Ah, the mock draft. Probably my favorite columns to write. Let’s go over the ground rules:
1. We are drafting for a 12-team league.
2. The mock league has the following lineup: PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, U, U, with 3 bench spots, no IL.
3. This mock league has the standard 8 categories, we are NOT drafting for turnovers.
4. We take turns drafting, first DM, then me. This way we alternate picks for each team. We also give each other input. These are sort-of consensus picks.
5. We DO take into account team needs. If a team is short of guards come the fifth, for example, we’ll give preference to a guard even if we may place him lower in our overall rankings.
6. We DO take into account “general opinion†about a player. For example, if a guy is a generally accepted first round pick, we won’t let him fall to the third round just because we don’t like him.
7. We will only go through six rounds. After six rounds, doing a mock draft doesn’t make a lot of sense because at that point team needs start to really supersede overall rankings.
So we’ll do the first two rounds today, and then we’ll go a round a day for the rest of the week. Ready? Me too:
Round One
Team A: LeBron James
Team B: Shawn Marion
Team C: Kobe Bryant
Team D: Kevin Garnett
Team E: Dirk Nowitzki
Team F: Dwyane Wade
Team G: Elton Brand
Team H: Gilbert Arenas
Team I: Yao Ming
Team J: Paul Pierce
Team K: Ray Allen
Team L: Allen Iverson
OK. Let’s talk about a couple of things here. First, the first big tier drop happens right around the sixth pick in the draft. I’m not ready to put Wade in the same category as the top five guys – in fact, I’ve got the sixth pick in my draft and I’d take Brand before Wade as well. But a lot of folks seem to think he’s worth a top-five pick so we’ll put him at number six ahead of Brand. The top five guys could pretty much go anywhere but I think LBJ will go number one in almost all leagues, and Nowitzki probably will be no higher than four.Â
The second half of the first round, particularly after Arenas, is filled with guys that I’d feel a lot more comfortable with taking in the second round, and these guys are a serious drop-off from the top eight. Hopefully these late-round teams will be able to make up for the slack in the second round…
Round Two (Previous picks in parentheses):
Team L: Chris Bosh (Iverson)
Team K: Tim Duncan (Allen)
Team J: Steve Nash (Pierce)
Team I: Chris Paul (Ming)
Team H: Andrei Kirilenko (Arenas)
Team G: Vince Carter (Brand)
Team F: Jermaine O’Neal (Wade)
Team E: Tracy McGrady (Nowitzki)
Team D: Jason Kidd (Garnett)
Team C: Amare Stoudemire (Bryant)
Team B: Joe Johnson (Marion)
Team A: Chauncey Billups (LeBron)
Sometimes you’re better off picking late in the first because you can grab two studs to anchor your team, and that’s what happens here as well. There’s a big drop-off at pick 16, right after Chris Paul. The first four guys in this round could all warrant some consideration late in the first, and getting two guys who could be first round picks is always a major bonus. The meat of this round is filled with big-risk, big-reward guys. All of the guys from AK-47 through Amare are major injury risks (granted, Kidd is more an “old†risk, but still) but they can’t fall out of the second, with the possible exception of Amare. All of them are hold-your-breath picks. But you almost HAVE to make them. The next tier drop probably comes right at the end of this round, between Johnson and Billups. I think it’s probably worth considering taking Johnson a little earlier than we have him, but I’d hesitate to pick Billups before someone like T-Mac or Jermaine O’Neal.
As always, comments are welcomed, perhaps more here than elsewhere, because the point of these drafts is to get a good idea of what to expect when your draft day comes around. Tell us we’re wrong, who you’d take higher or lower, etc. Round three comes tomorrow.
41 Responses to “2006 Fantasy Basketball Mock Draft: Rounds 1, 2”
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October 9th, 2006 at 8:00 am
this is my favorite time of the year! the fantasy basketblog mock draft. the only real mock draft by people who know what theyre talkign about and have probably played the game. for some reason, brandon funston doesnt strike me as a baller
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chris paul has been going about ten consistently in all my drafts. i agree with with yr draft spot though. but expect him to be gone by the end of the first.
i love where you have pierce, why hes been slipping to 14-16 in my drafts is beyond me.
i think the best spot to draft in is about the five spot. youll get a stud and in my case, im taking johson with the 19 pick, you may say thats too early, but i love him having a true PG in claxton feeding him the ball.
another good draft spot is about 11, youll get pierce possibly and then grab duncan on the turn, cant argue with that!
you couldnt be more right about the mid second round, instead of dealing with all those injuries, id rather grab joe johnson. if theres a part of the draft i hate more than rnds 6-8, it would be this years 2nd round. ill be burning the clock down in this round.
