How about your NBA champion Miami Heat? Riding the start of a superstar in Dwyane Wade and the decline of another in Shaq, the Heat outlasted Detroit and then the Mavs, truly earning their championship. Still, despite the league title, the Heat were (and still are) surprisingly thin from a fantasy perspective. There’s really only one guy you can draft without worries, and past him everyone has issues. The Heat of 2006 will look very much like the Heat of 2005, with the exception (perhaps) of Gary Payton, who is still expected to sign. But still, there will be changes – Shaq is a year older, as is Alonzo Mourning, so PT could be up for grabs up front. Let’s see who’s worth your time come draft day.
The Stud: Dwyane Wade, G
What is left to be said about Wade? He’s the darling of the NBA, is legitimately challenging LeBron for “best young player” status, and has a championship under his belt while still being only 24 years old. And from a fantasy perspective, he just keeps getting better. Last year, he set career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals, FG% and FT%. He’s an interesting guy to start your team with because while he qualifies at PG, he contributes in non-PG categories like boards and blocks, while not contributing at all in threes. It’s conceivable that you could draft Wade and proceed to punt threes, particularly in a H2H league.
There was a report earlier in the offseason that Wade was hoping to incorporate the three-point shot into his arsenal. He did connect on 14 of them in the playoffs, after only hitting 13 during the entire regular season. But he’s only attempted a few treys for Team USA despite the drawn-in three point line. Wade’s interest in the three-point shot is going to be a major development during training camp and exhibition season. If he sticks with it, he could move from the mid-late first round into the top five overall.
The Support: Shaquille O’Neal, C
Shaq is, as always, one of the most intriguing fantasy players out there. He’s no longer dominant in any category besides FG%, but even with a career-low 30 mpg last year he still put up 20/9.2 and 1.8 blocks. Of course, owning Shaq comes with its fair share of negatives: his lack of games and hideous stats from the line were enough to put him as the 13th best center on the player rater last year. Add in his 2.9 turnovers, a hideous number for a center, and Shaq is just not worth what it’s going to cost to get him. He’s the worst 20-point, 9-rebound, 1.8 block, 60%-shooting center we’ve ever seen.
The conventional wisdom back in Shaq’s glory days was if you took him early, punt FT% and take your chances. Now that he’s not a top pick, you have to see if your top picks dictate taking him. If it’s the fifth round or so, and it looks like you’re going to be punting FT’%, that’s when it’s time to start looking at Shaq. But other than that, you’re probably better off avoiding him.
The Supporting Support: Jason Williams, PG
Jason Williams was very quiet last season, but still an OK guy to have around on your team. His assists fell significantly with the move to Miami, where he’s not the primary ball handler, but then again his assists have fallen each of the last 3 seasons. His steals also slipped below 1, but he connected on 1.8 3’s and picked up both of his percentages. With Gary Payton still unsigned, Williams could see closer to 35 mpg, and that could mean a slight uptick in his numbers across the board. He’s a nice utility pick in the late rounds, but if he’s your PG2 you’ve got issues. He gets the slight nod over Antoine Walker here.
The Sleeper: Wayne Simien, PF
On a team where the eight-man rotation stays completely in tact except for possibly Gary Payton, there aren’t going to be many extra minutes to go around to the kids. Especially because there aren’t any kids here. Dorell Wright and Wayne Simien are the only youngsters around, and neither have done anything to suggest they’ll have value any time soon. But we have to pick one, and I’ve liked Simien since his college days. With Shaq and Zo both old and creaky, Simien could get a chance at some PT. That said, I wouldn’t even think about drafting him.
The Slacker: Antoine Walker, F
There might not be any sleepers here, but there are slackers galore! We’ll go with our favorite slacker of the bunch, Antoine Walker, if only because he tricked me into picking him last year in the 14th round or so. Also, he got a lot of praise during the playoffs, so here’s a helpful reminder: Walker is bad news. His stats might not look too bad (he did improve in FT% last year, and hit 1.7 threes), but you’ll have many more “ugh” games from ‘Toine than good ones. Avoid.
Double Dribbles:
Udonis Haslem always seems on the verge, but his hideous defensive numbers are reason enough to look elsewhere until you’re filling out your bench … While Shaq was out last November, Alonzo Mourning was a blocks machine to the tune of 3.9 a game. He’s a nice handcuff for Shaq owners with an extra bench spot … James Posey continues to be a “cusp” guy, and should go undrafted unless an injury opens up a greater role for him.