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Team Preview: Orlando Magic

This is going to be an interesting team.  Their starting lineup consists of two potential breakouts, a broken down ex-star, and two role players.  Their bench has the biggest draft flop since 2001, the most disappointing Puerto Rican since Peter John Ramos, and JJ Redick.  This season could really go in about 50 different ways, and it’s tough to say which way is most likely.  So much of their wing production depends on the health of Grant Hill, which is obviously completely unpredictable, and so much of their other production depends on the development of their youngsters.  There are definitely some gems to be unearthed if you can guess correctly.  Let’s see if we can help:

The Stud: Dwight Howard, PF
It’s tough for a second-year guy to be the second-leading rebounder in the league and still be somewhat disappointing, but that might have been the case for Howard last year.  He didn’t score much more than he had his rookie year, saw a dip in blocks, and saw a horrendous fall in FT%.  In fact, he was only a “plus” on the player rater in three categories – boards, blocks, and FG%.  Still, when you excel in a category as much as Howard did in boards, you’re going to be a pretty good performer, and that was the case as he came in at 39/47 on the total/average player rater.  You’ve gotta think that Howard will improve his game this year.  It’s his third year, and he’s still only 20 years old, so he’s got a nice chance to really be a breakout player this season. If you can break out after already being a top-50 guy, the sky is the limit.  He’s also pretty low-risk.  You can go ahead and take him in the third round and feel pretty good about it.

The Support: Jameer Nelson, PG
What’s not to like?  Nelson is going to be the starting PG for the Magic and should see around 30 mpg.  At an absolute minimum, he’s going to put up something close to 15 and 5 with a steal, a three, and nice FG% for a PG.  It’s not unreasonable to think that he could actually end up closer to 18 and 7 with 1.5 threes and steals.  Nelson is an injury risk, but it’s too early in his career for that to be a trend.  He doesn’t have the name that other mid-round point guards have, like Tony Parker or Mike James, but he should be more valuable for your fantasy team, and that’s all that matters.  He’s a top PG2, and realistically could be a passable PG1.

The Supporting Support: Grant Hill, SF
He’s certainly not a sleeper, and you can’t really expect much of anything out of him so he can’t be a slacker, but Hill should be drafted.  When he’s healthy (quit your laughing), Hill still has plenty of value.  In the final few rounds, when you’re drafting guys that you could very well be dropping in a week, why not draft Hill?  Play him until he hurts himself, then drop him.  If you have a short leash and don’t let yourself get bogged down in Hill’s injury problems, and if you can get him late enough in the draft, he can be a nice addition to your squad.

The Sleeper: JJ Redick
Here’s what’s working in J.J.’s favor: Grant Hill is expected to be the starting shooting guard for the Magic.  Grant Hill will inevitably get hurt.  When that happens, the spot will be Redick’s to lose.  Even without that happening, I think Hill will take away a significant chunk of Hedo Turkolgu’s minutes at SF, opening up more time for Redick.  The other thing going for Redick is that his perceived value is really low right now, based on his bad back, so you’ll be able to get him late enough that you won’t have to pass up good talent for him.  With minutes, he should contribute in points, threes, and FT%, but you may not get much else.  Still, he’s got just as good a chance of succeeding as the next guy on this list – but you will probably be able to get him much later.

The Slacker:  Darko Milicic, FC
I had Darko pegged as my sleeper here for awhile, but now I’m reversing course, flip flopping, losing my will, whatever.  For sure, Milcic looks like a blocks machine, but where else will his value come from?  He doesn’t appear to be a starter, sitting behind Tony Battie, and he will likely struggle to see much more than the 20 mpg he got last year.  I’m not suggesting that Milicic shouldn’t be drafted or that he won’t have any value this year.  He could very well end up being a top-60 player when it’s all over.  Putting him as the slacker is more of a cautionary move.  You should not be relying on Darko as even a C2 unless you’ve got a very strong backup for him.  He’s just a HUGE risk, and being in the position of having to scour the wires for a center in mid-December is just not a good spot to be in.  I’d take him as a third center, and nothing more.

Double Dribbles:  Why Tony Battie is starting for this team, I have no idea.  He’s like PJ Brown only worse at everything, if that makes any sense.  He’s got no value … You know that whole “VoRP” stat – Value over Replacement Player?  I’ve always imagined the “replacement player” to be a guy like Hedo Turkoglu.  He’s had some decent value over the past few years and should continue to be a fine mid-late round pick as roster filler, but he’s only a plus in two stats, threes and FT%.  He may see a cut in minutes depending on (again) Grant Hill’s health, but should be similar to what he’s been lately … Keyon Dooling and Trevor Ariza are both interesting players but neither will see the minutes they need to have value.

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2 Responses to “Team Preview: Orlando Magic”

  1. JM Says:

    on D.Howard, I’m curious what player-rater has him at 39/47?

    I checked basketballmonster and he was
    47/71 in 8-category league and
    73/87 in 9-categorsy league (with TOs)

    Thus I vote for Jameer to be the stud on the Magic.

    However, I would boost Howard’s value somewhat to his name/trading value.

    Last year I reached on D.Howard with the last pick in the third. He was really disappointing. Luckily I was able to use his name-value to trade him mid-season (with Rashard) to get Brand and Jefferson, which turned around my season and led to a championship.

    Overall, I feel Howard has become the next fantasy Shaq. His FT% kills you so much that you need to build your team around him. But, he’s not really worth picking in the first couple rounds (which you’d need to do in order to build a team around him).

    Like Shaq, he’s got somewhat more value in H2H, where you can punt a category and still do well.

  2. bv Says:

    JM, that was on ESPN’s player rater. I dunno if i agree with you about the howard-shaq comparison. Howard shot MUCH better from the stripe his rookie campaign – and there’s still time for him to improve.

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