im liking the way team I is shaping out.

nelson, ming, paul, lewis, jefferson. they need a little more size, but can pick up a solid C2 and PF in the next 4 rounds while continuing to round out that solid backcourt. theyre my favorite team so far, they have a fewest weaknesses in my opinion

team h is staying committed to D.

i dont like them as much as i did before. seems like theyre going overload on descent defensive players but nothing great, a very boaring team outside of the first two picks.

also, i think yr point about team Ks FT% applies here as well. Team H is throwing away the good FT% arenas gives you…kirilenko, artest, howard. but its definantly not on the level as team k. battier is one of the safest picks around, maybe thats what H needed with the capricious artest and oft injured kirilenko

note: i know this draft is based on gen opinion, is that the reason shaq is going this high? this is abotu where hes been going in my drafts. seems a little high to me though.

*boring

sorry, i dont proof read these post.

re: Team K–that’s the point: he’s punting FT%. Taking Shaq ensures that he will finish last in FT%–Shaq will definitively destroy anyone’s FT%…there is no question. But, Ray & Hinrich’s FT% wouldn’t have certainly counterbalanced Duncan + Wallace; there’d be a risk that he’d get mired into the mid/lower tier of FT anyhow. Taking Shaq sets him up to fail in one, but succeed in others: Allen’s 3s will keep him competitive in that category, he has 3 solid points producers, will get decent assists from Hinrich and a passing big man (clearly needs another PG/passing SG, though), and will dominate blocks, rebounds, and FG%. Giving up some points in FT% to achieve dominance in 2-3 is a well-reasoned punt.

Chris:

you are missing the point… a large part of allen’s value is in his FT% - something which is wasted here. The point is why take Ray Ray so high when you are only going to lose the value later by punting FT%… much better to take someone who derives value outside of free throw in the first rounds if you plan on taking shaq in the later rounds.

I would put money on team F right now. Whenever Jermaine O’Neal is your least multidimensional/diverse player after five rounds you should pinch yourself.

Preservation of greatness team F!

Also of note, when talking about “destroying your chances”, people like Shaq/Duncand/B.Wallace are much bigger liabilities for FT% in ROTO than they are in H2H leagues.

With H2H leagues, you may lose that category almost every week, but you’ll certainly win it every once in a wihle when those guys, that usually hurt you, shoot the ball well. It works the same way with FG%.

In an H2H league, you have to go after production…whoever puts the most numbers on the board; this is often tied into the player’s playing time, so I’d monitor that as well, especially with the later picks in the draft.

I don’t like the idea of punting categories, but it is certainly a viable strategy that can work in the right situation.

Unless Al Harrington really steps it up, this might be a bit high for him. He puts up decent point but is not really spectacular anywhere. He percentages aren’t that good, doesn’t shoot that many threes, and is a only a decent rebounder (if you consider him a PF) . Furthermore, he doesn’t get any blocks…ever.

Overall, maybe I see him going in the next round, but I would much rather take someone with more emphasis in the defensive categories or a Caron Butler/Shane Battier is at all available.

I’m looking at both of those guys to be great “sleepers”, in that hopefully one or both of them will slip a bit.

Tim– I think I addressed that point pretty well: even with Ray’s FT%, the additions of Duncan and Gerald Wallace would already diminish any FT category benefits from Ray. You missed my point: he can punt FT and still realize great contribution from Ray Ray, who’s value extends to points and threes as well as FT. The FT is nice, but irrelevant. If a manager wanted to dominate threes, there isn’t a single other as-obvious option.

In addition, as general strategy, you take best available at your draft spot and build on it. I think it’s a little unreasonable to assume that he “knew he’d be taking Shaq in the later rounds.” I assume that Team K didn’t plan to punt at the time he drafted Allen–but when he got Duncan in the second (oh how he’s slipped) and Gerald in the third, I gather he realized that FT% wasn’t something he was gonna win, even with Ray’s 90+%. So why not punt that category and achieve dominance in three others?

Chris and Tim,

take a look at this post I did last year about how to go about punting a category: http://www.fantasybasketblog.net/2006/01/31/how-to-block-punts/

so while at this point punting ft% is an option for Team K, in order to do it right he’s got to trade Ray Allen. And if you’re looking to trade your first round pick before your draft is even finished, I don’t think you can say you drafted very well.

How about punting turn-overs….I am in a league that has turn-overs…any suggestions?
thanks

The best teams have the best players…who have the ball a high amount of the time.

The mark of a good team usually is indicated by the fact that they produce high TO numbers. It helps make the parity in leagues, especially Roto, more bearable.

