So yesterday was one of the most exciting days of the year – fantasy basketball draft day. Like we’ve said before on here, we are fantasy monogamists. Only one league for us, so this is a monumental moment. How did things go? Pretty well, I think. I’m not entirely thrilled with my team, but I think there are plenty of solid pieces. So I hope you’ll indulge me as I go through my picks and my thought process that led to them.

Round 1, Pick #4
Shawn Marion

I was debating this pick all day, never assuming for a second that the Matrix would fall to me. I was going back and forth between Dirk, Kobe and Gilbert at #4, and convinced myself to go with each of them at different points. But then when Kobe went #2, I knew that either KG or Marion would fall to me, and it ended up being Marion. I’m not concerned about this tailbone injury in the slightest. So there’s a slight chance that he might miss a game or two to start the season. I’ll take six straight years of near-perfect health as a better sample size. I’m not expecting him to shoot 52.5% again, but everything else should be about the same. Getting him at the top makes it easier to not worry about category specialists since he’s such a force in boards, steals and blocks while adding 3s from PF.

Round 2, Pick #21
Jermaine O’Neal

I don’t love this pick, but this was a tough spot to be in. Two players who I would have gladly taken in this spot, Joe Johnson and Andrei Kirilenko, went directly before I was up. I didn’t want to risk a pick on Tracy McGrady, and narrowed my choices down to O’Neal and Vince Carter. I highlighted Carter, but just couldn’t click the “draft” button. For some reason, I really like O’Neal this season. I preach getting 80 games from your early picks, and O’Neal has played in 95 in the past two seasons and is already fighting nagging injuries, but I still pulled the trigger, with his center eligibility being the final factor. I love that his FG% has improved so much over the past few seasons, and I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed that he stays on the court for at least 70 games.

Round 3, Pick #28
Michael Redd

Vinsanity almost fell back down to me, as he went directly before this pick. I was very excited, then had to quickly adjust. This was another tough spot to be in, but after taking a pretty decent risk with O’Neal I figured it would be best to take a sure thing, and Redd qualifies there. He finally started hitting 3s like we always thought he should last year, is a healthy player in his prime years and offers quality percentages. I wouldn’t mind if his scoring dropped off a bit as long as his modest increases in 3s, assists and steals remained at last year’s levels.

Round 4, Pick #45
Stephon Marbury

Well if you read yesterday’s column, this pick shouldn’t be much of a surprise to you. I needed a PG and Marbury fit the bill here. Not much else to say since I said about everything already, but I really think Marbury’s past consistency can’t be discounted and he’ll return to being a top 30 player.

Round 5, Pick #52
Andre Miller

But just in case things don’t work out with Marbury, I decided to back him up with the always solid Miller. We like Miller a lot as a PG2 and not necessarily a PG1, and that’s exactly what I did here. He never misses games, shoots well and if all the preseason hype is to be believed (I don’t necessarily believe it, for the record), he’s going to seriously rack up the assists this season. By getting Redd and Marion early it let me get a couple of PGs who don’t hit all that many 3s.

Round 6, Pick #69
Deron Williams

My own little point guard run, which followed a center run, as Samuel Dalembert, Emeka Okafor and Shaq went directly before this pick. I probably didn’t need another PG, but I thought Williams was the best player out there, so I went for it. Honestly, I probably could have waited since he was ridiculously low on the Yahoo rankings, but I took the player I wanted. I’m not necessarily looking forward to an entire season of dealing with Jerry Sloan, but there’s just not much in the backcourt besides Williams. I wouldn’t mind seeing more steals, but I’d settle for solid percentages. Again, one of the great things about having Marion to anchor your team.

Round 7, Pick #76
Zach Randolph

Yeah yeah yeah, go ahead and blast me for this one. But at least let me present my thinking. After taking three straight PGs, I figured it would be a good idea to take a big man. I had my sights set on Andrew Bogut, but he went a few picks earlier. So looking at my board, I saw a bunch of names that didn’t really excite me too much. So I went with the guy who will be the unquestioned top scoring option on his team, who is just 25 years old and may (may) be ready to mature, who put up 18 and 8 in an off year last season and has career percentages of 47/76. How’s that for some rationalizing?

Round 8, Pick #93
Kevin Martin

Here’s one for the FBB masses. I’m pretty sold on Martin and love him as a mid-late round stabilizing pick. It’s always tough to gauge how a player who has a very solid season completely out of nowhere will follow it up, but he’s young, starts for a high scoring team and should get better. He also plays on a team with a bunch of question marks – Mike Bibby’s already hurt, Ron Artest is Ron Artest and I have this ominous feeling about Brad Miller this year. So Martin might have a chance to pick up some slack as a serious scorer.

Round 9, Pick #100
Tayshaun Prince

No complaints about this one here, consider it a tandem pick with Martin. I was going to seriously consider Channing Frye for my second center, but he was taken right before and in retrospect I’m fine with that. Prince went from being underrated to slightly overrated last year and it looks like he’s back to underrated. He’s the youngest key contributor on the Pistons and might assert himself a bit more offensively this season. At the very least he’s a solid percentages guy who will see 35 mpg and has an outside shot of being a 1/1/1 guy. I’ll take that at #100.

Round 10, Pick #117
Joel Przybilla

I couldn’t wait to take a second center any longer, not after Tyson Chandler, Nenad Krstic, Chris Wilcox and Kendrick Perkins all went between this pick and the last one. The Przy is a notoriously bad free thrower, but he doesn’t shoot all that many of them, so it shouldn’t be too bad. His health issues are certainly a concern, especially since my other center has his own. I could be in deep trouble here. Still, Przybilla is one of those guys who I wouldn’t mind seeing with only 25-28 mpg. He’s proven he can get 2 bpg and 8 rpg in that amount of PT, and it will keep his free throws attempted down. Could be worse.

