Denver’s an interesting team from a fantasy perspective. It was one of the highest scoring squads in the league last season, but had only three true fantasy options. Carmelo Anthony is the unquestioned centerpiece of this team for as long as he wants to be but remains out of the top realm of fantasy superstars. The Nuggets frontcourt is packed, but almost exclusively with fragile players, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see different guys have lots of value at different points in the season.
The Stud: Carmelo Anthony, SF
The question now is this – is there anything left that he can do to take his fantasy game to the next level? I don’t doubt that Carmelo will continue to blossom into a true superstar in real life, but I just wonder if he can do anything else to raise him above “complementary star” status for fantasy purposes. You couldn’t have asked for more last year. After a sophomore season in which he showed negligible gains, Anthony raised his shooting percentage a full five points to 48%, which on nearly 20 shots a game gave him serious value in that category and helped him average 26.5 ppg. He also became more aggressive, getting to the free throw line nearly 9 times a game, and hitting a career high 81%. But those categories are where all of Anthony’s value lie. After three seasons it’s becoming pretty clear that he’s not an effective three-point shooter, and his attempts and percentage have dropped every year. His rebound rate saw a sharp drop last season and he’s simply mediocre, given his position, at assists, steals and blocks. His durability, youth and unquestioned alpha dog status are all great positives. Due to his lack of a dominant secondary skill, though, I can’t recommend taking him before the third round.
The Support: Marcus Camby, C
You don’t get a much more typical Marcus Camby season than last year’s campaign. Out of this world production when healthy, but good luck figuring out when that will be. Camby had one stretch, mostly in January, in which he missed 15 consecutive games. Fine – fantasy owners can deal with prolonged absences. But there were 11 other instances of him missing at least one game, sprinkled throughout the season. That’s when things get really frustrating, especially for those in weekly leagues. If anyone is worth it though, Camby might be that guy. Even with missing 26 games, he finished at #42 on the player rater, and was the #11 player by averages. That’s first round production. After two seasons in which he played 138 total games – the highest two-season stretch of his career – Camby regressed last year, but at least his performance didn’t. He set career highs in rebound and steal rates and posted his best scoring and block rates this decade. He’s proven to be an elite fantasy talent when on the court, with rebound/steal/block numbers that only Ben Wallace can come close to matching. He remains the ultimate risk-reward choice. Counting on him for more than 60 games might be pushing it, but he’s proven he’s worth it for those 60 games. Unless you plan on having three solid centers, I’d probably let someone else take Camby. Throwing some scrub at center for at least 20 games doesn’t appeal to me, but if he’s still sitting there in the fourth round, it’s going to be tempting.
The Supporting Support: Andre Miller, PG
Boring, consistent, effective. That’s Andre Miller. I love a player who stays healthy, and Miller has missed all of three games in his seven year career. He finished last season at #48 on the player rater, which puts him at a borderline 4th/5th round value in 12-team leagues. His durability helps him place that high, so in terms of day to day performance he’s not quite as high (see his #63 spot on the player rater by averages). Miller saw a welcome bump in assists last season, jumping from 6.9 to 8.2 per game, his highest total since his ridiculous 01-02 season. Everything else was exactly where you’d expect it to be, except for a serious dip in FT%, from 84% to 74%, which hurt even more since he had 1.5 more attempts per game than in 04-05. Likely just a blip, and likely you can fill in Miller’s stat line right now and not be too far off – 14/4/7.5 with 1.5 steals on 46/80 shooting. I like him starting in the fifth round as a #2 PG. If you find yourself without a PG early, I’d avoid reaching for him in the 4th round. You still need to get the best value that early.
The Sleeper: J.R. Smith, SG
Sleeper, sure, but at the same time a much bigger Beware of Overhyped Sleeper. Here’s what he has working for him – the inside track on the starting SG job for last year’s fifth-highest scoring team, a team that desperately wants someone who can light it up from the outside. Besides that, there’s not too much working for him except youth and the possibility that he’ll show dramatic improvement. Last year’s ongoing spat with Byron Scott rendered his 05-06 pretty much a lost season, as he didn’t really get a chance to improve on his rookie campaign. Smith has yet to prove himself as an outside threat. He did improve to 37% (from 29%) behind the arc last year, but he is still a career 39% shooter overall and 32% from long range. For a big guard he’s been particularly disappointing on the boards and his steals numbers have been average. The departures of both DeMarr Johnson and Ruben Patterson make it more likely that Smith will see regular minutes, even with the presence of Earl Boykins. And as well all know, PT can make up for skill deficiencies. If it looks like he’s going to be the starter, he’s worth a late-round selection, but guys like this almost always go a round or two earlier than they should and end up disappointing.
The Slacker: Kenyon Martin, PF
There’s just nothing to like about K-Mart right now. He’s basically become Stromile Swift except with chronic knee problems, a worse attitude and no center eligibility. The comparison works because the two were the first two picks in the 2000 draft and both have failed to live up to the hype of those early draft positions. Well, you know what? That draft sucked! Darius Miles, Marcus Fizer, Mike Miller, DeMarr Johnson, Chris Mihm. Those were the rest of the first seven picks. In most years K-Mart would have likely been simply an mid-to-upper lottery pick, and it would be a lot easier to accept his mediocre play. Martin’s knee problems aren’t going away, and it doesn’t seem likely that his issues with George Karl will either. A rumored deal to Portland for Zach Randolph would just put him in another tumultuous environment. And it’s of course worth noting that Martin has never averaged 17 points or 10 rebounds in a season.
Double Dribbles: If there was a fantasy league for most overpaid people in the world, Nene would be a great asset. In fantasy basketball, though, he’s still just an unproven big man in a crowded frontcourt who is coming off major surgery. We’ll see if he can make any improvements over his established level of play after a whole season off. He’s part of a very fragile but very full frontcourt. With all of the bodies around the Nuggets might want to limit the minutes of their big investment as the season begins. Don’t expect too much too soon from Nene … Earl Boykins has established himself as one of the most reliable bench player in the league in his three years with the Nuggets. That doesn’t mean he’s a particularly valuable fantasy asset. He’s simply a 25-minute player and doesn’t do enough in those 25 minutes to merit much roster consideration. His FG% is brutal and he doesn’t grab too many steals … Reggie Evans is a rebounding machine, but that’s it. Even if he found himself in the starting lineup it would be tough to justify getting him into most lineups … There are worse points/rebounds guys around than Joe Smith, but he seems to be near the end of the road, as both his games and minutes have dropped in recent years. The Denver frontcourt is a situation to watch, as Eduardo Najera is also in the mix as one of six bigs. It’s possible that only Camby will have value. Until he gets hurt, of course.