire) will play basketball at a very high standard again.”  Not exactly glowing words from The Logo there.  Another flag is how he performed during the time he was healthy last year – he struggled across the board and really looked like a guy who was continuing his decline.  But again, with no Gasol, Mighty Mouse could rise to the challenge one last time.

The Supporting Support: Eddie Jones, GF
Eddie Jones proved last year that you can have fantasy value even if you only excel in two categories, which he did, contributing solid threes and steals.  The question is, can he do it again?  The odds are probably against him.  He’ll turn 35 in October, and his 1.8 steals last year were his highest since five years ago in Miami.  He’s right on the edge of not having enough value to start, and that’s only if he doesn’t miss significant time with injury (which is possible) and if he sees over 30 mpg again (which is unlikely).  Still, with Gasol out, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that Jones has some value this year, and he’s a fine late-round selection.

The Sleeper: Rudy Gay, F
Gay is really going to get a chance to show his stuff this year.  The Grizzlies shipped their 35-mpg stalwart at F in Shane Battier in order to get Gay, so The Logo must have some faith in him.  Gay may have underperformed at UConn but that didn’t stop Charlie Villanueva from succeeding in the NBA, so Gay is a nice late risk if you can get him in the final few rounds.

The Slacker: Stromile Swift, PF
Let’s take a little trip down FBB Memory Lane to last year, where some bozo (me) said the following about Swift:  “Oh, boy. If there’s one guy that you’ll hear me gush about way too often, it’s Stromile Swift. Here’s a guy that qualifies at C, and puts up great numbers every time he gets minutes. For example, last year in games where he played over 25 minutes, he put up 15/6.5 with 2.3 blocks and a steal. Now that he’s out of fantasy hell in Memphis, we’re hoping that Swift gets about 30 mpg so he can put up numbers like that.”

Not to be outdone, here’s DM: “At the very least, should average around 2 bpg, and that C-eligibility is pretty sweet.”

Needless to say, we both – along with most fantasy players – now hate Swift with a passion.  Swift is yet again being handed another golden opportunity for PT with Gasol out, but don’t get tricked.  He is not to be drafted.  Even if he gets hot for a few games, in the end he’ll be more trouble than he’s worth.  Just trust us on this one.

Double Dribbles:  I wanted to put Pau Gasol in the “supporting support” category, or even the “sleeper” spot, but I can’t do it.  Not with the lack of an IL.  Listen – he’s going to miss half the year, and even then there’s not guarantee he’s going to come back and be effective.  Take a pass … Hakim Warrick showed glimpses last year but not enough to draft him … Alexander Johnson and Kyle Lowry have promise but won’t get the PT to have fantasy value … Chucky Atkins will just not see enough court time either … Dahntay Jones makes DM and I laugh.  Stupid Duke!

Not a whole lot changed in New Jersey after a moderately successful season in which the Nets easily won their (absolutely pathetic) division and took a series in the playoffs before losing to the eventual champions, the Heat. It’s still a three-man team, although Nenad Krstic’s emergence should take a bit of the offensive load off the big three. All the new additions are very minor pieces that might be able to give the Nets some stability on the bench, but this looks like a team with four definite fantasy contributors and nobody else who’s even worthy of a bench spot in deep leagues.

The Stud: Vince Carter, GF
He wasn’t as good as he was in his Jersey debut in 04-05, but we sort of knew that would be the case. He was still plenty effective and finished a very solid 21/23 on the player rater. It might be time to give Carter the benefit of the doubt when it comes to health, as long as things remain stable in New Jersey and he has nothing to complain about. He’s missed just eight games over the past two seasons and should continue to see big minutes since New Jersey has limited offensive weapons. He’s a perfectly safe bet for 25/6/4 with average percentages for his position. There will still be some people who will pass on him simply because they don’t like him, and you know what? That’s fine. This stuff should still be fun and if one of your best players is someone you don’t enjoy rooting for, then don’t take him. That said, you probably shouldn’t pass on him in the third round.

The Support: Jason Kidd, PG
He was the highest rated player on the team last year, but we’ll put him in the second slot. Kidd is obviously someone who should be gone within the first 25 picks, as he finished an impressive 12/17 on the player rater last season. It’s tough to bank on him staying completely healthy for a second consecutive season, though. Kidd missed only the last two games of the season, so it was basically a perfect season of health, something you probably wouldn’t have guessed for a 33 year-old with bad knees. Marcus Williams looked fantastic in the summer league and the Nets might have finally found that backup point guard that can take some of the pressure off Kidd, leading to fewer minutes. It would still be quite surprising if Kidd didn’t see 35 mpg, but if you look at Kidd’s stats and his age, you can’t reasonably expect things to get better. Best case scenario is he maintains his numbers from last year – which include some of his lowest ever averages in points, assists and steals – and it’s quite possible he’ll see some continued ever-so-slight decline and won’t be as fortunate in the health department. He’s by no means someone to avoid, but he’s not someone to reach for.

The Supporting Support: Richard Jefferson, SF
What you see is what you get at this point with Jefferson. He’ll never be a true fantasy superstar because he just doesn’t help enough in any of the specialty categories, but he remains a solid all-around contributor whose strength in the percentages shouldn’t be overlooked. It was very encouraging to see him take his FG% back to its established level after a huge drop to 42% in 04-05 when he had to carry the burden of the offense. He was an impressive 34/39 on the player rater and might not be the most exciting pick in the fourth round, but he’s as steady as they come.

The Sleeper: Eddie House, G
Hey, you look at this roster and try to find a sleeper. House was a ridiculously explosive scorer last year in Phoenix in those rare opportunities when he got the chance. House was 23^rd in the league in points per minute; the names above him are basically the all-star rosters. So that counts for something. Phoenix was the perfect place for House to fire away at will when he got the chance, and it’s no sure thing he’ll get that chance in New Jersey. Still, anyone who managed to attempt 4 3pg in just 17.5 mpg should at least be on fantasy radars.

The Slacker: Nenad Krstic, C
An impressive breakout campaign on offense, but beware the center who gets outrebounded by his PG and who doesn’t block even a shot per game. Granted, there’s no better PG rebounder than Jason Kidd, but the point is that he’s helping to clear those boards, leaving fewer for Krstic. Krstic finished just 92/117 on the player rater last year, and an impressive playoff performance combined with the usual scarcity at center may make him an overvalued commodity on draft day. He’s sort of an improved version of Primoz Brezec, which isn’t anything to get too excited about. Now, he is just 23 years old and could show serious improvement, but it’s not like he’s going to suddenly become a shot-blocking machine. It looks to be a skill he just doesn’t possess. Getting 6.4 rpg and 0.8 bpg from your #1 center puts you in a serious hole in those categories. And it’s not like he’s giving you 5 apg like Brad Miller. Better in real life than fantasy.

Double Dribbles: Jason Collins really has to be the most worthless fantasy player for how many minutes he gets. A 7-footer with percentages of 40/51, who simply cannot score and has no discernable talents whatsoever. How does he still have a starting job? … A horribly timed marijuana suspension won’t keep Cliff Robinson out of the league. He’s back for another season with the Nets and could find some marginal value in very deep leagues if the Nets ever become disillusioned with Collins. Pretty unlikely, though … Marcus Williams won’t be worth having on a roster unless Jason Kidd goes down, and even then the Nets might not feel comfortable giving the rookie tons of PT. Keep an eye on him, though – he has the ability to rack up assists and 3s.