How about your NBA champion Miami Heat?  Riding the start of a superstar in Dwyane Wade and the decline of another in Shaq, the Heat outlasted Detroit and then the Mavs, truly earning their championship.  Still, despite the league title, the Heat were (and still are) surprisingly thin from a fantasy perspective.  There’s really only one guy you can draft without worries, and past him everyone has issues.  The Heat of 2006 will look very much like the Heat of 2005, with the exception (perhaps) of Gary Payton, who is still expected to sign.  But still, there will be changes – Shaq is a year older, as is Alonzo Mourning, so PT could be up for grabs up front.  Let’s see who’s worth your time come draft day.
 

The Stud: Dwyane Wade, G
What is left to be said about Wade?  He’s the darling of the NBA, is legitimately challenging LeBron for “best young player” status, and has a championship under his belt while still being only 24 years old.  And from a fantasy perspective, he just keeps getting better.  Last year, he set career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals, FG% and FT%.  He’s an interesting guy to start your team with because while he qualifies at PG, he contributes in non-PG categories like boards and blocks, while not contributing at all in threes.  It’s conceivable that you could draft Wade and proceed to punt threes, particularly in a H2H league.
 

There was a report earlier in the offseason that Wade was hoping to incorporate the three-point shot into his arsenal.  He did connect on 14 of them in the playoffs, after only hitting 13 during the entire regular season. But he’s only attempted a few treys for Team USA despite the drawn-in three point line.  Wade’s interest in the three-point shot is going to be a major development during training camp and exhibition season.  If he sticks with it, he could move from the mid-late first round into the top five overall.
 

The Support: Shaquille O’Neal, C
Shaq is, as always, one of the most intriguing fantasy players out there.  He’s no longer dominant in any category besides FG%, but even with a career-low 30 mpg last year he still put up 20/9.2 and 1.8 blocks.  Of course, owning Shaq comes with its fair share of negatives: his lack of games and hideous stats from the line were enough to put him as the 13^th best center on the player rater last year.  Add in his 2.9 turnovers, a hideous number for a center, and Shaq is just not worth what it’s going to cost to get him.  He’s the worst 20-point, 9-rebound, 1.8 block, 60%-shooting center we’ve ever seen. 
 

The conventional wisdom back in Shaq’s glory days was if you took him early, punt FT% and take your chances.  Now that he’s not a top pick, you have to see if your top picks dictate taking him.  If it’s the fifth round or so, and it looks like you’re going to be punting FT’%, that’s when it’s time to start looking at Shaq.  But other than that, you’re probably better off avoiding him.
 

The Supporting Support: Jason Williams, PG
Jason Williams was very quiet last season, but still an OK guy to have around on your team.  His assists fell significantly with the move to Miami, where he’s not the primary ball handler, but then again his assists have fallen each of the last 3 seasons.  His steals also slipped below 1, but he connected on 1.8 3’s and picked up both of his percentages.  With Gary Payton still unsigned, Williams could see closer to 35 mpg, and that could mean a slight uptick in his numbers across the board.  He’s a nice utility pick in the late rounds, but if he’s your PG2 you’ve got issues.  He gets the slight nod over Antoine Walker here.
 

The Sleeper: Wayne Simien, PF
On a team where the eight-man rotation stays completely in tact except for possibly Gary Payton, there aren’t going to be many extra minutes to go around to the kids.  Especially because there aren’t any kids here.  Dorell Wright and Wayne Simien are the only youngsters around, and neither have done anything to suggest they’ll have value any time soon.  But we have to pick one, and I’ve liked Simien since his college days.  With Shaq and Zo both old and creaky, Simien could get a chance at some PT.  That said, I wouldn’t even think about drafting him.
 

The Slacker: Antoine Walker, F
There might not be any sleepers here, but there are slackers galore!  We’ll go with our favorite slacker of the bunch, Antoine Walker, if only because he tricked me into picking him last year in the 14^th round or so.  Also, he got a lot of praise during the playoffs, so here’s a helpful reminder:  Walker is bad news.  His stats might not look too bad (he did improve in FT% last year, and hit 1.7 threes), but you’ll have many more “ugh” games from ‘Toine than good ones.  Avoid.
 

Double Dribbles:
Udonis Haslem always seems on the verge, but his hideous defensive numbers are reason enough to look elsewhere until you’re filling out your bench … While Shaq was out last November, Alonzo Mourning was a blocks machine to the tune of 3.9 a game.  He’s a nice handcuff for Shaq owners with an extra bench spot … James Posey continues to be a “cusp” guy, and should go undrafted unless an injury opens up a greater role for him.

A quick note before we begin…

Summer’s over. It means a lot of things – back to school for some, no more having to watch the same episodes of The Office stored on my TiVo for others – but here at FBB that means it’s time to kick it into high gear with preparation for the new season. We’ll start out by taking a look at every team in the league, the most relevant players on that team and their outlook for the 06-07 season. We’ll do one team per day (even some on Saturdays) until we get through the entire league – even the Blazers. That will take us into October when we can start getting really serious about rankings, mock drafts and all that fun stuff. As always, we love to read your comments, especially when you tell us how right we are.

