Like shooting guard, power forward is a pretty thin tier. Many top power forwards qualify at center, and that’s where they are most likely to be slotted. It seems like the smalls qualify at PG, the bigs qualify at C, the mediums qualify at SF, leaving SG and PF pretty thin.

Tier 1
Dirk Nowitzki, Elton Brand

Two of the top players in the game and two of the most reliable first round draft picks. It’s hard to predict much bigger things than they’ve already done, but that’s fine. Dirk’s percentages were both slightly above his career norms last year, while his steals and blocks saw a significant drop. Something to keep in mind.

Tier 2
Rasheed Wallace, Dwight Howard, Chris Webber

Three very different players in this tier. Wallace lost his center eligibility, but it’s possible he’ll get it back with Ben Wallace gone. He might serve the Pistons better by shooting fewer 3s this year, but fantasy owners hope he keeps gunning. To me, Howard’s season hinges on how many blocks he gets. We know he’ll shoot a high percentage, be a liability from the line, clean up on the glass and increase his scoring a bit. If his block rate recovers he might justify his high draft spot. Webber’s a known commodity at this point, in that we don’t know exactly how many games he’ll play, but that he’ll be good for around 20/10 with bad shooting when he’s out there.

Tier 3
David West, Troy Murphy, Zach Randolph, Drew Gooden

It’s tempting to West in the above tier and it’s possible he shows another leap in production, but as a “percentage player,” he’s not really the type to reach for. Murphy and Randolph (when healthy) are points and boards guys, not much more. We’re big fans of Gooden’s game (we wanted the Wiz to make a run at him in the offseason), but minutes might be a real issue with Anderson (insert your own pronunciation here) around.

Tier 4
Vladimir Radmanovic, Al Jefferson, Stromile Swift, Udonis Haslem, Ryan Gomes, Kenny Thomas

All of these guys will either be starters of first people off the bench, but it’s hard to envision any of them getting much more than 30 mpg. The first three on the list are perennial disappointments (OK, that’s not totally fair to Jefferson yet) and the others are low-upside points/boards guys. Gomes seems to be holding off Jefferson for the starting job, but we’ll see if that lasts the entire year.