Round 11, Pick #124
Eddie Jones

Ah, my old favorite. BV knew this one was coming, he called for it in Round 10, but I told him he’d have to wait one more round. I knew he’d be there. I’m expecting a serious drop off, and he’s on my bench to start the season, but the Grizzlies are rather depleted, so he might have no choice but to assert himself as a scorer early on. He did average 1.8 3s and steals last year, not bad for the 11^th round.

Round 12, Pick #141
Derek Fisher

Not sure exactly what I was thinking here, but I don’t mind it. The worst case scenario is that neither he nor Deron Williams can consistently get 35 mpg, but once Fisher gets healthy the two of them should receive the majority of the playing time in the backcourt. I’m not expecting a repeat of his post-all-star break contract push last season, but grabbing another guy who’s capable of around 1.5 3s and steals this late doesn’t seem like a bad idea.

Round 13, Pick #148
Bonzi Wells

Just a speculation pick here. I know he hasn’t acclimated himself to the Rockets at all yet, and he and Jeff Van Gundy might just never work out. But last year Bonzi showed that he can put up some serious numbers if given the opportunity. And Tracy McGrady is quite likely to miss at least a decent chunk of time at some point in the season. If that time comes when Wells has established himself as a contributing member of the team, he could find himself as the team’s top scoring option behind Yao. We’ll see. Worth a last-round flyer.

So that’s my team. I’ve got some serious issues at center and might have to cut bait on one of those last three guys if someone on the free agent list emerges as a decent option in the middle in the early going. If Fisher and Jones stay on my bench, I’m a little light on 3s, but full seasons from Deron Williams and Kevin Martin should help with that. I feel pretty good about my percentages, with no killers at all except for the Przy at free throws. A couple of solid pickups and I should certainly be in the thick of things. BV will present his team tomorrow.

So I’ve been out of town for the last 10 days, leading right up to the start of the basketball season. And I haven’t just been out of town, but I’ve been completely lacking any sort of e-mail/computer, let alone finding information such as who’s going to win the starting center job for the Wizards. It’s the longest I’ve gone without regular Internet access in years. And while I won’t say it was a great thing, it actually happened at a decent time. Sure, I missed the end of the preseason right before my draft tomorrow night, but since I don’t really care about the preseason, it helped me avoid getting wrapped up in some small story. I’m read through enough to find out about the most important injuries, position battles, etc. I’ll adjust my lists accordingly. But for the most part I’ll stick with what I had before I went away. Anyway, since there’s not much to do before tomorrow’s glorious, glorious start to the season, let’s indulge in some fantasy award prognosticating.

Fantasy MVP

LeBron James
Not really going out on a limb here, but this could be a fantasy season for the ages. I’m not really feeling an Oscar Robertston 30/10/10 thing, but I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see LeBron average 2+ in 3s and steals, which might be even more valuable if he can stay get around 8 boards/assists per game. I’m not basing this on anything more than a hunch, but I have a feeling that Zyrdunas Ilgauskas will have a big drop off this year. He missed 9 games in the last three seasons and got his fat contract – it might be time for him to take some time off this year. If that’s the case, the Cavs can go small and really get out and run more, meaning more numbers for LeBron.

Could Also Be: Elton Brand, Gilbert Arenas
Darkhorse: Andrei Kirilenko

Biggest Bust

Dwight Howard
I’m just not sold on Howard yet. I’m really not. He’s obviously young enough that he’ll make a leap, I’m just not at all sure it will be The Leap. Being both reasonable and optimistic, 70% seems like his absolute peak from the free throw line this year. And he’ll be getting there a ton, so he’s going to do some damage, which is just killer in roto leagues. Other than that, he’s not just ready to be a dominant scorer. He didn’t even average 11 attempts per game last year. His “imminent center eligibility” has many people psyched, and it’s always nice to have a top center, but the center pool is actually fairly deep this year. You should be able to nab two solid ones pretty easily. He’s a complete black hole in 3s, which is fine, but he’s not much better in steals or assists. He’s regularly going ahead of players such as Joe Johnson, Vince Carter and Michael Redd, which just seems a bit silly to me.

Could Also Be: Josh Smith, Brad Miller
Darkhorse: Allen Iverson

Comeback Star

Stephon Marbury
The complete and total disaster in New York last season combined with Marbury’s impeccable consistency throughout his career up to that point has me fairly convinced that he’ll recover very nicely. Not convinced enough to draft him tomorrow night like last year never happened, but I have a sneaking suspicion he’s going to end up on my team (unless BV gets to him first). The Knicks are still a team that doesn’t look to mesh especially well, and the backcourt is plenty crowded, but Marbury is still the clear leader back there. If the Knicks don’t win, they at least want to be entertaining and score a lot, and that’s something Marbury can make happen. Look for Isiah to try to get him back to 40 mpg and for his numbers to rebound almost fully to their norms.

Could Also Be: Amare Stoudemire, Zach Randolph
Darkhorse: Shareef Abdur-Rahim

Not So Comeback Star

Larry Hughes
Hughes wasn’t just injured last year – he was pretty awful when he did play. Things are bound to get better this year, but don’t expect anything particularly close to his contract push season of 04-05 with the Wizards. Hughes has been in the league for eight seasons, and in 04-05 he set career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals and free throws made. Those are five of the eight fantasy categories. He simply won’t do that again. For all the talk about his bad finger – which still isn’t completely healed – affecting his shooting, it’s a convenient excuse for Hughes, who is a 41% shooter on his career. He’s still a decent mid-round pick, but usually you like more 3s from someone who will kill your FG% as much as he does.

Could Also Be: Kenyon Martin, Amare Stoudemire
Darkhorse: Emeka Okafor

Breakout Star

Luol Deng
It might be a subtle breakout, but I think we’ve found the next swingman in the Josh Howard/Tayshaun Prince mold, just with more offense. Deng has put up solid numbers in his first two seasons, but you have to remember that he did that after playing just a single season at Duke. He’s still just 21 years old and should continue to show great improvement. He doesn’t have one particular skill that jumps out to fantasy owners, but that might just help him slide a bit in drafts. He eased up on the 3s last year, but it’s conceivable that he could be come a 1/1/1 player in 3s/steals/blocks, while putting up 16 and 8 with decent percentages. He does still have fickle Scott Skiles, Andres Nocioni and a deep frontcourt in general to deal with, but as a 20-year old he managed to see 33.4 mpg last year – second on the team only to Kirk Hinrich – so that number shouldn’t really go down.

