Team Preview: Charlotte Bobcats

You know, for a team that only won 27 games last year, the Charlotte Bobcats sure did have a bunch of fantasy contributors.  At least six Bobcats were worth starting for more than a couple of games at some point, but now that everyone’s healthy and they’ve got one of the most heralded rookies in the game, someone is going to be on the outside looking in. Still, I count six ‘Cats that could/should be taken on draft day.  And there are injury risks all over this squad, though, so maybe everyone will get their chance yet again.  Also, not that you need to know this, but the Bobcats are my big-time sleeper team in the East.  I think they’re playoff bound.  Anyhow:

The Stud: Raymond Felton, PG
I might get some slack for putting Felton here in place of the next two guys, but I’m a huge Felton fan going into 2006-07.  His second half stats last year were pretty much right on par with Kirk Hinrich, a solid PG who should be drafted in the fourth round or so this year.  Consider the fact that he was a rookie putting up those numbers, and Felton has the potential to make “The Leap” this year.  He showed the ability to play both the 1 and the 2 last year, so he’ll be on the court for at least 30 mpg regardless of who else is healthy.  Felton is a spectacular value pick if you can get him in the 6th round or later, and if you’re real confident, he’s worth looking at in the fourth or fifth.

The Support: Gerald Wallace, SF
Wallace is one of the few guys who can be extremely valuable just for his defensive numbers.  He’s basically Shawn Marion lite – a guy whose real value lies in his defense but he helps in other places as well.  What really separates him from the Matrix are three things:  One, his free throw shooting is abysmal.  He’s never gotten out of the mid-sixties, and that’s a problem for a slasher who gets to the line 5 times a game.  Another serious concern is that the closest he’s come to playing a full season was 2 years ago when he played 70 games with the Bobcats.  He’s missed over 25 games each season other than that one.  Finally, he’s got the potential to be a one-year wonder.  Steals and blocks can swing pretty wide from one year to the next, and he might have just lucked out a little last year. Two years ago he only had 1.7 blocks and 1.3 steals, much more pedestrian numbers.  So don’t expect a guaranteed 2+ blocks and steals when you take him on draft day.  Wallace may be overvalued because of these factors, and I’d stay away until at least the 5th round, with apologies to John Hollinger.

The Supporting Support: Brevin Knight, PG
Brevin Knight will go down in infamy here at FBB as a throw-in in an incredibly glorious trade I made with DM last year, where I totally robbed him blind.  Yeah, you heard me DM.  But Knight is an interesting guy to have.  He’s a total steals and assists machine, and is a prototypical PG except that he absolutely refuses to shoot 3-pointers.  The Bobcats were trying to trade him this offseason to make more room for Felton, but the lack of good offers combined with his ability to play alongside Felton meant Knight stays in Charlotte.  If he gets 30 mpg, he’s worth drafting as a PG2, maybe in the 7th or 8th rounds.  If not, he’s not going to have enough value to be a starter on your team.

The Sleeper: Emeka Okafor, FC
Okafor is coming two fairly disappointing years in a row.  His rookie campaign was solid, but unspectacular, and then last year he severely sprained his ankle and only played in 26 games.  He’s been a big disappointment in blocks, where he was absolutely dominant in college but so far has been fairly mediocre in the pros.  His FG% has also been surprisingly putrid, particularly for a C, and he’s never been solid from the stripe.  All that said, Okafor could be a great value pick this year.  He’s a poor man’s Tim Duncan, and at 24 still has time to “break out.”  Now that Wallace and Felton have established themselves as offensive threats, and Adam Morrison offense as well, opposing defenses won’t be able to clamp down on Okafor in the post, and that means he should improve his FG%.  He’s not your typical sleeper but he could be very undervalued going into drafts this year.  He’s worth thinking about in the 4th round, especially if you don’t have a center at that point.

The Slacker: Adam Morrison
Now, don’t get me wrong.  Adam Morrison is my (and many others’) preseason pick for ROY.  He can score, and that’s what the Bobcats are going to let him do.  He played very well in the summer leagues and should have a nice rookie campaign.  But here’s the problem: other than points, I’m not sure that Morrison will help your team much at all.  His FG% in school was a respectable 49% but that should take a hit in the NBA.  His FT% should come in right around 80, which will help a bit, and he could hit upwards of 2 3’s a night.  If everything goes right, he should be a Mike Miller type, but with fewer rebounds and maybe – maybe – a few more points.  The other issue is that he’s got a world of hype surrounding him, which will surely inflate his draft stock.  I can see him going as early as the 6th round or so, when really he doesn’t deserve a look before the 8th or 10th round.  If you’re drafting him as a positional starter, I think you’re going to be disappointed.  But if he falls to where you’re drafting for a utility or bench spot, then he’s a nice pick.

Double Dribbles:  Sean May showed flashes his rookie year and looked great in the summer leagues, and should Okafor re-sprain his ankle could be in line for a nice season, but I don’t know that he’s worth drafting … Primoz Brezec is just average at everything, and that’s when he’s getting plenty of minutes – I wouldn’t expect him to play as much this year if everyone else is healthy … Matt Carroll may have value at the end of the year if you’re desperate for threes, but he’s not draftable.

01
Eric
September 13th, 2006 11:29 am

stl/40 and blk/40 don’t vary much per year, so the analysis on wallace is correct (he is likely to regress to the mean) but the explanation (steals and blocks can swing pretty widely) is not accurate. See http://fbjunkie.blogspot.com/2005_09_25_fbjunkie_archive.html

02
bv
September 13th, 2006 11:55 am

Eric, great link. Question for you, though - in part 2, are those numbers the std dev of their overall numbers (i.e. average points) or the std dev of their player rater value in each category?

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