The Bucks tried their best to slip out of the Eastern Conference playoffs last year, and nearly pulled it off, losing 6 of their last 9 games and finishing at 40-42.  They were the only sub-.500 team in the playoffs, didn’t belong, and graciously bowed out to the Pistons in five games.  This year, they’ve got plenty of reason for hope.  Their retooled roster features a front line that consists of arguably the two best non-CP3 rookies of last year.  They’ve got one of the best pure shooters in the game, and they’ve got a nice cast of role players to fill out the roster.  And, of course, they’ve got FBB favorite Steve Blake, which is never a bad thing.  Ever.  Let’s get on with it:

The Stud: Michael Redd, GF
Redd just keeps on impressing.  Last year he again improved his ppg, which he’s done every single season so far.  He also set a career-high in FT%, and tied a career-high in steals.  He was a spectacular 18/22 on the total/average player rater, played in 80 games, saw 39 minutes, and was everything his owners could have possibly hoped for.  Still, for some reason I’m not convinced he’s a second round pick, and I’m not sure exactly why.  I just look at all the categories that he won’t help in – FG%, boards, assists, and blocks – that’s a lot of weaknesses for your second-best player.  I also am skeptical that he will continue to improve – I’d actually be surprised if he matches all of his numbers from last year, particularly his steals and his threes.  I will say that I was pretty surprised to see Redd as a GF this year, I always thought he was a pure SG, so that bumps up his value a little just because of roster flexibility.  But I can’t advocate playing a guy who gets under 5 boards and virtually no blocks as a forward.  Redd is a top SG though, for sure, and is a great third-round selection.

The Support: Charlie Villanueva, F
Fantasy owners had a love-hate relationship with Villanueva last year.  He started off strong, with 11/6 and strong supplementary stats in November, but then saw his minutes and overall numbers decline over the next two months.  After the All-Star break, though, he was terrific.  He took advantage of being on a decimated Raptors roster and saw 35 mpg, putting up 14/8 with 1.1 threes, .8 steals and .8 blocks, and basically helping out everywhere.  The end result looked pretty good, but the problem with Villanueva was he was so off-and-on.  For example, his 48-point effort against these very Milwaukee Bucks in March was preceded by two 6-point games, and he was likely on a lot of benches when he exploded.  Some of this might be explained by the fact that he had to play for Sam Mitchell – some of it might be explained simply by the fact that he was a rookie.  Regardless, he’ll be counted on to be the starting PF on the Bucks for the present and the future, and should see at least 30 mpg in this role.  Owners will have to hope he shows some consistency, but he’s a fine mid-late round pick this year.

The Supporting Support: Bobby Simmons, GF
I was already to talk about what a terrible year Simmons had, but you know something?  It really wasn’t too bad after all.  He really struggled with both his game and his health early on, but picked it up after the new year and ended up with respectable if disappointing overall numbers.  He saw drops just about across the board except for in one area – three pointers.  All of a sudden Simmons doubled his output behind the arc to 1.5 3’s per game, and that’s a huge bonus if he keeps it up.  I’d look for Simmons – who is pretty much the only 3 on the team right now – to see at least 35 mpg, and return to his high expectations set with the Clippers two years ago, and actually exceed them if he keeps shooting threes.  He is actually a great value if you can get him in the middle rounds, which you should be able to do.

The Sleeper: Mo Williams, PG
Let’s do a Player A/Player B with two point guards:

Player A: 17.1/3.8 with 2.1 threes and 1.3 steals, 47/80 percentages, 35mpg.
Player B: 14.7/4.2 with 1.5 threes and 1.1 steals, 45/85 percentages, 29.7 mpg.

Pretty similar, right?  The first one is Jason Terry, who is likely going to be taken in the 4th round or so in your draft.  The second is Williams before he hurt his ankle last year.  He’ll be available well after the fourth round.  One of the big concerns for Williams is supposedly going to be his playing time, but I’m not buying it.  Listen, as much as we like Steve Blake, he is just not going to see the same minutes that TJ Ford saw last year.  And Charlie Bell is a nice guy but he’s also going to be backing up Michael Redd at the 2.  Williams has been promised the starting gig and should see close to 35 mpg.  Keep an eye on how things develop in camp, but as long as he holds on to that spot, he’s a fantastic sleeper this year.

The Slacker: Andrew Bogut, C
Here’s the problem with Bogut – I’m just not convinced he’s ready to make the leap this year.  He’s no better than a third or fourth option on offense at best, and he doesn’t do enough outside of that to warrant a high pick.  Let’s say he sees maybe 5 or 6 more mpg this year, up to 34 or so.  And let’s give him the benefit of the doubt that he’ll do some improving on his per-minute averages as well.  Let’s say he gets maybe a 25% bump on all his stats across the board.  That puts him around 12.5 points, 9 boards, 1 block, .8 steals.  Is that really all that good?  It’s kinda like Chris Kaman last year, only with fewer blocks (and a much worse FT%).  Bogut is worth drafting for sure, and will have his moments, but I don’t think he’s anywhere near a C1 yet.

Double Dribbles: Ruben Patterson will be a solid reserve and should something happen to the starting wingmen he should have value if only for his steals, but he’s not draftable at this point … Blake will need 35 mpg in order to have any value.  Williams does have a history of injuries, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities, but again, he’s not draftable … Dan Gadzuric had a down year last year, but he’s still carved out a nice role for himself as a shot-blocking backup center.  He doesn’t belong on a roster though … Brian Skinner and Ha-Seung Jin had no value last year backing up Theo Ratliff and Joel Przybilla, so there’s not reason to think they’ll have value backing up Bogut and Gadzuric … I’m not sure where exactly Charlie Bell came from or why people think he’ll take minutes away from Mo Williams this year.  He’s an 11th man on this team and nothing more, in all likelihood.