You know, it’s pretty tough to believe that the Pacers managed to win 41 games last year, even in the weak Eastern Conference.  Look at their starting five on their Depth Chart going into the year: Jamaal Tinsley (out half the year, ineffective the rest), Jermaine O’Neal (missed 30 games), Jeff Foster (out 19 games), Ron Artest (missed 24 of 42 games before being dealt), and Stephen Jackson (shoots 41% from the floor and is a jerk).  Even their bench was riddled with injuries - Freddie Jones, Austin Croshere, David Harrison, and Scott Pollard all missed significant time.  Maybe we misunderestimated Peja Stojakovic after all.  Really, though, the Pacers were a pretty deep team that was well-coached, and that doesn’t change this year – while Peja, Jones, Croshere and Anthony Johnson all left, they brought in Al Harrington, Marquis Daniels, Darrell Armstrong, Orien Greene, Shawne Williams, James White, Rawle Marshall, Josh Powell … you get the picture.  There are a ton of players on this team.  Which ones will see the minutes?  With this team’s injury history, everyone’s got a chance at value at some point this year …

The Stud: Jermaine O’Neal, FC
The “other” O’Neal had a tough time staying healthy for the second year in a row.  This is a big concern for a guy who has had trouble lately maintaining his value as a second round pick.  On the average player rater he came in at a disappointing 28.  But here’s the thing with O’Neal – he gets most of his value from being a real “plus” guy at center.  There aren’t too many of them.  As an added bonus, he won’t murder you at FT% like a lot of top centers will.  He might not be strong there, but he’s no Tim Duncan either.  Plus, he’ll likely be the starting C for the Pacers, meaning more play inside, meaning a higher FG% and hopefully a return to double-digit rebounds.  O’Neal is going to be taken in the mid-late second round mostly because he’s a center, and you know what?  That’s fine by me.  As much as you want the best player available, coming out of the first two rounds without a strong C is perhaps a concern.  We’ll talk about this more later in the month when we go over our tiers.

The Support: Al Harrington, F
No sir, I don’t like it.  If the “slacker” category hadn’t already been reserved on the Pacers like 4 months ago, Harrington would be in it.  Harrington absolutely maxed out his fantasy potential on the Hawks, where he was the number clear 1A to Joe Johnson’s 1, saw about 37 mpg, and was given every chance to be a star.  It just didn’t happen.  Now he’s got a fat new contract, but he’s also got a lot more competition for shots and playing time.  From a fantasy standpoint, he’s no great shakes – he was in the mid-70’s on the average player rater last year, is a pretty awful FT shooter, and doesn’t block shots.  Throw in the probable drop in PT Harrington is likely to see and the fewer shots, and Big Al may be looking at a triple-digit number on the average player rater this year.  I wouldn’t consider him before the 6th round.

The Supporting Support: Stephen Jackson, GF
This team has more wings than … a bunch of pigeons?  A pilot?  The Hooters Gourmet Chicken Wing Dinner?  Whatever.  The point is, there are about 8 guys on this team who play the 2 or 3 spots.  Jackson, however, is the incumbent, so it’s his spot to lose.  He doesn’t shoot very well, but he’s a nice contributor in both threes and steals, and is a decent pick once you’re looking to fill out your starters, in the eighth or ninth rounds.  I think he’ll contribute as much or maybe even more than Al Harrington this year, and if you can get him three rounds (or more) after Harrington’s gone, good for you.

The Sleeper: Danny Granger, SF
The Lone Granger (eh? eh?) has all the makings of a nice fantasy sleeper.  He contributes a little bit everywhere, saw limited minutes last year, and is probably going to be thrown into the starting lineup this time around.  Project his numbers out to 35 mpg and he’ll give you 11/7 with 1.2 blocks, 1.1 steals, and 0.6 threes.  The question will be if he actually gets to 35 mpg with such a crowded roster.  Still, he’s had a year to improve his game at might be able to put up numbers like that with only 28-30 minutes.  If he lasts into the late rounds, and you can get him on your bench, by all means do it.

The Slacker: Jamaal Tinsley, PG
Like it could be anyone else.  Tinsley is like Baron Davis without the talent.  He’s a consistent threat to miss thirty games.  He is horrific both from the field and from the stripe.  The PG spot is just as crowded as everywhere else on the Pacers, as Darrell Armstrong, Sarunas Jasikevicius and even Orien Greene are there to pick up Tinsley’s slack.  Tinsley has been a complete bear to deal with from a fantasy perspective for three years running, and I’m sure I don’t have to remind you of our saying about getting fooled.  Don’t let it happen again.

Double Dribbles: New uniform, but the same story for Marquis Daniels – he’ll work hard to take away fantasy value from guys like Granger and Jackson while not doing enough himself to warrant a roster spot … Jeff Foster is a great rebounder but does absolutely nothing else for your team.  He’s not worth drafting unless you’re totally desperate for rebounds at the end of the draft … Darrell Armstrong was added for his “veteran leadership,” which unfortunately is not a fantasy category … Sarunas Jasikevicius really struggled last year – he’s just not a true PG, and he doesn’t have the size to play the 2 guard.  That doesn’t mean I won’t be rooting for him, though…