Could Also Be: Channing Frye, Deron Williams
Darkhorse: Kevin Martin

Rookie of the Year

Rudy Gay
Well, at least for fantasy purposes. BV noted recently that Gay was a very solid steals/blocks guy at UConn and that it contined into the preseason. He’s also a dynamic scorer and that will be needed on the Pau-less Grizzlies, who for the first few months won’t have anyone on the roster who averaged even 16 ppg in either of the last two seasons. Gay appears to be blocked in at SF by Mike Miller, but it’s conceivable he could play some PF, especially with the small ball fad sweeping the league. The Grizz will try to grind out victories but will still need to get to at least 90 points or so, and they’ll need Gay to do that. So while it’s his scoring ability that will likely have him out on the floor, it’s his defense that could really endear him to fantasy owners.

Could Also Be: Brandon Roy, Adam Morrison
Darkhorse: Anthony Parker

And just for fun, because I do actually care about the real games too.

Atlantic: New Jersey
Central: Detroit
Southeast: Miami
Other East playoff teams: Cleveland, Chicago, Washington, Indiana, Boston

Southwest: San Antonio
Northwest: Denver
Pacific: Phoenix
Other West playoff teams: Dallas, Houston, LA Lakers, Utah, LA Clippers

Conference Finals: Miami over Cleveland, San Antonio over Phoenix

Finals: San Antonio over Miami

Greetings FantasyBasketblog readers.  It’s great to be back for my second season as a contributing editor at FBB.  I’m so excited, I can practically smell that new technologically advanced Spalding moisture-managing microfiber official NBA game ball.  I can’t wait to see how much the new rock improves my game!
As some of you may recall, I capped off last season with an alternative draft strategy for those of you who compete in head-to-head fantasy hoops leagues.  Emphasis is placed on pursuing players who will help your team win specific categories each and every week, no matter who your opponent, while having a legitimate shot at winning the remaining categories.
Here’s the gist of it: Avoid swingmen at all costs. SGs and SFs simply do not do enough to help your team in weekly H2H matchups. Most G/Fs do not make above average contributions in categories other than points and maybe threes. Resist the temptation to draft the Carmelos, Al Harringtons, and Rip Hamiltons of the league. Instead, aim to dominate four or five out of the eight categories by targeting Point Guards (assists, threes, steals, FT%) and F/Cs (rebounds, blocks, FG%). If you end up with 3 or 4 top PGs and 3 or 4 top F/Cs then you will be primed to dominate assists, threes, steals, and blocks every week while remaining competitive in percentages and rebounds (with the conversely strong/weak contributions from your PGs and big men). The only disadvantage you’d probably be facing each week would be in the points department. Barring any serious injuries to your team or terrible luck, you will win your H2H matchup nearly every week by a score of 5-3, 6-2, or 7-1.
Your first six draft picks should look something like this: PG, PF, PG, C, PG, PF. Swingmen are a dime a dozen with plenty of sleepers available late in drafts anyway. Unlike fantasy baseball where you want to make sure you draft quality players at scarce positions; in fantasy hoops you can still find guys at the end of your draft or off the waiver wire who can be everyday starters at the G/F positions.

The only SG/SFs I wouldn’t discourage you from selecting on draft day would be the obvious super-studs like LeBron, Kobe, Pierce, Ray Allen, and the Matrix.  An argument can also be made for multi-cat contributors like AK-47, Gerald Wallace, Andre Iguodala, and Josh Smith.  If you can get any of them at a good spot in your draft, you should go ahead and fill that required SG/SF slot early on.

The following are the recently updated lists for top point guards and big men according to this “H2H Calibrated” drafting strategy:

Top Point Guards
1. Gilbert Arenas – 24 years old, and the Wizards’ Cap’n keeps getting better.
2. Dwayne Wade – He doesn’t shoot threes, but he’s working on it.  Plus he makes up for it elsewhere.
3. Chris Paul – Will probably be the #1 PG in 2007, especially if he starts dialing from long distance regularly.
4. Jason Kidd – His superior contributions in rebounds and steals bumps him up.
5. Steve Nash – He may dish out a dozen assists a night, but he’s weak in the theft department.  Then again, he did invent the best dance move of the last decade: “The Nash”.  It’s your call.
6. Allen Iverson – Hey, maybe you’ll compete in points after all.  Injury risk makes him a second rounder in my book.
7. Chauncey Billups – Chauncey will be hard-pressed to repeat on a career season.
8. Mike Bibby – Like Billups last year, I expect Sac-town’s veteran PG to max out with career highs this season.  Injury to his shooting hand is a minor concern.
9. Raymond Felton – His post all-star break numbers (17/4/8) were comparable to Paul’s.  His FG% was ugly (39%), but according to BV’s upside-barometer Felton will be “well worth your while” at this point.
10. Kirk Hinrich – Solid all-around game, Hinrich has improved his shooting percentage each season in the league.
11. Jameer Nelson – Why Nelson came off the bench for most of last season, I can’t tell you.  He is a prime sleeper candidate this year leading that young Orlando squad.
12. Jason Terry – Will usually play as the off-guard, limiting his assist numbers.  JT is now comfortable in Avery Johnson’s offense and will give you an advantage in percentages and threes.
13. Speedy Claxton – Do nicknames like “Speedy” stick with players throughout their careers or do they grow out of them? You think that as he gets older we’ll go back to calling him Craig?  Or perhaps “Not quite so Speedy” Claxton?  It’s kinda like Gary Payton… I no longer refer to him as “the Glove,” he’s now  “the Oven Mitt.”  Anyways, Claxton finds himself in an ideal situation with guaranteed minutes in ‘06-07. The veteran ball handler should post career highs with plenty of young talent around him in the ATL.
14. Stephon Marbury – Starbury was a consensus top-5 point guard for years before the disaster in New York last season.  Many are predicting a return to form this year, but I’m not so sure.  He averaged only 0.6 threes per game last season, and there’s still a logjam in the backcourt with Francis, Crawford, Rose, and Robinson, all vying for minutes.  Do you really believe Coach Isaiah Thomas is gonna fix the mess he created as GM?  Me neither, I’ll pass.
15. Baron Davis (he’s lucky to crack the top 15) – Do yourself a favor and let another fantasy owner deal with the headache that is Baron Davis. Yes, he could “make or break” your season, but he’ll more than likely shatter it into a million pieces.  We all know about the health risks, and his percentages are putrid (39FG%, 68FT% last year). No thank you.
16. Deron Williams – Has the skill set to be a top fantasy PG, but the acquisition of Derek Fisher just means more platooning.
17. Luke Ridnour – Won’t score much, but should dish out 8 dimes a night running that Seattle offense.
18. Rafer Alston – He believes he’s one of the best point guards in the league.  I think he’s 18th best.
19. Sam Cassell – My guess is he’ll physically break down before the new year, and the Shaun Livingston era will begin in 2007.  I’d rather draft the youngin’ a few rounds later.
20. T.J. Ford – He’s the best point guard north of the border this season.

