You know, a ton of people might hate on Mark Cuban, but you have to admit he’s made some pretty good decisions regarding his team. He made a tough call in letting Steve Nash go a few years ago, but it seems to have been for the best, as Dirk Nowitzki became a true team leader and took the Mavs all the way to the NBA finals last year. Cuban also has found some gems, like left-for-dead Desagana Diop, and even has found useful roles for guys well past their primes, like Jerry Stackhouse. You can’t win ‘em all (Erick Dampier, for example), but give Cuban some credit – his team was the best in a pretty talented West last year. As for fantasy, they’ve got one of the most solid fantasy players in the league in Dirk, but behind him there’s so much talent that often, minutes are hard to find:
The Stud: Dirk Nowitzki, PF
Dirk is one of the safest picks you can make in your fantasy draft, which is why he won’t fall out of the top 5 in most leagues. While his defensive numbers fell a bit last year, Dirk shot up the charts in his percentages. I say, let ‘em have a couple of blocks. If you draft Dirk, you are well on your way to leading your league in FT%. His 90% is 5% better than any other PF or C (Yao Ming is next at 85), and he gets to the line over seven times a game. Throw in his 1.4 threes and potential for over a block and a steal, plus (oh yeah) his 26 points and 9 boards, and really the only spot you don’t have covered with your first round pick is assists. He’s a great first rounder to pair with one of the second-round PGs.
The Support: Jason Terry, PG
I’m actually pretty lukewarm on Terry this year. Yes he can fill it up from outside, evidenced by his 2.1 threes last year. But he’s really a huge liability in assists (only 3.8 last year), and that’s just not something you can afford to have with a PG1. Terry certainly CAN pass the ball, but with the emergence of Devin Harris in the playoffs, and the acquisition of Anthony Johnson, Terry will likely spend even more of his time playing off the ball this season. His points and threes mean that he might cost you as much as a fourth round pick, but I’d make sure I had a strong assists guy so that I could play Terry at G or Utility before drafting him.
The Supporting Support: Josh Howard, F
Howard, too has to be considered over-rated going into this season. I think he’s a great player, but he’s a guy that will be taken a couple of rounds too early in most drafts. I occasionally check out the Yahoo! Big Board to see what they’re saying about value, and Howard is interesting. In two so-called “experts drafts” (note that FBB did not get an invite, so “expert” is a dubious term at best), Howard went 73rd and 67th overall. My question: why? He was 86th on the Average Player Rater, and he missed 23 games, putting him at 116 on the Total Player Rater. It’s not like his missed time was a one-time deal, either – he missed 15 games in his rookie year, and 6 in his sophomore campaign. He’s certainly not going to see many more minutes that the 32 he saw last year. He’s not a standout in any one category. I’d hold off until at least the ninth round or so before drafting him – but someone else will probably take him around the seventh.
The Sleeper: Devin Harris, PG
Harris could be overvalued because of his explosion in the playoffs last year, but I think he might live up to his hype. The trades of Marquis Daniels and Darrell Armstrong clear things up a bit for Harris, even if Anthony Johnson was added in one of the deals. Johnson certainly won’t play the combined 38.5 mpg that Armstrong and Daniels had, and Jason Terry will likely fill a lot of those minutes that Daniels played at SG. Harris, however, while he had a great postseason, also had a couple of concerning games. Specifically, I’m worried about games three and five against San Antonio, where he played a total of 68 minutes, and dished out a total of ZERO assists. Still, if he gets 30 mpg, he should contribute enough in points and steals – and a few assists – that he’ll be worth a late-round pick.
The Slacker: Jerry Stackhouse, GF
There are a ton of candidates for “slacker” on the Mavs, but we’ll pick Jerry Stackhouse for the second year in a row, because he’s got the most “perceived” value of the group. In late rounds, a name guy who still scores double digits will look pretty good, but a closer look shows that Stackhouse provides almost no value outside of the points and a nice FT%. Fewer than three boards and assists, less than one steal and one three, and a terrible FG% means that Stack will do more harm than good for your squad, and shouldn’t be drafted.
Double Dribbles: Erick Dampier has the potential to be a “slacker,” but right now expectations are so low that he just doesn’t qualify … Dasagana Diop – this year’s Adonal Foyle? I mean, other than the original Adonal Foyle … a couple of injuries could open up serious minutes for Maurice Ager, and if so he could be a nice sleeper pick but he’s not worth drafting … Devean George should steal minutes from teammates, but that’s about it … Anthony Johnson may have had value last year in Indiana but he’ll struggle to see enough minutes in Dallas.