The Kings will be one of the more interesting teams to watch from a fantasy perspective this season. During the Rick Adelman era, the Kings were a goldmine for fantasy production. They played a high-scoring brand of basketball and Adelman used a short rotation that saw his best players receive very healthy minutes. Eric Musselman has a reputation as a defensive coach, but in the first seasons at Golden State, the Warriors were the second highest scoring team in the league. So we’ll see if he once again adjusts to the type of team he inherits, because this certainly is not a team full of defensive stoppers.
The Stud: Mike Bibby, PG
Regular readers of FBB know that I’ve always been a fan of Bibby. Consistency from the PG position is a wonderful thing to have and Bibby delivers it with the best of them. Last year saw him pick up much more of scoring slack, averaging a career high 21.1 ppg and 2.3 3pg, while his assist numbers dropped back down to his Sacramento norm of around 5.4 per game. Bibby is certainly more in the Jason Terry camp when it comes to PG, but you know that going on, so you can plan accordingly. You must note a disturbing trend in Bibby’s stats, though. In four consecutive seasons, his FGA have increased, while his FG% has decreased, dropping to 43.2% last season, his lowest mark since his rookie year. This has gone from a strength of Bibby’s to a slight weakness. Bibby finished at #26 on the player rater last year, no doubt helped by the fact that he played the 9th most total minutes in the league. His average rater position was #36, but staying healthy is a skill and Bibby has suffered just one serious injury in his eight-year career and he almost never misses random games. He’s as good a bet for 80 games as there is, and that’s certainly something you want from a pick in the first three rounds.
The Support: Brad Miller, C
Miller has turned in three consistent seasons with the Kings, but I’ll admit that I’m worried about him this year. Despite appearing in a career-high 79 games last season, he showed some warning signs. He averaged by far the lowest rebounding rate of his career, his lowest block rate since coming to Sacramento and his lowest FTA rate. A career-high assist rate shows that Miller is truly transitioning to a more perimeter-oriented big man. His 49.5% from the field was still very solid, but well off his previous two seasons in Sacramento. Miller is 30 years old, with an injury history and is coming off an especially healthy season. His all-around numbers can’t be underestimated and he should remain a premium player. Because of his center eligibility he won’t be a bargain. Spending a third round pick on a fragile center who doesn’t block shots isn’t really my thing. I don’t like avoiding players, because drafts can take many different turns, but I doubt Miller will be on my team this season.
The Supporting Support: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, F
What an odd fall from fantasy grace it’s been for Abdur-Rahim. Throughout his first eight years in the league there was no more consistent player than Abdur-Rahim. You knew exactly what you were getting from him, and you knew his team would suck. Ever since his trade from Atlanta it’s been quite rocky, though. He was never comfortable in the mess that was Portland and lost his starting job to Kenny Thomas after breaking his jaw last year. His track record remains strong, but he’s 30 years old now and it’s been two and half seasons since he has put up consistent top numbers. Thomas and Corliss Williamson are still around to push him for minutes. For Abdur-Rahim it’s all about the minutes and Musselman’s preference.
The Sleeper: Kevin Martin, SG
Martin was one of the better free agent pickups of last season and is line for a starting job out of the gate this year, so he likely won’t be too much of a sleeper. He started 41 games last season and saw a healthy 33.8 mpg in those contests, thanks to Adelman. Martin is in the same mold as Tayshaun Prince and Josh Howard, late first round picks who emerged to show off impressive all-around games. If Martin continues to attempt 3s like he did last year, he’ll maintain his value. What’s most important is that he holds off new acquisition John Salmons and second-year player Francisco Garcia for the majority of the minutes at the two. If he can do that, he’s still young and smart enough to show continued improvement across the board.
The Slacker: Ron Artest, SF
Possibly the first player on the team to get drafted is the slacker? Sure, why not? From a basketball standpoint, it was nice to simply see Artest stay on the court for a few consecutive months once he landed in Sacramento. You can’t say his troubles are behind him – if we consider staying physically health a skill, then maybe we have to consider staying mentally healthy a skill as well. Not so sure Artest has mastered that skill. You saw that Artest shot a truly dismal 38.3% from the field with the Kings, right? He won’t be that bad again, but remember that he is a 41.6% career shooter. He will hurt you there, big time. Artest enjoyed launching 3s once he got to Sacramento, although we’ll see if Musselman lets him continue to do so. He attempted 5 3pg with the Kings, hitting on just 30%. That’s not going to help you win many games. Artest is a near lock to be in the top 10 in the league in steals but I think he’s overrated for fantasy purposes even though he’ll receive tons of minutes.
Double Dribbles: Francisco Garcia should probably be the sleeper. With his modest abilities in 3s, steals and blocks he has the makings of a poor man’s Tayshaun Prince, and is another one of those late first rounders that could pan out. It’ll take injuries to give him value and he wasn’t all that impressive in 11 starts last season, but Garcia is someone who can fill up a stat sheet … It’s hard to blame the Kings for not giving Abdur-Rahim his starting job back because Kenny Thomas deserved to be out there. He turned in an incredibly efficient season, shooting a career-high 50.5%, including 52.3% as a starter. He’s more of a ESPN bottom line player than a great fantasy player. You’ll like seeing that “SAC Thomas: 14 points, 11 rebounds” crawl across the screen, but there won’t be much else to like … John Salmons finally landed in Sacramento after it looked like he was definitely going to Toronto, then definitely going to Phoenix. If the minutes are there – which they almost certainly won’t be – he’s a decent end of roster guy.