October 9th, 2006 at 9:36 am
one more thing, im sure you read this. but as of yesterday amare is having pain in both knees. id avoid at all cost. id rather take brad miller or someone comparable than deal with this story all season.
October 9th, 2006 at 11:05 am
Duncan looks too high to me. He’s an injury and FT killing risk. His career FT is 68%, but it has fluctuated wildly between 59% and 79%. Last year it was 63% w/ 7att/game, which REALLY hurts. personally, I wouldn’t touch him before the mid-third. But I understand you’re “general opinion” groundrule which makes him a high 2nd round pick. And, if he stays healthy and hits 75%FT, than he’d likely finish at first round value.
The mid-2nd round is indeed scary this year. You did a good job of pairing up little guys and big guys for Team H through C’s first 2 picks. Personally, I’d find the risk too high to take O’Neal, McGrady or Stoudamire in the 2nd round. However, the problem (at least for the O’Neal and Stoudamire picks) is coming up with a low-risk big-guy to take. All the solid guys on the board in that range are PG,SG,SF… One otption is to reach for Odom, B.Miller or Rasheed. I’d likely just pick the best (non-inury risk) player avaiable – Billups, J.Johnson, Rashard, Redd or Carmelo, then take a big-guy in 3rd round.
I like Joe Johnson as a late 2nd-rounder. My main question is how much will having Claxton on the team reduce his assists? Interesting related note…last year Johnson was much more valuable in 8-cat than 9-cat leagues, since his TOs were so bad. This year with Claxton at PG his TOs should go down, but his assists should go down too. That would improve his value more in 9-cat leagues than in 8-cat leagues…how much so is hard to know…
October 9th, 2006 at 11:28 am
It’s worth noting that we did this about a week ago, before the latest Amare knee problems surfaced. Have to think we’d move him down lower, and that will be reflected when we do our overall rankings in a couple weeks. You’ll remember that I had Amare labeled as the slacker in the Suns team preview, so this just makes me even more wary of him.
October 9th, 2006 at 12:07 pm
JM…i see what yr saying now with taking redd in the second. i think its a reach, but given whats available, not a bad decision. you could do alot worse than redd in the second. btu redd has always been healthy, and at the least you want productivity and consistency from yr top picks
also a good point about claxton and joe johnson, i knew his ast would be affected, but didnt think about his TO’s.
October 9th, 2006 at 12:59 pm
No way Duncan should go that high… late 2nd early 3rd is where he belongs.
October 9th, 2006 at 4:12 pm
How does the draft shake out if you were drafting a keeper league?
October 10th, 2006 at 5:32 am
I’m not sure that Claxton will affect Joe Johnson all that much. Keep in mind that speedy is injured and may not be ready until opening day.
As for Duncan, I just can’t imagine him falling out of the top two rounds. he supposed to be “in great shape” (yes, we’ve all heard that before), and last year was about as bad as it was gonna get from an averages perspective but he was still a very valuable player.
As for Keepers, it all depends on the rules of your keeper league, but it probably won’t make much of a difference until the later rounds.
October 11th, 2006 at 10:20 pm
[...] Speaking of Mock Drafts, Give Me The Rock is going to publish (very soon, I promise) it’s very own Mock Draft conducted by PMad and Myself. But that’s not all. Our draft is special. Instead of making picks in a void, with teams we’d never have to manage, or engaging is some protracted ages-long pick-by-post affair, we’re going to make our picks, and then make it a competition. We each have 5 teams (it’s a 10-team league), and at the end of the season, we’re going to rank those teams Roto-style and see who the winner is. We’re not quite sure yet whether we’ll go with the overall winner, or the person who has the 5 highest ranking teams, or something else that we haven’t thought of yet, but since the scoring system is in place, the rest is really trivial. The point is, either PMad or I will win, and the other person shall lose. Possibly prizes/punishments include, but are not limited to: [...]
October 12th, 2006 at 10:01 pm
Looks good except I gotta disagree with your statement about the 2nd round drop comming after Chris Paul, right before AK47. AK belongs in that group, with 4 assists, 8 boards, 15 pts, some 3s, plenty steals and thaaat many blocks he’s as good as any of those guys. If we’re talking about a roto league getting that many blocks above the average-good is the equivalent of getting that many points (or any other single cat) above the average-good, like kobe, it just gets looked over cause its blocks..