Ah, the mock draft. Probably my favorite columns to write. Let’s go over the ground rules:
1. We are drafting for a 12-team league.
2. The mock league has the following lineup: PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, U, U, with 3 bench spots, no IL.
3. This mock league has the standard 8 categories, we are NOT drafting for turnovers.
4. We take turns drafting, first DM, then me. This way we alternate picks for each team. We also give each other input. These are sort-of consensus picks.
5. We DO take into account team needs. If a team is short of guards come the fifth, for example, we’ll give preference to a guard even if we may place him lower in our overall rankings.
6. We DO take into account “general opinion” about a player. For example, if a guy is a generally accepted first round pick, we won’t let him fall to the third round just because we don’t like him.
7. We will only go through six rounds. After six rounds, doing a mock draft doesn’t make a lot of sense because at that point team needs start to really supersede overall rankings.
So we’ll do the first two rounds today, and then we’ll go a round a day for the rest of the week. Ready? Me too:
Round One
Team A: LeBron James
Team B: Shawn Marion
Team C: Kobe Bryant
Team D: Kevin Garnett
Team E: Dirk Nowitzki
Team F: Dwyane Wade
Team G: Elton Brand
Team H: Gilbert Arenas
Team I: Yao Ming
Team J: Paul Pierce
Team K: Ray Allen
Team L: Allen Iverson
OK. Let’s talk about a couple of things here. First, the first big tier drop happens right around the sixth pick in the draft. I’m not ready to put Wade in the same category as the top five guys – in fact, I’ve got the sixth pick in my draft and I’d take Brand before Wade as well. But a lot of folks seem to think he’s worth a top-five pick so we’ll put him at number six ahead of Brand. The top five guys could pretty much go anywhere but I think LBJ will go number one in almost all leagues, and Nowitzki probably will be no higher than four.
The second half of the first round, particularly after Arenas, is filled with guys that I’d feel a lot more comfortable with taking in the second round, and these guys are a serious drop-off from the top eight. Hopefully these late-round teams will be able to make up for the slack in the second round…
Round Two (Previous picks in parentheses):
Team L: Chris Bosh (Iverson)
Team K: Tim Duncan (Allen)
Team J: Steve Nash (Pierce)
Team I: Chris Paul (Ming)
Team H: Andrei Kirilenko (Arenas)
Team G: Vince Carter (Brand)
Team F: Jermaine O’Neal (Wade)
Team E: Tracy McGrady (Nowitzki)
Team D: Jason Kidd (Garnett)
Team C: Amare Stoudemire (Bryant)
Team B: Joe Johnson (Marion)
Team A: Chauncey Billups (LeBron)
Sometimes you’re better off picking late in the first because you can grab two studs to anchor your team, and that’s what happens here as well. There’s a big drop-off at pick 16, right after Chris Paul. The first four guys in this round could all warrant some consideration late in the first, and getting two guys who could be first round picks is always a major bonus. The meat of this round is filled with big-risk, big-reward guys. All of the guys from AK-47 through Amare are major injury risks (granted, Kidd is more an “old” risk, but still) but they can’t fall out of the second, with the possible exception of Amare. All of them are hold-your-breath picks. But you almost HAVE to make them. The next tier drop probably comes right at the end of this round, between Johnson and Billups. I think it’s probably worth considering taking Johnson a little earlier than we have him, but I’d hesitate to pick Billups before someone like T-Mac or Jermaine O’Neal.
As always, comments are welcomed, perhaps more here than elsewhere, because the point of these drafts is to get a good idea of what to expect when your draft day comes around. Tell us we’re wrong, who you’d take higher or lower, etc. Round three comes tomorrow.
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