Don’t look now, but the Atlanta Hawks doubled their win total in 2005-06. Their big offseason acquisition worked out as well as they possibly could have hoped, their youngsters developed, and they signed a pretty decent player to a not-so-crippling contract this summer. Despite their troubles in the front office, it’s been a not-too-bad 12 months on and around the court for the Hawks. Well, as not-too-bad as you could hope for with a 26-win team. From a fantasy perspective, they’ve got about four or five guys who could qualify as “sleepers” on the Hawks. One of them has to emerge, right? Especially with the departure of Al Harrington? Let’s see if we can figure out who’s the best candidate.
The Stud: Joe Johnson, G
The Joe Johnson experiment went about as well as anyone could have imagined last year. Sure he turned the ball over plenty, but he also put up 20/4/6 with 1.6 threes and 1.3 steals and is really making a case to be a second round pick. The only major question mark is how Speedy Claxton’s presence will affect Johnson’s numbers. He should take a moderate his in assists, but make no mistake – regardless of who’s at the point officially, Johnson is the main ball handler in Atlanta. If anything, a true point next to him will allow Johnson to free himself up off the ball for more open jumpers. I’d look for him to maintain at least 5 assists, while maybe even improving to over 2 threes a game. I think you have to consider him in the second round – where in the second round, we’ll address that in our mock draft next month.
The Support: Josh Smith, GF
Josh Smith is going to be one of the most popular picks in fantasy basketball this fall, and with good reason. His post-break stats last year, 15/8/4 with 1 three, 1 steal, and THREE blocks? The percentages aren’t too great, but those are some crazy numbers. He is going to be at the top of everyone’s sleeper lists this year, and honestly, if you really want him, you’re going to have to overpay. If he maintains his pace from last year, he’s a third round pick, maybe fourth, but that’s a big “if” that early in the draft. Regardless of his true value, that’s likely where you’re going to have to go to draft him. If you’re feeling real confident with your team after the opening few rounds, I’d say go for it, because he’ll be off the board by the fifth.
The Supporting Support: Speedy Claxton, PG
Claxton is the other guy that everyone is really high on for Atlanta, and he’s another guy that you’re likely going to have to overpay for this year. He’s a classic “guy who you heard a lot about in the offseason” type, which generally inflates value, and he’s also going to get a lot of attention because he’s moving right into the starting PG spot. The last time he had the starting spot, when he was in Golden State, he put up decent numbers (13/6 with 2 steals), but nothing too flashy and certainly nothing to suggest that he’s a PG1 or even a top PG2. I think somebody’s going to reach for him in the 5th or 6th round, but I think his limit is more a Brevin Knight type – and that’s a top limit. I’d hold off until the 8th round or so.
The Sleeper: Marvin Williams, F
Josh Smith is the sexy pick, but Marvin Williams is the smart risk. Williams might get lost in the Hawks discussion, but make no mistake – the minutes and points that belonged to Al Harrington are now going to go to Williams. The toughest thing to figure out with Williams is if he’ll try any threes this year. He shot them occasionally early on last year, but only hit one after February. There’s not much to suggest that Williams will excel in any one category, but you should be able to get him pretty late in the game that he’ll be a safe bet. My guess is he’ll get around 35 mpg, and put up number around 14/8 with a steal, .7 blocks and .7 3’s. Something like what Charlie Villanueva did last year. If you can grab in him the late rounds, I’d say go for it.
The Slacker: Zaza Pachulia, FC
Pachulia is one of those guys who really lands on fantasy teams for one reason – his center eligibility. He scores a bit, rebounds nicely, and doesn’t do much else, but in the late rounds of your draft he was worth a flyer if you need a center. However, now that the Hawks have beefed up there front line – well, at least they signed Lorenzen Wright, Pachulia will likely see a drop in minutes to somewhere around 20-25 per game, which is enough to take him out of any fantasy value.
Double Dribbles: This is a make-or-break year for Josh Childress in terms of fantasy value. After a promising rookie campaign, last year he showed essentially no improvement. The basics are there for a solid roster filler – good FG%, ok boards and steals, and the occasional three, but he needs just a slight uptick in all of them to really have any value. He’ll never be anything spectacular but just slight improvement makes him a nice utility guy … Lorenzen Wright tops out as a poor third center, and now that he’s behind Pachulia he should have no value … I like Shelden Williams coming out of college, but his poor performance in the summer leagues and the crowded front court means that he’ll struggle to see much court time … Salim Stoudamire can certainly shoot the ball, but he’ll need an injury or two to see enough court time to have value. He’ll be worth watching for teams that really need threes late in the year.