Others: Mike James, Mo Williams, Jarrett Jack, Sebastian Telfair, Delonte West

Top BIG Men
1. Kevin Garnett – He’s still KG.
2. Elton Brand – Not only did he win the NBA Sportsmanship Award (for “exemplifying the ideals of sportsmanship on the court: ethical behavior, fair play and integrity”), but the Clips’ PF elevated his game to a whole new level last season.  Great percentages and improvements in points & blocks make Brand a “big man on campus” among big men this year.
3. Dirk Nowitzki – He may have choked hard in last year’s finals, but Dirk proved to be a warrior last season.  He’s still a finesse player, but just don’t call him soft.
4. Yao Ming – With his improvement on offense and fantastic percentages, Yao is the best center-eligible player in the league.  I’m no podiatrist but I am concerned about his chronic foot injuries.  Being a giant doesn’t come without its problems.
5. Tim Duncan – Plagued by nagging injuries last year, T-Dunk should have a rebound of sorts this season.
6. Chris Bosh – Blocks and steals were down a bit last year while he improved everywhere else.  Look for Bosh to put it all together in 2006-07.
7. Jermaine O’Neal – Lackluster FG% for a top PF, plus his health is a concern.  Don’t overbid.
8. Ben Wallace – Will Big Ben’s rebounding and dominant defense transfer to the Windy City? Yes.
9. Brad Miller – Unconventional 7-footer.  Great percentages, but rebounds and defensive cats are down.  Remember when he was a Charlotte Hornet?
10. Amare Stoudemire (higher if healthy) – Why do I get a feeling that his injury is of the Bo Jackson variety?
11. Dwight Howard – Led the league in rebounding last year and is still just 20 years old!  He’s a stud who should push 20 ppg this season, but beware of that terrible FT%.
12. Zydrunas Ilgauskus – No longer injury prone, big Z is a major piece of the Cav’s puzzle.
13. Mehmet Okur – He could continue to improve on his rebounding totals if he cuts back on the hair gel.
14. Chris Kaman – Really figured things out last year.  Can he keep improving? I think so.
15. Rasheed Wallace – ‘sheed and the rest of the Pistons busted out with career bests last season.  I doubt he’ll repeat, and he likely won’t be eligible at center again this year.
16. Marcus Camby – Makes up half of the most fragile frontcourt in the NBA, but is a fantasy warrior when healthy.
17. Carlos Boozer – Big plus in FG%, but Luke Ridnour averaged more blocks per game than Boozer (0.3 to 0.2) last year.
18. Antawn Jamison - Hits the glass like a PF, and the development of his 3-point stroke will make up for the lack of blocks.
19. David West – Career season last year may have been a fluke.  His upside is limited anyway.
20. Pau Gasol – You know what the Spaniard can do when healthy.  He’s due back in January and could pay huge dividends in your fantasy playoffs.
21. Kendrick Perkins – Boards and blocks galore.
22. Andrew Bogut – Should average a double-double and 1.5 blocks.
23. Darko Milicic – Could lead the league in blocks with starter’s minutes.
24. Tyson Chandler – Could average 10 and 12 with 2 blocks on his new squad.
25. Chris Wilcox - Maryland Alum is poised to disappoint.  Note his center-eligibility however.

Others: Charlie Villanueva, Drew Gooden, Nenad Krstic

If you land 7 or 8 of these 45 players (while waiting until the later rounds to grab a SG and SF) you should cruise to the top of the standings and an FBA championship. All that said, there are a handful of PGs and big men that don’t contribute enough in the necessary categories and should be left for other GMs to worry about:

Point Guards to avoid:
Tony Parker – I’ve had enough of his “tear drop” shot.  Plus, he can’t shoot from long range (0.1 threes per game) or from the line (career 69.9%FT).
Steve Francis – Stevie Franchise has always been a little overrated.  He’s a great rebounder, but doesn’t shoot a lot of threes.  Plus, the main drawback is uncertainty about playing time in NY.
Brevin Knight – Allergic to threes and his job security will be in jeopardy this season.
Andre Miller – Can’t shoot from long range, and just plain boring.

Power Forwards to avoid:
Boris Diaw – He may be eligible at every position, but he’ll be overvalued on draft day.  The return of Stoudemire clouds things a bit, and Diaw just doesn’t post typical big man numbers.
Emeka Okafor – Poor percentages and has trouble staying healthy.
Chris Webber – Always an injury risk, plus his FG% and blocks have declined over the years.
Troy Murphy – Often considered a value pick, T-Murph is weak on defense and his FG% is a major liability. His three-point range is NOT enough to compensate.
Zach Randolph - Poor FG%, poor defense, poor attitude, just downright impoverished.

