Yes, I saved the worst for last. Ever since we drew divisions, I was dreading writing up the Blazers. It’s like the Knicks but with even less interesting players. The Blazers were horrific last year and didn’t place a single player in the top 100 on the player rater. There doesn’t seem much hope for things to improve this year, unless Zach Randolph rediscovers his 03-04 form, Brandon Roy is even better than people are hoping he is, Jarrett Jack emerges as a legit starting PG and the team’s combination of young and creaky big men offers some production. Yeah, I’m skeptical too. Some people like to look at bad teams as an opportunity to find fantasy gold, since there will be points scored, so somebody has to score them. Last year’s Blazers were a pretty good example of why that theory doesn’t always work. Nobody on this team should be taken in the first half of your draft (unless you have one looong ass draft) and there are really only a few players that are definitely worth drafting at all.
The Stud: Zach Randolph, PF
Yeah yeah, I know. But who else is it going to be, Sergio Rodriguez? We know all the bad stuff about Randolph – his lack of work ethic, the microfracture knee surgery, the annual summer police investigation, not to mention his lack of help in any category except points and boards. But the fact remains that this is an extremely young team with very few established NBA scorers. Randolph is the only player on the roster to ever average more than 15 ppg in a season in the pros. The Blazers don’t have much choice but to rely on Randolph as their offensive centerpiece. Randolph put up one of the emptiest 18 and 8s you’ll ever see last year, shooting just 44 and 71%, and averaging just 0.8 spg, and 0.2 3pg and bpg. The best hope for improvement is in those percentages, with an outside hope of maybe getting up to 0.5 3pg. Randolph has a good jump shot and after attempting just 16 3s in his career coming into last season, he attempted 55 last year. If he takes that sort of leap again, it could lead to a bit more value. Not to be too bullish on Randolph, but he’s going to come relatively cheap, and if you can get a solid points guy who is likely to be his team’s leading scorer in the 7th round or so, there’s nothing too wrong with that.
The Support: Brandon Roy, G
We don’t like rookies too much here at FBB. More than that, I, personally, have a particular distaste for them. Most players in the league have skill sets that are so clearly defined that it just doesn’t pay to take a chance on such a complete unknown in the earlier stages of the draft when you know there’s a more reliable option on the board. The early word out of Blazers camp is that Roy will play multiple positions but might come off the bench. Whatever. Like the dysfunctional Blazers actually have any idea how things will play out more than a few weeks into the season. Roy was excellent in the summer league and everyone seems to think he’s capable of coming in and contributing right away for Portland. Roy seems to be popular as high as a fifth round pick. Maybe he’ll live up to that, but when guys such as Caron Butler, Andre Igoudala or Andre Miller are likely to be there at the same spot, is that really a risk worth taking?
The Supporting Support: Jarrett Jack, PG
Last year the Blazers had Jack, Steve Blake and Sebastian Telfair sharing duties at PG, giving each of them a bit of value at different points in the season, but making for a pretty convoluted situation. They made things a lot clearer this offseason, shipping Blake to Milwaukee and Telfair to Portland. It mostly makes sense, as they were able to get the #7 pick for Telfair, were able to sell high on Blake and still have Jack under a cheap contract for three seasons. Jack had to play shooting guard for much of last year, so there’s reason to expect an improvement in his pedestrian assist rate. But it’s worth remembering that this is the Blazers – the only way you get an assist is if somebody makes a basket, and that won’t happen too often. Jack didn’t show much of a knack for 3s or steals last year, so that means we’re looking at a point guard who might be below average in all three PG categories. Still, he’s the starter, so that makes him worth watching and worth a very late pick.
The Sleeper: Joel Przybilla, C
There seems to be a bit of a logjam in the middle for the Blazers, with Przybilla, Jamaal Magloire and LaMarcus Aldridge all around. You can probably forget about Aldridge for the time being, so that leave Przybilla and Magloire. Magloire is trade bait who won’t be with the team next season, and possibly earlier than that. Przybilla just signed a five-year deal with the Blazers. This doesn’t necessarily mean Przybilla will dominate the PT, but we’d like to think that he’ll at least see the majority of the minutes. He doesn’t need to see much more than 30 minutes to be a decent second center. He hasn’t average even 25 mpg in each of the last two seasons, but that was enough time to average at least 7 boards and 2 blocks per game. Even while missing 26 games last season, Przybilla blocked the 15th most shots in the league. Not bad. He presents more upside than Magloire, so he’s the one worth taking a flyer on.
The Slacker: Darius Miles, SF
We’ve all heard the term “locker room cancer,” but is there such thing as a fantasy cancer? Of course not, but Miles may as well be. One of those players that’s perennially disappointing and frustrating and who makes life miserable for his owners. Throw him in there with the Marko Jarics and Eddie Griffins of the world. Miles was just about as good as he’s ever been last year, and it was still good for just #144 on the average player rater. Then take into account that he missed half the season and still isn’t quite ready … what’s the point? Yes, if healthy he has a chance to be one of the featured scorers on the team. So what? His free throw shooting has deteriorated enough that he’ll do enough harm there to offset whatever modest gains he offers in steals or blocks. Don’t do it.
Double Dribbles: It’s gone downhill fast for Jamaal Magloire. Just a couple of seasons ago he was an all-star who was looking like a consistent 15/10 guy. Now he’s another free throw killer with an extremely limited offensive palette. He remains a top rebounder, but he truly offers nothing else at this point … Raef LaFrentz is running on fumes these days. He’s not capable of mixing it up inside anymore, which means he’s shooting more 3s than ever, but those days of 2+ bpg are long, long gone … Our old buddy Juan Dixon had a sparkling month of January in which he averaged 18.7/2.4/3.5 with 1.3 3s and 1.5 steals on 50% shooting. Other than that he was thoroughly mediocre. His big problem is that he just misses shots. He’s gotten a bit better, setting a new career high with 43.5% last year, but he’s just not suited for a starting role … We can’t say that with certainty about Martell Webster, so the Blazers might see for themselves this year. The rookie had his moments last year and could have been the sleeper instead of Jack, but inconsistency seems likely for the second-year player who won’t turn 20 until December. He has the makings of a future top three-point shooter if things go well … Don’t forget that Dan Dickau averaged 13.2/2.7/5.2 with 1.3 3s just a couple years ago for the Hornets. Last year was basically a lost season for him, so we’ll see if he can regain that form and find any meaningful minutes behind Jack … Travis Outlaw didn’t show much at all, regressing almost across the board in his third season as he saw a bit more playing time. Not a good sign.