The Celtics are an extremely young, extremely deep team, which is a pretty scary combo for fantasy purposes. There is one sure thing, and that’s Paul Pierce, who will remain the face of the franchise and focal point of the team after signing a contract extension in the offseason. After that, who knows? After nearly two full seasons of health, Wally Szczerbiak missed the end of the season and had knee surgery, which is a definite red flag. Last year’s breakout star. Delonte West, isn’t even assured a starting job after Danny Ainge brought in Sebastian Telfair and declared him the team’s point guard of the future. Apparent stud-in-waiting Al Jefferson had a year of regression while second-round draft pick Ryan Gomes was one of the team’s brightest spots in the second half of the season. Kendrick Perkins showed improvement, but a draft night trade that brought in Theo Ratliff makes his playing time situation a bit cloudy. Throw in the fact that Doc Rivers mixes and matches his lineups more than anyone else in the league and the Celtics could be one of the most frustrating teams in the league this year for fantasy players.

The Stud: Paul Pierce, GF
Pierce was likely responsible for many fantasy championships last year. A consensus second-round pick going into the season, Pierce delivered first-round numbers and was certainly one of the most pleasant players to own. He remained perfectly healthy, missing only the seasons’ final three meaning less games. (And you ask why head-to-head championship in the season’s final week is a horrible idea.) He had nothing resembling a prolonged slump and had one stretch in February and March where there was arguably the best player in the league. He finished the season as the 11^th ranked player, giving positive contributions in every category except blocks. In other words, he was the perfect player to nab in the second round behind another legit superstar. Pierce shot the ball better – and much more often – last year, but other than that his numbers were exactly in line with previous seasons, so you pretty much know what to expect this season. He’s unquestionably the team’s #1 option and unless he shows ill effects from offseason elbow surgery in the preseason, it shouldn’t be anything to worry about. He can be considered starting at the #9 slot in drafts, but he’s still ideal in that 12-15 range.

The Support: Wally Szczerbiak, GF
Wally gets the nod here almost by default. His health remains a question mark, as does his role on this crowded, young team. Szczerbiak’s midseason relocation to Boston had virtually no effect on his numbers. He scored and played just a touch less, but unless you’re really looking hard, it’s difficult to see any other changes. He finished a very solid #55 on the player rater, and was that rare player whose clear strength was FT%, a category in which he was the 9^th most valuable player last year. His near 48% shooting was also plenty valuable from the SG/SF slot and his added value last year came from a career high 1.5 3pg. He remains a wholly unexciting pick and his offseason surgery will probably scare some people off. The Celtics are certainly a team to follow in the preseason to try and assess what roles each player will have. If it looks like Szczerbiak will be starting and receiving around 35 mpg, then he’s a fine mid-round pick, although you might want to put him on the lower end because of those health questions.

The Supporting Support: Delonte West, G
Despite the overcrowded roster, I refuse to believe that West won’t get a chance to repeat – and improve on – his breakout campaign. I might be giving the Celtics braintrust a bit too much credit for knowing what they have in West, but we’ll see. He’s not your classic PG, but he makes up for his lack of playmaking abilities with extremely efficient play and ability to help everywhere. An ineffective and injury-plagued final month took a bit of the shine off his season, but he still managed to finish at #58 on the player rater, just in front of Rip Hamilton. His 49% from the field was a huge plus at the PG position, as were his 0.7 bpg, which helped make up for his relatively mediocre 1.2 3pg and 4.6 apg. West is a smart player and I like his chances to adapt to a different role if he needs to. If Szczerbiak can’t stay healthy, West could see time at SG and for all the youngsters in the backcourt he’s the only one who has a productive NBA season under his belt. Don’t overvalue him, but don’t be surprised if he ends up with another very productive season.

The Sleeper: Kendrick Perkins, FC
Theo Ratliff’s presence could result in a time-share situation, or even Perkins coming off the bench at first, but Ratliff has missed big chunks of time in two straight years, so there’s a good chance Perkins will have the middle to himself for some stretch during the season. Perkins actually resembles a young version of the player he’s competing against for PT. He hasn’t shown much offensive ability yet, but was just outside the top 10 in the league last year in blocks and rebounds per minute. He has a chance to average near double digit boards and 2+ blocks, which would give him definite value as a #2 center.

The Slacker: Sebastian Telfair, PG
He showed ever-so-slight improvement last year, at least from a fantasy perspective. He still didn’t rack up that many assists for someone who’s thought of as such a playmaker, and his assist/turnover ratio remained mediocre. He still couldn’t break the 40% mark from the field and remained a liability on the boards, even for a PG. He began to develop a three-point shot and increased his steal rate, both promising developments. But game-to-game consistency remains a problem, and while some of that was certainly due to the situation in Portland, it doesn’t look all that different in Boston this year. Counting on Telfair as anything more than an extra PG isn’t recommended at all. Ainge wouldn’t have brought him in if he didn’t think the potential was there, but there’s a real chance he could be the third best PG on this team.

Double Dribbles: This might finally be the season to target Al Jefferson. Post-hype sleepers often deliver some of the better values around, but I remain unconvinced of any sort of impending stardom for Jefferson. The ability is there and he’s young enough to make a big leap, but his past inconsistency and the crowded roster make it hard to get too excited … Ryan Gomes was a minor force after the all-star break last season, averaging 12.6/7.6/1.7 with a steal on 51% shooting. He doesn’t really help in any of the specialty categories so he needs to keep that FG% high to maintain his value. There’s no reason why Jefferson should be ahead of him on the depth chart going into training camp, but you have to think that Jefferson will still get every chance to prove he’s the future at the four for the Celts … Theo Ratliff has averaged just 59 games the last two seasons after averaging 83 games per season over the previous two. (Check the numbers!) The one skill you could always count on him for – swatting shots with the best of them – is deteriorating, rendering him increasingly irrelevant for fantasy purposes. His blocks per 40 the past three seasons: 4.6, 3.7, 2.7. That’s two precipitous drops in a row. Beware …