Centers to avoid:
Shaq – Diesel’s FT% (and FT attempts) is so much of a liability that you will never win the category.
Jam Magloire – Poor percentages, mediocre blocked shots, uncertain situation in Portland.
Zaza Pachulia – Poor FG%, weak defensive cats.  Rookie Shelden Williams will also cut into his minutes.
Primoz Brezec –Do you love to pick daisies and daffodils?  Then picking Primoz may be to your liking as well.

Well this is the last you’ll hear from me (probably) before the start of the season.  Tomorrow, PR will have his first “Head to Head’s Up” column of the year, looking at some draft strategies for H2H leagues.  But a lot has happened since the beginning of September, when we started our season previews, so I thought I’d tie up some loose ends and chime in on some recent developments:

On The Injury Front
If there’s one thing that we’re fond of saying, it’s that we’re not doctors, nor do we play them on TV (however, if we did, it would probably more “Scrubs” than “ER” or “House MD”).  So basically, we have no idea how long Mike Bibby or Chris Bosh will be out.  We’re working off of the same information you are.  What I’d suggest is going back and looking at a guy’s injury history.  For example, with Bosh, he’s never missed a ton of time – last year’s 12 games missed were his most ever and that was at the end of the year when they were playing for (and getting) the first pick in the draft.  I’d say he’s OK to draft in the mid-second round.  Bibby has only missed serious time twice in eight years, and if he’s only out two weeks, meaning 5 or 6 games, I wouldn’t move him much down your draft boards. 

Two guys who are of bigger concern are Kobe Bryant and Gerald Wallace.  Kobe is no stranger to missing time, having missed at least 14 games in 5 of the last 7 seasons, and things sound pretty vague regarding his knee.  He hasn’t played all preseason and it’s just been a little too quiet for my liking.  This is your first round pick you’re talking about here, and I’m extremely risk-averse when it comes to first rounders.  Keep a close eye on this, but we may not know anything until the starting lineups are announced on Halloween.  Wallace, meanwhile, is having issues with back spasms.  As Tracy McGrady owners found out last year, back problems don’t just go away.  Wallace has had a history of missing a ton of time (he’s missed about 1/3 of his potential games so far in his career) and this is not good news.  I said earlier that I wouldn’t take Wallace before the 5th round and I stand by that now.

Rookie Watch
One of the few things that preseason games are good for is to evaluate how rookies are shaping up.  Close observers last year would have noticed Chris Paul’s Kidd-esque penchant for rebounds, or Charlie Villanueva’s fascination with the three pointer that he never shot in college.  So what have we seen this year?  Let’s look with Rudy Gay and his ability to produce on defense.  He was a big steals-and-blocks guy at UConn, and those numbers seem to be carrying over to the NBA.  He’s been seeing major minutes and putting together some very versatile stat lines this preseason, and should be a major contributor for the Grizz especially while Gasol is out.  While Brandon Roy is the favorite this year for Fantasy ROY, Gay is a terrific sleeper.

Risk Watch
OK, I’m going to close with this.  We’ve spent a lot of time talking about risk and where and when it’s ok to take a risk.  When in doubt, the best strategy is this: Safety first.  Risky later.  I really don’t like “experts” who participate in 5 or 10 leagues because it really makes risky guys less risky.  If you draft Tracy McGrady in the second round, for example, and he gets hurt, oh well – just move on to your other teams and try to salvage something decent out of that one.  We here at FBB are active participants in just one or two leagues each, and I like to think that most of our readers are the same way.  So when we look at risks, we ask ourselves, “Am I ready for this guy to be injured and totally ruin my chances of winning my fantasy league and thus piss me off for 5 months?”  And the answer – for me, at least – is no.  There’s nothing worse than sitting there in February, with football over, baseball still 2 months away, and having a disaster of a fantasy basketball team.  So only when there are no other options am I going to hinge my fantasy season on a shaky knee or an achy back.  But later in the draft, take those risks – lots of ‘em.  Cut them quick when they don’t pan out, but if you hit on one or two of them your team is going to be tough all year long.  So with that, good luck, and I’ll cya at the start of the season.

101. Jarrett Jack - Great value this late.
102. Bobby Simmons - Very quitely had a decent season last year.
103. Chris Wilcox - Could be overvalued, but still should contribute.
104. Speedy Claxton - He’s just not a 35 mpg kind of guy.
105. Danny Granger - May be a steal here.
106. Jamaal Magloire - Not much positive to say about last year past rebounds.
107. Mike Dunleavy - This will end badly.
108. Rudy Gay - Sleeper for ROY.
109. Shaun Livingston - How much will he play over Cassell?
110. Devin Harris - How much will he play over Johnson?
111. Josh Childress - The time is now for Childress.
112. Delonte West - A reduced role, but how reduced?
113. Stephen Jackson - Bonus if prison league stats count in your league.
114. Shareef Abdur-Rahim -  Proof that Al Harrington won’t maintain value in Indiana.
115. Darko Milicic - Any earlier is asking for trouble.
116. Channing Frye - Too many things have to go right.
117. Carlos Arroyo - A good sleeper this late but have a quick trigger.
118. Jerry Stackhouse - If you’re desperate for scoring.
119. Joel Przybilla - Outta the way, Magloire!
120. Jamal Crawford - We’re still scared away from Knicks.
121. Stromile Swift - Been a sleeper longer than Rip Van Winkle.
122. Nazr Mohammed - My favorite late-round pick.
123. Earl Watson - Probably being used as insipration for Ridnour, but you never know.
124. Udonis Haslem - Boring, but solid.
125. Al Jefferson - Remember when he was supposed to save the Celtics?
126. Earl Boykins - Could see more PT than JR Smith.
127. Jason Williams - Bad knee, slipping stats.
128. Grant Hill - This late, take him and hold your breath.
129. Donyell Marshall - Great value this late.
130. Sebastian Telfair - Worth a shot, but should share time with Rondo.
131. Hidayet Turkoglu - Forgotten about, but still valuable.
132. Martell Webster - Has a better chance of having big value than anyone else at this point.
133. Ryan Gomes - Supposedly could be starting in Boston, but shouldn’t produce much.
134. Ike Diogu - Won’t find enough minutes.
135. Andrea Bargnani - If Bosh gets hurt, look for Andrea to get major minutes.
136. Kenny Thomas - He’s big.
137. Chris Duhon - One injury away from big value.
138. Kendrick Perkins - Nice sleeper this late.
139. Pau Gasol - This should tell you what we think of him this year.
140. Tim Thomas - Disappoinment waiting to happen.
141. Sam Cassell - Being generous to Livingston, not to fantasy owners.
142. Antoine Walker - He’ll be drafted higher than this, but not by us.
143. Randy Foye - Will struggle for minutes.
144. Leandrinho Barbosa - Actually, Jumaine Jones may be a better pick.
145. Marquis Daniels - Conspiracy theory: He framed Stephen Jackson.
146. Jamaal Tinsley - Conspiracy theory: misses half of every year to be on UFO.
147. Damon Stoudamire - Can be had at major discount, but this may reflect his true value.
148. Zaza Pachulia - Stopgap, low upside.
149. Darius Miles - You still have to draft him, right?
150. Brendan Haywood - Only because I REALLY don’t want to type Kwame’s name here.