I lost TOs nearly every week last year but still won my league due to my overall production.

bv: except in a baseball league that tracked Ws and Ls both, and which therefore over-weighted relievers (who’d rarely take the L, would get decent K/ip, and would keep ratios low–winning me 10 points in a majority of categories) I’ve never gone into the first round planning to punt. You take the best available and roll with the strategy as things unfold. You pursue rare stats, like blocks and assists, and be willing give on points, rebounds–even threes to some extent.

I recall reading the punt article–it’s a smart summary of good strategy. But your key point is “the sooner you decide to punt, the more likely you’ll be at succeeding in reaping the benefits.” In that draft, with each incremental addition of a top-quality contributor–first Duncan, then Wallace–it became clear (but not certain) that K wasn’t gonna win full-points in FT%, even with Ray. That doesn’t retroactively make Ray a bad pick–it just means that Ray’s FT% now becomes somewhat dispensable to K’s strategy.

But that doesn’t make Ray overpriced in the first round–K wasn’t paying for the FT% dividend only. K could’ve taken Nash, and given up some 3s and some boards in exchange for apg, or Paul and given up some points and all 3s, or or or. But he took Ray presumably because of his absurd 3s, top-tier 25 ppg, and nice package of 4/4 reb/ast.

When you combine the fact that FT% was already at risk (b/c of Duncan and GW) with a view of who else was on the board when K took Shaq, the emergent decision to punt becomes even more compelling. Still available were Bogut, West, Cvill (though Murphy would’ve made for some interesting alternative strategy)…none of them would pair with Duncan and Wallace to achieve the kind of category dominance in Points, FG%, Rebs, Blks that Shaq delivers to K at that point in the draft. And remember: even WITHOUT Shaq, K would struggle to win FT because of TD and GW.

Acknowledging the likelihood of FT struggles, then deciding to make it an irrelevant certainty outweighed by other dominance, isn’t bad strategy at all. It’s reactive. It’s “the sooner you decide to punt, the more likely you’ll be at succeeding in reaping the benefits.”

Chris,
Agreed, punting works best when you decide earyl (of course i agree, i wrote it!), but you’re missing the other part of my argument - if you’re punting a category, every asset that you have in that category is wasted value.

Just like in baseball, say you’re punting saves - why, then, would you have any closers on your team? Why not trade them for a starter that will provide you more wins and k’s? the saves they get will have zero value for your squad, a 1 in a category is a 1 whether you are JUST behind secon-worst or WAY behind them.

The same holds true for basketball. Allen has a first-round value IF you count free throws. But if you’re punting free throws, whatever benefit he has in FT% is irrelevent to your team. Look at it this way. Take a look at the ESPN average player rater from last year, where allen is 12th with a 6.12 overall. But now, take his FT% value (1.61) and make it a 0.00, because that’s how much value it’s giving your squad. now, he’s at 4.51 overall, putting him at 17 overall just behing Jason Kidd but ahead of Chris Paul. Pretty significant difference, right? That’s not first-round value for Team K anymore.

bv: clearly we could go on forever, and I won’t demand the last word–but (isn’t that always what they say?):

K didn’t know that he was going to punt until he had Duncan…and Wallace….and then saw Shaq still sitting there. When he took Ray it was a bona fide fine decision…and the subsequent events don’t undermine that decision. If he had planned all along to punt, then your argument makes more sense–but you can’t retroactively reduce Ray’s value. At the time the choice was made, Ray was clearly the best on the board. And, regardless of the ESPN rate reduction, Ray still contributes such dominance in 3s that he remains–at the end of the day, after the Duncan, Wallace, Shaq selections–more strategically valuable than Kidd or Paul (or Nash, or or or).

Ray’s multi-cat value illustrates the circumstances under which I might keep closers, even if I were punting Saves: they’ll deliver fairly high k/bb, great ERA and WHIP (and will fit in under innings limits, which certainly prevent an all SP lineup). There may be other middle relievers who offer similar values–like there may be other gunners who get 3s, 25 ppg, and 4/4 rpg/apg (Joe Johnson?)–but there isn’t anything wrong with holding on to (or finding a way to trade for full replacement value) a Ray Ray or K-Rod, even if I’m punting a category that they contribute to.

Your point is well taken: in a transaction-cost free, fluid market, I’d “convert” every last bit of value. But, it’s not a fully fluid market, and the inefficiency of “not-reaping” Ray’s FT value is well counter-balanced by his unequalled 3s, ppg, and unusually high combo of rpg/apg.

Love the site. Obviously.