51. Chris Webber - This late, he’s an OK risk.
52. Emeka Okafor - What’s an Okafor?  For teams that already have a strong C1.
53. Andre Iguodala - There’s always that chance he could break out, but he’s got nice value even if he doesn’t.
54. Antawn Jamison - Could be overvalued based on his strong finish, but this is about right for him.
55. Jameer Nelson - Could (should?) be a top-10 PG.
56. Caron Butler - as solid as a mid-round pick can be.
57. Shaquille O’Neal - Is he really this low?  Yes.
58. Al Harrington - Over-rated, probably.
59. David West - Needs to prove he can establish himself with more weapons around him.
60. Mike Miller - Who else is going to score on the Grizzlies?
61. Chris Kaman - Ugly isn’t a category, but he’s still got plenty of value.
62. Troy Murphy - C-eligibility will be a big boost, if he gets it.
63. Ricky Davis - should be #2 man behind KG on T-Wolves.
64. Tony Parker - Improved FT% could send value skyocketing, if it’s true.
65. Mike James - no longer first option, or even second.
66. Charlie Villanueva - A promising start, but this rating assumes he’ll improve.
67. Rafer Alston - Almost last call for reliable PG’s…
68. Deron Williams - …there’s the last one.
69. Richard Hamilton - Need points?  Here they are!
70. Andrew Bogut - The injury will scare off a lot of folks, but he should be fine pretty soon.
71. Zach Randolph - As long as you know what you’re getting he’s a fine mid-rounder.
72. Cuttino Mobley - At 31, possibly on the down side of his career.
73. Samuel Dalembert - Not dependable enough to be a C1, but a potentially monsterous C2
74. Brandon Roy - Overtaken Morrison as first rookie taken with a stronger preseason.
75. Larry Hughes - a shadow of his former self.
76. Steve Francis - You just can’t let him fall any farther, but there’s no good reason to think he’ll be valuable.
77. Raja Bell - He shouldn’t see the 38 mpg that he saw last year.
78. Wally Szczerbiak - Shhh…last year was his best ever.
79. Corey Maggette - Might struggle for minutes … a constant injury risk.
80. Mo Williams - He could be a steal here.
81. Josh Howard - Remember that huge tier of small forwards?…
82. Morris Peterson - …Well this is where they all go.
83. Adam Morrison - The next Rip Hamilton?
84. Manu Ginobili - He won’t last this long, but here’s where his real value is.
85. Drew Gooden - Across the board drops last year should turn around now that the Cavs are committed to him.
86. Tayshaun Prince - Another safe pick at this point.
87. Nenad Krstic - There have been rumors of threes from Nenad this year, but I’d prefer rebounds.
88. Andres Nocioni - Lots of hype here.
89. TJ Ford - May need to kick up the scoring in Toronto.
90. Eddy Curry - This late, he’s a fine choice as a C2.
91. Eddie Jones - Clear number two behind Mike Miller. Bad for Grizzlies, good for Jones.
92. Smush Parker - Ended up surprisingly OK on the Player Rater.
93. Marvin Williams - Sleeper Alert!
94. Tyson Chandler - Slacker Alert!
95. Kevin Martin - Possible breakout this year.
96. Ben Gordon - Points and threes are nothing to sneeze at.
97. Luke Ridnour - Still waiting for this situation to shake out.
98. Luol Deng - great value this late, if he can find PT.
99. JR Smith - his stock is slipping fast, though.
100. Vladimir Radmanovic - Not a bad risk this late, could find a nice role on other LA team.

So here we go - the overall rankings:

1. LeBron James - highest upside equals highest pick.
2. Shawn Marion - yes, number two.  it’s not an opinion, it’s a fact.
3. Kevin Garnett - Still a lock to finish in the top 5 and play 80 games.
4. Dirk Nowitzki - Fewer holes than Kobe means he gets the higher spot.
5. Kobe Bryant - Could battle LeBron for #1 … also could play 50 games.
6. Gilbert Arenas - East Coast assassin supposedly has a new focus on defense.
7. Elton Brand - Solid as a rock, great to match with a second round guard.
8. Dwyane Wade - In three games where he’s gotten real run this preseason, he’s attempted a total of 8 threes (good) - and only made 2 (bad).
9. Yao Ming - First C, biggest risk in first round.
10. Paul Pierce - Underrated, could be justified as high as 7.
11. Steve Nash - We love us some point guards, and he’s full of targets now.
12. Ray Allen - see Pierce.
13. Chris Paul - Sophomore slump?  We’d guess not.
14. Allen Iverson - How long can he keep it up?
15. Chris Bosh - Could be justified at end of the first round.
16. Andrei Kirilenko - must be paired with a low-risk, high-points player (like Wade).
17. Tim Duncan - he’s a steal this late.
18. Jermaine O’Neal - Injuries are a fact of life here.
19. Vince Carter - Contract year alert!!
20. Chauncey Billups - Will be counted on for major minutes - again.
21. Tracy McGrady - Highest risk/reward of the second round, great value in the third.
22. Jason Kidd - If only he scored more, but his value is sneaky good.
23. Joe Johnson - word on the street is more threes and less assists.  Fine with me.
24. Michael Redd - Solid in the third, but word is he may be scoring a bit less this year.
25. Lamar Odom - Will have his down games, but he’ll make up for it.
26. Carmelo Anthony - Can he improve yet again?
27. Jason Richardson - hard to draft a guy that’s hurt, but he says he’ll be ready opening day.
28. Mike Bibby - possibly a steal in the third.
29. Rashard Lewis - No frills, but solid filler.
30. Gerald Wallace - You feeling lucky?  I’m sorry, but this guy has bust written all over him.
31. Boris Diaw - I’m concerned about how Amare will affect his numbers, but no one else seems to share my concerns.
32. Rasheed Wallace - No longer a C, but should act more like one with Big Ben gone.
33. Ron Artest - Still gotta take a deep breath before drafting him.
34. Dwight Howard - Free throws, Dwight, free throws.  Only 54% in the preseason.
35. Stephon Marbury - Could be a steal here, could be a disaster.
36. Brad Miller - Good to pair with a low-assist PG like Arenas.
37. Amare Stoudamire - Someone will take the plunge before this, though.
38. Marcus Camby - Is he really any different from Amare?  But you’ll get him at least 5-10 picks later.
39. Richard Jefferson - A solid pick here, he gets a little lost in the shuffle.
40. Jason Terry - don’t draft him as a PG, because he’s not going to play like one.
41. Kirk Hinrich - Draft him as a PG and don’t look back.
42. Andre Miller - fine as a PG1, terrific as a PG2.
43. Zydrunas Ilgauskas - Terrific value here, but when will he start slowing down?
44. Ben Wallace - Could be a bust this year.
45. Josh Smith - Better bet to excel than Geral Wallace.
46. Peja Stojakovic - could provide much better value than this, but there are lots of question marks.
47. Raymond Felton - Breakout?  I say yes.
48. Mehmet Okur - I don’t know how this guy stays under the radar but he manages to do it.
49. Carlos Boozer - Not sure he’s an injury risk anymore.
50. Baron Davis - I’m shaking my head as I type his name.

We’ll round out the tiers today and run through some final overall rankings next week. First, some quick thoughts on the preseason. Not on specific players, mind you, just in general. Here are my basic thoughts on interpreting preseason performance:

–For the love of god, don’t let a few games in October dramatically change your outlook on someone. Mike Dunleavy put up 32 points with some nice other numbers the other night. Who cares? He’s still Mike Dunleavy.

–Don’t sweat the minor injuries. We’ve long stressed the myth of the day-to-day injury here on FBB, but it’s different in the preseason, especially with established stars. Most of these guys are ready for the season start and don’t feel like playing at ¾ speed and risking an actual injury.

–The circumstances in which you should pay attention to performance and injuries is when it directly impacts playing time to start the season.

OK, now that we got that out of the way, onto the centers. There’s actually a fairly deep pool of quality centers this year, meaning you have little reason not to have two solid starters. And you should, because once you get past the top 25 or so, the dropoff is steep.

Tier 1
Yao Ming, Chris Bosh, Tim Duncan, Jermaine O’Neal

These are the top guys in the middle and all should be gone within the first two rounds. They all have injury questions, as all except the old man of the bunch missed large chunks of time last year. That said, only O’Neal can really be given the tag of injury prone, but he’s a virtual lock for 20/10/2 and has improved his FG% dramatically over the past couple of seasons.

Tier 2
Brad Miller, Amare Stoudemire, Marcus Camby, Boris Diaw, Ben Wallace, Mehmet Okur, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Carlos Boozer

All of these guys except for Stoudemire finished in the top 42 on the player rater last year. And all of them are guys you can pretty easily talk yourself into taking or at the same time talk yourself out of taking. Miller’s been very consistent and offers a great advantage in assists, but could age in a hurry. Amare’s pros and cons go without saying, as do Camby’s. Ben Wallace might continue his slight decline or be rejuvenated in a new setting. Okur is coming off a career year, which can be a good thing or a bad thing. Ilgauskas seems to be over his injury problems, but barely managed 30 mpg last year. Boozer was as a stud when he came back last year, but he can do it for 82 games and not get into Jerry Sloan’s doghouse?

Tier 3
Chris Kaman, Shaquille O’Neal, Samuel Dalembert, Emeka Okafor

If you play in a weekly H2H league, then Shaq can obviously be a lot higher. In traditional roto leagues, though, it’s just about impossible to have him around. Kaman could find himself in upper tier if he continues to improve on last season’s numbers, but he might just hold steady. Is this the year that Dalembert finally plays strong the whole season? How the hell should we know? As for Okafor, I remain skeptical of his ability to take it to another and stay healthy.

Tier 4
Andrew Bogut, Joel Przybilla, Nenad Krstic, Channing Frye, Tyson Chandler, Kendrick Perkins, Eddy Curry, Chris Wilcox, Darko Milicic, Pau Gasol

A long of younguns in this tier. We probably would have put Bogut in the above tier were it not for his injury. A lot of upside here, but at the same time a lot of potential for disappointment. Some favorites of mine in this tier are Channing Frye and Kendrick Perkins. Darko’s the real question mark here – even if he doesn’t fully develop this year he can still be a massive force in blocks if he fights his way into the starting lineup. Gasol is an obvious x-factor. There are going to be very solid players available through eight rounds, so it’ll be hard to take Gasol before that.

Tier 5
Ike Diogu, Kwame Brown, Zaza Pachulia, Kurt Thomas, Mark Blount, Brendan Haywood, Eddie Griffin, Nazr Mohammed

There are 25 guys listed above, not counting Gasol, so that means these guys should be viewed as bench material in almost all leagues. There’s not too much to like here. Diogu has nice upside but needs to work his way into the rotation. Kwame’s Kwame, and now he’s hurt. Blount, Haywood, Thomas, Mohammed – you only want them for fill-ins. We put Griffin on here for fun. Which of course means the opposite of fun.

Like shooting guard, power forward is a pretty thin tier. Many top power forwards qualify at center, and that’s where they are most likely to be slotted. It seems like the smalls qualify at PG, the bigs qualify at C, the mediums qualify at SF, leaving SG and PF pretty thin.

Tier 1
Dirk Nowitzki, Elton Brand

Two of the top players in the game and two of the most reliable first round draft picks. It’s hard to predict much bigger things than they’ve already done, but that’s fine. Dirk’s percentages were both slightly above his career norms last year, while his steals and blocks saw a significant drop. Something to keep in mind.

Tier 2
Rasheed Wallace, Dwight Howard, Chris Webber

Three very different players in this tier. Wallace lost his center eligibility, but it’s possible he’ll get it back with Ben Wallace gone. He might serve the Pistons better by shooting fewer 3s this year, but fantasy owners hope he keeps gunning. To me, Howard’s season hinges on how many blocks he gets. We know he’ll shoot a high percentage, be a liability from the line, clean up on the glass and increase his scoring a bit. If his block rate recovers he might justify his high draft spot. Webber’s a known commodity at this point, in that we don’t know exactly how many games he’ll play, but that he’ll be good for around 20/10 with bad shooting when he’s out there.

Tier 3
David West, Troy Murphy, Zach Randolph, Drew Gooden

It’s tempting to West in the above tier and it’s possible he shows another leap in production, but as a “percentage player,” he’s not really the type to reach for. Murphy and Randolph (when healthy) are points and boards guys, not much more. We’re big fans of Gooden’s game (we wanted the Wiz to make a run at him in the offseason), but minutes might be a real issue with Anderson (insert your own pronunciation here) around.

Tier 4
Vladimir Radmanovic, Al Jefferson, Stromile Swift, Udonis Haslem, Ryan Gomes, Kenny Thomas

All of these guys will either be starters of first people off the bench, but it’s hard to envision any of them getting much more than 30 mpg. The first three on the list are perennial disappointments (OK, that’s not totally fair to Jefferson yet) and the others are low-upside points/boards guys. Gomes seems to be holding off Jefferson for the starting job, but we’ll see if that lasts the entire year.

Remember that tiny group of shooting guards?  Well I found out where they all went: right here at the small forward group. We’ve got about fifty of these guys to tier up, so let’s get right to it:

Tier One
LeBron James, Shawn Marion, Kevin Garnett
Let me take this opportunity to discuss Shawn Marion and Kevin Garnett.  Marion is currently being taken at 4th overall on average on ESPN drafts.  KG is second.  Some doofus on Rotoworld said that his second pick was easy – whoever was leftover from KG and LeBron.  This just in: SHAWN MARION IS A BETTER FANTASY PLAYER THAN KEVIN GARNETT.  Marion was actually way better than LeBron last year, too, but I could make an argument (and have) that LeBron goes 1 overall.  But don’t let Marion slide behind KG in your draft.

Tier Two
Paul Pierce, Andrei Kirilenko, Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady
This group should all be gone after 20 picks.  Pierce is clearly the class of this group, but AK and McGrady could compete with Pierce if they stay healthy.  If you take TMac or AK, I think that’s pretty much the only risk you should be allowed for the first 7 or 8 rounds of your draft.  Surround them with solid people.

Tier Three
Michael Redd, Lamar Odom, Rashard Lewis, Carmelo Anthony, Ron Artest, Peja Stojakovic, Richard Jefferson
The reason that you take scarcity position guys in the first two rounds is so that you can take super-solid guys like these in the third.  This is what I call a “luxury” pick.  All of these guys are better than Jason Terry or Brad Miller, but if you’ve come out of the first two rounds with no C or PG, you might be inclined to reach for the scarcity pick.  Being able to pass that over for one of these guys is a luxury.

Tier Four
Antawn Jamison, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, Caron Butler, Ricky Davis, Al Harrington, Gerald Wallace, Charlie Villanueva, Shane Battier, Mike Miller, Morris Peterson, Josh Howard, Corey Maggette, Adam Morrison
Now THAT’S what I call a tier!  Some of these guys could go as early as the late third or early fourth, some may fall as far as the seventh or eighth, but they all are pretty much in the same category.  Some might argue that Wallace or Smith should be a tier up, but those people would be wrong.  Everyone’s got their favorites in this group (mine are probably Battier and Maggette), and this is a great place to look for your mid-round sleeper.

Tier Five
Marvin Williams, Andres Nocioni, Eddie Jones, Luol Deng, Tayshaun Prince, Shareef Abdur-Rahim
All of these guys could, theoretically, play to the level of the Tier Four guys, but all of them have question marks and issues.  There are a couple of nice sleepers here and at this point if you’ve drafted solidly you can probably run the risk on Williams or Deng rather than settling for Prince or SAR.

Tier Six
Josh Childress, Hidayet Turkoglu, Wally Sczcerbiak, Stephen Jackson, Antione Walker, Bobby Simmons, Kyle Korver, Donyell Marshall, Danny Granger, Rudy Gay
This is the “wait for it” tier.  If you have to draft these guys as starters, that’s probably not a good thing.  But if you can get one of them for your bench, I’d say go for it.  There are a couple of nice sleepers and a couple of certain disasters, but we like these guys better than the next group.

Tier Seven
Grant Hill, Marquis Daniels, Darius Miles, Hakim Warrick, Mike Dunleavy, Andrea Bargnani
OK, maybe Grant Hill should be in tier six, but only if you can pull the trigger quickly on him when he gets hurt.  The rest of these guys may very well be drafted in the late rounds but it won’t be by us.  They’ll all be more of a headache than they’re worth, and I’ll be happy to let someone else have that headache.